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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

What makes a discovery?

In this contribution to the proceedings of the 182nd Nobel Symposium, I reflect on the concept of “discovery” as it is used by physicists and astronomers. In particular, I comment on how the scientific community distinguishes discoveries from propositions that are supported only by lesser forms of evidence, emphasizing the social nature of this process and remarking on the subjective factors that go into making such judgments. I advocate for an approach that is intentionally Bayesian in nature, in which individuals are encouraged to evaluate and publicly state their priors and to update them systematically. I close by applying these practices to the case example of the Galactic Center Gamma-Ray Excess.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment for electric grid cybersecurity

Electric grid cybersecurity risk has become a significant concern of industries and governments. This paper proposes a dynamic probabilistic risk assessment method for electric grid cybersecurity risk analysis. The proposed method helps reduce the reliance on expert judgment, capture a broad range of components and system dynamics, and model the interactions between various contributing entities (e.g., attacker, operator). In addition, the scenarios with multiple events, such as the occurrence of both cyberattacks and failures of physical components, the occurrence of both cyberattacks and operators’ (in)correct reactions, are considered and analyzed. Further, for each cyberattack scenario, Monte Carlo simulations are used to obtain possible sequences of the system's evolution under study and then derive risk estimates. As an application of the proposed method, the risk assessment method serves as the basis of risk-informed defense resource allocation to improve electric grid cybersecurity. The proposed method is verified using the IEEE 14-bus system by evaluating different security resource allocations for selected cyberattack scenarios.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2017

A data-driven weighting scheme for multivariate phenotypic endpoints recapitulates zebrafish developmental cascades

Zebrafish have become a key alternative model for studying health effects of environmental stressors, partly due to their genetic similarity to humans, fast generation time, and the efficiency of generating high-dimensional systematic data. Studies aiming to characterize adverse health effects in zebrafish typically include several phenotypic measurements (endpoints). While there is a solid biomedical basis for capturing a comprehensive set of endpoints, making summary judgments regarding health effects requires thoughtful integration across endpoints. Here, we introduce a Bayesian method to quantify the informativeness of 17 distinct zebrafish endpoints as a data-driven weighting scheme for a multi-endpoint summary measure, called weighted Aggregate Entropy (wAggE). We implement wAggE using high-throughput screening (HTS) data from zebrafish exposed to five concentrations of all 1060 ToxCast chemicals. Our results show that our empirical weighting scheme provides better performance in terms of the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve for identifying significant morphological effects and improves robustness over traditional curve-fitting approaches. From a biological perspective, our results suggest that developmental cascade effects triggered by chemical exposure can be recapitulated by analyzing the relationships among endpoints. Thus, wAggE offers a powerful approach for analysis of multivariate phenotypes that can reveal underlying etiological processes. - Highlights: • Introduced a data-driven weighting scheme for multiple phenotypic endpoints. • Weighted Aggregate Entropy (wAggE) implies differential importance of endpoints. • Endpoint relationships reveal developmental cascade effects triggered by exposure. • wAggE is generalizable to multi-endpoint data of different shapes and scales.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Packaging waste recycling in Europe: Is the industry paying for it?

Highlights: • We study the recycling schemes of France, Germany, Portugal, Romania and the UK. • The costs and benefits of recycling are compared for France, Portugal and Romania. • The balance of costs and benefits depend on the perspective (strictly financial/economic). • Financial supports to local authorities ought to promote cost-efficiency. - Abstract: This paper describes and examines the schemes established in five EU countries for the recycling of packaging waste. The changes in packaging waste management were mainly implemented since the Directive 94/62/EC on packaging and packaging waste entered into force. The analysis of the five systems allowed the authors to identify very different approaches to cope with the same problem: meet the recovery and recycling targets imposed by EU law. Packaging waste is a responsibility of the industry. However, local governments are generally in charge of waste management, particularly in countries with Green Dot schemes or similar extended producer responsibility systems. This leads to the need of establishing a system of financial transfers between the industry and the local governments (particularly regarding the extra costs involved with selective collection and sorting). Using the same methodological approach, the authors also compare the costs and benefits of recycling from the perspective of local public authorities for France, Portugal and Romania. Since the purpose of the current paper is to take note of who is paying for the incremental costs of recycling and whether the industry (i.e. the consumer) is paying for the net financial costs of packaging waste management, environmental impacts are not included in the analysis. The work carried out in this paper highlights some aspects that are prone to be improved and raises several questions that will require further research. In the three countries analyzed more closely in this paper the industry is not paying the net financial cost of packaging waste management. In fact, if the savings attained by diverting packaging waste from other treatment (e.g. landfilling) and the public subsidies to the investment on the “recycling system” are not considered, it seems that the industry should increase the financial support to local authorities (by 125% in France, 50% in Portugal and 170% in Romania). However, in France and Portugal the industry is paying local authorities more than just the incremental costs of recycling (full costs of selective collection and sorting minus the avoided costs). To provide a more definitive judgment on the fairness of the systems it will be necessary to assess the cost efficiency of waste management operators (and judge whether operators are claiming costs or eliciting “prices”)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2013

Oral Reference Dose for ethylene glycol based on oxalate crystal-induced renal tubule degeneration as the critical effect

Several risk assessments have been conducted for ethylene glycol (EG). These assessments identified the kidney as the primary target organ for chronic effects. None of these assessments have incorporated the robust database of species-specific toxicokinetic and toxicodynamic studies with EG and its metabolites in defining uncertainty factors used in reference value derivation. Pertinent in vitro and in vivo studies related to one of these metabolites, calcium oxalate, and its role in crystal-induced nephropathy are summarized, and the weight of evidence to establish the mode of action for renal toxicity is reviewed. Previous risk assessments were based on chronic rat studies using a strain of rat that was later determined to be less sensitive to the toxic effects of EG. A recently published 12-month rat study using the more sensitive strain (Wistar) was selected to determine the point of departure for a new risk assessment. This approach incorporated toxicokinetic and toxicodynamic data and used Benchmark Dose methods to calculate a Human Equivalent Dose. Uncertainty factors were chosen, depending on the quality of the studies available, the extent of the database, and scientific judgment. The Reference Dose for long-term repeat oral exposure to EG was determined to be 15 mg/kg bw/d.

Snellings, William M.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Two-Stage Fracturing Wastewater Management in Shale Gas Development

Here, management of shale gas wastewater treatment, disposal, and reuse has become a significant environmental challenge, driven by an ongoing boom in development of U.S. shale gas reservoirs. Systems-analysis based decision support is helpful for effective management of wastewater, and provision of cost-effective decision alternatives from a whole-system perspective. Uncertainties are inherent in many modeling parameters, affecting the generated decisions. In order to effectively deal with the recourse issue in decision making, in this work a two-stage stochastic fracturing wastewater management model, named TSWM, is developed to provide decision support for wastewater management planning in shale plays. Using the TSWM model, probabilistic and nonprobabilistic uncertainties are effectively handled. The TSWM model provides flexibility in generating shale gas wastewater management strategies, in which the first-stage decision predefined by decision makers before uncertainties are unfolded is corrected in the second stage to achieve the whole-system’s optimality. Application of the TSWM model to a comprehensive synthetic example demonstrates its practical applicability and feasibility. Optimal results are generated for allowable wastewater quantities, excess wastewater, and capacity expansions of hazardous wastewater treatment plants to achieve the minimized total system cost. The obtained interval solutions encompass both optimistic and conservative decisions. Trade-offs between economic and environmental objectives are made depending on decision makers’ knowledge and judgment, as well as site-specific information. In conclusion, the proposed model is helpful in forming informed decisions for wastewater management associated with shale gas development.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Evaluation of thermodynamic equations of state across chemistry and structure in the materials project

Thermodynamic equations of state (EOS) for crystalline solids describe material behaviors under changes in pressure, volume, entropy and temperature, making them fundamental to scientific research in a wide range of fields including geophysics, energy storage and development of novel materials. Despite over a century of theoretical development and experimental testing of energy–volume (E–V) EOS for solids, there is still a lack of consensus with regard to which equation is indeed optimal, as well as to what metric is most appropriate for making this judgment. In this study, several metrics were used to evaluate quality of fit for 8 different EOS across 87 elements and over 100 compounds which appear in the literature. Our findings do not indicate a clear “best” EOS, but we identify three which consistently perform well relative to the rest of the set. Furthermore, we find that for the aggregate data set, the RMSrD is not strongly correlated with the nature of the compound, e.g., whether it is a metal, insulator, or semiconductor, nor the bulk modulus for any of the EOS, indicating that a single equation can be used across a broad range of classes of materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

WPEC SG50: Developing an Automatically Readable, Comprehensive and Curated Experimental Nuclear Reaction Database

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) Working Party on International Nuclear Data Evaluation Co-operation (WPEC) subgroup (SG) 50 was formed in 2020 to develop an automatically readable, comprehensive and curated experimental nuclear reaction database. This database is called MEDUSAL (Machine-readable Experimental Data User Application & Library), and will draw from EXFOR. The EXFOR database preserves experimental nuclear reaction data true to its original documentation and information from the authors of the data. MEDUSAL will deviate from EXFOR by storing additional information from users of the data for their fields of work (evaluation, model development, validation, etc.). This includes expert judgment on the data sets, identification of data points as outliers, renormalization of the data to the newest monitor reactions, and estimations of missing uncertainty sources. The format for MEDUSAL is being developed to enable easy automatic parsing of large amounts of data. Here, we will summarize the use cases, high-level requirements and first steps towards developing the database MEDUSAL and the API to access it.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2013

Theoretical modeling of the uranium 4f XPS for U(VI) and U(IV) oxides

A rigorous study is presented of the physical processes related to X-Ray photoelectron spectroscopy, XPS, in the 4f level of U oxides, which, as well as being of physical interest in themselves, are representative of XPS in heavy metal oxides. In particular, we present compelling evidence for a new view of the screening of core-holes that extends prior understandings. Our analysis of the screening focuses on the covalent mixing of high lying U and O orbitals as opposed to the, more common, use of orbitals that are nominally pure U or pure O. It is shown that this covalent mixing is quite different for the initial and final, core-hole, configurations and that this difference is directly related to the XPS satellite intensity. Furthermore, we show that the high-lying U d orbitals as well as the U(5f) orbital may both contribute to the core-hole screening, in contrast with previous work that has only considered screening through the U(5f) shell. The role of modifying the U-O interaction by changing the U-O distance has been investigated and an unexpected correlation between U-O distance and XPS satellite intensity has been discovered. The role of flourite and octahedral crystal structures for U(IV) oxides has been examined and relationships established between XPS features and the covalent interactions in the different structures. The physical views of XPS satellites as arising from shake processes or as arising from ligand to metal charge transfers are contrasted; our analysis provides strong support that shake processes give a more fundamental physical understanding than charge transfer. Our theoretical studies are based on rigorous, strictly ab initio determinations of the electronic structure of embedded cluster models of U oxides with formal U(VI) and U(IV) oxidation states. Our results provide a foundation that makes it possible to establish quantitative relationships between features of the XPS spectra and materials properties.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2013

Performance optimization of apodized FBG-based temperature sensors in single and quasi-distributed DWDM systems with new and different apodization profiles

In this work, different FBG temperature sensors are designed and evaluated with various apodization profiles. Evaluation is done under a wide range of controlling design parameters like sensor length and refractive index modulation amplitude, targeting a remarkable temperature sensing performance. New judgment techniques are introduced such as apodization window roll-off rate, asymptotic sidelobe (SL) decay level, number of SLs, and average SL level (SLav). Evaluation techniques like reflectivity, Full width at Half Maximum (FWHM), and Sidelobe Suppression Ratio (SLSR) are also used. A “New” apodization function is proposed, which achieves better performance like asymptotic decay of 18.4 dB/nm, high SLSR of 60 dB, high channel isolation of 57.9 dB, and narrow FWHM less than 0.15 nm. For a single accurate temperature sensor measurement in extensive noisy environment, optimum results are obtained by the Nuttall apodization profile and the new apodization function, which have remarkable SLSR. For a quasi-distributed FBG temperature sensor the Barthann and the new apodization profiles obtain optimum results. Barthann achieves a high asymptotic decay of 40 dB/nm, a narrow FWHM (less than 25 GHZ), a very low SLav of −45.3 dB, high isolation of 44.6 dB, and a high SLSR of 35 dB. The new apodization function achieves narrow FWHM of 0.177 nm, very low SL of −60.1, very low SLav of −63.6 dB, and very high SLSR of −57.7 dB. A study is performed on including an unapodized sensor among apodized sensors in a quasi-distributed sensing system. Finally, an isolation examination is performed on all the discussed apodizations and a linear relation between temperature and the Bragg wavelength shift is observed experimentally and matched with the simulated results.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2014

RDS - A systematic approach towards system thermal hydraulics input code development for a comprehensive deterministic safety analysis

Deterministic Safety Analysis (DSA) is one of the mandatory requirements conducted for Nuclear Power Plant licensing process, with the aim of ensuring safety compliance with relevant regulatory acceptance criteria. DSA is a technique whereby a set of conservative deterministic rules and requirements are applied for the design and operation of facilities or activities. Computer codes are normally used to assist in performing all required analysis under DSA. To ensure a comprehensive analysis, the conduct of DSA should follow a systematic approach. One of the methodologies proposed is the Standardized and Consolidated Reference Experimental (and Calculated) Database (SCRED) developed by University of Pisa. Based on this methodology, the use of Reference Data Set (RDS) as a pre-requisite reference document for developing input nodalization was proposed. This paper shall describe the application of RDS with the purpose of assessing its effectiveness. Two RDS documents were developed for an Integral Test Facility of LOBI-MOD2 and associated Test A1-83. Data and information from various reports and drawings were referred in preparing the RDS. The results showed that by developing RDS, it has made possible to consolidate all relevant information in one single document. This is beneficial as it enables preservation of information, promotes quality assurance, allows traceability, facilitates continuous improvement, promotes solving of contradictions and finally assisting in developing thermal hydraulic input regardless of whichever code selected. However, some disadvantages were also recognized such as the need for experience in making engineering judgments, language barrier in accessing foreign information and limitation of resources. Some possible improvements are suggested to overcome these challenges.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2014

Understanding generalized inversions of nuclear magnetic resonance transverse relaxation time in porous media

The nuclear magnetic resonance transverse relaxation time T{sub 2}, measured using the Carr-Purcell-Meiboom-Gill (CPMG) experiment, is a powerful method for obtaining unique information on liquids confined in porous media. Furthermore, T{sub 2} provides structural information on the porous material itself and has many applications in petrophysics, biophysics, and chemical engineering. Robust interpretation of T{sub 2} distributions demands appropriate processing of the measured data since T{sub 2} is influenced by diffusion through magnetic field inhomogeneities occurring at the pore scale, caused by the liquid/solid susceptibility contrast. Previously, we introduced a generic model for the diffusion exponent of the form −ant{sub e}{sup k} (where n is the number and t{sub e} the temporal separation of spin echoes, and a is a composite diffusion parameter) in order to distinguish the influence of relaxation and diffusion in CPMG data. Here, we improve the analysis by introducing an automatic search for the optimum power k that best describes the diffusion behavior. This automated method is more efficient than the manual trial-and-error grid search adopted previously, and avoids variability through subjective judgments of experimentalists. Although our method does not avoid the inherent assumption that the diffusion exponent depends on a single k value, we show through simulation and experiment that it is robust in measurements of heterogeneous systems that violate this assumption. In this way, we obtain quantitative T{sub 2} distributions from complicated porous structures and demonstrate the analysis with examples of ceramics used for filtration and catalysis, and limestone of relevance to the construction and petroleum industries.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2015

Comment on “Diffusion of n-type dopants in germanium” [Appl. Phys. Rev. 1, 011301 (2014)]

The authors of the above paper call into question recent evidence on the properties of self-interstitials, I, in Ge [Cowern et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 110, 155501 (2013)]. We show that this judgment stems from invalid model assumptions during analysis of data on B marker-layer diffusion during proton irradiation, and that a corrected analysis fully supports the reported evidence. As previously stated, I-mediated self-diffusion in Ge exhibits two distinct regimes of temperature, T: high-T, dominated by amorphous-like mono-interstitial clusters—i-morphs—with self-diffusion entropy ≈30 k, and low-T, where transport is dominated by simple self-interstitials. In a transitional range centered on 475 °C both mechanisms contribute. The experimental I migration energy of 1.84 ± 0.26 eV reported by the Münster group based on measurements of self-diffusion during irradiation at 550 °C < T < 680 °C further establishes our proposed i-morph mechanism.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2014

Evaluating musical instruments

Scientific measurements of sound generation and radiation by musical instruments are surprisingly hard to correlate with the subtle and complex judgments of instrumental quality made by expert musicians.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Veridical data science

Building and expanding on principles of statistics, machine learning, and scientific inquiry, we propose the predictability, computability, and stability (PCS) framework for veridical data science. Our framework, composed of both a workflow and documentation, aims to provide responsible, reliable, reproducible, and transparent results across the data science life cycle. The PCS workflow uses predictability as a reality check and considers the importance of computation in data collection/storage and algorithm design. It augments predictability and computability with an overarching stability principle. Stability expands on statistical uncertainty considerations to assess how human judgment calls impact data results through data and model/algorithm perturbations. As part of the PCS workflow, we develop PCS inference procedures, namely PCS perturbation intervals and PCS hypothesis testing, to investigate the stability of data results relative to problem formulation, data cleaning, modeling decisions, and interpretations. We illustrate PCS inference through neuroscience and genomics projects of our own and others. Moreover, we demonstrate its favorable performance over existing methods in terms of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves in high-dimensional, sparse linear model simulations, including a wide range of misspecified models. Finally, we propose PCS documentation based on R Markdown or Jupyter Notebook, with publicly available, reproducible codes and narratives to back up human choices made throughout an analysis. The PCS workflow and documentation are demonstrated in a genomics case study available on Zenodo.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Technoeconomic Design Optimization for Fast Reactors. Part I: Workflow Development and Case Study for Small LFR District Energy Application

The nuclear industry is developing small reactor designs that can target a variety of deployment locations and energy products. Smaller nuclear designs have traditionally struggled to handle the steep trade-offs between size and cost that have historically incentivized large reactors. This motivates computational optimization of small reactors to minimize costs and quantify the trade-off between size and cost. In this paper, the cost/size trade-off for a small fast reactor is derived using a multi-objective genetic algorithm optimization, with steady-state, transient, and cost analysis of the fast reactor being performed. Specifically, the method is demonstrated on a small 10- to 120-MW(thermal) U-Pu-Zr–fueled lead-cooled fast reactor with a 10-year core life for district energy applications, which can have a thermal load compatible with this range. The results reinforced that fast reactor cores at the lower end of this power range suffer cost penalties due to critical mass considerations. It was found that high power density cores with strong reactivity swings and many control rods were favored over designing to minimize reactivity swing. Furthermore, this contrasts with some traditional configurations designed using engineering judgment and demonstrates that optimizers can find nontraditional but realistic solutions, along with demonstrating the value of incorporating cost functions into whole-reactor design optimization.

Fast reactor↗
DOE OSTI2018

Uncertainty Quantification Study of CTF for the OECD/NEA LWR Uncertainty Analysis in Modeling Benchmark

This work describes the results of a quantitative uncertainty analysis of the thermal-hydraulic subchannel code for nuclear engineering applications, Coolant Boiling in Rod Arrays-Three Field (COBRA-TF). CTF is used, which is a version of COBRA-TF developed in cooperation between the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors and North Carolina State University. Four steady-state cases from Phase II Exercise 3 of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development/Nuclear Energy Agency Light Water Reactor Uncertainty Analysis in Modeling (UAM) Benchmark are analyzed using the statistical analysis tool, Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications (Dakota). The input parameters include boundary condition, geometry, and modeling uncertainties, which are selected using a sensitivity study and then defined based on expert judgment. Here, a forward uncertainty quantification method with Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) is used, where the sample size is based on available computational resources.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Foundations of plasma standards

Abstract The field of low-temperature plasmas (LTPs) excels by virtue of its broad intellectual diversity, interdisciplinarity and range of applications. This great diversity also challenges researchers in communicating the outcomes of their investigations, as common practices and expectations for reporting vary widely in the many disciplines that either fall under the LTP umbrella or interact closely with LTP topics. These challenges encompass comparing measurements made in different laboratories, exchanging and sharing computer models, enabling reproducibility in experiments and computations using traceable and transparent methods and data, establishing metrics for reliability, and in translating fundamental findings to practice. In this paper, we address these challenges from the perspective of LTP standards for measurements, diagnostics, computations, reporting and plasma sources. This discussion on standards, or recommended best practices, and in some cases suggestions for standards or best practices, has the goal of improving communication, reproducibility and transparency within the LTP field and fields allied with LTPs. This discussion also acknowledges that standards and best practices, either recommended or at some point enforced, are ultimately a matter of judgment. These standards and recommended practices should not limit innovation nor prevent research breakthroughs from having real-time impact. Ultimately, the goal of our research community is to advance the entire LTP field and the many applications it touches through a shared set of expectations.

data and reaction mechanisms↗