Results for “Logistic Growth” — Page 5

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis and Optimization of Test Plans for Advanced Exploration Systems Reliability and Supportability

Future crewed exploration missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) will operate farther from Earth and be logistically isolated for longer than any previous human spaceflight mission. Under these conditions, supportability and reliability willbestronger drivers of mission mass and risk than they have been in the past. Items with high failure rates, or uncertain failure rates, can result in high spares mass requirements and/or high risk on deep space missions. Testing is a critical element of system development which provides the opportunity to identify and resolve design issues, defects, or other failure modes before they cause problems during a mission. Reliability growth programs can reduce failure rates by identifying and remove failure modes via design changes, and long-duration life testing can provide valuable data to reduce failure rate estimate uncertainty and verify (to some level of confidence) that components are as reliable as expected. Testing activities take time and resources, however, and must be incorporated into program plans in order to be fully effective. This paper presents an integrated reliability test plan analysis and optimization methodology, which has been used to inform Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Life Support Systems (LSS) ground test planning for future missions. The methodology determines the optimal number of test units to purchase and allocation of test time –split between reliability growth and uncertainty reduction testing –across a given set of items in order to minimize spares mass for a given mission under constraints on total test cost and schedule. Model outputs also include expected spares mass after testing and the expected number of modifications or refurbishments during testing, both of which can inform program planning. Discussion of the model, conclusions, and future work are also presented.

Testing↗

NASA NTRS1993

Mass optical storage-tape (MOST)

In today's large mainframe and supercomputer environment there exists a continuous demand for increased performance in digital storage systems. The user need for near-line storage capacity is currently doubling every four years. In addition to higher capacity, a desire exists for higher data transfer rates, and longer term database archivability, at lower, and lower cost. Each component of this quartet of demands appears to be insatiable. Magnetic tape technology presently dominates the digital mass storage markets, but the continuous growth of requirements is drawing attention to the limitations of the technology as an archival mass storage medium. The lowest cost option currently available for long term data storage is to use magnetic tape, although it is not well suited to meeting the need for many tens of years of reliable storage. Today, the majority of magnetic tape mass storage systems are based on the IBM 3480/3490 (or compatible) tape drives. These drives offer only moderate transfer rates and relatively small increments of storage, both of which create a logistics problem due to the large numbers of cartridges necessary in a typical system and the time taken to transfer data. Both higher cartridge capacity and data transfer rates are available in some helical scan magnetic tape systems; however, these command a substantially higher price, exacerbating the cost problem, and are not compatible with most installed systems or tape databases.

Oakley, William S.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Supportability Challenges, Metrics, and Key Decisions for Future Human Spaceflight

Future crewed missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) represent a logistical challenge that is unprecedented in human space flight. Astronauts will travel farther and stay in space for longer than any previous mission, far from timely abort or resupply from Earth. Under these conditions, supportability { defined as the set of system characteristics that influence the logistics and support required to enable safe and effective operations of systems { will be a much more significant driver of space system lifecycle properties than it has been in the past. This paper presents an overview of supportability for future human space flight. The particular challenges of future missions are discussed, with the differences between past, present, and future missions highlighted. The relationship between supportability metrics and mission cost, performance, schedule, and risk is also discussed. A set of pro- posed strategies for managing supportability is presented (including reliability growth, uncertainty reduction, level of repair, commonality, redundancy, In-Space Manufacturing (ISM) (including the use of material recycling and In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) for spares and maintenance items), reduced complexity, and spares inventory decisions such as the use of predeployed or cached spares - along with a discussion of the potential impacts of each of those strategies. References are provided to various sources that describe these supportability metrics and strategies, as well as associated modeling and optimization techniques, in greater detail. Overall, supportability is an emergent system characteristic and a holistic challenge for future system development. System designers and mission planners must carefully consider and balance the supportability metrics and decisions described in this paper in order to enable safe and effective beyond-LEO human space flight.

Owens, Andrew C.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Future Food Production System Development Pulling from Space Biology Crop Growth Testing in Veggie

Preliminary crop testing using Veggie indicates the environmental conditions provided by the ISS are generally suitable for food crop production. When plant samples were returned to Earth for analysis, their levels of nutrients were comparable to Earth-grown ground controls. Veggie-grown produce food safety microbiology analysis indicated that space-grown crops are safe to consume. Produce sanitizing wipes were used on-orbit to further reduce risk of foodborne illness. Validation growth tests indicated abiotic challenges of insufficient or excess fluid delivery, potentially reduced air flow leading to excess water, elevated CO2 leading to physiological responses, and microorganisms that became opportunistic pathogens. As NASA works to develop future space food production, several areas of research to define these systems pull from the Veggie technology validation tests. Research into effective, reusable water delivery and water recovery methods for future food production systems arises from abiotic challenges observed. Additionally, impacts of elevated CO2 and refinement of fertilizer and light recipes for crops needs to be assessed. Biotic pulls include methods or technologies to effectively sanitize produce with few consumables and low inputs; work to understand the phytomicrobiome and potentially use it to protect crops or enhance growth; selection of crops with high harvest index and desirable flavors for supplemental nutrition; crops that provide psychosocial benefits, and custom space crop development. Planning for future food production in a deep space gateway or a deep space transit vehicle requires methods of handling and storing seeds, and ensuring space seeds are free of contaminants and long-lived. Space food production systems may require mechanization and autonomous operation, with preliminary testing initiated to identify operations and capabilities that are candidates for automation. Food production design is also pulling from Veggie logistics lessons, as we learn about growing at different scales and move toward developing systems that require less launch mass. Veggie will be used as a test bed for novel food production technologies. Veggie is a relatively simple precursor food production system but the knowledge gained from space biology validation tests in Veggie will have far reaching repercussions on future exploration food production.

Veggie↗

NASA NTRS2017

Future Food Production System Development Pulling From Space Biology Crop Growth Testing in Veggie

Preliminary crop testing using Veggie indicates the environmental conditions provided by the ISS are generally suitable for food crop production. When plant samples were returned to Earth for analysis, their levels of nutrients were comparable to Earth-grown ground controls. Veggie-grown produce food safety microbiology analysis indicated that space-grown crops are safe to consume. Produce sanitizing wipes were used on-orbit to further reduce risk of foodborne illness. Validation growth tests indicated abiotic challenges of insufficient or excess fluid delivery, potentially reduced air flow leading to excess water, elevated CO2 leading to physiological responses, and microorganisms that became opportunistic pathogens. As NASA works to develop future space food production, several areas of research to define these systems pull from the Veggie technology validation tests. Research into effective, reusable water delivery and water recovery methods for future food production systems arises from abiotic challenges observed. Additionally, impacts of elevated CO2 and refinement of fertilizer and light recipes for crops needs to be assessed. Biotic pulls include methods or technologies to effectively sanitize produce with few consumables and low inputs; work to understand the phytomicrobiome and potentially use it to protect crops or enhance growth; selection of crops with high harvest index and desirable flavors for supplemental nutrition; crops that provide psychosocial benefits, and custom space crop development. Planning for future food production in a deep space gateway or a deep space transit vehicle requires methods of handling and storing seeds, and ensuring space seeds are free of contaminants and long-lived. Space food production systems may require mechanization and autonomous operation, with preliminary testing initiated to identify operations and capabilities that are candidates for automation. Food production design is also pulling from Veggie logistics lessons, as we learn about growing at different scales and move toward developing systems that require less launch mass. Veggie will be used as a test bed for novel food production technologies. Veggie is a relatively simple precursor food production system but the knowledge gained from space biology validation tests in Veggie will have far reaching repercussions on future exploration food production. This work is supported by NASA.

Plants↗

NASA NTRS2009

Roadmaps and Strategies for Crop Research for Bioregenerative Life Support Systems A Compilation of Findings from NASA’s Advanced Life Support Meetings

Extensive testing with plants for bioregenerative life support systems has been conducted by NASA for nearly 40 years, both through university grants and work at NASA field centers. During this time, numerous meetings were held to develop strategies and roadmaps for implementing bioregenerative life support systems. Findings from several of these meetings are summarized in this report. In nearly all cases, the recommendations included an active ground-based research program and integration tests with other life support subsystems, followed by eventual spaceflight testing. The most recent roadmap of NASA’s Exploration Life Support Crop Element suggests a sequence of first developing a modular vegetable production unit (VPU) to provide perishable foods to supplement the crew’s diet. A similar system could then be used on the lunar surface, with additional modules added as the lunar outpost expands. Eventually, these modules could be transferred to a dedicated pressurized logistics module (PLM) for crop production. Experience from the lunar tests could then be used to conduct a similar buildup for Mars missions, where in situ food production and bioregeneration would be important for achieving outpost autonomy. To date, most trade studies of bioregenerative life support systems indicate that reducing the costs associated with crop lighting systems are key, and use of light-emitting diodes (LEDs) or direct solar lighting offers promising options. Likewise, sustaining high yields and high harvest index (% edible biomass) will be important for minimizing costs, and this can be achieved by optimizing growth environments and through selecting, breeding, and genetically engineering crops suitable for space environments. Collectively, these strategies and roadmaps suggest that a combined approach of fundamental research, hardware (plant chamber) development, and operational testing is required to achieve reliable bioregenerative life support systems.

Bioregenerative↗

NASA NTRS1978

Thermal/environmental control and life support system requirements for future space application

Thermal/environmental control systems concepts being considered for the power module and manned orbital facilities are described. To assure an economically viable program, the approach being pursued is utilization of existing hardware, where possible, and construction of orbital facilities in modular fashion to meet anticipated growth of space processing, astronomy, life science, solar/terrestrial observation, construction, etc. Configurations include Orbiter tended missions (Orbiter remains attached to orbiting facility) and freeflying manned or unmanned earth-orbiting facilities. Utilization of shuttle hardware, e. g., external tank, or the currently orbiting Skylab vehicle is being considered for orbital facilities. Studies include use of Spacelab hardware with a power module to permit extending on-orbit mission time beyond the capability of the current space transportation system. Power levels of 25 kW are being considered for the power module. Mission duration is not limited due to the modular approach and the concept of utilizing a logistics module to provide consumables' resupply capability to the orbital facility.

Hueter, U.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Method for optimal configuration of an ECLSS on the Space Station Freedom

The establishment of a permanently manned Space Station represents a substantial challenge in the design of a life support system, specifically in the need to supply a large crew for missions of extended duration. The Space Station will evolve by time phased modular increments delivered and supplied by the Space Shuttle and other advanced launch systems. With the addition of each subsequent phase or alteration of mission duties, the requirements of the Station may differ from previous phases of development. With the addition of future crews and pressurized volume throughout the lifetime of the Space Station, change-out of individual subsystems may be necessary in order to meet the performance, safety, and reliability levels required from the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS). The analysis of this system growth demands the capability for advanced, integrated assessment techniques so that the unique mission drivers during each phase and mission scenario may be identified and evaluated. In order to determine the impacts of the interdependency between the ECLSS, the crew, the various user experiments, and the other distributed systems, consideration must be given to all Space Station resources and requirements during the initial and subsequent evolution phase. Therefore, it is necessary for analysis efforts to study the long term effects of established designs. These studies must quantify the optimal degree of loop closure within the capabilities of existing and future technologies including any resulting maintenance and logistics requirements. In addition, the necessity for subsystem retrofit during the lifetime of the Station must be examined. The source of system requirements due to long term exposure to the microgravity environment is illustrated, the criticality of the ECLSS functions is reviewed, and a method is described to develop an optimal design during each configuration based on the cross-consumption of Station resources. A comparison utilizing this procedure is discussed.

Gould, Marston J.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Lunar base siting

As with any planetary body, the lunar surface is quite heterogeneous. There are widely dispersed sites of particular interest for known and potential resource availability, selenology, and lunar observatories. Discriminating characteristics include solar illumination, view of earth, local topography, engineering properties of the regolith and certain geological features, and local mineralogy and petrology. Space vehicle arrival and departure trajectories constitute a minor consideration. Over time, a variety of base sites will be developed serving different purposes. Resource-driven sites may see the fastest growth during the first decades of lunar development, but selection of the most favorable sites is likely to be driven by suitability for a combination of activities. As on earth, later development may be driven by geographical advantages of surface transportation routes. With the availability of near-constant sunlight for power generation, as well as permanently shadowed areas at cryogenic temperatures, polar sites are attractive because they require substantially less earth-launched mass and lower equipment complexity for an initial permanent base. Discovery of accessible volatiles reservoirs, either in the form of polar permafrost or gas reservoirs at other locations, would dramatically increase the attractiveness of any site from a logistical support and selenological point of view. Amid such speculation, no reliable evidence of such volatiles exist. More reliable evidence exists for areas of certain mineral concentrations, such as ilmenite, which could form a feedstock for some proposed resource extraction schemes. While tentative selections of advantageous base sites are made, new data from lunar polar orbiters and the Galileo polar flybys would be very helpful.

Staehle, Robert L.↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Effect of Updraft Entrainment on Convective Cell Deepening in Realistic Large-Eddy Simulations

Entrainment of surrounding cooler and drier air into convective updrafts is one of the key processes that influence deep convection initiation and growth. Numerous studies have investigated the effect of entrainment on isolated convective cloud growth in idealized simulations, but the importance of this effect in realistic conditions with many interacting convective clouds remains uncertain. We examine the impact of entrainment on the depth reached by convective clouds in realistic large-eddy simulations (LES) over central Argentina during the Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) field campaign. Cloudy updrafts and their associated properties are assigned to convective cells tracked with radar reflectivity signatures. Several thousand convective cells are tracked over two high convective available potential energy (CAPE) and two low CAPE cases that support cells of varying depths and intensities. Entrainment is calculated explicitly as the fluxes of air into the outer surface of each cloudy updraft. Single-predictor logistic regression models are used to determine the relative importance of updraft, near-updraft, and preconvective initiation atmospheric conditions in predicting whether convective cells become deep. We then build a multiple-predictor regression model pairing important updraft and meteorological metrics with fractional entrainment rate. The probability of cells transitioning to deep convection is most sensitive to ambient 600-hPa relative humidity (42% of total metric contribution to cloud depth predictability), followed by low-level CAPE (28%), cloud-base updraft width (19%), and fractional entrainment (11%). Thus, the initial width of the updraft along with potential buoyancy and its dilution through the midtroposphere collectively determine whether deep convection will result from shallower clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2012

Plant Science in Reduced Gravity: Lessons Learned

The effect of gravity on the growth and development of plants has been the subject of scientific investigation for over a century. The results obtained in space to test specific hypotheses on gravitropism, gene expression, seed formation, or growth rate are affected by both the primary effect of the microgravity and secondary effects of the spaceflight environment. The secondary effects of the spaceflight environment include physical effects arising from physical changes, such as the absence of buoyancy driven convective mixing, altered behavior of liquids and gases, and the environmental conditions in the spacecraft atmosphere. Thus, the design of biological experiments (e.g. cells, plants, animals, etc.) conducted in microgravity must account for changes in the physical forces, as well as the environmental conditions, imposed by the specific spaceflight vehicle and experimental hardware. In addition, researchers must become familiar with other aspects of spaceflight experiments: payload integration with hardware developers, safety documentation and crew procedures, and the logistics of conducting flight and ground controls. This report reviews the physical and environmental factors that directly and indirectly affect the results of plant science experiments in microgravity and is intended to serve as a guide in the design and implementation plant experiments in space.

Stutte, Gary W.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Historical and Future Global Irrigation Energy Consumption by Fuel and Region

Irrigation energy use is a significant component of agricultural production costs, contributing directly to the energy and emissions intensity of crop production and ultimately to food prices. Understanding the existing structure of irrigation energy consumption help achieve food-energy-water security and environmental goals. We present a comprehensive global data set detailing country-level irrigation energy consumption, emphasizing the comparative use of electric, diesel, and emerging solar pumps. To our knowledge, no such data set exists. We draw from a literature review to develop a logistic transformed regression model to estimate the shares of fuel sources for irrigation across countries over historical years to construct a global data set of country-level irrigation energy consumption by multiple fuel sources. Additionally, we compare our estimates of irrigation energy use with agricultural energy use as reported by the International Energy Agency and other external sources. We then use this data to project future irrigation energy use with the Global Change Analysis Model, which is a multisector dynamics model, to showcase the usage of this data set. Projections under the reference scenario show a global shift in fuel types for irrigation pumping, while patterns vary across regions, with India and Pakistan leading in solar-powered irrigation growth and countries like the USA and China continuing to rely primarily on grid electricity. This data set provides a resource to understand the role of irrigation fuel choices within the broader energy sector, as well as the connected agricultural, land use, and water sectors under alternative future scenarios, enabling informed decision making toward efficient agricultural practices.

Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM)↗

NASA NTRS1989

Advanced APS impacts on vehicle payloads

Advanced auxiliary propulsion system (APS) technology has the potential to both, increase the payload capability of earth-to-orbit (ETO) vehicles by reducing APS propellant mass, and simplify ground operations and logistics by reducing the number of fluids on the vehicle and eliminating toxic, corrosive propellants. The impact of integrated cryogenic APS on vehicle payloads is addressed. In this system, launch propulsion system residuals are scavenged from integral launch propulsion tanks for use in the APS. Sufficient propellant is preloaded into the APS to return to earth with margin and noncomplete scavenging assumed. No propellant conditioning is required by the APS, but ambient heat soak is accommodated. High temperature rocket materials enable the use of the unconditioned hydrogen/oxygen in the APS and are estimated to give APS rockets specific impulse of up to about 444 sec. The payload benefits are quantified and compared with an uprated monomethylhydrazine/nitrogen tetroxide system in a conservative fashion, by assuming a 25.5 percent weight growth for the hydrogen/oxygen system and a 0 percent weight growth for the uprated system. The combination of scavenging and high performance gives payload impacts which are highly mission specific. A payload benefit of 861 kg (1898 lbm) was estimated for a Space Station Freedom rendezvous mission and 2099 kg (4626 lbm) for a sortie mission, with payload impacts varying with the amount of launch propulsion residual propellants. Missions without liquid propellant scavenging were estimated to have payload penalties, however, operational benefits were still possible.

Schneider, Steven J.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Advanced APS Impacts on Vehicle Payloads

Advanced auxiliary propulsion system (APS) technology has the potential to both, increase the payload capability of earth-to-orbit (ETO) vehicles by reducing APS propellant mass, and simplify ground operations and logistics by reducing the number of fluids on the vehicle and eliminating toxic, corrosive propellants. The impact of integrated cryogenic APS on vehicle payloads is addressed. In this system, launch propulsion system residuals are scavenged from integral launch propulsion tanks for use in the APS. Sufficient propellant is preloaded into the APS to return to earth with margin and noncomplete scavenging assumed. No propellant conditioning is required by the APS, but ambient heat soak is accommodated. High temperature rocket materials enable the use of the unconditioned hydrogen/oxygen in the APS and are estimated to give APS rockets specific impulse of up to about 444 sec. The payload benefits are quantified and compared with an uprated monomethyl hydrazine/nitrogen tetroxide system in a conservative fashion, by assuming a 25.5 percent weight growth for the hydrogen/oxygen system and a 0 percent weight growth for the uprated system. The combination and scavenging and high performance gives payload impacts which are highly mission specific. A payload benefit of 861 kg (1898 lbm) was estimated for a Space Station Freedom rendezvous mission and 2099 kg (4626 lbm) for a sortie mission, with payload impacts varying with the amount of launch propulsion residual propellants. Missions without liquid propellant scavenging were estimated to have payload penalties, however, operational benefits were still possible.

Schneider, Steven J.↗

NASA NTRS2002

The Integrated Air Transportation System Evaluation Tool

Throughout U.S. history, our nation has generally enjoyed exceptional economic growth, driven in part by transportation advancements. Looking forward 25 years, when the national highway and skyway systems are saturated, the nation faces new challenges in creating transportation-driven economic growth and wealth. To meet the national requirement for an improved air traffic management system, NASA developed the goal of tripling throughput over the next 20 years, in all weather conditions while maintaining safety. Analysis of the throughput goal has primarily focused on major airline operations, primarily through the hub and spoke system.However, many suggested concepts to increase throughput may operate outside the hub and spoke system. Examples of such concepts include the Small Aircraft Transportation System, civil tiltrotor, and improved rotorcraft. Proper assessment of the potential contribution of these technologies to the domestic air transportation system requires a modeling capability that includes the country's numerous smaller airports, acting as a fundamental component of the National Air space System, and the demand for such concepts and technologies. Under this task for NASA, the Logistics Management Institute developed higher fidelity demand models that capture the interdependence of short-haul air travel with other transportation modes and explicitly consider the costs of commercial air and other transport modes. To accomplish this work, we generated forecasts of the distribution of general aviation based aircraft and GA itinerant operations at each of nearly 3.000 airport based on changes in economic conditions and demographic trends. We also built modules that estimate the demand for travel by different modes, particularly auto, commercial air, and GA. We examined GA demand from two perspectives: top-down and bottom-up, described in detail.

Wingrove, Earl R., III↗

NASA NTRS2014

Microbiology and Crew Medical Events on the International Space Station

The closed environment of the International Space Station (ISS) creates an ideal environment for microbial growth. Previous studies have identified the ubiquitous nature of microorganisms throughout the space station environment. To ensure safety of the crew, microbial monitoring of air and surface within ISS began in December 2000 and continues to be monitored on a quarterly basis. Water monitoring began in 2009 when the potable water dispenser was installed on ISS. However, it is unknown if high microbial counts are associated with inflight medical events. The microbial counts are determined for the air, surface, and water samples collected during flight operations and samples are returned to the Microbiology laboratory at the Johnson Space Center for identification. Instances of microbial counts above the established microbial limit requirements were noted and compared inflight medical events (any non-injury event such as illness, rashes, etc.) that were reported during the same calendar-quarter. Data were analyzed using repeated measures logistic regression for the forty-one US astronauts flew on ISS between 2000 and 2012. In that time frame, instances of microbial counts being above established limits were found for 10 times for air samples, 22 times for surface samples and twice for water. Seventy-eight inflight medical events were reported among the astronauts. A three times greater risk of a medical event was found when microbial samples were found to be high (OR = 3.01; p =.007). Engineering controls, crew training, and strict microbial limits have been established to mitigate the crew medical events and environmental risks. Due to the timing issues of sampling and the samples return to earth, identification of particular microorganisms causing a particular inflight medical event is difficult. Further analyses are underway.

Oubre, Cherie↗

NASA NTRS2014

Microbiology and Crew Medical Events on the International Space Station

The closed environment of the International Space Station (ISS) creates an ideal environment for microbial growth. Previous studies have identified the ubiquitous nature of microorganisms throughout the space station environment. To ensure safety of the crew, microbial monitoring of air and surface within ISS began in December 2000 and continues to be monitored on a quarterly basis. Water monitoring began in 2009 when the potable water dispenser was installed on ISS. However, it is unknown if high microbial counts are associated with inflight medical events. The microbial counts are determined for the air, surface, and water samples collected during flight operations and samples are returned to the Microbiology laboratory at the Johnson Space Center for identification. Instances of microbial counts above the established microbial limit requirements were noted and compared inflight medical events (any non-injury event such as illness, rashes, etc.) that were reported during the same calendar-quarter. Data were analyzed using repeated measures logistic regression for the forty-one US astronauts flew on ISS between 2000 and 2012. In that time frame, instances of microbial counts being above established limits were found for 10 times for air samples, 22 times for surface samples and twice for water. Seventy-eight inflight medical events were reported among the astronauts. A three times greater risk of a medical event was found when microbial samples were found to be high (OR = 3.01; p =.007). Engineering controls, crew training, and strict microbial limits have been established to mitigate the crew medical events and environmental risks. Due to the timing issues of sampling and the samples return to earth, identification of particular microorganisms causing a particular inflight medical event is difficult. Further analyses are underway.

Oubre, Cherie M.↗

NASA NTRS2021

LMI Automated Air Cargo Operations Market Research and Forecast

Air cargo companies and aircraft manufacturers are making significant investments to enable the movement of cargo via various levels of automated aircraft, such as aircraft with simplified operations requiring a pilot, remotely monitored or piloted aircraft, and fully autonomous aircraft. These investments will enable greater utilization of aircraft while unlocking new air markets traditionally served by ground transportation only. Many cargo companies and aerospace experts envision an operating environment where a single pilot can remotely pilot numerous aircraft for significant increases in aircraft utilization. The future operating environment is also expected to include air cargo companies flying smaller aircraft from airports and distribution centers outside of major U.S. cities directly to city centers, avoiding congested roads and increasing the velocity of cargo shipments, particularly those that are high-value, time-sensitive, and security sensitive (e.g., pharmaceuticals). These are just a few benefits and use cases cargo companies and aerospace experts see with the advancement of automated aircraft. To better understand industry’s direction, NASA asked the LMI team to research the forecasted market, timeline, risks, and opportunities for integrating unmanned air cargo vehicles into the National Airspace System (NAS) for the development and prioritization of the NASA Air Traffic Management Exploration’s research portfolio. To begin the market assessment, we gathered data via numerous interviews with key stakeholders and subject matter experts and literature reviews. We then incorporated the data into a custom-developed systems dynamics model and visualization dashboard. The systems dynamics model classifies the size of the market (e.g., overall fleet size of automated aircraft) for four distinct use cases over the next 20 years. The model projects the year in which various types of automated aircraft will enter the commercial cargo market based on our team’s collective research on when the aircraft will become viable due to manufacturing and certification timelines and the lifespan of current, traditional aircraft in service, to name a few factors. While this report defines our team’s estimated timeline of entry and growth, the model is dynamic—it enables NASA users to change variables based on future-year events. If the necessary technology does not mature in accordance with our assumptions, then NASA can change the entry of service point to a future year to evaluate the changes in market size in the out years. This flexibility will be key to deciding when and how NASA should invest in various areas.

air traffic management↗