SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “MPC”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 91 records · Page 5

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2023

TDCOSMO. XII. Improved Hubble constant measurement from lensing time delays using spatially resolved stellar kinematics of the lens galaxy

Strong-lensing time delays enable measurement of the Hubble constant ($H_{0}$) independently of other traditional methods. The main limitation to the precision of time-delay cosmography is mass-sheet degeneracy (MSD). Some of the previous TDCOSMO analyses broke the MSD by making standard assumptions about the mass density profile of the lens galaxy, reaching 2% precision from seven lenses. However, this approach could potentially bias the $H_0$ measurement or underestimate the errors. For this work, we broke the MSD for the first time using spatially resolved kinematics of the lens galaxy in RXJ1131$-$1231 obtained from the Keck Cosmic Web Imager spectroscopy, in combination with previously published time delay and lens models derived from Hubble Space Telescope imaging. This approach allowed us to robustly estimate $H_0$, effectively implementing a maximally flexible mass model. Following a blind analysis, we estimated the angular diameter distance to the lens galaxy $D_{\rm d} = 865_{-81}^{+85}$ Mpc and the time-delay distance $D_{\Delta t} = 2180_{-271}^{+472}$ Mpc, giving $H_0 = 77.1_{-7.1}^{+7.3}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$ - for a flat $\Lambda$ cold dark matter cosmology. The error budget accounts for all uncertainties, including the MSD inherent to the lens mass profile and the line-of-sight effects, and those related to the mass-anisotropy degeneracy and projection effects. Our new measurement is in excellent agreement with those obtained in the past using standard simply parametrized mass profiles for this single system ($H_0 = 78.3^{+3.4}_{-3.3}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$) and for seven lenses ($H_0 = 74.2_{-1.6}^{+1.6}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$), or for seven lenses using single-aperture kinematics and the same maximally flexible models used by us ($H_0 = 73.3^{+5.8}_{-5.8}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$). This agreement corroborates the methodology of time-delay cosmography.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hybrid-RL-MPC4CLR (Hybird-Reinforcement-Learning-Model-Predictive-Control-for-Reserve-Policy-Assisted-Critical-Load-Restoration-in-Distribution-Grids)

Hybrid-RL-MPC4CLR was developed as a hybrid controller for active distribution grid critical load restoration, combining deep reinforcement learning (RL) and model predictive control (MPC) aiming at maximizing total restored load following an extreme event. The RL determines a policy for quantifying operating reserve requirements, thereby hedging against uncertainty, while the MPC models grid operations incorporating the RL policy actions (i.e., reserve requirements), renewable (wind and solar) power predictions, and load demand forecasts. The developers formulated the reserve requirement determination problem as a sequential decision-making problem based on the Markov Decision Process (MDP) and design an RL learning environment based on the OpenAI Gym framework and MPC simulation. The RL agent reward and MPC objective function aim to maximize and monotonically increase total restored load and minimize load shedding and renewable power curtailment. The software is developed using various software packages in Python. The MPC's optimal power flow (OPF) model is implemented using the Pyomo package, the RL simulation environment is implemented using the MPC simulation with various scenarios of renewable energy and load demand profiles and power outage beginning times, based on the OpenAI Gym framework. The RL agent training is performed using the RLlib Ray package. The RL algorithm is trained offline using historical forecasts of renewable generation and load demand profiles. Simulation analysis and performance tests are conducted using a modified IEEE 13-bus distribution test feeder containing wind turbine, photovoltaic, microturbine, and battery.

Eseye, Abinet Tesfaye↗

DOE OSTI2022

Nonlinear post-compression in multi-pass cells in the mid-IR region using bulk materials

We numerically investigate the regime of nonlinear pulse compression at mid-IR wavelengths in a multi-pass cell (MPC) containing a dielectric plate. This post-compression setup allows for ionization-free spectral broadening and self-compression while mitigating self-focusing effects. We find that self-compression occurs for a wide range of MPC and pulse parameters and derive scaling rules that enable its optimization. We also reveal the solitonic dynamics of the pulse propagation in the MPC and its limitations and show that spatiotemporal/spectral couplings can be mitigated for appropriately chosen parameters. In addition, we reveal the formation of spectral features akin to quasi-phase matched degenerate four-wave mixing. Finally, we present two case studies of self-compression at 3-μm and 6-μm wavelengths using pulse parameters compatible with driving high-field physics experiments. The simulations presented in this paper set a framework for future experimental work using few-cycle pulses at mid-IR wavelengths.

Carlson, D. (ORCID:0000000346836463)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Field Performance of Commercial Building Load Flexibility Using Model Predictive Control

Model Predictive Control (MPC) applied to buildings is starting to see some commercial adoption by companies. However, it is hard to estimate if relative energy cost savings are enough to justify the cost of MPC implementation with few reported demonstrations. In small commercial and residential buildings, a one size-fits-all solution can help reduce implementation costs, while in very large buildings or districts the potential energy cost savings magnitude can cover more tailored solutions. This estimation becomes harder for medium to large commercial buildings, where a one-size-fits-all solution cannot be adopted and potential energy cost savings might not be sufficient to cover a tailored solution. Therefore, value propositions in addition to energy efficiency alone can make MPC technology more attractive through additional energy cost savings. One such value proposition is load shifting in response to dynamic electricity prices. On this aspect, MPC is a key technology to unlock building thermal mass for energy flexibility in response to electric grid conditions. This study shows the experimental results of MPC control of an office building in Berkeley, where different dynamic electricity price profiles were used in the MPC objective function to shift the building load and to calculate hypothetical electricity costs. Results show potential 50% cost savings with respect to the existing controller with the dynamic price scenario.

Zanetti, Ettore↗

DOE OSTI2021

Efficient Detection of Emission-line Galaxies in the Cl0016+1609 and MACSJ1621.4+3810 Supercluster Filaments Using SITELLE

We observe a system of filaments and clusters around Cl0016+1609 and MACSJ1621.4+3810 using the SITELLE Fourier transform spectrograph at the Canada–France–Hawaii Telescope. For Cl0016+1609 (z = 0.546), the observations span an 11.8 Mpc × 4.3 Mpc region along an eastern filament that covers the main cluster core, as well as two 4.3 Mpc × 4.3 Mpc regions that each cover southern subclumps. For MACSJ1621.4+3810 (z = 0.465), 3.9 Mpc × 3.9 Mpc around the main cluster core is covered. We present the frequency and location of the emission-line galaxies and their emission-line images, and calculate the star formation rates, specific star formation rates, and merger statistics. In Cl0016+1609, we find 13 [O ii] 3727 Å emitting galaxies with star formation rates between 0.2 and 14.0 M {sub ⊙} yr{sup −1}. Of these, 91{sub −10}{sup +3}% are found in regions with moderate local galaxy density, avoiding the dense cluster cores. These galaxies follow the main filament of the superstructure and are mostly blue and disky, with several showing close companions and merging morphologies. In MACSJ1621.4+3810, we find 10 emission-line sources. All are blue (100{sub −15}{sup +0}%), with 40{sub −12}{sup +16}% classified as disky and 60{sub −16}{sup +12}% as merging systems. Eight avoid the cluster core (80{sub −17}{sup +7}%), but two (20{sub −7}{sup +17}%) are found near high-density regions, including the brightest cluster galaxy (BCG). These observations push the spectroscopic study of galaxies in filaments beyond z ∼ 0.3 to z ∼ 0.5. Their efficient confirmation is paramount to their usefulness as more galaxy surveys come online.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Completeness of the NASA/IPAC Extragalactic Database (NED) Local Volume Sample

We introduce the NASA/IPAC Extragalactic Database (NED) Local Volume Sample (NED-LVS), a subset of ~1.9 million objects with distances out to 1000 Mpc. We use UV and IR fluxes available in NED from all-sky surveys to derive physical properties, and estimate the completeness relative to the expected local luminosity density. The completeness relative to near-IR luminosities (which traces a galaxy's stellar mass) is roughly 100% at D < 30 Mpc and remains moderate (70%) out to 300 Mpc. For brighter galaxies (≳L * ), NED-LVS is ~100% complete out to ~400 Mpc. When compared to other local Universe samples (GLADE and HECATE), all three are ~100% complete below 30 Mpc. At distances beyond ~80 Mpc, NED-LVS is more complete than both GLADE and HECATE by ~10%–20%. NED-LVS is the underlying sample for the NED gravitational-wave follow-up service (NED-GWF), which provides prioritized lists of host candidates for GW events within minutes of alerts issued by the LIGO–Virgo–KAGRA collaboration. We test the prioritization of galaxies in the volume of GW170817 by three physical properties, where we find that both stellar mass and inverse specific star formation rate place the correct host galaxy in the top 10. In addition, NED-LVS can be used for a wide variety of other astrophysical studies: galaxy evolution, star formation, large-scale structure, galaxy environments, and more. The data in NED are updated regularly, and NED-LVS will be updated concurrently. Consequently, NED-LVS will continue to provide an increasingly complete sample of galaxies for a multitude of astrophysical research areas for years to come.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

CATS: The Hubble Constant from Standardized TRGB and Type Ia Supernova Measurements

The tip of the red giant branch (TRGB) provides a luminous standard candle for constructing distance ladders to measure the Hubble constant. In practice, its measurements via edge-detection response (EDR) are complicated by the apparent fuzziness of the tip and the multipeak landscape of the EDR. Previously, we optimized an unsupervised algorithm, Comparative Analysis of TRGBs, to minimize the variance among multiple halo fields per host without relying on individualized choices, achieving state-of-the-art ~<0.05 mag distance measures for optimal data. Here we apply this algorithm to an expanded sample of SN Ia hosts to standardize these to multiple fields in the geometric anchor, NGC 4258. In concert with the Pantheon+ SN Ia sample, this analysis produces a (baseline) result of H 0 = 73.22 ± 2.06 km s -1 Mpc -1 . The largest difference in H 0 between this and similar studies employing the TRGB derives from corrections for SN survey differences and local flows used in the most recent SN Ia compilations that were absent in earlier studies. The SN-related differences total ~2.0 km s -1 Mpc -1 . A smaller share, ~1.4 km s -1 Mpc -1 , results from the inhomogeneity of the TRGB calibration across the distance ladder. We employ a grid of 108 variants around the optimal TRGB algorithm and find that the median of the variants is 72.94 ± 1.98 km s -1 Mpc -1 with an additional uncertainty due to algorithm choices of 0.83 km s -1 Mpc -1 . None of these TRGB variants result in an H 0 of less than 71.6 km s -1 Mpc -1 .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1990

Isolated galaxies, pairs, and groups of galaxies

The authors searched for isolated galaxies, pairs and groups of galaxies in the CfA survey (Huchra et al. 1983). It was assumed that the distances to galaxies are given by R = V/H sub o, where H sub o = 100 km s(exp -1) Mpc(exp -1) and R greater than 6 Mpc. The searching procedure is close to those, applied to find superclusters of galaxies (Kalinkov and Kuneva 1985, 1986). A sphere with fixed radius r (asterisk) is described around each galaxy. The mean spatial density in the sphere is m. Let G (sup 1) be any galaxy and G (sup 2) be its nearest neighbor at a distance R sub 2. If R sub 2 exceeds the 95 percent quintile in the distribution of the distances of the second neighbors, then G (sup 1) is an isolated galaxy. Let the midpoint of G (sup 1) and G (sup 2) be O sub 2 and r sub 2=R sub 2/2. For the volume V sub 2, defined with the radius r sub 2, the density D sub 2 less than k mu, the galaxy G (sup 2) is a single one and the procedure for searching for pairs and groups, beginning with this object is over and we have to pass to another object. Here the authors present the groups - isolated and nonisolated - with n greater than 3, found in the CfA survey in the Northern galactic hemisphere. The parameters used are k = 10 and r (asterisk) = 5 Mpc. Table 1 contains: (1) the group number, (2) the galaxy, nearest to the multiplet center, (3) multiplicity n, (4) the brightest galaxy if it is not listed in (2); (5) and (6) are R.A. and Dec. (1950), (7) - mean distance D in Mpc. Further there are the mean density rho (8) of the multiplet (galaxies Mpc (exp -3), (9) the density rho (asterisk) for r (asterisk) = 5 Mpc and (10) the density rho sub g for the group with its nearest neighbor. The parenthesized digits for densities in the last three columns are powers of ten.

Kuneva, I.↗

NASA NTRS1988

An adaptive identification and control scheme for large space structures

A unified identification and control scheme capable of achieving space at form performance objectives under nominal or failure conditions is described. Preliminary results are also presented, showing that the methodology offers much promise for effective robust control of large space structures. The control method is a multivariable, adaptive, output predictive controller called Model Predictive Control (MPC). MPC uses a state space model and input reference trajectories of set or tracking points to adaptively generate optimum commands. For a fixed model, MPC processes commands with great efficiency, and is also highly robust. A key feature of MPC is its ability to control either nonminimum phase or open loop unstable systems. As an output controller, MPC does not explicitly require full state feedback, as do most multivariable (e.g., Linear Quadratic) methods. Its features are very useful in LSS operations, as they allow non-collocated actuators and sensors. The identification scheme is based on canonical variate analysis (CVA) of input and output data. The CVA technique is particularly suited for the measurement and identification of structural dynamic processes - that is, unsteady transient or dynamically interacting processes such as between aerodynamics and structural deformation - from short, noisy data. CVA is structured so that the identification can be done in real or near real time, using computationally stable algorithms. Modeling LSS dynamics in 1-g laboratories has always been a major impediment not only to understanding their behavior in orbit, but also to controlling it. In cases where the theoretical model is not confirmed, current methods provide few clues concerning additional dynamical relationships that are not included in the theoretical models. CVA needs no a priori model data, or structure; all statistically significant dynamical states are determined using natural, entropy-based methods. Heretofore, a major limitation in applying adaptive controllers to LSS problems has been the requirement for accurate models. We feel that MPC coupled with the CVA identification scheme will resolve this limitation. The results are based on research performed under an SBIR grant, administered by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research.

Carroll, J. V.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Power spectrum, correlation function, and tests for luminosity bias in the CfA redshift survey

We describe and apply a method for directly computing the power spectrum for the galaxy distribution in the extension of the Center for Astrophysics Redshift Survey. Tests show that our technique accurately reproduces the true power spectrum for k greater than 0.03 h Mpc(exp -1). The dense sampling and large spatial coverage of this survey allow accurate measurement of the redshift-space power spectrum on scales from 5 to approximately 200 h(exp -1) Mpc. The power spectrum has slope n approximately equal -2.1 on small scales (lambda less than or equal 25 h(exp -1) Mpc) and n approximately -1.1 on scales 30 less than lambda less than 120 h(exp -1) Mpc. On larger scales the power spectrum flattens somewhat, but we do not detect a turnover. Comparison with N-body simulations of cosmological models shows that an unbiased, open universe CDM model (OMEGA h = 0.2) and a nonzero cosmological constant (CDM) model (OMEGA h = 0.24, lambda(sub zero) = 0.6, b = 1.3) match the CfA power spectrum over the wavelength range we explore. The standard biased CDM model (OMEGA h = 0.5, b = 1.5) fails (99% significance level) because it has insufficient power on scales lambda greater than 30 h(exp -1) Mpc. Biased CDM with a normalization that matches the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) anisotropy (OMEGA h = 0.5, b = 1.4, sigma(sub 8) (mass) = 1) has too much power on small scales to match the observed galaxy power spectrum. This model with b = 1 matches both Cosmic Background Explorer Satellite (COBE) and the small-scale power spect rum but has insufficient power on scales lambda approximately 100 h(exp -1) Mpc. We derive a formula for the effect of small-scale peculiar velocities on the power spectrum and combine this formula with the linear-regime amplification described by Kaiser to compute an estimate of the real-space power spectrum. Two tests reveal luminosity bias in the galaxy distribution: First, the amplitude of the pwer spectrum is approximately 40% larger for the brightest 50% of galaxies in volume-limited samples that have M(sub lim) greater than M*. This bias in the power spectrum is independent of scale, consistent with the peaks-bias paradigm for galaxy formation. Second, the distribution of local density around galaxies shows that regions of moderate and high density contain both very bright (M less than M* = -19.2 + 5 log h) and fainter galaxies, but that voids preferentially harbor fainter galaxies (approximately 2 sigma significance level).

Park, Changbom↗

NASA NTRS1994

Velocity correlations of galaxy clusters

We determine the velocity correlation function, pairwise peculiar velocity difference, and rms pairwise peculiar velocity dispersion of rich clusters of galaxies, as a function of pair separation, for three cosmological models: Omega = 1 and Omega = 0.3 cold dark matter (CDM), and Omega = 0.3 primeval baryonic isocurvature (PBI) models (all flat and Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE)-normalized). We find that close cluster pairs, with separation r is less than or equal to 10/h Mpc, exhibit strong attractive peculiar velocities in all models; the cluster pairwise velocities depend sensitively on the model. The mean pairwise attractive velocity of clusters on 5/h Mpc scale ranges from approximately 1700 km/s for Omega = 1 CDM to approximately 1000 km/s for PBI to approximately 700 km/s for Omega = 0.3 CDM. The small-scale pairwise velocities depend also on cluster mass: richer, more massive clusters exhibit stronger attractive velocities than less massive clusters. On large scales, from approximately 20 to 200/h Mpc, the cluster peculiar velocities are increasingly dominated by bulk and random motions; they are independent of cluster mass. The cluster velocity correlation function is negative on small scales for Omega = 1 and Omega = 0.3 CDM, indicating strong pairwise motion relative to bulk motion on small scales; PBI exhibits relatively larger bulk motions. The cluster velocity correlation function is positive on very large scales, from r approximately 10/h Mpc to r approximately 200/h Mpc, for all models. These positive correlations, which decrease monotonically with scale, indicate significant bulk motions of clusters up to approximately 200/h Mpc. The strong dependence of the cluster velocity functions on models, especially at small separations, makes them useful tools in constraining cosmological models when compared with observations.

Cen, Renyue↗

NASA NTRS2008

Intelligent Engine Systems: Adaptive Control

We have studied the application of the baseline Model Predictive Control (MPC) algorithm to the control of main fuel flow rate (WF36), variable bleed valve (AE24) and variable stator vane (STP25) control of a simulated high-bypass turbofan engine. Using reference trajectories for thrust and turbine inlet temperature (T41) generated by a simulated new engine, we have examined MPC for tracking these two reference outputs while controlling a deteriorated engine. We have examined the results of MPC control for six different transients: two idle-to-takeoff transients at sea level static (SLS) conditions, one takeoff-to-idle transient at SLS, a Bode power command and reverse Bode power command at 20,000 ft/Mach 0.5, and a reverse Bode transient at 35,000 ft/Mach 0.84. For all cases, our primary focus was on the computational effort required by MPC for varying MPC update rates, control horizons, and prediction horizons. We have also considered the effects of these MPC parameters on the performance of the control, with special emphasis on the thrust tracking error, the peak T41, and the sizes of violations of the constraints on the problem, primarily the booster stall margin limit, which for most cases is the lone constraint that is violated with any frequency.

Gibson, Nathan↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Model Predictive Control Study for an Electrified Turbofan Engine

A control sensitivity study is conducted for electrified aircraft propulsion concepts using a publicly available turbofan engine simulation. A Proportional-Integral (PI) controller serves as a baseline for comparison against an advanced Model Predictive Control (MPC) approach. MPC is used in the control scheme to allow for subsystem coordination of engine and electric power loads. The electrified turbofan engine includes electric machines to augment the amount of torque being applied to the spools of the engine during transient phases of operation. Power augmentation allows for energy to be stored or exhausted in a manner that increases the fuel efficiency of the engine, reducing aircraft emissions and noise. The study compares the fan speed, high pressure compressor stall margin, and low pressure compressor stall margin against the baseline PI control system, an MPC system without electric machines, and an MPC system with electric machines. The MPC system with electric machines is optimized using the sample time, control horizon and prediction horizon. The MPC design provided a stable damped response as desired and allowed operability margins to be maintained

Electrified Aircraft Propulsion↗

DOE OSTI2026

Prime Time for Model-Predictive Control? Assessing the Technical and Market Readiness of Advanced Controls in Buildings

Despite three decades of extensive research and field testing that have consistently validated the benefits of Model Predictive Control (MPC) in building applications, the technology has seen limited market adoption. This paper evaluates the readiness of MPC for widespread deployment, showcases recent demonstrations and field tests across diverse building types, including residential, small commercial, large commercial, and campus settings. Our results demonstrate that MPC can optimize system operations to achieve load shifting, minimize curtailment of on-site generation, and reduce energy costs by up to 80 %, while maintaining or improving occupant comfort. We also show that MPC can effectively control large assets, such as MW-sized thermal storage systems, and respond to dynamic pricing signals. However, achieving scale remains difficult due to labor-intensive workflows, reliance on a “PhD-in-the-loop” for MPC design and maintenance, susceptibility to fragile data infrastructure, and persistent workforce education and acceptance barriers. To bridge this gap, we outline a transition from bespoke, labor intensive prototypes toward streamlined, segment-targeted deployment strategies that leverage model templates, semantic tools, and generative AI. By automating control configuration and reducing engineering effort, these recommendations provide a pathway for transforming successful research demonstrations into scalable, market ready solutions for MPC-based controls.

Pritoni, Marco↗

DOE OSTI2023

Encrypted model predictive control design for security to cyberattacks

Abstract In recent years, cyber‐security of networked control systems has become crucial, as these systems are vulnerable to targeted cyberattacks that compromise the stability, integrity, and safety of these systems. In this work, secure and private communication links are established between sensor–controller and controller–actuator elements using semi‐homomorphic encryption to ensure cyber‐security in model predictive control (MPC) of nonlinear systems. Specifically, Paillier cryptosystem is implemented for encryption‐decryption operations in the communication links. Cryptosystems, in general, work on a subset of integers. As a direct consequence of this nature of encryption algorithms, quantization errors arise in the closed‐loop MPC of nonlinear systems. Thus, the closed‐loop encrypted MPC is designed with a certain degree of robustness to the quantization errors. Furthermore, the trade‐off between the accuracy of the encrypted MPC and the computational cost is discussed. Finally, two chemical process examples are employed to demonstrate the implementation of the proposed encrypted MPC design.

Suryavanshi, Atharva↗

DOE OSTI2022

Model predictive control for demand flexibility: Real-world operation of a commercial building with photovoltaic and battery systems

Hundreds of studies have investigated Model Predictive Control (MPC) for the optimal operation of building energy systems in the past two decades. However, MPC field tests are still uncommon, especially for small- and medium-sized commercial buildings and for buildings integrated with onsite renewables. This paper describes the implementation and the long-term performance evaluation of an MPC controller in a small commercial building equipped with behind-the-meter photovoltaics and electrochemical batteries. MPC controls space conditioning, commercial refrigeration, and the battery system. We tested two types of demand flexibility applications in the field: electricity bill minimization under time-of-use tariffs and responses to grid flexibility events. Results show that the proposed controller achieves 12% of annual electricity cost savings and 34% peak demand reduction against the baseline, while respecting thermal comfort and food safety. The field tests also demonstrate the ability of the MPC controller to provide a multitude of grid services including real-time pricing, demand limiting, load shedding, load shifting, and load tracking, using the same optimization framework.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

A neural-network-enhanced parameter-varying framework for multi-objective model predictive control applied to buildings

Management of the electrical grid is becoming more complex due to the increased penetration of alternative energy generation technologies and a broadening diversity of electric loads. This complexity creates challenges in balancing demand and generation that can increase the potential for grid instabilities. One effective way to address this issue is to leverage previously unexploited demand flexibility through advanced control strategies. In this work, we propose an advanced control method, called adaptive neural parameter-varying model predictive control (ANPV-MPC), to control the temperature and energy consumption of a building via its Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning system. ANPV-MPC combines key ideas in parameter-varying control, adaptive control, and online learning strategies to bridge the gap between computationally efficient linear model predictive control and more accurate nonlinear model predictive control. The novelty in ANPV-MPC is the use of a physics-inspired Bayesian neural network to estimate the coefficients of the parameter-varying linear control model. The Bayesian neural network additionally provides uncertainty estimates, triggering online training to capture evolving building system conditions. We show that ANPV-MPC can approximate the building system dynamics with a 28.39% higher accuracy than traditional linear model predictive control, resulting in 36.23% better control performance without increasing complexity of the optimal control problem. ANPV-MPC also adapts in real time to previously unseen conditions using online learning, further improving its performance.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ice storage model-predictive control in an office building with PV: scenario, error and sensitivity analysis

Thermal energy storage (TES) can enable more building-sited renewable electricity generation and lower utility bill costs for buildings owners and occupants, especially when there are high demand and variable time-of-use (TOU) charges. A model predictive control (MPC) strategy can offer additional savings over a schedule-based control with added complexity and reliance on forecasts. Here, this study examines savings for medium office buildings with chiller plants in three locations with building-installed solar photovoltaics (PV) to understand the impact of MPC. Control setpoints are fixed by a schedule-based control or optimized by nonlinear MPC. These control setpoints are actuated within EnergyPlus building models to simulate the utility cost of the chiller plant. NLP solutions can be unstable or unrealistic, but our results show that by regularizing the NLP, the solutions can be reasonably followed by the building model. MPC models make simplifications that lead to errors once the controller is participating in and changing the operation of the building. These errors average 9 % across the cases, showing that the most important parts of the system are represented. The no-thermal load costs are computed to show that the optimization can in some cases achieve both the minimum TOU and minimum monthly demand costs by demand management while reducing TOU energy costs by energy arbitrage. The MPC saves 35–66 % in the annual chiller plant operating costs, which is an additional savings above the schedule by 1–33 %. PV and TES are complementary and mostly independent, but a load with PV often results in better performance for the schedule. Our case study and sensitivity analysis show the importance of modeling and optimization for complex rates, but also the circumstances wherein a simpler strategy achieves the same performance with less potential for error.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗