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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1990

New interplanetary proton fluence model

A new predictive engineering model for the interplanetary fluence of protons with above 10 MeV and above 30 MeV is described. The data set used is a combination of observations made from the earth's surface and from above the atmosphere between 1956 and 1963 and observations made from spacecraft in the vicinity of earth between 1963 and 1985. The data cover a time period three times as long as the period used in earlier models. With the use of this data set the distinction between 'ordinary proton events' and 'anomalously large events' made in earlier work disappears. This permitted the use of statistical analysis methods developed for 'ordinary events' on the entire data set. The greater than 10 MeV fluences at 1 AU calculated with the new model are about twice those expected on the basis of models now in use. At energies above 30 MeV, the old and new models agree. In contrast to earlier models, the results do not depend critically on the fluence from any one event and are independent of sunspot number. Mission probability curves derived from the fluence distribution are presented.

Feynman, Joan↗
NASA NTRS1990

Periodicities in the occurrence rate of solar proton events

Power spectral analyses of the time series of solar proton events during the past three solar cycles reveal a periodicity around 154 days. This feature is prominent in all of the cycles combined, cycles 19 and 21 individually, but is only weak in cycle 20. These results are consistent with the presence of similar periodicities between 152 and 155 days in the occurrence rate of major solar flares, the sunspot blocking function (Ps), the 10.7 cm radio flux (F10.7), and the sunspot number (Rz). This suggests that the circa 154-days periodicity may be a fundamental characteristic of the sun. Periods around 50-52 days are also found in the combined data set and in the three individual cycles, in general agreement with the detection of this periodicity in major flares in cycle 19, and in Ps, F10.7, and Rz in cycle 21. The cause of the 155 day period remains unknown. The spectra contain lines (or show power at frequencies) consistent with a model in which the periodicity is caused by differential rotation of active zones and a model in which it is related to beat frequencies between solar oscillations, as proposed by Wolff (1974, 1983).

Gabriel, S.↗
NASA NTRS1990

An estimate of the maximum speed of the solar wind, 1938-1989

In an effort to estimate the highest flow velocity that the solar wind has exhibited at earth during the past 50 years, geomagnetic storms that occurred from 1938 to 1989 were surveyed, and the storms that were preceded by a major proton flare were selected. For each identified flare-storm pair, the average speed ('transit speed') of the associated interplanetary shock from the interval between the flare onset and the sudden commencement of the geomagnetic storm was calculated. In each case, the maximum solar wind flow speed was inferred from an empirical relationship (derived for a sample of recent events) between the shock transit speed and the peak flow velocity of the associated transient stream, obtaining a distribution of maximum solar wind speeds, which presumably corresponds to a sample of the most energetic events of this 50-yr period. Results show no evidence for bulk flow velocities greater than the about 2000 km/sec value deduced by Zastenker et al. (1978) and Grunwaldt (1975) for the August 4, 1972 event.

Cliver, E. W.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Interplanetary proton fluence model - JPL 1991

We describe an updated predictive engineering model for the interplanetary fluence of protons with energies respectively greater than 1, 4, 10, 30, and 60 MeV. This has been the first opportunity to derive a model from a data set that has been collected in space over a long enough period of time to produce a valid sample of solar proton events. The model provides a quantitative basis for estimating the exposures to solar protons of spacecraft during missions of varying length and of surfaces and atmospheres of solar system objects. The data sets contain several major proton events comparable to the 1972 event. For the cases of the over 10 and over 30 MeV particles, the fluences are somewhat lower than in our earlier model No over 1, over 4, and over 60 MeV proton fluence models have been published in the literature previously. We present our results in a convenient graphical form which may be used to calculate the 1 AU fluence expected at a given confidence level as a function of the length of the exposure. A method of extending this estimate to other heliocentric distances is described.

Feynman, J.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Long-term persistence of solar activity

We examine the question of whether or not the non-periodic variations in solar activity are caused by a white-noise, random process. The Hurst exponent, which characterizes the persistence of a time series, is evaluated for the series of C-14 data for the time interval from about 6000 BC to 1950 AD. We find a constant Hurst exponent, suggesting that solar activity in the frequency range from 100 to 3000 years includes an important continuum component in addition to the well-known periodic variations. The value we calculate, H approximately 0.8, is significantly larger than the value of 0.5 that would correspond to variations produced by a white-noise process. This value is in good agreement with the results for the monthly sunspot data reported elsewhere, indicating that the physics that produces the continuum is a correlated random process and that it is the same type of process over a wide range of time interval lengths.

Ruzmaikin, Alexander↗
NASA NTRS1994

Coronal mass ejections and major solar flares: The great active center of March 1989

The solar flare and coronal mass ejection (CME) events associated with the large and complex March 1989 active region are discussed. This active region gave us a chance to study the relation of CME with truly major solar flares. The work concentrates on questions of the relation of CMEs and flares to one another and to other types of activity on the Sun. As expected, some major (X-3B class) flares had associated CMEs. However, an unexpected finding is that others did not. In fact, there is strong evidence that the X4-4B flare of March 9th had no CME. This lack of a CME for such an outstanding flare event has important implications to theories of CME causation.Apparently, not all major flares cause CMEs or are caused by CMEs. The relations between CMEs and other types of solar activity are also discussed. No filament disappearances are reported for major CMEs studied here. Comparing these results with other studies, CMEs occur in association with flares and with erupting prominences, but neither are required for a CME. The relation between solar structures showing flaring without filament eruptions and structures showing filament eruptions without flares becomes important. The evolutionary relation between an active flaring sunspot region and extensive filaments without sunspots is reviewed, and the concept of an 'evolving magnetic structure' (EMS) is introduced. It is suggested that all CMEs arise in EMSs and that CMEs provide a major path through which azimuthal magnetic fields escape form the Sun during the solar cycle.

Feynman, Joan↗
NASA NTRS1994

Long-term persistence of solar activity

The solar irradiance has been found to change by 0.1% over the recent solar cycle. A change of irradiance of about 0.5% is required to effect the Earth's climate. How frequently can a variation of this size be expected? We examine the question of the persistence of non-periodic variations in solar activity. The Huerst exponent, which characterizes the persistence of a time series (Mandelbrot and Wallis, 1969), is evaluated for the series of C-14 data for the time interval from about 6000 BC to 1950 AD (Stuiver and Pearson, 1986). We find a constant Huerst exponent, suggesting that solar activity in the frequency range of from 100 to 3000 years includes an important continuum component in addition to the well-known periodic variations. The value we calculate, H approximately equal to 0.8, is significantly larger than the value of 0.5 that would correspond to variations produced by a white-noise process. This value is in good agreement with the results for the monthly sunspot data reported elsewhere, indicating that the physics that produces the continuum is a correlated random process (Ruzmaikin et al., 1992), and that is is the same type of process over a wide range of time interval lengths. We conclude that the time period over which an irradiance change of 0.5% can be expected to occur is significantly shorter than that which would be expected for variations produced by a white-noise process.

Ruzmaikin, Alexander↗
NASA NTRS1995

The initiation of coronal mass ejections by newly emerging magnetic flux

We present observational evidence that eruptions of quiescent filaments and associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) occur as a consequence of the destabilization of large-scale coronal arcades due to interactions between these structures and new and growing active regions. Both statistical and case studies have been carried out. In a case study of a 'bulge' observed by the High-Altitude Observatory Solar Maximum Mission coronagraph, the high-resolution magnetograms from the Big Bear Solar Observatory show newly emerging and rapidly changing flux in the magnetic fields that apparently underlie the bugle. For other case studies and in the statistical work the eruption of major quiescent filaments was taken as a proxy for CME eruption. We have found that two thirds of the quiescent-filament-associated CMEs occurred after substantial amounts of new magnetic flux emerged in the vicinity of the filament. In addition, in a study of all major quiescent filaments and active regions appearing in a 2-month period we found that 17 of the 22 filaments that were associated with new active regions erupted and 26 of the 31 filaments that were not associated with new flux did not erupt. In all cases in which the new flux was oriented favorably for reconnection with the preexisting large-scale coronal arcades; the filament was observed to erupt. The appearance of the new flux in the form of new active regions begins a few days before the eruption and typically is still occurring at the time of the eruption. A CME initiation scenario taking account of these observational results is proposed.

Feynman, J.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Intermittent turbulence in solar wind from the south polar hole

The magnetic fields measured by the Ulysses spacecraft are used to study solar wind turbulence in the fast solar wind from the south polar hole. The spacecraft was at about 46 deg south latitude and 3.9 AU. For a magnetic field with a Gaussian distribution the power spectrum (second-order structure function) is sufficient to completely characterize the turbulence. However, the actual distribution is non-Gaussian so that the effects of intermittency must be taken into account. The observed spectral exponents include effects of intermittency and cannot be directly compared with the standard second-order spectral theories such as the Kolmogorov and Kraichnan theories. To permit a better comparison of the observations with the theoretical models, we study the structure characteristics of the data. We find the exponents of the second-order structure functions (power spectra) and the higher-order normalized structure functions for the components of the magnetic fields. We show that these sets of exponents can be approximately described by two basic numbers: the spectral exponent and the intermittency exponent. The intermittency exponent characterizes correlation properties of the energy cascade from large to small scales. Before comparing the observations to the theoretically expected values, a reduction must be made to the observed spectral exponent. The amount of the reduction depends on both the intermittency exponent and the model of the energy cascade assumed in the turbulence theory. We reduce the measured spectral indices according to a simple model for Alfven turbulence that is described here. We then compare our reduced spectral indices with second-order spectral theory. The reduced spectral indices for the period range of 1 min to about a half hour are remarkably constant and in good agreement with the value of 3/2. Thus our treatment is self-consistent. Our tentative conclusion is that the high-frequency turbulence appears to agree with the model of random-phased Alfven waves. This tentative conclusion must be tested by further theoretical and observational work.

Ruzmaikin, A. A.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Distributions of the interplanetary magnetic field revisited

The adequacy of the power spectrum to characterize the variations of a parameter depends on whether or not the parameter has a Gaussian distribution. We here perform very simple tests of Gaussianity on the distribution. We here perform very simple tests of Gaussianity on the distributions of the magnitudes of the interplanetary magnetic field, and on the distributions of the components; that is, we find the first four cumulants of the distributions (mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis) and their solar cycle variations. We find, consistent with other recent analyses, that the traditional distributions of the 1-hour averaged magnitude are not distributed normally or lognomally as has often been assumed and the 1-hour averaged z component is found to have a nonzero kurtosis. Thus the power spectrum is insufficient to completely characterize these variations and polyspectra are needed. We have isolated variations in the 1/f frequency region of the spectrum and show that the distributions of the magnitudes have nonzero skewness and kurtosis, the magnitudes are not distributed lognormally, and the distributions of the components have nonzero kurtosis. Thus higher-order spectra are again needed for a full characterization.

Feynman, Joan↗
NASA NTRS1995

Radial evolution of the high/low frequency breakpoint in magnetic field spectra

The spectra of magnetic field variations in the solar wind show different behavior in two frequency regions; a high frequency region in which the spectral exponent is about -5/3 and a low frequency region in which it is typically -1. The two types of variations must arise from different processes and a clue to the relationship between the spectral regions lies in understanding the behavior of the breakpoint between the spectral regions. Studies of the average behavior of spectra have shown that the break point occurs at about 3.5 hours at 1 AU. It is also known that, on average, the breakpoint occurs at lower frequencies with larger heliocentric distances. Ideally however, instead of the average properties of the spectra, we would like to know how the breakpoint evolves in particular samples of the solar wind as they propagate to larger heliocentric distances. In the study reported here we take advantage of the fact that, in 1974, Pioneer 10 (4.4 AU) and Pioneer 11 (5.6 AU) were close to being co-aligned and being aligned with the Earth. Solar wind observed at Earth can be closely matched with solar wind later observed at P10 and P11. We here compare the breakpoint observed at Earth with that observed at Pioneers 10 and 11 for matched samples of the wind.

Feynman, J.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Solar energetic particle events: Statistical modelling and prediction

Solar energetic particle events (SEPEs) can have a significant effect on the design and operation of earth orbiting and interplanetary spacecraft. In relation to this, the calculation of proton fluences and fluxes are considered, describing the current state of the art in statistical modeling. A statistical model that can be used for the estimation of integrated proton fluences for different mission durations of greater than one year is reviewed. The gaps in the modeling capabilities of the SEPE environment, such as a proton flux model, alpha particle and heavy ion models and solar cycle variations are described together with the prospects for the prediction of events using neural networks.

Gabriel, S. B.↗
NASA NTRS1997

A spacecraft going behind the Sun will support SOHO

The problems that can be solved by combining the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and the magnetic structures on and around the sun (MagSonas) observations are discussed. A magneto-Doppler imager and X and Ka band linearly polarized radio signals sent to the other side of the sun can support extended SOHO mission. This is the purpose of the MagSonas mission. The MagSonas radio system, designed to serve as spacecraft communications and a sounding coronal magnetic field, is described.

Ruzmaikin, A.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Early Prediction of Geomagnetic Storms and Space Hazards

Solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can cause hazadous high-energy particles and geomagnetic storms that, in the more serious instances, can disrupt Earth power grids, communications, and satellites.

space weather space physics solar physics microspa↗
NASA NTRS2000

Early Prediction of Geomagnetic Storms

A detailed conceptual design has been developed for a mission and microspacecraft that can provide information needed to answer key questions about the physics of space weather and also both provide and validate a system for early warning of hazardous space weather.

design AU band Geomagnetic Storms↗