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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Vapor and Liquid ( p –ρ– T–x ) Measurements of Binary Refrigerant Blends Containing R-32, R-152a, R-227ea, R-1234yf, and R-1234ze(E)

In this article, The pressure–density–temperature–composition (p–ρ–T–x) data of binary refrigerant mixtures containing R-32 (difluoromethane), R-152a (1,1,-difluoroethane), R-227ea (1,1,1,2,3,3,3-heptafluoropropane), R-1234yf (2,3,3,3-tetrafluoropropene), and R-1234ze(E) (trans-1,3,3,3-tetrafluoropropene) were measured in both the vapor and liquid phases using a two-sinker, magnetic suspension densimeter. The specific samples in this study comprised two compositions of approximately (0.3/0.7) and (0.7/0.3) mole fraction for each of the following four binary refrigerant blends: R-32 + R-1234yf, R-32 + R-1234ze(E), R-1234yf + R-152a, and R-1234ze(E) + R-227ea. Single-phase vapor densities were measured over a temperature range of approximately 253 to 293 K and pressures from 0.05 to 0.98 MPa. Single-phase liquid and supercritical densities were measured over a temperature range of approximately 230 to 400 K and pressures up to 22 MPa; for refrigerant blends containing R-1234yf, the maximum pressure was limited to 14 MPa. Overall relative combined, expanded (k = 2) uncertainties in density ranged from 0.025 to 0.191%, with an average uncertainty of approximately 0.05%. Here, we present measurement results, along with comparisons to available literature data and to default equations of state and mixture models included in REFPROP.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Exploring unsupervised top tagging using Bayesian inference

Recognizing hadronically decaying top-quark jets in a sample of jets, or even its total fraction in the sample, is an important step in many LHC searches for Standard Model and Beyond Standard Model physics as well. Although there exists outstanding top-tagger algorithms, their construction and their expected performance rely on Montecarlo simulations, which may induce potential biases. For these reasons we develop two simple unsupervised top-tagger algorithms based on performing Bayesian inference on a mixture model. In one of them we use as the observed variable a new geometrically-based observable \tilde{A}_{3} A ̃ 3 , and in the other we consider the more traditional \tau_{3}/\tau_{2} τ 3 / τ 2 N N -subjettiness ratio, which yields a better performance. As expected, we find that the unsupervised tagger performance is below existing supervised taggers, reaching expected Area Under Curve AUC \sim 0.80-0.81 ∼ 0.80 − 0.81 and accuracies of about 69% - − 75% in a full range of sample purity. However, these performances are more robust to possible biases in the Montecarlo that their supervised counterparts. Our findings are a step towards exploring and considering simpler and unbiased taggers.

Alvarez, Ezequiel↗
DOE OSTI2022

Scalable probabilistic estimates of electric vehicle charging given observed driver behavior

To prepare for rapid growth in global electric vehicle adoption, grid and policy planners depend on detailed forecasts of future charging demand. In this paper we propose a novel holistic, scalable, probabilistic framework to produce large-scale estimates of electric vehicle charging load for long-term planning that capture real drivers’ charging patterns. Our framework captures the uncertainty and stochasticity in charging demand by taking a graphical modeling approach. It has three core elements: driver groups, charging segment choices, and charging session time and energy requirements. The framework uses hierarchical clustering to group drivers by their charging histories, capturing their heterogeneous behaviors and preferences across different segments or types of charging. The framework uses probabilistic mixture models for each driver group’s sessions to identify the unique charging behaviors observed within each segment. We illustrate its application with a large data set from California, profiling the charging patterns and unique driver clusters it identifies. Using the model knobs representing drivers’ battery capacities, behavior, and segment access we present scenarios for California’s charging demand in 2030 with 8 million passenger electric vehicles. Peak charging demand ranged from 3.3 to 8.7 GW across scenarios. Furthermore, each was calculated in under 45 s on a laptop computer.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Solar Power Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging

There is rising interest in probabilistic forecasting to mitigate risks from solar power uncertainty, but the numerical weather prediction (NWP) ensembles readily available to system operators are often biased and underdispersed. We propose a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) post-processing method suitable for forecasting power from utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) plants at multiple time horizons up to at least the day-ahead timescale. BMA is a kernel dressing technique for NWP ensembles in which the forecast is a weighted sum of member-specific probability density functions. We tailor BMA for utility-scale PV forecasting by modeling power clipping at the AC inverter rating and advance the theory of BMA with a new beta kernel parameterization that accommodates theoretical constraints not previously addressed. BMA is demonstrated for a case study of 11 utility-scale PV plants in Texas, forecasting at hourly resolution for the complete year 2018. BMA's mixture-model approach mitigates underdispersion of the raw ensemble to significantly improve forecast calibration, while consistently outperforming an ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) parametric approach from the literature. At 4-hour lead time, the BMA post-processing achieves continuous ranked probability skill scores of 2--36% over the raw ensemble, with consistent performance at multiple lead times suitable for power system operations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improvement and generalization of ABCD method with Bayesian inference

To find New Physics or to refine our knowledge of the Standard Model at the LHC is an enterprise that involves many factors, such as the capabilities and the performance of the accelerator and detectors, the use and exploitation of the available information, the design of search strategies and observables, as well as the proposal of new models. We focus on the use of the information and pour our effort in re-thinking the usual data-driven ABCD method to improve it and to generalize it using Bayesian Machine Learning techniques and tools. We propose that a dataset consisting of a signal and many backgrounds is well described through a mixture model. Signal, backgrounds and their relative fractions in the sample can be well extracted by exploiting the prior knowledge and the dependence between the different observables at the event-by-event level with Bayesian tools. We show how, in contrast to the ABCD method, one can take advantage of understanding some properties of the different backgrounds and of having more than two independent observables to measure in each event. In addition, instead of regions defined through hard cuts, the Bayesian framework uses the information of continuous distribution to obtain soft-assignments of the events which are statistically more robust. To compare both methods we use a toy problem inspired by pp\to hh\to b\bar b b \bar b p p → h h → b b ‾ b b ‾ , selecting a reduced and simplified number of processes and analysing the flavor of the four jets and the invariant mass of the jet-pairs, modeled with simplified distributions. Taking advantage of all this information, and starting from a combination of biased and agnostic priors, leads us to a very good posterior once we use the Bayesian framework to exploit the data and the mutual information of the observables at the event-by-event level. We show how, in this simplified model, the Bayesian framework outperforms the ABCD method sensitivity in obtaining the signal fraction in scenarios with 1% and 0.5% true signal fractions in the dataset. We also show that the method is robust against the absence of signal. We discuss potential prospects for taking this Bayesian data-driven paradigm into more realistic scenarios.

Alvarez, Ezequiel↗
DOE OSTI2025

Using Neural Networks to Identify Mixture Components in Hyperspectral Reflectance Data

Neural networks have been employed to identify materials of interest from hyperspectral data (generally imagery) based on their unique spectral signatures. This approach assumes that there is a single material that is standing out from the rest of the spectrum to be identified. However, pixels often contain more than one material, or a material of interest may itself be a mixture of multiple materials. Neural networks are only as good as the data used to train them, and it takes a great deal of work in the laboratory to identify, make, and measure all potential mixtures of interest. Thus, researchers often calculate synthetic spectra using algorithms with varying degrees of fidelity to the physics that govern the interactions between light and multiple materials. In this work, we have (1) adapted a neural network designed to identify mixture components from Raman spectroscopy to work with visible to near‐infrared reflectance data and (2) tested three common mixture algorithms to determine the most accurate and least computationally expensive method to build synthetic training datasets. With our initial test dataset, we have achieved accuracies of > 90% and found that the synthetic training dataset produced using the Hapke mixture model provides the best results.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Molecular dipole moment learning via rotationally equivariant derivative kernels in molecular-orbital-based machine learning

This study extends the accurate and transferable molecular-orbital-based machine learning (MOB-ML) approach to modeling the contribution of electron correlation to dipole moments at the cost of Hartree–Fock computations. A MOB pairwise decomposition of the correlation part of the dipole moment is applied, and these pair dipole moments could be further regressed as a universal function of MOs. The dipole MOB features consist of the energy MOB features and their responses to electric fields. An interpretable and rotationally equivariant derivative kernel for Gaussian process regression (GPR) is introduced to learn the dipole moment more efficiently. The proposed problem setup, feature design, and ML algorithm are shown to provide highly accurate models for both dipole moments and energies on water and 14 small molecules. To demonstrate the ability of MOB-ML to function as generalized density-matrix functionals for molecular dipole moments and energies of organic molecules, we further apply the proposed MOB-ML approach to train and test the molecules from the QM9 dataset. The application of local scalable GPR with Gaussian mixture model unsupervised clustering GPR scales up MOB-ML to a large-data regime while retaining the prediction accuracy. In addition, compared with the literature results, MOB-ML provides the best test mean absolute errors of 4.21 mD and 0.045 kcal/mol for dipole moment and energy models, respectively, when training on 110 000 QM9 molecules. The excellent transferability of the resulting QM9 models is also illustrated by the accurate predictions for four different series of peptides.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Role of the Anion in Imidazolium-Based Ionic Liquids for Fuel and Terpenes Processing

The potentialities of methylimidazolium-based ionic liquids (ILs) as solvents were evaluated for some relevant separation problems—terpene fractionation and fuel processing—studying selectivities, capacities, and solvent performance indices. The activity coefficients at infinite dilution of the solute (1) in the IL (3), γ13∞, of 52 organic solutes were measured by inverse gas chromatography over a temperature range of 333.2–453.2 K. The selected ILs are 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium hexafluorophosphate, [C4mim][PF6], and the equimolar mixture of [C4mim][PF6] and 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium chloride, [C4mim]Cl. Generally, low polar solutes follow γ1,C4mimCl∞ > γ1,C4mimPF6+C4mimCl∞ > γ1,C4mimPF6∞ while the opposite behavior is observed for alcohols and water. For citrus essential oil deterpenation, the results suggest that cations with long alkyl chains, such as C12mim+, promote capacity, while selectivity depends on the solute polarity. Promising results were obtained for the separation of several model mixtures relevant to fuel industries using the equimolar mixture of [C4mim][PF6] and [C4mim]Cl. This work demonstrates the importance of tailoring the polarity of the solvents, suggesting the use of ILs with mixed anions as alternative solvents for the removal of aliphatic hydrocarbons and contaminants from fuels.

Zambom, Aline (ORCID:0000000324512716)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Attention-Augmented Parametric Kernel Graph Neural Network (APKGNN) for Node Classification

We present a new graph neural network, the Attention-based Parametric-Kernel augmented Graph Neural Network (APKGNN), developed for node classification tasks. Despite extensive work on modeling multi-faceted relationships between connected nodes of a graph, the effect of attention on edge features mapped to relationships has not yet been analyzed through learning representation. This study derives such an attention vector by first calculating node features corresponding to endpoints of an edge and then aggregating these with extracted local intrinsic patches of a given graph to generate augmented local patch vectors. This process uses a parametric kernel based on Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) to embed local neighborhoods of the graph in local patches. The patch vectors then convolve with the above node features to produce an updated node representation. We show that this new learning representation (APKGNN) achieves higher node classification accuracy on tasks - both standard benchmarks (Cora, PubMed, Citeseer) and new experimental short text corpora where nodes correspond to text documents and words. This implementation of the GNN convolution layer outperforms state-of-the-art (SOTA) algorithms, achieving higher training, validation, and test accuracy by a significant margin on three standard benchmark data sets under both SOTA experimental settings and those for new testbeds.

Bose, Avishek↗
DOE OSTI2023

Extrapolation of the Rainflow-Counted Load Ranges for Fatigue Assessment of the Wind Turbine's Blades

Wind turbine design standards recommend the use of statistical modeling coupled with extrapolation of the short-term load data to long-term periods for fatigue reliability assessment. However, statistical error and computational expense can limit the accuracy of such approaches. In the case of wind turbine blades, the errors are more significant because of the high material fatigue exponent that makes the damage estimations more sensitive to variations. In addition, due to different excitation sources, the flapwise load range histogram is not unimodal, and thus its statistical modeling is complex. In the present work, we provide three methods for statistical modeling of the flapwise bending moment ranges including a novel approach based on frequency-based separation of the modes. The first two methods are simplified approaches for modeling the most crucial load ranges using unimodal distributions and the third method involves multimodal distribution fitting. The research is based on 3600 10-minute aeroelastic simulations of DTU 10MW case study wind turbine from which a benchmark damage equivalent load (DEL) is calculated. The DEL calculated by each of the three proposed methods is compared to this reference. The results show that the conventional approach based on using 6 seeds as well as using mixture models fitted on the limited data lead to under-conservative results with errors up to 23%. On the other hand, the simplified unimodal approaches provided in this work can provide conservative estimations of the fatigue damage with mean values 5% and 12% higher than the benchmark. However, the variability of the DEL estimates is higher when using unimodal extrapolation of the load ranges, and the data can be conservative by 17.5%. The proposed unimodal fits suggested for modeling and extrapolation of the blade's load ranges provide less errors relatively and most importantly conservative DEL estimations while maintaining computational efficiency.

blade fatigue↗
DOE OSTI2022

Speed of Sound Measurements of Binary Mixtures of Difluoromethane (R-32) with 2,3,3,3-Tetrafluoropropene (R-1234yf) or trans-1,3,3,3-Tetrafluoropropene (R-1234ze(E)) Refrigerants

In this article, sound speed data measured using a dual-path pulse-echo instrument are reported for binary mixtures of difluoromethane (R-32) with 2,3,3,3-tetrafluoropropene (R-1234yf) or trans-1,3,3,3-tetrafluoropropene (R-1234ze(E)). The sound speed is reported at two compositions for each binary mixture of approximately (0.33/67) and (0.67/0.33) mole fraction at temperatures between 230 K and 345 K. Data are reported from pressures slightly above the bubble point to 12 MPa for R-32/1234yf mixtures to avoid potential polymerization reactions and to 53 MPa for the R-32/1234ze(E) mixtures. The mean uncertainty of the sound speed data are less than 0.1% of the measured value where uncertainties at individual state points range from 0.04% to 0.5% of the measured value as the conditions approach the mixture critical region. The reported data are compared to available Helmholtz-energy-explicit EOS included in REFPROP and all systems studied have average absolute deviations greater than 2%. The comparisons show that further adjustments to the mixture models are needed to provide a reasonable representation of the data within its experimental uncertainty.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Flow-based likelihoods for non-Gaussian inference

We investigate the use of data-driven likelihoods to bypass a key assumption made in many scientific analyses, which is that the true likelihood of the data is Gaussian. In particular, we suggest using the optimization targets of flow-based generative models, a class of models that can capture complex distributions by transforming a simple base distribution through layers of nonlinearities. We call these flow-based likelihoods (FBL). We analyze the accuracy and precision of the reconstructed likelihoods on mock Gaussian data, and show that simply gauging the quality of samples drawn from the trained model is not a sufficient indicator that the true likelihood has been learned. We nevertheless demonstrate that the likelihood can be reconstructed to a precision equal to that of sampling error due to a finite sample size. We then apply FBLs to mock weak lensing convergence power spectra, a cosmological observable that is significantly non-Gaussian (NG). We find that the FBL captures the NG signatures in the data extremely well, while other commonly used data-driven likelihoods, such as Gaussian mixture models and independent component analysis, fail to do so. This suggests that works that have found small posterior shifts in NG data with data-driven likelihoods such as these could be underestimating the impact of non-Gaussianity in parameter constraints. By introducing a suite of tests that can capture different levels of NG in the data, we show that the success or failure of traditional data-driven likelihoods can be tied back to the structure of the NG in the data. Here, unlike other methods, the flexibility of the FBL makes it successful at tackling different types of NG simultaneously. Because of this, and consequently their likely applicability across datasets and domains, we encourage their use for inference when sufficient mock data are available for training.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

The DESI Y1 RR Lyrae catalog I: Empirical modeling of the cyclic variation of spectroscopic properties and a chemodynamical analysis of the outer halo

We present the catalog of RR Lyrae stars observed in the first year of operations of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey. This catalog contains 6,240 RR Lyrae stars out to $\sim100$ kpc from the Galactic center and over 12,000 individual epochs with homogeneously-derived stellar atmospheric parameters. We introduce a novel methodology to model the cyclical variation of the spectroscopic properties of RR Lyrae from single-epoch measurements. We employ this method to infer the radial velocity and effective temperature variation of fundamental mode and first-overtone RR Lyrae stars and to determine their systemic velocities and mean temperatures. For fundamental mode pulsators, we obtain radial velocity curves with amplitudes of $\sim$30--50 km s$^{-1}$ and effective temperature curves with 300--1,000 K variations, whereas for first-overtone pulsators these amplitudes are $\sim20$ km s$^{-1}$ and $\sim 600$ K, respectively. We use our sample to study the metallicity distribution of the halo and its dependence on Galactocentric distance ($R_{\rm GC}$). Using a radius-dependent mixture model, we split the data into chemodynamically distinct components and find that our inner halo sample ($R_{\rm GC}\lesssim50$ kpc) is predominantly composed of stars with [Fe/H] $\sim-1.5$ dex and largely radial orbits (with an anisotropy parameter $\beta\sim0.94$), that we associate with the Gaia-Sausage-Enceladus merger event. Stars in the outer halo field exhibit a broader and more metal-poor [Fe/H] distribution with more circular orbits ($\beta\sim0.39$). The metallicity gradient of the metal-rich and the metal-poor components is found to be $0.005$ and $0.010$ dex kpc$^{-1}$, respectively. Our catalog highlights DESI's tantalizing potential for studying the Milky Way and the pulsation properties of RR Lyrae stars in the era of large spectroscopic surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Convective shells in the interior of Cepheid variable stars: Overshooting models based on hydrodynamic simulations

Context. Because Cepheid variable stars have long been used as a cosmic benchmark for scaling distances in our Galaxy and beyond, the accuracy of stellar evolution models for Cepheids have wide-reaching effects. However, our understanding of the dynamics in the interiors of these physically complex stars is limited. Aims. Our goal is to provide a detailed multi-dimensional picture of hydrodynamic convection and convective boundary mixing in the interior of Cepheids. Methods. Using the Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA), we studied the structure of intermediate-mass stars that cross the instability strip. Then, we performed two-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations of six stars with the fully compressible Multidimensional Stellar Implicit Code (MUSIC). Our simulations did not model the radial pulsations but focused on the interior structure of this family of stars. We developed and applied a new statistical analysis to examine convection and convective boundary mixing in the interior of these stellar simulations. Results. Based on a grid of MESA models, we demonstrated that a common structure for intermediate mass Cepheids includes an interior convective shell as well as a thin outer convective envelope. Using the extreme value theory approach to analyze our MUSIC simulation data, we found that overshooting above the convective shell fills the space between these convectively unstable layers. We developed a new statistical analysis that provides a clearer picture of how overshooting fills this layer; it also allowed us to formulate a detailed comparison between overshooting above and below the convective shell. Our analysis effectively decomposes the overshooting layer into two layers: a weak overshooting layer and a strong overshooting layer. Statistically, this is accomplished by decomposing the strongly non-Gaussian probability density function into a mixture of gamma distributions. Using our mixture model, we showed that the ratio of overshooting lengths above and below the convective shell depends directly on the radial extent of the convective shell as well as its depth in the star. We proposed a new form for the diffusion coefficient that addresses the need for overlapping overshooting layers between convective shells. We introduced the idea of a “super-mixing layer” where overshooting from both the convective shell and the convective envelope results in efficient mixing and could be viewed as merging the two adjacent convective zones.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying Chemical and Kinematical Properties of Galactic Disks

We aim to quantify the chemical and kinematical properties of Galactic disks with a sample of 119,558 giant stars having abundances and 3D velocities taken or derived from the APOGEE DR17 and Gaia EDR3 catalogs. A Gaussian mixture model is employed to distinguish the high-α and low-α sequences along the metallicity by simultaneously using chemical and kinematical data. Four disk components are identified and quantified; they are named the hαmp, hαmr, lαmp, and lαmr disks and correspond to the high-α or low-α, and metal-poor or metal-rich properties. Combined with the spatial and stellar-age information, we confirm that they are well interpreted by the two-infall formation model. The first infall of turbulent gas quickly forms the hot and thick hαmp disk with consequent thinner hαmr and lαmr disks. Then the second gas accretion forms a thinner and outermost lαmp disk. We find that the inside-out and upside-down scenario does not only satisfy the overall Galactic disk formation of these two major episodes but is also presented in the formation sequence of the three inner disks. Importantly, we reveal the inverse age–[M/H] trend of the lαmr disk, which means its younger stars are more metal-poor, indicating that the rejuvenated gas from the second accretion gradually dominates later star formation. Meanwhile, the recently formed stars converge to [M/H] ~ –0.1 dex, demonstrating a sufficient mixture of gas from two infalls.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating proxies for the drivers of natural gas productivity using machine-learning models

We report the extensive development of unconventional reservoirs using horizontal drilling and multistage hydraulic fracturing has generated large volumes of reservoir characterization and production data. The analysis of this abundant data using statistical methods and advanced machine-learning (ML) techniques can provide data-driven insights into well performance. Most predictive modeling studies have focused on the impact that different well completion and stimulation strategies have on well production but have not fully exploited the available in situ rock property data to determine its role in reservoir productivity. We have used machine-learning techniques to rank rock mechanical properties, microseismic attributes, and stimulation parameters in the order of their significance for predicting natural gas production from an unconventional reservoir. The data for this study came from a hydraulically fractured well in the Marcellus Shale in Monongalia County, West Virginia. The data classes included measurements aggregated by well completion stage that included (1) gas production, (2) well-log-derived measurements including bulk density, elastic moduli, shear impedance, compressional impedance, brittleness, and gamma measurements, (3) microseismic attributes, (4) long-period long-duration (LPLD) event counts, (5) fracture counts, and (6) stimulation parameters that included the fluid injection volume and average pumping pressure. To identify observable proxies for the drivers of gas production, we evaluated five commonly used ML approaches including multivariate adaptive regression spline, Gaussian mixture model, random forest, gradient boosting, and neural network. We selected five variables including LPLD event count, seismogenic b-value, hydraulic diffusivity, cumulative moment, and fluid volume as the features most likely to impact gas productivity at the stage level in the study area. The data-driven selection of these parameters for their importance in determining gas production can help reservoir engineers design more effective hydraulic-fracture treatments in the Marcellus Shale and other similar unconventional reservoirs. Plain language summary: We use machine-learning methods and data-driven selection of reservoir parameters to rank and better understand their importance in determining gas production, which can help reservoir engineers design more effective hydraulic-fracture treatments in the Marcellus Shale and other similar unconventional reservoirs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Reversible structural transformations in supercooled liquid water from 135 to 245 K

Water has many anomalous properties compared to “simple” liquids, and these anomalies are typically enhanced in supercooled water.1-3 While numerous models have been proposed, including the liquid-liquid critical point,4,5 the singularity-free scenario,6 and the stability limit conjecture,1 a molecular-level understanding remains elusive. The main difficulty in determining which, if any, of these models is correct is the limited amount of data in the relevant temperature and pressure ranges. For water at ambient pressures, which is the focus of this work, data is largely missing from 160 – 232 K (“No Man’s Land”) due to rapid crystallization.2,3 Whether rapid crystallization is just an experimental obstacle, or a fundamental problem signaling the inability of water to thermally equilibrate prior to crystallization is also a major unanswered question.5,7 Here, we investigate the structural transformations of transiently-heated, supercooled water with nanosecond time resolution using infrared vibrational spectroscopy. The experiments demonstrate three key results. First, water’s structure relaxes from its initial configuration to a “steady-state” configuration prior to the onset of crystallization over a wide temperature range. Second, water’s steady-state structure can be reproduced by a linear combination of two, temperature-independent structures that correspond to a “high-temperature liquid” and a “low-temperature liquid.” Third, the observed structural changes are reversible over the full temperature range. Taken together, these results show that supercooled water can equilibrate prior to crystallization for temperatures from the homogeneous nucleation temperature, TH ~232 K,3 down to the glass transition temperature (Tg ~ 136 K). Second, the results provide support for the hypothesis that supercooled water can be described as a mixture of two, structurally-distinct, interconvertible liquids from 135 K to 245 K.5,8-18

Kringle, Loni M.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Raccoon density estimation from camera traps for raccoon rabies management

Abstract Density estimation for unmarked animals is particularly challenging, yet density estimates are often necessary for effective wildlife management. Raccoons ( Procyon lotor ) are the primary terrestrial wildlife reservoir for Lyssavirus rabies within the United States. The raccoon rabies variant (RRVV) is actively managed at landscape scales using oral rabies vaccination (ORV) within the eastern United States. To effectively manage RRVV, it is important to know the density of raccoons to appropriately scale the density of ORV baits distributed on the landscape. We compared methods to estimate raccoon densities from camera‐trap data versus more intensive capture‐mark‐recapture (CMR) estimates across 2 land cover types (upland pine and bottomland hardwood) in the southeastern United States during 2019 and 2020. We evaluated the effect of alternative camera configurations and durations of camera trapping on density estimates and used an N‐mixture model to estimate raccoon densities, including covariates on abundance and detection. We further compared different methods of scaling camera‐based counts, with the maximum number of raccoons seen on any given image within a day best explaining density. Camera‐trap density estimates were moderately correlated with CMR estimates ( r = 0.56). However, densities from camera‐trap data were more reliable when classifying category of density as an index used to inform management (83% correct when compared to CMR estimates), although the densities in our study fell into the 2 lowest density classes only. Using more cameras reduced bias and uncertainty around density estimates; however, if ≤6 camera traps were used at a site, a line transect approach proved less biased than a grid design. Camera trapping should be conducted for at least 3 weeks for more accurate estimates of raccoon population density in our study area (<5% bias). We show that camera‐trap data can be used to assign raccoon densities to management‐relevant density index bins, but more studies are needed to ensure reliability across a greater range of environmental conditions and raccoon densities.

Davis, Amy J.↗