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NASA NTRS1998

Mission goals of a 1998/1999 Leonid storm Multi-instrument Aircraft Campaign (MAC)

In November of 1998 (or in 1999 with about equal probability) will be our one chance in a lifetime to anticipate with some certainty the occurrence of a meteor storm. For a period of up to 2 hours, rates are expected to increase above 1 meteor per second for a naked eye observer. At that time, Earth passes through the outer regimes of the dust trail of comet 55P/Tempel-Tuttle. The high meteor flux offers unprecedented precision in characterizing the dust trail in terms of spatial and particle size distributions of dust grains and allows the measurement of composition, morphology and orbits of individual cometary grains relatively soon after ejection from the comet. By using the Earth's atmosphere as a detector for the dust trains, grains are sampled over a wide mass range, from the typical grain size of zodiacal dust (40 - 200 micron) up until the rare boulders that can still be lifted off the comet nucleus.

Jenniskens, P.↗
NASA NTRS2021

The 2022 Meteor Shower Activity Forecast for Low Earth Orbit

The purpose of this document is to provide a forecast of major meteor shower activity in low Earth orbit (LEO). The annual showers are expected to display typical activity, with lower than usual activity from the Perseids. Some modelers report possible outbursts of the tau Herculid and Leonid showers in 2022, but there is no consensus on the strength of these outbursts.

Althea Moorhead↗
NASA NTRS1999

Meteoroids and Meteor Storms: A Threat to Spacecraft

Robust system design is the best protection against meteoroid damage. Impacts by small meteoroids are common on satellite surfaces, but impacts by meteoroids large enough to damage well designed systems are very rare. Estimating the threat from the normal meteoroid environment is difficult. Estimates for the occasional "storm" are even more uncertain. Common sense precautions are in order for the 1999 Leonids, but wide-spread catastrophic damage is highly unlikely. Strong Leonid showers are also expected in 2000 and 2001, but these pose much less threat than 1999.

Anderson, B. Jeffrey↗
NASA NTRS2021

The 2022 Meteor Shower Activity Forecast for the Lunar Surface

The purpose of this document is to provide a forecast of major meteor shower activity on the lunar surface. While the predictions in this document are for the surface, spacecraft orbiting the Moon at low altitudes will encounter meteoroids at similar rates. The annual showers are expected to display typical activity, with lower than usual activity from the Perseids. Some modelers report possible outbursts of the tau Herculid and Leonid showers in 2022, but there is no consensus on the strength of these outbursts.

Althea Moorhead↗
NASA NTRS2010

Luminous Efficiency of Hypervelocity Meteoroid Impacts on the Moon Derived from the 2006 Geminids, 2007 Lyrids, and 2008 Taurids

Since early 2006 the Meteoroid Environment Office at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center has been consistently monitoring the Moon for impact flashes produced by meteoroids striking the lunar surface. During this time, several meteor showers have produced multiple impact flashes on the Moon. The 2006 Geminids, 2007 Lyrids, and 2008 Taurids were observed with average rates of 5.5, 1.2, and 1.5 meteors/hr, respectively, for a total of 12 Geminid, 11 Lyrid, and 12 Taurid lunar impacts. These showers produced a sufficient, albeit small sample of impact flashes with which to perform a luminous efficiency analysis similar to that outlined in Bellot Rubio et al. for the 1999 Leonids. An analysis of the Geminid, Lyrid, and Taurid lunar impacts is carried out herein in order to determine the luminous efficiency in the 400-900 nm wavelength range for each shower. Using the luminous efficiency, the kinetic energies and masses of these lunar impactors can be calculated.

Moser, D. E.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Luminous Efficiency of Hypervelocity Meteoroid Impacts on the Moon Derived from the 2006 Geminids, 2007 Lyrids, and 2008 Taurids

Since early 2006 the Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) at NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center has been consistently monitoring the Moon for impact flashes produced by meteoroids striking the lunar surface. During this time, several meteor showers have produced multiple impact flashes on the Moon. The 2006 Geminids, 2007 Lyrids, and 2008 Taurids were observed with average rates of 5.5, 1.2, and 1.5 meteors/hr, respectively, for a total of 12 Geminid, 12 Lyrid, and 12 Taurid lunar impacts. These showers produced a sufficient, albeit small sample of impact flashes with which to perform a luminous efficiency analysis similar to that outlined in Bellot Rubio et al. (2000) for the 1999 Leonids. An analysis of the Geminid, Lyrid, and Taurid lunar impacts is carried out herein in order to determine the luminous efficiency in the 400-800 nm wavelength range for each shower. Using the luminous efficiency, the kinetic energies and masses of these lunar impactors can be calculated.

Moser, D. E.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Luminous Efficiency of Hypervelocity Meteoroid Impacts on the Moon Derived from the 2006 Geminids, 2007 Lyrids, and 2008 Taurids

Since early 2006, NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center has been routinely monitoring the Moon for impact flashes produced by meteoroids striking the lunar surface. During this time, several meteor showers have produced multiple impact flashes on the Moon. The 2006 Geminids, 2007 Lyrids, and 2008 Taurids were observed with average rates of 5.5, 1.2, and 1.5 meteors/hr, respectively, for a total of 12 Geminid, 12 Lyrid, and 12 Taurid lunar impacts. These showers produced a sufficient, albeit small sample of impact flashes with which to perform a luminous efficiency analysis similar to that outlined in Bellot Rubio et al. (2000a, b) for the 1999 Leonids. An analysis of the Geminid, Lyrid, and Taurid lunar impacts is carried out herein in order to determine the luminous efficiency in the 400-800 nm wavelength range for each shower. Using the luminous efficiency, the kinetic energies and masses of these lunar impactors can be calculated from the observed flash intensity.

Moser, D. E.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Dust Trails of SP/Tuttle and the Unusual Outbursts of the Ursid Shower

Halley-type comets tend to have a series of dust trails that remain spatially correlated for extended periods of time, each dating from a specific return of the comet. Encounters with 1 - 9 revolution old individual dust trails of 55P/Tempel-Tuttle have led to well recognized Leonid shower maxim, the peak time of which was well predicted by recent models. Now. we used the same model to calculate the position of dust trails of comet Shuttle, a Halley-type comet in an (approximately) 13.6 year orbit passing just outside of Earth's orbit. We discovered that the meteoroids tend to be trapped in the 14:12 mean motion resonance with Jupiter, while the comet librates in a slightly shorter period orbit around the 13:15 resonance. It takes six centuries to change the orbit enough to intersect Earth's orbit. During that time, the meteoroids and comet separate in mean anomaly by six years. thus explaining the unusual aphelion occurrences of Ursid outbursts. The resonances also prevent dispersion, so that the dust trail encounters (specifically, from dust trails of AD 1378 - 1405) occur only in one year in each orbit. We predicted enhanced activity on December 22, 2000, at around 7:29 and 8:35 UT (universal time) from dust trails dating to the 1405 and 1392 return, respectively. This event was observed from California using video and photographic techniques. At the same time, five Global-MS-Net stations in Finland, Japan and Belgium counted meteors using forward meteor scatter. The outburst peaked at 8:06:07 UT, December 22, at Zenith Hourly Rate (approx.) 90 per hour. The Ursid rates were above half peak intensity during 4.2 hours. This is only the second Halley type comet for which a meteor outburst can be dated to a specific return of the parent comet, and traces their presence back form 9 to at least 45 revolutions of the comet. New orbital elements of Ursid meteoroids are presented. We find that most orbits do scatter around the anticipated positions, confirming the link with comet Shuttle and the epoch of ejection. The 1405 and.1392 dust trails appear to have contributed similar amounts to the activity profile. Some orbits provide a hint of much older debris being present as well. Some of the dispersion in the radiant position may reflect a true variation in inclinations, with two groupings at low and high values, which is not understood at present.

Jenniskens, Peter↗
NASA NTRS2010

The 2011 Draconid Shower Risk to Earth-Orbiting Satellites

Current meteor shower forecast models project a strong Draconid outburst, possibly a storm, on October 8, 2011, with a duration of approximately 7 hours and peaking between 19 and 21 hours UT. Predicted rates span an order of magnitude, with maximum Zenithal Hourly Rates (ZHRs) ranging from a few tens to several hundred. Calibration of the NASA MSFC Meteoroid Stream Model 1 to radar and optical observations of past apparitions, particularly the 2005 Draconid outburst 2, suggest that the maximum rate will be several hundreds per hour. Given the high spatial density of the Draconid stream, this implies a maximum meteoroid flux of 5-10 Draconids km(exp -2)/hr (to a limiting diameter of 1 mm), some 25-50 times greater than the normal sporadic flux of 0.2 km(exp -2)/ hr for particles of this size. Total outburst fluence, assuming a maximum ZHR of 750, is 15.5 Draconids km(exp -2), resulting in an overall 10x risk increase to spacecraft surfaces vulnerable to hypervelocity impacts by 1 mm particles. It is now established that a significant fraction of spacecraft anomalies produced by shower meteoroids (e.g. OLYMPUS and LandSat 5) are caused by electrostatic discharges produced by meteoroid impacts. In these cases, the charge generated is roughly proportional to v(exp 3.5(4)), giving a Draconid moving at 20 km/s approximately 1/80th the electrical damage potential of a Leonid of the same mass. In other words, a Draconid outburst with a maximum ZHR of 800 presents the same electrical risk as a normal Leonid shower with a ZHR of 15, assuming the mass indices and shower durations are the same. This is supported by the fact that no spacecraft electrical anomalies were reported during the strong Draconid outbursts of 1985 and 1998. However, the lack of past anomalies should not be taken as carte blanche for satellite operators to ignore the 2011 Draconids, as the upcoming outburst will constitute a period of enhanced risk for vehicles in near-Earth space. Each spacecrft is unique, and components have differing damage thresholds; programs are encouraged to conduct analyses to determine whether or not mitigation strategies are necessary for their vehicles.

Cooke, William J.↗