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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Energy, economic, and environmental analysis of integration of thermal energy storage into district heating systems using waste heat from data centres

Data centres produce waste heat, which can be utilized in district heating systems. However, the mismatch between data centres’ heat supply and district heating systems’ heat demands limits its utilization. Further, high peak loads increase the operation cost of district heating systems. This study aimed to solve these problems by introducing thermal energy storages. A water tank and a borehole thermal energy storage system were selected as the short-term and long-term thermal energy storage, respectively. Energy, economic, and environmental indicators were introduced to evaluate different solutions. The case study was a campus district heating system in Norway. Results showed that the water tank could shave the peak load by 31% and save the annual energy cost by 5%. The payback period was lower than 15 years when the storage efficiency remained higher than 80%. However, it had no obvious benefits in terms of mismatch relieving and CO emissions reduction. In contrast, the borehole thermal energy storage increased the waste heat utilization rate to 96% and reduced the annual CO emissions by 8%. However, the payback period was more than 17 years. These results provide guidelines for the retrofit of district heating systems, where data centres’ waste heat is available.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimize heat prosumers' economic performance under current heating price models by using water tank thermal energy storage

Due to heat prosumers' dual roles of heat producer and heat consumer, the future district heating (DH) systems will become more flexible and competitive. However, the current heating price models have not yet supported the reverse heat supply from prosumers to the central DH system, which means the prosumers would gain no economic benefit from supplying heat to the central DH system. These unidirectional heating price models will reduce interest in prosumers, and thus hinder the promotion of prosumers in DH systems. This study aimed to optimize prosumers' economic performance under the current heating price models by introducing water tank thermal energy storage (WTTES). A dynamic optimization problem was formulated to explore prosumers' economic potentials. The size parameter of WTTESs was swept in prosumers to obtain the optimal storage size considering the trade-off between the payback period and the heating cost saving. The proposed method was tested on a campus DH system in Norway. The results showed that the prosumer's annual heating cost was saved up to 9%, and the investment of WTTES could be recovered in less than ten years. This study could provide guidelines on improving prosumers' economic performance and promote the development of prosumers during the transformation period of DH systems.

Li, H↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ca-isotopes as a robust tracer of magmatic differentiation

The large mass difference (~10%) between the two most abundant isotopes of calcium, 40 Ca and 44 Ca, gives Ca great potential in tracking mass-dependent fractionation during magmatic processes. Resolvable Ca-isotope fractionation during fractional crystallization of magma, particularly by feldspar in evolved melts, has been theoretically inferred but not robustly tested in nature. To further explore the effects of magmatic differentiation on Ca-isotope systematics, we studied the late-Permian alkaline igneous suite of the Øyangen Caldera, Oslo Rift, Norway, consisting of volcanic and intrusive units ranging from basanitic to rhyolitic compositions. Major and trace element variations and modeling demonstrate that the main series of samples (N = 21), including basanites, ring-dyke syenites, and central-dome syenites, likely documents a co-genetic and closed-system fractional crystallization sequence. Our data show minimal δ 44/40 Ca variation (< 0.05 ‰) in the intermediate magma and a marked increase in δ 44/40 Ca in the felsic magma of the Øyangen Caldera (from 0.62 ± 0.02 ‰ to 1.15 ± 0.03 ‰ relative to Ca standard, SRM915a). The systematic increase is best explained by equilibrium isotopic fractionation dominated by alkali feldspar in the fractionating mineral assemblage. This is further supported by strong correlations between δ 44/40 Ca, CaO, and Eu/Eu* in the main-series samples. Implementing a Monte Carlo approach, isotopic modeling of the liquid line of descent using Rayleigh fractionation is highly consistent with the observed Ca-isotope evolution. For the first time, we confirm prominent Ca stable isotope fractionation in felsic-stage differentiation of alkaline magma and constrain the isotope fractionation factors of plagioclase and K-feldspar. Integrated with extant estimations on mineral fractionation factors from the literature, our results suggest increasing fractionation effects of rock-forming minerals with decreasing Ca content. Finally, the affirmation of significant Ca-isotope fractionation in alkaline magma by feldspar empowers the application of Ca as a versatile tracer of crustal evolution, allowing further tests in other magmatic conditions across various planetary objects.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multi-scale dynamic modeling and validation of radial flow fixed bed contactors for post-combustion CO 2 capture using bench scale and pilot plant data

Here, in this work, a multi-scale model of a radial flow fixed bed contactor packed with a carbon sorbent is developed and validated with laboratory-scale and pilot plant scale dynamic data. For the lab scale system, the model results were compared with low, medium and high gas and sweep flowrates, yielding root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.80, 0.63, 0.96 CO 2 mol%, respectively, for the outlet CO 2 concentration profile considering the entire A-D cycle. For the bed outer temperature profile, maximum RMSE was found to be 5.5 °C considering all flowrates and entire A-D cycles. An experimental campaign was developed and applied to a pilot plant at Technology Center Mongstad (TCM), Norway. Approaches were developed for pre-processing of data including consideration of the effect of gas mixing, measurement delay, and determination of cyclic steady-state conditions. Considering profiles during A-D cycles for all test runs, it was found that the maximum RMSE for pressure drop, temperature for the outer section of the bed, temperature for the middle section of the bed, and outlet CO 2 concentration profile remained less than 1.5 mbar, 3.5 °C, 2.8 °C, and 1.3 CO 2 mol%, respectively. The validated model was used to perform sensitivity studies on several key design operating variables for the adsorption-desorption cycle. It was found that the flow rate and concentration of flue gas have dominant nonlinear effects on the breakthrough time while the desorption time was strongly affected by the sweep gas flowrate for the specific sorbent being evaluated in this study.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fundamentals of wildlife dosimetry and lessons learned from a decade of measuring external dose rates in the field

Methods for determining the radiation dose received by exposed biota require major improvements to reduce uncertainties and increase precision. We share our experiences in attempting to quantify external dose rates to free-ranging wildlife using GPS-coupled dosimetry methods. The manuscript is a primer on fundamental concepts in wildlife dosimetry in which the complexities of quantifying dose rates are highlighted, and lessons learned are presented based on research with wild boar and snakes at Fukushima, wolves at Chornobyl, and reindeer in Norway. GPS-coupled dosimeters produced empirical data to which numerical simulations of external dose using computer software were compared. Our data did not support a standing paradigm in risk analyses: Using averaged soil contaminant levels to model external dose rates conservatively overestimate the dose to individuals within a population. Following this paradigm will likely lead to misguided recommendations for risk management. The GPS-dosimetry data also demonstrated the critical importance of how modeled external dose rates are impacted by the scale at which contaminants are mapped. When contaminant mapping scales are coarse even detailed knowledge about each animal’s home range was inadequate to accurately predict external dose rates. Importantly, modeled external dose rates based on a single measurement at a trap site did not correlate to actual dose rates measured on free ranging animals. These findings provide empirical data to support published concerns about inadequate dosimetry in much of the published Chernobyl and Fukushima dose-effects research. Furthermore, our data indicate that a huge portion of that literature should be challenged, and that improper dosimetry remains a significant source of controversy in radiation dose-effect research.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2020

The maximum carboxylation rate of Rubisco affects CO2 refixation in temperate broadleaved forest trees

Mesophyll resistance to CO 2 diffusion (rm) and the maximum carboxylation rate of Rubisco (Vcmax) affect photosynthetic rates, and can potentially also influence the percentage of respiratory and photorespiratory CO 2 being refixated (Pr) by mesophyll cells. Here we investigated how various leaf anatomical traits (e.g. leaf mass per area [LMA] and leaf dry matter content [LDMC]) influenced rm in leaves of mature forest trees. We further explored how rm and Vcmax in turn affected Pr, and if these traits varied among species and leaves along a light gradient. Photosynthetic CO 2 response of leaves grown in high-, medium-, and low-light environments was measured, from Pinus sylvestris [Scots pine], Picea abies [Norway spruce], Quercus robur [English oak], and Betula pendula [Silver birch] in southern Sweden. A modified version of the Farquhar-von Caemmerer-Berry model was fitted to the leaf gas exchange data to estimate Vcmax, rm and Pr. We found that of all leaf traits measured, only LMA for Q. robur was significantly higher in leaves from high-light environments. When comparing species, both rm and LMA were significantly higher in the conifers, and rm had a negative correlation with Vcmax. We found that Pr was similar between different species and functional groups, with an average of 73.2% (and SD of ±10.4) across all species. There was a strong, positive correlation between Pr and Vcmax in broadleaves, and we hypothesise that this effect might derive from a higher CO 2 drawdown near Rubisco in leaves with high Vcmax.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The effects of mixed-species root zones on the resistance of soil bacteria and fungi to long-term experimental and natural reductions in soil moisture

Mixed forest stands tend to be more resistant to drought than species-specific stands partially due to complementarity in root ecology and physiology. For this work, we asked whether complementary differences in the drought resistance of soil microbiomes might contribute to this phenomenon. We experimented on the effects of reduced soil moisture on bacterial and fungal community composition in species-specific (single species) and mixed-species root zones of Norway spruce and European beech forests in a 5-year-old throughfall-exclusion experiment and across seasonal (spring-summer-fall) and latitudinal moisture gradients. Bacteria were most responsive to changes in soil moisture, especially members of Rhizobiales, while fungi were largely unaffected, including ectomycorrhizal fungi (EMF). Community resistance was higher in spruce relative to beech root zones, corresponding with the proportions of drought-favored (more in spruce) and drought-sensitive bacterial taxa (more in beech). The spruce soil microbiome also exhibited greater resistance to seasonal changes between spring (wettest) and fall (driest). Mixed-species root zones contained a hybrid of beech- and spruce-associated microbiomes. Several bacterial populations exhibited either enhanced resistance or greater susceptibility to drought in mixed root zones. Overall, patterns in the relative abundances of soil bacteria closely tracked moisture in seasonal and latitudinal precipitation gradients and were more predictive of soil water content than other environmental variables. We conclude that complementary differences in the drought resistance of soil microbiomes can occur and the likeliest form of complementarity in mixed-root zones coincides with the enrichment of drought-tolerant bacteria associated with spruce and the sustenance of EMF by beech.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Soil compartments (bulk soil, litter, root and rhizosphere) as main drivers of soil protistan communities distribution in forests with different nitrogen deposition

Protists, in particular bacterivores, are essential players in the rhizosphere; thus, how their interactions with bacteria and fungi affect plant productivity and soil nutrient cycles warrants more attention. Using next-generation sequencing of the 18 S rRNA gene, we investigated the distribution of two major protistan phyla, Cercozoa and Endomyxa, across four seasons, and four soil compartments - rhizosphere, root, soil and litter. The sampling was replicated in two forests in Norway and the Czech Republic, in order to test our results across biogeographic scales. Compartment had a major influence in shaping protistan communities, over and above spatial distance and seasonal variation. Protistan diversity was highest in the bulk soil while lowest in the roots, suggesting that the plants select for restricted assemblages of protists. Accordingly, only the root compartment harboured a subset of the bulk soil protistan diversity. In addition, protistan communities showed markedly different distributions according to their feeding modes, with opposite patterns for bacterivores versus omnivores and eukaryvores. The small bacterivorous flagellates (mostly Glissomonadida) were more abundant in roots, while the larger amoeboid eukaryvores (e.g. some of the Cryomonadida and vampyrellids) dominated in soil and in the rhizosphere, and the omnivores (e.g. Euglyphida and part of the Cercomonadida), also large and mostly amoeboid, were more abundant in litter. The current view of the soil microbiome is mostly focused on bacteria and fungi: this detailed study on the community distribution of protists according to their feeding modes reveals the essential role they play in each of the soil compartments, an essential precondition for a detailed understanding of the soil food web and nutrient cycling in forest.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Lignin Monomers from beyond the Canonical Monolignol Biosynthetic Pathway: Another Brick in the Wall

Lignin is conventionally defined as being formed by the oxidative polymerization of three main monolignols, p-coumaryl alcohol, coniferyl alcohol, and sinapyl alcohol, that are derived from the general phenylpropanoid biosynthetic pathway. Many other phenolic compounds that are also derived from the phenylpropanoid pathway are also known to perform as genuine lignin monomers in many plants, as is the case of the monolignol ester conjugates, phenolic compounds arising from the truncated biosynthesis of monolignols, or ferulate esters. Recent investigations, however, have indicated that phenolic compounds arising from beyond the canonical phenylpropanoid pathway, namely flavonoids, hydroxystilbenes, and hydroxycinnamic amides, may also behave as authentic lignin monomers and are incorporated into the lignin in some plants, further challenging the traditional definition of lignin. This is the case of the flavone tricin that is incorporated into the lignin of grasses and other monocots, the hydroxystilbene piceatannol (together with resveratrol and isorhapontigenin, at lower levels) that has been found in the lignins of palm fruit shells, their respective O-glucosides (astringin, piceid, and isorhapontin) that are present in the lignin of Norway spruce bark, or the ferulic amides feruloyltyramine, incorporated into the lignin of tobacco and potato tubers, and diferuloylputrescine, which appears to be incorporated into maize kernel lignin. These valuable compounds are potentially available in high amounts and at low cost and may be obtained from the waste products from the processing of agricultural or forest biomass.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

On the Role of Macrophysics and Microphysics in Km-Scale Simulations of Mixed-Phase Clouds During Cold Air Outbreaks

Regional atmospheric models struggle to maintain supercooled liquid in mixed-phase clouds during polar cold-air outbreaks (CAOs). Previous studies focused on the parameterization of aerosol, microphysics and turbulence to understand the origin of this widespread model bias. This study investigates the role of sub-grid cloud fraction parameterizations (CFP) in the simulation of mixed-phase cloud. Km-scale simulations are performed for a large number of CAO cases over Norway, for which continuous ground observations were collected at one site over 6 months. We use a novel analysis that attributes the cloud-radiative errors to deficiencies in specific cloud regimes. We show that the CFP matters for cloud-radiative effects in CAOs, but that it is probably not the primary cause of the lack of liquid water in simulated mixed-phase clouds. Of all the CFP sensitivities explored in this study, the prognostic representation of both liquid and ice shows most promise in increasing the liquid water path. A newly proposed hybrid CFP with prognostic frozen and diagnostic liquid cloud fraction reproduces some of the benefits of the prognostic scheme at reduced cost and complexity. All simulations appear to produce too large precipitation particles. As a result, reducing the snow deposition rate increases the liquid water path and improves the precipitation size distributions, while simulations are less sensitive to reduced riming rates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Vertical Structure of Clouds and Precipitation During Arctic Cold–Air Outbreaks and Warm–Air Intrusions: Observations From COMBLE

The Arctic is marked by deep intrusions of warm, moist air, alternating with outbreaks of cold air down to lower latitudes. The typical vertical structure of clouds and precipitation during these two synoptic weather extremes is examined at a coastal site at 69°N in Norway. The Norwegian Sea is a corridor for warm-air intrusions (WAIs) and frequently witnesses cold-air outbreaks (CAOs). This study uses data from profiling radar, lidar, and microwave radiometer, radiosondes and other probes that were collected during the CAOs in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (COMBLE) between 1 December 2019 and 31 May 2020. Marine CAOs are defined in terms of thermal instability relative to the sea surface temperature, and WAIs in terms of equivalent potential temperature stratification between the surface and 850 hPa. Cloud structures in CAOs are convective, driven by strong surface heat fluxes over a long fetch of open water, with cloud tops rarely exceeding 6 km above sea level. The mostly open-cellular convection produces intermittent moderately-heavy precipitation at the observational site, notwithstanding the low precipitable water vapor (PWV). In contrast, WAIs are marked by high values of PWV and integrated vapor transport. Here, WAI clouds are synoptically driven, stratiform, with cloud tops often exceeding 5 km, sometimes layered, and generally producing persistent precipitation that can be heavier than in CAOs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulating Mixed‐Phase Open Cellular Clouds Observed During COMBLE: Evaluation of Parameterized Turbulence Closure

Marine cold-air outbreaks, or CAOs, are airmass transformations whereby relatively cold boundary layer (BL) air is transported over relatively warm water. To more deeply understand BL and mixed-phase cloud properties during CAO conditions, the Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (COMBLE) took place from late 2019 into early 2020. During COMBLE, the U.S. Department of Energy's first Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Mobile Facility (AMF1) was deployed to Andenes, Norway, far downstream (~1,000 km) from the Arctic pack ice. This study examines the two most intense CAOs sampled at the AMF1 site. The observed BL structures are open cellular with high (~3–5 km) and cold (–30 to –50 °C) cloud tops, and they often have pockets of high liquid water paths (LWPs; up to ~1,000 g m –2 ) associated with strong updrafts and enhanced turbulence. We use a high-resolution mesoscale model to explore how well four turbulence closure methods represent open cellular clouds. After applying a radar simulator to model outputs for direct evaluation, cloud top properties agree well with AMF1 observations (within ~10%), but radar reflectivity and LWP agreement is more variable. Results suggest that the turbulent Prandtl number may play an important role for the simulated BL and cloud properties. All simulations produce enhanced precipitation rates that are well-correlated with a cloud transition. Finally, the eddy-diffusivity/mass-flux approach produces the deepest cloud layer and therefore the largest and most coherent cellular structures. Furthermore, we recommend the use of a non-local turbulence closure approach to better capture turbulent processes in intense CAOs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Electron tomography unravels new insights into fiber cell wall nanostructure; exploring 3D macromolecular biopolymeric nano-architecture of spruce fiber secondary walls

Lignocellulose biomass has a tremendous potential as renewable biomaterials for fostering the “bio-based society” and circular bioeconomy paradigm. It requires efficient use and breakdown of fiber cell walls containing mainly cellulose, hemicellulose and lignin biopolymers. Despite their great importance, there is an extensive debate on the true structure of fiber walls and knowledge on the macromolecular nano-organization is limited and remains elusive in 3D. We employed dual-axis electron tomography that allows visualization of previously unseen 3D macromolecular organization/biopolymeric nano-architecture of the secondary S2 layer of Norway spruce fiber wall. Unprecedented 3D nano-structural details with novel insights into cellulose microfibrils (~2 nm diameter), macrofibrils, nano-pore network and cell wall chemistry (volume %) across the S2 were explored and quantified including simulation of structure related permeability. Matrix polymer association with cellulose varied between microfibrils and macrofibrils with lignin directly associated with MFs. Simulated bio-nano-mechanical properties revealed stress distribution within the S2 and showed similar properties between the idealized 3D model and the native S2 (actual tomogram). Present work has great potential for significant advancements in lignocellulose research on nano-scale understanding of cell wall assembly/disassembly processes leading to more efficient industrial processes of functionalization, valorization and target modification technologies.

3-D reconstruction↗
DOE OSTI2024

Electric light-duty vehicles have decarbonization potential but may not reduce other environmental problems

Electric vehicles are promoted as ‘clean’ technologies and offer promising reductions in transportation emissions. Nevertheless, their environmental benefits critically depend on the local electricity grid mix and the type of emission being considered. Here, we conduct a comparative life cycle assessment of the four dominant light-duty vehicle categories at both the global scale and in three representative countries: Norway, the US, and China. By analyzing different environmental indicators, particularly global warming potential and respiratory effects, and quantifying related parametric uncertainties, we reveal that the advantages of electric vehicles vary across these regions and across environmental impact types. While electric vehicles offer considerable decarbonization potential as the grid mix becomes cleaner, they might not mitigate other environmental impacts, such as increased respiratory effects on rural, low-income communities. Our results support stakeholders in identifying environmentally friendly vehicle and policy options while considering multiple factors, and emphasize the importance of tailored approaches over one-size-fits-all solutions in sustainable transportation.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reliability-based hull geometry optimisation of a point-absorber wave energy converter with power take-off structural reliability objectives

Recent studies have focused on optimising wave energy converter (WEC) designs, maximising their power performance and techno-economic feasibility. Reliability has yet to be fully considered in these formulations, despite its impact on cost and performance. In this study, this gap is addressed by developing a reliability-based design optimisation framework for WEC hull geometries to explore the trade-off between power performance and power take-off (PTO) system damage equivalent loading (DEL). Optimised hull geometries for two sites are considered (from the centre of the North Sea and off the west coast of Norway), and two directions of motions (heave and surge). Results indicate that site characteristics affect the potential power production and DEL for an optimal WEC design. These are also affected by the direction of motion for power extraction, which also significantly changes optimal hull shape characteristics. Optimal surging WEC designs have edges facing oncoming wave directions, while heaving WECs have pointed bottoms, both to streamline movement. Larger, more convex WECs result in greater power production and DEL, while smaller, more concave WECs result in lesser power production and DEL. These findings underline the importance of considering WEC hull geometry in early design processes to optimise cost, power production, and reliability.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2021

Arctic soil patterns analogous to fluid instabilities

Significance Slow-moving arctic soils form patterns resembling those found in common fluids, such as paint and cake icing drips. Inspired by fluid instabilities, we develop a conceptual model for soil patterns and use mathematical analysis to predict their wavelength. In particular, we propose that soil patterns arise due to competition between gravity and cohesion or the “stickiness” of soil grains. We compare our theoretical predictions with a dataset of soil features from Norway, finding that soil patterns are controlled by fluid-like properties as well as climate. Our work provides a physical explanation for a common pattern on both Earth and Mars, with implications for our understanding of landscapes and complex materials composed of both granular and fluid components.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Document-Based Nuclear Archaeology

Deeper reductions in the nuclear arsenals will require better understanding of historic fissile material management and production. The concept of “nuclear archaeology” has been considered since the 1990s to provide the tools and methods to develop independent production estimates, primarily based on nuclear forensic techniques. Here, we propose to add a framework for reconstructing the history of a nuclear program that complements traditional nuclear archaeology techniques by examining the role of operating records to support such an effort. As a test case, we use the JEEP II reactor, a 2 MW civilian research reactor at Norway’s Institute for Energy Technology (IFE), in operation for more than fifty years, however, recently shut down permanently. We have collected, analyzed, and started to preserve the reactor’s operating records, which exist on both analog and digital media, and to simulate parts of its history using OpenMC/ONIX neutronics calculations. Here, a particular focus of this project has been on digital data curation and preservation to confirm and maintain the integrity, authenticity, and provenance of these records. In developing guidelines for best practices that conform to existing standards for long-term digital preservation and curation, we hope this project can help lay the basis for future nuclear archaeology efforts to support nuclear arms control and disarmament.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2022

Process-based climate change assessment for European winds using EURO-CORDEX and global models

Wind energy is an important pillar of decarbonization strategies and potentially vulnerable to climate change. Existing wind climate change assessments rely on climate models but a systematic investigation of the global-to-regional climate modeling chain is missing. In this study, I highlight key limitations, namely (a) the differing representation of land use change in global and regional climate models which compromises comparability, and (b) the consistency of large-scale features along the global-to-regional climate modeling chain. To this end, I analyze the large European Coordinated Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) ensemble (rcp85: N = 49; rcp45: N= 18; rcp26: N = 22) along with the driving global models (rcp85: N = 7; rcp45: N = 5; rcp26: N = 7), finding evidence that climate change reduces mean wind speeds by up to -0.8 ms -1 (offshore) and -0.3 ms -1 (onshore). I provide physical explanations for these changes by identifying two key drivers. First, onshore wind speeds drop in the driving global models in regions and scenarios with strong land use change but show no drop in EURO-CORDEX where land use is held constant. Second, offshore wind reductions follow decreases in the equator-to-pole temperature gradient remarkably well with correlations reaching around 0.9 in resource-rich European countries like Ireland, the United Kingdom and Norway, implying that arctic amplification is a severe risk for European offshore wind energy. My results suggest that earlier conclusions of negligible climate change impacts on wind energy might be premature if either land use changes strongly or polar amplification is at or above the range sampled in global climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗