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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

The Observed and Projected Changes of Global Monsoons: Current Status and Future Perspectives

The global monsoon system, encompassing the Asian-Australian, African, and American monsoons, sustains two-thirds of the world’s population by regulating water resources and agriculture. Monsoon anomalies pose severe risks, including floods and droughts. Recent research associated with the implementation of the Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project under the umbrella of CMIP6 has advanced our understanding of its historical variability and driving mechanisms. Observational data reveal a 20th-century shift: increased rainfall pre-1950s, followed by aridification and partial recovery post-1980s, driven by both internal variability (e.g., Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and external forcings (greenhouse gases, aerosols), while ENSO drives interannual variability through ocean-atmosphere interactions. Future projections under greenhouse forcing suggest long-term monsoon intensification, though regional disparities and model uncertainties persist. Models indicate robust trends but struggle to quantify extremes, where thermodynamic effects (warming-induced moisture rise) uniformly boost heavy rainfall, while dynamical shifts (circulation changes) create spatial heterogeneity. Volcanic eruptions and proposed solar radiation modification (SRM) further complicate predictions: tropical eruptions suppress monsoons, whereas high-latitude events alter cross-equatorial flows, highlighting unresolved feedbacks. The emergent constraint approach is booming in terms of correcting future projections and reducing uncertainty with respect to the global monsoons. Critical challenges remain. Model biases and sparse 20th-century observational data hinder accurate attribution. The interplay between natural variability and anthropogenic forcings, along with nonlinear extreme precipitation risks under warming, demands deeper mechanistic insights. Additionally, SRM’s regional impacts and hemispheric monsoon interactions require systematic evaluation. Addressing these gaps necessitates enhanced observational networks, refined climate models, and interdisciplinary efforts to disentangle multiscale drivers, ultimately improving resilience strategies for monsoon-dependent regions.

climate extreme events↗
DOE OSTI2024

Atmospheric Rivers in the Eastern and Midwestern United States Associated With Baroclinic Waves

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) significantly impact the hydrological cycle and associated extremes in western continental regions. Recent studies suggest ARs also influence water resources and extremes in continental interiors. AR detection tools indicate that AR conditions are relatively frequent in areas east of the Rocky Mountains. The origin of these ARs, whether from synoptic-scale waves or mesoscale processes, is unclear. This study uses meteorological composite maps and transects of AR conditions during the four seasons. The analysis reveals that ARs east of the Rockies are associated with long-wave, baroclinic Rossby waves. This result demonstrates that eastern North American ARs are dynamically similar to their western coastal counterparts, though mechanisms for vertical moisture flux differ between the two. These findings provide a foundation for understanding future climate change and ARs in this region and offer new methods for evaluating climate model simulations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Time-resolved investigation of subnanosecond radiation from Al wire hybrid X pinches

K-shell x-ray spectra from Al wire hybrid X pinches have been studied using an x-ray streak camera with better than 0.1-ns time resolution together with a Focusing Spectrograph with Spatial Resolution (FSSR) spectrograph. High-intensity radiation with a continuumlike spectrum was observed in the subnanosecond initial phase of the x-ray pulse generated by the hybrid X pinch (HXP). Here, the absence of spectral lines in this phase and the extremely small x-ray source size indicates the importance of radiative processes in the final phase implosion dynamics. Plasma parameters in the following phases of the HXP were determined from analysis of the line intensities. Point-projection radiography together with a slit-step wedge camera and an FSSR spectrograph without time resolution were used to show the number of radiation sources, and to give information on the time-integrated photon energy spectrum.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of historical CMIP6 model simulations of extreme precipitation over contiguous US regions

Simulated historical precipitation is evaluated for Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models using precipitation indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices. The model indices are evaluated against corresponding indices from the CPC unified gauge-based analyses of precipitation over seven geographical regions across the contiguous US (CONUS). The regions assessed match those in recent US National Climate Assessment Reports. To estimate observational uncertainty, precipitation indices for three other observational datasets (HadEx2, Livneh and PRISM) are evaluated against the CPC analyses. Both the moderate and extreme mean precipitation intensities are overestimated over the western CONUS and underestimated in the areas of the Central Great Plains (CGP) in most CMIP6 models tested. Most CMIP6 models overestimate the mean and variability of wet spell durations and underestimate the mean and variability of dry spell durations across the CONUS. Biases in interannual variability of most of the indices have similar patterns to those in corresponding mean biases. The median and interquartile model spreads in CMIP6 model biases are clearly smaller than those in CMIP5 model biases for wet spell durations. Multimodel medians of CMIP6 (CMIP6-MMM) and CMIP5 (CMIP5-MMM) have similar biases in climatology and variability but biases tend to be smaller in CMIP6-MMM. Depending on the index, extreme precipitation is slightly better in parts of the eastern half of the CONUS in CMIP6-MMM, otherwise, the biases in climatology and variability are similar to CMIP5-MMM. CMIP6-MMM performs better than individual models and even observational datasets in some cases. Differences between observational datasets for most indices are comparable to the CMIP6 interquartile model spread. The better-performing observational and model datasets are different in different parts of the CONUS.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Toward indicators of the performance of US infrastructures under climate change risks

Built infrastructures are increasingly disrupted by climate-related extreme events. Being able to monitor what climate change implies for US infrastructures is of considerable importance to all levels of decision-makers. A capacity to develop cross-cutting, widely applicable indicators for more than a dozen different kinds of infrastructure, however, is severely limited at present. The development of such indicators must be considered an ongoing activity that will require expansion and refinement. A number of recent consensus reports suggest four priorities for indicators that portray the impacts of climate change, climate-related extreme events, and other driving forces on infrastructure. These are changes in the reliability of infrastructure services and the implications for costs; changes in the resilience of infrastructures to climate and other stresses; impacts due to the interdependencies of infrastructures; and ongoing adaptation in infrastructures.

adaptation, indicators, infrastructure↗
DOE OSTI2020

Strong pinning and slow flux creep relaxation in Co-doped CaFe 2 As 2 single crystals

In this paper we report on measurements of critical current densities J c and flux creep rates S of freestanding Ca(Fe 1–x Co x ) 2 As 2 (x ≈ 0.033) single crystals with T c ≈ 15.7 K by performing magnetization measurements. The magnetic field dependences of J c at low temperature display features related to strong pinning. In addition, we find that the system displays small flux creep rates. The characteristic glassy exponent, μ, and the pinning energy, U 0 , display exceptional high values for pristine crystals. We find that for magnetic fields between 0.3 T and 1 T, μ decreases from ≈ 2.8 to ≈ 2 and U 0 remains ≈ 300 K. Analysis of the pinning force indicates that the mechanism is similar to the observed in polycrystalline systems in which grain boundaries and random disorder produce the vortex pinning. Considering the large U 0 observed in the single crystal, we attempt to improve the pinning by adding random point disorder by 3 MeV proton irradiation with a fluence of 2 × 10 16 proton/cm 2 . The results show that, unlike other iron-based superconductors, the superconducting fraction is sharply reduced by irradiation. This fact indicates that the superconductivity in the system is extremely fragile to an increment in the disorder. The superconducting volume fraction in the irradiated crystal systematically recovers after removal disorder by thermal annealing, which evidences as to the observation of critical state in curves of magnetization versus magnetic field. No features related to a reentrant antiferromagnetic transition are observed for the irradiated sample.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evaluating Atmospheric River Impacts on Energy and Moisture Transport in the Arctic Using Different Detection Algorithms

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) significantly impact the Arctic climate system by enhancing atmospheric heat and moisture transport and altering the local energy budget. Developing AR detection tools (ARDTs) is critical yet challenging. This study evaluates 12 ARDTs in the Arctic to assess their performance in representing atmospheric heat (represented by moist static energy) and moisture transport, as well as surface downward longwave radiation (LWD) and precipitation impacts, spanning 2000 to 2019 using ERA5 reanalysis. We find that AR occurrence frequency in the Arctic varies widely, from less than 1% to over 13%, depending on the ARDT. This variability leads to differences in contributions to poleward atmospheric heat (<1%–33%) and moisture (<1%–49%) transport. The highest AR frequency, and corresponding contributions to atmospheric heat and moisture transport, occurs over the Atlantic sector during non-summer seasons for most ARDTs. This region aligns with the primary poleward moisture pathway and the end of climatological mid-latitude storm tracks, highlighting strong connections between Arctic ARs and mid-latitude cyclones. ARs induce significant LWD anomalies, largest in winter, smallest in summer, and also substantially contribute to the seasonal precipitation. Global ARDTs detect fewer ARs with larger anomalies (>100 W m−2 in higher Arctic), but contribute <1% to seasonal climatological LWD and precipitation. In contrast, polar-specific ARDTs detect higher AR occurrences and account for up to 16% of seasonal LWD and 41% precipitation. This suggests that algorithms emphasizing extreme events with large anomalies do not necessarily indicate a large climate radiative and precipitation impact.

Zhang, Chen [University of Colorado, Boulder, CO (↗
DOE OSTI2024

High-pressure characterization of Ag 3 AuTe 2 : Implications for strain-induced band tuning

Recent band structure calculations have suggested the potential for band tuning in the chiral semiconductor Ag 3 AuTe 2 to zero upon application of negative strain. In this study, we report on the synthesis of polycrystalline Ag 3 AuTe 2 and investigate its transport and optical properties and mechanical compressibility. Transport measurements reveal the semiconducting behavior of Ag 3 AuTe 2 with high resistivity and an activation energy E a of 0.2 eV. The optical bandgap determined by diffuse reflectance measurements is about three times wider than the experimental E a ⁠. Despite the difference, both experimental gaps fall within the range of predicted bandgaps by our first-principles density functional theory (DFT) calculations employing the Perdew–Burke–Ernzerhof and modified Becke–Johnson methods. Furthermore, our DFT simulations predict a progressive narrowing of the bandgap under compressive strain, with a full closure expected at a strain of –4% relative to the lattice parameter. To evaluate the feasibility of gap tunability at such substantial strain, the high-pressure behavior of Ag 3 AuTe 2 was investigated by in situ high-pressure x-ray diffraction up to 47 GPa. Mechanical compression beyond 4% resulted in a pressure-induced structural transformation, indicating the possibility of substantial gap modulation under extreme compression conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Near-term heatwave risk in HighResMIP models across different temperature zones of West Africa

This study projects near-future (2031–2050) changes in heatwave (HW) risk across West Africa (WA) using an ensemble of eight high-resolution global climate models from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project under a high-emission scenario. Using K-means clustering, we divided WA into four unique temperature zones and examined projected changes in extreme temperatures, HW occurrence and magnitude. Our results indicate a statistically significant increase in future HW events across most parts of WA, although considerable spread exists over the region and among individual models. The most pronounced increases are evident in the Sahel/Sahara and the Guinea Highlands subregions, with an ensemble mean increase of ∼10 HW events per year. In contrast, the lowest increase in HW events is projected in central WA, with increases ranging between 1 and 5 events per year. Similarly, the magnitude of HW events is projected to increase in most models, with Sahel/Sahara exhibiting the largest increases. Additionally, projections suggest that the strongest HWs will become more frequent, particularly in northern and southwestern WA. These findings highlight significant spatial heterogeneity in future HW risk across WA, emphasizing the need for targeted adaptation strategies.

HighResMIP↗
DOE OSTI2020

ENG 572 Final Report

Thermo-electric coolers (TECs) provide an essential function in many high-powered applications by diverting heat away from a temperature-sensitive load. This summer I have worked with Sandia National Laboratories in exploring the failure mechanisms behind said devices. I have been tasked with determining a plan of action for two TECs manufactured by two different companies labeled A and B respectively. Prior to my involvement in the project, the former has displayed failures during normal operation within its packaging. The latter was subsequently chosen to resolve these issues. Thermal cycling between the extreme expected operating temperatures (-40°C to 80°C) was applied to 5 unmounted TECAs over a period of 5 hours with 1-hour soaks at each extreme. The unmounted TECBs are currently undergoing the same process, and the task is expected to be completed over the next few weeks. The results of the TECA characterization have indicated no failure has occurred, which indicates that failure will need to be induced through either higher temperature extremes or additional mechanical stress.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Distinct responses of Asian summer monsoon to black carbon aerosols and greenhouse gases

Black carbon (BC) aerosols emitted from natural and anthropogenic sources induce positive radiative forcing and global warming, which in turn significantly affect the Asian summer monsoon (ASM). However, many aspects of the BC effect on the ASM remain elusive and largely inconsistent among previous studies, which is strongly dependent on different low-level thermal feedbacks over the Asian continent and the surrounding ocean. This study examines the response of the ASM to BC forcing in comparison with the effect of doubled greenhouse gases (GHGs) by analyzing the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) simulations under an extremely high BC level (10 times modern global BC emissions or concentrations, labeled BC×10) from nine global climate models (GCMs). The results show that although BC and GHGs both enhance the ASM precipitation minus evaporation (P–E; a 13.6 % increase for BC forcing and 12.1 % for GHGs from the nine-model ensemble, respectively), there exists a much larger uncertainty in changes in ASM P–E induced by BC than by GHGs. The summer P–E is increased by 7.7 % to 15.3 % due to these two forcings over three subregions, including East Asian, South Asian and western North Pacific monsoon regions. Further analysis of moisture budget reveals distinct mechanisms controlling the increases in ASM P–E induced by BC and GHGs. The change in ASM P–E by BC is dominated by the dynamic effect due to the enhanced large-scale monsoon circulation, whereas the GHG-induced change is dominated by the thermodynamic effect through increasing atmospheric water vapor. Radiative forcing of BC significantly increases the upper-level atmospheric temperature over the Asian region to enhance the upper-level meridional land–sea thermal gradient (MLOTG), resulting in a northward shift of the upper-level subtropical westerly jet and an enhancement of the low-level monsoon circulation, whereas radiative forcing of GHGs significantly increases the tropical upper-level temperature, which reduces the upper-level MLOTG and suppresses the low-level monsoonal circulation. Hence, our results indicate a different mechanism of BC climate effects under the extremely high BC level: that BC forcing significantly enhances the upper-level atmospheric temperature over the Asian region, determining ASM changes, instead of low-level thermal feedbacks as indicated by previous studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Distinct responses of Asian summer monsoon to black carbon aerosols and greenhouse gases

Black carbon (BC) aerosols emitted from natural and anthropogenic sources induce positive radiative forcing and global warming, which in turn significantly affect the Asian summer monsoon (ASM). However, many aspects of the BC effect on ASM remain elusive and largely inconsistent among previous studies, which is strongly dependent on different low-level thermal feedbacks over the Asian continent and the surrounding ocean. This study examines the response of ASM to BC forcing in comparison with the effect of doubled greenhouse gases (GHGs) by analyzing the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) simulations under an extreme high BC level (10 times modern global BC emissions or concentrations, labeled by BC $\times$ 10) from nine global climate models (GCMs). The results show that although BC and GHGs both enhance the ASM precipitation minus evaporation (P–E) (a 13.6 % increase for BC forcing and 12.1 % for GHGs from the nine-model ensemble, respectively), there exists a much larger uncertainty in changes in ASM P–E induced by BC than by GHGs. The summer P–E is increased by 7.7 % to 15.3 % due to these two forcings over three sub-regions including East Asian, South Asian, and western North Pacific monsoon regions. Further analysis of moisture budget reveals distinct mechanisms controlling the increases in ASM P–E induced by BC and GHGs. The change in ASM P–E by BC is dominated by the dynamic effect due to the enhanced large-scale monsoon circulation, whereas the GHG-induced change is dominated by the thermodynamic effect through increasing atmospheric water vapor. Radiative forcing of BC significantly increases the upper-level atmospheric temperature over the Asian region to enhance the upper-level meridional land-sea thermal gradient (MLOTG), resulting in a northward shift of the upper-level subtropical westerly jet and an enhancement of the low-level monsoon circulation; whereas radiative forcing of GHGs significantly increases the tropical upper-level temperature, which reduces the upper-level MLOTG and suppresses the low-level monsoonal circulation. Hence, our results indicate a different mechanism of BC climate effects under the extreme high BC level, that BC forcing significantly enhances the upper-level atmospheric temperature over the Asian region, determining ASM changes, instead of low-level thermal feedbacks as indicated by previous studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Adaptation to Environmental Extremes Structures Functional Traits in Biological Soil Crust and Hypolithic Microbial Communities

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are widespread in drylands and deserts. At the microhabitat scale, they also host hypolithic communities that live under semitranslucent stones. Both environmental niches experience exposure to extreme conditions such as high UV radiation, desiccation, temperature fluctuations, and resource limitation. However, hypolithic communities are somewhat protected from extremes relative to biocrust communities. Conditions are otherwise similar, so comparing them can answer outstanding questions regarding adaptations to environmental extremes. Using metagenomic sequencing, we assessed the functional potential of dryland soil communities and identified the functional underpinnings of ecological niche differentiation in biocrusts versus hypoliths. We also determined the effect of the anchoring photoautotroph (moss or cyanobacteria). Genes and pathways differing in abundance between biocrusts and hypoliths indicate that biocrust communities adapt to the higher levels of UV radiation, desiccation, and temperature extremes through an increased ability to repair damaged DNA, sense and respond to environmental stimuli, and interact with other community members and the environment. Intracellular competition appears to be crucial to both communities, with biocrust communities using the Type VI Secretion System (T6SS) and hypoliths favoring a diversity of antibiotics. The dominant primary producer had a reduced effect on community functional potential compared with niche, but an abundance of genes related to monosaccharide, amino acid, and osmoprotectant uptake in moss-dominated communities indicates reliance on resources provided to heterotrophs by mosses. Our findings indicate that functional traits in dryland communities are driven by adaptations to extremes and we identify strategies that likely enable survival in dryland ecosystems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Near-Real-Time Statistical Analysis and Visualization of Streamflow from a Deep-Learning Rainfall-Runoff Model

Near-real-time (NRT) streamflow data are critical importance for timely water resources management. Here, we developed an open-source tool, FlowStats, for NRT streamflow analysis and visualization in Germany, based on NRT meteorological data from the German Weather Service and simulated streamflow from a long short-term memory neural network (LSTM). The LSTM model achieved very good overall performance, median NSE of 0.80 for the test period across 1,479 catchments. FlowStats provides options for deriving various streamflow statistics, from normal and abnormal streamflow detection to drought and flood analyses. An example analysis from FlowStats revealed widespread below-normal to extreme low-flow conditions across Germany from March to May 2025, which weakened from June to September 2025. Drought analysis for September 2025 highlighted severe to extreme drought conditions in northwestern Germany, while flood classifications indicated that high-flow events occurred in southwestern Germany. FlowStats can be used for various hydrological assessments to support water resources management.

Hydrological modeling↗
DOE OSTI2025

Large Hyperfine Coupling Arising from Pseudo- 2 S Ground States in a Series of Lutetium(II) Metallocene Complexes

The synthesis of molecules with strong coupling between electronic and nuclear spins represents an important challenge in molecular quantum information science. Here, we report the synthesis and characterization of the divalent lutetium metallocene complexes Lu(Cp Me 5 )(Cp iPr 5 ) (Cp Me 5 = pentamethylcyclopentadienyl; Cp iPr 5 = pentaisopropylcyclopentadienyl), Lu(Cp iPr 4 Et ) 2 (Cp iPr 4 Et = ethyltetraisopropylcyclopentadienyl), and Lu(Cp iPr 4 ) 2 (Cp iPr 4 = tetraisopropylcyclopentadienyl). The molecular structures of these complexes, as determined through singlecrystal X-ray diffraction, feature a common bent sandwich geometry, with average Cp–Lu–Cp angles ranging from 159.9° to 152.6°. Analysis of continuous-wave electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectra for the complexes reveals nearly isotropic g tensors with only a slight deviation from that of a free electron. Moreover, an extremely large splitting of the eight-line spectra indicates the presence of strong hyperfine coupling, and simulations provide isotropic hyperfine coupling constants of A iso = 4.38, 4.30, and 4.17 GHz across the series, where the value of A iso is found to decrease as the Cp–Lu–Cp angle becomes more acute. Notably, these values are the largest yet observed for any lanthanide complex. Moreover, EPR and computational analysis show that the large values of A iso stem from large s-orbital character up to 41.2% in the corresponding singly occupied molecular orbitals. To our knowledge, this degree of s-character in a molecular orbital is the largest yet reported for an open-shell isolable complex. These results outline a general strategy toward the isolation of paramagnetic molecules with strong hyperfine coupling and highly isotropic doublet electronic ground states.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

A symbiotic bacterium of Antarctic fish reveals environmental adaptability mechanisms and biosynthetic potential towards antibacterial and cytotoxic activities

Antarctic microbes are important agents for evolutionary adaptation and natural resource of bioactive compounds, harboring the particular metabolic pathways to biosynthesize natural products. However, not much is known on symbiotic microbiomes of fish in the Antarctic zone. In the present study, the culture method and whole-genome sequencing were performed. Natural product analyses were carried out to determine the biosynthetic potential. We report the isolation and identification of a symbiotic bacterium Serratia myotis L7-1, that is highly adaptive and resides within Antarctic fish, Trematomus bernacchii . As revealed by genomic analyses, Antarctic strain S. myotis L7-1 possesses carbohydrate-active enzymes (CAZymes), biosynthetic gene clusters (BGCs), stress response genes, antibiotic resistant genes (ARGs), and a complete type IV secretion system which could facilitate competition and colonization in the extreme Antarctic environment. The identification of microbiome gene clusters indicates the biosynthetic potential of bioactive compounds. Based on bioactivity-guided fractionation, serranticin was purified and identified as the bioactive compound, showing significant antibacterial and antitumor activity. The serranticin gene cluster was identified and located on the chrome. Furthermore, the multidrug resistance and strong bacterial antagonism contribute competitive advantages in ecological niches. Our results highlight the existence of a symbiotic bacterium in Antarctic fish largely represented by bioactive natural products and the adaptability to survive in the fish living in Antarctic oceans.

Xiao, Yu↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing carbon storage capacity and saturation across six central US grasslands using data–model integration

Abstract. Future global changes will impact carbon (C) fluxes and pools in most terrestrial ecosystems and the feedback of terrestrial carbon cycling to atmospheric CO2. Determining the vulnerability of C in ecosystems to future environmental change is thus vital for targeted land management and policy. The C capacity of an ecosystem is a function of its C inputs (e.g., net primary productivity – NPP) and how long C remains in the system before being respired back to the atmosphere. The proportion of C capacity currently stored by an ecosystem (i.e., its C saturation) provides information about the potential for long-term C pools to be altered by environmental and land management regimes. We estimated C capacity, C saturation, NPP, and ecosystem C residence time in six US grasslands spanning temperature and precipitation gradients by integrating high temporal resolution C pool and flux data with a process-based C model. As expected, NPP across grasslands was strongly correlated with mean annual precipitation (MAP), yet C residence time was not related to MAP or mean annual temperature (MAT). We link soil temperature, soil moisture, and inherent C turnover rates (potentially due to microbial function and tissue quality) as determinants of carbon residence time. Overall, we found that intermediates between extremes in moisture and temperature had low C saturation, indicating that C in these grasslands may trend upwards and be buffered against global change impacts. Hot and dry grasslands had greatest C saturation due to both small C inputs through NPP and high C turnover rates during soil moisture conditions favorable for microbial activity. Additionally, leaching of soil C during monsoon events may lead to C loss. C saturation was also high in tallgrass prairie due to frequent fire that reduced inputs of aboveground plant material. Accordingly, we suggest that both hot, dry ecosystems and those frequently disturbed should be subject to careful land management and policy decisions to prevent losses of C stored in these systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Projected changes in extreme rainfall and temperature events and possible implications for Cameroon's socio-economic sectors

Extreme events like flooding, droughts and heatwave are among the factors causing huge socio-economic losses to Cameroonians. Investigating the potential response of rainfall and temperature extremes to global warming is therefore critically needed for tailoring and adjusting the country's policies. Recent datasets have been developed for this purpose within the Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORDEX-CORE) initiative, at ~25 km grid spacing. These regional climate models were used to dynamically downscaled four global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), under the optimistic and pessimistic representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5, respectively. These models were employed in this study for characterizing the response of Cameroon's extreme precipitation and temperature events to global warming, using seven indices defined by the Expert Team on Cli mate Change Detection and Indices. Under global warming, the maximum number of consecutive dry (wet) days' is expected to increase (decrease). However, the annual total rainfall amount is expected to increase, mainly due to the intensification of very wet days and daily rainfall intensity. Furthermore, the temperature-based indices reveal an increase (decrease) in the total annual hot (cold) days, and overall, changes intensify with increased radiative forcing. The high-mitigated low-emission pathway RCP2.6 features attenuated changes, and even sometimes adapts to reverse the sign of changes. Designing reliable policies to limit the risks associated with the above changes is required, as their socio-economic consequences are likely to include food insecurity, heat-related illness, population impoverishment, price rises and market instability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗