Physics-informed machine learning with conditional Karhunen-Loève expansions
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Tartakovsky, A. M. (ORCID:000000032375318X)↗
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Results for “Inverse model calibration”
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An Efficient Bayesian Approach to Learning Droplet Collision Kernels: Proof of Concept Using “Cloudy,” a New n -Moment Bulk Microphysics Scheme
The small-scale microphysical processes governing the formation of precipitation particles cannot be resolved explicitly by cloud resolving and climate models. Instead, they are represented by microphysics schemes that are based on a combination of theoretical knowledge, statistical assumptions, and fitting to data (“tuning”). Historically, tuning was done in an ad hoc fashion, leading to parameter choices that are not explainable or repeatable. Recent work has treated it as an inverse problem that can be solved by Bayesian inference. The posterior distribution of the parameters given the data—the solution of Bayesian inference—is found through computationally expensive sampling methods, which require over $\mathcal{O}$(10 5 ) evaluations of the forward model; this is prohibitive for many models. We present a proof of concept of Bayesian learning applied to a new bulk microphysics scheme named “Cloudy,” using the recently developed Calibrate-Emulate-Sample (CES) algorithm. Cloudy models collision-coalescence and collisional breakup of cloud droplets with an adjustable number of prognostic moments and with easily modifiable assumptions for the cloud droplet mass distribution and the collision kernel. The CES algorithm uses machine learning tools to accelerate Bayesian inference by reducing the number of forward evaluations needed to $\mathcal{O}$(10 2 ). It also exhibits a smoothing effect when forward evaluations are polluted by noise. In a suite of perfect-model experiments, we show that CES enables computationally efficient Bayesian inference of parameters in Cloudy from noisy observations of moments of the droplet mass distribution. In an additional imperfect-model experiment, a collision kernel parameter is successfully learned from output generated by a Lagrangian particle-based microphysics model.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
A cloud computing approach to massively-parallel distributed stochastic optimization with application to geomechanical reservoir characterization
Many search strategies used to optimize parameters during hydrologic model calibration are inherently limited in that simulations must be performed sequentially in order for the algorithm to converge. As a result, the overall time required to reach a solution increases linearly with the number of steps necessary. In contrast, sampling strategies that attempt to approximate the posterior distribution of the parameters do not require the model simulations to be run in sequence and therefore invite the use of a massively parallel approach across heterogeneous computing environments. We apply a cloud computing methodology to this problem where a head node running on Amazon Web Services continuously produces candidate models that are distributed to arbitrary compute environments to run the simulation, in our case Clemson’s Palmetto cluster computer. Thus the time required to obtain a sufficient number of samples to produce an adequate approximation of the posterior distribution of the parameters is limited by the number of available compute sites. Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior space would be duplicative and inefficient, thus we combine Latin hypercube methods with genetic algorithms to ensure that no large regions of the parameter space are left unexplored, and that high probability regions are investigated thoroughly. We independently assess the fit to different types of data sets without the need to construct a single objective function. Sets of Pareto optimal models are particularly valuable when the quality and information content of data is poorly known or conceptual model errors exist in our simulation. We illustrate our approach for a problem where in situ strain data are used to calibrate the parameters of an oil reservoir in the Avant oil field in Oklahoma. We use well injection and shut-in to stress a deep (500m) confined formation, and observe the geomechanical response using borehole strainmeters installed in the shallow subsurface (30m). These data were then used to calibrate the poroelastic properties of the reservoir and caprock along with the geometry of an elliptic channel associated with the formation. Using our approach we are able to identify issues with model error as well as substantial tradeoffs that occur within the parameters.
inversion, stochastic, geomechanics, poroelastic, ↗
Current and Future Global Lake Methane Emissions: A Process‐Based Modeling Analysis
Abstract Freshwater ecosystem contributions to the global methane budget remains the most uncertain among natural sources. With warming and accompanying carbon release from thawed permafrost and thermokarst lake expansion, the increase of methane emissions could be large. However, the impact and relative importance of various factors related to warming remain uncertain. Based on diverse lake characteristics incorporated in modeling and observational data, we calibrate and verify a lake biogeochemistry model. The model is then applied to estimate global lake methane emissions and examine the impacts of temperature increase for the first and the last decades of the 21st century under different climate scenarios. We find that current emissions are 24.0 ± 8.4 Tg CH 4 yr −1 from lakes larger than 0.1 km 2 , accounting for 11% of the global total natural source as estimated based on atmospheric inversion. Future projections under the RCP8.5 scenario suggest a 58%–86% growth in emissions from lakes. Our model sensitivity analysis indicates that additional carbon substrates from thawing permafrost may enhance methane production under warming in the Arctic. Warming enhanced methane oxidation in lake water can be an effective sink to reduce the net release from global lakes.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Nuclear Data Adjustment for Nonlinear Applications in the OECD/NEA WPNCS SG14 Benchmark—A Bayesian Inverse UQ-Based Approach for Data Assimilation
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Working Party on Nuclear Criticality Safety has proposed a benchmark exercise to assess the performance of current nuclear data adjustment techniques applied to nonlinear applications and experiments with low correlation to applications. This work introduces Bayesian inverse uncertainty quantification (IUQ) employing scientific machine learning surrogate models as a method for nuclear data adjustments in this benchmark, and compares IUQ to the more traditional methods of generalized linear least squares (GLLS) and Monte Carlo Bayes (MOCABA). Posterior predictions from IUQ showed agreement with GLLS and MOCABA for linear applications. Here, when comparing GLLS, MOCABA, and IUQ posterior predictions to computed model responses using adjusted parameters, we observe that the GLLS predictions failed to replicate the computed response distributions for nonlinear applications, while MOCABA showed near agreement, and IUQ used the computed model responses directly. We also discuss observations on why experiments with low correlation to applications can be informative to nuclear data adjustments and identify some properties useful in selecting experiments for inclusion in nuclear data adjustment. Performance in this benchmark indicates potential for Bayesian IUQ in nuclear data adjustments.
Bayesian calibration↗
Bayesian State-Space Modeling Framework for Understanding and Predicting Golden Eagle Movements Using Telemetry Data
Predicting raptor movements through a wind power plant under given atmospheric and topographical conditions is a crucial first step in the overall goal of quantifying the risk of turbine-related collisions and mortalities. Extracting behavioral traits of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) from telemetry data requires the fusion of noisy and sparse movement data (location, heading, velocity) with a stochastic mathematical representation of the eagles' decision-making processes. In this study, we framed this problem in a Bayesian state-space framework where both observations and decision-making are assumed to be stochastic processes connected through hidden states (mode of flight, intent), and the unknown model parameters are assumed to be random variables that are calibrated using the available telemetry data. This framework allowed for rigorous consideration of underlying uncertainties while allowing for both data and prior biological knowledge to contribute to a probabilistic and predictive agent-based movement model. We implemented and applied the Bayesian framework to understand movement behavior of 23 GPS-tagged golden eagles travelling in the western US for years 2019 and 2020. Our preliminary findings show that the Bayesian state-space framework provides a robust inverse modeling apparatus to decode eagle behavioral characteristics from telemetry data. This study was primarily aimed at verifying and validating the framework with selected golden eagle tracks (both long- and short-ranged), with future research aimed at extending the framework to include multi-mode flight, consideration of atmospheric data and uplift mechanisms, eagle-to-eagle interaction, and eagle-to-turbine interaction.
Bayesian modeling↗
The Dark Energy Survey Supernova Program: an updated measurement of the Hubble constant using the inverse distance ladder
We measure the current expansion rate of the Universe, Hubble’s constant $H_0$, by calibrating the absolute magnitudes of supernovae to distances measured by baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO). This ‘inverse distance ladder’ technique provides an alternative to calibrating supernovae using nearby absolute distance measurements, replacing the calibration with a high-redshift anchor. We use the recent release of 1829 supernovae from the Dark Energy Survey spanning $0.01\lt z\lt 1.13$ anchored to the recent baryon acoustic oscillation measurements from Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) spanning $0.30 \lt z_{\mathrm{eff}}\lt 2.33$. To trace cosmology to $z=0$, we use the third-, fourth-, and fifth-order cosmographic models, which, by design, are agnostic about the energy content and expansion history of the universe. With the inclusion of the higher redshift DESI-BAO data, the third-order model is a poor fit to both data sets, with the fourth-order model being preferred by the Akaike Information Criterion. Using the fourth-order cosmographic model, we find $H_0=67.19^{+0.66}_{-0.64}\mathrm{~km} \mathrm{~s}^{-1} \mathrm{~Mpc}^{-1}$, in agreement with the value found by Planck without the need to assume Flat-$\Lambda$CDM. However, the best-fitting expansion history differs from that of Planck, providing continued motivation to investigate these tensions.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
The influence of tillage and fertilizer on the flux and source of nitrous oxide with reference to atmospheric variation using laser spectroscopy
Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) is the third most important long-lived greenhouse gas and agriculture is the largest source of N 2 O emissions. Curbing N 2 O emissions requires understanding influences on the flux and sources of N 2 O. We measured flux and evaluated microbial sources of N 2 O using site preference ( S P ; the intramolecular distribution of 15 N in N 2 O) in flux chambers from a grassland tilling and agricultural fertilization experiments and atmosphere. We identified values greater than that of the average atmosphere to reflect nitrification and/or fungal denitrification and those lower than atmosphere as increased denitrification. Our spectroscopic approach was based on an extensive calibration with 18 standards that yielded S P accuracy and reproducibility of 0.7 ‰ and 1.0 ‰, respectively, without preconcentration. Chamber samples from the tilling experiment taken ~ monthly over a year showed a wide range in N 2 O flux (0–1.9 g N 2 O-N ha -1 d -1 ) and S P (- 1.8 to 25.1 ‰). Flux and S P were not influenced by tilling but responded to sampling date. Large fluxes occurred in October and May in no-till when soils were warm and moist and during a spring thaw, an event likely representing release of N 2 O accumulated under snow cover. These high fluxes could not be ascribed to a single microbial process as S P differed among chambers. However, the year-long S P and flux data for no-till showed a slight direct relationship suggesting that nitrification increased with flux. The comparative data in till showed an inverse relationship indicating that high flux events are driven by denitrification. Corn ( Zea mays ) showed high fluxes and S P values indicative of nitrification ~ 4 wk after fertilization with subsequent declines in S P indicating denitrification. Although there was no effect of fertilizer treatment on flux or S P in switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum) , high fluxes occurred ~1 month after fertilization. In both treatments, S P was indicative of denitrification in many instances, but evidence of nitrification/fungal denitrification also prevailed. At 2 m atmospheric N 2 O S P had a range of 31.1 ‰ and 14.6 ‰ in the grassland tilling and agricultural fertilization experiments, respectively. These data suggest the influence of soil microbial processes on atmospheric N 2 O and argue against the use of the global average atmospheric S P in isotopic modeling approaches.
Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
Quantification of LEU Holdup using gamma ray imaging and inverse transport solver
Holdup is the residual amount of special nuclear material (SNM) remaining in a processing facility after the bulk materials have been cleaned out. In commercial uranium processing facilities, quantification of holdup is a major challenge because of the highly variable shapes and sizes of the deposits. Any method that attempts to generalize and calibrate deposit shapes in order to quantify holdup will be prone to high uncertainties. Uncertainties on the order of ±50% are typical in holdup results. In international safeguards applications, a ±50% uncertainty can result in a large amount of material unaccounted for (MUF) thereby increasing the difficulty of detecting material diversion and facility misuse. An imaging-based methodology has been developed with the objective of significantly reducing this uncertainty by using the true deposit shape, instead of relying on oversimplified geometric assumptions. The project is a collaboration between ORNL, Y-12, and the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN. Uranium sources of known masses were measured using the Germanium Gamma-ray Imager (GeGI), a high-resolution imaging spectrometer, creating a pixelated map for each spectral bin. Two different gamma imaging methods are employed in this work: coded aperture imaging and Compton imaging. A validated MonteCarlo model of the detector has been developed using the GEANT4 code for determining the intrinsic response of the detector, its enclosure, and the coded aperture mask. An inverse transport solver based on the Markov Chain Monte-Carlo approach known as Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) is employed to use the measurement data from the image pixels (coded aperture or Compton) to solve for the mass of 235 U in the deposit. A reliable method based on the DREAM solver has been developed to flag the infinite thickness condition of a uranium deposit. The project team is working towards improving the image reconstruction for Compton imaging so that a better localization of the source can be achieved. Besides treating the coded aperture and Compton imaging methods independently, the project is also evaluating a combined method that uses the Compton scatter data from a coded aperture measurement. GEANT4 simulations are being performed to evaluate the combined approach. The impact on the DREAM optimization as the source thickness progressively approaches infinite thickness is being evaluated. A number of uranium sources available at ORNL have been measured, and the DREAM results have been tested and validated for the coded aperture imaging. A similar effort will be carried out to validate the Compton based method once the development of algorithms for better localization are complete. The imaging based quantification is very amenable to unattended monitoring of holdup accumulation at key measurement points. A proof of concept measurement has been completed to demonstrate this capability The current work used the high energy resolution imager GeGI. However, the approach and methodologies are applicable to other imagers such as the cadmium zin telluride (CZT) based imager manufactured by H3D, Inc.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
A Bayesian Approach to Regional Decadal Predictability: Sparse Parameter Estimation in High-Dimensional Linear Inverse Models of High-Latitude Sea Surface Temperature Variability
Stochastic reduced models are an important tool in climate systems whose many spatial and temporal scales cannot be fully discretized or underlying physics may not be fully accounted for. One form of reduced model, the linear inverse model (LIM), has been widely used for regional climate predictability studies—typically focusing more on tropical or midlatitude studies. However, most LIM fitting techniques rely on point estimation techniques deriving from fluctuation–dissipation theory. In this methodological study we explore the use of Bayesian inference techniques for LIM parameter estimation of sea surface temperature (SST), to quantify the skillful decadal predictability of Bayesian LIM models at high latitudes. We show that Bayesian methods, when compared to traditional point estimation methods for LIM-type models, provide better calibrated probabilistic skill, while simultaneously providing better point estimates due to the regularization effect of the prior distribution in high-dimensional problems. We compare the effect of several priors, as well as maximum likelihood estimates, on 1) estimating parameter values on a perfect model experiment and 2) producing calibrated 1-yr SST anomaly forecast distributions using a preindustrial control run of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Finally, we employ a host of probabilistic skill metrics to determine the extent to which an LIM can forecast SST anomalies at high latitudes. We find that the choice of prior distribution has an appreciable impact on estimation outcomes, and priors that emphasize physically relevant properties enhance the model’s ability to capture variability of SST anomalies.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Improving the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation via a Surrogate‐Accelerated Multi‐Objective Optimization
Accurate simulation of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is challenging due to uncertainties in representing convectively generated gravity waves. We develop an end-to-end uncertainty quantification workflow that calibrates these gravity wave processes in E3SM for a realistic QBO. Central to our approach is a domain knowledge-informed, compressed representation of high-dimensional spatio-temporal wind fields. By employing a parsimonious statistical model that learns the fundamental frequency from complex observations, we extract interpretable and physically meaningful quantities capturing key attributes. Building on this, we train a probabilistic surrogate model that approximates the fundamental characteristics of the QBO as functions of critical physics parameters governing gravity wave generation. Leveraging the Karhunen–Loève decomposition, our surrogate efficiently represents these characteristics as a set of orthogonal features, capturing cross-correlations among multiple physics quantities evaluated at different pressure levels and enabling rapid surrogate-based inference at a fraction of the computational cost of full-scale simulations. Finally, we analyze the inverse problem using a multi-objective approach. Our study reveals a tension between amplitude and period that constrains the QBO representation, precluding a single optimal solution. To navigate this, we quantify the bi-criteria trade-off and generate a set of Pareto optimal parameter values that balance the conflicting objectives. This integrated workflow improves the fidelity of QBO simulations and offers a versatile template for uncertainty quantification in complex geophysical models.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Gamma ray Imaging Based Methods to Improve the Accuracy of Uranium Holdup Quantification
Deposits in commercial uranium processing facilities of interest to nuclear safeguards are predominantly low enriched uranium (LEU). The shapes and sizes of holdup deposits can vary significantly, thus making it difficult to model the deposits accurately for calibration purposes. This presents a challenge to currently employed methods such as the Generalized Geometry Holdup (GGH) that rely on quantifying 235U mass by simplifying deposit shapes as a point, a line, or an area. In this work, gamma ray imaging using high energy resolution Germanium Gamma Imagers (GeGI™) is employed to determine the distribution of uranium inside the source containment. Two types of imaging methods are employed; coded-aperture imaging and Compton imaging. Gamma-ray emissions seen in different regions of the image are quantified using an inverse gamma-ray transport solver being developed at ORNL. Using measured data, the inverse method will be used to solve for unknown source parameters such as source matrix thickness, density, and attenuation due to container wall and shielding. The intrinsic efficiency of the detector is determined based on a library of built-in response functions and key dimensions of the detector (e.g., thickness and radius of the detector crystal). Measurements are performed in both imaging modalities using uranium sources of well-known masses and enrichments configured inside mocked-up holdup fixtures. Results from the two imaging modalities are intercompared. The paper presents preliminary results of the imaging measurements and the progress made in the computational methods to quantify uranium mass.
98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
A hierarchical Bayesian model for background variation in radiation source localization
In this paper, we apply a new model to account for varying background radiation in radiological source localization. We present a hierarchical Bayesian model that simultaneously infers background and source location parameters without requiring separate estimation of the background radiation at each detector location. We employ a simplified photon transport model to reduce the computational expense of Bayesian model calibration. Furthermore, we demonstrate the model accuracy by localizing a cesium-137 source in a simulated city block, and we analyze experimental field measurements with varying background. In both cases, the model provides sufficient fidelity that we can locate the source while simultaneously estimating background radiation.
46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
Reduced scale stripline platform to extend accessible pressures on the Z machine: Shockless compression of platinum to 650 GPa
Reaching astrophysically relevant high energy density (HED) material states in the laboratory is an ongoing effort at multiple experimental facilities. We have developed a new dynamic compression platform for the Z Pulsed Power Facility that allows for sample sizes 100s of [Formula: see text]m in thickness that accommodate multiple grains in order to fully capture bulk properties, such as material strength. A pair of experiments compressed platinum (Pt) to HED conditions and conventional inverse Lagrangian analysis as well as a recent Bayesian calibration technique were used to determine the principal isentrope to 650 GPa with density uncertainties of <2%. These low uncertainties are calculated for single sample experiments, presenting the possibility of even smaller experimental uncertainties with multiple samples the platform allows. Our new platform extends the accessible Pt ramp pressures achievable on the Z machine to over 80% of the pressure recently achieved using the National Ignition Facility planar Hohlraum platform. This new capability, the next generation evolution of the stripline platform, was made possible by advancements in both our understanding of the Z pulsed power driver and our overall magnetohydrodynamic modeling capabilities.
Porwitzky, Andrew↗
Bayesian uncertainty quantification of tristructural isotropic particle fuel silver release: Decomposing model inadequacy plus experimental noise and parametric uncertainties
Tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particle fuel is one of the most promising fuel concepts enabling high temperature and high burnup reactor operation. One dominant source of radioactivity released from the TRISO particles is silver (Ag), which is subject to a high release fraction and long decay life compared to other fission products. Previous modeling efforts using the fuel performance code BISON indicated nonnegligible uncertainties in modeling the diffusion process of fission products in TRISO compared to the Advanced Gas Reactor experiments. The overall uncertainties observed when modeling the fission product diffusion can result from uncertainties in model parameters, noisy experimental measurements, and deficiencies in the developed models. The three types of underlying uncertainties have not yet been properly quantified in open literature. Here, this paper presents the Bayesian uncertainty quantification (UQ) using massively parallelizable Markov chain Monte Carlo samplers. The uncertainties due to model parameters, model inadequacy, and experimental measurement noise are quantified, with the σ term used to represent the sum of the model inadequacy and measurement noise uncertainties. It is worth noting that this is the first time the σ term is inferred for nuclear fuel experiments, as compared to using prescribed values for uncertainty quantification in previous work. The parallelizable Markov chain Monte Carlo samplers efficiently infer the model parameters and the σ term, giving insight into physical parameters like diffusion coefficients and the combined model discrepancy and measurement noise. A subsequent forward uncertainty quantification (UQ) is also performed based on the calibration results to generate more accurate predictions of the Ag release. The model inadequacy plus experimental noise is the most dominant source of uncertainty compared to the parametric uncertainty. All the UQ analyses presented in this work are based on the second series of the irradiation experiments in the Advanced Gas Reactor program.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
A TOPAS model for lens-based proton radiography
Abstract Objective. Proton Radiography can be used in conjunction with proton therapy for patient positioning, real-time estimates of stopping power, and adaptive therapy in regions with motion. The modeling capability shown here can be used to evaluate lens-based radiography as an instantaneous proton-based radiographic technique. The utilization of user-friendly Monte Carlo program TOPAS enables collaborators and other users to easily conduct medical- and therapy- based simulations of the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE). The resulting transport model is an open-source Monte Carlo package for simulations of proton and heavy ion therapy treatments and concurrent particle imaging. Approach. The four-quadrupole, magnetic lens system of the 800-MeV proton beamline at LANSCE is modeled in TOPAS. Several imaging and contrast objects were modelled to assess transmission at energies from 230–930 MeV and different levels of particle collimation. At different proton energies, the strength of the magnetic field was scaled according to βγ, the inverse product of particle relativistic velocity and particle momentum. Main results. Materials with high atomic number, Z, (gold, gallium, bone-equivalent) generated more contrast than materials with low-Z (water, lung-equivalent, adipose-equivalent). A 5-mrad collimator was beneficial for tissue-to-contrast agent contrast, while a 10-mrad collimator was best to distinguish between different high-Z materials. Assessment with a step-wedge phantom showed water-equivalent path length did not scale directly according to predicted values but could be mapped more accurately with calibration. Poor image quality was observed at low energies (230 MeV), but improved as proton energy increased, with sub-mm resolution at 630 MeV. Significance. Proton radiography becomes viable for shallow bone structures at 330 MeV, and for deeper structures at 630 MeV. Visibility improves with use of high-Z contrast agents. This modality may be particularly viable at carbon therapy centers with accelerators capable of delivering high energy protons and could be performed with carbon therapy.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Characterization of Partially Observed Epidemics - Application to COVID-19
This report documents a statistical method for the "real-time" characterization of partially observed epidemics. Observations consist of daily counts of symptomatic patients, diagnosed with the disease. Characterization, in this context, refers to estimation of epidemiological parameters that can be used to provide short-term forecasts of the ongoing epidemic, as well as to provide gross information for the time-dependent infection rate. The characterization problem is formulated as a Bayesian inverse problem, and is predicated on a model for the distribution of the incubation period. The model parameters are estimated as distributions using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, thus quantifying the uncertainty in the estimates. The method is applied to the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020, using data at the country, provincial (e.g., states) and regional (e.g. county) levels. The epidemiological model includes a stochastic component due to uncertainties in the incubation period. This model-form uncertainty is accommodated by a pseudo-marginal Metropolis-Hastings MCMC sampler, which produces posterior distributions that reflect this uncertainty. We approximate the discrepancy between the data and the epidemiological model using Gaussian and negative binomial error models; the latter was motivated by the over-dispersed count data. For small daily counts we find the performance of the calibrated models to be similar for the two error models. For large daily counts the negative-binomial approximation is numerically unstable unlike the Gaussian error model. Application of the model at the country level (for the United States, Germany, Italy, etc.) generally provided accurate forecasts, as the data consisted of large counts which suppressed the day-to-day variations in the observations. Further, the bulk of the data is sourced over the duration before the relaxation of the curbs on population mixing, and is not confounded by any discernible country-wide second wave of infections. At the state-level, where reporting was poor or which evinced few infections (e.g., New Mexico), the variance in the data posed some, though not insurmountable, difficulties, and forecasts were able to capture the data with large uncertainty bounds. The method was found to be sufficiently sensitive to discern the flattening of the infection and epidemic curve due to shelter-in-place orders after around 90% quantile for the incubation distribution (about 10 days for COVID-19). The proposed model was also used at a regional level to compare the forecasts for the central and north-west regions of New Mexico. Modeling the data for these regions illustrated different disease spread dynamics captured by the model. While in the central region the daily counts peaked in the late April, in the north-west region the ramp-up continued for approximately three more weeks.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Characterizing and mitigating coherent errors in a trapped ion quantum processor using hidden inverses
Quantum computing testbeds exhibit high-fidelity quantum control over small collections of qubits, enabling performance of precise, repeatable operations followed by measurements. Currently, these noisy intermediate-scale devices can support a sufficient number of sequential operations prior to decoherence such that near term algorithms can be performed with proximate accuracy (like chemical accuracy for quantum chemistry problems). While the results of these algorithms are imperfect, these imperfections can help bootstrap quantum computer testbed development. Demonstrations of these algorithms over the past few years, coupled with the idea that imperfect algorithm performance can be caused by several dominant noise sources in the quantum processor, which can be measured and calibrated during algorithm execution or in post-processing, has led to the use of noise mitigation to improve typical computational results. Conversely, benchmark algorithms coupled with noise mitigation can help diagnose the nature of the noise, whether systematic or purely random. Here, we outline the use of coherent noise mitigation techniques as a characterization tool in trapped-ion testbeds. We perform model-fitting of the noisy data to determine the noise source based on realistic physics focused noise models and demonstrate that systematic noise amplification coupled with error mitigation schemes provides useful data for noise model deduction. Further, in order to connect lower level noise model details with application specific performance of near term algorithms, we experimentally construct the loss landscape of a variational algorithm under various injected noise sources coupled with error mitigation techniques. This type of connection enables application-aware hardware codesign, in which the most important noise sources in specific applications, like quantum chemistry, become foci of improvement in subsequent hardware generations.
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗