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At least 91 records · Page 5

Modeling Electric Vehicle Charging Station Siting Suitability with a Focus on Equity

As adoption of electric vehicles increases, the infrastructure to charge them must keep pace. Determining where to add new charging infrastructure is a complex process subject to many factors, including electrical service availability, vehicle dwell time, the type(s) of drivers and vehicles the stations will serve, traffic levels and timing, and land ownership. In addition, advancing social equity is a current priority of federal efforts to invest in electric vehicle charging infrastructure. Conducting Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) within Argonne’s Energy Zones Mapping Tool (EZMT) is a useful method for analyzing many of the factors that influence how suitable a location is for potentially adding new charging infrastructure, and we show how equity metrics can be included in the analysis. However, data limitations impose challenges to using MCDA to evaluate and prioritize locations. We use three examples to demonstrate how to use publicly available data and MDCA to analyze different siting objectives. Each example starts with defining a specific objective and ends with how to use the results to identify specific potential locations that could be investigated further. This analysis demonstrates how interested stakeholders can use the EZMT to run the example MCDA models defined in this study, modify them to suit their needs, or create new MCDA models.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Hybrid Floating Solar Photovoltaics-Hydropower Systems: Benefits and Global Assessment of Technical Potential

Floating solar photovoltaics (FPV) is an emerging, and increasingly viable, application of photovoltaics (PV) in which systems are sited directly on waterbodies. Despite growing market interest, FPV system deployment is nascent, and potential adopters remain concerned about the technology, the benefits it offers, the advantages to pairing it in hybrid systems (such as with hydropower), and how to analyze technical potential. To support decision making, we provide a review of associated benefits of hybrid FPV-hydropower system operation and a novel, geospatial approach to assess the global technical potential of these systems employing publicly available, global datasets. We identify significant potential globally for FPV hybridized with hydropower ranging from 3.0?TW to 7.6?TW (4,251?TWh to 10,616?TWh annual generation), based on the assumptions made. We detail operational benefits that these hybrid systems may provide that could be quantified in future modeling and/or analyses of existing or planned hybrid systems.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Evaluating the Interplay between Trajectory Segmentation and Mode Inference Error

Travel behavior changes are essential to transportation decarbonization. Travel diaries, consisting of sequences of trips between places, are typically used to instrument human travel behavior. However, these diaries are only as accurate as the underlying methods used to construct them. Travel diary algorithms have been a popular research topic since the advent of Global Positioning System tracking surveys. These algorithms have typically been validated using prompted recall of presegmented trips, thus disregarding the continuity of mode inference. Phone operating systems have adopted battery-conserving techniques, but the resulting data collection errors have not been studied extensively. We introduce a framework to evaluate the accuracy of trip length computations and mode inference by analyzing continuous mode-segmented trajectories for groups of trips. We then use the framework to identify the input data quality and the impact of postprocessing. Our primary inputs to this evaluation are MobilityNet, a public dataset containing information from three artificial timelines covering 15 different travel modes, and sample open-source travel diary creation algorithms from the OpenPATH project. Our framework concretely shows that the variance of the distance error drops from (0.217, 0.0848) to (o.011, 0.0407) (Android, iOS) after postprocessing. Similarly, the weighted F-scores for mode inference increase from (0.25, 0.29) to (0.60, 0.74) (iOS, Android) between random forest and geographic information system-based models. We hope that this standardized method will be adapted to evaluate other, potentially proprietary, travel diary algorithms. Finally, the results can be used to understand and improve the state of the art in the travel diary creation field.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Interactive Web Application for Traffic Simulation Data Management and Visualization

As traffic simulation software becomes more effective for realistically simulating and analyzing traffic dynamics and vehicle interactions on the mesoscopic and microscopic level, the management, dissemination, and collaborative visualization of traffic simulation results produced by individual transportation planners presents a significant challenge. Existing online content management systems have a very limited capability in allowing users to query specific traffic simulation scenarios and geospatially visualize simulation results through shareable and interactive web interfaces. This paper presents a web-based application for promoting the archiving, sharing, and visualization of large-scale traffic simulation outputs. The application is developed to enhance cyber-physical controls, communications, and public education for collaborative transportation planning. Unique features of the web application include: (a) allowing users to upload their new traffic simulation scenarios (parameters and outputs), as well as search existing scenarios using easily accessible interfaces; (b) optimizing simulation output files with heterogeneous data formats and projected coordinate systems for web-based storage and management using a scalable and searchable data/metadata standard; (c) standardizing user-uploaded simulation outputs using web interfaces and data processing libraries with parallel computing capacity; and (d) providing shareable web visual interfaces for visualizing the traffic flow and signal information stored in simulation outputs (e.g., regional traffic patterns and individual vehicle interactions) and visually comparing multiple simulation outputs both spatially and temporally. Furthermore, the paper presents the conceptual design and implementation of this application, and demonstrates the application’s performance for sharing, comparing, and visualizing simulation outputs from VISSIM and SUMO, two commonly used traffic simulation software programs.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

National population mapping from sparse survey data: A hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework to account for uncertainty

Population estimates are critical for government services, development projects, and public health campaigns. Such data are typically obtained through a national population and housing census. However, population estimates can quickly become inaccurate in localized areas, particularly where migration or displacement has occurred. Some conflict-affected and resource-poor countries have not conducted a census in over 10 y. We developed a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate population numbers in small areas based on enumeration data from sample areas and nationwide information about administrative boundaries, building locations, settlement types, and other factors related to population density. We demonstrated this model by estimating population sizes in every 10- m grid cell in Nigeria with national coverage. These gridded population estimates and areal population totals derived from them are accompanied by estimates of uncertainty based on Bayesian posterior probabilities. The model had an overall error rate of 67 people per hectare (mean of absolute residuals) or 43% (using scaled residuals) for predictions in out-of-sample survey areas (approximately 3 ha each), with increased precision expected for aggregated population totals in larger areas. This statistical approach represents a significant step toward estimating populations at high resolution with national coverage in the absence of a complete and recent census, while also providing reliable estimates of uncertainty to support informed decision making.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

InSAR Monitoring to Evaluate Surface Changes with CO 2 Storage in a Depleted Oil Field in Northern Michigan

Battelle evaluated the potential use of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) for monitoring the outcome of injected CO 2 at the Dover 33 reef near Gaylord, Michigan. InSAR is a satellite-based technology that provides high-precision information on the movement of ground surface in areas with high radar coherence (e.g., roads, buildings, bare soils). Depending on the setting, this technique may provide a useful tool for characterizing reservoirs by measuring surface deformations from activities such as brine water disposal; production of water, oil, and/or gas; and carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS).

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

InSAR Monitoring to Evaluate Surface Changes with CO 2 Storage in a Depleted Oil Field in Northern Michigan (Volume II.E)

The Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) was founded in 2003 as part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership initiative. Since its founding, MRCSP has made significant strides toward making CCUS a viable option for states in the region. The public/private consortium, funded through the DOE Regional Carbon Sequestration Initiative, brings together nearly 40 industry partners and 10 states. Battelle, as the project lead, oversees research, development and operations and coordinates activities among the partners. The incremental, phased approach has built a valuable knowledge base for the industry and paved the way for commercial-scale adoption of CCUS technologies. From 2008 to 2020, MRCSP Phase III focused on the development of large-scale injection projects. This report is part of a series of reports prepared under the Midwestern Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) Phase III (Development Phase). These reports summarize and detail the findings of the work conducted under the Phase III project. This report describes the effort under MRCP to evaluate the potential use of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) for monitoring the outcome of injected CO 2 at the Dover 33 reef near Gaylord, Michigan. InSAR is a satellite-based technology that provides high-precision information on the movement of ground surface in areas with high radar coherence (e.g., roads, buildings, bare soils). Depending on the setting, this technique may provide a useful tool for characterizing reservoirs by measuring surface deformations from activities such as brine water disposal; production of water, oil, and/or gas; and carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

c-HAND: near real-time coastal flood mapping

The Texas Gulf Coast region contains significant centers of population, infrastructure, and economy and is threatened by intensifying tropical storms. The flooding from these tropical storms often has multiple compounding drivers. This characteristic presents a complex numerical problem where a simulation must consider multiple hydrologic forcings. While several procedures exist for addressing this problem numerically, they tend to be resource-intensive and cannot be conducted in near real-time. We extend GeoFlood, a reduced physics approach for fluvial flood forecasting, to rapidly predict coastal and compound fluvial-coastal inundation. This method is validated against a numerical ocean circulation model (ADCIRC) simulation of Hurricane Ike, a major coastal flooding event that happened on the Texas Gulf Coast in 2008. We show that the inundation map generated by coastal HAND (c-HAND) has reasonable agreement with the ADCIRC simulation while taking about 1.7% of the time currently needed to run ADCIRC on a supercomputer. While our model correctly predicts 99% of ADCIRC-inundated DEM cells, it also overpredicts inundated area by a factor of approximately 27%. We combine c-HAND with the GeoFlood framework for fluvial flood forecasting to create a compound fluvial-coastal inundation mapping workflow that can be run in near real-time. c-HAND's fast wall-clock time and low CPU requirements can support decision making by first response personnel. The method provides timely and convenient access to crucial information, such as the locations of flooded roads and inundated coastal areas.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Status Update on TRAC: A DOE-EM Tool for Tracking Groundwater Cleanup and Progress Toward Site Closure - 20245

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Environmental Management (EM) uses a customized, web-based mapping tool called TRAC (Tracking Restoration and Closure) to communicate information on plume sizes, remedial approaches, regulatory drivers, exit strategies, and long-term stewardship requirements at all sites within the DOE-EM complex. The web-based GIS story maps provide robust geospatial visualization of plumes at DOE sites using an intuitive interface that allows users to explore the plume maps, explanatory text, photographs, and video. This collection of story maps not only communicates information for each individual site, but also summarizes pertinent metrics on cleanup and remaining contaminants across all EM sites. This paper describes a new design within TRAC for communicating metrics on plume status, regulatory cleanup progress, and technology implementation. A principal benefit of TRAC is the ability to view individual pieces of data at a time, permitting targeted questions to be addressed, such as the status of regulatory decisions, site cleanup priorities, and site closure needs for each site within the DOE-EM complex. TRAC manages communication and supports decision-making through knowledge access, data and information transparency and traceability, and inclusive participation. It serves as a common resource that provides consistent information for DOE managers, site personnel, regulators and stakeholders. Because long-term stewardship of legacy waste sites requires ongoing coordination and communication among DOE, regulators, and stakeholders, TRAC can also be used to help transition EM sites to the Office of Legacy Management at site closure. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

GIS-Based Modeling of Contaminated Soil Volumes at Multiple Sites in the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program - 20149

The remediation of hazardous, toxic, and radioactive waste (HTRW) sites produces cost-related risks associated with the estimation of contaminated soil or debris volumes. Historical risk-management techniques include cost contingencies to cover volume uncertainties that affect project budgeting and decision-making. The Buffalo District teamed with project partners to lessen volume uncertainty and reduce project risks at multiple HTRW sites managed under the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP). Historical remedial investigations under FUSRAP commonly identified the presence of radiological material in site media, the associated human health risk, and then areas of remediation. To manage remedial execution and reduce risk, pre-design or remediation-phase sampling essentially 'chased' contamination, which was not conducive to efficient predictive budgeting derived from Feasibility Study (FS) cost analyses. The Buffalo District first optimized their approach to better understand volume uncertainty by utilizing the Argonne National Laboratory's Bayesian Approaches for Adaptive Spatial Sampling (BAASS) software [1]. BAASS processed soft data (e.g., gamma walk-over data) and spatial sampling data to estimate the lateral extent of contaminated soil irrespective of depth (i.e., gross contamination extent) and define areas of contaminant uncertainty. The software performed a binary transformation of contaminant concentrations at all sampling points based upon remedial action goals or a sum of ratios approach (i.e., clean, impacted, or range of impacts in soil). The model produced two-dimensional (horizontal) contaminant probability contours and statistical uncertainty in the sampling coverage and resulting contaminant extents. This method was translated vertically by partitioning the sampling data into depth brackets that produced a stacked representation of contaminant extents and uncertainty in the subsurface (i.e., similar to construction lifts). The results commonly led to a better understanding of project uncertainty and the need for sampling strategies that produce high-confidence soil volumes, which control costs. The BAASS-based delineations were eventually replaced by Empirical Bayesian Kriging (EBK) methods available in ArcGIS Spatial or 3D Analysts [2]. The EBK method calculates contaminant probability zones derived from user-controlled semivariograms of the spatial datasets. The resulting probability zones (e.g., 50% or 80% of contaminant probability) represent the two-dimensional surface delineation of the overall horizontal remedial area, similarly to BAASS. However, unlike BAASS, the vertical sampling data within these probability zones became vertical control points to contour a subterranean surface that connects subsurface points to the land-surface delineations of contamination. The resulting representation of horizontal and vertical impacts within an enclosed envelop (volume) of soil included uncertainty distributions that are used to plan uncertainty-reduction sampling. These data-driven and math-based models of three-dimensional sampling results produced well-bounded remedial volumes for project planning and better uncertainty predictions during project budgeting. The EBK method was applied to several FUSRAP sites managed by the Buffalo District and compared to less rigorously modeled sites previously remediated by the District. The comparison of modeled to actual remediated volumes provide a basis for validating the volume-estimation method. This comparison is important to ensure modeled volumes match physical boundaries of site remediation. FUSRAP sites with denser investigative sampling and lesser volume uncertainty proved useful in remedial planning and contracting. The Buffalo District noted that historical sites with sparser sampling arrays had greater disparity between estimated volumes and final remedial volumes. The benefit achieved over the cost of detailed soil sampling appears positive for FUSRAP projects, especially where impacts vary widely and appear unbounded by investigation-phase sampling. The subsequent Empirical Bayesian Kriging of contamination coupled with vertical contouring for soil estimations reduces uncertainty in soil volumes or indicates where sampling is required to reduce uncertainty, which together optimize remedial planning and budgeting. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Evaluation of Extreme Weather Impacts on Utility-scale Photovoltaic Plant Performance in the United States

The global energy system is undergoing significant changes, including a shift in energy generating technologies to more renewable energy sources. However, the dependence of renewable energy sources on local environmental conditions could also increase disruptions in service through exposures to compound, extreme weather events. By fusing three diverse datasets (operations and maintenance tickets, weather data, and production data), this analysis presents a novel methodology to identify and evaluate performance impacts arising from extreme weather events across diverse geographical regions. Text analysis of maintenance tickets identified snow, hurricanes, and storms as the leading extreme weather events affecting photovoltaic plants in the United States. Statistical techniques and machine learning were then implemented to identify the magnitude and variability of these extreme weather impacts on site performance. Impacts varied between event and non-event days, with snow events causing the greatest reductions in performance (54.5%), followed by hurricanes (12.6%) and storms (1.1%). Machine learning analysis identified key features in determining if a day is categorized as low performing, such as low irradiance, geographic location, weather features, and site size. The analysis improves our understanding of compound, extreme weather event impacts on photovoltaic systems, which can inform planning activities, especially as the industry continues to expand into new geographic and climatic regions around the world.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Human Supervision of Autonomous Vehicle Fleet Operations and Associated Passenger Communications: Preprint

Advances in automated vehicle (AV) technology and expanded operations are rapidly emerging with Automated Mobility District (AMD) deployments in global cities. NLR's AMD research addresses critical elements of human supervision of AV fleet operations and associated passenger communications for vehicles in which no driver or safety attendant is present. Although sufficiently advanced AVs no longer have direct oversight by a driver, fleet management remains staffed with operations personnel at the operations command and control (OCC) facility. This paper examines the functionality of the OCC, drawing comparisons of how automated train control and automated people mover OCCs operate. Within an AMD, the OCC manages various vehicle types, sizes, and operational modes, including on-demand and fixed route service, to facilitate a 'network of networks' for transport within a metropolitan area. The OCC serves as oversight for multiple AV fleets assisting AVs via remote operation of vehicles, communication, and dispatching personnel to resolve problems. The OCC also coordinates system operation, geographically staging vehicles, and managing weather, police, and emergency events. Informed by traffic management center (TMC) strategies using highly integrated software and communications, OCCs facilitate seamless information flows. OCC personnel remotely assist passengers and oversee multi-party operation to ensure safety and security. Although social norms mitigate large-capacity unattended vehicle operations, social interaction in multi-party automated small vehicles has little precedent. This poses a new frontier for society and requires research to effectively understand and manage. Future research will monitor OCC implementations, passenger interfaces, and deployment scaling of initial AMD systems.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Mapping thermal energy storage technologies with advanced nuclear reactors

Advanced nuclear power plants (NPPs) will potentially need to operate in environments where power generation flexibility is more highly valued than the stability or baseload generation capability for conventional demand curves. Thermal energy storage (TES) systems would enable NPPs to respond nimbly to market variability and could also position advanced NPPs to participate differently in restructured markets, thus further enhancing their economic competitiveness. TES systems could also benefit the electric grid by eliminating the need for peaking plants, as well as by improving the economic performance of baseload NPPs. While TES technologies afford a unique opportunity to address many of these challenges, the applicability of these systems is also complicated by the fact that various advanced NPPs are designed differently, each with its own temperature range, size, operating fluids, and operating conditions. Hence, TES systems face significant barriers to investment, as more information on their compatibility and performance metrics is needed to quantify the advantages provided by each, as well as the challenges these technologies might face if coupled with a particular type of advanced NPP. This study explores the possibility of integrating a wide variety of TES technologies with various categories of advanced NPPs, based on their operating characteristics. To help decision makers, users and developers decide which TES technology is best suited to a particular category of advanced NPPs, this research present a Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) analysis of 10 TES systems that could potentially be coupled with advanced NPPs, which themselves are divided into nine categories based on their operating conditions. Then, each advanced NPP category is evaluated for compatibility with the 10 TES systems by assembling and discussing a database of information concerning 10 engineering questions, defined herein in as figures of merit (FOMs), such as: technology readiness level (TRL), temperature compatibility, energy density, size, cycle frequency, ramp time, realignment frequency, geographic needs, environmental impact, and interventions. By assembling a database of information concerning the TES technologies' compatibility with various advanced NPP systems, this study can help developers acquaint themselves with a particular TES technology before choosing to build a new integrated installation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Phenomenon Identification and Ranking Table Analysis for Thermal Energy Storage Technologies Integration with Advanced Nuclear Reactors

This report provides an overview of the Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) analysis of thermal energy storage (TES) systems for possible integration with various types of advanced nuclear power plants (NPPs). Advanced NPPs will potentially need to operate in environments where power generation flexibility is more highly valued than the stability or baseload generation capability for conventional demand curves. TES systems would enable NPPs to respond nimbly to market variability and could also position advanced NPPs to participate differently in restructured markets, thus further enhancing their economic competitiveness. TES systems could also benefit the electric grid by eliminating the need for peaking plants, as well as by improving the economic performance of baseload NPPs. While TES technologies afford a unique opportunity to address many of these challenges, the applicability of these systems is also complicated by the fact that various advanced NPPs are designed differently, each with its own temperature range, size, operating fluids, and operating conditions. Hence, TES systems face significant barriers to investment, as more information on their compatibility and performance metrics is needed to quantify the advantages provided by each, as well as the challenges these technologies might face if coupled with a particular type of advanced NPP. This report explores the possibility of integrating a wide variety of TES technologies with various categories of advanced NPPs, based on their operating characteristics. To help users and developers decide which TES technology is best suited to a particular category of advanced NPPs, this research developed a PIRT of 10 TES systems that could potentially be coupled with advanced NPPs, which themselves are divided into nine categories based on their operating conditions. Each advanced NPP category is evaluated for compatibility with the 10 TES systems by assembling and discussing a database of information concerning 10 engineering questions (defined herein in as figures of merit [FOMs]), such as: technology readiness level (TRL), temperature compatibility, energy density, size, cycle frequency, ramp time, realignment frequency, geographic needs, environmental impact, and interventions. By assembling a database of information concerning the TES technologies’ compatibility with various advanced NPP systems, this study can help developers acquaint themselves with a particular TES technology before choosing to build a new integrated installation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Empirical Validation of UBEM: An Assessment of Bias in Urban Building Energy Modeling for Chicago

Residential and commercial buildings currently account for 30% of total global final energy consumption. Urban-scale building energy modeling (UBEM) can enable scalable investments and unlock building improvements by quantifying energy, demand, emissions, and cost reductions of specific measures or packages for building-specific technologies in large geographic regions. While the sophistication of UBEM data sources and technologies have increased dramatically in the past decade, there remains a knowledge gap for empirical validation and sources of bias between building-specific energy models and measured data at varying geographic scales.As UBEM continues to develop, systemic analysis of accuracy, bias, and limitations of the resulting models is necessary to inform best practices and move toward standardization. These are characterized for the Automatic Building Energy Modeling (AutoBEM) software suite with an initial case study involving metered electricity consumption data from 247,188 buildings in Chicago, Illinois, USA - averaged across years 2019-2021 - compared to the following datasets: (1) the AutoBEM-generated nation-scale Model America version 2 (MAv2) data for 596,064 buildings, (2) tax assessor data for 579,829 buildings, (3) tax assessor data filled with MAv2, and (4) 102 representative dynamic archetypes. The accuracy is reported for every building type and vintage combination, along with multiple sources of bias for unique building descriptors. The AutoBEM simulation workflow produced energy consumption estimates that closely match aggregated metered electricity consumption data for different types of buildings constructed during various time periods at the city scale - with initial normalized mean bias error of 10.9%, and 1.1% after removing outliers. Contribution of statistically significant factors including building type, land use, age, and size to variance in UBEM bias is quantified.

Garg, Ankur↗