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DOE OSTI2021

Technoeconomic Design of a Geothermal-Enabled Cold Climate Zero Energy Community

Development of a zero energy community is more costly in northern cold climates than in moderate regions. Building energy loads are higher, thanks to the colder weather, and site solar photovoltaics (PV) are less productive due to lower solar incidence and misalignment with the buildings’ energy needs (summer production, winter demands). Geothermal energy production can support a zero energy community through application of energy efficiency (demand design), geothermal production (supply design), and asset dispatch as an integrated techno-economic package. This article presents the process used to explore geothermal system integration, our findings, and technical challenges for community-scale adoption of geothermal as an electric and thermal resource. We show that under a wide range of conditions, community-scale geothermal electric power and direct-use thermal energy is economically competitive with “business-as-usual” design and construction practices for zero energy communities. Furthermore, geothermal-produced energy will be self-consumed to a much greater extent than PV, resulting in significant reductions in site energy import and export. We conclude that under appropriate conditions, community-scale geothermal can be the most economically favorable energy resource for northern-climate zero energy community developments. Ongoing geothermal research and development to improve performance and reduce costs will further enhance the value proposition for community-scale geothermal technologies. We expect that including geothermal power and thermal energy in zero energy community design can improve its cost-effectiveness and therefore enhance the benefits of zero energy in more northern climates.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hybrid Natural Gas Geothermal Combined Cycle Power Plant Analysis

Low temperature geothermal resources, including those associated with oil and gas production, are an underutilized source of low carbon energy. The present work investigates coupling of low-temperature geothermal resources with concentrating solar and/or natural gas energy sources to increase the number of locations at which power generation from low temperature geothermal resources would be technically and economically viable. Stand-alone and hybrid geothermal power cycles are simulated using SimTech IPSEpro process modeling software. Design point strategies for a hybrid power cycle that may operate with either a single heat source or two simultaneous heat input sources are considered. Additionally, off-design power plant operation is investigated to consider the impacts of the heat source availability and ambient temperature variations. The off-design analysis utilizes a modeling tool that predicts power plant performance at each time step as a function of topping cycle heat input (from gas or solar), bottoming cycle heat input (from geothermal), and ambient temperature. Addition of a steam topping cycle to an organic Rankine cycle geothermal power plant provides opportunities to increase the efficiency and power output relative to a stand-alone geothermal power plant. Additionally, use of the waste heat from gas turbine power generation in a geothermal bottoming cycle provides opportunities to increase the amount of power generation associated with each unit of carbon dioxide emitted. This paper will describe the hybrid plant configuration evaluated, discuss the predicted power cycle performance, and compare with stand-alone natural gas and geothermal power generation cases. The power cycle investigated is expected to be applicable for use with conventional hydrothermal resources as well as with geologic thermal energy storage applications and/or enhanced geothermal systems. The steam topping cycle could use a concentrated solar heat source for fully renewable hybrid plant configuration. A plant initially constructed with a natural gas topping cycle heat source could be converted to a solar heat source part way though the power cycle operational life to achieve life cycle carbon emission reductions.

concentrating solar power↗

DOE OSTI2021

Establishing a Baseline for Global Geothermal Drilling Rates

Geothermal is a promising source of renewable energy with almost zero emissions. However, there remains untapped geothermal potential around the world. This is largely because geothermal projects have high development costs and high resource-value uncertainty, and returns on initial investments can be slow to materialize. Increasing drilling efficiency of geothermal wells is one way to decrease development costs, as drilling accounts for up to 50% of the upfront costs of a geothermal power project. Currently, little quantitative information exists about how fast geothermal drilling occurs on a global scale. This paper was originally intended to be an extension of Frone and Boyd's 2018 report on geothermal drilling rates in California and Nevada. Our project includes global data and considers additional measures, such as flat time. Data for the project was limited to published papers and drilling reports that are publicly available online. The goal of our project was to establish a baseline geothermal drilling rate that is representative of current global geothermal drilling practices can be used to gauge the impact of future improvements in geothermal drilling technology. We recorded the number of days from beginning to end of a project, the number of days spent drilling, and the number of days considered to be flat time. We found the average global rate at which a drilling project is completed (including non-drilling activities) to be 160 ft/day, and the average drilling rate (including only time during which active drilling occurred) to be 360 ft/day. Our data shows no clear trend in rate change from 2000 to 2017 and significant variability in drilling rates between countries and within countries.

baseline↗

DOE OSTI2022

2022 GETEM Geothermal Drilling Cost Curve Update

The Geothermal Electricity Technology Evaluation Model (GETEM) is an essential tool for the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) to understand the performance and cost of technologies it is seeking to improve. This detailed model is used for supply curve analyses, assessing the current economic feasibility and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of hydrothermal geothermal systems and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), and evaluating the potential impact of advanced geothermal technologies. GETEM can be used to estimate the performance and costs of currently available U.S. geothermal power systems. It is also used to estimate the costs of technologies 5 to 20 years in the future, given the direction of potential research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) projects. The model is intended to help GTO determine which proposed RD&D programs and projects might offer the most efficient improvement when using taxpayer funding. The model requires annual updates as well as revisions to reflect the current state of the art. Drilling costs are a significant portion of total geothermal development costs. The current GETEM drilling cost inputs rely on drilling data from 2009 and require an updated analysis of more recent data to ensure they remain representative of current technologies. An updated, more accurate understanding of costs could help the geothermal industry secure project development financing and investment funding and better allow the oil and gas (O&G) industry (both operators and service companies) to weigh potential geothermal market participation and customization. This report details recent drilling improvements from the Utah Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE) and the O&G sector, comparing drilling performance and costs with values in GETEM, particularly the baseline drilling cost curves. Although drilling performance at FORGE has improved significantly, we did not find associated cost decreases that would justify lowering the GETEM baseline cost curves at this time.

API↗

DOE OSTI2023

Topics and Considerations for Developing State Geothermal Regulations

The intent of this document is to provide guidance to states for developing geothermal regulations that would be inclusive of all geothermal technologies (e.g., conventional and non-conventional power production and direct-use applications) with applicability in all states. As part of this project, the NREL project team reviewed and catalogued existing state and federal geothermal regulations, compiled best practices from geothermal and other extractive industries, and established a Geothermal Regulatory Stakeholder Working Group (SWG) to advise and review the geothermal regulatory guidance. The SWG met approximately monthly over the course of one year to review and discuss specific topics as relevant to this geothermal regulatory guidance. This report is broken into five main sections, which were identified in coordination with the SWG as the main topics for inclusion. Within these sections, a list of considerations within each category were identified and, in some cases, relevant examples from existing state and federal geothermal regulations are included to further illustrate the proposed considerations. This report includes the following topics: 1) Geothermal Resource Definition; 2) Leasing process; 3) Exploration approval process; 4) Drilling/wellfield development approval process; 5) Underground injection control process In addition, a list of 'key considerations' summarized from this report are included below. This list is not meant to be exhaustive as each state's regulatory landscape is unique, rather these are meant to be concepts that can be considered when developing and/or updating existing geothermal regulations.

drilling↗

DOE OSTI2023

Low-Temperature Geothermal Resources: Relevant Data and PFA Methods to Reduce Development Risk: Preprint

This project is part of a larger national effort focused on demonstrating the multi-faceted value of integrating low-temperature geothermal resources into national decarbonization strategies and community energy plans. Low-temperature geothermal resources are defined as reservoirs-natural or engineered-with temperatures < 150 degrees C. While the focus in the NREL effort is on geothermal heating and cooling (GHC), resources at the upper end of this temperature range can also be used for small-scale power generation. However, low-temperature geothermal resources have not been studied as extensively as higher-temperature geothermal resources. We identified three major classes of low-temperature geothermal play types: sedimentary basins, orogenic systems, and radiogenic systems. We developed workflows for evaluating the potential of these resources building off the Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) approach to de-risking geothermal exploration. This PFA-based approach to low-temperature geothermal resources includes: (1) identifying relevant data; (2) grouping and weighting of relevant datasets into PFA criteria (e.g., geological, risk, economic criteria); (3) developing favorability or common risk maps for low-temperature geothermal resources to identify potential locations for more focused data collection; and (4) estimating electric power generation and heating potential at those locations using the GeoRePORT Resource Size Assessment Tool. This project will facilitate future deployment of GHC by providing data, tools, and workflows applicable to low-temperature geothermal resources.

favorability maps↗

DOE OSTI2023

Low-Temperature Geothermal Resources: Relevant Data and PFA Methods to Reduce Development Risk

favorability maps↗

DOE OSTI2026

National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) 2025 U.S. Geothermal Market Report

The 2025 U.S. Geothermal Market Report updates and expands on the 2021 U.S. Geothermal Power Production and District Heating Market Report with the inclusion of geothermal heat pumps (GHPs) for both distributed and centralized heating and cooling applications. The report updates technology and cost trends in the geothermal power generation industry as well as an uptick in market activities, especially those of next-generation geothermal power technologies, including enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) and closed-loop geothermal (CLG). This report also tracks policy and market drivers that have influenced the direction and growth pace of the U.S. geothermal industry over the years, and especially since 2020.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Reservoir Characterization and Techno-Economic Analysis of Enhanced Geothermal and Closed-Loop Systems in the Wattenberg Field of the Denver-Julesburg Basin, Colorado

This report provides details of reservoir characterization and techno-economic analysis for enhanced geothermal systems and closed-loop geothermal systems in the Denver-Julesburg Basin Wattenberg area. The analysis contributes to the Geothermal Limitless Approach to Drilling Efficiencies (GLADE) project, a multi-institutional research initiative focused on advancing geothermal energy development by reducing drilling costs and improving the rate of penetration. The GLADE project brings together national laboratories, academic institutions, and industry partners, including the U.S. Department of Energy's Geothermal Technologies Office, Occidental Petroleum, the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR), Los Alamos National Laboratory, Colorado School of Mines, Louisiana State University, Texas A&M University, and several drilling technology companies. As part of this effort, NLR developed and applied slender-body theory modeling tools and the GEOPHIRES simulator to support techno-economic analysis. The slender-body theory wellbore simulator evaluated thermal performance in U-loop, Eavor-type multilateral, and enhanced geothermal system well configurations. Results indicated that an optimized single U-loop design delivers an outlet temperature of 168.8 degrees Celsius,stabilizing at a final outlet temperature of 135.3 degrees Celsius. Heat production also improved significantly, with an average thermal output of 16.9 MWth and a final thermal output of 11.0 MWth. These results provided critical baseline data for selecting optimized systems for techno-economic analysis. Building on these outputs, NLR applied the GEOPHIRES techno-economic simulator to estimate the levelized cost of electricity for both the Eavor multilateral and enhanced geothermal systems. The sensitivity analysis showed that drilling costs exert a particularly strong impact on the levelized cost of electricity of multilateral systems. Therefore, advances in drilling technology and improved drilling rates could yield significant gains in the economic performance of these systems. In this context, the GLADE project directly supports the U.S. Department of Energy's mission to reduce the cost of geothermal energy and accelerate the deployment of next-generation geothermal technologies.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

The evolving role of geothermal energy for decarbonizing the United States

Geothermal energy is often referred to as a niche technology that is too localized, too small or too expensive to make much of a difference in how renewable energy will be supplied in a fully decarbonized future. As a result, geothermal energy has been undervalued in terms of what it could provide to complement, rather than compete with, electricity generation from wind, solar photovoltaic, concentrating solar power and other renewables. Geothermal energy systems are fully dispatchable and can provide baseload or load-following electric power or heat suitable for a wide range of applications including supplying district heating for communities and cities, and heating and cooling of individual buildings. The focus of our study is on the potential of utilizing geothermal energy for providing heat for buildings and industry at lower temperatures, a substitute for the combustion of fossil fuels. Because heating represents about 20% (20 EJ per year) of the annual primary energy consumption in the U.S.—with most of it coming from burning natural gas, oil and/or propane in furnaces—deploying geothermal heating on a national scale could have a significant impact on lowering carbon emissions. In heating-dominated states in the U.S. Northern Tier, heating often is among the largest contributors to the state's carbon footprint. This review begins with a discussion of the motivation and rationale behind considering geothermal as a key low-carbon heating option for the U.S. The study summarizes the U.S. geothermal resource and describes the applications and main engineering components of using geothermal energy for heating and cooling, electric power generation, and co-generation using district heating, geothermal heat pumps, and power conversion with steam flashing and organic Rankine plants. Environmental benefits and impacts are described. An extensive discussion of geologic and thermal-hydraulic aspects of the subsurface is included in the review because of their critical role in determining reservoir designs at specific sites to ensure sufficient productivity that is both safe and economically viable. Models for estimating levelized costs of district heating are used to show how costs are affected by reservoir performance, infrastructure capital costs, and financial parameters. Here, the review concludes with an assessment of technical subsurface issues associated with reservoir performance and the economic requirements for providing geothermal heating in district heating systems at a sufficient scale to have an impact on decarbonizing the U.S.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Thermocatalytic Heat Pipes for Geothermal Resource Recovery

Heat pipes are an important technology that allow orders of magnitude faster heat transfer than simple conduction. However, operating principles in heat pipes place fundamental bounds on their performance (critical heat flux and efficiency). Conventional heat pipe functionality is inherently tied to vaporization and condensation of the working fluid charged in the heat pipe. These fluids each have different operating temperature ranges based on the capillary, entrainment, sonic, and boiling limits of the heat pipe design. These limits, typically the capillary limit, dictate the maximum heat flux a heat pipe can carry, and most importantly for geothermal systems, the distance over which the pipes can operate (100 to 200 m maximum under optimum conditions). A thermocatalytic heat pipe breaks the inherent limitations of phase change thermo- and hydrodynamics and can transform heat pipe technology as a potentially more efficient means of extracting heat from a geothermal resource. The thermocatalytic heat pipe uses a working fluid to transport both sensible and chemical heat. An endothermic chemical reaction at depth removes heat from the reservoir and produces reactive intermediates, which are transported to the surface and used to run a reverse exothermic reaction that releases heat for use in power generation or other useful purposes. This technology offers two distinct advantages over conventional geothermal heat recovery technologies: (1) lower heat loss to the rock outside of the geothermal reservoir, and (2) higher heat transfer rates to the well field within the geothermal reservoir. Both advantages offer opportunity to reduce risks and lower costs of geothermal energy recovery. In this report, we discuss an initial effort to assess the efficacy and limitations of this technology for extracting heat from both porous/permeable and nominally impermeable geothermal reservoirs. Numerical simulation capabilities of the STOMP-GT code were enhanced to enable simulations of thermochemical heat pipes traversing geothermal reservoirs. An array of potential thermochemical reaction systems was evaluated and screened. Of these, an ethanol dehydration reaction was most promising in the vapor-liquid reaction set. A solid-phase dehydration reaction (CuSO4·5H2O) showed the highest reaction enthalpy per unit volume but would require development of a nonaqueous carrier fluid to implement it in a heat pipe. Subsurface reservoir simulations predicted long-term performance of the heat pipes for each geothermal reservoir type. The performance of U-shaped wells and coaxial wells was evaluated for a suite of reactions for both hydrothermal and hot dry rock reservoirs and was compared with a baseline case of simply pumping water through the wells. The heat pipe technology was additionally evaluated for an enhanced geothermal system (EGS) with an injection borehole, production borehole, and intervening hydraulically conductive fracture. All reservoir types showed significant improvement in heat recovered over a 20-year operating period ranging from a 1.8X increase for the hot dry rock case to more than 2.5X more energy recovered for the EGS case.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Advancing Understanding of Geothermal Representation in the Power Sector to Accelerate Deployment

Driven mostly by decarbonization goals, geothermal interest in the US power sector has grown considerably, gradually evolving from being considered a niche technology, to being recognized as a viable source of clean, baseload, grid-balancing power, and renewable electric power generation. Furthermore, recent technical advances that could greatly accelerate deployment in the near future, and US federal incentives for low-carbon generation technologies, including geothermal, can enable opportunities for integrating geothermal into utilities resource planning portfolios. However, in general, utilities do not have in-house expertise to evaluate geothermal technologies and its potential role in helping decarbonize the grid as well as help them achieve their individual decarbonization goals. To date, geothermal is rarely included in Capacity Expansion Models (CEM) which utilities use in their planning activities and resource/technologies prioritization. To this end, EPRI and NREL are working together in a DOE-GTO funded research project to improve geothermal understanding (opportunities, value, risks) among the power industry to help accelerate geothermal deployment. In the present paper we describe the approach and preliminary findings of this work, focused on two topics: 1) Expand the degree of understanding on the value, opportunity, and risk of geothermal technologies among utilities and related companies/groups, specifically around geothermal for power generation. 2) Improve representation of geothermal power technologies in capacity expansion models (CEM).

capacity expansion models↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hot Springs and Geysers: Exploring Historical and Modern Impacts of Geothermal Energy Production on Associated Natural Surface Systems and Standardizing Management Practices

Surface thermal features, most notably hot springs and geysers are increasingly being recognized for their importance to ecosystems, indigenous cultures, and in some cases agriculture, recreation, and tourism. Geothermal project development poses a potential risk to these natural features but current regulatory requirements for assessing and managing these risks during exploration, permitting and monitoring are somewhat inconsistent and unpredictable across different geothermal fields. This has resulted in uncertainty and increases in exploration risk for geothermal energy developers that have led to costly project delays, cancellations, or hesitation to commit. Varying regulatory requirements may also influence public perception, fostering confusion, distrust and ultimately opposition to geothermal projects, further contributing to project delays or cancellations. At a time when there is an increasing urgency for reliable baseload clean energy, geothermal is a net-zero, renewable solution that additionally provides access to more equitable and environmentally just clean power. Continued integration of geothermal energy into the national energy roadmap can be facilitated through consistent and predictable permitting, providing regulators the framework they need, developers a clear path forward, and transparency that the public deserves. This project, currently in its beginning phases, seeks to address this important issue by providing a technical basis from which to build a preliminary protocol for assessing and managing potential impacts from new or existing geothermal energy projects to surface thermal features and their associated ecosystems. Development of this preliminary protocol will be informed by (1) a literature review of well-documented case studies in the western U.S. and New Zealand to understand the range of conditions that exemplify geothermal-surface thermal systems; (2) development of generic illustrative conceptual-numerical models to quantify, understand, and predict the first-order controls (e.g., pressure and permeability) on surface flows; and (3) additional independent and scientifically rigorous evaluations of geothermal-surface thermal system case studies from the Basin and Range Province that incorporate publicly available data as well as data provided by industry through data-sharing agreements. Learning from the successes of the process used to develop the Induced Seismicity Management Protocol (ISMP), we ultimately aim to use these initial efforts as a springboard for establishing a surface thermal feature management working group that will work collaboratively to finalize the protocol as well as co-create recommended best practices for implementation. We envision that the working group will primarily be composed of representatives from regulatory entities, government agencies, Tribes, academia, national laboratories, and industry, and will include early and regular engagement with community organizations and environmental groups. This will help ensure broad acceptance and implementation of the protocol, which will facilitate a more consistent, predictable, and standardized regulatory process, and help to ensure that geothermal energy continues to provide a reliable source of clean energy, and a pathway to achieving greater energy equity in the U.S.

Best Practices↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessing Low-Temperature Geothermal Play Types: Relevant Data and Play Fairway Analysis Methods

This data catalog contains information on low temperature geothermal play types. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) supports the Geothermal Heating and Cooling Geospatial Datasets and Analysis project, conducted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). This project is part of a broader effort to demonstrate the multifaceted value of integrating geothermal power and geothermal heating and cooling technologies into national decarbonization strategies and community energy plans. There is a need to establish baseline low-temperature geothermal resource data sets and evaluate methods for deploying these technologies. This project aims to reduce exploration risk of low temperature geothermal systems by collecting baseline datasets that can be used for Play Fairway Analysis methodologies. This data catalog contains links to publicly available datasets from different sources that can be relevant for the low temperature geothermal systems. This submission contains data catalogs for Alaska, Hawaii, and the Conterminous United States, as well as a technical report on the methods used to classify and asses the geothermal play types.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Machine Learning for Geothermal Resource Exploration in the Tularosa Basin, New Mexico

Geothermal energy is considered an essential renewable resource to generate flexible electricity. Geothermal resource assessments conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey showed that the southwestern basins in the U.S. have a significant geothermal potential for meeting domestic electricity demand. Within these southwestern basins, play fairway analysis (PFA), funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Geothermal Technologies Office, identified that the Tularosa Basin in New Mexico has significant geothermal potential. This short communication paper presents a machine learning (ML) methodology for curating and analyzing the PFA data from the DOE’s geothermal data repository. The proposed approach to identify potential geothermal sites in the Tularosa Basin is based on an unsupervised ML method called non-negative matrix factorization with custom k-means clustering. This methodology is available in our open-source ML framework, GeoThermalCloud (GTC). Using this GTC framework, we discover prospective geothermal locations and find key parameters defining these prospects. Our ML analysis found that these prospects are consistent with the existing Tularosa Basin’s PFA studies. This instills confidence in our GTC framework to accelerate geothermal exploration and resource development, which is generally time-consuming.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Geothermal Collegiate Competition: Evolution and Impact

In 2010, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced the launch of its inaugural National Geothermal Student Competition. The competition was open to all colleges, universities, and other post-secondary institutions in the United States, and was labeled as the first-ever to address geothermal education. The GeoVision, published in 2019 by the Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO), stated that improving geothermal energy education and outreach is critical in reducing risks and costs of geothermal technology deployment. The key actions included improving public education and outreach about geothermal energy and providing resources intended to attract and inform a skilled geothermal workforce. Student competitions in particular have the ability to increase awareness of renewable energy fields by engaging multi-disciplinary students in compelling design challenges to prepare them for careers in renewable energy. GTO, in partnership with an administration team at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), currently supports the Geothermal Collegiate Competition (GCC), with the main objective of advancing and cultivating collegiate student knowledge and career interest in geothermal energy. The administrating team works toward growing the number of students and collegiate institutions engaged, as well as diversifying the scope of the student design challenges. The main intentions of this publication are documenting the competition’s evolution, setting a baseline for future GCC impact analysis and serving as a guide to other students’ competition design committees looking for ideas to capture and increase the interest of students in collegiate competitions.

Geothermal Collegiate Competition↗

DOE OSTI2025

Experimental investigation of flow distribution in enhanced geothermal systems with deep eutectic solvent

Geothermal energy has been recognized as a valuable alternative to fossil fuels and nuclear power, as it is renewable and reliable. Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGSs) have the potential to expand geothermal energy production by enabling access to previously untapped geothermal resources. Geothermal short-circuiting poses a significant challenge to EGS development, leading to reduced heat extraction. Deep Eutectic Solvent (DES) exhibits favorable thermal and rheological properties, making it a candidate for geothermal applications. Here, this paper examines Choline Chloride-Based Deep Eutectic Solvent (DES) as a working fluid in geothermal applications and its potential to mitigate geothermal short-circuiting. Hydraulic experiments using a dual fracture flow loop were conducted at high temperatures. The results showed that DES exhibited higher differential pressure behavior compared to water. Flow distribution results revealed that DES enhances flow allocation within the small fracture, particularly when a temperature difference exists between fractures. Specifically, DES increased flow distribution by an average of 11% when the temperature difference was 85°C, and by 13% when the difference was 45°C, relative to water. These findings suggest that DES responds to thermal fracture differences, making it a potential remedy to address geothermal short-circuiting.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Discovering Hidden Geothermal Signatures using Unsupervised Machine Learning

Discovering hidden geothermal resources is a very challenging task. It requires the mining of large datasets, including various diverse data attributes representing subsurface hydrogeological and geothermal conditions. The commonly used Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) typically relies on subject-matter expertise to analyze site or regional data to estimate geothermal conditions and prospectivity. Here, we demonstrate an alternative approach based on machine learning (ML) to process a geothermal dataset of Southwest New Mexico (SWNM). The study region includes low- and medium-temperature hydrothermal systems. However, most of these systems are poorly characterized because of insufficient existing data and limited past explorative studies. This study aims to discover hidden patterns and relationships in the SWNM geothermal dataset to better understand regional hydrothermal conditions. This is achieved by applying an unsupervised machine learning algorithm based on non-negative matrix factorization coupled with customized k-means clustering (NMFk). NMFk can automatically identify (1) hidden (latent) signatures characterizing datasets, (2) the optimal number of these signatures, (3) dominant data attributes associated with each signature, and (4) spatial distribution of the extracted signatures. Here, NMFk is applied to analyze 18 geological, geophysical, hydrogeological, geothermal attributes at 44 locations in SWNM. NMFk successfully finds data patterns and identifies the spatial associations of hydrothermal signatures with the four physiographic provinces in SWNM (Colorado Plateau, Volcanic Field, Basin and Range, and the Rio Grande rift). The algorithm identified up to 5 hydrothermal signatures in the SWNM datasets that differentiate between low- and medium-temperature hydrothermal systems in different provinces. Also, the algorithm identifies two medium-temperature hydrothermal systems in SWNM that require further exploration for geothermal resource development. Based on our analyses, 12 of the attributes are important to identify medium-temperature hydrothermal systems, and the remaining six attributes are critical to characterize low-temperature hydrothermal systems. Based on the obtained results, we identify potential physiographic provinces for further exploration to characterize them as geothermal resources. The resulting NMFk model can be applied to predict geothermal conditions and their uncertainties at new SWNM locations based on limited data from unexplored areas.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗