Results for “Game theory” — Page 5

DOE OSTI2024

The Delicate Balance Redux: The Role of Nuclear Forces, Damage Limitation and Uncertainty in Future U.S.-China Crises

What is the impact of damage limitation capabilities like counterforce and missile defenses on deterrence, when their efficacy in stopping an adversary nuclear attack is uncertain? This is a key unanswered question to understand “how much is enough” for the United States to deter China and Russia in future nuclear crises. In this paper we extend an established, single move game theory model to capture the dynamics of two players in a nuclear crisis having varying damage limitation capabilities with uncertain effectiveness. Our model formalizes the logic of the “delicate balance” school of deterrence, which states that leverage in a crisis is driven by the risk each player can take with their combined strategic forces, and that those risks carry uncertainty as nuclear forces are hard to deliver against technologically advanced adversaries. Our model shows that damage limitation capabilities—even those with significant uncertainty around them like cyber or electronic warfare—can drive bargaining outcomes in an array of nuclear crises. We then apply these bargaining outcomes to the expected U.S.-China strategic balance as China builds out its nuclear force through 2035. We apply published force exchange models to determine the expected damage each side will be able to deliver, and we use these values to determine the likelihood that the U.S. can prevail in crises of varying stakes. Last, we show that U.S. policymakers have an array of options to improve future bargaining outcomes, evaluating how additional nuclear forces trade against improvements in damage limitation.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2022

Interpreting machine learning prediction of fire emissions and comparison with FireMIP process-based models

Annual burned areas in the United States have increased 2-fold during the past decades. With more large fires resulting in more emissions of fine particulate matter, an accurate prediction of fire emissions is critical for quantifying the impacts of fires on air quality, human health, and climate. This study aims to construct a machine learning (ML) model with game-theory interpretation to predict monthly fire emissions over the contiguous US (CONUS) and to understand the controlling factors of fire emissions. The optimized ML model is used to diagnose the process-based models in the Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) to inform future development. Results show promising performance for the ML model, Community Land Model (CLM), and Joint UK Land Environment Simulator-Interactive Fire And Emission Algorithm For Natural Environments (JULES-INFERNO) in reproducing the spatial distributions, seasonality, and interannual variability of fire emissions over the CONUS. Regional analysis shows that only the ML model and CLM simulate the realistic interannual variability of fire emissions for most of the subregions (r >0.95 for ML and r =0.14~0.70 for CLM), except for Mediterranean California, where all the models perform poorly (r =0.74 for ML and r <0.30 for the FireMIP models). Regarding seasonality, most models capture the peak emission in July over the western US. However, all models except for the ML model fail to reproduce the bimodal peaks in July and October over Mediterranean California, which may be explained by the smaller wind speeds of the atmospheric forcing data during Santa Ana wind events and limitations in model parameterizations for capturing the effects of Santa Ana winds on fire activity. Furthermore, most models struggle to capture the spring peak in emissions in the southeastern US, probably due to underrepresentation of human effects and the influences of winter dryness on fires in the models. As for extreme events, both the ML model and CLM successfully reproduce the frequency map of extreme emission occurrence but overestimate the number of months with extremely large fire emissions. Comparing the fire PM 2.5 emissions from the ML model with process-based fire models highlights their strengths and uncertainties for regional analysis and prediction and provides useful insights into future directions for model improvements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1969

Nonzero-sum differential games.

Differential games theory with nonzero sum for application to economic analysis, discussing Nash equilibrium, minimax and noninferior strategies set

Ho, Y. C.↗

NASA NTRS1970

Differential games

Differential game theory, discussing two player zero sum situation

Varaiya, P. P.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Dynamics and control of forward swept wing aircraft

Aspects of non-zero differential game theory with application to multivariable control synthesis and optimal linear control law design using optimum parameter sensitivity analysis are discussed.

Schmidt, D. K.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Methodology for determination and use of the no-escape envelope of an air-to-air-missile

A large gap exists between optimal control and differential-game theory and their applications. The purpose of this paper is to show how this gap may be bridged. Missile-avoidance of realistically simulated infrared heat-seeking, fire-and-forget missile is studied. In detailed simulations, sweeping out the discretized initial condition space, avoidance methods based on pilot experience are combined with those based on simplified optimal control analysis to derive an approximation to the no-escape missile envelopes. The detailed missile equations and no-escape envelopes were then incorporated into an existing piloted simulation of air-to-air combat to generate missile firing decisions as well as missile avoidance commands. The use of these envelopes was found to be effective in both functions.

Neuman, Frank↗

NASA NTRS1989

Study of a pursuit-evasion guidance law for high performance aircraft

The study of a one-on-one aircraft pursuit-evasion guidance scheme for high-performance aircraft is discussed. The research objective is to implement a guidance law derived earlier using differential game theory in conjunction with the theory of feedback linearization. Unlike earlier research in this area, the present formulation explicitly recognizes the two-sided nature of the pursuit-evasion scenario. The present research implements the guidance law in a realistic model of a modern high-performance fighter aircraft. Also discussed are the details of the guidance law, implementation in a highly detailed simulation of a high-performance fighter, and numerical results for two engagement geometries. Modifications of the guidance law for onboard implementation is also discussed.

Williams, Peggy S.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Real-time simulation of helicopter air-to-air combat

The AUTOMAN computer program develops automated maneuvering decisions for helicopters during air-to-air combat over hilly terrain. Recently, the capabilities of this program have been extended and enhanced significantly. The revised program was installed at the NASA Ames manned flight-simulation facility to drive a computer-generated image of an enemy helicopter, thereby providing an adversary for the human pilot. Maneuvers are selected by employing game theory. Enhancements include a guidance law for target acquisition when a firing opportunity arises; fire-control sequence logic; improved low-flying capabilities; line-of-sight computations for the cockpit field-of-view, terrain obstructions, and visual range limits; use of terrain for masking; air-to-air collision-avoidance maneuvers; decision on dispensing flares and chaff; and adjustable levels of pilot experience. The program was found to be extremely useful for both rotorcraft handling-quality evaluations and air-to-air combat training.

Austin, Fred↗

NASA NTRS1992

Robustness of solutions to a benchmark control problem

The robustness of 10 solutions to a benchmark control design problem presented at the 1990 American Control Conference has been evaluated. The 10 controllers have second-to-eighth-order transfer functions and have been designed using several different methods, including H-infinity optimization, loop-transfer recovery, imaginary-axis shifting, constrained optimization, structured covariance, game theory, and the internal model principle. Stochastic robustness analysis quantifies the controllers' stability and performance robustness with structured uncertainties in up to six system parameters. The analysis provides insights into system response that are not readily derived from other robustness criteria and provides a common ground for judging controllers produced by alternative methods. One important conclusion is that gain and phase margins are not reliable indicators of the probability of instability. Furthermore, parameter variations actually may improve the likelihood of achieving selected performance metrics, as demonstrated by results for the probability of settling-time exceedance.

Stengel, Robert F.↗

NASA NTRS1997

An Algorithm for Integrated Subsystem Embodiment and System Synthesis

Consider the statement,'A system has two coupled subsystems, one of which dominates the design process. Each subsystem consists of discrete and continuous variables, and is solved using sequential analysis and solution.' To address this type of statement in the design of complex systems, three steps are required, namely, the embodiment of the statement in terms of entities on a computer, the mathematical formulation of subsystem models, and the resulting solution and system synthesis. In complex system decomposition, the subsystems are not isolated, self-supporting entities. Information such as constraints, goals, and design variables may be shared between entities. But many times in engineering problems, full communication and cooperation does not exist, information is incomplete, or one subsystem may dominate the design. Additionally, these engineering problems give rise to mathematical models involving nonlinear functions of both discrete and continuous design variables. In this dissertation an algorithm is developed to handle these types of scenarios for the domain-independent integration of subsystem embodiment, coordination, and system synthesis using constructs from Decision-Based Design, Game Theory, and Multidisciplinary Design Optimization. Implementation of the concept in this dissertation involves testing of the hypotheses using example problems and a motivating case study involving the design of a subsonic passenger aircraft.

Lewis, Kemper↗

NASA NTRS1999

Transonic Flutter Suppression Control Law Design Using Classical and Optimal Techniques with Wind-Tunnel Results

The benchmark active controls technology and wind tunnel test program at NASA Langley Research Center was started with the objective to investigate the nonlinear, unsteady aerodynamics and active flutter suppression of wings in transonic flow. The paper will present the flutter suppression control law design process, numerical nonlinear simulation and wind tunnel test results for the NACA 0012 benchmark active control wing model. The flutter suppression control law design processes using (1) classical, (2) linear quadratic Gaussian (LQG), and (3) minimax techniques are described. A unified general formulation and solution for the LQG and minimax approaches, based on the steady state differential game theory is presented. Design considerations for improving the control law robustness and digital implementation are outlined. It was shown that simple control laws when properly designed based on physical principles, can suppress flutter with limited control power even in the presence of transonic shocks and flow separation. In wind tunnel tests in air and heavy gas medium, the closed-loop flutter dynamic pressure was increased to the tunnel upper limit of 200 psf. The control law robustness and performance predictions were verified in highly nonlinear flow conditions, gain and phase perturbations, and spoiler deployment. A non-design plunge instability condition was also successfully suppressed.

Mukhopadhyay, Vivek↗

NASA NTRS1999

Transonic Flutter Suppression Control Law Design, Analysis and Wind Tunnel Results

The benchmark active controls technology and wind tunnel test program at NASA Langley Research Center was started with the objective to investigate the nonlinear, unsteady aerodynamics and active flutter suppression of wings in transonic flow. The paper will present the flutter suppression control law design process, numerical nonlinear simulation and wind tunnel test results for the NACA 0012 benchmark active control wing model. The flutter suppression control law design processes using (1) classical, (2) linear quadratic Gaussian (LQG), and (3) minimax techniques are described. A unified general formulation and solution for the LQG and minimax approaches, based on the steady state differential game theory is presented. Design considerations for improving the control law robustness and digital implementation are outlined. It was shown that simple control laws when properly designed based on physical principles, can suppress flutter with limited control power even in the presence of transonic shocks and flow separation. In wind tunnel tests in air and heavy gas medium, the closed-loop flutter dynamic pressure was increased to the tunnel upper limit of 200 psf The control law robustness and performance predictions were verified in highly nonlinear flow conditions, gain and phase perturbations, and spoiler deployment. A non-design plunge instability condition was also successfully suppressed.

Mukhopadhyay, Vivek↗

NASA NTRS1999

Transonic Flutter Suppression Control Law Design, Analysis and Wind-Tunnel Results

The benchmark active controls technology and wind tunnel test program at NASA Langley Research Center was started with the objective to investigate the nonlinear, unsteady aerodynamics and active flutter suppression of wings in transonic flow. The paper will present the flutter suppression control law design process, numerical nonlinear simulation and wind tunnel test results for the NACA 0012 benchmark active control wing model. The flutter suppression control law design processes using (1) classical, (2) linear quadratic Gaussian (LQG), and (3) minimax techniques are described. A unified general formulation and solution for the LQG and minimax approaches, based on the steady state differential game theory is presented. Design considerations for improving the control law robustness and digital implementation are outlined. It was shown that simple control laws when properly designed based on physical principles, can suppress flutter with limited control power even in the presence of transonic shocks and flow separation. In wind tunnel tests in air and heavy gas medium, the closed-loop flutter dynamic pressure was increased to the tunnel upper limit of 200 psf. The control law robustness and performance predictions were verified in highly nonlinear flow conditions, gain and phase perturbations, and spoiler deployment. A non-design plunge instability condition was also successfully suppressed.

Mukhopadhyay, Vivek↗

NASA NTRS1999

A Survey of Collective Intelligence

This chapter presents the science of "COllective INtelligence" (COIN). A COIN is a large multi-agent systems where: i) the agents each run reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms; ii) there is little to no centralized communication or control; iii) there is a provided world utility function that, rates the possible histories of tile full system. Tile conventional approach to designing large distributed systems to optimize a world utility does not use agents running RL algorithms. Rather that approach begins with explicit modeling of the overall system's dynamics, followed by detailed hand-tuning of the interactions between the components to ensure that they "cooperate" as far as the world utility is concerned. This approach is labor-intensive, often results in highly non-robust systems, and usually results in design techniques that, have limited applicability. In contrast, with COINs we wish to solve the system design problems implicitly, via the 'adaptive' character of the RL algorithms of each of the agents. This COIN approach introduces an entirely new, profound design problem: Assuming the RL algorithms are able to achieve high rewards, what reward functions for the individual agents will, when pursued by those agents, result in high world utility? In other words, what reward functions will best ensure that we do not have phenomena like the tragedy of the commons, or Braess's paradox? Although still very young, the science of COINs has already resulted in successes in artificial domains, in particular in packet-routing, the leader-follower problem, and in variants of Arthur's "El Farol bar problem". It is expected that as it matures not only will COIN science expand greatly the range of tasks addressable by human engineers, but it will also provide much insight into already established scientific fields, such as economics, game theory, or population biology.

Wolpert, David H.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Bargaining for Open Skies

In this paper we analyze the bargaining problem between countries when negotiating bilateral air service agreements. To do so, we use the methods of bargaining and game theory. We give special attention to the case where a liberal minded country is trying to convince a less liberal country to agree to bilateral open skies, and the liberal country might also unilaterally open up its market. The following analysis is positive in the sense that the results help explain and predict the outcome of negotiations under different payoffs and structures of the bargaining process. They are normative in the sense that adequate manipulation of the bargaining conditions can ensure a desired outcome.

Wojahn, Oliver W.↗

NASA NTRS2004

A Survey of Collectives

Due to the increasing sophistication and miniaturization of computational components, complex, distributed systems of interacting agents are becoming ubiquitous. Such systems, where each agent aims to optimize its own performance, but where there is a well-defined set of system-level performance criteria, are called collectives. The fundamental problem in analyzing/designing such systems is in determining how the combined actions of self-interested agents leads to 'coordinated' behavior on a iarge scale. Examples of artificial systems which exhibit such behavior include packet routing across a data network, control of an array of communication satellites, coordination of multiple deployables, and dynamic job scheduling across a distributed computer grid. Examples of natural systems include ecosystems, economies, and the organelles within a living cell. No current scientific discipline provides a thorough understanding of the relation between the structure of collectives and how well they meet their overall performance criteria. Although still very young, research on collectives has resulted in successes both in understanding and designing such systems. It is eqected that as it matures and draws upon other disciplines related to collectives, this field will greatly expand the range of computationally addressable tasks. Moreover, in addition to drawing on them, such a fully developed field of collective intelligence may provide insight into already established scientific fields, such as mechanism design, economics, game theory, and population biology. This chapter provides a survey to the emerging science of collectives.

Tumer, Kagan↗

NASA NTRS1999

Transonic Flutter Suppression Control Law Design, Analysis and Wind-Tunnel Results

The benchmark active controls technology and wind tunnel test program at NASA Langley Research Center was started with the objective to investigate the nonlinear, unsteady aerodynamics and active flutter suppression of wings in transonic flow. The paper will present the flutter suppression control law design process, numerical nonlinear simulation and wind tunnel test results for the NACA 0012 benchmark active control wing model. The flutter suppression control law design processes using classical, and minimax techniques are described. A unified general formulation and solution for the minimax approach, based on the steady state differential game theory is presented. Design considerations for improving the control law robustness and digital implementation are outlined. It was shown that simple control laws when properly designed based on physical principles, can suppress flutter with limited control power even in the presence of transonic shocks and flow separation. In wind tunnel tests in air and heavy gas medium, the closed-loop flutter dynamic pressure was increased to the tunnel upper limit of 200 psf. The control law robustness and performance predictions were verified in highly nonlinear flow conditions, gain and phase perturbations, and spoiler deployment. A non-design plunge instability condition was also successfully suppressed.

Mukhopadhyay, Vivek↗

NASA NTRS1999

Transonic Flutter Suppression Control Law Design Using Classical and Optimal Techniques with Wind-Tunnel Results

The benchmark active controls technology and wind tunnel test program at NASA Langley Research Center was started with the objective to investigate the nonlinear, unsteady aerodynamics and active flutter suppression of wings in transonic flow. The paper will present the flutter suppression control law design process, numerical nonlinear simulation and wind tunnel test results for the NACA 0012 benchmark active control wing model. The flutter suppression control law design processes using (1) classical, (2) linear quadratic Gaussian (LQG), and (3) minimax techniques are described. A unified general formulation and solution for the LQG and minimax approaches, based on the steady state differential game theory is presented. Design considerations for improving the control law robustness and digital implementation are outlined. It was shown that simple control laws when properly designed based on physical principles, can suppress flutter with limited control power even in the presence of transonic shocks and flow separation. In wind tunnel tests in air and heavy gas medium, the closed-loop flutter dynamic pressure was increased to the tunnel upper limit of 200 psf. The control law robustness and performance predictions were verified in highly nonlinear flow conditions, gain and phase perturbations, and spoiler deployment. A non-design plunge instability condition was also successfully suppressed.

Mukhopadhyay, Vivek↗