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At least 91 records · Page 5

Accelerating phase field simulations through a hybrid adaptive Fourier neural operator with U-net backbone

Prolonged contact between a corrosive liquid and metal alloys can cause progressive dealloying. For one such process as liquid-metal dealloying (LMD), phase field models have been developed to understand the mechanisms leading to complex morphologies. However, the LMD governing equations in these models often involve coupled non-linear partial differential equations (PDE), which are challenging to solve numerically. In particular, numerical stiffness in the PDEs requires an extremely refined time step size (on the order of 10 -12 s or smaller). This computational bottleneck is especially problematic when running LMD simulation until a late time horizon is required. This motivates the development of surrogate models capable of leaping forward in time, by skipping several consecutive time steps at-once. In this paper, we propose a U-shaped adaptive Fourier neural operator (U-AFNO), a machine learning (ML) based model inspired by recent advances in neural operator learning. U-AFNO employs U-Nets for extracting and reconstructing local features within the physical fields, and passes the latent space through a vision transformer (ViT) implemented in the Fourier space (AFNO). We use U-AFNOs to learn the dynamics of mapping the field at a current time step into a later time step. We also identify global quantities of interest (QoI) describing the corrosion process (e.g., the deformation of the liquid-metal interface, lost metal, etc.) and show that our proposed U-AFNO model is able to accurately predict the field dynamics, in spite of the chaotic nature of LMD. Most notably, our model reproduces the key microstructure statistics and QoIs with a level of accuracy on par with the high-fidelity numerical solver, while achieving a significant 11, 200 × speed-up on a high-resolution grid when comparing the computational expense per time step. Finally, we also investigate the opportunity of using hybrid simulations, in which we alternate forward leaps in time using the U-AFNO with high-fidelity time stepping. We demonstrate that while advantageous for some surrogate model design choices, our proposed U-AFNO model in fully auto-regressive settings consistently outperforms hybrid schemes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Quantitative Nonlinear Optical Polarimetry with High Spatial Resolution

Nonlinear optical microscopy such as in the optical second-harmonic generation (SHG) modality has become a popular tool today for probing materials in the physical and biological sciences. While imaging and spectroscopy are widely used in the microscopy mode, nonlinear polarimetry, which can shed light on materials’ symmetry and microstructure, is relatively underdeveloped. This is partly because quantitative analytical modeling of the optical SHG response for anisotropic crystals and films largely assumes low-numerical aperture (NA) focusing of light, where the plane-wave approximation is sufficient. Tight focusing provides unique benefits in revealing out-of-plane polarization responses, which cannot be detected by near-plane-wave illumination at normal incidence. Here, we outline a method for quantitatively analyzing SHG polarimetry measurements obtained under high-NA focusing within a microscope geometry. Experiments and simulations of a variety of standard samples, from single crystals to thin films, are in good agreement, including measured and simulated spatial SHG maps of ferroelectric domains. A solution to the inverse problem is demonstrated, where the spatial distribution of an SHG tensor with unknown tensor coefficient magnitudes is determined by experimentally measured polarimetry. The ability to extract the out-of-plane component of the nonlinear polarization in normal incidence is demonstrated, which can be valuable for high-resolution polarimetry of 2D materials, thin films, heterostructures, and uniaxial crystals with a strong out-of-plane response.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Bias Correcting NOAA's High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Wind Resource Data for Grid Integration Applications [Slides]

Many weather years of high-quality wind data are widely accepted in the grid integration community to be important for studying wind energy technical potential, energy system operations, and grid resilience. NREL makes high-quality wind and solar resource data available. NREL's Grid-Atmosphere workshop (March 2024) identified NREL National Solar Radiation Database as widely used in grid integration modeling, but there is less agreement on commonly used wind datasets. One important factor identified by ESIG's 2023 report 'Weather Dataset Needs for Planning and Analyzing Modern Power Systems' for gold standard wind data is regular updates. To address the need for regular updates, NREL's team can now process all currently available and regularly updated High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) outputs. HRRR is an hourly-updated operational forecast product produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (Dowell et al., 2022). One barrier to NREL using HRRR is systematic bias and consistency with NREL's existing wind datasets (e.g. WIND Toolkit, 'WTK') across weather years. To address this barrier, we show that the HRRR can be interpolated and bias-corrected to be consistent with NRE's existing datasets. We call the new dataset BC-HRRR (bias-corrected HRRR). As with historical datasets like the WTK, BC-HRRR is intended for use in grid integration modeling (e.g., capacity expansion, production cost, and resource adequacy modeling). BC-HRRR's (2015-present) consistency with WTK (2007-2013) allows NREL to extend internal grid integration tooling with 15+ weather years of wind data with low-overhead extensibility to future years as they are made available by NOAA. The rest of this slide deck documents the BC-HRRR processing methods, validation, and its implications for intended use.

17 WIND ENERGY

High-Resolution Modeling of the Gulf of Mexico using E3SM

Coastal ocean modeling is a high priority in the DOE‘s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). The goal is to accurately predict the risk of damage to coastal resources and infrastructure due to a changing climate in the coming decades. North American coastal communities are areas of particular interest, as this fits under the topic of US national security and planning assessments in a changing climate. LANL Institutional Computing time for the Tier 1 allocation ”Coastal Ocean and Sea Ice Modeling” have been used for development and testing of numerical methods needed for E3SM coastal applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

CoURAGE KAZR b1 Processing: Corrections, Calibrations, and Processing Report

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility supports atmospheric and earth system research through a comprehensive network of fixed and mobile observatories. These facilities provide long-term and intensive campaign-based observations of clouds, aerosols, precipitation, radiation, and meteorological state variables. ARM observations are designed to improve the physical understanding and numerical representation of atmospheric processes in earth system models, with particular emphasis on cloud-radiation interactions and precipitation processes. The Coast-Urban-Rural Atmospheric Gradient Experiment (CoURAGE) deploys one of the ARM Mobile Facilities (AMF) to the Mid-Atlantic region surrounding Baltimore, Maryland, for the period 1 December 2024 through 30 November 2025. This deployment focuses on characterizing atmospheric structure, cloud properties, and precipitation processes across strong land-use and surface heterogeneity gradients associated with urban, rural, and coastal (Chesapeake Bay) environments. The CoURAGE deployment complements the Baltimore Social-Environmental Collaborative (BSEC), a DOE Urban Integrated Field Laboratory (UIFL), by providing high-quality atmospheric observations needed to connect urban surface processes, emissions, and meteorology to cloud and precipitation responses. In addition to the central urban site, ancillary observing sites were deployed to rural Maryland northwest of Baltimore and to an island site in Chesapeake Bay. These measurements further complement a long-term atmospheric observatory operated in Beltsville, Maryland, by Howard University in collaboration with the Maryland Department of the Environment. Together, these assets form a four-node regional atmospheric observatory network representing Baltimore and its three primary surrounding environments—urban, rural, and coastal/bay. This coordinated observational strategy enables investigation of spatial gradients in boundary-layer structure, cloud occurrence, precipitation evolution, and aerosol-cloud interactions across complex surface regimes. Within this network, vertically pointing cloud radars play a critical role by providing continuous, high-resolution measurements of cloud and precipitation vertical structure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

High-Burnup LOCA Burst Susceptibility BISON Analysis in PWRs and BWRs

Accurately assessing high-burnup fuel behavior during loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs) is essential for understanding fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD) risks across the US light-water reactor fleet. This work updates previous Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) Program multiphysics LOCA analyses for a pressurized water reactor (PWR) and a boiling water reactor (BWR) by incorporating recent model and material property advancements in the BISON fuel performance code, including a high-burnup structure (HBS) model, revised cladding burst criteria, and updated thermal–mechanical correlations. This update was needed to support ongoing industry initiatives and upcoming regulatory changes. Full-core, rod-resolved operating histories generated using Virtual Environment for Reactor Analysis (VERA) and system-level LOCA conditions obtained from TRACE were applied to statistically representative rod samples in BISON to evaluate burst behavior and FFRD susceptibility. These calculations used two cladding burst correlations and three fuel pulverization models so that the predictions of these models could be compared. The updated PWR simulations show markedly improved numerical stability as the number of crashed simulations decreased by 95% compared to the previous study, and hence higher confidence in results. The updated PWR simulations predicted cladding bursts exclusively among once-burned, high-power rods, with two different cladding burst models identifying the same burst-susceptible population. Resulting FFRD susceptibility estimates are significantly reduced compared with earlier studies, driven by cooler predicted fuel and plenum temperatures, lower hoop strains, and reduced fission gas release in the updated models. In contrast, none of the BWR rods were predicted to burst under either burst criterion, reaffirming minimal BWR FFRD susceptibility even with updated HBS and material models. Comparisons between the PWR and BWR end-of-cycle predictions are made. Comparison with prior work highlights significant shifts in PWR fuel performance metrics and confirmation of earlier BWR conclusions. Overall, the updated results underscore the importance of having high-resolution detailed modeling capability and continuously integrating evolving material models and physics into high-resolution multiphysics simulations. The unified assessment presented here strengthens confidence in predicting high-burnup LOCA behavior by improving agreement between different cladding burst correlations. These results also provide an improved foundation for future BISON model development, FFRD susceptibility calculations.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

Elemental profiling and genome-wide association studies reveal genomic variants modulating ionomic composition in Populus trichocarpa leaves

The ionome represents elemental composition in plant tissues and can be an indicator of nutrient status as well as overall plant performance. Thus, identifying genetic determinants governing elemental uptake and storage is an important goal for breeding and engineering biomass feedstocks with improved performance. In this study, we coupled high-throughput ionome characterization of leaf tissues with high-resolution genome-wide association studies (GWAS) to uncover genetic loci that modulate ionomic composition in leaves of poplar ( Populus trichocarpa ). Significant agreement was observed across the three ionomic profiling platforms tested: inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS), neutron activation analysis (NAA) and laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS). Relative quantification of 20 elements using ICP-MS across a population of 584 genotypes, revealed larger variation in micro-nutrients and trace elements content than for macro-nutrients across genotypes. The GWAS performed using a set of high-density (>8.2 million) single nucleotide polymorphisms, identified over 600 loci significantly associated with variations in these mineral elements, pointing to numerous uncharacterized candidate genes. A significant enrichment for genes related to ion homeostasis and transport was observed, including several members of the cation-proton antiporters (CPA) family and MATE efflux transporters, previously reported to be critical for plant growth and fitness in other species. Our results also included a polymorphic copy of the high-affinity molybdenum transporter MOT1 found directly associated to molybdenum content. For the first time in a perennial plant, our results provide evidence of genetic control of mineral content in a model tree species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

The Role of Three-dimensional Effects on Ion Injection and Acceleration in Perpendicular Shocks

Understanding the conditions that enable particle acceleration at nonrelativistic collisionless shocks is essential to unveil the origin of cosmic rays. We employ 2D and 3D hybrid simulations (with kinetic ions and fluid electrons) to explore particle acceleration and magnetic field amplification in nonrelativistic perpendicular shocks, focusing on the role of shock drift acceleration and its dependence on the shock Mach number. We perform an analysis of the ion injection process and demonstrate why efficient acceleration is only observed in 3D. In particular, we show that ion injection critically depends on the “porosity” of the magnetic turbulence in the downstream region near the shock, a property describing how easily the postshock region allows particles to traverse it and return upstream without being trapped. This effect can only be properly captured in 3D. Additionally, we explore the impact of numerical resolution on ion energization, highlighting how resolving small-scale turbulence—on scales below the thermal ion gyroradius—is essential for accurately modeling particle injection. Overall, our results emphasize the necessity of high-resolution 3D simulations to capture the fundamental microphysics driving particle acceleration at perpendicular shocks.

Orusa, Luca [Princeton Univ., NJ (United States);

Distortion of a Relativistic Jet Echoing a Magnetic Flux Eruption

Magnetized accretion onto spinning black holes (BHs) can accumulate a large magnetic flux across the event horizon and launch a pair of relativistic jets via the Blandford–Znajek mechanism. In the magnetically saturated (arrested) state, excess magnetic flux is ejected from the BH in episodic magnetic flux eruptions, which result in a significant yet temporary reduction of jet power. We analyze results of a high-resolution 3D general-relativistic magnetohydrodynamic numerical simulation of geometrically thick magnetically saturated accretion onto a high-spin Kerr BH for a single cycle of magnetic flux eruption and accumulation. We show that following an eruption, a weakened jet develops a strong helical distortion with a distinct structure of magnetic fields—the poloidal field along the jet core is unaffected by the eruption; while toroidal field lines, ejected from the BH during the eruption and later readvected onto it, form poloidal “bypasses” along the inner jet sheath. Such a distortion may appear in sources fed by geometrically thick accretion flows as an asymmetric superluminal knot, strongly interacting with the jet sheath along an oblique working surface. The jet section repowered by magnetic flux reaccumulated on the BH is tilted by a few degrees, implying significant variations in radiation boost towards observers of BL Lac blazars. The intrinsic structure of the jet spine is consistent with axisymmetric semi-analytical models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS

Linking large-scale weather patterns to observed and modeled turbine hub-height winds offshore of the US West Coast

The US West Coast holds great potential for wind power generation, although its potential varies due to the complex coastal climate. Characterizing and modeling turbine hub-height winds under different weather conditions are vital for wind resource assessment and management. This study uses a two-stage machine learning algorithm to identify five large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs): post-trough, post-ridge, pre-ridge, pre-trough, and California high. The LSMPs are linked to offshore wind patterns, specifically at lidar buoy locations within lease areas for future wind farm development off Humboldt and Morro Bay. While each LSMP is associated with characteristic large-scale atmospheric conditions and corresponding differences in wind direction, diurnal variation, and jet features at the two lidar sites, substantial variability in wind speeds can still occur within each LSMP. Wind speeds at Humboldt increase during the post-trough, pre-ridge, and California-high LSMPs and decrease during the remaining LSMPs. Morro Bay has smaller responses in mean speeds, showing increased wind speed during the post-trough and California-high LSMPs. Besides the LSMPs, local factors, including the land–sea thermal contrast and topography, also modify mean winds and diurnal variation. The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model analysis does a good job of capturing the mean and variation at Humboldt but produces large biases at Morro Bay, particularly during the pre-ridge and California-high LSMPs. The findings are anticipated to guide the selection of cases for studying the influence of specific large-scale and local factors on California offshore winds and to contribute to refining numerical weather prediction models, thereby enhancing the efficiency and reliability of offshore wind energy production.

17 WIND ENERGY

IUE observations of the peculiar M giant HD 4174

Ultraviolet spectra of the peculiar M giant HD 4174, which may possess a significant magnetic field, are shown to exhibit numerous high-excitation emission lines and no background continuum. Ionization equilibrium temperatures for species observed range from 6000 K (Mg II) up to 200,000 K (N v). Density diagnostics using line ratios indicate electron density of 3 x 10 to the 9th power per cu cm in the emission-line-forming region, which favorably compares with coronal model parameters previously suggested for this star. High-resolution Ca II and Mg II profiles suggest an enhanced chromospheric temperature rise. Comparison with symbiotic objects and a high-excitation planetary nebula reveals similarities among these objects.

Stencel, R. E.

A high-resolution study of the gas flow in barred spirals

The considered investigation is concerned with conditions in that type of spiral galaxy which is known as a 'barred spiral'. The lack of star formation and the smoothness of the dark dust lanes may indicate that the bar region is pervaded by a more homogeneous interstellar medium with a lower viscosity than that characteristic of the outer regions. The effects of such a reduced viscosity are investigated on the basis of high-resolution time-dependent gasdynamical equations. Calculations modeling the gas flow in a given bar potential are presented. The calculations were performed on grids with various mesh sizes and consequently had different resolutions and numerical viscosities. A reduction in the numerical diffusion and viscosity was accompanied by changes in the flow pattern, including the appearance of a strong shock in the bar region and the occurrence of postshock outflow.

Van Albada, G. D.

A general-purpose computer program for studying ultrasonic beam patterns generated with acoustic lenses

A 3-D computer model of a piston radiator with lenses for focusing and defocusing is presented. To achieve high-resolution imaging, the frequency of the transmitted and received ultrasound must be as high as 10 MHz. Current ultrasonic transducers produce an extremely narrow beam at these high frequencies and thus are not appropriate for imaging schemes such as synthetic-aperture focus techniques (SAFT). Consequently, a numerical analysis program has been developed to determine field intensity patterns that are radiated from ultrasonic transducers with lenses. Lens shapes are described and the field intensities are numerically predicted and compared with experimental results.

Roberti, Dino

Imaging and spectroscopy of Comet P/Halley

The goals of this investigation are the analysis of a large set of high-resolution echelle/reticon spectra, and the reduction and analysis of a set of narrow-band-filtered charge coupled device (CCD) images of Comet Halley taken during the preperihelion period at Oak Ridge Observatory by Dr. R. E. McCrosky. The scientific objectives associated with these goals are the determination of the spatial distributions of several important radicals, atoms and ions in the coma. These include C2, CN, C3, H2O(+) and CO(+) from the image data. The analysis of the neutral species distribution with Monte Carlo models will aid in the understanding of their production and decay mechanisms as well as serve as an important indicator of the physical conditions in the inner coma. The spatial distributions of the ions will serve as a guide to constrain the complex model necessary for understanding the interaction of the solar wind and the cometary ions. Work during this past year has been devoted largely to the reduction of the standard star photometry for the CCD image data set, as well as the re-flat-fielding of a number of the comet images. We are pleased to report that despite a number of setbacks and the small effort devoted to this work (2 1/2 months for the PI and a generous share of completely unsupported time by Dr. McCrosky) that this portion of the work has been successfully completed. The goals for the upcoming final year of this project (under a new project number) are to complete the calibration of the CCD image data for inclusion in the IHW archive, to analyze a select portion of the neutral radical images with our Monte Carlo models, and to present the results of the 6300/region spectra as a guide to low-resolution spectral observers in order to yield the unambiguous separation of the contributions of cometary O(1D), airglow O(1D), and the numerous NH2 lines in that region of the spectrum.

Combi, Michael R.

Heterodyne spectroscopy of the J = 17-16 CO line in Orion

We have obtained high-resolution spectra of the 153 micrometers J = 17-16 CO line in the BN-KL region of Orion using a laser heterodyne spectrometer. The line shows broad wings (30 km s-1 FWHM at BN) characteristic of the plateau emission as well as a narrower component probably associated with the quiescent gas in the molecular ridge. From an analysis of the plateau emission together with that observed in lower J CO transitions, we derive an excitation temperature of 180 +/- 50 K and minimum column density of 1 x 10(18) cm-2 for CO in this component, which constitutes 80% of the total integrated intensity of the J = 17-16 line near BN. The peak intensity of the narrower component observed at 0.8 km s-1 resolution increases relative to that of the plateau component toward theta 1C and away from BN, while the width decreases from 10 to 4 km s-1 (FWHM).

NASA Discipline Number 52-60

LES-Based Analysis of Film Cooling in a High-Pressure Turbine Rotor Including Effects of Purge and Tip Flow

Accurate modeling of coolant airflows, which form protective films over turbine blades, is essential for designing fuel-efficient and environmentally sustainable gas turbine engines. Excessive coolant reduces thermal efficiency, while insufficient coolant leads to blade overheating and causes damage. Therefore, precise prediction of flow field interactions with cooling air is critical for optimizing turbine performance. This study numerically investigates the cooling effectiveness of purge and film cooling flows within a high-pressure turbine (HPT) rotor using Large Eddy Simulation (LES). The study utilizes NASA Glenn Research Center’s Glenn-HT solver. The simulation models ethe conditions of the Penn State University START rotating rig. A high-fidelity structured mesh comprising up to 800 million cells is employed to resolve high-Reynolds number flow (Re ≈ 350,000) and to capture intricate secondary flow structures, including tip leakage and purge-induced vortices. Film cooling effectiveness computations are highly sensitive to boundary conditions at the cooling holes and to grid resolution. Even with well-resolved grids and included plena, strong mixing challenges traditional eddy viscosity models. To address this, a simplified configuration is simulated: a truncated row of shaped holes on the suction side near the leading edge and a row on the pressure side, both fed from internal plena while the purge slot and tip clearance are also modeled. Two isothermal LES cases are conducted at two distinct wall temperatures, which yield the adiabatic wall temperature and the heat transfer coefficient. The definition and means of computation of the effectiveness is discussed in this paper. The simulations reveal detailed three-dimensional unsteady flow features, including coherent vortical structures and secondary flows originating from the purge cavity. Film cooling effectiveness and Nusselt number distributions are presented for both the blade surface and tip, highlighting regions of elevated heat transfer and complex thermal behavior. These findings underscore the importance of high-resolution LES and realistic boundary conditions in capturing the dynamics of purge and film cooling, offering valuable insights for improving turbine blade design and thermal management strategies.

Secondary Flows

A GPU-based Approach for Turbomachinery Application

Accurate modeling of coolant airflows, which form protective films over turbine blades, is essential for designing fuel-efficient and environmentally sustainable gas turbine engines. Excessive coolant reduces thermal efficiency, while insufficient coolant leads to blade overheating and causes damage. Therefore, precise prediction of flow field interactions with cooling air is critical for optimizing turbine performance. This study numerically investigates the cooling effectiveness of purge and film cooling flows within a high-pressure turbine (HPT) rotor using Large Eddy Simulation (LES). The study utilizes NASA Glenn Research Center’s Glenn-HT solver. The simulation models ethe conditions of the Penn State University START rotating rig. A high-fidelity structured mesh comprising up to 800 million cells is employed to resolve high-Reynolds number flow (Re ≈ 350,000) and to capture intricate secondary flow structures, including tip leakage and purge-induced vortices. Film cooling effectiveness computations are highly sensitive to boundary conditions at the cooling holes and to grid resolution. Even with well-resolved grids and included plena, strong mixing challenges traditional eddy viscosity models. To address this, a simplified configuration is simulated: a truncated row of shaped holes on the suction side near the leading edge and a row on the pressure side, both fed from internal plena while the purge slot and tip clearance are also modeled. Two isothermal LES cases are conducted at two distinct wall temperatures, which yield the adiabatic wall temperature and the heat transfer coefficient. The definition and means of computation of the effectiveness is discussed in this paper. The simulations reveal detailed three-dimensional unsteady flow features, including coherent vortical structures and secondary flows originating from the purge cavity. Film cooling effectiveness and Nusselt number distributions are presented for both the blade surface and tip, highlighting regions of elevated heat transfer and complex thermal behavior. These findings underscore the importance of high-resolution LES and realistic boundary conditions in capturing the dynamics of purge and film cooling, offering valuable insights for improving turbine blade design and thermal management strategies.

Gas Turbine

Hydrogeological assessment of CO2 containment assurance and wellbore integrity at a Gulf Coast storage site

Abstract A large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) initiative on the Texas Gulf Coast serves as a premier demonstration of the U.S. Department of Energy’s CarbonSAFE program. Targeting deep saline formations, specifically Oligo-Miocene deltaic sequences, the project aims to establish technical and commercial viability for geologic CO2 storage within a major industrial corridor. This study provides a rigorous hydrogeological assessment to support Class VI permitting by quantifying the high degree of containment security. Utilizing a compositional reservoir simulator, we developed a suite of 27 distinct simulation cases to evaluate vertical plume dynamics near both planned injection wells and proximal legacy infrastructure. To ensure numerical accuracy near wellbores, we implemented a refined mesh strategy, determining that a 5.6 ft × 5.6 ft grid refinement offered the optimal balance between computational efficiency and descriptive precision. The modeling framework utilized a systematic sensitivity-based approach to evaluate the mechanical redundancy of the subsurface system by performing a bounding analysis of wellbore interfaces against hypothetical high-permeability microannuli. By systematically isolating competing physical drivers, including permeability, porosity, gas hysteresis, thermal gradients, salinity, and solubility trapping (quantified via Henry’s law with dynamically adjusted coefficients), this work moves beyond binary assessments to establish a nuanced hierarchy of containment factors. The results confirm that primary trapping mechanisms (e.g., gas hysteresis and solubility), combined with the site's unique geomechanical stratigraphy, significantly restrict vertical mobility and reinforce the robust containment security of the reservoir. Baseline results demonstrate substantial vertical separation between the CO2 plume and the upper confining system, ensuring robust containment. Sensitivity analysis reveals that even under highly conservative bounding scenarios—assuming theoretical 10-Darcy pathways at specific wellbore locations—the 2,900-ft thick multi-layered confining zone remains a reliable barrier. In these hypothetical upper-bound cases, peak upward fluxes of CO2 and saltwater after 15 years of injection remain localized and dissipate rapidly within the lower sections of the confining interval, leaving the integrity of the seal uncompromised. Furthermore, the study identifies that while localized wellbore pathways define theoretical upper bounds of vertical migration, the Area of Review (AoR) is primarily sensitive to regional thermal gradients and hysteresis, which can influence the AoR by over 3,000 acres in pessimistic configurations. Also, primary trapping mechanisms, specifically gas hysteresis and solubility, work in tandem with the Gulf Coast’s unique geomechanical stratigraphy to significantly restrict vertical mobility. Ductile, smectite-rich mudstones facilitate natural borehole convergence and the self-healing of potential conduits, creating a natural geomechanical bridge that effectively mitigates migration potential at both current injection points and legacy-well locations. This comprehensive modeling effort demonstrates that the integration of high-resolution wellbore simulations and regional geomechanical observations confirms the long-term storage security of the studied site, providing a physics-based foundation for industrial-scale CCS deployments. This modeling framework establishes a baseline for future research into coupled geomechanical effects, such as time-dependent borehole convergence, to further refine long-term containment projections. Acknowledgements We thank the Gulf Coast Carbon Center (GCCC) at the Bureau of Economic Geology for foundational research support. We appreciate Alex Bump for technical guidance and David Hoffman for model mesh generation. This work used TACC’s Frontera cluster for simulations and CMG Ltd. software licenses provided to UT-Austin. This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy under Award Number DE-FE0032338. Disclaimer This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Office under the CarbonSAFE program, award Number DE-FE0032338. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Department of Energy or the United States Government.

58 GEOSCIENCES