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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2022

Arizona Water Resources Ii: Utilizing Aerial Imagery and Nasa Earth Observations to Assess Pinyon-Juniper Tree Mortality in Flagstaff, AZ

Pinyon-juniper woodlands (PJW) provide critical and resilient habitat for the local mammal and small bird species of Arizona's northern xeric environment. Drought in Arizona has been persistent for many decades, yet in 2021 PJW experienced a mass tree mortality event at the Wupatki National Monument (WNM) and in other areas across the American Southwest. Previously, researchers at the National Park Service (NPS) and the team from the NASA DEVELOP National Program attempted to quantify the extent of mortality in Northern Arizona between 2015 and 2021 using high resolution National Agricultural Imagery Program (NAIP) aerial photographs. This project aimed to improve the previous term’s methodology and expanded the comparison of the post-mortality event in 2021 to include tree cover assessments for 2017 and 2019. In this iteration, the team utilized NAIP imagery in conjunction with Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools (LANDFIRE) to calculate the total difference in PJW mortality using an unsupervised classification model trained from multi-date Modified Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index (MSAVI) and the Visible Atmospherically Resistant Index (VARI) data for the study area. The research also assessed correlations between tree mortality and environmental factors using Western Land Data Assimilation System (WLDAS) modelled climate data. Average PJW mortality from 2015 to 2021 was 21.63% including 19.8% in WNM with the vast majority of dieback occurring between 2019 and 2021. The correlations were weak with the most correlated variables being bare soil evaporation (0.15), rainfall (0.14), groundwater storage (0.13), and wind speed (0.12), perhaps indicating drought as a likely driver of PJW mortality.

pinyon-juniper woodlands↗
DOE OSTI2015

Prolonged experimental drought reduces plant hydraulic conductance and transpiration and increases mortality in a piñon–juniper woodland

Abstract Plant hydraulic conductance ( k s ) is a critical control on whole‐plant water use and carbon uptake and, during drought, influences whether plants survive or die. To assess long‐term physiological and hydraulic responses of mature trees to water availability, we manipulated ecosystem‐scale water availability from 2007 to 2013 in a piñon pine ( Pinus edulis ) and juniper ( Juniperus monosperma ) woodland. We examined the relationship between k s and subsequent mortality using more than 5 years of physiological observations, and the subsequent impact of reduced hydraulic function and mortality on total woody canopy transpiration ( E C ) and conductance ( G C ). For both species, we observed significant reductions in plant transpiration ( E ) and k s under experimentally imposed drought. Conversely, supplemental water additions increased E and k s in both species. Interestingly, both species exhibited similar declines in k s under the imposed drought conditions, despite their differing stomatal responses and mortality patterns during drought. Reduced whole‐plant k s also reduced carbon assimilation in both species, as leaf‐level stomatal conductance ( g s ) and net photosynthesis ( A n ) declined strongly with decreasing k s . Finally, we observed that chronically low whole‐plant k s was associated with greater canopy dieback and mortality for both piñon and juniper and that subsequent reductions in woody canopy biomass due to mortality had a significant impact on both daily and annual canopy E C and G C . Our data indicate that significant reductions in k s precede drought‐related tree mortality events in this system, and the consequence is a significant reduction in canopy gas exchange and carbon fixation. Our results suggest that reductions in productivity and woody plant cover in piñon–juniper woodlands can be expected due to reduced plant hydraulic conductance and increased mortality of both piñon pine and juniper under anticipated future conditions of more frequent and persistent regional drought in the southwestern United States.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Calculation of narrower confidence intervals for tree mortality rates when we know nothing but the location of the death/survival events

Abstract Many ecological applications, like the study of mortality rates, require the estimation of proportions and confidence intervals for them. The traditional way of doing this applies the binomial distribution, which describes the outcome of a series of Bernoulli trials. This distribution assumes that observations are independent and the probability of success is the same for all the individual observations. Both assumptions are obviously false in many cases. I show how to apply bootstrap and the Poisson binomial distribution (a generalization of the binomial distribution) to the estimation of proportions. Any information at the individual level would result in better (narrower) confidence intervals around the estimation of proportions. As a case study, I applied this method to the calculation of mortality rates in a forest plot of tropical trees in Lambir Hills National Park, Malaysia. I calculated central estimates and 95% confidence intervals for species‐level mortality rates for 1,007 tree species. I used a very simple model of spatial dependence in survival to estimate individual‐level risk of mortality. The results obtained by accounting for heterogeneity in individual‐level risk of mortality were comparable to those obtained with the binomial distribution in terms of central estimates, but the precision increased in virtually all cases, with an average reduction in the width of the confidence interval of ~20%. Spatial information allows the estimation of individual‐level probabilities of survival, and this increases the precision in the estimates of mortality rates. The general method described here, with modifications, could be applied to reduce uncertainty in the estimation of proportions related to any spatially structured phenomenon with two possible outcomes. More sophisticated approaches can yield better estimates of individual‐level mortality and thus narrower confidence intervals.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Quantifying mortality and injury susceptibility for two morphologically disparate fishes exposed to simulated turbine blade strike

Passage of fishes through hydropower turbines and water pumping stations may cause mortal injury as the result of exposure to blade strike impact. Laboratory trials of simulated blade strike on two morphologically distinct fishes, American eel ( Anguilla rostrata ) and bluegill sunfish ( Lepomis macrochirus ) were undertaken to assess injury and mortality rates. We hypothesized that bluegill would have comparable rates of injury and mortality to other laterally compressed fishes while anguilliform American eel would be more resistant to injury. American eel had low observed mortality rates at the highest velocity tested (13.6 m/s), but many fish were observed with vertebral fractures which we categorized as functionally dead individuals. Bluegill were more susceptible to blade strike with high rates of mortality regardless of blade thickness, velocity, or impact conditions (location, angle, or fish orientation). These data have broadened our understanding of the range of responses among entrained fishes exposed to blade strike and represent species with low (American eel) and high (bluegill) susceptibility to injury and mortality. Furthermore, our blade strike data can help inform safer turbine designs or prioritization of pumps that minimize traumatic injury and mortality of fishes during non-volitional passage through hydropower turbines or water pumping stations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fire, insect and disease‐caused tree mortalities increased in forests of greater structural diversity during drought

Abstract Structural diversity is an emerging dimension of biodiversity that accounts for size variations in organs among individuals in a community. Previous studies show significant effects of structural diversity on forest growth, but its effects on forest mortality are not known, particularly at a large scale. To address this knowledge gap, we quantified structural diversity using stem structural diversity (SSD) based on both tree diameter and height. We obtained U.S. Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data from over 2400 plots across southcentral U.S. forests that have suffered a recent drought. Using data from multiple sampling times, we calculated SSD and compared the relative importance of SSD, species diversity, functional diversity and other stand attributes in determining tree mortalities caused by fire, insects and diseases. We also used FIRETEC, a physics‐based fire model, to test the effect of SSD on canopy consumption by fire. Our results showed that (1) SSD was positively associated with tree mortalities caused by all three disturbances; (2) species richness was negatively associated with insect‐ and disease‐caused mortalities; (3) functional diversity was negatively associated with fire‐ and disease‐caused mortalities and (4) more phylogenetically related species had more similar mortality rates by insect and disease but not fire. Moreover, the FIRETEC model showed increasing canopy consumption by fire in stands with greater SSD. Together, the different tree mortalities during drought associated with SSD more consistently than the other biodiversity metrics were evaluated. Synthesis . Our results suggest that SSD could be considered in modelling forest dynamics and planning management to sustain forest health under disturbances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Variation in stem mortality rates determines patterns of above-ground biomass in Amazonian forests: implications for dynamic global vegetation models

Understanding the processes that determine above-ground biomass (AGB) in Amazonian forests is important for predicting the sensitivity of these ecosystems to environmental change and for designing and evaluating dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). AGB is determined by inputs from woody productivity [woody net primary productivity (NPP)] and the rate at which carbon is lost through tree mortality. Here, we test whether two direct metrics of tree mortality (the absolute rate of woody biomass loss and the rate of stem mortality) and/or woody NPP, control variation in AGB among 167 plots in intact forest across Amazonia. We then compare these relationships and the observed variation in AGB and woody NPP with the predictions of four DGVMs. The observations show that stem mortality rates, rather than absolute rates of woody biomass loss, are the most important predictor of AGB, which is consistent with the importance of stand size structure for determining spatial variation in AGB. The relationship between stem mortality rates and AGB varies among different regions of Amazonia, indicating that variation in wood density and height/diameter relationships also influences AGB. In contrast to previous findings, we find that woody NPP is not correlated with stem mortality rates and is weakly positively correlated with AGB. Across the four models, basin-wide average AGB is similar to the mean of the observations. However, the models consistently overestimate woody NPP and poorly represent the spatial patterns of both AGB and woody NPP estimated using plot data. In marked contrast to the observations, DGVMs typically show strong positive relationships between woody NPP and AGB. Resolving these differences will require incorporating forest size structure, mechanistic models of stem mortality and variation in functional composition in DGVMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Warming increased bark beetle-induced tree mortality by 30% during an extreme drought in California

Quantifying the responses of forest disturbances to climate warming is critical to our understanding of carbon cycles and energy balances of the Earth system. The impact of warming on bark beetle outbreaks is complex as multiple drivers of these events may respond differently to warming. Using a novel model of bark beetle biology and host tree interactions, we assessed how contemporary warming affected western pine beetle (Dendroctonus brevicomis) populations and mortality of its host, ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), during an extreme drought in the Sierra Nevada, California, United States. When compared with the field data, our model captured the western pine beetle flight timing and rates of ponderosa pine mortality observed during the drought. In assessing the influence of temperature on western pine beetles, we found that contemporary warming increased the development rate of the western pine beetle and decreased the overwinter mortality rate of western pine beetle larvae leading to increased population growth during periods of lowered tree defense. We attribute a 29.9% (95% CI: 29.4%–30.2%) increase in ponderosa pine mortality during drought directly to increases in western pine beetle voltinism (i.e., associated with increased development rates of western pine beetle) and, to a much lesser extent, reductions in overwintering mortality. These findings, along with other studies, suggest each degree (°C) increase in temperature may have increased the number of ponderosa pine killed by upwards of 35%–40% °C-1 if the effects of compromised tree defenses (15%–20%) and increased western pine beetle populations (20%) are additive. Due to the warming ability to considerably increase mortality through the mechanism of bark beetle populations, models need to consider climate's influence on both host tree stress and the bark beetle population dynamics when determining future levels of tree mortality.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Choice reaction time and grip strength as predictors of cardiovascular mortality in middle‐aged and elderly Japanese: from the Radiation Effects Research Foundation Adult Health study

Abstract Background Cognitive function and physical function are important predictors of mortality. Aim To investigate whether or not reaction time (RT) as a cognitive function and grip strength (GS) as a physical function were associated, alone or in combination, with mortality from heart disease or stroke. Methods The subjects included 4901 Adult Health Study participants in Hiroshima who had undergone RT and GS measurements, were 35–74 years old at baseline (1970–1972) and were followed until the end of 2007. Results After adjustment for other potential risk factors, RT was positively and GS was negatively associated with mortality from both heart disease and stroke. These associations were persistent in the model when adjusting simultaneously for RT, GS and other factors, but hazard ratios were attenuated. When we evaluated the associations by baseline age and gender, we found the greater hazard ratios for RT in the younger cohort, but no clear modification by age for GS. The interaction between RT and GS was statistically significant ( P = 0.012) for stroke mortality. In the stratified analyses divided using the age‐specific median value of RT or GS, the estimated hazard ratio of stroke mortality for RT was significant in participants with weak or strong GS but greater in the former, and for GS, it was only significant in participants with slow RT. Conclusion RT and GS, alone and in combination, predicted heart disease and stroke mortalities. Interventions for both cognitive function and physical function may be beneficial for the prevention of cardiovascular disease mortality.

Shimizu, Masaki↗
DOE OSTI2020

Psychological Distress and Alzheimer’s Disease Mortality in the United States: Results from the 1997–2014 National Health Interview Survey-National Death Index Record Linkage Study

Objective: This study examines the association between psychological distress and Alzheimer’s disease mortality among US adults aged ≥45. Methods: We analyzed the Kessler 6-item psychological distress scale as a risk factor for Alzheimer’s mortality using the pooled 1997–2014 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS)- National Death Index (NDI) database ( N = 265,089). Cox regression was used to model mortality as a function of psychological distress and sociodemographic and behavioral covariates. Results: The Alzheimer’s mortality risk was 97% higher (HR = 1.97; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.37, 2.84) in adults with serious psychological distress compared with those without psychological distress, controlling for sociodemographic covariates. The relative mortality risk remained statistically significant (HR = 1.49; 95% CI = 1.04, 2.13) after additional adjustment for smoking, alcohol consumption, health status, activity limitation, and body mass index. Discussion: US adults had significantly higher risks of Alzheimer’s disease mortality at higher psychological distress levels. These findings underscore the significance of addressing psychological well-being as a strategy for reducing Alzheimer’s disease mortality.

Singh, Gopal K.↗
DOE OSTI2013

Dose-Response Relationship of Physical Activity to Premature and Total All-Cause and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in Walkers

Purpose: To assess the dose-response relationships between cause-specific mortality and exercise energy expenditure in a prospective epidemiological cohort of walkers. Methods: The sample consisted of the 8,436 male and 33,586 female participants of the National Walkers’ Health Study. Walking energy expenditure was calculated in metabolic equivalents (METs, 1 MET = 3.5 ml O2/kg/min), which were used to divide the cohort into four exercise categories: category 1 (#1.07 MET-hours/d), category 2 (1.07 to 1.8 MET-hours/d), category 3 (1.8 to 3.6 MET-hours/d), and category 4 ($3.6 MET-hours/d). Competing risk regression analyses were use to calculate the risk of mortality for categories 2, 3 and 4 relative to category 1. Results: 22.9% of the subjects were in category 1, 16.1% in category 2, 33.3% in category 3, and 27.7% in category 4. There were 2,448 deaths during the 9.6 average years of follow-up. Total mortality was 11.2% lower in category 2 (P = 0.04), 32.4% lower in category 3 (P,10212) and 32.9% lower in category 4 (P = 10211) than in category 1. For underlying causes of death, the respective risk reductions for categories 2, 3 and 4 were 23.6% (P = 0.008), 35.2% (P,1025 ), and 34.9% (P = 0.0001) for cardiovascular disease mortality; 27.8% (P = 0.18), 20.6% (P = 0.07), and 31.4% (P = 0.009) for ischemic heart disease mortality; and 39.4% (P = 0.18), 63.8% (P = 0.005), and 90.6% (P = 0.002) for diabetes mortality when compared to category 1. For all related mortality (i.e., underlying and contributing causes of death combined), the respective risk reductions for categories 2, 3 and 4 were 18.7% (P = 0.22), 42.5% (P = 0.001), and 57.5% (P = 0.0001) for heart failure; 9.4% (P = 0.56), 44.3% (P = 0.0004), and 33.5% (P = 0.02) for hypertensive diseases; 11.5% (P = 0.38), 41.0% (P,1024 ), and 35.5% (P = 0.001) for dysrhythmias: and 23.2% (P = 0.13), 45.8% (P = 0.0002), and 41.1% (P = 0.005) for cerebrovascular diseases when compared to category 1. Conclusions: There are substantial health benefits to exceeding the current exercise guidelines.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Comparison of All Solid Cancer Mortality and Incidence Dose-Response in the Life Span Study of Atomic Bomb Survivors, 1958–2009

Recent analysis of all solid cancer incidence (1958–2009) in the Life Span Study (LSS) revealed evidence of upward curvature in the radiation dose response among males but not females. Upward curvature in sex-averaged excess relative risk (ERR) for all solid cancer mortality (1950–2003) was also observed in the 0–2 Gy dose range. As reasons for non-linearity in the LSS are not completely understood, we conducted dose response analyses for all solid cancer mortality and incidence applying similar methods (1958–2009 follow-up, DS02R1 doses, including subjects notin-city (NIC) at the time of the bombing) and statistical models. Incident cancers were ascertained from Hiroshima and Nagasaki cancer registries, while cause of death was ascertained from death certificates over entire Japan. The study included 105,444 LSS subjects who were alive and not known to have cancer before Jan 1, 1958 (80,205 with dose estimates and 25,239 NIC subjects). Between 1958 and 2009, there were 3.1 million person-years (PY) and 22,538 solid cancers for incidence analysis and 3.8 million PY and 15,419 solid cancer deaths for mortality analysis. We fitted sex-specific ERR models adjusted for smoking to both types of data. Over the entire range of doses, solid cancer mortality dose response exhibited a borderline significant upward curvature among males (P=0.062) and significant upward curvature among females (P=0.010); for solid cancer incidence, as before, we found a significant upward curvature among males (P=0.001) but not among females (P=0.624). The sex difference in magnitude of dose response curvature was statistically significant for cancer incidence (P=0.017) but not for cancer mortality (P=0.781). The results of analyses in the 0–2 Gy range and restricted lower dose ranges generally supported inferences made about the sex-specific dose response shape over the entire range of doses for each outcome. Patterns of sex-specific curvature by calendar period (1958–1987 vs 1988–2009) and age at exposure (0–19 vs 20–83) varied between mortality and incidence data, particularly among females, although for each outcome there was an indication of curvature among 0–19 year old male survivors in both calendar periods and among 0–19 year old female survivors in the recent period. Collectively, our findings indicate that the upward curvature in all solid cancer dose response in the LSS is neither specific to males nor to incidence data; it appears to depend on composition of case series and age at exposure or time. Further follow-up and site-specific analyses of cancer mortality and incidence will be important to confirm the emerging trend in dose response curvature among young survivors and unveil the contributing factors and sites.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2013

The critical amplifying role of increasing atmospheric moisture demand on tree mortality and associated regional die-off

Drought-induced tree mortality, including large-scale die-off events and increases in background rates of mortality, is a global phenomenon (Allen et al., 2010) that can directly impact numerous earth system properties and ecosystem goods and services (Adams et al., 2010; Breshears et al., 2011; Anderegg et al., 2013). Tree mortality is particularly of concern because of the likelihood that it will increase in frequency and extent with climate change (McDowell et al., 2008, 2011; Adams et al., 2009; McDowell, 2011; Williams et al., 2013). Recent plant science advances related to drought have focused on understanding the physiological mechanisms that not only affect plant growth and associated carbon metabolism, but also the more challenging issue of predicting plant mortality thresholds (McDowell et al., 2013). Although some advances related to mechanisms of mortality have been made and have increased emphasis on interrelationships between carbon metabolism and plant hydraulics (McDowell et al., 2011), notably few studies have specifically evaluated effects of increasing atmospheric demand for moisture (i.e., vapour pressure deficit; VPD) on rates of tree death. In this opinion article we highlight the importance of considering the key risks of future large-scale tree die-off and other mortality events arising from increased VPD. Here we focus on mortality of trees, but our point about the importance of VPD is also relevant to other vascular plants.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

Climate-Induced Mortality of Siberian Pine and Fir in the Lake Baikal Watershed, Siberia

Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) and fir (Abies sibirica) (so called "dark needle conifers", DNC) showed decreased radial growth increment within the Lake Baikal watershed since the 1980s with increasing mortality recorded since the year 2000. Tree ring width was strongly correlated with vapor pressure deficit, aridity and root zone moisture. Water stress from droughts made trees more susceptible to insect attacks causing mortality in about 10% of DNC stands within the Lake Baikal watershed. Within Siberia DNC mortality increased in the southern part of the DNC range. Biogeographically, tree mortality was located within the DNC - forest-steppes transition. Tree mortality was significantly correlated with drought and soil moisture anomalies. Within the interior of the DNC range mortality occurred within relief features with high water stress risk (i.e., steep convex south facing slopes with shallow well-drained soils). In general, DNC mortality in Siberia was induced by increased aridity and severe drought (inciting factors) in synergy with biotic attacks (contributing factor). In future climate scenarios with predicted increase in aridity DNC could be eliminated from the southern part of its current range and will be replaced by drought-resistant conifers and broadleaf species (e.g., Larix sibirica, Pinus silvestris, and Betula pubescence).

Viacheslav I Kharuk↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling the mechanisms of conifer mortality under seawater exposure

Summary Relative sea level rise (SLR) increasingly impacts coastal ecosystems through the formation of ghost forests. To predict the future of coastal ecosystems under SLR and changing climate, it is important to understand the physiological mechanisms underlying coastal tree mortality and to integrate this knowledge into dynamic vegetation models. We incorporate the physiological effect of salinity and hypoxia in a dynamic vegetation model in the Earth system land model, and used the model to investigate the mechanisms of mortality of conifer forests on the west and east coast sites of USA, where trees experience different form of sea water exposure. Simulations suggest similar physiological mechanisms can result in different mortality patterns. At the east coast site that experienced severe increases in seawater exposure, trees loose photosynthetic capacity and roots rapidly, and both storage carbon and hydraulic conductance decrease significantly within a year. Over time, further consumption of storage carbon that leads to carbon starvation dominates mortality. At the west coast site that gradually exposed to seawater through SLR, hydraulic failure dominates mortality because root loss impacts on conductance are greater than the degree of storage carbon depletion. Measurements and modeling focused on understanding the physiological mechanisms of mortality is critical to reducing predictive uncertainty.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Empirical and process-based approaches to climate-induced forest mortality models

Globally, forests store ~45% of carbon sequestered terrestrially, contribute more to the terrestrial sink per area than any other land cover type, and assimilate an important portion of anthropogenic emissions. Forests exert strong biophysical control on climate via surface energy balance, and the hydrological cycle. Widespread forest mortality in response to drought, increased temperatures, and infestation of tree pests has been observed globally, potentially threatening forests' regulation of climate. This threat has prompted great interest in understanding and predicting tree mortality due to climate variability and change, especially drought. Initial tests of hydraulic failure (mortality caused by irreversible loss of xylem conductivity from air embolism), carbon starvation (mortality due to carbohydrate limitation), insect attacks, wildfire, and their interdependence, suggest proximal causes of mortality are likely complex, co-occurring, interrelated, and variable with tree species. While the interdependent roles of carbon and water in plant mortality are consistently observed, this work is continuously prompting new questions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mortality of older construction and craft workers employed at Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear sites: Follow‐up through 2021

Background To determine if construction and trades workers formerly employed at US Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear weapons sites are at significant risk for occupational diseases, we studied the mortality experience of participants in the Building Trades National Medical Screening Program (BTMed). Methods The cohort included 26,922 participants enrolled between 1998 and 2021 and 8367 deaths. Standardized mortality ratios were calculated based on US death rates. Cox models compared construction workers (n = 22,747; 7487 deaths) to two nonconstruction subpopulations: administrative, scientific and security workers (n = 1894; 330 deaths), and all other nonconstruction workers (n = 2218; 550 deaths). Results Mortality was elevated for all causes, all cancers, cancers of the trachea, bronchus, lung, kidneys, and lymphatic and hematopoietic system, mesothelioma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), asbestosis, transportation injuries, and other injuries, particularly accidental poisonings. There were 167 deaths from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which was lower than expected using US death rates. Overall cause-specific mortality was significantly higher among construction workers than for internal comparison groups. Conclusions Construction workers employed at DOE sites have a significantly increased risk for occupational illnesses. Apart from COVID-19 deaths, this update: (1) found that mortality among construction workers is significantly elevated compared to the US population and significantly higher than in the internal comparison populations, and (2) confirmed excess risk for these workers for first employment after 1990. Cancer mortality risks are similar to the cancers identified for DOE compensation from radiation exposures. In conclusion, the high lung cancer risk supports the value of early lung cancer detection. Continued medical surveillance is important.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2012

Morphological State as a Predictor for Reintervention and Mortality After EVAR for AAA

Purpose: This study was designed to assess aorto-iliac morphological characteristics in relation to reintervention and all-cause long-term mortality in patients undergoing standard EVAR for infrarenal AAA. Methods: Patients treated with EVAR (Zenith{sup Registered-Sign} Stentgrafts, Cook) between May 1998 and February 2006 were prospectively enrolled in a computerized database where comorbidities and preoperative aneurysm morphology were entered. Reinterventions and mortality were checked until December 1, 2010. Median follow-up time was 68 months. Results: A total of 304 patients were included, of which 86% were men. Median age was 74 years. The reintervention rate was 23.4% (71/304). A greater diameter of the common iliac artery (p = 0.037; hazard ratio (HR) 1.037 [1.002-1.073]) was an independent factor for an increased number of reinterventions. The 30-day mortality rate was 3.0% (9/304). Aneurysm-related deaths due to AAA occurred in 4.9% (15/304). Five patients died due to a concomitant ruptured thoracic aortic aneurysm. The mortality until end of follow-up was 54.3% (165/304). The proportion of deaths caused by vascular diseases was 61.6%. The severity of angulation of the iliac arteries (p = 0.014; HR 1.018 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.004-1.033]) and anemia (p = 0.044; HR 2.79 [95% CI 1.029-7.556]) remained as independent factors associated with all-cause long-term mortality. The crude reintervention-free survival rate at 1, 3, and 5 years was 84.5%, 64.8%, and 51.6%, respectively. Conclusions: The initial aorto-iliac morphological state in patients scheduled for standard EVAR for AAA seems to be strongly related to the need for reinterventions and long-term mortality.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2014

Spatially resolved estimation of ozone-related mortality in the United States under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and their uncertainty

We report that the spatial pattern of the uncertainty in air pollution-related health impacts due to climate change has rarely been studied due to the lack of high-resolution model simulations, especially under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the latest greenhouse gas emission pathways. We estimated future tropospheric ozone (O 3 ) and related excess mortality and evaluated the associated uncertainties in the continental United States under RCPs. Based on dynamically downscaled climate model simulations, we calculated changes in O 3 level at 12 km resolution between the future (2057 and 2059) and base years (2001–2004) under a low-to-medium emission scenario (RCP4.5) and a fossil fuel intensive emission scenario (RCP8.5). We then estimated the excess mortality attributable to changes in O 3 . Finally, we analyzed the sensitivity of the excess mortality estimates to the input variables and the uncertainty in the excess mortality estimation using Monte Carlo simulations. O 3 -related premature deaths in the continental U.S. were estimated to be 1312 deaths/year under RCP8.5 (95 % confidence interval (CI): 427 to 2198) and ₋2118 deaths/year under RCP4.5 (95 % CI: ₋3021 to ₋1216), when allowing for climate change and emissions reduction. The uncertainty of O 3 -related excess mortality estimates was mainly caused by RCP emissions pathways. Finally, excess mortality estimates attributable to the combined effect of climate and emission changes on O 3 as well as the associated uncertainties vary substantially in space and so do the most influential input variables. Spatially resolved data is crucial to develop effective community level mitigation and adaptation policy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗