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Hydropower Capacity Factor Trends & Analytics for the United States

This data repository contains all code, input data, and data generated for Turner et al. (2024)—“Hydropower capacity factors trending down in the United States”. File descriptions: – hydro-cf-trends-inputs.zip: Full set of input data used in this study, organized for direct entry into “/data” directory of hydro-cf-trends data processing pipeline. – hydro-cf-trends.zip: Full data processing pipeline, coded using the R {targets} framework. This is a snapshot release (v1.0) of the code repository stored at https://code.ornl.gov/turnersw/hydro-cf-trends/. – hydro-cf-trends-results.zip: Provides all dam level results required to reproduce results and graphics in Turner et al. (2024). Dams are identified by the “complxID” (root of the hydropower plant ID in the Existing Hydropower Assets Database, inherited from HILARRI). Results include: • dam_CF_trends.csv: Table of long-term trends in annualized capacity factors for 610 dams and modeled annualized capacity factors for 362 modeled dams (naturalized and assimilated flows). • dam_annualized_CF_gen.csv: Annualized time series of the following variables for each of 610 hydropower dams with nameplate > 5MW – Reported nameplate capacity (MW) – Implied maximum annual generation (MWh) – Reported net generation (MWh) – Computed annual capacity factor – Modeled annual capacity factor (362 modeled plants only)

13 HYDRO ENERGY

Landslide Susceptibility and Runout Assessment for the Arun Hydropower Cascade in Nepal Based on Multitemporal Landslide Inventory Developed Using Planet Imagery

The transboundary Pumqu/Arun River basin spreads across Nepal and Tibet. Nearly 95% of the basin lies in Tibet through which the Pumqu River flows forming the Arun River once it enters Nepal. The Arun River valley has about 3,163 MW in five large hydropower projects undergoing construction or planned for the future. Rainfall and earthquake-induced landslides, landslide dammed lakes and landslide-induced glacial lake outburst floods pose major risks to smooth operation of these projects. To safeguard upcoming hydropower projects, areas susceptible to landslides in the Arun River valley must be identified. We generated a multitemporal landslide inventory (2010-2020), modeled landslide susceptibility and runouts around the hydropower sites using Earth Observation (EO) techniques. We used high-resolution satellite imagery from Planet and open-source tool to establish a detailed and comprehensive multitemporal landslide inventory for the basin. The rigorous quality-controlled inventory represents yearly record of landslides from 2010 to 2020. To our knowledge this is one of the most comprehensive landslide inventories for the basin with yearly records of landslides.A data-driven approach was used to map areas susceptible to landslides within the Pumqu/Arun River basin. The multitemporal landslide inventory combined with other readily available EO-based variables were used to create a landslide susceptibility map. The highly susceptible areas delineated from the map was further used to characterize runouts near the hydropower sites. The susceptibility and runout analysis provide a valuable initial estimate of where landslides are likely to trigger and where the mobilized material is likely to end up.

Pukar Amatya

Energy 101: Hydropower [Slides]

The Energy 101: Hydropower presentation, developed for the Energy Technology Innovation Partnership Project (ETIPP), provides an overview of hydropower energy. It covers fundamental concepts, technologies, considerations, case studies, and additional resources.

13 HYDRO ENERGY

Comparison of juvenile white sturgeon blade strike survival through a conventional and a novel hydropower turbine

Hydropower is a globally important renewable energy source with profound impacts on aquatic organisms, including direct injury and mortality to fish that move through hydropower facilities. While it is expected that the characteristics of turbine design and operation influence the type, frequency, and magnitude of injuries suffered by entrained fish, few direct comparisons exist to illustrate differences in fish survival outcomes for conventional and novel turbine designs. This study evaluated blade strike-associated injury and mortality rates for juvenile white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) passed through a model-scale turbine equipped with a runner having conventional blade profiles (thin, straight leading edges) and the same turbine equipped with a runner designed for improved fish survival (thick, slanted leading edges). In both trials, head and turbine runner rotational speeds were matched to produce five blade peripheral speeds between 15.0 and 27.6 m/s. High-speed video was captured for all turbine passage events. Fish were assessed for injuries following passage, and mortalities were assessed immediately after passage and after 48 h. Conventional runner passage resulted in 42% to 78% survival after 48 h, with approximately one-third of all tested fish killed by severing. Under the same test conditions, immediate and 48 h survival rates through the novel runner were 100% except at the highest speed condition (95.6% survival at 48 h). These results clearly indicate that turbine design has a profound effect on fish survival, and suggest that thoughtful redesign of hydropower equipment could significantly ameliorate the risks of blade strike mortality.

13 HYDRO ENERGY

Optimal Complementarity Analysis of Potential Floating Solar Co-Located With Existing Hydropower Assets Across the Contiguous United States

The U.S. is expected to double its rate of renewable capacity from 2024 to 2030. However, the stochastic nature of renewable energy poses challenges to the operation and reliability of our power grid. The combined generation from renewable energy sources, with dispatchable sources (such as hydropower) operating as a hybrid energy plant, could mitigate this variability. In this paper, the complementarity analysis of selected U.S. reservoirs with existing hydropower assets (EHAs) and potential floating photovoltaics (FPVs) is conducted for the continuous U.S. (CONUS). The optimal FPV capacity for each site is determined by minimizing the variability of the combined output, while adhering to the FPV potential. Our results indicate that over 50% of the analyzed reservoirs achieve a stability coefficient exceeding 0.5, leading to a less-variable output after optimization. Finally, we analyze the complementary hydro-FPV hybrid reservoirs by considering both the Pearson correlation coefficient and the stability coefficient on daily, monthly, and yearly scales. Summaries are included of locations of theoretical FPVs co-located with hydropower plants that exhibit high complementarity based on the selected metrics.

13 - HYDRO ENERGY

Regional Power System Black Start with Run-of-river Hydropower Plant and Battery Energy Storage

Battery energy storage systems (BESSs) are an important asset for power systems with high integration levels of renewable energy, and they can be controlled to provide various critical services to the power grid. This paper presents the real-world experience of using a megawatt-scale BESS with grid-following (GFL) and grid-forming (GFM) controls and a run-of-river (ROR) hydropower plant to restore a regional power system. To demonstrate this, we carry out power-hardware-in-the-loop experiments integrating an actual GFL- or GFM-controlled BESS and a load bank. Both the simulation and experimental results presented in this paper show the different roles of GFL- or GFM-controlled BESS in power system black starts. The results provide further insight for system operators on how GFL- or GFM-controlled BESS can enhance grid stability and how an ROR hydropower plant can be converted into a black-start-capable unit with the support of a small-capacity BESS. The results show that an ROR hydropower plant combined with a BESS has the potential of becoming one of enabling elements to perform bottom-up black-start schemes as opposed to conventional bottom-down method, thus enhancing the system resiliency and robustness.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Demonstration of Power System Black Start with Hydropower Generator and Battery Energy Storage: Preprint

Battery energy storage systems (BESS) are an important asset for power systems with high integration levels of renewable energy, and they can be controlled to provide various services to the grid. This paper presents the hardware demonstration and characterization of using a utility-scale BESS with grid-following (GFL) and grid-forming (GFM) controls and a run-of-river (ROR) hydropower plant to perform a bottom-up power system black start that enhances power systems' resiliency. ROR hydropower plants are generally not used for power system restoration due to their frequency instability during islanded operation; however, BESS with droop control can provide critical damping to convert a ROR hydropower generator into a blackstart- capable unit. To demonstrate this, we carry out hardware experiments at the megawatt-scale integrating a synchronous generator driven by a dynamometer, an actual GFL/GFM BESS, a medium-voltage impedance network, and a load bank. The demonstration shows the different roles of BESS with GFL and GFM control in power system restoration. GFL BESS can suffer from high-frequency oscillations, even instability, depending on the droop control gain and loading condition. The results provide further insights for system operators on how GFL- or GFMcontrolled BESS can enhance grid stability and how hydro-BESS hybrids can operate as a black-start-capable unit. The presented experimental results are also a valuable resource to understand the different stability characteristics of real-world BESS with different control modes.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Degassing fluxes in a temperate hydropower reservoir predictable by deep‐water dissolved oxygen but highly sensitive to discharge variability

Hydropower reservoirs contribute to methane (CH 4 ) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions, like all aquatic ecosystems. Unique to hydropower reservoirs are degassing emissions that occur when deep-water intakes move water with high CH 4 and CO 2 concentrations through turbines, leading to the release of these gases. However, few studies from hydropower reservoirs have measured seasonal variability and drivers of degassing fluxes, especially in temperate systems. We measured monthly degassing emissions in temperate Douglas Reservoir (Tennessee, USA) from 2023 to 2024. We found that degassing fluxes were highest in the summertime, and deep-water CH 4 and CO 2 concentrations were predictable by deep-water dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations. Degassing emissions accounted for 37–62% of annually estimated CH 4 emissions, outweighing ebullitive emissions during summer months. We highlight the value of using DO data to estimate deep-water CH 4 and CO 2 concentrations and degassing fluxes at higher temporal resolution to improve annualization and extrapolation of reservoir degassing emissions at broader scales.

Pilla, Rachel M. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (O

The environmental impact of hydropower: a systematic review of the ecological effects of sub-daily flow variability on riverine fish

Hydropower can help facilitate power grid decarbonization because it can respond to short-term changes in power demand and is comparatively more reliable than intermittent wind and solar. However, flexible hydropower operations can create rapid and abnormal fluctuations in downstream flow conditions, which can negatively impact aquatic ecosystems. Accordingly, we conducted a systematic review on the ecological effects of hydropower-driven sub-daily flow variability (SDFV) on riverine fishes. We reviewed and synthesized 109 articles relevant to fish-SDFV relationships from seven sources, most of which focused on Salmonids in North America and northern and western Europe and were published in the last 15 years. We found strong agreement in the literature that SDFV increases fish stranding risk, destabilizes habitat, and decreases production and diversity. We found moderate agreement that SDFV interrupts fish reproduction, increases or has no impact on condition, and prompts or discourages movement depending on local channel conditions. We found little to no agreement for relationships between SDFV and mortality, physiology, and behavior. The effects of SDFV on riverine fish ecology are intertwined in the complex suite of biotic and abiotic characteristics that structure aquatic ecosystems and are highly site-, species-, and life stage-specific. Assessments of the impact of SDFV on fish ecology should first characterize local habitat and channel quality and fish community composition to identify specific, measurable ecological outcomes to sustain or enhance, and then design mitigation strategies tailored to those ecological objectives.

13 HYDRO ENERGY

Hydropower capacity factors trending down in the United States

Abstract The United States hydropower fleet has faced increasing environmental and regulatory pressures over the last half century, potentially constraining total generation. Here we show that annual capacity factor has declined at four fifths of United States hydropower plants since 1980, with two thirds of decreasing trends significant at p < 0.05. Results are based on an analysis of annual energy generation totals and nameplate capacities for 610 plants (>5 megawatt), representing 87% of total conventional hydropower capacity in the United States. On aggregate, changes in capacity factor imply a fleetwide, cumulative generation decrease of 23% since 1980 before factoring in capacity upgrades—akin to retiring a Hoover Dam once every two to three years. Changes in water availability explain energy decline in only 21% of plants, highlighting the importance of non-climatic drivers of generation, including deterioration of plant equipment as well as changes to dam operations in support of nonpower objectives.

13 HYDRO ENERGY

GODEEEP-hydro: Historical and projected power system ready hydropower data for the United States

Hydropower is a critical electricity resource in the United States which, in addition to low-cost electricity generation, provides valuable ancillary grid services, and supports the integration of nondispatchable weather-dependent resources (e.g., wind and solar). Despite its value to the grid, there are very few comprehensive datasets available from which to study both historical and future impacts of climate, weather driven energy droughts, and integration of other weather driven generation. In this paper, we present a hydropower generation dataset covering 1,452 hydroelectric plants in the contiguous U.S. The dataset contains monthly and weekly hydropower generation estimates for both historical (1982–2019) and future (2020–2099) periods which includes 4 future climate scenarios. In addition, this dataset provides weekly and monthly constraints such as minimum and maximum power which are particularly useful in power system models which are used to study grid reliability, transmission planning and capacity expansion.

13 HYDRO ENERGY

Hydropower Market Game

SF-25-121 The Hydropower Market Game is an interactive educational software developed to teach fundamental concepts of hydropower generation, operations, and its role within electricity markets. Developed in Python and powered by Pygame, the game combines narrative-driven learning with progressive, hands-on levels where players explore topics such as the relationship between water flow and power generation, dam operations, pumped-storage systems, market interactions, and environmental constraints.Designed to support outreach and workforce development initiatives, the game provides an intuitive and engaging way to build energy literacy and raise awareness of hydropower’s contribution to the nation’s energy system.

Ploussard, Quentin [Argonne National Laboratory (A

A Reduced-form Cost Model for Prefeasibility Analysis of Hydropower at Non-Powered Dams

This study presents a reduced-form model to support a better understanding of the capacity potential and drivers of costs for hydropower development at U.S. non-powered dams (NPD), which are existing dams that are not currently used for hydropower. With information on nineteen reference sites, a set of reduced-form design and cost equations were estimated to enable rapid assessments of aggregate costs and their components for a large number of NPD sites. The model was then applied to 36,000+ potential U.S. NPD sites using the limited data commonly available. Although the cost estimates span a wide range, there exists a significant amount of U.S. NPD hydropower capacity potential, which are considered cost-competitive in the current market using baseline technologies.

13 HYDRO ENERGY

Floating Photovoltaics in Hydropower Reservoirs in the United States

This report presents a comprehensive analysis of the feasibility of floating photovoltaics (FPV) in federally regulated reservoirs within the continental United States (CONUS) and to present a methodology for capturing the true costs of deployment, potential environmental impacts, and regulatory pathways for open-loop hydropower reservoirs. It is intended for stakeholders who may not be solar industry experts but who are interested in exploring the potential for FPV in their reservoirs. While there are promising opportunities, particularly in enhancing dissolved oxygen (DO) levels and potentially improving compliance with existing hydropower licenses, the current capital costs of FPV are not yet competitive with traditional land-based solar installations at the utility-scale when comparing the LCOE results. A competitive financial outlook is achievable when applying a 30% Investment Tax Credit (ITC) and considering a 5% reduction from the baseline capital expenditures (CapEx) at the Tuckertown Reservoir in North Carolina case study. The study is structured around three key pillars of research: technical potential, environmental impacts and regulatory considerations, and technoeconomic analysis. This report provides a nationwide assessment of the opportunities for FPV in terms of capacity, measured in direct current megawatts (MWDC), in reservoirs managed by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR), the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). Additionally, the report introduces a heuristic model for estimating the CapEx of utility-scale FPV projects (1–100 MW), offering a baseline cost estimate for stakeholders. Finally, the report applies these models to a case study of a hydropower reservoir in North Carolina to present site-specific results.

13 - HYDRO ENERGY

Micro-Hydropower and Aquatic Restoration on Lands of the Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians

Rural and Tribal communities in Southern Appalachia face persistent challenges in energy access owing to rugged terrain, dense forest cover, and limited infrastructure. The Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians (EBCI) is a federally recognized Tribe whose ancestral homelands include much of Southern Appalachia. The Tribe’s present-day homeland, termed the Qualla Boundary, lies in the heart of the region, where the extreme ruggedness of the Blue Ridge Mountains exacerbates challenges to energy access. For the EBCI, these challenges also intersect with a deep cultural commitment to stewardship of land and water. The Tribe has explored multiple energy solutions, with hydropower serving as an existing and realized source of energy for the region’s communities. However, the EBCI’s commitment to protecting aquatic systems has led not only to a historical lack of endorsement of new conventional hydropower on Tribal lands but also to ongoing efforts to remove the area’s only existing hydropower facility at Ela Dam.

13 HYDRO ENERGY

Cost Model for Pumped Storage Hydropower Geomembrane Lining Systems

The Cost Model for Pumped Storage Hydropower Geomembrane Lining Systems offers an approximation of geomembrane lining system costs for pumped storage hydropower (PSH) reservoirs. Geomembrane lining systems have been used around the world for over 60 years for the construction of dams and reservoirs. Although geomembrane lining systems have found widespread use in the construction of canals and waste containment systems, they have not been utilized in the construction of new PSH facilities in the United States since the Mount Elbert PSH powerplant in Colorado. For this reason, PSH developers in the United States expressed the need for a tool that would allow them to estimate the costs of geomembrane lining systems for their PSH projects. To meet this need, the Cost Model for Pumped Storage Hydropower Geomembrane Lining Systems was developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory with support from Argonne National Laboratory and Stantec, Inc. This Cost Model will enable PSH developers to develop a preliminary estimate of the cost of geomembrane lining systems and to better understand different reservoir lining options and their cost and performance characteristics, thus enabling them to make informed decisions related to preferred reservoir lining systems for their PSH projects.

DeNeale, Scott [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN

RectifHydPlus: Forty Year Hydropower Generation Reanalysis for Conterminous United States, Version 1.1.

This dataset contains monthly hydropower net-generation totals for 590 plants (each >10 MW) across the conterminous United States (CONUS) from 1980 to 2019. RectifHydPlus v1.1 includes one harmonized table of historical monthly generation—backfilled with observed monthly values where available—and two companion tables: (i) an estimates-only version with no backfill and (ii) a hydrological-control version that removes the effects of capacity and operational change. Each table comprises 23,600 records (590 plants × 40 years). The dataset was developed to address temporal gaps and inconsistencies in publicly available hydropower generation data as available through EIA-923 survey reports. Each record includes a quality label denoting the underlying proxy—from best (direct reservoir releases) to weakest (pattern copied from similar years). By combining the agency-reported survey records with observed and simulated hydrologic releases, RectifHydPlus offers complete, quality-labeled monthly estimates suitable for trend analysis and generation of hydropower generation inputs for energy-water modeling.

Turner, Sean [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)

Existing Hydropower Assets (EHA) Puerto Rico Plant Database Extension

This dataset is an extension and subset of the Existing Hydropower Assets (EHA) Plant Database, 2025, released by Oak Ridge National Laboratory through HydroSource covering hydropower plants in Puerto Rico. The extension enhanced EHA to support modeling performed under the Department of Energy Hydropower Office's SECURE Water Act Section 9505 Fourth Assessment (9505). Included is a spatial dataset containing the location of the powerhouse and plant characteristics and a spatial dataset containing the location of the point-of-diversion and plant characteristics. Enhancements made in this dataset from EHA include updating plant’s spatial locations to explicitly represent the location of the powerhouse; identifying a plant’s point-of-diversion (source of water) spatial location; adding additional plants not included in the 2025 EHA, and revising attributes with updated information.

Broman, Daniel P [Pacific Northwest National Labor