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87 records · Page 5

Spectral Unmixing of Vegetation, Soil and Dry Carbon in Arid Regions: Comparing Multispectral and Hyperspectral Observations

Remote sensing of vegetation cover and condition is critically needed to understand the impacts of land use and climate variability in and and semi-arid regions. However, remote sensing of vegetation change in these environments is difficult for several reasons. First, individual plant canopies are typically small and do not reach the spatial scale of typical Landsat-like satellite image pixels. Second, the phenological status and subsequent dry carbon (or non-photosynthetic) fraction of plant canopies varies dramatically in both space and time throughout and and semi-arid regions. Detection of only the 'green' part of the vegetation using a metric such as the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) thus yields limited information on the presence and condition of plants in these ecosystems. Monitoring of both photosynthetic vegetation (PV) and non-photosynthetic vegetation (NPV) is needed to understand a range of ecosystem characteristics including vegetation presence, cover and abundance, physiological and biogeochemical functioning, drought severity, fire fuel load, disturbance events and recovery from disturbance.

Asner, Gregory P.↗

Can a Satellite-Derived Estimate of the Fraction of PAR Absorbed by Chlorophyll (FAPAR(sub chl)) Improve Predictions of Light-Use Efficiency and Ecosystem Photosynthesis for a Boreal Aspen Forest?

Gross primary production (GPP) is a key terrestrial ecophysiological process that links atmospheric composition and vegetation processes. Study of GPP is important to global carbon cycles and global warming. One of the most important of these processes, plant photosynthesis, requires solar radiation in the 0.4-0.7 micron range (also known as photosynthetically active radiation or PAR), water, carbon dioxide (CO2), and nutrients. A vegetation canopy is composed primarily of photosynthetically active vegetation (PAV) and non-photosynthetic vegetation (NPV; e.g., senescent foliage, branches and stems). A green leaf is composed of chlorophyll and various proportions of nonphotosynthetic components (e.g., other pigments in the leaf, primary/secondary/tertiary veins, and cell walls). The fraction of PAR absorbed by whole vegetation canopy (FAPAR(sub canopy)) has been widely used in satellite-based Production Efficiency Models to estimate GPP (as a product of FAPAR(sub canopy)x PAR x LUE(sub canopy), where LUE(sub canopy) is light use efficiency at canopy level). However, only the PAR absorbed by chlorophyll (a product of FAPAR(sub chl) x PAR) is used for photosynthesis. Therefore, remote sensing driven biogeochemical models that use FAPAR(sub chl) in estimating GPP (as a product of FAPAR(sub chl x PAR x LUE(sub chl) are more likely to be consistent with plant photosynthesis processes.

Zhang, Qingyuan↗

Nano-Pervaporation Membrane with Heat Exchanger Generates Medical-Grade Water

A nanoporous membrane is used for the pervaporation process in which potable water is maintained, at atmospheric pressure, on the feed side of the membrane. The water enters the non-pervaporation (NPV) membrane device where it is separated into two streams -- retentate water and permeated water. The permeated pure water is removed by applying low vapor pressure on the permeate side to create water vapor before condensation. This permeated water vapor is subsequently condensed by coming in contact with the cool surface of a heat exchanger with heat being recovered through transfer to the feed water stream.

Tsai, Chung-Yi↗

Synegies Between Visible/Near-Infrared Imaging Spectrometry and the Thermal Infrared in an Urban Environment: An Evaluation of the Hyperspectral Infrared Imager (HYSPIRI) Mission

A majority of the human population lives in urban areas and as such, the quality of urban environments is becoming increasingly important to the human population. Furthermore, these areas are major sources of environmental contaminants and sinks of energy and materials. Remote sensing provides an improved understanding of urban areas and their impacts by mapping urban extent, urban composition (vegetation and impervious cover fractions), and urban radiation balance through measures of albedo, emissivity and land surface temperature (LST). Recently, the National Research Council (NRC) completed an assessment of remote sensing needs for the next decade (NRC, 2007), proposing several missions suitable for urban studies, including a visible, near-infrared and shortwave infrared (VSWIR) imaging spectrometer and a multispectral thermal infrared (TIR) instrument called the Hyperspectral Infrared Imagery (HyspIRI). In this talk, we introduce the HyspIRI mission, focusing on potential synergies between VSWIR and TIR data in an urban area. We evaluate potential synergies using an Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) and MODIS-ASTER (MASTER) image pair acquired over Santa Barbara, United States. AVIRIS data were analyzed at their native spatial resolutions (7.5m VSWIR and 15m TIR), and aggregated 60 m spatial resolution similar to HyspIRI. Surface reflectance was calculated using ACORN and a ground reflectance target to remove atmospheric and sensor artifacts. MASTER data were processed to generate estimates of spectral emissivity and LST using Modtran radiative transfer code and the ASTER Temperature Emissivity Separation algorithm. A spectral library of common urban materials, including urban vegetation, roofs and roads was assembled from combined AVIRIS and field-measured reflectance spectra. LST and emissivity were also retrieved from MASTER and reflectance/emissivity spectra for a subset of urban materials were retrieved from co-located MASTER and AVIRIS pixels. Fractions of Impervious, Soil, Green Vegetation (GV) and Non-photosynthetic Vegetation (NPV), were estimated using Multiple Endmember Spectral Mixture Analysis (MESMA) applied to AVIRIS data at 7.5, 15 and 60 m spatial scales. Surface energy parameters, including albedo, vegetation cover fraction, broadband emissivity and LST were also determined for urban and natural land-cover classes in the region. Fractions were validated using 1m digital photography.

Roberts, Dar A.↗

AFC-Enabled Vertical Tail System Integration Study

This document serves as the final report for the SMAAART AFC-Enabled Vertical Tail System Integration Study. Included are the ground rule assumptions which have gone into the study, layouts of the baseline and AFC-enabled configurations, critical sizing information, system requirements and architectures, and assumed system properties that result in an NPV assessment of the two candidate AFC technologies.

Mooney, Helen P.↗

NASA Engineering and Safety Center Technical Bulletin No. 22-04: Uncertainty Quantification of Reduced Order Structural Dynamic Models

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) provides statistical bounds on prediction accuracy based on finite element model (FEM) uncertainty. An alternate method for UQ, called the Hybrid Parametric Variation (HPV) combines a parametric variation of the Hurty/Craig-Bampton (HCB) fixed-interface (FI) modal frequencies with a nonparametric variation (NPV) method. This provides a UQ method that can be traced to test data, which can be updated as additional data and improved correlated models become available.

Uncertainty Quantification↗

M2CT-22IN1202096 Design for Carbon Conversion Product Pathways with Nuclear Power Plant Integration

Coal is a globally abundant resource that historically has been used for power generation via combustion. As the power industry replaces coal with cleaner methods of generation, energy-rich coal could be used in other chemical and fuel applications. This study presents a coal utilization option in which coal combustion is replaced with a carbon-free nuclear power plant and the coal is upgraded to valuable products for a variety of markets. Coal is prepared for conversion first by the pyrolysis process, which will optimize solid, liquid, and gaseous products based on the market size and potential product value, maximizing the monetary value of coal. This process is designed using bituminous coal from the Appalachian region as a basis to provide a pathway to preserve or transition coal-related jobs and create new jobs associated with the clean energy transition. Process modeling in the AspenOne Suite will be used to determine each component’s sensitivities, costs, inputs, and outputs. Dispatch modeling in the FORCE toolset will optimize the entire system and calculate the NPV for the refinery lifetime. Advanced and light-water reactors are considerations to supply the heat, steam, and electricity to the process. This paper focuses on the technical and market analysis used to determine the optimal processes and product pathways for the carbon refinery. Product pathways are on activated carbon, formic acid synthesis, and methanol synthesis for further upgrading to marketable chemical and polymer products.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

FECM/NETL Unconventional Shale Well Economic Model (UShWEM): Description and User’s Manual

FECM/NETL Unconventional Shale Well Economic Model (UShWEM) is an Excel-based model that evaluates the economics of an unconventional shale well on a per-well and per-pad basis. This document serves as the user’s manual for the model with descriptions of the procedures the user must follow to run the model. This document also describes the capabilities of the model and provides the equations that are used by the model to calculate technical quantities and key model outputs including net cash flow, internal rate of return (IRR), net present value (NPV), earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), payout month and year, and breakeven price (for either oil- or gas-wells).

Sheriff, Alana↗

FECM/NETL Unconventional Shale Well Economic Model (UShWEM)

FECM/NETL Unconventional Shale Well Economic Model (UShWEM) is an Excel-based model that evaluates the economics of an unconventional shale well on a per-well and per-pad basis. The model calculates the net cash flow, internal rate of return (IRR), net present value (NPV), earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), payout month and year, and breakeven price (for either oil- or gas-wells). The model can be used to estimate the economics of a well or pad over its lifetime (development through site reclamation) based on (1) the capital and operating costs associated with well/pad development and operations, (2) the revenue associated with oil, gas, and condensate production streams, and (3) accounting for relevant tax policies and asset depreciation applicable for oil and gas operations. The main input for the model is the completion design and production data. Key financial considerations in the model include oil, gas, and condensate market prices, tax-related settings, royalty rates, the discount rate, minimum economic hurdle (IRR) [if performing break-even analysis], and project contingency. The financial consideration can be adjusted to reflect the level of granularity the user requires as input when calculating the economics for a well or pad development. In addition, the model affords users the option to provide their user inputs for all cost categories considered. As a result, the model can be used to generate a multitude of scenario cases for sensitivity analysis of the various financial considerations, as well as production and cost profiles. To make this seamless, the model has the capability for key economic outputs to be exported in large batches through macros-enabled functions on its “Model Output Summary” and “Multi-Well Cost Analysis. The spreadsheet model includes macros and user-defined functions, so the user must enable Excel’s macro capability for the model to function correctly.

Sheriff, Alana↗

M2CT-22IN1202096 Design for Carbon Conversion Product Pathways with Nuclear Power Plant Integration

Coal is a globally abundant resource that historically has been used for power generation via combustion. As the power industry replaces coal with cleaner methods of generation, energy-rich coal could be used in other chemical and fuel applications. This study presents a coal utilization option in which coal combustion is replaced with a carbon-free nuclear power plant and the coal is upgraded to valuable products for a variety of markets. Coal is prepared for conversion first by the pyrolysis process, which will optimize solid, liquid, and gaseous products based on the market size and potential product value, maximizing the monetary value of coal. This process is designed using bituminous coal from the Appalachian region as a basis to provide a pathway to preserve or transition coal-related jobs and create new jobs associated with the clean energy transition. Process modeling in the AspenOne Suite will be used to determine each component’s sensitivities, costs, inputs, and outputs. Dispatch modeling in the FORCE toolset will optimize the entire system and calculate the NPV for the refinery lifetime. Advanced and light-water reactors are considerations to supply the heat, steam, and electricity to the process. This paper focuses on the technical and market analysis used to determine the optimal processes and product pathways for the carbon refinery. Product pathways are on activated carbon, formic acid synthesis, and methanol synthesis for further upgrading to marketable chemical and polymer products.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Quantifying Investment Risk: Analysis of the Purchase Decision of a Nuclear Power Plant (Presentation)

Cost overruns are an ill-fated part of the deployment history of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the United States, and yet studies increasingly show the important role nuclear technologies must play in decarbonizing the U.S. economy. Paradoxically, then, a key piece of a coherent decarbonization strategy depends on attracting investor action to a purchase where historical cost overruns have been sizable. To address this challenge, this study aims to develop a financial model that quantifies the risk of cost overruns in the decision-making process for purchasing advanced reactor concepts. Using the concept of value at risk (VaR), the model is built to evaluate financial risk nuclear construction with the aim to identify risk mitigation strategies. The objective is to identify strategies to mitigate cost-risk challenges and assess the potential reduction in investor risk exposure. This paper presents the initial development and preliminary verification of the financial risk analysis model. The development of this model involved a comprehensive approach to estimating financial risk over the operating life of NPP that stems from construction uncertainties. By utilizing net present value (NPV) with discounted cash flows, the model captures the complex interconnections of project costs, construction timelines, revenue, and uncertainties. Verifying the model involved testing historical data from previous reactor construction projects against the construction project of Vogtle 3 and 4. This paper’s results present the comparison of the preconstruction cost overrun prediction with the current cost estimates from a nearly complete Vogtle 3 and 4.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Quantifying Investment Risk: Analysis of the Purchase Decision of a Nuclear Power Plant

Cost overruns are an ill-fated part of the deployment history of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the United States, and yet studies increasingly show the important role nuclear technologies must play in decarbonizing the U.S. economy. Paradoxically, then, a key piece of a coherent decarbonization strategy depends on attracting investor action to a purchase where historical cost overruns have been sizeable. To address this challenge, this study aims to develop a financial model that quantifies risk of cost overruns in the decision-making process for purchasing advanced reactor concepts. Using the concept of Value at Risk (VaR), the model is built to evaluate financial risk nuclear construction with the aim to identify risk mitigation strategies. The objective is to identify strategies to mitigate cost-risk challenges and to assess the potential reduction in investor risk exposure. The paper presents the initial development and preliminary verification of the financial risk analysis model. The development of this model involved a comprehensive approach to estimating financial risk over the operating life of NPP that stems from construction uncertainties. By utilizing net present value (NPV) with discounted cash flows, the model captures the complex interconnections of project costs, construction timelines, revenue, and uncertainties. Verification of the model involved testing historical data from previous reactor construction projects against the construction project of Vogtle 3 and 4. The results of this paper present the comparison of the preconstruction cost overrun prediction with the current cost estimates from a nearly complete Vogtle 3 and 4.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Techno-Economic Assessment of Data Center Load Demand Powered by Small Modular Reactors and Distributed Energy Resources

The rapid increase in data center energy demand, driven by AI and large-scale data processing, poses significant challenges to global energy infrastructure. Data centers require substantial and reliable energy for continuous operations and high-performance computing. Current electrical grids face issues such as transmission bottlenecks and aging infrastructure, making it difficult to meet these demands. Integrating inverter-based-resources (IBRs) like solar and wind presents both opportunities and challenges due to their intermittent nature. Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) offer a promising solution with their enhanced safety, modularity, reliability, and scalability, providing consistent base load power ideal for data center operations. This study presents a comprehensive techno-economic assessment of powering data center load demand using a combination of SMRs and IBRs with grid-connected and islanded mode. This study utilized Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL) HPC data center hourly load profiles and Xendee microgrid optimization platform to conduct the analysis. In this configuration, SMRs serves as the primary base load power source, consistently providing a steady supply of electricity necessary to meet the minimum load demand of the data center with support from the IBRs. Key performance indicators such as Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE), Net Present Value (NPV) has been calculated to assess the economic feasibility. The findings from this research will underscore the strategic benefits of integrating SMR plant with DERs – particularly for critical infrastructure load such as data centers.

14 - SOLAR ENERGY↗

DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF RISK ANALYSIS TOOLKIT FOR PLANT RESOURCE OPTIMIZATION

This paper presents the development of methods and tools that are being designed to optimize plant operations (e.g., maintenance/replacement schedules and optimal maintenance postures for plant components) in a manner that is more cost effective than current approaches and makes better use of available component health and cost data. These methods include both data- and model-based optimization methods. Model-based optimization methods directly include reliability and cost models to determine an optimal plant operational strategy. We consider gradient-based and evolutionary (based on genetic algorithms) optimization methods. The second class of methods target more specific use cases (e.g., project schedule optimization) and are not based on reliability models directly, but they require specific component reliability and cost data. This class of methods is based on variants of the knapsack problem with an aim to determine an optimal project schedule that maximizes the overall NPV. This paper also presents multi-objective methods designed to identify an optimal maintenance posture based on a Pareto frontier analysis. Rather than dictating the “right” tradeoff (i.e., identify the absolute best posture), we show how it is possible to perform a trade space exploration approach (i.e., identify value and costs of several postures and let the analysis account for desired value and cost metrics). This is performed by identifying maintenance postures that maximize value (e.g., system availability) and minimize operational costs, i.e., the Pareto frontier in a value-cost trade space. For all these methods we present detailed applicative examples that show their validity from a decision-making perspective.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

MOPED: An Alternative Workflow for HERON

MOPED is an alternate workflow to HERON. Preliminary tests display computational advantages of MOPED in terms of run time. While maintaining these advantages, solution convergence remained similar.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗