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DOE OSTI2026

Cooperative Education

Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) is a multidisciplinary national laboratory that conducts research and development in national security, engineering, materials science, computational modeling, and advanced manufacturing. The laboratory develops innovative technologies to address complex scientific and engineering challenges. This project focuses on the development and evaluation of high-performance absorbing structures through computational design, simulation, and engineering analysis. Absorbing structures are used in applications where damage mitigation, structural protection, and material efficiency are critical performance requirements. The increasing demand for lightweight, high-strength, and highly efficient structural systems has created a need for improved design methodologies capable of maximizing absorption while minimizing weight and material usage. The project utilizes advanced engineering software, including 3D CAD software and FEA, to generate and optimize structural concepts. Computational simulations are performed to evaluate structural behavior under loading conditions, while mathematical analyses are conducted using Python-based tools as well as established analytical equations from material and structural mechanics. The project benefits LANL by supporting the development of advanced design methodologies and improving the understanding of material and structural performance. During the internship term, a significant portion of the design development, simulation, and data analysis activities will be completed. Success of the project depends on collaboration among engineering mentors and technical staff members. Work will be conducted at Los Alamos National Laboratory using laboratory computing resources and engineering software.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Low Peripheral Blood Counts and Elevated Proinflammatory Cytokines Signal a Poor CD19 Chimeric Antigen Receptor T-cell Response in Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia

CD19 chimeric antigen receptor T-cell (CAR-T) therapy has significantly improved outcomes for patients with relapsed/refractory B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia (R/R B-ALL). However, approximately 20% of patients fail to achieve a complete remission (CR), and some develop severe, life-threatening toxicities. Understanding the biological mechanisms underlying both dysfunctional responses and severe toxicity is essential for optimizing patient management and improving therapeutic efficacy. This study aimed to (1) characterize cytokine profiles associated with dysfunctional responses and severe toxicity following CAR-T infusion, (2) examine the timing and trajectory of cytokine changes in relation to treatment outcomes, and evaluate potential strategies for mitigating toxicity and treatment failure. We conducted a comprehensive analysis of serum cytokine profiles in 86 adult and pediatric patients undergoing autologous CD19 CAR-T therapy for B-ALL. Patients were categorized into three groups: (1) Dysfunctional response—Patients who failed to achieve a minimal residual disease-negative CR (MRD-CR) by Day 63 or who experienced recurrence of CD19+ disease in the setting ongoing CAR-T cell detection before Day 63. (2) Functional response with severe cytokine release syndrome (CRS) and/or neurotoxicity (NTX)—Patients with best response of MRD-CR by Day 63 who experienced grade 3 or higher CRS or NTX. (3) Functional response without severe CRS or NTX—Patients with best response of MRD-CR by Day 63 who did not experience grade =3 CRS or NTX. Cytokine levels were measured during the first-week postinfusion and correlated with treatment efficacy, toxicity outcomes, complete blood counts, and CAR-T expansion dynamics. This analysis aimed to better understand how cytokine profiles relate to patient outcomes and immune responses in CAR-T therapy. Patients with dysfunctional response exhibited decreased neutrophils, platelets, and levels of granulocytic cytokines (suggestive of low bone marrow reserve) alongside elevated pro-inflammatory cytokines by Day 1. Functional response with severe toxicity patients showed a progressive rise in proinflammatory cytokines, reaching similar levels to dysfunctional response patients by Day 7. We observed that high cytokines at both the Day 1 and Day 7 time points were associated with poor survival. These findings remained significant when adjusting for high disease burden, a known predictor of severe inflammatory toxicity and lack of response. Early post-CAR-T infusion inflammation is associated with both dysfunctional response and severe toxicity—even after adjusting for disease burden. This suggests that inflammation, in addition to disease burden, plays a role in determining patient outcome. Therefore, strategies aimed at reducing the pro-inflammatory state prior to or early after CAR-T cell infusion may improve outcomes for R/R B-ALL patients.

Serum cytokines↗

DOE OSTI2024

Static and Dynamic Thermomechanical Properties of Phase-Separated Epoxy Networks with Tuned Microstructures

Here, polymerization-induced phase separation is a useful method for the construction of heterogeneous epoxy networks with properties exceeding their homogeneous counterparts. In this work, we examine the static and dynamic thermomechanical properties of phase-separated epoxy networks salient to their application as encapsulants. Three heterogeneous epoxy-amine networks with nano-, meso-, and macro-phase-separated morphologies comprised of hard and soft domains are compared to a rigid, unstructured network. The glass transition profiles of the heterogeneous networks are complex, spanning many decades in the frequency domain. The nanophase-separated morphology leads to higher coefficient of thermal expansion, yet surprisingly is characterized by reduced residual stress. Under both quasi-static and dynamic compression (strain rates of order 10 –3 and 10 3 s –1 , respectively), the nanophase-separated network also exhibits higher modulus and strength. In split-Hopkinson bar experiments, the energy dissipation characteristics of the epoxy networks were nearly identical. Curiously, however, the Hugoniot response of the macro-phase-separated network determined by ballistic shockwave analysis indicates a remarkable ability of this material to mitigate shockwave propagation in comparison to many homogeneous and heterogeneous polymer materials. Collectively, this work reveals several previously unreported phenomena with respect to structure–property relationships in phase-separated epoxy networks, illustrating the potential value of systematically tuned microstructures for optimization of application-specific physical properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Molecular insights into CO 2 -to-bicarbonate transformation in functionalized anion exchange ionomers for electrochemical separations

Bipolar membrane (BPM) electrochemical processes are a promising platform for carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) separations, but the molecular level thermodynamic and kinetic understanding of CO 2 -to-bicarbonate (HCO 3 − ) transformation remain poorly understood. This study employs a multiscale computational approach to systematically explore the adsorption and reactive transformation of CO 2 in five anion exchange ionomer systems. Classical molecular dynamics (MD) simulation results demonstrate that polymers with imidazolium groups significantly reduce CO 2 diffusion and enhance (OH − )–CO 2 interactions due to stronger electrostatic and π-interactions. Compared to the commonly used quaternary ammonium ionomers, imidazolium-functionalized ionomers show improved CO 2 proximity and interaction strength. Ab initio MD and density functional theory (DFT) calculations reveal that the benzyl-substituted imidazolium (IM-Ben) substantially reduces the energy barrier for HCO 3 − formation (∼72 meV lower) compared to the alkyl-substituted IM-nBu, while also mitigating imidazolium deprotonation under moderate hydration conditions. Transition state analysis shows IM-Ben forms more extensive hydrogen-bonding networks, which stabilize the transition state structure and contribute to a lower energy barrier for bicarbonate formation. These findings highlight the advantage of the adjacent benzyl moiety in enabling efficient CO 2 -to-bicarbonate transformation via hydrated hydroxide ion counterions, offering mechanistic insights and clear molecular design principles for optimizing anion exchange ionomers at bipolar membrane interfaces for electrochemical CO 2 separation applications.

Bipolar membranes, Reactive transformation of CO2,↗

DOE OSTI2026

pop-cosmos : redshifts and physical properties of KiDS-1000 galaxies

ABSTRACT Principled Bayesian inference of galaxy properties has not previously been performed for wide-area weak-lensing surveys with millions of sources. We address this gap by applying the pop-cosmos generative model to perform spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting for 4 million KiDS (Kilo-Degree Survey)-1000 galaxies. Calibrated on deep COSMOS2020 photometric data, pop-cosmos specifies a physically motivated prior over the galaxy population up to $z \simeq 6$ in stellar population synthesis (SPS) parameter space. Using the Speculator SPS emulator with GPU (graphics processing unit)-accelerated Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, we perform full posterior inference at 8.2 GPU seconds per galaxy, obtaining joint constraints on galaxy redshifts and physical properties. We validate photometric redshifts against $\sim \!185\,\!000$ KiDS galaxies cross-matched to Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Data Release 1 spectroscopic samples, achieving low bias ($2\times 10^{-3}$), scatter ($\sigma _{\mathrm{MAD}}=0.03$), and outlier fraction (3.2 per cent) for the Bright Galaxy Survey, with comparable performance (bias $3\times 10^{-2}$, $\sigma _{\mathrm{MAD}}=0.05$, 1.0 per cent outliers) for luminous red galaxies (LRGs). Within the LRG sample, we identify massive, dusty, star-forming contaminants at $z \simeq 0.4$ satisfying standard colour selections for quenched populations. We infer trends in stellar mass, star formation, metallicity, and dust across five tomographic redshift bins consistent with established scaling relations. Using specific star formation rate constraints, we identify $\sim$7 per cent of KiDS-1000 galaxies as quenched, versus 37 per cent implied by conservative colour cuts. This enables the construction of weak-lensing samples defined by physical properties while mitigating intrinsic alignment systematics and preserving statistical power. Our analysis validates pop-cosmos out of sample, establishing it as a scalable approach for galaxy evolution and cosmological analyses with photometric surveys.

Halder, Anik [Institute of Astronomy and Kavli Ins↗

DOE OSTI2025

Detecting anomalous SRF cavity behavior with unsupervised learning

We present an unsupervised learning framework for detecting anomalous superconducting radio-frequency (SRF) cavity behavior at the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF), emphasizing its initial performance and effectiveness. Key to the system’s success was the development of data acquisition systems (DAQs) that capture fast-sampled, information-rich signals, essential for detecting transient effects. The approach involves creating daily cavity-specific models using principal component analysis to handle variations in rf signal behavior and mitigate performance degradation from data drift. This unsupervised method eliminates the need for expensive labeling by continuously updating models with recent data. Deployed and operational for 3 months before a scheduled shutdown, the system successfully identified several issues with DAQ signals, confirming its effectiveness. Despite access to only a fraction of CEBAF’s SRF cavity signals, the framework efficiently detected several instances requiring intervention, demonstrating a significant improvement over traditional, labor-intensive methods of manual plot inspection. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evolutionary and functional relationships between plant and microbial C 1 metabolism in terrestrial ecosystems

One-carbon (C 1 ) metabolism, centered on the universal methyl donor S-adenosyl methionine (SAM), plays critical roles in biosynthesis, redox regulation, and stress responses across plants and microbes. A recently proposed photosynthetic C 1 pathway links SAM methyl groups directly to RuBisCO-mediated CO 2 assimilation and integrates with nitrogen and sulfur metabolism. Light-dependent SAM synthesis may regulate the methylation of biopolymers and specialized metabolites and help mitigate photorespiratory stress under elevated temperature and drought. Phylogenetic analysis of two core enzymes suggests evolutionary continuity from methylotrophic microbes to land plants, supporting microbial origins via endosymbiotic gene transfer. Beyond intracellular roles, C 1 metabolism drives biosphere–atmosphere exchange via gases such as methane, methanol, formic acid, and formaldehyde, and numerous specialized volatiles synthesized through SAM methylation. S-methylmethionine, a mobile C 1 metabolite, may mediate phloem transport of reduced sulfur, nitrogen, and methyl groups, linking above- and belowground C 1 cycling in plants. Advances in real-time gas sensing now allow the high-frequency quantification of C 1 fluxes from leaves, stems, and soils, highlighting C 1 metabolism as a critical and underrecognized component of terrestrial carbon and nutrient cycling. Given its microbial ancestry and the production of diverse volatile biosignatures, C 1 metabolism may also offer unique insights into life's origins and biosignature detection on exoplanets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improved Fundamental Understanding of Aluminum Chemistry and Interactions of Aluminate Anion with Co-Anions: ORNL Project Progress Report

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Hanford Site in Washington State houses 177 underground storage tanks containing millions of gallons of nuclear and chemical waste with high aluminum content. Aluminum (Al) salt reactions with strong bases produce aluminum hydroxides, like boehmite (γ-AlOOH), which are main components of insoluble nuclear waste sludge. Understanding the morphology, crystallinity, and dissolution behavior of boehmite under waste tank conditions is necessary for improving waste management and mitigation strategies. The ORNL team uses in situ multimodal analysis strategy to study Al chemistry of simulated tank waste using microfluidic reactors and advanced chemical imaging and mass spectrometry (MS) techniques. Because the SALVI device is vacuum compatible and transferrable among different platforms, we can use it in scanning electron microscopy (SEM), vacuum ultraviolet single photon mass spectrometry (VUV SPI-MS), and time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (ToF-SIMS) to study the chemical speciation and colloid stability in liquids in this project. Additionally, ex situ transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and x-ray diffraction (XRD) spectroscopy can be used to verify particle phase to further the understanding of the Al-bearing phases. This report gives a summary of the technical progress of the ORNL tasks. A plan for year 2 performance is recommended in the summary.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2024

Optimization of Membrane-based Carbon Capture using Dimensional Analysis, CFD and Process System Engineering

Carbon capture is a promising option to mitigate CO2 emissions from existing coal-fired power plants, cement and steel industries, and petrochemical complexes. Among the available technologies, membrane-based carbon capture presents the lowest energy consumption, operating costs, and carbon footprint. In addition, membrane processes have important operational flexibil-ity and response times. On the other hand, the major challenges to widespread application of this technology are related to reducing capital costs and improving membrane stability and durability.To upscale the technology into stacked flat sheet configurations, high fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) that describes the separation process accurately are required. High fidelity simulations have been shown to be effective in studying the complex transport phenomena in membrane systems. In addition, obtaining high CO2 recovery percentages and product purity requires a multi-stage membrane process, where the optimal network configuration of the membrane modules must be studied in a systematic way. In order to address the design problem at process scale, we formulate a superstructure for the membrane-based carbon capture, including up to three separation stages. In the formulation of the optimization problem, we include reduced models, based on rigorous CFD simulations of the membrane modules. Numerical results indicate that the optimal design includes three membrane stages, and the capture cost is 45.4 $/t-CO2.

Pedrozo, Hector A.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Joint inference of multiplicative and additive systematics in galaxy density fluctuations and clustering measurements

Galaxy clustering measurements are a key probe of the matter density field in the Universe. With the era of precision cosmology upon us, surveys rely on precise measurements of the clustering signal for meaningful cosmological analysis. However, the presence of systematic contaminants can bias the observed galaxy number density, and thereby bias the galaxy two-point statistics. As the statistical uncertainties get smaller, correcting for these systematic contaminants becomes increasingly important for unbiased cosmological analysis. We present and validate a new method for understanding and mitigating both additive and multiplicative systematics in galaxy clustering measurements (two-point function) by joint inference of contaminants in the galaxy overdensity field (one-point function) using a maximum-likelihood estimator (MLE). We test this methodology with Kilo-Degree Survey-like mock galaxy catalogues and synthetic systematic template maps. We estimate the cosmological impact of such mitigation by quantifying uncertainties and possible biases in the inferred relationship between the observed and the true galaxy clustering signal. Our method robustly corrects the clustering signal to the sub-percent level and reduces numerous additive and multiplicative systematics from 1.5σ to less than 0.1σ for the scenarios we tested. In addition, we provide an empirical approach to identifying the functional form (additive, multiplicative, or other) by which specific systematics contaminate the galaxy number density. Even though this approach is tested and geared towards systematics contaminating the galaxy number density, the methods can be extended to systematics mitigation for other two-point correlation measurements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Performance and Stability Characterization of the ICARUS Light Detection System

The ICARUS detector, a key component of the Short Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Program at Fermilab, consists of two identical T300 modules filled with liquid argon. It is equipped with a Light Detection System (LDS) based on 360 8-inch Hamamatsu R5912-MOD photomultiplier tubes (PMTs) arranged behind the wire planes to collect Vacuum Ultraviolet (VUV, $\sim$ 128 nm) scintillation light. Operating under cryogenic conditions ( $\sim$ 87 K), the LDS is essential for determining the event start time (t0) with nanosecond precision for beam spill synchronization, improving longitudinal spatial resolution, and contributing to the event trigger and cosmic-ray mitigation. The performance of the LDS was investigated addressing both hardware and data analysis aspects. Following a progressive degradation in PMT gain observed during operations at FNAL, systematic gain measurements were first carried out from room temperature down to low temperatures. The results show stable performance at room temperature but a significant, irreversible reduction in gain at low temperatures. Based on these findings, a series of mitigation strategies were implemented in the ICARUS detector to preserve PMT performance and ensure reliable cryogenic operation. Currently, ongoing waveform analysis of the PMT signals is being performed to characterize signal shape, charge integration, and timing properties, aiming to refine and improve the agreement between experimental data and Monte Carlo simulations.

Saia, Clara [U. Catania (main); INAF, Catania; Cat↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Twin Circuit Theory-Based Framework for Oscillation Event Analysis in Inverter-Dominated Power Systems With Case Study for Kaua‘i System

Here, this paper proposes a real-world oscillation event analysis framework for power systems that include inverter-based resources together with synchronous generators. Specifically, the proposed framework combines both measurement-and model-based techniques to readily identify potential oscillation sources, replay the oscillation event with numerical simulation, unveil the underlying oscillation mechanism, and suggest mitigation methods for a wide range of oscillation events. To strengthen the theoretical foundation of our analysis framework, this paper proposes a twin circuit theory that provides theoretical support for one key utilized but not well-proven measurement-based oscillation source identification method-Dissipating Energy Flow. Our twin circuit theory also shows that adopting well-tuned grid-forming inverters can be a potential mitigation method for oscillation events. Finally, the effectiveness of our proposed oscillation event analysis framework is demonstrated by addressing a real-world 18-20 Hz oscillation event in Kaua‘i's power system on November 21, 2021.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bundling measures for food systems transformation: a global, multimodel assessment

Background Current food systems leave one in ten individuals at risk of hunger while driving unsustainable environmental impacts. Inaction risks further exacerbating negative impacts on both human and planetary health. These challenges emerge from complex system interactions, requiring approaches that engage with this complexity and consider how transformation measures interact across food systems. We aimed to quantify the magnitude and uncertainty of the impacts of key food systems transformation measures both individually and in a bundle using an ensemble of global economic models. Methods In this global multimodel assessment, we applied an ensemble of ten state-of-the-art global economic models to evaluate the potential of four key measures in transforming food systems: increasing agricultural productivity, halving food loss and waste, shifting towards healthier diets, and economy-wide climate mitigation policies aligned with limiting warming to 1·5°C. The scenarios used a middle-of-the-road shared socioeconomic pathway for population and gross domestic product growth, climate impact data from Jägermeyr and colleagues, Thornton and colleagues, and Nelson and colleagues, and dietary targets based on the EAT–Lancet healthy reference diet, with model simulations conducted from 2020 to 2050. We then assessed the effect of these measures in isolation and in combination in a bundled scenario. To further understand the interactions between these measures, we conducted a decomposition analysis that distinguishes between the individual effects of a measure (effect when implemented alone), total effects (its contribution within the bundle), and interaction effects (the difference between total and individual effects). This approach aimed to show complementarities and trade-offs that emerge when multiple measures are implemented simultaneously. Findings Our analysis showed that individual measures in isolation are insufficient to achieve high-level environmental objectives and might generate unintended consequences. In contrast, bundling measures produces co-benefits: avoiding 50% of projected agricultural greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and almost 20% of anticipated land conversion, while moderating food price increases associated with ambitious climate change mitigation policies. Our decomposition analysis further shows that measures can have varying effects across different dimensions. Although dietary shifts and climate mitigation policies are the largest drivers of environmental benefits (each contributing to a median decline of >10 percentage points in non-CO 2 emissions and 5 percentage points in agricultural land use globally), productivity improvements and reducing food loss and waste play essential roles in moderating price increases (each contributing to a median decline of >5 percentage points in average prices). Interpretation This study highlights the importance of implementing coordinated approaches to food system transformation and climate change mitigation rather than relying on isolated interventions. Comprehensive transformation requires understanding how supply-side and demand-side changes can interact with climate mitigation policies, enabling policy makers to design intervention packages that maximise benefits while minimising trade-offs across environmental, economic, and social dimensions.

Sundiang, Marina [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (Unite↗

DOE OSTI2025

Environmental DNA as a tool for hydropower impact assessments: current status, special considerations, and future integration

Globally there is an urgent need to find sustainable solutions to balance energy production with the protection of vulnerable species and conservation of biodiversity. This is particularly critical for freshwater ecosystems, habitats, and species that may be impacted by hydropower development and operations needed to meet energy grid demands. Reliable and accurate environmental impact assessments (EIAs) that identify the biological, physical, or social impacts of hydropower are key to ensure biodiversity, ecosystem, and societal sustainability. The analysis of environmental DNA (eDNA) has the potential to transform hydropower EIAs, management and mitigation planning, and decision-making procedures. Further, the incorporation of eDNA surveys into EIAs during both hydropower planning and continued operations may streamline regulatory processes by improving our understanding of potentially impacted biota and habitats and evaluating environmental impacts mitigation. Here, we: (i) highlight current understanding and use of eDNA in freshwater environments; (ii) examine critical considerations for eDNA integration into hydropower EIAs and biological monitoring; (iii) identify knowledge gaps in eDNA analysis and applications unique to hydropower-regulated systems; and (iv) discuss future opportunities to bolster the incorporation of eDNA into hydropower research including regulatory acceptance and public engagement. While we acknowledge that there are several factors that may complicate the broad adoption of eDNA as a tool for assessing the impacts of hydropower, we anticipate that growing confidence in eDNA through hydropower-specific protocols, calibrations, and validations will overcome these inherent uncertainties.

aquatic biodiversity↗

DOE OSTI2025

Adapting Traditional Hazards Analysis Methods to Address Cyber Risks

Traditional hazards analysis (HA) methods, originally developed to address physical and operational risks, often fall short when it comes to identifying and mitigating cyber threats. These cyber threats pose unique and evolving risks to critical infrastructure and industrial control systems (ICS). This report explores the integration of Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) principles into existing HA methods to enhance their ability to address cyber-induced risks. CIE provides organizations with a practical, cost-effective approach to closing the gap between traditional HA methods and the need for cyber risk mitigation. By leveraging existing safety processes and controls, CIE allows users to examine and mitigate cyber vulnerabilities without overhauling existing HA methods. This report identifies areas where HA and CIE naturally align and where their approaches diverge. It emphasizes how CIE principles can be used to adapt HA methods, broadening their scope to include cyber risks and enabling the mitigation of cyber- induced impacts alongside traditional hazards and failure scenarios. This report examines how CIE can be applied across various HA methods—such as Hazard and Operability Studies (HAZOP), Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA), Hazard and Consequence Analysis for Digital Systems (HAZCADS), and Layers of Protection Analysis (LOPA). It provides strategies for integrating CIE to strengthen the identification, assessment, and mitigation of cyber-induced risks. The findings offer a structured entry point for organizations to embed CIE concepts into hazards and safety analyses, as well as broader engineering processes, ultimately supporting the design and operation of a more resilient infrastructure.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Adapting Traditional Hazards Analysis Methods to Address Cyber Risks

42 - ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Performing Numerical Analysis of Cybersecurity Options Using Dynamic Risk Analysis Tool EMRALD

Cyberattacks can have many different attack paths, durations, and goals. There are also many different mitigation options involving hardware, software, and/or humans. Considering a cyber threat should involve defense-in-depth methods and a quantitative or numerical evaluation of overall effectiveness against dynamic, time-dependent attacks to make cost and risk-informed decisions. Typical cyberattack modeling methods only provide a qualitative evaluation. The main areas of cybersecurity are confidentiality, integrity, and availability. For companies with cyber-physical systems such as advanced nuclear reactors, cyber-related safety is a requirement set by North American Electric Reliability and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. They are also concerned about availability or reliability as a business case. As cyber threats are evolving to a business-for-hire structure, more attacks may focus on disrupting business success and reliability, causing financial and economic stability risk. Companies want to know business reliability and recovery from those threats, and that requires modeling physical behavior of the targets. Dynamic-state-based and Markov-based modeling provides a method for better cyber scenario modeling with different tools having issues such as state-base explosion. Dynamic modeling enables time and conditional features not found in other numerical evaluation methods. EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Lined Diagrams) is a dynamic risk analysis modeling and simulation tool and has features that reduce modeling issues. It has been used to model different time-dependent events including plant behavior and operator procedures. As a general modeling tool, EMRALD can also be used to model cyberattack scenarios with varying mitigation options and quantify effectiveness, producing numerical data for risk-informed decisions. This paper uses EMRALD to demonstrate that dynamic numerical risk analysis can be used for cyber threat modeling to provide insights for design decision-making and optimize defense strategies. Keywords: cyber modeling; cyber-physical systems; numerical cyber modeling

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

LDRD Abbreviated report: High-Order General-Discrete-Ordinates Method Enabling Efficient Deterministic Transport in Hydrodynamic Simulations

Deterministic transport simulations for national-security and energy applications often operate in high-dimensional phase-space, where accuracy and cost both become major challenges. A common numerical artifact in such problems is the “ray-effect,” which appears as unphysical streaks. Beyond misinterpretation, these artifacts can contaminate tightly coupled physics, such as fluid dynamics, radiation-hydrodynamics, and laser-plasma interactions, eroding the predictive capability of entire multiphysics workflows. Our objective was to make high-dimension studies practical on modern hardware while mitigating the ray-effect without relying on prohibitively expensive sampling approaches such as Monte Carlo methods. We developed the Generic Discretization Library (GenDiL), a Graphics Processing Unit (GPU)-first framework that uses high-order Discontinuous Galerkin (DG) methods and matrix-free algorithms to reduce memory usage and improve computational efficiency, critical for phase-space simulations. GenDiL supports phase-space adaptivity in both mesh size and polynomial order (hp-adaptivity) to place resolution only where it is needed. A central capability is Local Dimensional Refinement (LDR), which couples lower-dimension continuum models to higher-dimension kinetic models through stable and conservative interfaces, so that high-fidelity physics is applied only in regions where it is essential. Building on the GenDiL framework, we developed the General SN (GSN) family of algorithms as a true generalization of the polar SN approach (discrete ordinates, often denoted SN). Rather than tying discrete ordinates to a specific polar change of coordinates, GSN formulates transport on an arbitrary change of coordinates chosen to reduce ray-effect. We studied two complementary variants: an analytic variant, where the coordinate map is prescribed in advance by a closed-form function; and a data-driven variant, where a quantity of interest, such as the net flux, guides the coordinate system. GenDiL provides the library infrastructure for efficient GPU execution, but the GSN concept is algorithmic and independent of any one library. Across representative high-dimension tests, including non-symmetric solutions, both variants delivered strong ray-effect mitigation at practical cost, moving four- to six-dimensional analysis toward repeatable, routine studies.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗