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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

High-throughput platform for yeast morphological profiling predicts the targets of bioactive compounds

Abstract Morphological profiling is an omics-based approach for predicting intracellular targets of chemical compounds in which the dose-dependent morphological changes induced by the compound are systematically compared to the morphological changes in gene-deleted cells. In this study, we developed a reliable high-throughput (HT) platform for yeast morphological profiling using drug-hypersensitive strains to minimize compound use, HT microscopy to speed up data generation and analysis, and a generalized linear model to predict targets with high reliability. We first conducted a proof-of-concept study using six compounds with known targets: bortezomib, hydroxyurea, methyl methanesulfonate, benomyl, tunicamycin, and echinocandin B. Then we applied our platform to predict the mechanism of action of a novel diferulate-derived compound, poacidiene. Morphological profiling of poacidiene implied that it affects the DNA damage response, which genetic analysis confirmed. Furthermore, we found that poacidiene inhibits the growth of phytopathogenic fungi, implying applications as an effective antifungal agent. Thus, our platform is a new whole-cell target prediction tool for drug discovery.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Spatial consistency of Chinook salmon redd distribution within and among years in the Cowlitz River, Washington

We investigated the spawning patterns of Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha on the lower Cowlitz River, Washington (USA) using a unique set of fine- and coarse-scale 35 temporal and spatial data collected during bi-weekly aerial surveys conducted in 1991-2009 (500 m to 28 km resolution) and 2008-2009 (100-500 m resolution). Redd locations were mapped from a helicopter during 2008 and 2009 with a hand-held global positioning system (GPS) synchronized with in-flight audio recordings. We examined spatial patterns of Chinook salmon redd reoccupation among and within years in relation to segment-scale geomorphic features. Chinook salmon spawned in the same sections each year with little variation among years. On a coarse scale, five years (1993, 1998, 2000, 2002, and 2009) were compared for reoccupation. Redd locations were highly correlated among years resulting in a minimum correlation coefficient of 0.90 (adjusted P = 0.002). Comparisons on a fine scale (500 m) between 2008 and 2009 also revealed a high degree of consistency among redd locations (P < 0.001). On a finer temporal scale, we observed that salmon spawned in the same sections during the first and last week (2008: P < 0.02; and 2009: P < 0.001). Redds were clustered in both 2008 and 2009 (P < 0.001). Regression analysis with a generalized linear model at the 500-m scale indicated that river kilometer and channel bifurcation were positively associated with redd density, whereas sinuosity was negatively associated with redd density. Collecting data on specific redd locations with a GPS during aerial surveys was logistically feasible and cost effective and greatly enhanced the spatial precision of Chinook salmon spawning surveys.

habitat management↗
DOE OSTI2016

Discussion of “Bayesian design of experiments for industrial and scientific applications via gaussian processes”

First, we would like to commend Dr. Woods on his thought-provoking paper and insightful presentation at the 4th Annual Stu Hunter conference. We think that the material presented highlights some important needs in the area of design of experiments for generalized linear models (GLMs). In addition, we agree with Dr. Woods that design of experiements of GLMs does implicitly require expert judgement about model parameters, and hence using a Bayesian approach to capture this knowledge is a natural strategy to summarize what is known with the opportunity to incorporate associated uncertainty about that information.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Long‐term evaluation of fitness and demographic effects of a Chinook Salmon supplementation program

Abstract While the goal of supplementation programs is to provide positive, population‐level effects for species of conservation concern, these programs can also present an inherent fitness risk when captive‐born individuals are fully integrated into the natural population. In order to evaluate the long‐term effects of a supplementation program and estimate the demographic and phenotypic factors influencing the fitness of a threatened population of Chinook Salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ), we genotyped tissue samples spanning a 19‐year period (1998–2016) to generate pedigrees from adult fish returning to Johnson Creek, Idaho, USA. We expanded upon previous estimates of relative reproductive success (RRS) to include grandparentage analyses and used generalized linear models to determine whether origin (hatchery or natural) or phenotypic traits (timing of arrival to spawning grounds, body length, and age) significantly predicted reproductive success (RS) across multiple years. Our results provide evidence that this supplementation program with 100% natural‐origin broodstock provided a long‐term demographic boost to the population (mean of 4.56 times in the first generation and mean of 2.52 times in the second generation). Overall, when spawning in nature, hatchery‐origin fish demonstrated a trend toward lower RS compared to natural‐origin fish ( p < 0.05). However, when hatchery‐origin fish successfully spawned with natural‐origin fish, they had similar RS compared to natural by natural crosses (first‐generation mean hatchery by natural cross RRS = 1.11 females, 1.13 males; second‐generation mean hatchery by natural cross RRS = 1.03 females, 1.08 males). While origin, return year, and body length were significant predictors of fitness for both males and females ( p < 0.05), return day was significant for males but not females ( p > 0.05). These results indicate that supplementation programs that reduce the potential for genetic adaptation to captivity can be effective at increasing population abundance while limiting long‐term fitness effects on wild populations.

Janowitz‐Koch, Ilana↗
DOE OSTI2025

Neighborhood sociome factors and pediatric asthma exacerbations: Protective role of tree crown density and importance of pharmacy access in Chicago's south side

Abstract Background Pediatric asthma exacerbations remain a critical public health concern, particularly in historically underserved urban settings. Objective This study investigates sociome factors—the social context of disease—associated with asthma exacerbations among children living in Chicago's South Side, leveraging clinical and publicly available generalizable census tract‐level datasets from agencies including ChiVes, the City of Chicago Data Portal, EPA, Census Bureau, HUD, NOAA, and more. The aim is to uncover novel hypotheses for potential new interventions. Methods A generalized linear model assessed associations with the outcome of asthma exacerbations while accounting for clustering at the patient level. Predictors included all variables from the Sociome Data Commons, including social, environmental, behavioral, economic, housing, and school variables. Results Predictors of decreased risk included patient age (+4.8 years, −22%), tree crown density (+6% coverage, −17%), parks per acre (+0.41, −8%), and labor market engagement (+0.8 points, −9%). Conversely, predictors of increased risk included increased distance to the nearest pharmacy (+0.28 miles, +12%), limited English skills (+2.3%, +10%), higher inequality (+0.08 points, +8%), and visits in the Spring (+11%) and Fall (+20%). Conclusion The results suggest that tree crown density, a novel finding in the context of asthma exacerbations, may play a protective role. Limited access to health care facilities such as pharmacies continues to complicate care. Clinical Implications These findings provide hypotheses for future interventions for long‐standing asthma disparities.

Allergy↗
DOE OSTI2013

High spatial resolution brain functional MRI using submillimeter balanced steady-state free precession acquisition

Purpose: One of the technical advantages of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) is its precise localization of changes from neuronal activities. While current practice of fMRI acquisition at voxel size around 3 × 3 × 3 mm{sup 3} achieves satisfactory results in studies of basic brain functions, higher spatial resolution is required in order to resolve finer cortical structures. This study investigated spatial resolution effects on brain fMRI experiments using balanced steady-state free precession (bSSFP) imaging with 0.37 mm{sup 3} voxel volume at 3.0 T. Methods: In fMRI experiments, full and unilateral visual field 5 Hz flashing checkerboard stimulations were given to healthy subjects. The bSSFP imaging experiments were performed at three different frequency offsets to widen the coverage, with functional activations in the primary visual cortex analyzed using the general linear model. Variations of the spatial resolution were achieved by removing outerk-space data components. Results: Results show that a reduction in voxel volume from 3.44 × 3.44 × 2 mm{sup 3} to 0.43 × 0.43 × 2 mm{sup 3} has resulted in an increase of the functional activation signals from (7.7 ± 1.7)% to (20.9 ± 2.0)% at 3.0 T, despite of the threefold SNR decreases in the original images, leading to nearly invariant functional contrast-to-noise ratios (fCNR) even at high spatial resolution. Activation signals aligning nicely with gray matter sulci at high spatial resolution would, on the other hand, have possibly been mistaken as noise at low spatial resolution. Conclusions: It is concluded that the bSSFP sequence is a plausible technique for fMRI investigations at submillimeter voxel widths without compromising fCNR. The reduction of partial volume averaging with nonactivated brain tissues to retain fCNR is uniquely suitable for high spatial resolution applications such as the resolving of columnar organization in the brain.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2014

TU-C-12A-12: Differentiating Bone Lesions and Degenerative Joint Disease in NaF PET/CT Scans Using Machine Learning

Purpose: [F-18]NaF PET can be used to image bone metastases; however, tracer uptake in degenerative joint disease (DJD) often appears similar to metastases. This study aims to develop and compare different machine learning algorithms to automatically identify regions of [F-18]NaF scans that correspond to DJD. Methods: 10 metastatic prostate cancer patients received whole body [F-18]NaF PET/CT scans prior to treatment. Image segmentation resulted in 852 ROIs, 69 of which were identified by a nuclear medicine physician as DJD. For all ROIs, various PET and CT textural features were computed. ROIs were divided into training and testing sets used to train eight different machine learning classifiers. Classifiers were evaluated based on receiver operating characteristics area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value (PPV). We also assessed the added value of including CT features in addition to PET features for training classifiers. Results: The training set consisted of 37 DJD ROIs with 475 non-DJD ROIs, and the testing set consisted of 32 DJD ROIs with 308 non-DJD ROIs. Of all classifiers, generalized linear models (GLM), decision forests (DF), and support vector machines (SVM) had the best performance. AUCs of GLM (0.929), DF (0.921), and SVM (0.889) were significantly higher than the other models (p<0.001). GLM and DF, overall, had the best sensitivity, specificity, and PPV, and gave a significantly better performance (p<0.01) than all other models. PET/CT GLM classifiers had higher AUC than just PET or just CT. GLMs built using PET/CT information had superior or comparable sensitivities, specificities and PPVs to just PET or just CT. Conclusion: Machine learning algorithms trained with PET/CT features were able to identify some cases of DJD. GLM outperformed the other classification algorithms. Using PET and CT information together was shown to be superior to using PET or CT features alone. Research supported by the Prostate Cancer Foundation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-I-33: Establishment of CT Diagnostic Reference Levels in Province Nova Scotia

Purpose: To evaluate patient radiation dose from the most frequently performed CT examinations and to establish provincial diagnostic reference levels (DRLs) as a tool for protocol optimization. Methods: The study investigated the following CT examinations: head, chest, abdomen/pelvis, and chest/abdomen/pelvis (CAP). Dose data, volume CT dose index (CTDIvol) and dose-length product (DLP), were collected from 15 CT scanners installed during 2004–2014 in 11 hospital sites of Nova Scotia. All scanners had dose modulation options and multislice capability (16–128 detector rows). The sample for each protocol included 15 average size patients (70±20 kg). Provincial DRLs were calculated as the 75th percentile of patient dose distributions. The differences in dose between hospitals were evaluated with a single factor ANOVA statistical test. Generalized linear modeling was used to determine the factors associated with higher radiation dose. A sample of 36 abdominal studies performed on three different scanners was blinded and randomized for an assessment by an experienced radiologist who graded the imaging quality of anatomic structures. Results: Data for 900 patients were collected. The DRLs were proposed using CTDIvol (mGy) and DLP (mGy*cm) values for CT head (67 and 1049, respectively), chest (12 and 393), abdomen/pelvis (16 and 717), and CAP (14 and 1034). These DRLs were lower than the published national data except for the head CTDIvol. The differences between the means of the dose distributions from each scanner were statistically significant (p<0.05) for all examinations. A very weak correlation was found between the dose and the scanner age or the number of slices with Pearson’s correlation coefficients of 0.011–0.315. The blinded analysis of image quality demonstrated no clinically significant difference except for the noise category. Conclusion: Provincial DRLs were established for typical CT examinations. The variations in dose between the hospitals suggested a large potential for optimization of examinations. Radiology Research Foundation grant.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Association of chronic fatigue syndrome with premature telomere attrition

Background: Chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS), also known as myalgic encephalomyelitis (ME), is a severely debilitating condition of unknown etiology. The symptoms and risk factors of ME/CFS share features of accelerated aging implicated in several diseases. Using telomere length as a marker, this study was performed to test the hypothesis that ME/CFS is associated with accelerated aging. Methods: Participant (n = 639) data came from the follow-up time point of the Georgia CFS surveillance study. Using the 1994 CFS Research Case Definition with questionnaire-based subscale thresholds for fatigue, function, and symptoms, participants were classified into four illness groups: CFS if all criteria were met (n = 64), CFS-X if CFS with exclusionary conditions (n = 77), ISF (insufficient symptoms/fatigue) if only some criteria were met regardless of exclusionary conditions (n = 302), and NF (non-fatigued) if no criteria and no exclusionary conditions (n = 196). Relative telomere length (T/S ratio) was measured using DNA from whole blood and real-time PCR. General linear models were used to estimate the association of illness groups or T/S ratio with demographics, biological measures and covariates with significance set at p < 0.05. Results: The mean T/S ratio differed significantly by illness group (p = 0.0017); the T/S ratios in CFS (0.90 ± 0.03) and ISF (0.94 ± 0.02) were each significantly lower than in NF (1.06 ± 0.04). Differences in T/S ratio by illness groups remained significant after adjustment for covariates of age, sex, body mass index, waist–hip ratio, post-exertional malaise and education attainment. Telomere length was shorter by 635, 254 and 424 base pairs in CFS, CFS-X and ISF, respectively, compared to NF. This shorter telomere length translates to roughly 10.1–20.5, 4.0–8.2 and 6.6–13.7 years of additional aging in CFS, CFS-X and ISF compared to NF respectively. Further, stratified analyses based on age and sex demonstrated that the association of ME/CFS with short telomeres is largely moderated by female subjects < 45 years old. Conclusions: This study found a significant association of ME/CFS with premature telomere attrition that is largely moderated by female subjects < 45 years old. Our results indicate that ME/CFS could be included in the list of conditions associated with accelerated aging. Further work is needed to evaluate the functional significance of accelerated aging in ME/CFS.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Spatial Heterogeneity in Human Activities Favors the Persistence of Wolves in Agroecosystems

As human populations expand, there is increasing demand and pressure for land. Under this scenario, behavioural flexibility and adaptation become important processes leading to the persistence of large carnivores in human-dominated landscapes such as agroecosystems. A growing interest has recently emerged on the outcome of the coexistence between wolves and humans in these systems. It has been suggested that spatial heterogeneity in human activities would be a major environmental factor modulating vulnerability and persistence of this contentious species in agroecosystems. Here, we combined information from 35 den sites detected between 2011 and 2012 in agroecosystems of western Iran (Hamedan province), a set of environmental variables measured at landscape and fine spatial scales, and generalized linear models to identify patterns of den site selection by wolves in a highly-modified agroecosystem. On a landscape level, wolves selected a mixture of rangelands with scattered dry-farms on hillsides (showing a low human use) to locate their dens, avoiding areas with high densities of settlements and primary roads. On a fine spatial scale, wolves primarily excavated dens into the sides of elevated steep-slope hills with availability of water bodies in the vicinity of den sites, and wolves were relegated to dig in places with coarse-soil particles. Our results suggest that vulnerability of wolves in human-dominated landscapes could be compensated by the existence of spatial heterogeneity in human activities. Such heterogeneity would favor wolf persistence in agroecosystems favoring a land sharing model of coexistence between wolves and people.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Longer TOMM40 poly-T variants associated with higher FDDNP-PET medial temporal tau and amyloid binding

The translocase of outer mitochondrial membrane 40 (TOMM40), which lies in linkage disequilibrium with the apolipoprotein E (APOE) gene, has been implicated in Alzheimer’s disease (AD). TOMM40 influences AD pathology through mitochondrial neurotoxicity, and the medial temporal lobe (MTL) is the most likely brain region for identifying early manifestations of AD-related morphology changes. While early reports indicated that the longer length poly-T allele of TOMM40 increases risk for AD, these findings have not been consistently replicated in further studies. We examined the effect of TOMM40 and APOE on regional brain positron emission tomography (PET) 2-(1-{6-[(2 [F18]fluoroethyl) (methyl) amino]-2-naphthyl}ethylidene)malononitrile (FDDNP) binding values in MTL.A total of 73 non-demented older adults (42 females; mean age: 62.9(10.9) completed genotyping for both APOE and TOMM40 and received FDDNP-PET scans. For TOMM40, the lengths of the poly-T sequence were classified as short (14–20 repeats; S), long (21–29 repeats, L) or very long (>29 repeats, VL). Using general linear models, we examined medial temporal lobe FDDNP binding and cognitive functioning between TOMM40 and APOE-4 groups, with age, sex, and education as covariates. Data from 30 individuals with APOE-4 and L TOMM40 poly-T length, 11 non E4 TOMM40 S/S, 14 non E4 TOMM40 S/VL and 13 non E4 TOMM40 VL/VL were analyzed. Medial temporal FDDNP binding differed significantly between TOMM40/APOE groups (F(3,62) = 3.3,p = .03). Participants with TOMM40 S/S exhibited significantly lower binding compared to TOMM40 S/VL and APOE-4 carriers. We did not find a significant relationship between TOMM40 poly-T lengths/APOE risk groups and cognitive functioning. This is the first report to demonstrate a significant association between longer TOMM40 poly-T lengths and higher medial temporal plaque and tangle burden in non-demented older adults. Identifying biomarkers that are risk factors for AD will enhance our ability to identify subjects likely to benefit from novel AD treatments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

FY2018 Discovery Through Situational Awareness: Anomalies, Oscillations, and Classification

This technical report is a summary of work performed under the DOE GMLC program under the task titled “Discovery through Situational Awareness”. The focus of this work was to apply big data, statistical techniques to PMU data to do the following: 1) baseline PMU data and find anomalies with a focus on phase angle pairs, 2) identify the frequencies of dominant modal oscillations between different parts of a power system, and 3) identify and classify frequency events in PMU data. This work was performed on PMU data from the Western Interconnect. Many of these algorithms will be applied to wide area phase angle pair data on the Eastern Interconnect in a tool called ESAMS (Eastern Interconnect Situational Awareness Monitoring System). ESAMS was built by EPG (Electric Power Group) and PNNL and is currently being installed on the Eastern Interconnect. The results discussed in this report were made from 14 PMUs from data ranging from Oct 2016 to May 2018. The PMU data were measured 60 times each second. Fourteen phase angle pairs were included, with reactive and active power being calculated at 14 sites. All results have been de-identified for this report. The methodologies applied in the ESAMS tool are described in Section 2. A baseline of PMU data is created using the last 120 days of data. This baseline describes typical behavior as understood from the data. The baseline is then applied to the next day’s data and anomalies from that baseline are identified. Plots are created to help describe what is anomalous during that specific moment in time. These algorithms are currently being installed on the Eastern Interconnect. FY19 work will include discussing the results and findings from the ESAMS tool. A new method of identifying the frequencies of dominant modal oscillations between different parts of a power system is described in Section 3. A list of 199 frequency events provided by Bonneville Power Administration were used to create algorithms to detect frequency events and to create classification rules that can be used to identify future frequency events. Section 4 discusses the results the performance of 7 different event detection, clustering-based methods. Accuracy percentages ranged from 93.59% to 99.16%, with most methods being very fast. GBM (Gradient Boosting Machine) performed well and quickly. These 7 different methods were also tested to determine how well each built classification rules on training data and then applied those rules to identify future frequency events. Accuracy percentages ranged from 89.09% to 99.9%, with all methods performing quickly. GLM (General Linear Model) was viewed as the top performer when considering accuracy and processing time. Because the list of events consisted of 80% of them as active power events and only 20% as faults, all methods struggled to identify events as faults. Small faults were especially difficult to identify. A separate algorithm was created to help with this. Additional work will be done in FY19 on event detection using more data and more events and refinements to the methods.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Simulator for Neyer Tests of Explosives

Explosives and explosive devices such as detonators are typically tested by applying a range of stimuli such as voltage or mechanical shock, and recording binary “detonated/did not detonate” responses. These are analyzed using maximum likelihood or generalized linear models to provide estimates of quantities such as the all-fire and no-fire points. Given that the true threshold for detonation is unknown a priori , sequential design methods are typically used to optimize the set of test points. One popular method, implemented in commercial software, is Neyer’s algorithm. To support simulation and experimental design, we have developed code in the R programming language to duplicate the functions of the Neyer software. We provide code for the simulator along with a description and examples of usage.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Epidemiology, Clinical Features, and Outcomes of Coccidioidomycosis, Utah, 2006–2015

On the basis of a 1957 geographic Coccidioides seropositivity survey, 3 counties in southwestern Utah, USA, were considered coccidioidomycosis-endemic, but there has been a paucity of information on the disease burden in Utah since. We report findings from a recent clinical and epidemiologic study of coccidioidomycosis in Utah. To describe clinical characteristics, we identified all coccidioidomycosis cases in an integrated health system in the state during 2006–2015. For epidemiologic analysis, we used cases reported to the Utah Department of Health during 2009–2015. Mean state incidence was 1.83 cases/100,000 population/year. Washington County, in southwestern Utah, had the highest incidence, 17.2 cases/100,000 population/year. In a generalized linear model with time as a fixed effect, mean annual temperature, population, and new construction were associated with regional variations in incidence. Using these variables in a spatiotemporal model, we estimated the adjusted regional variation by county to predict areas where Coccidioides infections might increase.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Seroprevalence and risk factors for brucellosis amongst livestock and humans in a multi-herd ranch system in Kagera, Tanzania

Background Brucellosis remains a significant health and economic challenge for livestock and humans globally. Despite its public health implications, the factors driving the endemic persistence ofBrucellaat the human-livestock interface in Tanzania remain poorly elucidated. This study aimed to identify the seroprevalence ofBrucellainfection in livestock and humans within a ranching system and determine associated risk factors for disease endemicity. Methods A cross-sectional sero-epidemiological study was conducted in 2023 in Tanzania’s Karagwe District, involving 725 livestock (cattle, goats, sheep) from 10 herds and 112 humans from associated camps. Seroprevalence was assessed using competitive ELISA while epidemiological data were collected via questionnaires. Generalized Linear Models and Contrast Analysis were used to identify risk factors for infection. Results Overall seroprevalence was 34% in livestock and 41% in humans. Goats exhibited the highest prevalence (69.2%), while cattle had the lowest (22.6%). Mixed-species herds (Odds Ratio, OR = 2.96, CI [1.90–4.60]) and small ruminants-only herds (OR = 6.54, CI [3.65–11.72]) showed a significantly higher risk of seropositivity compared to cattle-only herds. Older cattle (OR = 5.23, CI [2.70–10.10]) and lactating females (OR = 2.87, CI [1.78–4.63]) represented significant risks for brucellosis in livestock. In humans, close contact with animals (OR = 7.20, CI [1.97–36.31]) and handling animals during parturition or aborted fetuses (OR = 2.37, CI [1.01–5.58]) were significant risk factors. Notably, no spatial association was found in seroprevalence between herds and nearby human communities. Conclusion The lack of spatial correlation between livestock and human seroprevalence suggests complex transmission dynamics, potentially involving endemic circulation in livestock and human infections from multiple sources of exposure to livestock. This study highlights the need for comprehensive zoonotic risk education and targeted intervention strategies. Further research is crucial to elucidate transmission pathways and improveBrucellainfection control. This includes developing robust methods for identifying infective species and implementing effective strategies to mitigateBrucellainfection in endemic regions.

Public, Environmental & Occupational Health↗
DOE OSTI2020

Extinction Dynamics of the Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Carrier State Under Natural Conditions

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most economically important livestock diseases worldwide. Following the clinical phase of FMD, a large proportion of ruminants remain persistently infected for extended periods. Although extinction of this carrier state occurs continuously at the animal and population levels, studies vary widely in their estimates of the duration of persistent infection. There is a need for robust statistical models to capture the dynamics of persistent infection for the sake of guiding FMD control and trade policies. The goal of the current study was to develop and assess statistical models to describe the extinction of FMD virus (FMDV) persistent infection using data from primary longitudinal studies of naturally infected cattle and Asian buffalo in Vietnam and India. Specifically, accelerated failure time (AFT) models and generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) were developed to predict the probability of persistent infection in seropositive animals and identified carriers at the individual animal level at sequential time points after outbreaks. The primary studies were analyzed by country and combined using an individual-participant data meta-analysis approach. The models estimated similar trends in the duration of persistent infection for the study/species groups included in the analyses, however the significance of the trends differed between the models. The overall probabilities of persistent infection were similar as predicted by the AFT and GLMM models: 6 months: 99% (AFT) /80% (GLMM), 12 months: 51% (AFT) /32% (GLMM), 18 months: 6% (AFT) /5% (GLMM), 24 months: 0.8% (AFT) /0.6% (GLMM). These models utilizing diverse and robust data sets predict higher probabilities of persistence than previously published, suggesting greater endurance of carriers subsequent to an outbreak. This study demonstrates the utility of statistical models to investigate the dynamics of persistent infection and the importance of large datasets, which can be achieved by combining data from several smaller studies in meta-analyses. Results of this study enhance current knowledge of the FMDV carrier state and may inform policy decisions regarding FMDV persistent infection.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity of Optical Satellites to Estimate Windthrow Tree-Mortality in a Central Amazon Forest

Windthrow (i.e., trees broken and uprooted by wind) is a major natural disturbance in Amazon forests. Images from medium-resolution optical satellites combined with extensive field data have allowed researchers to assess patterns of windthrow tree-mortality and to monitor forest recovery over decades of succession in different regions. Although satellites with high spatial-resolution have become available in the last decade, they have not yet been employed for the quantification of windthrow tree-mortality. Here, we address how increasing the spatial resolution of satellites affects plot-to-landscape estimates of windthrow tree-mortality. We combined forest inventory data with Landsat 8 (30 m pixel), Sentinel 2 (10 m), and WorldView 2 (2 m) imagery over an old-growth forest in the Central Amazon that was disturbed by a single windthrow event in November 2015. Remote sensing estimates of windthrow tree-mortality were produced from Spectral Mixture Analysis and evaluated with forest inventory data (i.e., ground true) by using Generalized Linear Models. Field measured windthrow tree-mortality (3 transects and 30 subplots) crossing the entire disturbance gradient was 26.9 ± 11.1% (mean ± 95% CI). Although the three satellites produced reliable and statistically similar estimates (from 26.5% to 30.3%, p < 0.001), Landsat 8 had the most accurate results and efficiently captured field-observed variations in windthrow tree-mortality across the entire gradient of disturbance (Sentinel 2 and WorldView 2 produced the second and third best results, respectively). As expected, mean-associated uncertainties decreased systematically with increasing spatial resolution (i.e., from Landsat 8 to Sentinel 2 and WorldView 2). However, the overall quality of model fits showed the opposite pattern. We suggest that this reflects the influence of a relatively minor disturbance, such as defoliation and crown damage, and the fast growth of natural regeneration, which were not measured in the field nor can be captured by coarser resolution imagery. Our results validate the reliability of Landsat imagery for assessing plot-to-landscape patterns of windthrow tree-mortality in dense and heterogeneous tropical forests. Satellites with high spatial resolution can improve estimates of windthrow severity by allowing the quantification of crown damage and mortality of lower canopy and understory trees. However, this requires the validation of remote sensing metrics using field data at compatible scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗