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Radiative heating and cooling rates in the middle atmosphere

One of the limitations to the accurate calculation of radiative heating and cooling rates in the stratosphere and mesosphere has been the lack of accurate data on the atmospheric temperature and composition. Data from the LIMS experiment on Nimbus-7 has been extended to the South Pole with the aid of other observations. The data have been used as input to codes developed by Ramanathan and Dickinson to calculate the individual components and the net radiative heating rates from 100-0.1 mb. Solar heating due to ozone, nitrogen dioxide, carbon dioxide, water vapor and oxygen is shown to be nearly balanced by cooling in the thermal infrared spectral region due to carbon dioxide, ozone and water vapor. In the lower stratosphere, infrared transfer by ozone leads to heating that is sensitive to the distribution of tropospheric ozone, clouds and water vapor. The heating and cooling rates are adjusted slightly in order to satisfy the global mass balance. The results are in qualitative agreement with earlier calculations, but show additional detail. There is as strong temporal and vertical variation of cooling in the tropics. Radiative relaxation times are as short as 7 days or less at the stratopause.

Gille, John C.↗

The WCRP/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget Project Release 2: First Results at 1 Degree Resolution

The earth s surface radiative budget in the solar wavelengths (i.e., shortwave) and thermal infrared wavelengths (i.e., longwave) is an important component of Earth s global energy balance and climate. As such, it was identified as a priority need by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and thus a program was instituted at NASA to estimate the radiative flux quantities at the surface from space observations. The Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) Project was created and later included as a component of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) under the auspices of the WCRP.

Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.↗

Radiative Effects of Aerosols Generated from Biomass Burning, Dust Storms, and Forest Fires

Atmospheric aerosol particles, both natural and anthropogenic, are important to the earth's radiative balance. They scatter the incoming solar radiation and modify the shortwave reflective properties of clouds by acting as Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN). Although it has been recognized that aerosols exert a net cooling influence on climate (Twomey et al. 1984), this effect has received much less attention than the radiative forcings due to clouds and greenhouse gases. The radiative forcing due to aerosols is comparable in magnitude to current anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing but opposite in sign (Houghton et al. 1990). Atmospheric aerosol particles generated from biomass burning, dust storms and forest fires are important regional climatic variables. A recent study by Penner et al. (1992) proposed that smoke particles from biomass burning may have a significant impact on the global radiation balance. They estimate that about 114 Tg of smoke is produced per year in the tropics through biomass burning. The direct and indirect effects of smoke aerosol due to biomass burning could add up globally to a cooling effect as large as 2 W/sq m. Ackerman and Chung (1992) used model calculations and the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) data to show that in comparison to clear days, the heavy dust loading over the Saudi Arabian peninsula can change the Top of the Atmosphere (TOA) clear sky shortwave and longwave radiant exitance by 40-90 W/sq m and 5-20 W/sq m, respectively. Large particle concentrations produced from these types of events often are found with optical thicknesses greater than one. These aerosol particles are transported across considerable distances from the source (Fraser et al. 1984). and they could perturb the radiative balance significantly. In this study, the regional radiative effects of aerosols produced from biomass burning, dust storms and forest fires are examined using the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Local Area Coverage (LAC) data and the instantaneous scanner ERBE data from the NOAA-9 and NOAA-10 satellites.

Christopher Sundar A.↗

A Large Source of Cloud Condensation Nuclei from New Particle Formation in the Tropics

Cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) can affect cloud properties and therefore the Earth’s radiative balance. New particle formation (NPF) from condensable vapours in the free troposphere has been suggested to contribute to CCN, especially in remote, pristine atmospheric regions, but direct evidence is sparse, and the magnitude of this contribution is uncertain. Here we use in-situ aircraft measurements of vertical profiles of aerosol size distributions to present a global-scale survey of NPF occurrence. We observed intense NPF occurring at high altitude in tropical convective regions over both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Together with the results of chemical-transport models, our findings indicate that NPF persists at all longitudes as a global-scale band in the tropical upper troposphere, covering about 40% of the Earth’s surface. Furthermore, we find that this NPF in the tropical upper troposphere is a globally important source of CCN in the lower troposphere, where they can affect cloud properties. Our findings suggest that the production of CCN, as these new particles descend towards the surface, is currently not adequately captured in global models, because they tend to underestimate both the magnitude of tropical upper tropospheric NPF and the subsequent growth to CCN sizes. This has potential implications for cloud albedo and the global radiative balance.

Atmospheric chemistry↗

NASA's Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP) Mission

The Soil Moisture Active-Passive (SMAP) Mission is one of the first Earth observation satellites being formulated by NASA in response to the 2007 National Research Council s Decadal Survey. SMAP will make global measurements of soil moisture at the Earth's land surface and its freeze-thaw state. These measurements will allow significantly improved estimates of water, energy and carbon transfers between the land and atmosphere. Soil moisture measurements are also of great importance in assessing flooding and monitoring drought. Knowledge gained from SMAP observations can help mitigate these natural hazards, resulting in potentially great economic and social benefits. SMAP observations of soil moisture and freeze/thaw timing over the boreal latitudes will also reduce a major uncertainty in quantifying the global carbon balance and help to resolve an apparent missing carbon sink over land. The SMAP mission concept will utilize an L-band radar and radiometer sharing a rotating 6-meter mesh reflector antenna flying in a 680 km polar orbit with an 8-day exact ground track repeat aboard a 3-axis stabilized spacecraft to provide high-resolution and high-accuracy global maps of soil moisture and freeze/thaw state every two to three days. In addition, the SMAP project will use these surface observations with advanced modeling and data assimilation to provide estimates of deeper root-zone soil moisture and net ecosystem exchange of carbon. SMAP recently completed its Phase A Mission Concept Study Phase for NASA and transitioned into Phase B (Formulation and Detailed Design). A number of significant accomplishments occurred during this initial phase of mission development. The SMAP project held several open meetings to solicit community feedback on possible science algorithms, prepared preliminary draft Algorithm Theoretical Basis Documents (ATBDs) for each mission science product, and established a prototype algorithm testbed to enable testing and evaluation of the performance of candidate algorithms. SMAP conducted an Applications Workshop in September 2009 to coordinate with potential application users interested in the mission data. A draft Applications Plan describing the Project s planned outreach to potential applications users has been prepared and will be updated during Phase B. SMAP made a significant evaluation of the potential terrestrial radio frequency interference (RFI) source environment and established radiometer and radar flight hardware and ground processing mitigation approaches. SMAP finalized its science orbit and orbit injection approach to optimize launch mass and prepared launch and commissioning scenarios and timeline. A science data communications approach was developed to maximize available science data volume to improve science margins while maintaining moderately short data product latencies to support many potential applications using existing ground assets and with minimum impact to the flight system. SMAP developed rigid multi-body and flexible body dynamics and control models and system designs for the 6-meter rotating instrument reflector-boom assembly (RBA) and flight system to confirm pointing and control performance, and devised strategies to efficiently implement on-orbit balancing if needed. Industry partners were selected for the spin mechanism assembly (SMA) and RBA. Preliminary designs for the radar and radiometer were initiated, including constructing breadboards of key assemblies.

Kellogg, Kent↗

CHP-PRA Proof-of-Concept [Simulation] Sensitivity Assessment

An effort is underway to establish a Crew Health and Performance system (CHP) tradespace tool using a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) modeling and simulation system. The goal of the CHP-PRA effort is to provide a means of quantifying the integrated influence of CHP functions and capabilities on risk outcome metrics associated with health, performance, and long-term health. These metrics can then be used to establish potential risk-based trades on CHP system designed functionality and capabilities. Previously, our team demonstrated a proof-of-concept PRA approach that estimated the integrated influence of exercise countermeasures on 8 human system risks (Figure 1a) with outcomes associated with health and medical risk metrics. We reported that the change in the integrated relative health risk was small (Figure 1b) and that the small change in overall risk resulted from compounding and competing contribution levels of the individual risks. This interesting observation illustrates the emergent complexity of even straightforward representations of the human health and performance risk space and the ability of PRA models to capture this balance of global risk concerns. A key question that is not addressed in the initial analysis is “even though the global risk is relatively nominal, do any of the local risks become unacceptable?” In essence, we seek to determine what relative change in the human system risks are contributing to the relatively muted sensitivity of the proof-of-concept model combined risk assessments. Evaluations at the component risk level should elucidate if any individual risk reaches a high level that is subsequentially balanced by reductions in other areas. To further understand the relative changes in the component risks in the proof-of-concept model, and to elucidate how future refinements can be targeted, a means of establishing the contributions of the robustness of the proof-of-concept approach will be demonstrated.

astronaut health↗

Monitoring Aerosols from Space: What We can Say, and What We Can't

Aerosols are understood to play a significant role is the global energy balance, and especially on atmospheric as well as surface energy balances regionally. A combination of direct radiative cooling of the surface, atmospheric warming through diabatic heating, and indirect effects of aerosol on clouds are all thought to contribute to the net aerosol effect, though the magnitudes of each are both highly variable in space and time, and highly uncertain. Passive space-based remote sensing is a key tool for constraining these effects, due to the frequent, global coverage satellites can provide. However, information from such observations about total-column aerosol amount (i.e., aerosol optical depth or AOD), and especially about aerosol type, is limited. The current generation of passive aerosol remote-sensing instruments, including the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) and the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) offer vast improvements over previous instruments, including AOD over water and much of the land surface, fine vs. coarse particle type over ocean from MODIS, and discrimination of about a dozen aerosol types from MISR under good retrieval conditions, based on particle size, shape, and single-scattering albedo (SSA) constraints. This presentation will summarize the capabilities and expected improvements in the currently available aerosol products, in light of required energy budget constraints. Ways of addressing the need for detailed information about particle microphysical properties, especially SSA, unobtainable from MISR or MODIS, will be discussed.

Kahn, Ralph A.↗

Support for global science: Remote sensing's challenge

Remote sensing uses a wide variety of techniques and methods. Resulting data are analyzed by man and machine, using both analog and digital technology. The newest and most important initiatives in the U. S. civilian space program currently revolve around the space station complex, which includes the core station as well as co-orbiting and polar satellite platforms. This proposed suite of platforms and support systems offers a unique potential for facilitating long term, multidisciplinary scientific investigations on a truly global scale. Unlike previous generations of satellites, designed for relatively limited constituencies, the space station offers the potential to provide an integrated source of information which recognizes the scientific interest in investigating the dynamic coupling between the oceans, land surface, and atmosphere. Earth scientist already face problems that are truly global in extent. Problems such as the global carbon balance, regional deforestation, and desertification require new approaches, which combine multidisciplinary, multinational research teams, employing advanced technologies to produce a type, quantity, and quality of data not previously available. The challenge before the international scientific community is to continue to develop both the infrastructure and expertise to, on the one hand, develop the science and technology of remote sensing, while on the other hand, develop an integrated understanding of global life support systems, and work toward a quantiative science of the biosphere.

Estes, J. E.↗

NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Mission Formulation

The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Mission is one of the first Earth observation satellites being formulated by NASA in response to the 2007 National Research Council s Earth Science Decadal Survey [1]. SMAP s measurement objectives are high-resolution global measurements of near-surface soil moisture and its freeze-thaw state. These measurements would allow significantly improved estimates of water, energy and carbon transfers between the land and atmosphere. The soil moisture control of these fluxes is a key factor in the performance of atmospheric models used for weather forecasts and climate projections. Soil moisture measurements are also of great importance in assessing flooding and monitoring drought. Knowledge gained from SMAP s planned observations can help mitigate these natural hazards, resulting in potentially great economic and societal benefits. SMAP measurements would also yield high resolution spatial and temporal mapping of the frozen or thawed condition of the surface soil and vegetation. Observations of soil moisture and freeze/thaw timing over the boreal latitudes will contribute to reducing a major uncertainty in quantifying the global carbon balance and help resolve an apparent missing carbon sink over land. The SMAP mission would utilize an L-band radar and radiometer sharing a rotating 6-meter mesh reflector antenna (see Figure 1) [2]. The radar and radiometer instruments would be carried onboard a 3-axis stabilized spacecraft in a 680 km polar orbit with an 8-day repeating ground track. The instruments are planned to provide high-resolution and high-accuracy global maps of soil moisture at 10 km resolution and freeze/thaw at 3 km resolution, every two to three days (see Table 1 for a list of science data products). The mission is adopting a number of approaches to identify and mitigate potential terrestrial radio frequency interference (RFI). These approaches are being incorporated into the radiometer and radar flight hardware and ground processing designs.

Entekhabi, Dara↗

The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Mission - Algorithm and Cal/Val Activities and Synergies with SMOS and Other L-Band Missions

NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, planned for launch in late 2014, has as its key measurement objective the frequent, global mapping of near-surface soil moisture and its freeze-thaw state. SMAP soil moisture and freeze/thaw measurements at 10 km and 3 km resolutions respectively, would enable significantly improved estimates of water, energy and carbon transfers between the land and atmosphere. Soil moisture control of these fluxes is a key factor in the performance of atmospheric models used for weather forecasts and climate projections Soil moisture measurements are also of great importance in assessing floods and for monitoring drought. In addition, observations of soil moisture and freeze/thaw timing over the boreal latitudes can help reduce uncertainties in quantifying the global carbon balance. The SMAP measurement concept utilizes an L-band radar and radiometer sharing a rotating 6-meter mesh reflector antenna. The SMAP radiometer and radar flight hardware and ground processing designs are incorporating approaches to identify and mitigate potential terrestrial radio frequency interference (RFI). The radar and radiometer instruments are planned to operate in a 680 km polar orbit, viewing the surface at a constant 40-degree incidence angle with a 1000-km swath width, providing 3-day global coverage. Data from the instruments would yield global maps of soil moisture and freeze/thaw state to be provided at 10 km and 3 km resolutions respectively, every two to three days. Plans are to provide also a radiometer-only soil moisture product at 40-km spatial resolution. This product and the underlying brightness temperatures have characteristics similar to those provided by the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission. As a result, there are unique opportunities for common data product development and continuity between the two missions. SMAP also has commonalities with other satellite missions having L-band radiometer and/or radar sensors applicable to soil moisture measurement, such as Aquarius, SAO COM, and ALOS-2. The algorithms and data products for SMAP are being developed in the SMAP Science Data System (SDS) Testbed. The algorithms are developed and evaluated in the SDS Testbed using simulated SMAP observations as well as observational data from current airborne and spaceborne L-band sensors including SMOS. The SMAP project is developing a Calibration and Validation (Cal/Val) Plan that is designed to support algorithm development (pre-launch) and data product validation (post-launch). A key component of the Cal/Val Plan is the identification, characterization, and instrumentation of sites that can be used to calibrate and validate the sensor data (Level I) and derived geophysical products (Level 2 and higher). In this presentation we report on the development status of the SMAP data product algorithms, and the planning and implementation of the SMAP Cal/Val program. Several components of the SMAP algorithm development and Cal/Val plans have commonality with those of SMOS, and for this reason there are shared activities and resources that can be utilized between the missions, including in situ networks, ancillary data sets, and long-term monitoring sites.

Njoku, Eni↗

The role of earth radiation budget studies in climate and general circulation research

The use of earth radiation budget (ERB) data for climate and general circulation research is studied. ERB measurements obtained in the 1960's and 1970's have provided data on planetary brightness, planetary global energy balances, the greenhouse effect, solar insolation, meridional heat transport by oceans and atmospheres, regional forcing, climate feedback processes, and the computation of albedo values in low latitudes. The role of clouds in governing climate, in influencing the general circulation, and in determining the sensitivity of climate to external perturbations needs to be researched; a procedure for analyzing the ERB data, which will address these problems, is described. The approach involves estimating the clear-sky fluxes from the high spatial resolution scanner measurement and defining a cloud radiative forcing; the global average of the sum of the solar and long-wave cloud forcing yields the net radiative effect of clouds on the climate.

Ramanathan, V.↗

Long-Term Validation and Variability of the Shortwave and Longwave Radiation Data of the GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) Project

In this investigation, we make systematic Surface Radiation Budget-Baseline Surface Radiation Network (SRB-BSRN), Surface Radiation Data Centre (SRB-WRDC) and Surface Radiation Budget-Global Energy Balance Archive (SRB-GEBA) comparisons for both shortwave and longwave daily and monthly mean radiation fluxes at the Earth's surface. We first have an overview of all the comparable pairs of data in scatter or scatter density plots. Then we show the time series of the SRB data at grids in which there are ground sites where longterm records of data are available for comparison. An overall very good agreement between the SRB data and ground observations is found. To see the variability of the SRB data during the 21.5 years, we computed the global mean and its linear trend. No appreciable trend is detected at the 5% level. The empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) of the SRB deseasonalized shortwave downward flux are computed over the Pacific region, and the first EOF coefficient is found to be correlated with the ENSO Index at a high value of coefficient of 0.7083.

Zhang, Taiping↗

Hemispherically Asymmetric Volcanic Forcing of Tropical Hydroclimate During the Last Millennium

Volcanic aerosols exert the most important natural radiative forcing of the last millennium. State-of-the-art paleoclimate simulations of this interval are typically forced with diverse spatial patterns of volcanic forcing, leading to different responses in tropical hydroclimate. Recently, theoretical considerations relating the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) position to the demands of global energy balance have emerged in the literature, allowing for a connection to be made between the paleoclimate simulations and recent developments in the understanding of ITCZ dynamics. These energetic considerations aid in explaining the well-known historical, paleoclimatic, and modeling evidence that the ITCZ migrates away from the hemisphere that is energetically deficient in response to asymmetric forcing. Here we use two separate general circulation model (GCM) suites of experiments for the last millennium to relate the ITCZ position to asymmetries in prescribed volcanic sulfate aerosols in the stratosphere and related asymmetric radiative forcing. We discuss the ITCZ shift in the context of atmospheric energetics and discuss the ramifications of transient ITCZ migrations for other sensitive indicators of changes in the tropical hydrologic cycle, including global streamflow. For the first time, we also offer insight into the large-scale fingerprint of water isotopologues in precipitation (delta sup 18 Op) in response to asymmetries in radiative forcing. The ITCZ shifts away from the hemisphere with greater volcanic forcing. Since the isotopic composition of precipitation in the ITCZ is relatively depleted compared to areas outside this zone, this meridional precipitation migration results in a large-scale enrichment (depletion) in the isotopic composition of tropical precipitation in regions the ITCZ moves away from (toward). Our results highlight the need for careful consideration of the spatial structure of volcanic forcing for interpreting volcanic signals in proxy records and therefore in evaluating the skill of Common Era climate model output.

Radiative forcing↗

Cirrus Parameter Retrieval by Combined Analysis of Spectral Thermal Infrared and Lidar Sensing from Aircraft and Space

The distribution, radiative and microphysical parameters of cirrus clouds are an important factor for cloud effects on the global radiation balance and climate. Multispectral thermal infrared observation are the most significant method used to remote sense cirrus parameter from current and planned passive satellite observations. Passive sensing alone has the limitation that both the cloud radiative temperature, or height, and the spectral emissivity must be derived in the analysis. Factors such as multiple cloud laying, which is very common, are known to introduce ambiguities in results. The addition of lidar cloud height structure measurements significantly improves retrievals. Such active/passive observations have been applied from the NASA ER-2 high altitude remote sensing aircraft since 1983. Applications include the study of the effective effective particle size of cirrus and application toward remote sensing of the ice/water content of cirrus clouds in addition to radiative parameters. Limitations, accuracy and examples of retrievals are presented. In 1997 a space shuttle hitch hiker experiment was flown which included a new technology Infrared Spectral Imaging Radiometer and a laser altimeter for direct cloud height measurements. A 30 orbit data set to test global application of combined spectral infrared and laser height measurements were obtained. Initial results for cirrus analysis from the shuttle experiment will also be presented.

Spinhirne, James D.↗

Aeolus -A Mission to Study the Thermal and Wind Environment of Mars

Aeolus is a small satellite mission to observe surface and atmospheric forcing and general circulation of Mars, by measuring surface energy balance, atmospheric temperatures, aerosols and clouds, and winds. Critically, Aeolus will make these measurements at all local times of day, providing information on both seasonal and diurnal variability. To date, direct measurements of Martian wind speeds have only been possible at the surface, only during daylight hours, and over small areas limited by rover traverse capabilities. From orbit, thermal measurements (e.g., estimates from assumed geostrophic balance) as well as images of dust storms and dune migration have provided inputs to derive current data sets on Martian winds. However, Mars General Circulation models demonstrate that wind speeds derived from these indirect measurements may be in error by 50 to 100%. For this reason, direct wind velocity measurements have been deemed "High Priority" by MEPAG (Mars Exploration Program Analysis Group); measuring wind speeds and corresponding thermal data is vital to understanding the climate of Mars. Aeolus will carry four Spatial Heterodyne Spectrometers (SHS), coupled to two orthogonal viewing telescopes. These high-resolution near-infrared spectrometers will measure CO2 (daytime absorption) and O2 (day and night emission) lines in the Martian atmosphere. Doppler shifts in these lines can be measured during Martian day and night, resolving wind speeds down to ~5 m/s. Orthogonal views allow the spectrometers to capture wind vectors over all observation locations. Aeolus will also carry the atmospheric limb-viewing Thermal Limb Sounder (TLS) to measure atmospheric temperatures, water ice clouds, and dust abundances across all altitudes where winds are measured. Finally, the Surface Radiometric Sensor Package (SuRSeP), a nadir viewing radiometer, will measure the total reflected solar and emitted thermal radiance, surface temperature, and water cloud and dust total column abundances. The combined spectral and thermal measurements will provide a new understanding of the global energy balance, dust transport processes, and climate cycles in the Martian atmosphere. Aeolus will consist of a single satellite in a near-polar orbit, allowing it to pass over all local times, with the baseline mission observing all seasons of an entire Martian year (two Earth years). Aeolus was one of two Martian smallsat concepts selected for study through the Planetary Science Deep Space SmallSat Studies program. This talk will provide an overview of the mission, including science rationale, instruments, spacecraft, and mission operations concept.

and winds↗

Size-resolved process understanding of stratospheric sulfate aerosol following the Pinatubo eruption

Stratospheric sulfate aerosol produced by volcanic eruptions plays important roles in atmospheric chemistry and the global radiative balance of the atmosphere. The simulation of stratospheric sulfate concentrations and optical properties is highly dependent on the chemistry scheme and microphysical treatment. In this work, we implemented a sophisticated gas-phase chemistry scheme (full chemistry, FC) and a 5-mode version of the Modal Aerosol Module with Prognostic Stratospheric Aerosol (MAM5-PSA) for the interactive treatment of stratospheric sulfate aerosol in the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) model to better simulate the chemistry-aerosol feedback following the Pinatubo eruption, and to compare it against a simulation using simplified chemistry (SC) and the default 4-mode version of the Modal Aerosol Module (MAM4). MAM5-PSA experiments were found to better capture the stratospheric sulfate burden from the eruption of the volcano to the end of 1992 as compared to the High-resolution Infrared Sounder (HIRS) observations, and the formation of sulfate in MAM5-PSA with FC (with an additional OH replenishment reaction) was significantly faster than in MAM4 with FC. Analyses of microphysical processes indicate that more sulfate aerosol mass was generated in total in FC experiments than in SC experiments. MAM5-PSA performs better than MAM4 in simulation of aerosol optical depth (AOD); AOD anomalies from the MAM5-PSA experiment have better agreement with observations. The simulated largest changes in global mean net radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere following the eruption were about −3 W m −2 in MAM5-PSA experiments and roughly −1.5 W m −2 in MAM4 experiments.

AEROSOL↗

Exploring Multilayer Network Models to Build a Scientific Basis for Integrated Deterrence: Final Report

The emerging multipolar international security environment represents a fundamental restructuring of global nuclear balance of power to include two nuclear peer competitors, growing non-peer nuclear threats, and concerns of nuclear latency from both allies and adversaries. Conflicts in the grey zone, cyber operations, mis- and disinformation campaigns, and emerging disruptive technologies like drones, and hypersonic missiles are becoming more prevalent. These present a risk of cross-domain and multi-domain conflicts that may not follow known escalatory patterns. In order to prepare for the new deterrence environment, it is critical to have quantitative and qualitative understandings of these cross-domain conflicts, their potential for escalation, and which systems they may impact. To that end, our team created a Multi-Layer Network (MLN) model of ‘integrated deterrence’ where instruments of national power are modeled as individual network graph layers that include efforts from all domains. We then evaluate the potential for escalation against escalation scenarios. Analysis of the escalation scenarios is then used to identify insights of potential risk and escalation within integrated deterrence.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗