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At least 91 records · Page 5

Impact of Land Model Calibration on Coupled Land-Atmosphere Prediction

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface heat and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry and wet land surface conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through calibration of the Noah land surface model using the new optimization and uncertainty estimation subsystem in NASA's Land Information System (LIS-OPT/UE). The impact of the calibration on the a) spinup of the land surface used as initial conditions, and b) the simulated heat and moisture states and fluxes of the coupled WRF simulations is then assessed. Changes in ambient weather and land-atmosphere coupling are evaluated along with measures of uncertainty propagation into the forecasts. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, average) is investigated. Results indicate that the offline calibration leads to systematic improvements in land-PBL fluxes and near-surface temperature and humidity, and in the process provide guidance on the questions of what, how, and when to calibrate land surface models for coupled model prediction.

Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.↗

Automated Probabilistic Finite Element Model Calibration Tool Based on Uncertainty Quantification and Machine Learning

Qualification and certification of safety critical parts is a hurdle to the adoption of metallic additively manufactured components for aerospace vehicle applications. Challenges include variability in part properties due to inconsistent defect distribution and microstructure. Understanding of the process through finite element modeling (FEM), and process control through in-situ monitoring, may result in significant improvements; however, solutions useful to manufacturers will require large volumes of data and automated data utilization. Toward this end, a generalizable automated FEM calibration paradigm is developed. This paradigm leverages existing and novel tools from machine learning and uncertainty quantification to enable the automatic calibration of FEMs without requiring prior knowledge of the model performance across input parameter space, including meshing and solver settings, which can require time consuming manual model probing or cause noisy and inconsistent predictions. The result is a probabilistic distribution of calibrated and validated FEM input parameters targeting measured data.

Additive manufacturing model calibration finite el↗

End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock: Methodology and Results of Model Calibration, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification

The United States is embarking on an ambitious transition to a 100% clean energy economy by 2050, which will require improving the flexibility of electric grids. One way to achieve grid flexibility is to shed or shift demand to align with changing grid needs. To facilitate this, it is critical to understand how and when energy is used. High- quality end-use load profiles (EULPs) provide this information, and can help cities, states, and utilities understand the time-sensitive value of energy efficiency, demand response, and distributed energy resources. Publicly available EULPs have traditionally had limited application because of age and incomplete geographic representation (Frick, Eckman, and Goldman 2017; Frick 2019). To help fill this gap, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded a three-year project - End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock - that culminated in the release of a publicly available dataset1 of simulated EULPs representing residential and commercial buildings across the contiguous United States. The motivation for this work is further detailed in a November 2019 report: Market Needs, Use Cases, and Data Gaps (Mims Frick et al. 2019). This Methodology and Results report provides detailed descriptions of how the dataset was developed, intended for an audience of dataset and model users interested in the technical details. These details include descriptions of all of the model improvements made for calibration and the final comparisons to empirical data sources. A companion report, End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock: Applications and Opportunities, will be published subsequently and will describe example applications and considerations for using the dataset, intended for an audience of general dataset users.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Mars Entry Atmospheric Data System Modeling, Calibration, and Error Analysis

The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation (MEDLI)/Mars Entry Atmospheric Data System (MEADS) project installed seven pressure ports through the MSL Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) heatshield to measure heatshield surface pressures during entry. These measured surface pressures are used to generate estimates of atmospheric quantities based on modeled surface pressure distributions. In particular, the quantities to be estimated from the MEADS pressure measurements include the dynamic pressure, angle of attack, and angle of sideslip. This report describes the calibration of the pressure transducers utilized to reconstruct the atmospheric data and associated uncertainty models, pressure modeling and uncertainty analysis, and system performance results. The results indicate that the MEADS pressure measurement system hardware meets the project requirements.

Karlgaard, Christopher D.↗

High-frequency Data Integration for Landscape Model Calibration of Carbon Fluxes Across Diverse Tidal Marshes

Terrestrial Aquatic Interfaces (TAIs), and tidal wetlands in particular, store large amounts of carbon yet are not well represented in Earth System Models (ESMs). Predictions of carbon cycling and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in tidal wetlands are highly uncertain. Eddy covariance (EC) towers provide ecosystem-scale GHG flux data at a temporal resolution (every 30min) that is helpful for parameterizing and improving mechanistic realism in ESMs. We propose to use a network of eddy covariance towers and standardized ancillary data streams, along with mesocosm experiments and statistical analyses, across diverse tidal wetlands of North America to develop and improve biogeochemical modeling at the TAI. Our overarching objective is to improve understanding and process-based modeling of gross primary productivity (GPP) and CH4 emission responses, both non-linear and asynchronous, to stressors including plant inundation, disturbance, salinity and nitrogen loading.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Constrained model calibration of grain structure dependent spall dynamics in shock-loaded tantalum

Here, we perform a gas gun experiment by shock loading tantalum samples of varying grain structures to assess the suitability of a numerical model for simulating spall behavior. The observed differences in spall strength, as well spallation and re-compression history, are not captured in uncalibrated hydrodynamic simulations. An optimization is performed on the Johnson spall model to determine the best parameters that fit the observed trends. Linear stability analysis is employed to motivate bounds on those parameters. Herein, optimized simulations agree well with the experimental results, reproducing pullback depth and recompression timescales across the different samples tested. Further, the observed pullback time of the single crystal sample was found to imply, via the stability analysis, a percolation threshold in good agreement with the theoretical value for a body centered cubic lattice. Therefore, the combined linear stability and percolation analysis shows promise and may be applied to other materials with diverse microstructures. Collectively, the findings demonstrate that the model is suitable for reproducing spall-induced free surface behavior across various microstructures, but also points to caution in using model coefficients for uncalibrated microstructures.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Modelling, calibration, and error analysis of seven-hole pressure probes

This report describes the calibration of a nonnulling, conical, seven-hole pressure probe over a large range of flow onset angles. The calibration procedure is based on the use of differential pressures to determine the three components of velocity. The method allows determination of the flow angle and velocity magnitude to within an average error of 1.0 deg and 1.0 percent, respectively. Greater accuracy can be achieved by using high-quality pressure transducers. Also included is an examination of the factors which limit the use of the probe, a description of the measurement chain, an error analysis, and a typical experimental result. In addition, a new general analytical model of pressure probe behavior is described, and the validity of the model is demonstrated by comparing it with experimentally measured calibration data for a three-hole yaw meter and a seven-hole probe.

Zillac, G. G.↗

DayCent MUVP model calibrated for the simulation of bioenergy crops grown on set-aside land in the US

DayCent MUVP version (Methanogenesis, UV litter degradation and Photosynthesis). DAYCENT is the daily time-step version of the CENTURY biogeochemical model (Parton et al., 1994). DAYCENT simulates fluxes of C and N among the atmosphere, vegetation, and soil (Del Grosso et al., 2001a; Parton et al., 1998). Key submodels include soil water content and temperature by layer, plant production and allocation of net primary production (NPP), decomposition of litter and soil organic matter, mineralization of nutrients, N gas emissions from nitrification and denitrification, and CH4 oxidation in non-saturated soils.

biogeochemical model↗

Flow boiling transient critical heat flux tests with stainless steel and FeCrAl: Transient correlation implementation, model calibration, and sensitivity analysis

In this study, steady-state and transient internal-flow critical heat flux (CHF) experiments were carried out under two flow conditions, at atmospheric pressure, on 316 stainless steel (316-SS) and iron-chromium-aluminum (FeCrAl) tubes. Slow power transients at a low mass flow (300 kg/m 2 - s) with very low subcooling (X e =-0.0054) generated premature CHFs, which were prevented by faster power transients and high mass flow (1000 kg/m 2 - s). The measured transient CHFs increased linearly with increasing power transients, compared with the steady-state CHF. Yet, the wall superheat at the CHFs decreased with faster power transients. Transient CHF correlations highlighting heterogeneous spontaneous nucleation were calibrated to the measured CHFs and compared with other existing correlations. Transient CHF multipliers were acquired from pool and flow boiling empirical CHF correlations that were generated. The multipliers were applied to the RELAP5-3D nuclear system code to analyze the discrepancies between the measured data and the predicted CHF and post-CHF behavior, which improved peak cladding temperature predictions by 24.6%. A variance-based global sensitivity study perturbing the experimental uncertainties and cladding material thermal properties showed the diminishing influence of flow boiling heat transfer with increasing power transients, highlighting the significance of the volumetric heat capacity for the cladding integrity during transients. Transient CHF correlations were applied to the most limiting design basis accident: a hot-zero-power reactivity-initiated accident on a generic pressurized water reactor RELAP5-3D model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Improvements to Calibration Modeling of a Tri-Axial Accelerometer Using Response Surface Methods

Aerodynamic ground test facilities require precision attitude measurements to support fundamental research and aerodynamic vehicle characterization. Accelerometers are used as one solution for measuring test article attitude. Several wind-tunnel facilities experience elevated temperatures during sustained testing of approximately 38°C (100°F) and extremes up to 149°C (300°F). Accelerometer thermal corrections are required to maintain attitude measurement accuracy during elevated temperature tunnel conditions. This manuscript details characterization of non-linear and thermal effects of the Mini/MEMs Tri-Axis Sensor System (MTASS) developed at NASA. Non-linear effects are characterized using a two-axis index head, and temperature effects are characterized using a metallic cube in a thermal chamber. The results show a significant decrease in back-computed residuals for room temperature and elevated temperatures experiments.

Accelerometer↗

Improvements to Calibration Modeling of a Tri-Axial Accelerometer Using Response Surface Methods

Aerodynamic ground test facilities require precision attitude measurements to support fundamental research and aerodynamic vehicle characterization. Accelerometers are used as one solution for measuring test article attitude. Several wind-tunnel facilities experience elevated temperatures during sustained testing of approximately 38°C (100°F) and extremes up to 149°C (300°F). Accelerometer thermal corrections are required to maintain attitude measurement accuracy during elevated temperature tunnel conditions. This manuscript details characterization of non-linear and thermal effects of the Mini/MEMs Tri-Axis Sensor System (MTASS) developed at NASA. Non-linear effects are characterized using a two-axis index head, and temperature effects are characterized using a metallic cube in a thermal chamber. The results show a significant decrease in back-computed residuals for room temperature and elevated temperatures experiments.

Accelerometer↗

Radon-222 Charcoal Canister Steady State Model Calibrations Performed in a Highly Controlled Environmental Chamber and a Natural Indoor Environment

Charcoal canisters are a common method of 222 Rn screening. The calibrations of different batches of activated charcoal used in different canister designs are typically performed in large volume controlled environmental chambers with known and controlled radon concentration, temperature, and humidity. Radon screening could be facilitated in locations without ready access to environmental chambers if canisters could be accurately calibrated and undergo quality control in less controlled environments. This study compares charcoal canister calibrations from a highly controlled radon chamber with calibrations from a basement storage area experiencing temporally varying radon. In addition, the impacts of exposure time and spectral region of interest selection on calibration accuracy are investigated by comparing calibrations calculated using three different choices. Approximately 30 mo after calibrations were completed, groups of canisters were exposed for different durations of time to investigate measurement accuracy and calibration validity over an extended time. A digital simulation of charcoal canister kinetics was also performed to establish limits on how stable radon must be in a space for equilibrium-based calibration to be performed there. Overall, the accuracy of measurements using calibrations from each space differed by less than 10% after 2 d exposure time, showing that carefully controlled conditions are not necessary for the accurate calibration of charcoal canisters. Furthermore, measurement accuracy differed by less than 2% for different spectral region selections. Accuracy improved slightly with canister exposure duration. Simulations suggest that radon instability is most tolerable near the beginning of canister calibration exposures, but this merits further experimental study.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗