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On the Emergence of Human Influence on Surface Air Temperature Changes Over India

Human activities in terms of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and aerosols resulting from the combustion of fossil fuels have been shown to have affected the temperature of the Earth on global and continental scales. The surface air temperature (TAS) over India has also been observed to be increasing over the last 100 years. Understanding the underlying causes of regional climate change over India can help in developing appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies. Differentiating signals of externally forced climate changes from the noise of natural internal variability generally becomes more difficult as spatial scale reduces. Therefore detecting and attributing the influence of external forcings such as GHGs and aerosols is harder at local and regional scales. In this study, we applied a detection and attribution (D&A) method to study annual and seasonal mean TAS over the Indian region. We found that the observed warming over India from 1906 to 2005 cannot be explained by natural climate variability alone. We found that the warming is largely driven by the increase in GHGs, and partially offset by regional anthropogenic emissions of aerosols. These results were confirmed for the shorter 1956–2005 period, but results were sensitive to the choice of observational data set. Furthermore, the changes cannot be explained by internal climate variability or natural external forcings alone, but are compatible with the responses to combined anthropogenic GHG and aerosol forcings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Dichotomy of Wet and Dry Trends Over India by Aerosol Indirect Effects in CMIP5 Models

Abstract Aerosol‐cloud interactions, also known as aerosol indirect effect (AIE), substantially impact rainfall frequency and intensity. Here, we analyze NEX‐GDDP, a multimodel ensemble of high‐resolution (0.25°) historical simulations and future projections statistically downscaled from 21 CMIP5 models, to quantify the importance of AIE on extreme climate indices, specifically consecutive dry days (CDD), consecutive wet days (CWD), and simple daily intensity index (SDII). The 21 NEX‐GDDP CMIP5 models are classified into models with reliable (REM) and unreliable (UREM) monsoon climate simulated over India based on their simulations of the climate indices. The REM group is further decomposed based on whether the models represent only the direct (REM ADE ) or the direct and indirect (REM ALL ) aerosol effects. Compared to REM ADE , including all aerosol effects significantly improves the model skills in simulating the observed historical trends of all three climate indices over India. Specifically, AIE enhances dry days and reduces wet days in India in the historical period, consistent with the observed changes. However, by the middle and end of the 21st century, there is a relative decrease in dry days and an increase in wet days and precipitation intensity. Moreover, the REM ALL simulated future CWD and CDD changes are mostly opposite to those in REM ADE , indicating the substantial role of AIE in the future projection of dry and wet climates. These findings underscore the crucial role of AIE in future projections of the Indian hydroclimate and motivate efforts to accurately represent AIE in climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Elimination of human rabies in Goa, India through an integrated One Health approach

Dog-mediated rabies kills tens of thousands of people each year in India, representing one third of the estimated global rabies burden. Whilst the World Health Organization (WHO), World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) have set a target for global dog-mediated human rabies elimination by 2030, examples of large-scale dog vaccination programs demonstrating elimination remain limited in Africa and Asia. We describe the development of a data-driven rabies elimination program from 2013 to 2019 in Goa State, India, culminating in human rabies elimination and a 92% reduction in monthly canine rabies cases. Smartphone technology enabled systematic spatial direction of remote teams to vaccinate over 95,000 dogs at 70% vaccination coverage, and rabies education teams to reach 150,000 children annually. An estimated 2249 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were averted over the program period at 526 USD per DALY, making the intervention ‘very cost-effective’ by WHO definitions. This One Health program demonstrates that human rabies elimination is achievable at the state level in India.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Evolution of Aerosol Research in India and the RAWEX–GVAX:An Overview

Climate change has great significance in Asia in general, and India in particular; and atmospheric aerosols have a decisive role in this. The climate forcing potential of aerosols is closely linked to their optical, microphysical and chemical properties. Systematic efforts to characterize these properties over the Indian region started about 5 decades ago, and evolved over the years through concerted efforts in the form of long-term scientific programmes as well as concerted fields experiments. All these have resulted in this activity becoming one of the most vibrant fields of climate research in India and have brought several important issues in the national and international foci. The field experiment, RAWEX-GVAX (Regional Aerosol Warming Experiment-Ganges Valley Aerosol Experiment), conducted during 2011-12 jointly by the US Department of Energy, Indian Space Research Organization and Department of Science and Technology, has emerged as a direct outcome of the above efforts. This overview provides a comprehensive account of the development of aerosol-climate research in India and south Asia, and the accomplishment and newer issues that warranted the above field campaign. Details of RAWEX-GVAX, the major outcomes and the subsequent and more recent efforts are presented, followed by the way forward in this field for the next several years to come.

Aerosols↗

Battery Electric Vehicles can reduce greenhouse has emissions and make renewable energy cheaper in India

India's National Mission on Electric Mobility (NMEM) sets a countrywide goal of deploying 6 to 7 million hybrid and electric vehicles (EVs) by 2020. There are widespread concerns, both within and outside the government, that the Indian grid is not equipped to accommodate additional power demand from battery electric vehicles (BEVs). Such concerns are justified on the grounds of India's notorious power sector problems pertaining to grid instability and chronic blackouts. Studies have claimed that deploying BEVs in India will only

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Review of Building Data Frameworks across Countries: Lessons for India

The report outlines the initial explorations carried out by LBNL on available examples of energy data collection frameworks for buildings. Specifically, this monograph deals with European experience in the buildings sector, the US experience in the commercial buildings sector, and examples of data collection effort in Singapore and China to capture the Asian experience in the commercial sector. The review also provides a summary of the past efforts in India to collect and use commercial building energy data and its strengths and weaknesses. The overall aim of this activity is to help understand the use cases that drive the granularity of data being collected and the range of methodologies adopted for the data collection effort. This review is a key input and reference for developing a data collection framework for India, and also clarifies general thinking on the institutional structure that may be amenable for data collection effort to match the needs and requirements of commercial building sector in India.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Establishing a Commercial Buildings Energy Data Framework for India: A Comprehensive Look at Data Collection Approaches, Use Cases and Institutions

Enhancing energy efficiency of the commercial building stock is an important aspect of any national energy policy. Understanding how buildings use energy is critical to formulating any new policy that may impact energy use, underscoring the importance of credible data. Data enables informed decision making and good quality data is essential for policy makers to prioritize energy saving strategies and track implementation. Given the uniqueness of the buildings sector and challenges to collecting relevant energy data, this study characterizes various elements involved in pertinent data collection and management, with the specific focus on well-defined data requirements, appropriate methodologies and processes, feasible data collection mechanisms, and approaches to institutionalizing the collection process. This report starts with a comprehensive review of available examples of energy data collection frameworks for buildings across different countries. The review covers the U.S. experience in the commercial buildings sector, the European experience in the buildings sector and other data collection initiatives in Singapore and China to capture the more systematic efforts in Asia in the commercial sector. To provide context, the review includes a summary and status of disparate efforts in India to collect and use commercial building energy data. Using this review as a key input, the study developed a data collection framework for India with specific consideration to relevant use cases. Continuing with the framework for data collection, this study outlines the key performance indicators applicable to the use cases and their collection feasibility, as well as immediate priorities of the participating stakeholders. It also discusses potential considerations for data collection and the possible approaches for survey design. With the specific purpose of laying out the possible ways to structure and organize data collection institutionally, the study collates existing mechanisms to analyze building energy performance in India and opportunities for standardizing data collection. This report describes the existing capacities and resources for establishing an institutional framework for data collection, the legislation and mandates that support such activity, and identifies roles and responsibilities of the relevant ministries and organizations. Finally, the study presents conclusions and identifies two major data collection strategies within the existing legal framework.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Greening the Grid: Pathways to Integrate 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India’s Electric Grid, Vol. I. National Study. Executive Summary

The use of renewable energy (RE) sources, primarily wind and solar generation, is poised to grow significantly within the Indian power system. The Government of India has established an installed capacity target of 175 gigawatts (GW) RE by 2022 that includes 60 GW of wind and 100 GW of solar, up from current capacities of 29 GW wind and 9 GW solar. India’s contribution to global efforts on climate mitigation extends this ambition to 40% non-fossil-based generation capacity by 2030. Global experience demonstrates that power systems can integrate wind and solar at this scale; however, evidence-based planning is important to achieve wind and solar integration at least cost. The purpose of this analysis is to evaluate the operation of India’s power grid with 175 GW of RE in order to identify potential cost and operational concerns and actions needed to efficiently integrate this level of wind and solar generation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Technical and Economic Aspects of Designing an Efficient Room Air-Conditioner Program in India

Several studies have projected a massive increase in the demand for air conditioners (ACs) over the next two decades in India. By 2030, room ACs could add 140 GW to the peak load, equivalent to over 30% of the total projected peak load. Therefore, there is significant interest among policymakers, regulators, and utilities in managing room AC demand by enhancing energy efficiency. Building on the historical success of the Indian Bureau of Energy Efficiency’s star-labeling program, Energy Efficiency Services Limited recently announced a program to accelerate the sale of efficient room ACs using bulk procurement, similar to their successful UJALA light-emitting diode (LED) bulk procurement program. This report discusses some of the key considerations in designing a bulk procurement or financial incentive program for enhancing room AC efficiency in India. We draw upon our previous research to demonstrate the overall technical potential and price impact of room AC efficiency improvement and its technical feasibility in India. We also discuss the importance of using low global warming potential (GWP) refrigerants and smart AC equipment that is demand response (DR) ready.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Improving fuel efficiency for heavy-duty vehicles of 3.5–12 tonnes in India: Benefits, costs, and environmental impacts

This report examines how deploying fuel-saving technologies for new heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) with gross vehicle weights (GVWs) of 3.5 to 12 tonnes in India could reduce petroleum consumption and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Such HDVs play a vital role in India’s economic growth, but they also consume substantial fuel and produce major environmental impacts. Analyzing the efficiency improvement potential for this category of vehicles helps clarify the potential impacts of fuel efficiency and emission standards for all HDVs in India, the home of 18 of the world’s 100 worst pollution-affected cities (WHO, 2018). This report builds on a previous analysis of Indian heavy-duty vehicles over 12 tonnes.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Quantitative assessment of AOD from 17 CMIP5 models based on satellite-derived AOD over India

Aerosol optical depth (AOD) values from 17 CMIP5 models are compared with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) derived AODs over India. The objective is to identify the cases of successful AOD simulation by CMIP5 models, considering satellite-derived AOD as a benchmark. Six years of AOD data (2000–2005) from MISR and MODIS are processed to create quality-assured gridded AOD maps over India, which are compared with corresponding maps of 17 CMIP5 models at the same grid resolution. Intercomparison of model and satellite data shows that model-AOD is better correlated with MISR-derived AOD than MODIS. The correlation between model-AOD and MISR-AOD is used to segregate the models into three categories identifying their performance in simulating the AOD over India. Maps of correlation between model-AOD and MISR-/MODIS-AOD are generated to provide quantitative information about the intercomparison. The two sets of data are examined for different seasons and years to examine the seasonal and interannual variation in the correlation coefficients. In conclusion, latitudinal and longitudinal variations in AOD as simulated by models are also examined and compared with corresponding variations observed by satellites.

(aerosols and particles)↗

NASA/DOD Aerospace Knowledge Diffusion Research Project. Report 18: A comparison of the technical communication practices of aerospace engineers and scientists in India and the United States

As part of Phase 4 of the NASA/DoD Aerospace Knowledge Diffusion Research Project, two studies were conducted that investigated the technical communications practices of India and U.S. aerospace engineers and scientists. Both studies have the same seven objectives: first, to solicit the opinions of aerospace engineers and scientists regarding the importance of technical communications to their profession; second, to determine the use and production of technical communications by aerospace engineers and scientists; third, to seek their views about the appropriate content of an undergraduate course in technical communications; fourth, to determine aerospace engineers' and scientists' use of libraries, technical information centers, and on-line data bases; fifth, to determine the use and importance of computer and information technology to them; sixth, to determine their use of electronic networks; and seventh, to determine their use of foreign and domestically produced technical reports. A self-administered questionnaire was distributed to aerospace engineers and scientists at the Indian Institute of Science and the NASA Langley Research Center. The completion rates for the India and U.S. surveys were 48 and 53 percent, respectively. Responses of the India and U.S. participants to selected questions are presented in this report.

Pinelli, Thomas E.↗

Evaluation of Sentinel-1A Data For Above Ground Biomass Estimation in Different Forests in India

Use of remote sensing data for mapping and monitoring of forest biomass across large spatial scales can aid in addressing uncertainties in carbon cycle. Earlier, several researchers reported on the use of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data for characterizing forest structural parameters and the above ground biomass estimation. However, these studies cannot be generalized and the algorithms cannot be applied to all types of forests without additional information on the forest physiognomy, stand structure and biomass characteristics. The radar backscatter signal also saturates as forest parameters such as biomass and the tree height increase. It is also not clear how different polarizations (VV versus VH) impact the backscatter retrievals in different forested regions. Thus, it is important to evaluate the potential of SAR data in different landscapes for characterizing forest structural parameters. In this study, the SAR data from Sentinel-1A has been used to characterize forest structural parameters including the above ground biomass from tropical forests of India. Ground based data on tree density, basal area and above ground biomass data from thirty-eight different forested sites has been collected to relate to SAR data. After the pre-processing of Sentinel 1-A data for radiometric calibration, geo-correction, terrain correction and speckle filtering, the variability in the backscatter signal in relation tree density, basal area and above biomass density has been investigated. Results from the curve fitting approach suggested exponential model between the Sentinel-1A backscatter versus tree density and above ground biomass whereas the relationship was almost linear with the basal area in the VV polarization mode. Of the different parameters, tree density could explain most of the variations in backscatter. Both VV and VH backscatter signals could explain only thirty and thirty three percent of variation in above biomass in different forest sites of India. Results also suggested saturation of the Sentinel-1A backscatter signal around hundred tonnes per hectare for VV polarization and one hundred and forty five tonnes per hectare for VH polarization. The presentation will highlight the above results in addition to potentials and limitations of Sentinel-1A data for retrieving forest structural parameters. Also, background information on different forest types of India, biomass variations and forest type mapping efforts in the region will be presented.

Data↗

Solar Energy Research Institute for India and the United States (SERIIUS): Lessons and Results from a Binational Consortium

This book describes the development, functioning, and results of a successful binational program to promote significant scientific advances in Earth-abundant photovoltaics (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP), advanced process/manufacturing technologies, multiscale modeling and reliability testing, and analysis of integrated solar energy systems. SERIIUS is a consortium between India and the United States dedicated to developing new solar technologies and assessing their potential impact in the two countries. The consortium consists of nearly 50 institutions including academia, national laboratories, and industry, with the goal of developing significant new technologies in all areas of solar deployment. In addition, the program focused on workforce development through graduate students, post-doctoral students, and an international exchange program. Particular emphasis was placed on the following efforts: creating disruptive technologies in PV and CSP through high-impact fundamental and applied research and development (R&D); identifying and quantifying the critical technical, economic, and policy issues for solar energy development and deployment in India; overcoming barriers to technology transfer by teaming research institutions and industry in an effective project structure; building a new platform for binational collaboration using a formalized R&D project structure, along with effective management, coordination, and decision processes; creating a sustainable network and workforce development program from which to build large collaborations and fostering a collaborative culture and outreach programs. This includes using existing and new methodologies for collaboration based on advanced electronic and web-based communication to facilitate functional international teams. The book summarizes the general lessons learned from these experiences.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Climate and air pollution implications of potential energy infrastructure and policy measures in India

India is a rapidly developing economy with interrelated air quality, sustainable development, and climate change mitigation goals. There are unique challenges to achieving each of these goals as well as potential tradeoffs among them. This study examines the implications of possible future energy, climate, and air pollution control policies and measures in India through 2050. We take a scenario approach using the GCAM global energy-climate-land model combined with the Hector simple climate model and the TM5-FASST air quality source-receptor model to examine energy, climate and air quality outcomes. Reducing use of traditional biomass in buildings can reduce primary carbonaceous particulate emissions well below 2015 levels. However, policies that are more ambitious than current plans would likely be required to reduce SO 2 and NO x emissions well below 2015 levels. Among single policy cases considered, pricing of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and expansion of natural gas infrastructure have the largest impacts on overall energy system changes relative to the reference scenario. Ambitious air pollution control and GHG policies lead to the largest reductions in air pollution concentrations and radiative forcing, respectively. However, ambitious air pollution control and GHG policies differ in the extent to which they support or impede other policy objectives. Forcing increases due to reduced aerosols from ambitious air pollution policies can be mitigated, at least in part, by applying air pollution control and GHG policies together.

India↗

Exposures to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and birthweight in a rural-urban, mother-child cohort in Tamil Nadu, India

Highlights: • Provides E-R relationships between PM{sub 2.5} and birth-weight in high exposure settings. • Examines the association in a rural-urban, mother-child cohort in India. • Estimates a 4g decrease in birth-weight per 10-μg/m{sup 3} increase in PM{sub 2.5} exposures. • Estimates a 2% increase in low birth-weight per 10-μg/m{sup 3} increase in PM{sub 2.5} exposures. • Maternal PM{sub 2.5} exposures may be an important risk factor for low birth-weight in India. Exposure to PM{sub 2.5} (fine particulate matter <less than 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter) related to ambient and household air pollution has been associated with low birthweight. Few of these studies, however, have been conducted in high exposure settings that are commonly encountered in low and middle income countries (LMICs).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Physical property characteristics of gas hydrate-bearing reservoir and associated seal sediments collected during NGHP-02 in the Krishna-Godavari Basin, in the offshore of India

India’s National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02 (NGHP-02) was conducted to better understand geologic controls on gas hydrate occurrence and morphology, targeting coarse-grained sediments along the lower continental slope offshore eastern India. This study combines seismic, logging-while-drilling data, and a petroleum system approach to provide a regional geologic and lithologic context for: 1) gas hydrate morphology and distribution, and 2) effects of fine-grained sediments (clays and other grains smaller than 63µm) on gas production in NGHP-02 Area B in the Krishna-Godavari Basin. Area B seismic data show a buried anticline/syncline structure with strong reflectors, R1 and R2, that delineate two of the five lithologic units: Unit I (shallowest), II (R1), III, IV (R2) and V (below the bas of gas hydrate stability). Throughout Area B, gas hydrate morphology depends on its placement within these units. Specifically, core- and grain-scale measurements indicate fines content exerts a primary control on the gas hydrate distribution and morphology. Units I, II and III are generally fine-grained. On the anticline crest, these units host primarily grain-displacing gas hydrate veins linked to pore-occupying gas hydrate in thin, localized, coarser-grained deposits. Diatoms in Unit III increase porosity with depth, reaching ~70% where it contacts Unit IV, the gas hydrate reservoir associated with reflector R2. The Unit III lithology and porosity allow fluid and dissolved-phase methane to escape Unit IV and form gas hydrate in the fine-grained overburden. Within Unit IV, fine-grained layers are interbedded with coarser-grained gas hydrate reservoir sands, and the fines content even in the sands is high enough to impact hydraulic and mechanical properties during gas production. Fluid motion during gas production can mobilize fines, which can then clog pore throats, limiting production rates. In conclusion, pore-water freshening during gas hydrate dissociation can increase fines mobilization, particularly given the smectite identified in the fine-grained interbeds.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Two decades of aerosol trends over India: seasonal characteristics and urban-rural dynamics

Abstract India faces significant air quality challenges, with one of the highest air pollution levels of any country in the world. Here, we examine two decades (2001–2019) of both particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) concentration and aerosol optical depth (AOD) over the country. Increases are seen between the two decadal averages, for 2001–2010 and 2011–2019, in western India, particularly in the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP). IGP region, including Bihar, West Bengal, Jharkhand, and Uttar Pradesh, shows the highest increases in AOD (+0.03, 13%) and PM 2.5, s (+8 µ g m −3 ). Seasonal AOD patterns fluctuate, with the IGP experiencing the highest wintertime increase, especially in Bihar (+0.07). In summer, there are increases in AOD along the southern and eastern coastal areas. Monsoons cause a slight rise in AOD, except in Rajasthan. In the post-monsoon season, the IGP experiences a notable increase in AOD (+0.057, 25%), potentially driven by biomass burning in Bihar (+0.11) and Uttar Pradesh (+0.075). Dividing our study area into urban and peri-urban clusters ( n = 2791), AOD is found to be similar, possibly due to advective mixing. However, the differences between urban and rural areas become more noticeable, especially in the second decade. Correlations between AOD and PM 2.5, g vary across locations, with the highest found in Kanpur ( R 2 = 0.61) and weaker in Delhi ( R 2 = 0.42), highlighting the need for more ground monitoring. However, it suggests that satellite-derived AOD can generally be used to examine trends in PM 2.5 over longer time frames.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗