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PFAS Treatment Pilot Study using Granular Activated Carbon at Kennedy Space Center, Florida

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) have been found in investigative derived waste (IDW) generated from groundwater sampling and remediation activities conducted at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida. PFAS are exceptionally strong compounds because of carbon-fluorine bonds resulting in resistance to degradation, low chemical reactivity, compound stability, and persistence in the environment. The regulatory status of PFAS is very dynamic. PFAS is not considered a hazardous waste and has no federal or state (Florida) cleanup requirements at this time. Due to the current and unknown future of the regulatory and treatment landscape, non-hazardous IDW, based upon site volatile organic compounds (VOCs) regulated under Title 40 of Federal Regulations part 261, containing PFAS is not being processed for off-site waste disposal under KSC’s Resource Conservation and Recovery Act permit as a proactive precaution. Long-term storage of aqueous IDW in the meantime was determined to be inadequate due to the potential for spills and/or leaks. A very limited number treatment methods are available at this time. To date, granular activated carbon (GAC) and ion exchange technologies have been found to be some of the most consistent treatment options for removing PFAS from aqueous media. Therefore, a pilot study using GAC was developed at KSC to determine the feasibility of treating non-hazardous IDW containing PFAS to reduce the total volume of PFAS waste and minimize the risk of leaks or spills while storing the waste until complete PFAS-destructive treatment options are more readily available. NASA wanted the pilot test to be able to demonstrate the ability to completely remove 18 PFAS compounds and the site VOCs to below the state of Florida groundwater cleanup target levels (GCTLs).

Michael J Deliz↗
NASA NTRS2024

Launch Complex 39B, SWMU 009, 2023 Performance Monitoring and Air Sparge Expansion Construction Completion Report, Kennedy Space Center, Florida

The 2023 Performance Monitoring and Construction Completion Report (PM-CCR) presents the findings, observations, and results for Air Sparging (AS) operations and expansion activities, as well as sitewide groundwater monitoring for Launch Complex 39B (LC39B), Solid Waste Management Unit (SWMU) 009, at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida. The reporting period for activities covered under this PM-CCR is from January 1, 2023, to December 31, 2023. At LC39B, AS operations began in 2017 in the area west of the launch pad, in the liquid oxygen (LOX) tank area located northwest of the launch pad, and in an area outside of the perimeter fence to protect nearby Outstanding Florida Waters (OFW). The LC39B AS system was installed with 279 AS wells to depths ranging from 23 to 60 feet below land surface (bls), including the sump, correlating to top of screen depths ranging from 20 to 57 feet bls. In December 2022, a total of 22 AS wells were abandoned to support launch pad crane operations, and in November 2023, the system was expanded with five additional AS wells installed to 13 or 17 feet bls near the LOX tank. The remedial objective of the LC39B AS Interim Measure (IM) is to actively decrease concentrations of contaminants of concern (COCs) in groundwater, specifically trichloroethene (TCE), cis-1,2-Dichloroethene (cDCE), and vinyl chloride (VC), to less than their respective Natural Attenuation Default Concentrations (NADCs), so LC39B can transition into a Long-Term Monitoring (LTM) program. This PM-CCR presents the following information for LC39B: • AS system operations and maintenance (O&M) (Year 7 of operation) from January 2023 to December 2023, to include AS trailer relocation in March 2023 and subsequent replacement and re-start in June 2023. • Construction completion details for AS system expansion, which included installation of five new AS wells and one new monitoring well in November 2023. As part of expansion activities, soil samples were also collected for petroleum analysis; no exceedances were identified, and no further investigation for petroleum is warranted. • Performance monitoring results for groundwater sampling events conducted in May/June 2023 (30 wells) and November 2023 (31 wells) in the AS IM area and in the Low Concentration Plume (LCP) areas located north and east of the launch pad for volatile organic compound (VOC) analysis. • Sampling results for one monitoring well, LOX-IW0012S, which is sampled for aluminum on an annual basis (May/June 2023). This well was resampled in November 2023 for both total and dissolved aluminum. Due to a communication error with the laboratory, the May/June 2023 sample was analyzed for total aluminum only. • Groundwater sampling results for per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) collected from seven monitoring wells during the May/June 2023 event to further investigate the Former Sewage Treatment Plant #6 and Percolation Pond area, west of the launch pad. O&M and performance monitoring results show that the AS system at LC39B is operating as designed and meeting performance criteria. Overall runtime was 45 percent (%) during the reporting period (January to December), but the operational runtime was 78% during the timeframe when the system could run (June to December). The most significant downtime contributor was post-launch crane operations following the Artemis launch on November 16, 2022, which lasted until June 2023. During that timeframe, the AS trailer at LC39B was relocated to another KSC remediation site (Wilson Corners) and was subsequently replaced with the AS trailer from the Paint & Oil Locker (POL) remediation site at KSC to resume AS system operations. Performance monitoring results in the AS IM and LCP areas continue to show reduction in COC concentrations over time when compared to baseline levels. In 2023, only one monitoring well (MW0048) detected a COC exceeding its NADC (VC at 740 micrograms per liter [µg/L]), which marks the baseline result for this new well installed during system expansion. Across the rest of the site, VC concentrations have declined or remained stable during the 2023 sampling events. Excluding MW0048, the highest VC result in 2023 was during the May/June sampling event with a concentration of 63 µg/L at MW0032, which is located near MW0048 and the AS expansion area by the LOX tank. TCE was detected in select monitoring wells in the IM area in 2023, but only two locations exceeded the State of Florida Groundwater Cleanup Target Level (GCTL): MW0032 (21 µg/L in May/June 2023 and 9.1 µg/L in November 2023) and MW0036 (5.0 µg/L in November 2023). MW0036 is also located near the LOX tank, on the north side, where the AS system is still operational (Zone Z4). cDCE and trans-1,2-dichloroethene concentrations were less than laboratory method detection limits or their respective GCTLs in all wells sampled in 2023. Near the OFW located northwest of the launch complex, all COC concentrations were less than laboratory method detection limits from monitoring wells (MW0039, MW0040, and LOXTA0002S) sampled in 2023. Aluminum results from LOX-IW0012S, which has been sampled routinely since 2006, detected a total aluminum concentration of 3,900 µg/L during the May/June 2023 sampling event. Results from the November 2023 event detected 5,700 µg/L for total aluminum and 5,500 µg/L for dissolved aluminum. These concentrations slightly decreased from the previous year but remain relatively consistent with historical detections. Aluminum will continue to be sampled on an annual basis at this well as results still exceed the GCTL of 200 µg/L and the Upper Limit of the KSC Background Concentration of 280 µg/L. PFAS results detected nine different PFAS compounds (out of 32 analyzed) from seven wells sampled. Two PFAS compounds, perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), currently have FDEP Provisional GCTLs of 70 nanograms per liter (ng/L). All seven samples collected resulted in concentrations less than the FDEP Provisional GCTLs for both PFAS compounds; no exceedances were observed. PFOS and PFOA also have assigned United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCLs) of 4 nanograms per liter (ng/L). None of the PFOS results exceeded the USEPA MCLs. PFOA was detected in two samples above the USEPA MCL at concentrations of 5.8 ng/L (ECS-IW0009I) and 5.5 ng/L (ECS-IW0009S). Three other PFAS compounds, perfluorohexanesulfonic acid (PFHxS), perfluoro-n-nonanoic acid (PFNA), and hexafluoropropylene oxide dimer acid (GenX), currently have USEPA MCLs of 10 ng/L. PFHxS, PFNA, and GenX were not detected at concentrations greater than their respective USEPA MCLs in any of the seven wells. PFAS compounds without FDEP Provisional GCTLs or USEPA MCLs were screened against USEPA RSLs. No other detections exceeded their respective USEPA RSLs. Additional PFAS sampling will be conducted as part of a future PFAS Site Assessment. Based on O&M activities and performance monitoring, the following is recommended for LC39B: • Continue with Year 8 AS system operation within Zone Z4, which includes the AS expansion area. Zone Z3, which has been off since 2018, should remain off as no rebound has been observed. Zones Z1 and Z2, which were turned off at the end of 2022, will remain shut down as monitoring well results have consistently been below GCTLs or have low-level detections with stable or decreasing trends (Meeting Minute 2402-M10, Decision 2402-D30). • Continue with performance monitoring in 2024 with the same monitoring well network as 2023, except with the addition of MW0048 in both semi-annual events. Baseline concentrations for this well were collected during the November 2023 performance monitoring event. Semi-annual sampling should be planned for the May 2024 and November 2024 timeframes (Meeting Minute 2402-M10, Decision 2402-D31). • Continue sampling monitoring well, LOX-IW0012S, for aluminum (total and dissolved) on an annual basis in May 2024. It is also recommended to re-develop this well prior to the next sampling event (Meeting Minute 2402-M10, Decision 2402-D32). The above recommendations for LC39B were presented at the February 2024 KSCRT Meeting, with Team consensus reached on the path forward. The contents of this PM-CCR were also presented at this meeting.

Deborah M Wilson↗
NASA NTRS2025

Components Refurbishment and Chemical Analysis Facility, SWMU #041 - Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances Site Assessment Report Kennedy Space Center, Florida

This PFAS Site Assessment (SA) Report presents the activities and results associated with PFAS investigations at the Components Refurbishment and Chemical Analysis (CRCA) facility located at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida. In 2022, CRCA was identified as an Area of Potential Concern because the facility stores several potential PFAS-containing chemicals. A groundwater sample collected from an onsite monitoring well detected PFOA and PFOS at concentrations greater than State of Florida provisional Groundwater Cleanup Target Levels (pGCTLs). PFAS SA activities were conducted between March 2022 and February 2024. During this timeframe, a total of 16 direct-push technology (DPT) locations and 82 discrete samples were collected from these locations, along with 90 monitoring well samples. The analytical data screening process focused on State of Florida pGCTLs and United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Regional Screening Level (RSLs) from November 2023 to evaluate the data. Analytical results identified PFOS, PFOA, and PFBA at concentrations exceeding their respective RSLs at each depth interval (shallow, intermediate, and deep). PFOS and PFOA had the largest footprint of RSL exceedances in each depth interval, but pGCTL exceedances were only observed at limited locations in the shallow and intermediate intervals. PFBA had the highest detections of any PFAS compound, with concentrations exceeding 180,000 nanograms per liter (ng/L), which is 100-times the RSL of 1,800 ng/L in the shallow and intermediate intervals and 10-times the RSL in the deep interval. The maximum PFBA detection was 841,000 ng/L at shallow monitoring well, MW0006. The PFAS SA also included samples collected from the onsite hydraulic containment system (HCS) which was installed to control and treat the onsite chlorinated volatile organic compound (CVOC) plume. Influent and effluent aqueous samples were collected monthly from the system. PFAS concentrations were relatively the same for both influent and effluent samples, indicating that while the HCS has been effective for CVOC treatment, it does not provide any additional treatment for PFAS compounds. Since the HCS has achieved its objectives, the system was shut down in December 2024. PFAS data gaps still exist, to include surface water and soil, which were not sampled during this SA. Soil sampling near the Chemical Process Area is recommended. Surface water and soil sampling at select stormwater outfalls is also recommended. Additionally, further groundwater sampling is recommended (DPT and monitoring well) in all depth intervals to delineate the extent of PFAS impacts at CRCA.

K Alex Murphy↗
NASA NTRS2025

Converter Compressor Building, SWMU 089 Monitoring Well 21 Area Implementation Work Plan Kennedy Space Center, Florida

This Implementation Work Plan (IWP) was prepared by Tetra Tech, Inc., for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) under Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity (IDIQ) Contract 80KSC019D0011/80KSC019F0070, for the implementation of a bioremediation Interim Measure (IM) at the Converter Compressor Building (CCB) site located at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida. The location of CCB within KSC is shown on Figure A-1. CCB has been designated as Solid Waste Management Unit (SWMU) 089 under KSC’s Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) Corrective Action Program. The overall Corrective Action Objective (CAO) for CCB is to reduce concentrations of trichloroethene (TCE), cis-1,2-dichloroethene (cDCE), trans-1,2-dichloroethene (tDCE), and vinyl chloride (VC) to less than State of Florida Groundwater Cleanup Target Levels (GCTLs). The objective for the IM associated with this IM is to reduce groundwater concentrations for the contaminants of concern (COCs) to less than their Natural Default Attenuation Concentrations (NADCs) within the Monitoring Well 21 Area (herein referred to as MW21 Area) via bioremediation injections to support transition to long term monitoring (LTM). This IWP describes the activities that will be performed for the treatment of the MW21 Area. The Revision 1 CCB MW21 Area Interim Measure Work Plan (IMWP; NASA, 2024), which was approved by the Florida Department of Environmental Protection (FDEP) on December 26, 2024, was used as the design basis for this IWP.

Mark Jonnet↗
DOE OSTI2021

Absorbing the Sun: Operational Practices and Balancing Reserves in Florida's Municipal Utilities

The Florida Reliability Coordinating Council (FRCC) power system is comprised of multiple balancing authorities ranging in size from Gainesville Regional Utilities (GRU) with a 2019 summer net firm demand of 429 MW to Florida Power & Light with a 2019 summer net firm demand of 22,510 MW; and including cooperative, municipal, and investor-owned utilities. As all of these balancing authorities are and have plants to continue installing significant quantities of utility-scale solar photovoltaics, one relevant question is how much operating reserves they will need to hold as solar penetrations increase. While there are estimates of how regulating and flexibility reserve requirements change with solar penetration, the literature almost exclusively focuses on large balancing authorities with sub-hourly dispatch. In this work we analyze how reserve needs change not only with solar photovoltaic penetration, but also balancing authority size and operational practices. We find that, measured as a fraction of load, smaller balancing authorities with less frequent load and solar forecasts and less frequent dispatch need more reserves. Such utilities' reserve needs also increase more with increasing solar deployment as compared to larger or more frequently dispatched balancing authorities. These impacts are most acute for GRU. We find that moving from day-ahead to hour-ahead load and solar forecasting and system dispatch could enable GRU to incorporate 32% solar generation with median reserves at 20% instead of 60% of load; and that median reserve needs could drop further to about 10% of load if Florida's municipal utilities formed a reserve sharing group and moved to sub-hourly dispatch.

balancing authority↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Grid Value of Ocean Current Energy in Florida: Preprint

Ocean current technology has been proposed as a potential contributor to Florida's energy portfolio. There has been limited investigation of how this energy would be valued when integrated into the Florida electrical grid. This study assesses three future grid scenarios to evaluate the impact of adding ocean current to each. NREL's capacity expansion model, Resource Planning Model, is used to identify the least-cost generation mix through 2050, with and without ocean current. The first scenario, Business as Usual, Base case assuming current policies, ocean current does not replace fossil-based technologies. In the second scenario, we allow solar and storage to have lower costs than the first scenario which allows ocean current to retire gas earlier and more variable generation technologies to be deployed. In the third scenario, the Florida carbon constraint 95 by 2050 from 2020 levels case, ocean current can play a bigger role in decarbonization than the two other cases when coupled with other technologies.

capacity expansion model↗
DOE OSTI2025

Passive Acoustic Monitoring Provides Insights into Avian Use of Energycane Cropping Systems in Southern Florida

Birds are important indicators of ecosystem health and provide a range of benefits to society. It is important, therefore, to understand the impacts of agricultural land use changes on bird populations. The cultivation of energycane (EC)—a sugarcane hybrid—for biofuel production represents one form of agricultural land use change in southern Florida. We used passive acoustic monitoring (PAM) to examine bird community use of experimental EC fields and other agricultural land uses at two study sites in southern Florida. We deployed 16 acoustic recorders in different study plots and used the automatic species identifier BirdNET to identify 40 focal bird species. We found seasonal differences in daily avian species diversity and richness between EC experimental plots and reference agricultural fields (corn fields, orchards, pastureland), and between time periods (pre-planting, post-planting). Daily avian species diversity and richness were lower in the EC experimental plots during Fall and Winter months when plants reached maximum height (>400 cm in some areas). Despite seasonal differences in daily measures of species diversity and richness, we found no differences in cumulative species richness, suggesting that there may be little overall (season-long) effects of EC production. These findings could provide insight to avian seasonal habitat preferences and underscore the potential limitations of PAM in areas experiencing dynamic vegetation changes. More research is needed to better understand if utilization of EC cropping systems results in positive or negative effects on avian populations (e.g., foraging habitat quality, predator–prey dynamics, nest success).

BirdNET↗
DOE OSTI2018

Invasion ecology of wild pigs (Sus scrofa) in Florida, USA: the role of humans in the expansion and colonization of an invasive wild ungulate

Wild pigs (Sus scrofa) are the most widely distributed invasive wild ungulate in the United States, yet the factors that influence wild pig dispersal and colonization at the regional level are poorly understood. Our objective was to use a population genetic approach to describe patterns of dispersal and colonization among populations to gain a greater understanding of the invasion process contributing to the expansion of this species. We used 52 microsatellite loci to produce individual genotypes for 482 swine sampled at 39 locations between 2014 and 2016. Our data revealed the existence of genetically distinct subpopulations (F ST = 0.1170, p < 0.05). We found evidence of both fine-scale subdivision among the sampling locations, as well as evidence of long term genetic isolation. Several locations exhibited significant admixture (interbreeding) suggesting frequent mixing of individuals among locations; up to 14% of animals were immigrants from other populations. This pattern of admixture suggested successive rounds of human-assisted translocation and subsequent expansion across Florida. We also found evidence of genetically distinct populations that were isolated from nearby populations, suggesting recent introduction by humans. In addition, proximity to wild pig holding facilities was associated with higher migration rates and admixture, likely due to the escape or release of animals. Taken together, these results suggest that human-assisted movement plays a major role in the ecology and rapid population growth of wild pigs in Florida.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Understanding the Drivers of Mobility during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Florida, USA Using a Machine Learning Approach

As of March 2021, the State of Florida, U.S.A. had accounted for approximately 6.67% of total COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus disease) cases in the U.S. The main objective of this research is to analyze mobility patterns during a three month period in summer 2020, when COVID-19 case numbers were very high for three Florida counties, Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties. To investigate patterns, as well as drivers, related to changes in mobility across the tri-county region, a random forest regression model was built using sociodemographic, travel, and built environment factors, as well as COVID-19 positive case data. Mobility patterns declined in each county when new COVID-19 infections began to rise, beginning in mid-June 2020. While the mean number of bar and restaurant visits was lower overall due to closures, analysis showed that these visits remained a top factor that impacted mobility for all three counties, even with a rise in cases. Our modeling results suggest that there were mobility pattern differences between counties with respect to factors relating, for example, to race and ethnicity (different population groups factored differently in each county), as well as social distancing or travel-related factors (e.g., staying at home behaviors) over the two time periods prior to and after the spike of COVID-19 cases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data-Driven Assessment of the Impact of Hurricanes Ian and Nicole: Natural and Armored Dunes in the Aftermath of Hurricanes on Florida’s Central East Coast

Hurricanes Ian and Nicole caused devastating destruction across Florida in September and November 2022, leaving widespread damage in their wakes. This study focuses on the assessment of barrier islands’ shorelines, encompassing natural sand dunes and dune vegetation as well as armored dunes with man-made infrastructure such as seawalls. High-resolution satellite imagery from Planet was used to assess the impacts of these hurricanes on the beach shorelines of Volusia, Flagler, and St. Johns Counties on the Florida Central East Coast. Shorefront vegetation was classified into two classes. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values were calculated before the hurricanes, one month after Hurricane Ian, one month after Hurricane Nicole, and one-year post landfall. LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) was incorporated to calculate vertical changes in the shorelines before and after the hurricanes. The results suggest that natural sand dunes were more resilient as they experienced less impact to vegetation and elevation and more substantial recovery than armored dunes. Moreover, the close timeframe of the storm events suggests a compound effect on the weakened dune systems. This study highlights the importance of understanding natural dune resilience to facilitate future adaptive management efforts because armored dunes may have long-term detrimental effects on hurricane-prone barrier islands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2020

Variation of Florida scrub vegetation along gradients of soil pH and landscape age on a barrier island complex

Florida scrub is a fire-maintained shrub vegetation of well-drained, sandy soils associated with ridge systems that originated as coastal dunes. It is unique to Florida and supports many rare plants and animals. Between 1992 and 2005, we sampled 30 stands of long-unburned scrub with 196 line-intercept transects (15 m length) across the Merritt Island-Cape Canaveral barrier island complex where dune ridges range from relatively recent to > 30,000 years old with a range of soil leaching and reaction. These data allow us to determine the relationships of landscape age and soil reaction on community composition. We recorded community composition in < 0.5 m and > 0.5 m height strata. We determined mapped soil type for all transects; for 151 transects we determined soil pH of the 0–15 cm and 15–30 cm layers. Hierarchical cluster analysis of stands (N=30) and transects (N=196) using 41 species (of 53) present in > 2 transects gave two groups: coastal scrub with Quercus virginiana (shrub form) and Serenoa repens as dominant species on the most alkaline soils, and oak-saw palmetto scrub with Quercus chapmanii, Quercus geminata, Quercus myrtifolia, and S. repens on the strongly to somewhat acidic soils. Direct gradient analysis indicated that dominant species except S. repens varied from acidic to alkaline soils. Indicator species analysis identified seven species that indicated acidic soils and five that indicated alkaline soils (P < 0.01). Nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMS) ordination at the stand level separated the two groups along the first axis, and NMS ordination of the transect data showed the gradient of coastal to oak-saw palmetto scrub. Position of transects on the first axis was related to soil pH class, and to measured pH of the 0–15 cm and 15–30 cm layers. Soils show a progressive leaching of shell material from the surface horizons followed by podsolization; this process takes > 4,000 years. Our results indicate substantial differences between the community composition of scrub vegetation on recent alkaline soils compared to leached acidic soils.

Barrier island↗
NASA NTRS2022

Quantifying Mangrove Canopy Regrowth and Recovery After Hurricane Irma With Large-Scale Repeat Airborne Lidar in the Florida Everglades

Hurricane Irma caused significant damages to mangrove forested wetlands in south Florida, including defoliation, tree snapping, and uprooting. Previous studies have used optical satellite imagery to estimate large-scale forest disturbance and resilience patterns. However, satellite images alone cannot provide measurements of vertical mangrove structure. In this study, we used dense point cloud data collected by NASA Goddard’s LiDAR, Hyperspectral, and Thermal (G-LiHT) airborne imager before (March 2017) and after (December 2017 and March 2020) Hurricane Irma to quantify the recovery, or lack thereof, of the three-dimensional (3D) mangrove forest structure. Recent resilience and vulnerability models developed from Landsat time series following the storm were used to group the lidar data into distinct disturbance-recovery classes. We then analyzed lidar-based forest canopy within each of the recovery classes to test a suite of forest structural characteristics. Our results indicate that 77.0 % of the survey area experienced canopy height loss three months after Hurricane Irma, whereby the majority of canopy height loss occurred in areas with the tallest mangrove forests (i.e., 15–25 m tall). Our analysis shows that the mangrove canopy height in South Florida increased by an average 0.26 m from December 2017 to March 2020, with most of the forest (84.7 % of the survey area) experiencing canopy height regrowth. However, only 38.1 % of the survey area has recovered to pre-storm canopy height. The distribution of canopy height was significantly altered by Hurricane Irma in the low and intermediate resilience classes, but were not significantly different 2.5 years later. Indeed, in areas of low resilience, little to no vertical change has occurred suggesting the absence of canopy regrowth and natural regeneration. Conversely, mangroves in high resilience class, which are dominated by shorter canopies (<5 m), were not heavily damaged by the storm and have maintained the same structural attributes as those before Hurricane Irma. Our findings highlight that hurricane disturbances significantly alter mangrove forest canopy structure, but recovery of vertical structure varies by resilience classes, species composition, and canopy height.

Lidar↗
DOE OSTI2016

Future hurricane storm surge risk for the U.S. gulf and Florida coasts based on projections of thermodynamic potential intensity

Coastal populations in the global tropics and sub-tropics are vulnerable to the devastating impacts of hurricane storm surge and this risk is only expected to rise under climate change. In this study, we address this issue for the U.S. Gulf and Florida coasts. Using the framework of Potential Intensity, observations and output from coupled climate models, we show that the future large-scale thermodynamic environment may become more favorable for hurricane intensification. Under the RCP 4.5 emissions scenario and for the peak hurricane season months of August–October, we show that the mean intensities of Atlantic hurricanes may increase by 1.8–4.2 % and their lifetime maximum intensities may increase by 2.7–5.3 % when comparing the last two decades of the 20th and 21st centuries. We then combine our estimates of hurricane intensity changes with projections of sea-level rise to understand their relative impacts on future storm surge using simulations with the National Weather Service’s SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes) model for five historical hurricanes that made landfall in the Gulf of Mexico and Florida. Considering uncertainty in hurricane intensity changes and sea-level rise, our results indicate a median increase in storm surge ranging between 25 and 47 %, with changes in hurricane intensity increasing future storm surge by about 10 % relative to the increase that may result from sea level rise alone, with highly non-linear response of population at risk.

Climate change↗
DOE OSTI2024

Future Climate Projections for South Florida: Improving the Accuracy of Air Temperature and Precipitation Extremes With a Hybrid Statistical Bias Correction Technique

Projecting future climate variables is essential for comprehending the potential impacts on hydroclimatic hazards like floods and droughts. Evaluating these impacts is challenging due to the coarse spatial resolution of global climate models (GCMs); therefore, bias correction is widely used. Here, we applied two statistical methods—standard empirical quantile mapping (EQM) and a hybrid approach, EQM with linear correction (EQM-LIN)—to bias correct precipitation and air temperature simulated by nine GCMs. We used historical observations from 20 weather stations across South Florida to project future climate under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Compared to the EQM, the hybrid EQM-LIN method improved R 2 of daily quantiles by up to 30% over the historical period and improved MAE up to 70% in months that contain most extreme values. Projected extreme precipitation at the weather stations showed that, compared to the EQM-LIN, the EQM method underestimates the high quantiles by up to 26% in SSP585. The projected changes in annual maximum precipitation from historical period (1985–2014) to near future (2040–2069) and far future (2070–2100) were between 2% and 16% across the study area. Projected future precipitation suggested a slight decrease during summer but an increase in fall. This, along with rising summer temperatures, suggested that South Florida can experience rapid oscillations from warmer summers and increased flooding in fall under future climate. Additionally, our comparative analyses with globally and nationally downscaled studies showed that such coarse scale studies do not represent the climatic extremes well, particularly for high quantile precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Long distance seawater intrusion through a karst conduit network in the Woodville Karst Plain, Florida

Five periods of increased electrical conductivity have been found in the karst conduits supplying one of the largest first magnitude springs in Florida with water. Numerous well-developed conduit networks are distributed in the Woodville Karst Plain (WKP), Florida and connected to the Gulf of Mexico. A composite analysis of precipitation and electrical conductivity data provides strong evidence that the increases in conductivity are directly tied to seawater intrusion moving inland and traveling 11 miles against the prevailing regional hydraulic gradient from Spring Creek Spring Complex (SCSC), a group of submarine springs at the Gulf Coast. A geochemical analysis of samples from the spring vent rules out anthropogenic contamination and upwelling regional recharge from the deep aquifer as sources of the rising conductivity. The interpretation is supported by the conceptual model established by prior researchers working to characterize the study area. This paper documents the first and longest case of seawater intrusion in the WKP, and also indicates significant possibility of seawater contamination through subsurface conduit networks in a coastal karst aquifer.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Grid Value of Ocean Current Energy in Florida

Ocean current energy technology has been proposed as a potential contributor to Florida's energy portfolio. There has been limited investigation of how this energy would be valued when integrated into the Florida electrical grid. This study assesses three future grid scenarios to evaluate the impact of adding zero-cost ocean current energy to each. The Resource Planning Model, a tool developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, is used to identify the least-cost generation mix through 2050, with and without ocean current energy. The first scenario is a base case and assumes existing policies in which the addition of ocean current energy does not retire fossil-based technologies but variable generation technologies. In the second scenario, solar and storage technologies are lower cost, and the addition of ocean current generation enables those technologies along with wind to retire existing natural gas units earlier. In the third scenario, which requires a 95% reduction in carbon emissions from 2020 levels by 2050, ocean current energy can play a role in decarbonization along with other variable generation technologies. This analysis is intended to inform stakeholders on the opportunity, potential challenges, and overall value to the grid of ocean current technology from a reliability and availability focused perspective.

capacity expansion model↗
DOE OSTI2019

Short-term response to season of burn by amphibians and reptiles in a Florida longleaf pine – wiregrass sandhill

We investigated how herpetofauna respond to burning and burn season in longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) sandhills by contrasting preburn species richness, diversity, and evenness and captures of six reptile and six amphibian species to the first (Y+1) or second (Y+2) year after burn or between dormant-season burns (DSB) and growing-season burns (GSB). Responses to burning overall or burn season were inconsistent among species; several showed no response, whereas others responded positively or negatively. Most responses were evident only in Y+1. Reptile species richness, diversity, and evenness responses were not detected. Amphibian richness increased after burning overall; diversity and evenness decreased more in GSB than in DSB in Y+1. Southern toad (Anaxyrus terrestris (Bonnaterre, 1789)) captures increased and Florida crowned snake (Tantilla relicta Telford, 1966) captures decreased following burns overall in Y+1. Ground skink (Scincella lateralis (Say in James, 1823)) captures increased more in DSB than GSB in Y+1. Florida gopher frog (Lithobates capito (LeConte, 1855)) and southeastern five-lined skink (Plestiodon inexpectatus; Taylor, 1932) captures increased, and oak toad (Anaxyrus quercicus (Holbrook, 1840)) decreased more in GSB than DSB in Y+2. Responses were likely due to changes in aboveground activity affecting captures or (for amphibians especially) annual variability in captures unrelated to burns. Our results indicated that reptiles and amphibians of sandhills are resilient to short-term effects of burning overall and burn season.

Forestry↗
DOE OSTI2021

Pooling Data Improves Multimodel IDF Estimates over Median-Based IDF Estimates: Analysis over the Susquehanna and Florida

Traditional multimodel methods for estimating future changes in precipitation intensity, duration, and frequency (IDF) curves rely on mean or median of models’ IDF estimates. Such multimodel estimates are impaired by large estimation uncertainty, shadowing their efficacy in planning efforts. Here, assuming that each climate model is one representation of the underlying data generating process, i.e., the Earth system, we propose a novel extension of current methods through pooling model data: (i) evaluate performance of climate models in simulating the spatial and temporal variability of the observed annual maximum precipitation (AMP), (ii) bias-correct and pool historical and future AMP data of reasonably performing models, and (iii) compute IDF estimates in a nonstationary framework from pooled historical and future model data. Pooling enhances fitting of the extreme value distribution to the data and assumes that data from reasonably performing models represent samples from the “true” underlying data generating distribution. Through Monte Carlo simulations with synthetic data, we show that return periods derived from pooled data have smaller biases and lesser uncertainty than those derived from ensembles of individual model data. We apply this method to NA-CORDEX models to estimate changes in 24-h precipitation intensity–frequency (PIF) estimates over the Susquehanna watershed and Florida peninsula. Our approach identifies significant future changes at more stations compared to median-based PIF estimates. The analysis suggests that almost all stations over the Susquehanna and at least two-thirds of the stations over the Florida peninsula will observe significant increases in 24-h precipitation for 2–100-yr return periods.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗