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NASA NTRS2000

Uncertainty Analysis of Decomposing Polyurethane Foam

Sensitivity/uncertainty analyses are necessary to determine where to allocate resources for improved predictions in support of our nation's nuclear safety mission. Yet, sensitivity/uncertainty analyses are not commonly performed on complex combustion models because the calculations are time consuming, CPU intensive, nontrivial exercises that can lead to deceptive results. To illustrate these ideas, a variety of sensitivity/uncertainty analyses were used to determine the uncertainty associated with thermal decomposition of polyurethane foam exposed to high radiative flux boundary conditions. The polyurethane used in this study is a rigid closed-cell foam used as an encapsulant. Related polyurethane binders such as Estane are used in many energetic materials of interest to the JANNAF community. The complex, finite element foam decomposition model used in this study has 25 input parameters that include chemistry, polymer structure, and thermophysical properties. The response variable was selected as the steady-state decomposition front velocity calculated as the derivative of the decomposition front location versus time. An analytical mean value sensitivity/uncertainty (MV) analysis was used to determine the standard deviation by taking numerical derivatives of the response variable with respect to each of the 25 input parameters. Since the response variable is also a derivative, the standard deviation was essentially determined from a second derivative that was extremely sensitive to numerical noise. To minimize the numerical noise, 50-micrometer element dimensions and approximately 1-msec time steps were required to obtain stable uncertainty results. As an alternative method to determine the uncertainty and sensitivity in the decomposition front velocity, surrogate response surfaces were generated for use with a constrained Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) technique. Two surrogate response surfaces were investigated: 1) a linear surrogate response surface (LIN) and 2) a quadratic response surface (QUAD). The LHS techniques do not require derivatives of the response variable and are subsequently relatively insensitive to numerical noise. To compare the LIN and QUAD methods to the MV method, a direct LHS analysis (DLHS) was performed using the full grid and timestep resolved finite element model. The surrogate response models (LIN and QUAD) are shown to give acceptable values of the mean and standard deviation when compared to the fully converged DLHS model.

Hobbs, Michael L.↗

NASA NTRS2009

4U 1909+07: A Well-Hidden Pearl

We present the first detailed spectral and timing analysis of the High Mass X-ray Binary (HMXB) 4U 1909+07 with INTEGRAL and RXTE. 4U 1909+07 is detected with an average of 2.4 cps in ISGRI. but shows flares up to approx.50 cps. The system shows a pulse period of 605 s, but we found that the period changes erratically around this value. The pulse profile is extremely energy dependent: while it shows a double peaked structure at low energies, the secondary pulse decreases rapidly with increasing energy and above 20 ke V only the primary pulse is visible. This evolution is consistent between peA, HEXTE and ISGRI. We find that the phase averaged spectrum can be well fitted with a photo-absorbed power law with a cutoff at high energies and a blackbody component. To investigate the peculiar pulse profile, we performed phase resolved spectral analysis. We find that a change in the cutoff energy is required to fit the changing spectrum of the different pulse phases

Fuerst, F.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Specification of the ISS Plasma Environment Variability

Quantifying the spacecraft charging risks and corresponding hazards for the International Space Station (ISS) requires a plasma environment specification describing the natural variability of ionospheric temperature (Te) and density (Ne). Empirical ionospheric specification and forecast models such as the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model typically only provide estimates of long term (seasonal) mean Te and Ne values for the low Earth orbit environment. Knowledge of the Te and Ne variability as well as the likelihood of extreme deviations from the mean values are required to estimate both the magnitude and frequency of occurrence of potentially hazardous spacecraft charging environments for a given ISS construction stage and flight configuration. This paper describes the statistical analysis of historical ionospheric low Earth orbit plasma measurements used to estimate Ne, Te variability in the ISS flight environment. The statistical variability analysis of Ne and Te enables calculation of the expected frequency of Occurrence of any particular values of Ne and Te, especially those that correspond to possibly hazardous spacecraft charging environments. The database used in the original analysis included measurements from the AE-C, AE-D, and DE-2 satellites. Recent work on the database has added additional satellites to the database and ground based incoherent scatter radar observations as well. Deviations of the data values from the IRI estimated Ne, Te parameters for each data point provide a statistical basis for modeling the deviations of the plasma environment from the IRI model output. This technique, while developed specifically for the Space Station analysis, can also be generalized to provide ionospheric plasma environment risk specification models for low Earth orbit over an altitude range of 200 km through approximately 1000 km.

Minow, Joseph I.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Specifying the ISS Plasma Environment

Quantifying the spacecraft charging risks and corresponding hazards for the International Space Station (ISS) requires a plasma environment specification describing the natural variability of ionospheric temperature (Te) and density (Ne). Empirical ionospheric specification and forecast models such as the International Reference Ionosphere (IN) model typically only provide estimates of long term (seasonal) mean Te and Ne values for the low Earth orbit environment. Knowledge of the Te and Ne variability as well as the likelihood of extreme deviations from the mean values are required to estimate both the magnitude and frequency of occurrence of potentially hazardous spacecraft charging environments for a given ISS construction stage and flight configuration. This paper describes the statistical analysis of historical ionospheric low Earth orbit plasma measurements used to estimate Ne, Te variability in the ISS flight environment. The statistical variability analysis of Ne and Te enables calculation of the expected frequency of occurrence of any particular values of Ne and Te, especially those that correspond to possibly hazardous spacecraft charging environments. The database used in the original analysis included measurements from the AE-C, AE-D, and DE-2 satellites. Recent work on the database has added additional satellites to the database and ground based incoherent scatter radar observations as well. Deviations of the data values from the IRI estimated Ne, Te parameters for each data point provide a statistical basis for modeling the deviations of the plasma environment from the IRI model output.

Minow, Joseph I.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Temperature histories of commercial flights at severe conditions from GASP data

The thermal environment of commercial aircraft from a data set gathered during the Global Atmospheric Sampling Program (GASP) is studied. The data set covers a four-year period of measurements. The report presents plots of airplane location and speed and atmospheric temperature as functions of elapsed time for 35 extreme-condition flights, selected by minimum values of several temperature parameters. One of these parameters, the severity factor, is an approximation of the in-flight wing-tank temperature. Representative low-severity-factor flight histories may be useful for actual temperature-profile inputs to design and research studies. Comparison of the GASP atmospheric temperatures to interpolated temperatures from National Meteorological Center and Global Weather Central analysis fields shows that the analysis temperatures are slightly biased toward warmer than actual temperatures, particularly over oceans and at extreme conditions.

Jasperson, W. H.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Future Intensity‐Duration‐Frequency Curves of Extreme Precipitation in the Midwest United States From Convection‐Permitting Modeling

Abstract During the last four decades, global warming has statistically significant intensified extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States (defined here as the region covering Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky), leading to increased risks to human life, property, and infrastructure. To enable climate change adaptation and resilience across various economic and social sectors in this region, updated information about future climate changes, specifically at finer spatial scales, is essential. Leveraging a new 150‐year dynamical downscaling data set at convection‐permitting resolution, this study introduces a framework to construct the projected future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves of heavy precipitation, which are prominent tools for infrastructure design and water resources management. This framework generates IDF curves at both sub‐daily and multi‐day duration utilizing hourly in situ observations as well as quantile‐based statistical techniques in bias‐correction and return levels selection. The assumption of non‐stationarity in the distribution parameter fitting process is also implemented in this workflow. Compared to historical IDF curves for 1980–2022, future projected IDF curves for 2058–2100 under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15% and 25%, respectively, across 74 stations, considering both annual and seasonal timescales. Future projections suggest that extreme precipitation events may become more severe across six investigated return periods, with longer return periods showing a greater increase. The frequency of future extreme precipitation events in the Midwest region is also projected to double. Furthermore, current results reveal spatial heterogeneity of future trends across stations owing to the high‐resolution input data set. Plain Language Summary This study investigates the evolving nature of extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States under a changing climate. By leveraging a high‐resolution dynamical downscaling data set, we construct projected intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves for future extreme rainfall events. These curves serve as vital tools for infrastructure planning and water resource management. Our analysis reveals a significant increase in both the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events in the region. Future projected IDF curves for the late century indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15%–25% compared to historical values. Moreover, the frequency of such events is expected to double. Spatial heterogeneity in future trends is observed across different stations within the Midwest, highlighting the importance of high‐resolution modeling in capturing localized climate variability. These findings underscore the urgent need for climate adaptation strategies to mitigate the increasing risks associated with extreme precipitation events in the region. Key Points This study introduces a workflow to construct future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves over the Midwest United States using a new convection‐permitting modeling data set The current IDF construction workflow reproduces well the historical observed IDF 30 curves in summer months with median relative errors of 2.4% among 74 stations and 6 investigated durations The projected IDF curves show diverse future trends of extreme precipitation across stations, with intensity increases of approximately 15% and 25% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively, and a doubling of frequency on average

Nguyen, Trung↗

NASA NTRS1976

Plasma diagnostic techniques in the ultraviolet - The C III density-sensitive lines in the sun

Spectra and spectroheliograms of the C III transitions at 977 and 1176 A are obtained with the Harvard extreme-ultraviolet spectrometer on Skylab. Analysis of the intensities of these lines, and of their density-sensitive ratio, indicates a wide range of temperature gradients and electron densities in the transition region of various solar features. From values of the observed ratio, we suggest necessary revisions to the excitation rates, and propose a relationship between the ratio and density. The significantly higher ratio found in active regions indicates a density increase of about a factor 2 relative to the network. In the quiet sun, there is no significant difference in density between network and cell interiors, but the uncertainty is as large as a factor 3. The very central 10% of the areas of cell interiors shows a significantly higher density than the mean value for cell interiors.

Dupree, A. K.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Non-Classical Stress Concentration Behavior in a Radically Stretched Hyperelastic Sheet Containing a Circular Hole

Non-classical stress concentration behavior in a stretched circular hyperelastic sheet (outer radius b = 10 in., thickness t = 0.0625 in.) containing a central hole (radius a = 0.5 in.) was analyzed. The hyperelastic sheet was subjected to different levels of remote radial stretchings. Nastran large-strain large-deformation analysis and the Blatz-Ko large deformation theory were used to calculate the equal-biaxial stress concentration factors K. The results show that the values of K calculated from the Blatz-Ko theory and Nastran are extremely close. Unlike the classical linear elasticity theory, which gives the constant K = 2 for the equal-biaxial stress field, the hyperelastic K values were found to increase with increased stretching and can exceed the value K = 6 at a remote radial extension ratio of 2.35. The present K-values compare fairly well with the K-values obtained by previous works. The effect of the hole-size on K-values was investigated. The values of K start to decrease from a hole radius a = 0.125 in. down to K = 1 (no stress concentration) as a shrinks to a = 0 in. (no hole). Also, the newly introduced stretch and strain magnification factors {K(sub λ),K(sub ε) } are also material- and deformation-dependent, and can increase from linear levels of {1.0, 4.0} and reaching {3.07, 4.61}, respectively at a remote radial extension ratio of 2.35.

stress concentration↗

NASA NTRS1973

Inflight thermodynamic properties

The inflight thermodynamic parameters (temperature, pressure, and density) of the atmosphere are presented. Mean and extreme values of the thermodynamic parameters given here can be used in application of many aerospace problems, such as: (1) research and planning and engineering design of remote earth sensing systems; (2) vehicle design and development; and (3) vehicle trajectory analysis, dealing with vehicle thrust, dynamic pressure, aerodynamic drag, aerodynamic heating, vibration, structural and guidance limitations, and reentry analysis. Atmospheric density plays a very important role in most of the above problems. A subsection on reentry is presented, giving atmospheric models to be used for reentry heating, trajectory, etc., analysis.

Brown, S. C.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Stratospheric NO and NO2 Abundances from ATMOS Solar-Occultation Measurements

Using results from a time-dependent photochemical model to calculate the diurnal variation of NO and NO2, we have corrected Atmospheric Trace MOlecule Spectroscopy (ATMOS) solar-occultation retrievals of the NO and NO2 abundances at 90' solar zenith angle. Neglecting to adjust for the rapid variation of these gases across the terminator results in potential errors in retrieved profiles of approximately 20% for NO2 and greater than 100% for NC at altitudes below 25 km. Sensitivity analysis indicates that knowledge of the local 03 and temperature profiles, rather than zonal mean or climatological conditions of these quantities, is required to obtain reliable retrievals of NO and NO2 in the lower stratosphere. Extremely inaccurate 03 or temperature values at 20 km can result in 50% errors in retrieved NO or NO2. Mixing ratios of NO in the mid-latitude, lower stratosphere measured by ATMOS during the November 1994 ATLAS-3 mission compare favorably with in situ ER-2 observations, providing strong corroboration of the reliability of the adjusted space-borne measurements.

Newchurch, M. J.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Characterization of the as Manufactured Variability in a CVI SiC/SiC Woven Composite

The microstructure of a 2D woven ceramic matrix composite displays significant variability and irregularity. For example, a chemical vapor infiltrated (CVI) SiC/SiC composite exhibits significant amount of porosity arranged in irregular patterns. Furthermore, the fiber tows within a ply frequently have irregular shape and spacing, and the stacked plies are often misaligned and irregularly nested within each other. The goal of an ongoing project at NASA Glenn is to investigate the effects of the complex microstructure and its variability on the properties and the durability of the material. One key requirement for this effort is the development of methods to characterize the distribution in as-fabricated ceramic matrix composite (CMC) microstructures with the objective of correlating microstructural distribution parameters with mechanical performance. An initial task in this effort was to perform quantitative image analysis of polished cross sections of CVI SiC/SiC composite specimens. This analysis provided sample distributions of various microstructural composite features, including: inter-tow pore sizes and shapes, transverse sectioned tow sizes and shapes, and within ply tow spacing. This information can then be used to quantify the effect of extreme values of these features on the local stress state with the goal of determining the likelihood of matrix cracking at a given external load.

Bonacuse, Peter J.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Statistical analysis of multivariate atmospheric variables

Topics covered include: (1) estimation in discrete multivariate distributions; (2) a procedure to predict cloud cover frequencies in the bivariate case; (3) a program to compute conditional bivariate normal parameters; (4) the transformation of nonnormal multivariate to near-normal; (5) test of fit for the extreme value distribution based upon the generalized minimum chi-square; (6) test of fit for continuous distributions based upon the generalized minimum chi-square; (7) effect of correlated observations on confidence sets based upon chi-square statistics; and (8) generation of random variates from specified distributions.

Tubbs, J. D.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Designing ceramic components with the CARES computer program

NASA-Lewis has developed a public-domain computer program, designated 'Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures' (CARES) for calculating the fast-fracture reliability of macroscopically isotropic ceramic components subjected to the complex thermomechanical loadings typical of heat engines. The design methodology employed by CARES encompasses linear elastic fracture mechanics theory, extreme value statistics, and material microstructures; component integrity is conceived as a function of the entire field solution of the stresses, rather than being based solely on the most highly stressed point.

Nemeth, Noel N.↗

NASA NTRS2008

25th Space Simulation Conference. Environmental Testing: The Earth-Space Connection

Topics covered include: Methods of Helium Injection and Removal for Heat Transfer Augmentation; The ESA Large Space Simulator Mechanical Ground Support Equipment for Spacecraft Testing; Temperature Stability and Control Requirements for Thermal Vacuum/Thermal Balance Testing of the Aquarius Radiometer; The Liquid Nitrogen System for Chamber A: A Change from Original Forced Flow Design to a Natural Flow (Thermo Siphon) System; Return to Mercury: A Comparison of Solar Simulation and Flight Data for the MESSENGER Spacecraft; Floating Pressure Conversion and Equipment Upgrades of Two 3.5kw, 20k, Helium Refrigerators; Affect of Air Leakage into a Thermal-Vacuum Chamber on Helium Refrigeration Heat Load; Special ISO Class 6 Cleanroom for the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) Project; A State-of-the-Art Contamination Effects Research and Test Facility Martian Dust Simulator; Cleanroom Design Practices and Their Influence on Particle Counts; Extra Terrestrial Environmental Chamber Design; Contamination Sources Effects Analysis (CSEA) - A Tool to Balance Cost/Schedule While Managing Facility Availability; SES and Acoustics at GSFC; HST Super Lightweight Interchangeable Carrier (SLIC) Static Test; Virtual Shaker Testing: Simulation Technology Improves Vibration Test Performance; Estimating Shock Spectra: Extensions beyond GEVS; Structural Dynamic Analysis of a Spacecraft Multi-DOF Shaker Table; Direct Field Acoustic Testing; Manufacture of Cryoshroud Surfaces for Space Simulation Chambers; The New LOTIS Test Facility; Thermal Vacuum Control Systems Options for Test Facilities; Extremely High Vacuum Chamber for Low Outgassing Processing at NASA Goddard; Precision Cleaning - Path to Premier; The New Anechoic Shielded Chambers Designed for Space and Commercial Applications at LIT; Extraction of Thermal Performance Values from Samples in the Lunar Dust Adhesion Bell Jar; Thermal (Silicon Diode) Data Acquisition System; Aquarius's Instrument Science Data System (ISDS) Automated to Acquire, Process, Trend Data and Produce Radiometric System Assessment Reports; Exhaustive Thresholds and Resistance Checkpoints; Reconfigurable HIL Testing of Earth Satellites; FPGA Control System for the Automated Test of MicroShutters; Ongoing Capabilities and Developments of Re-Entry Plasma Ground Tests at EADS-ASTRIUM; Operationally Responsive Space Standard Bus Battery Thermal Balance Testing and Heat Dissipation Analysis; Galileo - The Serial-Production AIT Challenge; The Space Systems Environmental Test Facility Database (SSETFD), Website Development Status; Simulated Reentry Heating by Torching; Micro-Vibration Measurements on Thermally Loaded Multi-Layer Insulation Samples in Vacuum; High Temperature Life Testing of 80Ni-20Cr Wire in a Simulated Mars Atmosphere for the Sample Analysis at Mars (SAM) Instrument Suit Gas Processing System (GPS) Carbon Dioxide Scrubber; The Planning and Implementation of Test Facility Improvements; and Development of a Silicon Carbide Molecular Beam Nozzle for Simulation Planetary Flybys and Low-Earth Orbit.

Packard, Edward↗

NASA NTRS2000

North Atlantic Aerosol Radiative Impacts Based on Satellite Measurements and Aerosol Intensive Properties from TARFOX and ACE-2

We estimate the impact of North Atlantic aerosols on the net short-wave flux at the tropopause by combining satellite-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD) maps with model aerosol properties determined via closure analyses in TARFOX and ACE 2. We exclude African dust, primarily by restricting latitudes to 25-60 N. The analyses use in situ aerosol composition measurements and air- and ship-borne sun-photometer measurements of AOD spectra. The aerosol model yields computed flux sensitivities (dFlux/dAOD) that agree with measurements by airborne flux radiometers in TARFOX. Its midvisible single-scattering albedo is 0.9. which is in the range obtained from in situ measurements of scattering and absorption in both TARFOX and ACE 2. Combining satellite-derived AOD maps with the aerosol model yields maps of 24-hour average net radiative flux changes. For simultaneous AVHRR, radiance measurements exceeded the sunphotometer AODs by about 0.04. However. shipboard sunphotometer and AVHRR AODs agreed Within 0.02 for data acquired during satellite overflights on two other days. We discuss attempts to demonstrate column closure within the MBL by comparing shipboard sunphotometer AODs and values calculated from simultaneous shipboard in-situ aerosol size distribution measurements. These comparisons were mostly unsuccessful, but they illustrate the difficulties inherent in this type of closure analysis. Specifically, AODs derived from near-surface in-situ size distribution measurements are extremely sensitive to the assumed hygroscopic growth model that itself requires an assumption of particle composition as a function of height and size, to the radiosonde-measured relative humidity, and to the vertical profile of particle number. We investigate further the effects of hygroscopic particle growth within the MBL by using shipboard lidar aerosol backscatter profiles together with the sunphotometer AOD.

Russell, P. B.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Achieving Innovation and Affordability Through Standardization of Materials Development and Testing

The successful expansion of development, innovation, and production within the aeronautics industry during the 20th century was facilitated by collaboration of government agencies with the commercial aviation companies. One of the initial products conceived from the collaboration was the ANC-5 Bulletin, first published in 1937. The ANC-5 Bulletin had intended to standardize the requirements of various government agencies in the design of aircraft structure. The national space policy shift in priority for NASA with an emphasis on transferring the travel to low earth orbit to commercial space providers highlights an opportunity and a need for the national and global space industries. The same collaboration and standardization that is documented and maintained by the industry within MIL-HDBK-5 (MMPDS-01) and MIL-HBDK-17 (nonmetallic mechanical properties) can also be exploited to standardize the thermal performance properties, processing methods, test methods, and analytical methods for use in aircraft and spacecraft design and associated propulsion systems. In addition to the definition of thermal performance description and standardization, the standardization for test methods and analysis for extreme environments (high temperature, cryogenics, deep space radiation, etc) would also be highly valuable to the industry. Its subsequent revisions and conversion to MIL-HDBK-5 and then MMPDS-01 established and then expanded to contain standardized mechanical property design values and other related design information for metallic materials used in aircraft, missiles, and space vehicles. It also includes guidance on standardization of composition, processing, and analytical methods for presentation and inclusion into the handbook. This standardization enabled an expansion of the technologies to provide efficiency and reliability to the consumers. It can be established that many individual programs within the government agencies have been overcome with development costs generated from these nonstandard requirements. Without industry standardization and acceptance, the programs are driven to shoulder the costs of determining design requirements, performance criteria, and then material qualification and certification. A significant investment that the industry could make to both reduce individual program development costs and schedules while expanding commercial space flight capabilities would be to invest in standardizing material performance properties for high temperature, cryogenic, and deep space environments for both metallic and nonmetallic materials.

Bray, M. H.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Implementation of Speed Variation in the Structural Dynamic Assessment of Turbomachinery Flow-Path Components

During the design of turbomachinery flow path components, the assessment of possible structural resonant conditions is critical. Higher frequency modes of these structures are frequently found to be subject to resonance, and in these cases, design criteria require a forced response analysis of the structure with the assumption that the excitation speed exactly equals the resonant frequency. The design becomes problematic if the response analysis shows a violation of the HCF criteria. One possible solution is to perform "finite-life" analysis, where Miner's rule is used to calculate the actual life in seconds in comparison to the required life. In this situation, it is beneficial to incorporate the fact that, for a variety of turbomachinery control reasons, the speed of the rotor does not actually dwell at a single value but instead dithers about a nominal mean speed and during the time that the excitation frequency is not equal to the resonant frequency, the damage accumulated by the structure is diminished significantly. Building on previous investigations into this process, we show that a steady-state assumption of the response is extremely accurate for this typical case, resulting in the ability to quickly account for speed variation in the finite-life analysis of a component which has previously had its peak dynamic stress at resonance calculated. A technique using Monte Carlo simulation is also presented which can be used when specific speed time histories are not available. The implementation of these techniques can prove critical for successful turbopump design, as the improvement in life when speed variation is considered is shown to be greater than a factor of two.

Brown, Andrew M.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Implementation of Speed Variation in the Structural Dynamic Assessment of Turbomachinery Flow-Path Components

Brown, Andrew M.↗