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Adaptive, Active Learning, and Multifidelity Monte Carlo Methods in the MOOSE Stochastic Tools Module

MOOSE is an open-source computational platform for constructing multi-physics models and executing them in a massively parallel fashion. It has a stochastic tools module (STM) for forward/inverse uncertainty quantification (UQ) and surrogate modeling. This presentation details some recent developments to the STM with respect to the implementation of adaptive, active learning, and multifidelity Monte Carlo methods for forward UQ of computational models. Specifically, the adaptive Monte Carlo methods include Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-driven algorithms like adaptive importance sampling and parallelized subset simulation for statistical QoI estimation, rare events analysis, and stochastic gradient-free optimization. The active learning methods include Gaussian Process (GP) surrogates and their training via Adam optimization, design of acquisition functions, and integration with samplers like Monte Carlo, adaptive importance, and parallelized subset simulation. These active learning methods are also designed to work in a batch mode, wherein, the required calls to the full computational model are executed in parallel whenever a user-specified batch size is met. The multifidelity methods in STM are broadly divided into two categories: hierarchical, where a defined hierarchy exists among the low-fidelity models, and peer, where all the low-fidelity models are treated equally. A GP surrogate is used to learn the differences between the low- and high-fidelity models in both multifidelity categories, and acquisition functions from the active learning classes are used to decide whether to rely on a low-fidelity model or call the expensive high-fidelity model. Alongside the software description and usage, applications are also presented to nuclear engineering computational models including a TRISO nuclear fuel particle, a reactor pressure vessel, and a heat-pipe microreactor.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Scalable line and plane relaxation in a parallel structured multigrid solver

The efficient solution of sparse, linear systems that arise through the discretization of partial differential equations remains a key challenge for a range of high performance scientific simulations. One approach for reducing data movement and improving performance is by exposing and exploiting structure in a problem through the use of robust structured multilevel solvers. By choosing coarsening that preserves the structure of the problem, these methods maintain efficient structured computation and communication throughout the multigrid hierarchy. However, when coarsening is not permitted to be dependent on the operator, anisotropy must be addressed by the smoother — producing error compatible for coarse-grid correction with structured coarsening. Here, the components required in a scalable parallel structured solver are described with a focus on memory and communication efficiency of robust smoothers. While the implementation of communication and memory reduction techniques in smoothers integrated in a complete 3D solver present a significant engineering challenge, a novel approach is proposed that addresses these challenges systematically through a change to the solver’s execution model. Enabled by user-level threading paired with a set of data and communication abstractions, this approach permits seamless aggregation of communication in plane smoothers — directly reusing code for a 2D distributed multilevel cycle. Results show an effective reduction in communication costs for coarse-grid problems, and result in a speedup of 8.7x in smoothing routines shown in Fig. 12 using this approach. This produces a significant improvement to strong scalability while maintaining favorable weak scaling behavior. Finally, a parallel scaling study using a series of refined meshes is included that demonstrates the effectiveness of this approach in an application of interest.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Hydrogeological assessment of CO2 containment assurance and wellbore integrity at a Gulf Coast storage site

Abstract A large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) initiative on the Texas Gulf Coast serves as a premier demonstration of the U.S. Department of Energy’s CarbonSAFE program. Targeting deep saline formations, specifically Oligo-Miocene deltaic sequences, the project aims to establish technical and commercial viability for geologic CO2 storage within a major industrial corridor. This study provides a rigorous hydrogeological assessment to support Class VI permitting by quantifying the high degree of containment security. Utilizing a compositional reservoir simulator, we developed a suite of 27 distinct simulation cases to evaluate vertical plume dynamics near both planned injection wells and proximal legacy infrastructure. To ensure numerical accuracy near wellbores, we implemented a refined mesh strategy, determining that a 5.6 ft × 5.6 ft grid refinement offered the optimal balance between computational efficiency and descriptive precision. The modeling framework utilized a systematic sensitivity-based approach to evaluate the mechanical redundancy of the subsurface system by performing a bounding analysis of wellbore interfaces against hypothetical high-permeability microannuli. By systematically isolating competing physical drivers, including permeability, porosity, gas hysteresis, thermal gradients, salinity, and solubility trapping (quantified via Henry’s law with dynamically adjusted coefficients), this work moves beyond binary assessments to establish a nuanced hierarchy of containment factors. The results confirm that primary trapping mechanisms (e.g., gas hysteresis and solubility), combined with the site's unique geomechanical stratigraphy, significantly restrict vertical mobility and reinforce the robust containment security of the reservoir. Baseline results demonstrate substantial vertical separation between the CO2 plume and the upper confining system, ensuring robust containment. Sensitivity analysis reveals that even under highly conservative bounding scenarios—assuming theoretical 10-Darcy pathways at specific wellbore locations—the 2,900-ft thick multi-layered confining zone remains a reliable barrier. In these hypothetical upper-bound cases, peak upward fluxes of CO2 and saltwater after 15 years of injection remain localized and dissipate rapidly within the lower sections of the confining interval, leaving the integrity of the seal uncompromised. Furthermore, the study identifies that while localized wellbore pathways define theoretical upper bounds of vertical migration, the Area of Review (AoR) is primarily sensitive to regional thermal gradients and hysteresis, which can influence the AoR by over 3,000 acres in pessimistic configurations. Also, primary trapping mechanisms, specifically gas hysteresis and solubility, work in tandem with the Gulf Coast’s unique geomechanical stratigraphy to significantly restrict vertical mobility. Ductile, smectite-rich mudstones facilitate natural borehole convergence and the self-healing of potential conduits, creating a natural geomechanical bridge that effectively mitigates migration potential at both current injection points and legacy-well locations. This comprehensive modeling effort demonstrates that the integration of high-resolution wellbore simulations and regional geomechanical observations confirms the long-term storage security of the studied site, providing a physics-based foundation for industrial-scale CCS deployments. This modeling framework establishes a baseline for future research into coupled geomechanical effects, such as time-dependent borehole convergence, to further refine long-term containment projections. Acknowledgements We thank the Gulf Coast Carbon Center (GCCC) at the Bureau of Economic Geology for foundational research support. We appreciate Alex Bump for technical guidance and David Hoffman for model mesh generation. This work used TACC’s Frontera cluster for simulations and CMG Ltd. software licenses provided to UT-Austin. This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy under Award Number DE-FE0032338. Disclaimer This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Office under the CarbonSAFE program, award Number DE-FE0032338. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Department of Energy or the United States Government.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Hydrogeological assessment of CO2 containment assurance and wellbore integrity at a Gulf Coast storage site

Abstract A large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) initiative on the Texas Gulf Coast serves as a premier demonstration of the U.S. Department of Energy’s CarbonSAFE program. Targeting deep saline formations, specifically Oligo-Miocene deltaic sequences, the project aims to establish technical and commercial viability for geologic CO2 storage within a major industrial corridor. This study provides a rigorous hydrogeological assessment to support Class VI permitting by quantifying the high degree of containment security. Utilizing a compositional reservoir simulator, we developed a suite of 27 distinct simulation cases to evaluate vertical plume dynamics near both planned injection wells and proximal legacy infrastructure. To ensure numerical accuracy near wellbores, we implemented a refined mesh strategy, determining that a 5.6 ft × 5.6 ft grid refinement offered the optimal balance between computational efficiency and descriptive precision. The modeling framework utilized a systematic sensitivity-based approach to evaluate the mechanical redundancy of the subsurface system by performing a bounding analysis of wellbore interfaces against hypothetical high-permeability microannuli. By systematically isolating competing physical drivers, including permeability, porosity, gas hysteresis, thermal gradients, salinity, and solubility trapping (quantified via Henry’s law with dynamically adjusted coefficients), this work moves beyond binary assessments to establish a nuanced hierarchy of containment factors. The results confirm that primary trapping mechanisms (e.g., gas hysteresis and solubility), combined with the site's unique geomechanical stratigraphy, significantly restrict vertical mobility and reinforce the robust containment security of the reservoir. Baseline results demonstrate substantial vertical separation between the CO2 plume and the upper confining system, ensuring robust containment. Sensitivity analysis reveals that even under highly conservative bounding scenarios—assuming theoretical 10-Darcy pathways at specific wellbore locations—the 2,900-ft thick multi-layered confining zone remains a reliable barrier. In these hypothetical upper-bound cases, peak upward fluxes of CO2 and saltwater after 15 years of injection remain localized and dissipate rapidly within the lower sections of the confining interval, leaving the integrity of the seal uncompromised. Furthermore, the study identifies that while localized wellbore pathways define theoretical upper bounds of vertical migration, the Area of Review (AoR) is primarily sensitive to regional thermal gradients and hysteresis, which can influence the AoR by over 3,000 acres in pessimistic configurations. Also, primary trapping mechanisms, specifically gas hysteresis and solubility, work in tandem with the Gulf Coast’s unique geomechanical stratigraphy to significantly restrict vertical mobility. Ductile, smectite-rich mudstones facilitate natural borehole convergence and the self-healing of potential conduits, creating a natural geomechanical bridge that effectively mitigates migration potential at both current injection points and legacy-well locations. This comprehensive modeling effort demonstrates that the integration of high-resolution wellbore simulations and regional geomechanical observations confirms the long-term storage security of the studied site, providing a physics-based foundation for industrial-scale CCS deployments. This modeling framework establishes a baseline for future research into coupled geomechanical effects, such as time-dependent borehole convergence, to further refine long-term containment projections. Acknowledgements We thank the Gulf Coast Carbon Center (GCCC) at the Bureau of Economic Geology for foundational research support. We appreciate Alex Bump for technical guidance and David Hoffman for model mesh generation. This work used TACC’s Frontera cluster for simulations and CMG Ltd. software licenses provided to UT-Austin. This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy under Award Number DE-FE0032338. Disclaimer This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Office under the CarbonSAFE program, award Number DE-FE0032338. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Department of Energy or the United States Government.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Evaluation of Heat Exchanger Technology for Integrated Energy System: Methodology and Preliminary Application

This report proposes a novel heat exchanger evaluation method, based on integrated QFD-AHP technique, to support strategic optimal selection of heat exchanger (HX) technology for integrated energy systems. The term “optimal selection” is defined as selecting a product (i.e., HX) that best meets various aspects of end user demand, including both technical and economic requirements. Compared to previous HX evaluation methods, the proposed approach allows decision makers to explicitly take into account the practical demand of customers (i.e., HX end users) which may vary depending on the HX application target. In addition, the proposed evaluation method can be used not only for high-level decisions to select HX type, but also for low-level decisions such as the selection of the key components including HX material or heat transfer fluid. The focus of this study is to describe the new HX evaluation method and to illustrate the overall HX evaluation and selection processes using the three nuclear heat application cases that represent the thermal integration between advanced nuclear reactors and industrial processes. As a preliminary study, three different types of HX, i.e., shell-and-tube heat exchanger, printed circuit heat exchanger, and heat pipe heat exchanger, were compared.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Leaky Buddies: Cross-Component Covert Channels on Integrated CPU-GPU Systems

Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) are ubiquitous components used across the range of today’s computing plat- forms, from phones and tablets, through personal computers, to high-end server class platforms. With the increasing importance of graphics and video workloads, recent processors are shipped with GPU devices that are integrated on the same chip. Integrated GPUs share some resources with the CPU and as a result, there is a potential for microarchitectural attacks from the GPU to the CPU or vice versa. We consider the potential for covert channel attacks that arise either from shared microarchitectural components (such as caches) or through shared contention domains (e.g., shared buses). We illustrate these two types of channels by developing two reliable covert channel attacks. The first covert channel uses the shared LLC cache in Intel’s integrated GPU architectures. The second is a contention based channel targeting the ring bus connecting the CPU and GPU to the LLC. This is the first demonstrated microarchitectural attack crossing the component boundary (GPU to CPU or vice versa). Cross-component channels introduce a number of new challenges that we had to overcome since they occur across heterogeneous components that use different computation models and are interconnected using asymmetric memory hierarchies. We also exploit GPU parallelism to increase the bandwidth of the communication, even without relying on a common clock. The LLC based channel achieves a bandwidth of 120 kbps with a low error rate of 2%, while the contention based channel delivers up to 400 kbps with a 0.8% error rate. We also demonstrate a proof- of-concept prime-and-probe side channel attack that probes the full LLC from the GPU.

Cyber secruity, high performance comptuing, Hetero↗

Multi-Label Classification with Constraint-Based Learning for Hierarchical Consistency

We explore the limitations of traditional crossentropy loss in a hierarchical multi-label classification setting and introduce a novel loss function. This function is designed to integrate hierarchical constraints directly into the training process. By incorporating such constraints into the loss, our approach slightly improves the logical consistency of predictions in structured domains. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach through experiments on primary site and histology classification by using electronic pathology reports. These results show that our proposed hierarchical loss function enhances the model's ability to produce predictions that are logically consistent with the natural data hierarchies, and it slightly improves predictive accuracy. Our framework may be extended to other hierarchical domains, however the performance gains are context specific.

Shivanna, Abhishek [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000665228593)↗

Commutative Algebra Modeling in Materials Science – A Case Study on Metal–Organic Frameworks (MOFs)

Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) are a class of important crystalline and highly porous materials whose hierarchical geometry and chemistry hinder interpretable predictions in materials properties. Commutative algebra is a branch of abstract algebra that has been rarely applied in data and material sciences. We introduce the first ever commutative algebra modeling and prediction in materials science. Specifically, category-specific commutative algebra (CSCA) is proposed as a new framework for MOF representation and learning. It integrates element-based categorization with multiscale algebraic invariants to encode both local coordination motifs and global network organization of MOFs. These algebraically consistent, chemically aware representations enable compact, interpretable, and data efficient modeling of MOF properties such as Henry’s constants and uptake capacities for common gases. Compared to traditional geometric and graph-based approaches, CSCA achieves comparable or superior predictive accuracy while substantially improving interpretability and stability across data sets. By aligning commutative algebra with the chemical hierarchy, the CSCA establishes a rigorous and generalizable paradigm for understanding structure and property relationships in porous materials and provides a nonlinear algebra-based framework for data-driven material discovery.

Khaemba, Caleb S.↗

Intelligent resolution: Integrating Cryo-EM with AI-driven multi-resolution simulations to observe the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 replication-transcription machinery in action

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) replication transcription complex (RTC) is a multi-domain protein responsible for replicating and transcribing the viral mRNA inside a human cell. Attacking RTC function with pharmaceutical compounds is a pathway to treating COVID-19. Conventional tools, e.g., cryo-electron microscopy and all-atom molecular dynamics (AAMD), do not provide sufficiently high resolution or timescale to capture important dynamics of this molecular machine. Consequently, we develop an innovative workflow that bridges the gap between these resolutions, using mesoscale fluctuating finite element analysis (FFEA) continuum simulations and a hierarchy of AI-methods that continually learn and infer features for maintaining consistency between AAMD and FFEA simulations. We leverage a multi-site distributed workflow manager to orchestrate AI, FFEA, and AAMD jobs, providing optimal resource utilization across HPC centers. Our study provides unprecedented access to study the SARS-CoV-2 RTC machinery, while providing general capability for AI-enabled multi-resolution simulations at scale.

Trifan, Anda↗

High-Temperature Particle Heat Exchanger for sCO2 Power Cycles [Award 30342]

This report describes the design, development, and testing of a prototype 100 kWt particle-to-supercritical CO 2 (sCO2) heat exchanger. An analytic hierarchy process was implemented to compare and evaluate alternative heat-exchanger designs (fluidized bed, shell-and-plate moving packed bed, and shell-and-tube moving packed bed) that could meet the high pressure (≥ 20 MPa) and high temperature (≥ 700 °C) operational requirements associated with sCO2 power cycles. Cost, heat-transfer coefficient, structural reliability, manufacturability, parasitics and heat losses, scalability, compatibility, erosion and corrosion, transient operation, and inspection ease were considered in the evaluation. A 100 kWt shell-and-plate design was selected for construction and integration with Sandia’s falling particle receiver system that heats the particles using concentrated sunlight. Sandia worked with industry to design and construct the moving packed-bed shell-and-plate heat exchanger. Tests were performed to evaluate its performance using both electrical heating and concentrated sunlight to heat the particles. Overall heat transfer coefficients at off-design conditions (reduced operating temperatures and only three stainless steel banks in the counter-crossflow heat exchanger) were measured to be approximately ~25 - 70 W/m 2 -K, significantly lower than simulated values of >100 W/m 2 -K. Tests using the falling particle receiver to heat the particles with concentrated sunlight yielded overall heat transfer coefficients of ~35 – 80 W/m 2 -K with four banks (including a nickel-alloy bank above the three stainless steel banks). The overall heat transfer coefficient was observed to decrease with increasing particle inlet temperatures, which contrasted the results of simulations that showed an increase in heat transfer coefficient with temperature due to increased effective particle-bed thermal conductivity from radiation. The likely cause of the discrepancy was particle-flow maldistributions and funnel flow within the heat exchanger caused by internal ledges and cross-bracing, which could have been exacerbated by increased particle-wall friction at higher temperatures. Additional heat loss at higher temperatures may also contribute to a lower overall heat-transfer coefficient. Design challenges including pressure drop, particle and sCO2 flow maldistribution, and reduced heat transfer coefficient are discussed with approaches for mitigation in future designs. Lessons learned regarding instrumentation, performance characterization, and operation of particle components and sCO2 flow loops are also discussed. Finally, a 200 MWt commercial-scale shell-and-plate heat-exchanger design based on the concepts investigated in this report is proposed.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Use of physics to improve solar forecast: Part III, impacts of different cloud types

Cloud-type impacts present a great challenge to solar forecasting due to diverse and complex cloud-radiation interactions. This third part of our paper sequence seeks to address this challenge by quantifying the forecast accuracies under eight cloud types: cumulus (Cu), stratified clouds (St), altocumulus (Ac), altostratus (As), cirrostratus/anvil (Cr), cirrus (Ci), congestus (Co), deep convective clouds (Dc) across four physics-informed persistence models reported in Part I. To generalize the cloud impacts, the eight cloud types are further grouped into three cloud categories based on their common features: weak convective clouds, stratiform clouds, and strong convective clouds. Here, the decade-long (2001 ~ 2014) collocated measurements of irradiances and cloud types at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program South Great Plain (SGP) Central Facility site are used for model evaluation. Results reveal a clear performance hierarchy for global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI): best for weak convective clouds and cirrus, intermediate for stratiform clouds, and worst for strong convective clouds. Performance for diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) is less influenced by cloud types. Cloud albedo dominates all three irradiances for Dc, while both cloud albedo and cloud fraction are influential for other cloud types. A 12 %~33 % improvement in accuracy at 6-hour lead time compared to the benchmark smart model confirms the effectiveness of incorporating physics into the models for various cloud types; further improvements are expected by directly integrating cloud type information into forecasting models by modifying the physical formulation of cloud-radiation interaction, and/or using more advanced machine learning models.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Neutrino Hunting: Looking through a UV Lens Scintillation Photon Detection in a Large-Volume Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber, Exposed to a Multi-GeV Charged Particle Beam

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) will be a world-class neutrino observatory and nucleon decay detector designed to answer fundamental questions about elementary particles and their role in the universe. The DUNE experiment will consist of a a Near Detector, located at Fermilab, and a Far Detector, approximately 1.5~km underground at the Sanford Underground Research Facility in South Dakota, located $\sim$1300~km away. The accelerator complex at Fermilab will host an intense beam of neutrinos directed toward the two detectors. My dissertation centers on the implementation of technologies used to detect scintillation photon signals in liquid argon in the context of the DUNE's Far Detector Single-Phase (SP) module design, and features direct contributions to the Photon Detection System (PDS) deployed in the ProtoDUNE-SP Large-Volume Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) prototype. The PDS is needed for non-beam event timing, such as atmospheric neutrinos, proton d ecay, and supernova detection. The PDS provides a prompt signal ($t_{0}$ information) for micro-second event time determination, which improves the TPC's spatial localization along drift direction, enables accurate ionization-signal-attenuation determination, and even provides calorimetry. My dissertation will discuss an overview of the DUNE and ProtoDUNE-SP experiment and how we detect neutrinos in LAr, via charge and scintillation light. It will discuss my core experimental and analysis work, in regards to the Photon Detection System; including my contributions in establishing procedures for the commissioning and integration for the Photon Detector System that will be valuable during the construction, installation, commissioning, and operations of the DUNE Far Detector. In addition, it will comprehensively discuss the capability of three different photon detection technologies, and their characteristics and responses to muon and electron beam particles over a range of beam momenta , from 0.3~GeV/$c$ - 7~GeV/$c$. Further, the overall progress detailed in this thesis will help pave the way toward understanding the physical properties of these detectors, which will contribute to the success of the sensitivity measurements required for determining the neutrino mass hierarchy and $\delta_{CP}$.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Reconstruction framework advancements to support streaming for the ePIC detector at the EIC

The ePIC collaboration adopted the JANA2 framework to manage its reconstruction algorithms. This framework has since evolved substantially in response to ePIC’s needs. There have been three main design drivers: integrating cleanly with the Podio-based data models and other layers of the key4hep stack, enabling external configuration of existing components, and supporting timeframe splitting for streaming readout. The result is a unified component model featuring a new declarative interface for specifying inputs, outputs, parameters, services, and resources. This interface enables the user to instantiate, configure, and wire components via an external file. One critical new addition to the component model is a hierarchical decomposition of data boundaries into levels such as Run, Timeframe, PhysicsEvent, and Subevent. Two new component abstractions, Folder and Unfolder, are introduced in order to traverse this hierarchy, e.g. by splitting or merging. The pre-existing components can now operate at different event levels, and JANA2 will automatically construct the corresponding parallel processing topology. This means that a user may write an algorithm once, and configure it at runtime to operate on timeframes or on physics events. Overall, these changes mean that the user requires less knowledge about the framework internals, obtains greater flexibility with configuration, and gains the ability to reuse the existing abstractions in new streaming contexts.

Brei, Nathan [Thomas Jefferson National Accelerato↗

My vehicle is a data mine

In this talk we explore how analysis of vehicle data provides information of individual vehicle behaviors, information of other vehicles in the flow of traffic, and insights into the behavior of drivers. Over the last two decades traditional passenger vehicles have been transformed from integrated two-port electrical nodes to cyber-physical systems of communicating computational nodes whose individual state and control variables are shared on a standard controller area network (CAN) bus. As driver assistance systems have crept into vehicles as safety features, driver behaviors can be observed through analysis of the data streams on the CAN bus as these new nodes communicate with one another. The properties of these data streams, as well as architectures and approaches to gather the data, are important to consider when drawing conclusions on the relevance of the data in making decisions at varying levels of the information hierarchy. We will demonstrate several technical challenges associated with these data collection processes, as well as preliminary results that demonstrate application relevance of the data to behavior, traffic, and systems domains.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Idealized Simulations of the Tropical Climate and Variability in the Single Column Atmosphere Model (SCAM): Radiative-Convective Equilibrium

To explore the interactions among column processes in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), the single-column version of CAM (SCAM) is integrated for 1000 days in radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE) with tropical values of boundary conditions, spanning a parameter or configuration space of model physics versions (v5 vs. v6), vertical resolution (standard and 60 levels), sea surface temperature (SST), and some interpretation-driven experiments. The simulated time-mean climate is reasonable, near observations and RCE of a cyclic cloud-resolving model. Updraft detrainment in the deep convection scheme produces distinctive grid-scale structures in humidity and cloud, which also interact with radiative transfer processes. These grid artifacts average out in multi-column RCE results reported elsewhere, illustrating the nuts-and-bolts interpretability that SCAM adds to the hierarchy of model configurations. Multi-day oscillations of precipitation arise from descent of warm convection-capping layers starting near the tropopause, eventually reset by a burst of convective deepening. Experiments reveal how these oscillations depend critically on an internal parameter that controls the number of neutral buoyancy levels allowed for determining cloud top and computing dilute convective available potential energy in the deep convection scheme, and merely modified a little by disabling cloud-base radiation (heating of cloud base). This strong dependence of transient behavior in 1D on this parameter will be tested in the second part of this work, in which SCAM is coupled to a parameterized dynamics of two-dimensional, linearized gravity wave, and in the 3D simulations in future study.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

J/ ψ elliptic and triangular flow in Pb-Pb collisions at \( \sqrt{s_{\mathrm{NN}}} \) = 5 . 02 TeV

The inclusive J/ ψ elliptic ( v 2 ) and triangular ( v 3 ) flow coefficients measured at forward rapidity (2 . 5 < y < 4) and the v 2 measured at midrapidity (| y | < 0 . 9) in Pb-Pb collisions at \( \sqrt{s_{\mathrm{NN}}} \) = 5 . 02 TeV using the ALICE detector at the LHC are reported. The entire Pb-Pb data sample collected during Run 2 is employed, amounting to an integrated luminosity of 750 μ b – 1 at forward rapidity and 93 μ b – 1 at midrapidity. The results are obtained using the scalar product method and are reported as a function of transverse momentum p T and collision centrality. At midrapidity, the J/ ψ v 2 is in agreement with the forward rapidity measurement. The centrality averaged results indicate a positive J/ ψ v 3 with a significance of more than 5 σ at forward rapidity in the p T range 2 < p T < 5 GeV/ c . The forward rapidity v 2 , v 3 , and v 3 /v 2 results at low and intermediate p T ( p T ≲ 8 GeV/ c ) exhibit a mass hierarchy when compared to pions and D mesons, while converging into a species-independent curve at higher p T . At low and intermediate p T , the results could be interpreted in terms of a later thermalization of charm quarks compared to light quarks, while at high p T , path-length dependent effects seem to dominate. The J/ ψ v 2 measurements are further compared to a microscopic transport model calculation. Using a simplified extension of the quark scaling approach involving both light and charm quark flow components, it is shown that the D-meson v n measurements can be described based on those for charged pions and J/ ψ flow.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Assessing the cumulative effects of nearshore habitat restoration actions for multiple populations of juvenile salmon in Whidbey Basin, Washington: foundation and approach for synthesis and evaluation

Ecosystem restoration is a common tool for re-establishing ecosystem processes, structures, and functions to improve biodiversity and services in coastal and estuarine ecosystems. In the Salish Sea, salmon habitats have been fragmented, reduced in size, and diminished in quality, and the ecosystem processes that form and sustain these habitats have been degraded and disrupted as well. This loss is especially prevalent in estuaries, where up to 90% of former salmon habitat has been lost or compromised. Salmon species are integral to the identities and cultures of people in the Pacific Northwest, yet salmon abundances remain at historic lows, especially in urbanized areas. Recent investments in restoration are creating rearing habitat and repairing lost ecosystem function. However, restoration efforts in this region have largely proceeded at the site scale, with less attention to big-picture thinking regarding how restoration will effectively recover degraded or lost habitats for target species. As a result, no landscape-scale evaluation program exists, and the cumulative benefits of multiple interventions are unknown. We describe innovative methods for science synthesis related to the evaluation of cumulative effects of ecosystem restoration for Pacific salmon, using years of existing, but disparate data. Building from previous work on cumulative effects evaluation and incorporating a hierarchy of hypotheses approach, we propose using causal inference across numerous hypotheses in a framework to assess the cumulative benefits to Pacific salmon from multiple estuarine restoration projects. We present the framework as a method that can be used to address many complex questions and provide examples from the Salish Sea where the approach is being implemented. The framework draws on science synthesis from numerous fields and uses a hierarchy of hypotheses, causal analysis at multiple scales, and a new hierarchy of synthesis for assessing multiple lines of evidence documenting restoration effects on Pacific salmon. We propose causal inference to synthesize dissimilar data streams, in our case, to identify various manifestations of cumulative effects of restoration and benefits to salmon, and to further inform restoration and recovery planning. A unifying framework would allow for the detection of thresholds at which restoration provides measurable improvement and would greatly advance understanding of the effects of restoration on ecosystems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗