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This is a slide presentation I was invited to give on the Factors in Main Control Room Modernization Decision-Making.
Carbonate clumped isotope thermometry has been applied to fossil mollusk shells from Tibet to reconstruct the paleoclimate and paleoelevation of the region. However, inferred paleoelevation and climatic conditions from this proxy are inconsistent with paleontological evidence. Here, we report new clumped isotope data from both modern and fossil (5–4 Ma) freshwater mollusk shells with the results of X-ray diffraction (XRD) analyses of fossil shells from the Himalayan-Tibetan Plateau. Although all of the fossil shells analyzed in this study appeared pristine based on visual inspection, XRD data reveal that more than half of these apparently “pristine” fossil shells contain trace amounts of calcite. Clumped isotope temperatures derived from the fossil shells display a large range of variation (>22 °C). Among the fossil shells analyzed, those containing traces of calcite have yielded temperatures that are on average ~10 °C lower than those with no detectable calcite from the same strata. These observations suggest that clumped isotope alteration can occur in aragonite shells in low-temperature environments and even in shells with no visible signs of alteration that contain only traces of calcite. The temperatures derived from fossil shells with no detectable calcite are on average 4 °C higher than those derived from modern shells, indicating that southwest Tibet was warmer 4–5 Ma than today. After accounting for temperature change due to global cooling, the difference in clumped isotope temperatures between pristine fossil shells and modern shells suggests that the paleoelevation of the southwestern Tibetan Plateau in the Pliocene was similar to its present-day elevation.
Modern conceptual models of soil organic carbon (SOC) cycling place a strong focus on the microbe-mineral interactions that regulate C stabilization. However, the formation of ‘stable’ soil organic matter, which consists mainly of microbial residues bonded to mineral surfaces, is inextricably linked to C loss through microbial respiration. Therefore, what is the net impact of microbial metabolism on the total quantity of C held in the soil? To address this question, we constructed artificial root-soil systems to identify controls on C cycling across the plant-microbe-mineral continuum, simultaneously quantifying the formation of persistent mineral-associated C and C losses to respiration. Roots and minerals interacted to regulate these processes: while roots stimulated respiratory C losses and depleted mineral-associated C pools in low-activity clays, roots triggered formation of stable C in high-activity clays. Moreover, we observed a strong positive correlation between the formation of mineral-associated C and respiration. This suggests that the growth of persistent C pools which can resist subsequent disturbance comes at the expense of C loss from the system.
This report documents activities performed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) during Fiscal Year (FY) 2023 for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, Risk Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway, digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) risk assessment project. In FY 2019, the RISA Pathway initiated a project to develop a risk assessment strategy for delivering a technical basis to support effective, and secure DI&C technologies for digital upgrades/designs. A risk assessment-informed framework was proposed for this strategy, which aims to (1) provide a best-estimate, risk informed capability to quantitatively estimate the safety margin obtained from plant modernization, especially for safety-related DI&C systems, (2) support and supplement existing risk informed DI&C design guides by providing quantitative risk information and evidence, (3) offer a capability of design architecture evaluation of various DI&C systems, (4) assure the long-term safety and reliability of safety-related DI&C systems, and (5) reduce uncertainty in costs and support integration of DI&C systems in the plant. To achieve these technical goals, the LWRS-developed framework provides a means to address relevant technical issues by: (1) defining a risk informed analysis process for DI&C upgrade that integrates hazard analysis, reliability analysis, and consequence analysis, (2) applying risk informed tools to address common cause failures (CCFs) and quantify corresponding failure probabilities for DI&C technologies, particularly software CCFs, (3) evaluating the impact of digital failures at the component level, system level, and plant level, and (4) providing insights and suggestions on designs to manage the risks, thus to support the development and deployment of advanced DI&C technologies in nuclear power plants (NPPs). Adding diversity within a system or components is the primary means to eliminate and mitigate CCFs, but diversity also increases system complexity and may not address all sources of systematic failures. Optimization of diversity and redundancy applications for the safety-critical DI&C systems remains a challenge. To deal with the technical issues in addressing potential software CCFs in safety-related DI&C systems of NPPs and supporting relevant design optimization, the proposed framework provides: (a) A best-estimate, risk informed capability to address new technical digital issues quantitatively, focusing on software CCFs in safety-related DI&C systems of NPPs; (b) A common and a modularized platform for DI&C designers, software developers, cybersecurity analysts, and plant engineers to predict and prevent risk in the early design stage of DI&C systems; (c) Technical bases and risk informed insights to assist users address the risk informed alternatives for evaluation of CCFs in safety-related DI&C systems of NPPs; and (d) A risk informed tool that offers a capability of design architecture evaluation of various DI&C systems to support system design decisions in diversity and redundancy applications. The research and development efforts of this project in FY 2023 are focused on refining current methods on software CCF modeling and estimation and exploring additional innovative approaches to risk assessment of DI&C systems to enable a more comprehensive and complete assessment of various safety-related DI&C design architectures. The primary audience of this report are DI&C designers, engineers, and probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) practitioners. This includes stakeholders, such as the nuclear utilities and regulators who consider the deployment and upgrade of DI&C systems, DI&C software developers and reviewers, and cybersecurity specialists. It should be noted that all the analyses are performed for the demonstration of the methodology, not for the evaluation of an actual digital control system. Results are obtained based on limited design information and testing data.
Stromatolites offer an unparalleled geologic record of early life, because they constitute the oldest and most abundant recognizable remains of microbial ecosystems. Microbial mats are living homologs of stromatolites; thus, the physiology of the microbiota as well as the processes which create those features of mats (e.g., biomarker organic compounds, elemental and stable isotopic compositions) which are preserved in the ancient record. Observations of the carbon isotopic composition (delta C-13) of stromatolites and microbial mats were made and are consistent with the hypothesis that atmospheric CO2 concentrations have declined by at least one to two orders of magnitude during the past 2.5 Ga. Whereas delta C-13 values of carbonate carbon average about 0 permil during both the early and mid-Proterozoic, the delta C-13 values of stromatolitic organic matter increase from an average of -35 between 2.0 and 2.6 Ga ago to an average of about -28 about 1.0 Ga ago. Modern microbial mats in hypersaline environments have delta C-13 values typically in the range of -5 to -9, relative to an inorganic bicarbonate source at 0 permil. Both microbial mats and pur cultures of cyanobacteria grown in waters in near equilibrium with current atmospheric CO2 levels exhibit minimal discrimination against C-13. In contrast, hot spring cyanobacterial mats or cyanobacterial cultures grown under higher CO2 levels exhibit substantially greater discrimination. If care is taken to compare modern mats with stromatolites from comparable environments, it might be possible to estimate ancient levels of atmospheric CO2. In modern microbial mats, a tight coupling exists between photosynthetic organic carbon production and subsequent carbon oxidation, mostly by sulfate reduction. The rate of one process fuels a high rate of the other, with much of the sulfate reduction occurring within the same depth interval as oxygenic photosynthesis. Other aspects of this study are presented.
Neptunium oxalate (Np(C 2 O 4 ) 2 ·6H 2 O) is a historically relevant solid phase used in nuclear processing as a precursor for neptunium dioxide (NpO 2 ). Although Np oxalate has been synthesized and used for NpO 2 production for decades, the thermal decomposition mechanism of this phase remains poorly understood and has not been evaluated in over 30 years. Conflicting reports in historical literature suggest either a direct conversion from anhydrous oxalate to NpO 2 or a decomposition that includes the formation of Np carbonate or oxidized Np intermediate phases. In this work, we reexamine the decomposition pathway of Np(C 2 O 4 ) 2 ·6H 2 O using thermal analysis coupled with evolved gas analysis and temperature-dependent Raman spectroscopy to elucidate decomposition mechanisms and intermediate phases using modern analytical techniques. Thermal analysis revealed a three-stage decomposition process, including dehydration below 200 °C, oxalate breakdown between 170 and 370 °C, and NpO 2 formation by 500 °C. However, an unidentified plateau in the thermal data was observed during measurements. Raman spectroscopy confirmed the stages of decomposition, and in the analysis of potential intermediate phases, no carbonate phases or Np 2 O 5 were identified. Raman data suggest that residual oxalate or nonstoichiometric oxide are present during decomposition before pure NpO 2 is formed. These findings clarify aspects of the Np oxalate decomposition mechanism and address longstanding discrepancies in the literature, with a specific focus on Np-specific materials chemistry.
Efficiently simulating solid mechanics is vital across various engineering applications. As constitutive models grow more complex and simulations scale up in size, harnessing the capabilities of modern computer architectures has become essential for achieving timely results. This paper presents advancements in running parallel simulations of solid mechanics on multi-core CPUs and GPUs using a single-code implementation. This portability is made possible by the C++ matrix and array (MATAR) library, which interfaces with the C++ Kokkos library, enabling the selection of fine-grained parallelism backends (e.g., CUDA, HIP, OpenMP, pthreads, etc.) at compile time. MATAR simplifies the transition from Fortran to C++ and Kokkos, making it easier to modernize legacy solid mechanics codes. We applied this approach to modernize a suite of constitutive models and to demonstrate substantial performance improvements across different computer architectures. This paper includes comparative performance studies using multi-core CPUs along with AMD and NVIDIA GPUs. Results are presented using a hypoelastic–plastic model, a crystal plasticity model, and the viscoplastic self-consistent generalized material model (VPSC-GMM). The results underscore the potential of using the MATAR library and modern computer architectures to accelerate solid mechanics simulations.
Slides for 2021 ANS-NPIC-HMIT conference
The current study is an application of CFD to a 'real' design and analysis environment. A subsonic, three-dimensional parabolized Navier-Stokes (PNS) code is used to construct stall margin design charts for optimum-length advanced exhaust systems' circular-to-rectangular transition ducts. Computer code validation has been conducted to examine the capability of wall static pressure predictions. The comparison of measured and computed wall static pressures indicates a reasonable accuracy of the PNS computer code results. Computations have also been conducted on 15 transition ducts, three area ratios, and five aspect ratios. The three area ratios investigated are constant area ratio of unity, moderate contracting area ratio of 0.8, and highly contracting area ratio of 0.5. The degree of mean flow acceleration is identified as a dominant parameter in establishing the minimum duct length requirement. The effect of increasing aspect ratio in the minimum length transition duct is to increase the length requirement, as well as to increase the mass-averaged total pressure losses. The design guidelines constructed from this investigation may aid in the design and manufacture of advanced exhaust systems for modern fighter aircraft.
Geophysical maps depicting continental movement have consistently shown India, as it moved northward, to be located far out in the Tethys Sea. India split off from the African east coast about 148 m.y.a. From that time onward, according to almost all geophysical accounts, India was isolated from all of other continents until the early Miocene when it made contact with Eurasia. But the biological data, both fossil and Recent, indicate that this concept cannot be correct. If India had really existed as an isolated, oceanic continent for about 100 m.y., it should have developed a peculiar biota with many endemic genera and families in its terrestrial and shallow marine habitats. But there are virtually no remains of organisms indicating that India was isolated for any substantial time (millions of years). Instead, we find that almost all Indian taxa were possessed in common with other continents. As time went on, the northern relationships became stronger and the southern ones weaker. Most of the recent geophysical accounts show India not making contact with Eurasia until the early Miocene, but fossil materials show that this event must have taken place by the early Eocene. It has been postulated that, as India moved northward, it created a biogeographic barrier that separated marine fish populations and resulted in the east-west provinces that are now apparent in the Indian Ocean. At the same time, the barrier effect was supposed to have resulted in the formation of sister species that are now located far apart. Information currently available indicates that most living, tropical marine species are probably not over 3 m.y. old. Consequently, the northward movement of India, which took place primarily between 148 and 50 m.y.a., could have no bearing on the relationships of modern species.
In its December 1990 fly-by of Earth, the Galileo spacecraft found evidence of abundant gaseous oxygen, a widely distributed surface pigment with a sharp absorption edge in the red part of the visible spectrum, and atmospheric methane in extreme thermodynamic disequilibrium; together, these are strongly suggestive of life on Earth. Moreover, the presence of narrow-band, pulsed, amplitude-modulated radio transmission seems uniquely attributable to intelligence. These observations constitute a control experiment for the serach for extraterrestrial life by modern interplanetary spacecraft.
Based on cosmological rates, it is probable that at least once in the last Gy the Earth has been irradiated by a gamma-ray burst in our Galaxy from within 2 kpc. Using a two-dimensional atmospheric model we have computed the effects upon the Earth's atmosphere of one such burst. A ten second burst delivering 100 kJ/sq m to the Earth results in globally averaged ozone depletion of 35%, with depletion reaching 55% at some latitudes. Significant global depletion persists for over 5 years after the burst. This depletion would have dramatic implications for life since a 50% decrease in ozone column density results in approximately three times the normal UVB flux. Widespread extinctions are likely, based on extrapolation from UVB sensitivity of modern organisms.
Nearly all proglacial water discharge from the present-day Greenland Ice Sheet is routed englacially via moulins. Identification of these moulins in high-resolution imagery is a frequent topic of study, but the processes controlling how and where moulins form, including on past ice sheets for which remote-sensing data are not available, remain poorly understood. Because moulins may reasonably compose approximately 10-15% of the englacial-subglacial hydrologic system, the evolution and shape of moulins can alter the timing of meltwater inputs to the bed. This evolution can impact both the form of the subglacial hydrologic system and the structure of associated geomorphological structures. Here, we develop a physical model of moulin formation and evolution to constrain the role of englacial processes in controlling the form and structure of the subglacial hydrologic system. Ice deformation within and around a moulin is both viscous and elastic, with the rate of turbulent and heat dissipation from water circulation in the moulin controlling both moulin wall melting and warming of the surrounding ice. We find moulin geometry is responsive to changes in these parameters over hours to days, indicating that diurnal and multi-day variations in surface melt can substantially alter the geometry of a moulin and the pressure-discharge relationship at the bed of the ice sheet. These results should be considered carefully when determining surface water inputs for subglacial hydrologic models. In the future, a parameter space study of these results will be combined with an analytic model to create a predictive, stochastic model of moulin and crevasse locations. This future model will be applicable to constraining the potential for surface-to-bed connections in regions where the exact ice-sheet surface morphology is not known, including ice sheets under future warming atmospheric conditions, and paleo ice sheets, where moulins created modern landforms.
The state of the art for many Earth-to-orbit trajectory analysis toolsets used at NASA is somewhat dated in terms of the languages they are written in and their user interfaces. Many of these programs are written in languages like Fortran or C that are no longer considered modern in the technology industry, and are command-line based without any means of interpreting the data outputs. This presentation is meant to demonstrate a specific use case for a newly developed web app that visualizes the output data for one of these tools. Specifically, one key usage is to investigate and validate launches for notional multi-stage vehicle concepts to various non-standard high-inclination orbits. Some NASA requirements dictate that trajectories be designed such that no surviving debris lands closer than 200 nautical miles (nm) from foreign landmasses or 27 nm from the continental United States, therefore validating re-entry locations of spent stages is an integral part of the launch planning process. In addition, at programmatic levels it can prove insightful and clarifying for the decision-making process to enhance the technical results of numerical simulations with visualizations. The intent with this tool is to provide the mission analyst and program level management with an intuitive and clear grasp of key information on possible mission scenarios either departing from or arriving at Earth, and in the future, the moon or Mars as well. The software tool was developed with an agile development approach and utilizes the latest frameworks and technologies. The front end uses the React JavaScript library for making a state of the art frontend and a backend based on the Django Python framework for handling data using Python’s powerful and free scientific libraries. In addition, the CesiumJS open-source library is key for visualizing these end-to-end trajectories on a high-resolution Earth model. The presentation will demonstrate the current capability and tested use cases.
Several properties of the A/C index of polar cap variations introduced by L. Svalgaard in 1972 have been found to vary with time. In the presatellite era, C days, as measured by the Ap index, are almost twice as geomagnetically active as A days, while in the modern epoch they have essentially identical activity. Prior to 1962 there were over 40% more A days than C days per year, while during the modern epoch there are essentially equal numbers of A days and C days. In view of this strong bias to assigning a 'toward' classification on geomagnetically active days it is recommended that the Svalgaard A/C classification not be used in studies of geomagnetic activity. It is also recommended that a full and thorough documentation of the index be prepared and/or that others undertake to compile such a classification separately.
Abstract Water temperature is a critical ecological indicator; however, few studies have statistically modeled century‐scale trends in riverine or estuarine water temperature, or their cause. Here, we recover, digitize, and analyze archival temperature measurements from the 1850s onward to investigate how and why water temperatures in the lower Columbia River are changing. To infill data gaps and explore changes, we develop regression models of daily historical Columbia River water temperature using time‐lagged river flow and air temperature as the independent variables. Models were developed for three time periods (mid‐19th, mid‐20th, and early 21st century), using archival and modern measurements (1854–1876; 1938–present). Daily and monthly averaged root‐mean‐square errors overall are 0.89°C and 0.77°C, respectively for the 1938–2018 period. Results suggest that annual averaged water temperature increased by 2.2°C ± 0.2°C since the 1850s, a rate of 1.3°C ± 0.1°C/century. Increased water temperatures are seasonally dependent. An increase of approximately 2.0°C ± 0.2°C/century occurs in the July–Dec time‐frame, while springtime trends are statistically insignificant. Rising temperatures change the probability of exceeding ecologically important thresholds; since the 1850s, the number of days with water temperatures over 20°C increased from ~5 to 60 per year, while the number below 2°C decreased from ~10 to 0 days/per year. Overall, the modern system is warmer, but exhibits less temperature variability. The reservoir system reduces sensitivity to short‐term atmospheric forcing. Statistical experiments within our modeling framework suggest that increased water temperature is driven by warming air temperatures (~29%), altered river flow (~14%), and water resources management (~57%).
Stromatolites, layered sedimentary rock structures produced by communities of microorganisms, constitute the most abundant early evidence of life on Earth. Microbial mats, which are found most frequently in hypersaline marine or hot spring environments, serve as useful modern analogs of stromatolitic communities. Biochemical studies of mats were conducted to assist in the interpretations of stromatolites. The data suggest that salinity effects are insufficient by themselves to cause the C-13 differences observed betwwen Precambrain stromatolites and modern microbial mats.
Graphite has been used in large volumes as a structural material and neutron moderator since the earliest days of nuclear fission. However, no international consensus exists on the disposal of irradiated graphite, leaving much of the historic radioactive graphite inventory in interim vault or silo storage. With several new graphite-moderated reactors planned or under construction, the issue of graphite waste management is becoming increasingly urgent. This paper reviews and quantifies impurities in both historic and modern nuclear graphite, with emphasis on nitrogen—responsible for much of the 14 C inventory—and chlorine, which plays a critical role in repository performance and design. Modern graphites, benefitting from stringent quality-control measures developed for non-nuclear industries, meet or exceed the ASTM Ultra-High Purity nuclear standards, even without halide purification. Both chlorine and nitrogen concentrations have declined over time. For chlorine, identified as a key impurity influencing U.S. waste repository design, we propose a target of 0.1 appm in as-fabricated billets as a reasonable benchmark. Nitrogen sources are traced throughout the graphite production process, with surface and bulk concentrations characterized for all materials studied. Modern graphites commonly exhibit nitrogen levels below 5 appm, with values approaching 1 appm achievable. Using such reduced-nitrogen grades is critical to keeping graphite-induced radioactivity below the greater-than-Class-C waste threshold, thereby avoiding disposal cost penalties of nearly an order of magnitude.