Impact Risk Assessment Dashboard: 2024 PDC25 Hypothetical Asteroid Impact Exercise, Epoch 1
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Blasim: A computational tool to assess ice impact damage on engine blades
A portable computer called BLASIM was developed at NASA LeRC to assess ice impact damage on aircraft engine blades. In addition to ice impact analyses, the code also contains static, dynamic, resonance margin, and supersonic flutter analysis capabilities. Solid, hollow, superhybrid, and composite blades are supported. An optional preprocessor (input generator) was also developed to interactively generate input for BLASIM. The blade geometry can be defined using a series of airfoils at discrete input stations or by a finite element grid. The code employs a coarse, fixed finite element mesh containing triangular plate finite elements to minimize program execution time. Ice piece is modeled using an equivalent spherical objective that has a high velocity opposite that of the aircraft and parallel to the engine axis. For local impact damage assessment, the impact load is considered as a distributed force acting over a region around the impact point. The average radial strain of the finite elements along the leading edge is used as a measure of the local damage. To estimate damage at the blade root, the impact is treated as an impulse and a combined stress failure criteria is employed. Parametric studies of local and root ice impact damage, and post-impact dynamics are discussed for solid and composite blades.
Reddy, E. S.↗
BLASIM - A computational tool to assess ice impact damage on engine blades
A portable computer code called BLASIM is developed at NASA LeRC to assess the ice impact damage on aircraft engine blades. In addition to the ice impact analyses, the code is also capable of carrying out static, dynamic, resonance margin and flutter analyses. The blade can be solid, hollow, superhybrid or composite material. An optional preprocessor (input generator) is also developed to generate input to the code through interactive process. The blade geometry can be defined either by a series of airfoils at discrete input stations or by a finite element grid. The code employs a coarse fixed finite element mesh with triangular plate finite elements and has quick turnaround time. The ice piece is modeled as an equivalent spherical object and has the velocity opposite to that of the aircraft with direction parallel to the engine axis. For the local impact damage assessment, the impact force is considered as a distributed load acting over a region around the impact point and the average radial strain of the finite elements along the leading edge is taken as a measure of the local damage. To estimate the damage at the blade root, the impact is considered to be an impulse and a combined stress failure criteria is employed. Parametric studies for local and root ice impact damage, and post-impact dynamics are discussed for solid and composite blades.
Reddy, E. S.↗
Comparing Two Approaches for Assessing Observation Impact
Langland and Baker introduced an approach to assess the impact of observations on the forecasts. In that approach, a state-space aspect of the forecast is defined and a procedure is derived ultimately relating changes in the aspect with changes in the observing system. Some features of the state-space approach are to be noted: the typical choice of forecast aspect is rather subjective and leads to incomplete assessment of the observing system, it requires availability of a verification state that is in practice correlated with the forecast, and it involves the adjoint operator of the entire data assimilation system and is thus constrained by the validity of this operator. This article revisits the topic of observation impacts from the perspective of estimation theory. An observation-space metric is used to allow inferring observation impact on the forecasts without the limitations just mentioned. Using differences of observation-minus-forecast residuals obtained from consecutive forecasts leads to the following advantages: (i) it suggests a rather natural choice of forecast aspect that directly links to the data assimilation procedure, (ii) it avoids introducing undesirable correlations in the forecast aspect since verification is done against the observations, and (iii) it does not involve linearization and use of adjoints. The observation-space approach has the additional advantage of being nearly cost free and very simple to implement. In its simplest form it reduces to evaluating the statistics of observationminus- background and observation-minus-analysis residuals with traditional methods. Illustrations comparing the approaches are given using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System.
Variational Analysis↗
Atmospheric environmental implications of propulsion systems
Three independent studies have been conducted for assessing the impact of rocket launches on the earth's environment. These studies have addressed issues of acid rain in the troposphere, ozone depletion in the stratosphere, toxicity of chemical rocket exhaust products, and the potential impact on global warming from carbon dioxide emissions from rocket launches. Local, regional, and global impact assessments were examined and compared with both natural sources and anthropogenic sources of known atmospheric pollutants with the following conclusions: (1) Neither solid nor liquid rocket launches have a significant impact on the earth's global environment, and there is no real significant difference between the two. (2) Regional and local atmospheric impacts are more significant than global impacts, but quickly return to normal background conditions within a few hours after launch. And (3) vastly increased space launch activities equivalent to 50 U.S. Space Shuttles or 50 Russian Energia launches per year would not significantly impact these conclusions. However, these assessments, for the most part, are based upon homogeneous gas phase chemistry analysis; heterogeneous chemistry from exhaust particulates, such as aluminum oxide, ice contrails, soot, etc., and the influence of plume temperature and afterburning of fuel-rich exhaust products, need to be further addressed. It was the consensus of these studies that computer modeling of interactive plume chemistry with the atmosphere needs to be improved and computer models need to be verified with experimental data. Rocket exhaust plume chemistry can be modified with propellant reformulation and changes in operating conditions, but, based upon the current state of knowledge, it does not appear that significant environmental improvements from propellant formulation changes can be made or are warranted. Flight safety, reliability, and cost improvements are paramount for any new rocket system, and these important aspects cannot be compromised. A detailed environmental cost-benefit-risk analysis must be conducted before any new chemistry or changes in rocket operating conditions should be seriously considered for any future space or defense applications. This paper presents a summary of the results of environmental assessments contained in these independent studies.
Mcdonald, Allan J.↗
Challenges of Debris-Impact Risk Assessment for Robotic Spacecraft
This paper describes an orbital debris impact risk assessment performed on the command and data subsystem electronics box of QuikSCAT, a functioning spacecraft with approximately 18 years on orbit. Several aspects of the analysis are paid particular attention. First is the modeling of a thermal blanket at a small stand-off distance from the box chassis. The properties of the blanket are such that under some assumptions, it may be treated as an effective bumper shield, and under other assumptions, it may not. The assumptions and their effects on the results of the analysis are explored. Similarly, the configuration of the electronic components inside the chassis are such that several definitions of failure criteria appear plausible. The results of each treatment are presented together and compared with the status of the actual electronics box. The failure predictions vary widely between treatments, and the more conservative assumption sets predict incredulously high probabilities of failure. This is problematic because the conservative assumptions are the ones typically used in analyses for flight projects.
Ratliff, Martin↗
Toward Right-Fidelity Rotorcraft Conceptual Design
The aviation Advanced Design Office (ADO) of the US Army Aeroflightdynamics Directorate (AMRDEC) performs conceptual design of advanced Vertical Takeoff and Landing (VTOL) concepts in support of the Army's development and acquisition of new aviation systems. In particular, ADO engages in system synthesis to assess the impact of new technologies and their application to satisfy emerging warfighter needs and requirements. Fundamental to ADO being successful in accomplishing its role; is the ability to evaluate a wide array of proposed air vehicle concepts, and independently synthesize new concepts to inform Army and DoD decision makers about the tradespace in which decisions will be made (Figure 1). ADO utilizes a conceptual design (CD) process in the execution of its role. Benefiting from colocation with NASA rotorcraft researchers at the Ames Research Center, ADO and NASA have engaged in a survey of the current rotorcraft PD practices and begun the process of improving those capabilities to enable effective design and development of the next generation of VTOL systems. A unique aspect of CD in ADO is the fact that actual designs developed in-house are not intended to move forward in the development process. Rather, they are used as reference points in discussions about requirements development and technology impact. The ultimate products of ADO CD efforts are technology impact assessments and specifications which guide industry design activity. The fact that both the requirement and design are variables in the tradespace adds to the complexity of the CD process. A frequent need is ability to assess the relative "cost" of variations in requirement for a diverse set of VTOL configurations. Each of these configurations may have fundamentally different response characteristics to this requirement variation, and such insight into how different requirements drive different designs is a critical insight ADO attempts to provide decision makers. The processes and tools utilized are driven by the timeline in which questions must be answered. This can range from quick "back-of-the-envelope" assessments of a configuration made in an afternoon, to more detailed tradespace explorations that can take upwards of a year to complete. A variety of spreadsheet based tools and conceptual design codes are currently in use. The in-house developed conceptual sizing code RC (Rotorcraft) has been the preferred tool of choice for CD activity for a number of years. Figure 2 illustrates the long standing coupling between RC and solid modeling tools for layout, as well as a number of ad-hoc interfaces with external analyses. RC contains a sizing routine that is built around the use of momentum theory for rotors, classic finite wing theory, a referred parameter engine model, and semi-emperical weight estimation techniques. These methods lend themselves to rapid solutions, measured in seconds and minutes. The successful use of RC, however requires careful consideration of model input parameters and judicious comparison with existing aircraft to avoid unjustified extrapolation of results. RC is in fact a legacy of a series of codes whose development started in the early 1970s, and is best suited to the study of conventional helicopters and XV-15 style tiltrotors. Other concepts have been analyzed with RC, but typically it became necessary to modify the source code and methods for each unique configuration. Recent activity has lead to the development of a new code, NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft (NDARC). NDARC uses a similar level of analytical fidelity as RC, but is built on a new framework intended to improve modularity and ability to rapidly model a wider array of concepts. Critical to achieving this capability is the decomposition of the aircraft system into a series of fundamental components which can then be assembled to form a wide-array of configurations. The paper will provide an overview of NDARC and its capabilities.
Sinsay, Jeffrey D.↗
Kennedy Space Center Florida Scrub-Jay Compensation Plan
Many organizations have interest in using NASA property on KSC. The purpose of this document is to consolidate the goals of ecosystem management associated with Florida Scrub-Jays and compliance with the Endangered Species Act (ESA) in order to streamline and reduce the costs of facility planning, impact assessment, and impact minimization. This will simplify the process and reduce regulatory uncertainty.However, the resulting process must be consistent with the Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge (MINWR) Comprehensive Conservation Plan (CCP). In addition, this document considers anticipated construction impacts on KSC during the next 10 years and summarizes priorities in a spatially explicit manner. The document describes anticipated compensation requirements to facilitate restoration of degraded habitat in areas most important to the KSC Scrub-Jay population through resources provided to MINWR. The plan assumes that all construction on KSC is compensated on KSC.
Compensation Plan↗
Introduction to Asteroid Impact Risk Assessment
This presentation provides an introductory overview of key factors involved in the asteroid impact threat assessment and risk modeling performed for the Planetary Defense Conference hypothetical impact exercises.
ATAP↗
An Approach to Assess Observation Impact Based on Observation-Minus-Forecast Residuals
Langland and Baker (2004) introduced an approach to assess the impact of observations on the forecasts. In that, a state-space aspect of the forecast is defined and a procedure is derived that relates changes in the aspect with changes in the initial conditions associated with the assimilation of observations) ultimately providing information about the impact of individual observations on the forecast. Some features of the approach are to be noted. The typical choice of forecast aspect employed in related works is rather arbitrary and leads to an incomplete assessment of the observing system. Furthermore, the state-space forecast aspect requires availability of a verification state that should ideally be uncorrelated with the forecast but in practice is not. Lastly, the approach involves the adjoint operator of the entire data assimilation system and as such it is constrained by the validity of this operator. In this presentation, an observation-space metric is used that, for a relatively time-homogeneous observing system, allows inferring observation impact on the forecast without some of the limitations above. Specifically, using observation-minus-forecast residuals leads to an approach with the following features: (i) it suggests a rather natural choice of forecast aspect, directly linked to the analysis system and providing full assessment of the observations; (ii) it naturally avoids introducing undesirable correlations in the forecast aspect by verifying against the observations; and (iii) it does not involve linearization and use of adjoints; therefore being applicable to any length of forecast. The state and observation-space approaches might be complementary to some degree, and involve different limitations and complexities. Illustrations are given using the NASA GEOS-5 data.
Todling, Ricardo↗
A Methodology to Assess the Impact of Optical and Electronic Crosstalk in a New Generation of Sensors Using Heritage Sensors
Electronic and optical crosstalk are radiometric challenges that often exist in the focal plane design in many sensors Such as MODIS. A methodology is described to assess the impact due to optical and electronic crosstalk on the measured radiance, and thereafter, the retrieval of geophysical products using MODIS Level I data sets. Based on a postulated set of electronic and optical crosstalk coefficients, and a set of MODIS scenes, we have simulated a system signal contamination on any detector on a focal plane when another detector on that focal plane is stimulated with a geophysical signal. The original MODIS scenes and the crosstalk impacted scenes can be used with validated geophysical algorithms to derive the final data products. Products contaminated with crosstalk are then compared to those without contamination to assess the impact magnitude and location, and will allow us to separate Out-Of-Band (OOB) leaks from hand-to-hand optical crosstalk, and identify potential failures to meet climate research requirements.
Oudrari, Hassan↗
Combining Satellite Data and Models to Assess the Impacts of Urbanization on the Continental US Surface Climate
Urbanization is one of the most important and long lasting forms of land transformation. Urbanization affects the surface climate in different ways: (1) by reduction of the vegetation fraction causing subsequent reduction in photosynthesis and plant s water transpiration, (2) by alternation of surface runoff and infiltration and their impacts on soil moisture and the water table, (3) by change in the surface albedo and surface energy partitioning, and (4) by transformation of the surface roughness length and modification of surface fluxes. Land cover and land use change maps including urban areas have been developed and will be used in a suite of land surface models of different complexity to assess the impacts of urbanization on the continental US surface climate. These maps and datasets based on a full range of available satellite data and ground observations will be used to characterize distant-past (pre-urban), recent-past (2001), present (2010), and near future (2020) land cover and land use changes. The main objective of the project is to assess the impacts of these land transformation on past, current and near-future climate and the potential feedbacks from these changes on the atmospheric, hydrologic, biological, and socio-economic properties beyond the immediate metropolitan regions of cities and their near suburbs. The WRF modeling system will be used to explore the nature and the magnitude of the two-way interactions between urban lands and the atmosphere and assess the overall regional dynamic effect of urban expansion on the northeastern US weather and climate
Bounoua, L.↗
Assessing the impact of pipeline construction on coniferous wetlands in central Michigan with aerial photography
The Remote Sensing Project at Michigan State University is using repetitive aerial photography to assess the impact of pipeline construction on coniferous wetlands in central Michigan. Preliminary results indicate that ponding, dieback, windthrow, and vegetation changes are readily detectable on medium-scale aerial photography. It is found that the major effect of the pipeline construction is the alteration of the water level, either by flooding or dessication. The most serious damage generally occurs when pipelines cross seepage and spiring wetland types; specific damage is related to the impoundment of the natural water flow, producing flooding on the upflow side of the pipeline and dessication of these wetlands below the pipeline rights-of-way.
Kittleson, K. M.↗
Shuttle Debris Impact Tool Assessment Using the Modern Design of Experiments
Computational tools have been developed to estimate thermal and mechanical reentry loads experienced by the Space Shuttle Orbiter as the result of cavities in the Thermal Protection System (TPS). Such cavities can be caused by impact from ice or insulating foam debris shed from the External Tank (ET) on liftoff. The reentry loads depend on cavity geometry and certain Shuttle state variables, among other factors. Certain simplifying assumptions have been made in the tool development about the cavity geometry variables. For example, the cavities are all modeled as shoeboxes , with rectangular cross-sections and planar walls. So an actual cavity is typically approximated with an idealized cavity described in terms of its length, width, and depth, as well as its entry angle, exit angle, and side angles (assumed to be the same for both sides). As part of a comprehensive assessment of the uncertainty in reentry loads estimated by the debris impact assessment tools, an effort has been initiated to quantify the component of the uncertainty that is due to imperfect geometry specifications for the debris impact cavities. The approach is to compute predicted loads for a set of geometry factor combinations sufficient to develop polynomial approximations to the complex, nonparametric underlying computational models. Such polynomial models are continuous and feature estimable, continuous derivatives, conditions that facilitate the propagation of independent variable errors. As an additional benefit, once the polynomial models have been developed, they require fewer computational resources to execute than the underlying finite element and computational fluid dynamics codes, and can generate reentry loads estimates in significantly less time. This provides a practical screening capability, in which a large number of debris impact cavities can be quickly classified either as harmless, or subject to additional analysis with the more comprehensive underlying computational tools. The polynomial models also provide useful insights into the sensitivity of reentry loads to various cavity geometry variables, and reveal complex interactions among those variables that indicate how the sensitivity of one variable depends on the level of one or more other variables. For example, the effect of cavity length on certain reentry loads depends on the depth of the cavity. Such interactions are clearly displayed in the polynomial response models.
DeLoach, R.↗
The Missing Economic Risks in Assessments of Climate Change Impacts
Economic assessments of the potential future risks of climate change have been omitting or grossly underestimating many of the most serious consequences for lives and livelihoods because these risks are difficult to quantify precisely and lie outside of human experience. Political and business leaders need to understand the scale of these ‘missing risks’ because they could have drastic and potentially catastrophic impacts on citizens, communities and companies. Scientists are growing in confidence about the evidence for the largest potential impacts of climate change and the rising probability that major thresholds in the Earth’s climate system will be breached as global mean surface temperature rises, particularly if warming exceeds 2°C above the pre-industrial level. These impacts include: (1) Destabilisation of ice sheets and glaciers and consequent sea level rise. (2) Stronger tropical cyclones. (3) Extreme heat impacts. (4) More frequent and intense floods and droughts. (5) Disruptions to oceanic and atmospheric circulation. (6) Destruction of biodiversity and collapse of ecosystems. Many of these impacts will grow and occur concurrently across the world as global temperature climbs. Some of these impacts involve thresholds in the climate system beyond which major impacts accelerate, or become irreversible and unstoppable. When a threshold is breached, it might cause one or more other thresholds to be exceeded as well, leading to a cascade of impacts. Many of these impacts could exceed the capacity of human populations to adapt, and would significantly affect and disrupt the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of millions, if not billions, of people worldwide. These impacts would also undermine economic growth and development, exacerbate poverty and destabilise communities. Economic assessments fail to take account of the potential for large concurrent impacts across the world that would cause mass migration, displacement and conflict, with huge loss of life. Economic assessments that are expressed solely in terms of effects on output (e.g. gross domestic product), or that only extrapolate from past experience, or that use inappropriate discounting, do not provide a clear indication of the potential risks to lives and livelihoods. It is likely that there are additional risks that we are not yet anticipating simply because scientists have not yet detected their possibility, as we have entered a period of climate change that is unprecedented in human history. Some advances are being made in improving economic assessments of climate change impacts but much more progress is required if assessments are to offer reliable guidance for political and business leaders on the biggest risks. The lack of firm quantifications is not a reason to ignore these risks, and when the missing risks are taken into account, the case for strong and urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions becomes even more compelling.
DeFries, Ruth↗
Geographic Information Systems and Web Page Development
The Facilities Engineering and Architectural Branch is responsible for the design and maintenance of buildings, laboratories, and civil structures. In order to improve efficiency and quality, the FEAB has dedicated itself to establishing a data infrastructure based on Geographic Information Systems, GIS. The value of GIS was explained in an article dating back to 1980 entitled "Need for a Multipurpose Cadastre" which stated, "There is a critical need for a better land-information system in the United States to improve land-conveyance procedures, furnish a basis for equitable taxation, and provide much-needed information for resource management and environmental planning." Scientists and engineers both point to GIS as the solution. What is GIS? According to most text books, Geographic Information Systems is a class of software that stores, manages, and analyzes mapable features on, above, or below the surface of the earth. GIS software is basically database management software to the management of spatial data and information. Simply put, Geographic Information Systems manage, analyze, chart, graph, and map spatial information. GIS can be broken down into two main categories, urban GIS and natural resource GIS. Further still, natural resource GIS can be broken down into six sub-categories, agriculture, forestry, wildlife, catchment management, archaeology, and geology/mining. Agriculture GIS has several applications, such as agricultural capability analysis, land conservation, market analysis, or whole farming planning. Forestry GIs can be used for timber assessment and management, harvest scheduling and planning, environmental impact assessment, and pest management. GIS when used in wildlife applications enables the user to assess and manage habitats, identify and track endangered and rare species, and monitor impact assessment.
Reynolds, Justin↗
LOX/GOX mechanical impact tester assessment
The performances of three existing high pressure oxygen mechanical impact test systems were tested at two different test sites. The systems from one test site were fabricated from the same design drawing, whereas the system tested at the other site was of different design. Energy delivered to the test sample for each test system was evaluated and compared. Results were compared to the reaction rates obtained.
Bransford, J. W.↗
Assessing the Impact of SMAP Soil Moisture Data Assimilation on the Simulation and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai
The role of soil moisture in the evolution of tropical cyclones (TCs) approaching land has long been recognized. Dry land surface conditions can lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land (often associated with changes in precipitation structure), whereas very wet conditions can help sustain or even re-intensify a TC. The ability to forecast post-landfall TC evolution and mitigate the associated socio-economic impact thus hinges on accurate knowledge of land surface conditions prior to landfall. The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission provides accurate observations of soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has been shown that the assimilation of SMAPbrightness temperatures (Tb) significantly improves modeled land surface states and thus has the potential to constrain land surface initial conditions in TC forecasts. In this presentation, we investigate this potential through an extensive set of Observing System Experiments that systematically assess the impact of assimilating SMAP Tbs on TC forecast skill in the Goddard Earth Observing System. Focusing on the case of TC Idai, we show that the assimilation of SMAP generally leads to a drier soil moisture analysis for the land surface underneath much of the storm’s circulation. An exception is the direct TC track, where SMAP assimilation increases soil moisture. These changes are reflected in the surface fluxes, which propagate the land surface state changes to the atmosphere. This results a TC that is overall weaker with lower winds, but with a better-defined eye and a slightly smaller track error than a simulation without SMAP DA. The changes in soil moisture resulting from the assimilation of SMAP also impact the total precipitation amounts as well as the precipitation structure associated with TC Idai.
SMAP↗