Statistical model of meteor streams. I - Analysis of the model. II - Major showers
Meteor streams dynamic properties, computing mean orbit elements with statistical mathematical model
Sekanina, Z.↗
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Meteoroid Environment Modeling: the Meteoroid Engineering Model and Shower Forecasting
INTRODUCTION: The meteoroid environment is often divided conceptually into meteor showers and the sporadic meteor background. It is commonly but incorrectly assumed that meteoroid impacts primarily occur during meteor showers; instead, the vast majority of hazardous meteoroids belong to the sporadic complex. Unlike meteor showers, which persist for a few hours to a few weeks, sporadic meteoroids impact the Earth's atmosphere and spacecraft throughout the year. The Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) has produced two environment models to handle these cases: the Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM) and an annual meteor shower forecast. The sporadic complex, despite its year-round activity, is not isotropic in its directionality. Instead, their apparent points of origin, or radiants, are organized into groups called "sources". The speed, directionality, and size distribution of these sporadic sources are modeled by the Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM), which is currently in its second major release version (MEMR2) [Moorhead et al., 2015]. MEM provides the meteoroid flux relative to a user-provided spacecraft trajectory; it provides the total flux as well as the flux per angular bin, speed interval, and on specific surfaces (ram, wake, etc.). Because the sporadic complex dominates the meteoroid flux, MEM is the most appropriate model to use in spacecraft design. Although showers make up a small fraction of the meteoroid environment, they can produce significant short-term enhancements of the meteoroid flux. Thus, it can be valuable to consider showers when assessing risks associated with vehicle operations that are brief in duration. To assist with such assessments, the MEO issues an annual forecast that reports meteor shower fluxes as a function of time and compares showers with the time-averaged total meteoroid flux. This permits missions to do quick assessments of the increase in risk posed by meteor showers.
Moorhead, Althea V.↗
Meteoroid Environment Modeling: the Meteoroid Engineering Model and Shower Forecasting
The meteoroid environment is often divided conceptually into meteor showers plus a sporadic background component. The sporadic complex poses the bulk of the risk to spacecraft, but showers can produce significant short-term enhancements of the meteoroid flux. The Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) has produced two environment models to handle these cases: the Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM) and an annual meteor shower forecast. Both MEM and the forecast are used by multiple manned spaceflight projects in their meteoroid risk evaluation, and both tools are being revised to incorporate recent meteor velocity, density, and timing measurements. MEM describes the sporadic meteoroid complex and calculates the flux, speed, and directionality of the meteoroid environment relative to a user-supplied spacecraft trajectory, taking the spacecraft's motion into account. MEM is valid in the inner solar system and offers near-Earth and cis-lunar environments. While the current version of MEM offers a nominal meteoroid environment corresponding to a single meteoroid bulk density, the next version of MEMR3 will offer both flux uncertainties and a density distribution in addition to a revised near-Earth environment. We have updated the near-Earth meteor speed distribution and have made the first determination of uncertainty in this distribution. We have also derived a meteor density distribution from the work of Kikwaya et al. (2011). The annual meteor shower forecast takes the form of a report and data tables that can be used in conjunction with an existing MEM assessment. Fluxes are typically quoted to a constant limiting kinetic energy in order to comport with commonly used ballistic limit equations. For the 2017 annual forecast, the MEO substantially revised the list of showers and their characteristics using 14 years of meteor flux measurements from the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar (CMOR). Defunct or insignificant showers were removed and the temporal profiles of many showers were improved. In 2016 the MEO also adapted the forecast to the cislunar environment for the first time. We plan to make additional improvements to the model in the next two years using optical meteor flux measurements and mass indices.
Moorhead, Althea V.↗
Meteoroid Environment Modeling: the Meteoroid Engineering Model and Shower Forecasting
The meteoroid environment is often divided conceptually into meteor showers plus a sporadic background component. The sporadic complex poses the bulk of the risk to spacecraft, but showers can produce significant short-term enhancements of the meteoroid flux. The Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) has produced two environment models to handle these cases: the Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM) and an annual meteor shower forecast. Both MEM and the forecast are used by multiple manned spaceflight projects in their meteoroid risk evaluation, and both tools are being revised to incorporate recent meteor velocity, density, and timing measurements. MEM describes the sporadic meteoroid complex and calculates the flux, speed, and directionality of the meteoroid environment relative to a user-supplied spacecraft trajectory, taking the spacecraft's motion into account. MEM is valid in the inner solar system and offers near-Earth and cis-lunar environments. While the current version of MEM offers a nominal meteoroid environment corresponding to a single meteoroid bulk density, the next version of MEMR3 will offer both flux uncertainties and a density distribution in addition to a revised near-Earth environment. We have updated the near-Earth meteor speed distribution and have made the first determination of uncertainty in this distribution. We have also derived a meteor density distribution from the work of Kikwaya et al. (2011). The annual meteor shower forecast takes the form of a report and data tables that can be used in conjunction with an existing MEM assessment. Fluxes are typically quoted to a constant limiting kinetic energy in order to comport with commonly used ballistic limit equations. For the 2017 annual forecast, the MEO substantially revised the list of showers and their characteristics using 14 years of meteor flux measurements from the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar (CMOR). Defunct or insignificant showers were removed and the temporal profiles of many showers were improved. In 2016 the MEO also adapted the forecast to the cislunar environment for the first time. We plan to make additional improvements to the model in the next two years using optical meteor flux measurements and mass indices.
Moorhead, Althea V.↗
Characteristics of the 2012 Geminids
The parent of the Geminids, 3200 Phaethon, is a unique body in that it is classified as an asteroid, however is responsible for one of the most prolific meteor showers of the year and has shown comet-like behavior in its past (Jewitt and Li 2010). The Geminid meteor shower is also anomalous as its rates have been increasing since it was first detected. Understanding the composition and properties of meteoroids that belong to this meteor shower is an important area of study and of interest to both theoreticians and experimentalists. Using the light curve and decelerations of ten double-station Geminids as seen in the Meteoroid Environment Office's widefield meteor cameras, densities were able to be approximated using a model of meteoroid ablation by Campbell-Brown et al (2013) which employs thermal disruption to model the release of grains during ablation. Bulk densities of Geminids give unique insight into the composition of Phaethon that would only be derived by going to the asteroid itself. The bulk densities of these ten Geminids were found to be between 2.6 and 3.0 g/cm(3), supporting results from Babadzhanov (2009) and Borovicka et al (2010) which prove Phaethon has a much lower porosity than most other meteor shower parents. NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office established these two wide-field meteor cameras to observe meteors in the milligram-mass-range. Each camera consists of a 17 mm focal length Schneider lens (f/0.95) on a Watec 902U2 Ultimate CCD video camera, producing a 21.7x15.5 degree field-of-view. This configuration sees meteors down to a magnitude of +6. Data from these cameras are currently being used to calculate daily automated meteor fluxes. On the first night of operation, December 13-14, 2012, 18 double-station and 53 unique single-station Geminids were detected. The Geminid flux results from this system will be presented as well as ZHR's over the peak of the Geminids. The average flux density over the night was 0.058, 0.052, and 0.062 meteors/km(2)/hour down to a limiting magnitude of +6.5, for the double-station results and each single-station's results. This equates to ZHR's of 113, 102, and 122 respectively. Included in the flux algorithm is a process to find the collecting area per height and a method to find the limiting meteor magnitude per 10 minute time period.
Blaauw, R.↗
An Orbital Meteoroid Stream Survey Using the Southern Argentina Agile Meteor Radar (SAAMER) Based on a Wavelet Approach
Over a million individually measured meteoroid orbits were collected with the Southern Argentina Agile MEteor Radar (SAAMER) between 2012-2015. This provides a robust statistical database to perform an initial orbital survey of meteor showers in the Southern Hemisphere via the application of a 3D wavelet transform. The method results in a composite year from all 4 years of data, enabling us to obtain an undisturbed year of meteor activity with more than one thousand meteors per day. Our automated meteor shower search methodology identified 58 showers. Of these showers, 24 were associated with previously reported showers from the IAU catalogue while 34 showers are new and not listed in the catalogue. Our searching method combined with our large data sample provides unprecedented accuracy in measuring meteor shower activity and description of shower characteristics in the Southern Hemisphere. Using simple modeling and clustering methods we also propose potential parent bodies for the newly discovered showers.
Meteor showers↗
Meteoroid Flux from Lunar Impact Monitoring
The flux of kilogram-sized meteoroids has been determined from the first 5 years of observations by NASA's Lunar Impact Monitoring Program (Suggs et al. 2014). Telescopic video observations of 126 impact flashes observed during photometric conditions were calibrated and the flux of meteoroids to a limiting mass of 30 g was determined to be 6.14 x 10(exp -10) m(exp -2) yr(exp -1) at the Moon, in agreement with the Grun et al. (1985) model value of 7.5 x 10(exp -10) m(exp -2) yr(exp -1). After accounting for gravitational focusing effects, the flux at the Earth to a limiting impact energy of 3.0 x10(exp -6) kilotons of TNT (1.3 x 10(exp 7) J) was determined to be consistent with the results in Brown et al. (2002). Approximately 62% of the impact flashes were correlated with major meteor showers as cataloged in visual/optical meteor shower databases. These flux measurements, coupled with cratering and ejecta models, can be used to develop impact ejecta engineering environments for use in lunar surface spacecraft design and risk analyses.
Suggs, Robert↗
Exploring a Potentially Significant New(?) Mechanism for Methane Generation on Mars
An unexplored mechanism for methane production on Mars is presented here. Meteor showers have been hypothesized [1] as an explanation for episodic martian methane events [2-7], as the timing of meteor showers consistently correlates with the episodic methane events. The hypothesis [1] relied on production of methane via UV photolysis of extraterrestrial carbonaceous material [8,9] following dissemination of material into the martian atmosphere and onto the surface. Recently, new insights have emerged about an overlooked mechanism for methane production – plasma methanation [10,11] of martian atmospheric CO2 in meteor plasma. This mechanism can generate methane in addition to that produced by the previously explored methods of direct thermal evolution and UV photolysis, adding to the total methane budget produced through meteor infall. It also delivers methane in a rapid manner consistent with past observations of episodic methane “plumes” on Mars, and at altitudes where methane is rapidly removed afterwards. Methane produced by plasma methanation occurs at high altitude, which matches observations made on Mars where measurements collected through the full thickness of the martian atmosphere are of consistently higher methane concentrations (>10 ppbv [2-6]) than those recorded on the surface by the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) rover (<10 ppbv [7]). High-altitude methane should be detected by the ESA Trace Gas Orbiter (TGO) which has not noted any methane to date. This result is puzzling regardless of the source of methane, but may be explained by the random nature of meteor shower outbursts – a significant infall may simply not have occurred (yet) during the ~3-Earth-year period of TGO observations.
Fries, M.↗
Large Bodies Associated with Meteoroid Streams
It is now accepted that some near-Earth objects (NEOs) may be dormant or dead comets. One strong indicator of cometary nature is the existence of an associated meteoroid stream with its consequently observed meteor showers. The complexes of NEOs which have very similar orbits and a likely common progenitor have been identified. The theoretical parameters for any meteor shower that may be associated with these complexes were calculated. As a result of a search of existing catalogues of meteor showers, activity has been observed corresponding to each of the theoretically predicted showers was found. We conclude that these asteroid-meteoroid complexes of four NEOs moving within the Piscids stream, three NEOs moving within the Iota Aquariids stream, and six new NEOs added to the Taurid complex are the result of a cometary break-up.
Badadzhanov, P. B.↗
P/Machholz 1986 8 and quadrantid meteoroid stream. Orbital evolution and relationship
The evolution of the P/Machholz's meteoroid stream was simulated. It shows that this stream may produce eight meteor showers. There are the known observed meteor showers such as the Quadrantids, Ursids, Northern and Southern delta-Aquarids, Daytime Arietids, and alpha-Cetids. A satisfactory agreement of the theoretical and observed geocentric radiants and orbits allows one to conclude that the above showers could have been resulted from the decay of the P/Machholz nucleus. The age of the stream is estimated to be 7.5 millennia.
Babadzhanov, Pulat B.↗
The NASA Fireball Network
In the summer of 2008, the NASA Meteoroid Environments Office (MEO) began to establish a video fireball network, based on the following objectives: (1) determine the speed distribution of cm size meteoroids, (2) determine the major sources of cm size meteoroids (showers/sporadic sources), (3) characterize meteor showers (numbers, magnitudes, trajectories, orbits), (4) determine the size at which showers dominate the meteor flux, (5) discriminate between re-entering space debris and meteors, and 6) locate meteorite falls. In order to achieve the above with the limited resources available to the MEO, it was necessary that the network function almost fully autonomously, with very little required from humans in the areas of upkeep or analysis. With this in mind, the camera design and, most importantly, the ASGARD meteor detection software were adopted from the University of Western Ontario's Southern Ontario Meteor Network (SOMN), as NASA has a cooperative agreement with Western's Meteor Physics Group. 15 cameras have been built, and the network now consists of 8 operational cameras, with at least 4 more slated for deployment in calendar year 2013. The goal is to have 15 systems, distributed in two or more groups east of automatic analysis; every morning, this server also automatically generates an email and a web page (http://fireballs.ndc.nasa.gov) containing an automated analysis of the previous night's events. This analysis provides the following for each meteor: UTC date and time, speed, start and end locations (longitude, latitude, altitude), radiant, shower identification, light curve (meteor absolute magnitude as a function of time), photometric mass, orbital elements, and Tisserand parameter. Radiant/orbital plots and various histograms (number versus speed, time, etc) are also produced. After more than four years of operation, over 5,000 multi-station fireballs have been observed, 3 of which potentially dropped meteorites. A database containing data on all these events, including the videos and calibration information, has been developed and is being modified to include data from the SOMN and other camera networks.
Cooke, William J.↗
Optical Meteor Systems Used by the NASA Meteoroid Environment Office
The NASA Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) uses two main meteor camera networks to characterize the meteoroid environment: an all sky system and a wide field system to study cm and mm size meteors respectively. The NASA All Sky Fireball Network consists of fifteen meteor video cameras in the United States, with plans to expand to eighteen cameras by the end of 2015. The camera design and All-Sky Guided and Real-time Detection (ASGARD) meteor detection software [1, 2] were adopted from the University of Western Ontario's Southern Ontario Meteor Network (SOMN). After seven years of operation, the network has detected over 12,000 multi-station meteors, including meteors from at least 53 different meteor showers. The network is used for speed distribution determination, characterization of meteor showers and sporadic sources, and for informing the public on bright meteor events. The NASA Wide Field Meteor Network was established in December of 2012 with two cameras and expanded to eight cameras in December of 2014. The two camera configuration saw 5470 meteors over two years of operation with two cameras, and has detected 3423 meteors in the first five months of operation (Dec 12, 2014 - May 12, 2015) with eight cameras. We expect to see over 10,000 meteors per year with the expanded system. The cameras have a 20 degree field of view and an approximate limiting meteor magnitude of +5. The network's primary goal is determining the nightly shower and sporadic meteor fluxes. Both camera networks function almost fully autonomously with little human interaction required for upkeep and analysis. The cameras send their data to a central server for storage and automatic analysis. Every morning the servers automatically generates an e-mail and web page containing an analysis of the previous night's events. The current status of the networks will be described, alongside with preliminary results. In addition, future projects, CCD photometry and broadband meteor color camera system, will be discussed.
Kingery, A. M.↗
Physical Characteristics of Asteroid-like Comet Nucleus C/2001 OG108 (LONEOS)
For many years several investigators have suggested that some portion of the near-Earth asteroid population may actually be extinct cometary nuclei. Evidence used to support these hypotheses was based on: observations of asteroid orbits and associated meteor showers (e.g. 3200 Phaethon and the Geminid meteor shower); low activity of short period comet nuclei, which implied nonvolatile surface crusts (e.g. Neujmin 1, Arend-Rigaux); and detections of transient cometary activity in some near-Earth asteroids (e.g. 4015 Wilson-Harrington). Recent investigations have suggested that approximately 5-10% of the near- Earth asteroid population may be extinct comets. However if members of the near-Earth asteroid population are extinct cometary nuclei, then there should be some objects within this population that are near their final stages of evolution and so should demonstrate only low levels of activity. The recent detections of coma from near-Earth object 2001 OG108 have renewed interest in this possible comet-asteroid connection. This paper presents the first high quality ground-based near-infrared reflectance spectrum of a comet nucleus combined with detailed lightcurve and albedo measurements.
Abell, P. A.↗
Timed Collections in the NASA Cosmic Dust Aircraft Collected Particle Collection Including Previous Collectors
The NASA Cosmic Dust Collections includes a collection of interplanetary particles gathered using high-altitude aircraft (the Aircraft Collected Particle collection, or ACP). These particles include cosmic-origin particles as well as particles of terrestrial origin such as volcanic ash, solid rocket motor effluent, and terrestrial dust. The cosmic-origin dust comes from two principal sources - material originating from the diffuse interplanetary background which are uncoupled from the orbits of larger bodies, and cometary-origin particles which are dynamically coupled with the orbits of their parent bodies to form dust streams. These dust stream particles generate short-lived, annual meteor showers and are important because, if they can be identified as originating from a given dust stream, they can be studied in the laboratory as samples of a specific comet. Collecting these particles requires dedicated ACP flights which are timed to coincide with a specific meteor shower. These “timed collections” hold the promise of providing samples from a suite of comets including those never visited by spacecraft [1-3]. This abstract describes a recent (Dec 2020) timed collection attempt, lists previous timed collections with collected particles available for request from the NASA Cosmic Dust Collections, as well as listing ACP collectors which were collected when no meteor showers were active for potential use as control samples.
cosmic dust↗
Comet Tempel-Tuttle and the Leonid meteors
The distribution of dust surrounding periodic comet Tempel-Tuttle has been mapped by analyzing the associated Leonid meteor shower data over the 902-1969 interval. The majority of dust ejected from the parent comet evolves to a position lagging the comet and outside the comet's orbit. Hence, it appears that radiation pressure and planetary perturbations, rather than ejection processes, control the dynamic evolution of the Leonid particles. Significant Leonid meteor showers are possible roughly 2500 days before or after the parent comet reaches perihelion, but only if the comet passes closer than 0.025 AU inside or 0.010 AU outside the earth's orbit. Although the conditions in 1998-1999 are optimum for a significant Leonid meteor shower, the event is not certain because the dust particle distribution near the comet is far from uniform. The orbit of comet Tempel-Tuttle has been redetermined for the 1366-1966 observed interval.
Yeomans, D. K.↗
Recognizing Leonid Meteoroids Among The Collected Startospheric Dust
Three chemical groups of primary "silicate" spheres <30 micron in diameter of cometary origin were collected in the lower stratosphere between 1981 May and 1994 July. The "silicate" sphere abundances represent an annual background from contributions by sporadic meteor and weak annual meteor shower activities. During two collection periods, from 06/22 until 08/18, 1983 (U2015), and from 09/15-12/15, 1981 (W7027/7029), a higher number of spheres was collected compared to other periods of the year represented by the other collectors studied here. This study links two different data sets, viz. the NASA/JSC Cosmic Dust Catalogs and peak activities of annual meteor showers, and identified high-velocity cometary sources for collected stratospheric "silicate" spheres. The majority of spheres on flag U2015 may originate from comet P/Swift-Tuttle (Perseids), while the majority of spheres on flags W7027/7029 could be from comet P/Halley (Orionids) or comet P/Tempel-Tuttle (Leonids). Variations in relative proportions of the Mg,Si,Ca +/- Al, Mg,Si +/- Fe and Al,Si,Ca spheres may offer a hint of chemical differences among high-velocity comets. Proof for the findings reported here might be obtained by targeted cosmic dust collections in the lower stratosphere including periods of meteor shower and storm activity.
Rietmeijer, Frans J. M.↗
Possible shower outburst in December 2023 associated with comet 46P/Wirtanen
This document supplements the 2023 meteor shower activity forecast for low Earth orbit. We advise spacecraft operators that a possible shower outburst associated with comet 46P/Wirtanen is predicted for December 12, 2023, two days prior to the Geminid peak. If the outburst occurs, activity will be brief but could rival that of the Geminid meteor shower at small particle sizes
Althea Moorhead↗
Optical electronics for meteor observations
Spectral observations of meteors have been carried out for several years using an optical electronics facility. Interest has centered on faint meteors and their trails in the period of intensive meteor showers. Over 800 meteors were registered during the observation period, with spectrograms obtained for 170 of these. A total of 86 meteors were photographed from two sites and for 25 of these spectrograms of the meteors as well as their trails were obtained. All meteors have undergone routine processing in order to determine atmospheric characteristics. Results are discussed.
Shafiev, R. I.↗