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At least 91 records · Page 5

Space to Air High-Altitude Region Adjoint Neutron Transport

Neutrons from an atmospheric nuclear explosion can be detected by sensors in orbit. Current tools for characterizing the neutron energy spectrum assume a known source and use forward transport to recreate the detector response. In realistic scenarios the true source is unknown, making this an inefficient, iterative approach. In contrast, the adjoint approach directly solves for the source spectrum, enabling source reconstruction. The time–energy fluence at the satellite and adjoint transport equation allow a Monte Carlo method to characterize the neutron source’s energy spectrum directly in a new model: the Space to High-Altitude Region Adjoint (SAHARA) model. A new adjoint source event estimator was developed in SAHARA to find feasible solutions to the neutron transport problem given the constraints of the adjoint environment. This work explores SAHARA’s development and performance for mono-energetic and continuous neutron energy sources. In general, the identified spectra were shifted towards energies approximately 5% lower than the true source spectra, but SAHARA was able to capture the correct spectral shapes. Continuous energy sources, including real-world sources Fat Man and Little Boy, resulted in identifiable spectra that could have been produced by the same distribution as the true sources as demonstrated by two-dimensional (2D) Kolmogorov–Smirnov tests.

LaMere, Zachary W.↗

A Review of Global Radioxenon Background Research and Issues

Among the most important problems for the world-wide nuclear explosion monitoring is the interference of naturally occurring and man-made radionuclides. The International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) frequently detects these interferences using sensitive radionuclide measurement equipment. We commonly refer to the presence of radionuclides that are relevant to the CTBT but do not originate from a nuclear explosion as “background”. Backgrounds are highest near the sources but are known to have regional and global effects on the IMS. This review paper summarizes much of the relevant work in the area of background and discusses issues of interest for nuclear explosion detection.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Legacy surface change analyses of the 1993 Rock Valley earthquake sequence for direct comparison to planned NA-22 underground conventional high-explosive experiments (Source Physics Experiment 3 (SPE3) - RV/DC Task 1.3 FY22 Final Report)

Recent work under two previous phases of the NNSA NA-22 Source Physics Experiment (SPE) have shown that underground chemical high-explosive experiments can produce detectable surface changes that differ in spatial extent and vertical magnitude depending on the geologic media at the site (Schultz-Fellenz et al., 2018; 2020; Crawford et al., 2021). Neither of these two prior phases of SPE identified natural earthquake-related surface effects in the same region that occurred at a similar depth as the explosive experiments for direct comparison. While earthquakes can also produce surface changes that are detectable using remote sensing data analyses, it is expected that the pattern and spatial extent of surface changes would vary between earthquakes and explosions. However, no direct-observed surface-change signature comparison between earthquakes and explosions has ever been performed. The SPE Phase 3 Rock Valley/Direct Comparison (RV/DC) program presents a unique opportunity to investigate and characterize co-occurrence of both earthquakes and explosions. In this project, we worked to address five tasks in a workflow, as follows: 1. Identify and obtain existing high-resolution legacy satellite and aerial imagery as close in time before and after the 1993 Rock Valley earthquake sequence to temporally constrain the analyses. 2. Transform these pre-earthquake and post-earthquake datasets into digital elevation models (DEMs) using geospatial analysis software packages (e.g., ArcGIS, Agisoft Metashape, and Google Earth Engine). 3. Perform DEM differencing analyses to assess and quantify earthquake-related changes from the 1993 sequence, and develop map products that visualize these analyses. 4. Use the analyses from (3) to: (a) assess spatial distribution and magnitude of surface changes due to the 1993 Rock Valley earthquake sequence, and (b) determine parameters of forthcoming, planned explosion-related surface change data collection from sensors mounted on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) (e.g., spatial extent of collection, design and density of survey control, sensors to deploy, forward speed and line spacing of UAV flight lines, flight altitude). 5. Develop a summary report on the analyses, including how the analyses define parameters and identify focus areas for any future surface change analytical field campaigns related to the explosive experiment. Analyzing these legacy data and identifying whether they can detect any surface changes related to the earthquake sequence facilitates opportunities for direct signature comparison of surface change from explosions at one location, which has never previously been performed. Comparing the surface change signatures from a co-located and depth-equivalent earthquake and an explosion could help to advance remote sensing event discrimination techniques. This report summarizes the work completed toward this ambitious goal.

42 ENGINEERING↗

System, algorithm, and method using short pulse interrogation with neutrons to detect and identify matter

A system, method, and algorithm for detecting and identifying special nuclear material (SNM) (including fissionable material), explosives, or drugs is disclosed. This material detection system relies on active interrogation of material using a short, intense neutron pulse, and characterization of the resulting prompt gamma response in two short time windows, the first concurrent with and the second immediately following the end of the neutron pulse, optionally subject to a total transit delay time of the neutrons from the neutron source to the target and from the target to the gamma detector. A high data rate analysis system implements data stream analysis and statistical correlations of the two short time window gamma responses to rapidly detect or identify SNM, explosives, or drugs. The duration of the neutron pulse is so short that minimal dose results. Various shields help to minimize the background signal falling on the gamma detector to improve sensitivity.

Derzon, Mark S.↗

Detectability of collective neutrino oscillation signatures in the supernova explosion of a 8.8 M ⊙ star

In order to investigate the impact of collective neutrino oscillations (CNOs) on the neutrino signal from a nearby supernova, we perform three-flavor neutrino oscillation simulations employing the multiangle effect. The background hydrodynamic model is based on the neutrino hydrodynamic simulation of a 8.8 M ⊙ progenitor star. In this work, we find that CNO commences after some 100 ms post bounce. Before this, CNO is suppressed by matter-induced decoherence. In the inverted mass hierarchy, the spectrum of $\bar{ν}_e$ becomes softer after the onset of CNO. To evaluate the detectability of this modification, we define a hardness ratio between the number of high energy neutrino events and low energy neutrino events adopting a fixed critical energy. We show that Hyper-Kamiokande (HK) can distinguish the effect of CNO for supernova distances out to ~ 10 kpc. On the other hand, for the normal mass hierarchy, the spectrum of ν e becomes softer after the onset of CNO, and we show that DUNE can distinguish this feature for supernova distances out to ~ 10 kpc . More work is necessary to optimize the best value of critical energy for maximum sensitivity. We also show that if the spectrum of $\bar{ν}_e$ in HK becomes softer due to CNO, the spectrum of $ν_e$ in DUNE becomes harder, and vice versa. These synergistic observations in $\bar{ν}_e$ and $ν_e$, by HK and DUNE, respectively, will be an intriguing opportunity to test the occurrence of CNO.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Identification of Acoustic Wave Signatures in the Ionosphere From Conventional Surface Explosions Using MF/HF Doppler Sounding

Here, we present an experiment to detect one ton TNT-equivalent chemical explosions using pulsed Doppler radar observations of isodensity layers in the ionospheric E region during two campaigns. The first campaign, conducted on 15 October 2019, produced potential detections of all three shots. The detections closely resemble the temporal and spectral properties predicted using the InfraGA ray tracing and weakly nonlinear waveform propagation model. Here the model predicts that within 6.5–7.25 min of each shot a waveform peaking between 0.9 and 0.4 Hz will impact the ionosphere at 100 km. As the waves pass through this region, they will imprint their signal on an isodensity layer, which is detectable using a Doppler radar operating at the plasma frequency of the isodensity. Within the time windows of each of the three shots in the first campaign, we detect enhanced wave activity peaking near 0.5 Hz. These waves were imprinted on the Doppler signal probing an isodensity layer at 2.785 MHz near 100 km altitude. Despite these detections, the method appears to be unreliable as none of the six shots from the second campaign, conducted on 10 July 2020 were detected. The observations from this campaign were characterized by an increased acoustic noise environment in the microbarom band and persistent scintillation on the radar returns. These effects obscured any detectable signal from these shots and the baseline noise was well above the detection levels of the first campaign.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Trace explosives sampling for security applications (TESSA) study: Evaluation of procedures and methodology for contact sampling efficiency

We report the detection of trace amounts of explosive materials is critical to the security at mass transit centers (e.g., airports and railway stations). In a typical screening process, a trap is used to probe a surface of interest to collect and transfer particulate residue to a detector for analysis. The collection of residues from the surface being probed is widely viewed as the limiting step in this process. A multi-institutional study was performed to establish a methodology for the evaluation of sampling media collection efficiencies. Dry deposited residues of 1,3,5-trinitroperhydro-1,3,5-triazine (RDX), C-4 (an RDX-based explosive), and pentaerythritol tetranitrate (PETN) were harvested from acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) plastic, ballistic nylon (NYL), and uncoated aluminum surfaces using muslin, Texwipe cotton, and stainless-steel mesh traps. Transfer and collection efficiencies of the sample media were calculated based on liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry analysis. Dry transfer efficiencies (DTE%) to all tested surfaces were greater than 75%, with transfer to ABS plastic being the lowest. Collection efficiency (CE%) varied significantly across the traps and the surfaces, yet some conclusions can be drawn; nylon had the lowest CE% for all cases (~10%), and the stainless steel mesh had the lowest CE% for the evaluated traps (~20%). Though the testing parameters have been standardized among the participants to establish a framework for an independent comparison of contact sampling media and surfaces, substantial variations in the DTE% and the CE% were observed, suggesting that other variables can affect contact sampling.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Modeling the use of mobile modular gas samplers in near-field detection

The Wireless Independent Noble Gas Sampler (WINGS) is a mobile, modular gas sampling system designed for use in low infrastructure environments. In the case of a suspected underground nuclear explosion (UNE), WINGS units could be deployed to detect noble gases emanating from the suspected explosion site or identify gases originating from another source entering the local area from offsite. In conclusion, this work uses the atmospheric transport modeling tool inline WRF-HYSPLIT to test the effectiveness of WINGS units around a suspected UNE site as a function of sampler density and distance from the emission point of gases from a UNE.

Air sampling↗

A comparison of long-term 37 Ar and 39 Ar transport and implications for 39 Ar as a persistent indicator of underground nuclear explosions

Measurements were first made in 2016 of legacy 39 Ar gas from the decades-old Barnwell underground nuclear explosion site within the Nevada National Security Site. This has raised the question of the ubiquity of the radionuclide 39 Ar following underground nuclear explosions in general locations. This article presents a high-level evaluation of the scientific case for using 39 Ar as a long-term indicator of underground nuclear explosions. Assessment is made based on a broad set of assumptions to reasonably estimate the persistence of 39 Ar in the subsurface environment following an explosion to establish potential detectability years to decades after the originating event.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Localization of infrasonic sources via Bayesian back projection

SUMMARY A Bayesian framework is investigated for event-specific localization of infrasonic sources using back projection ray tracing. Direction-of-arrival information from array-based detection analysis is used to initialize a back projection ray path originating from the detecting array location and quantifying propagation characteristics from hypothetical source locations. The Fisher statistic, computed from the array’s beam coherence, is mapped into uncertainty in the launch angles of the ray path. Auxiliary parameters previously introduced for solving the Transport equation to compute geometric spreading along ray paths are used to map uncertainty in the ray launch angles into spatial and temporal uncertainties in the ray path. An atmospheric ensemble approach is applied to account for atmospheric uncertainty, and the relation between uncertainties in the atmospheric state and confidence in estimated localization are evaluated using several ensembles with specified variances. The method is evaluated using a synthetic event in the western United States constructed via forward propagation simulations as well as a single-station, multi-arrival detection from a surface explosion in the western United States. Localization results using this event-specific approach are more accurate and exhibit improved precision than existing Bayesian localization methods that leverage generalized, pre-computed propagation statistics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Blast from the past: constraining progenitor models of SN 1972E

ABSTRACT We present a novel technique to study Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) by constraining surviving companions of historical extragalactic SN by combining archival photographic plates and Hubble Space Telescope(HST) imaging. We demonstrate this technique for Supernova 1972E, the nearest known SN Ia in 125 yr. Some models of SNe Ia describe a white dwarf with a non-degenerate companion that donates enough mass to trigger thermonuclear detonation. Hydrodynamic simulations and stellar evolution models show that these donor stars will survive the explosion, and show increased luminosity for at least a 1000 yr. Thus, late-time observations of the exact location of a supernova can constrain the presence of a surviving donor star and progenitor models. We find the explosion site of SN 1972E by analysing 17 digitized photographic plates taken with the European Southern Observatory 1-m Schmidt and 1 plate taken with the Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory 1.5-m telescope. Using the Gaia eDR3 catalogue to determine Supernova 1972E’s location yields: α = 13h39m52${_{.}^{\rm s}}$708 ± 0${_{.}^{\rm s}}$004 and δ = −31°40’9${_{.}^{\prime\prime}}$00 ± 0${_{.}^{\prime\prime}}$04 (ICRS). In 2005, HST/ACS imaged the host galaxy of SN 1972E with the F435W, F555W, and F814W filters covering the explosion site. The nearest detected source is offset by 3.0 times our positional precision, and is inconsistent with the colours expected of a surviving donor star. Thus, the limiting magnitude of the HST observation (F555W > 28 mag) rules out all He star companion models and the most luminous main-sequence companion model currently in the literature. The remaining main-sequence companion models could be tested with a 10 orbit HST exposure in the F606W filter.

Do, Aaron↗

Automated nuclear cloud feature extraction from film

Chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, and explosives incidents require rapid detection and characterization for appropriate response. For a nuclear detonation, visible-light cameras may be used to locate the cloud and characterize fallout deposition when coupled with numerical models. Films from the United States’ nuclear testing era compose the only sizeable collection of imagery depicting high-yield detonations. These films offer unique insights into characteristics of flows involving scales that are difficult to replicate experimentally, and they are a valuable source of data for the validation of models for nuclear fallout transport, either as part of emergency response or forensic activities. In this work, we implement modern computer vision and machine learning techniques to identify and track the cloud automatically and subsequently determine the time dependence of some of its features. We trained a ResNet-18 image classifier on hundreds of images to categorize nuclear cloud morphology. Each category or cloud regime is determined by early cloud evolution and is associated to constitutive properties of the flow, such as distribution of vorticity. Next, we identified keypoint features using the KAZE algorithm and tracked these keypoints in the images, allowing us to determine the dimensions and velocities of the cloud across film frames. These measurements converted to real-world units provide valuable experimental data that can be used in the development and validation of nuclear cloud models. We compared the results of this method against manual cloud rise measurements from two different films. In one, our automated method accelerated the feature extraction process without sacrificing measurement accuracy.

Khristy, Joel [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000209963060)↗

Isolating the Source Region of Infrasound Travel Time Variability Using Acoustic Sensors on High-Altitude Balloons

High-altitude balloons carrying infrasound sensor payloads can be leveraged toward monitoring efforts to provide some advantages over other sensing modalities. On 10 July 2020, three sets of controlled surface explosions generated infrasound waves detected by a high-altitude floating sensor. One of the signal arrivals, detected when the balloon was in the acoustic shadow zone, could not be predicted via propagation modeling using a model atmosphere. Considering that the balloon’s horizontal motion showed direct evidence of gravity waves, we examined their role in infrasound propagation. Implementation of gravity wave perturbations to the wind field explained the signal detection and aided in correctly predicting infrasound travel times. Our results show that the impact of gravity waves is negligible below 20 km altitude; however, their effect is important above that height. The results presented here demonstrate the utility of balloon-borne acoustic sensing toward constraining the source region of variability, as well as the relevance of complexities surrounding infrasound wave propagation at short ranges for elevated sensing platforms.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

The Source Physics Experiment (SPE) Science Plan

The Source Physics Experiment (SPE) series is a long-term NNSA research and development effort designed to improve U.S. arms control and nuclear nonproliferation verification and monitoring capabilities. The findings from the SPE will advance the United States’ nuclear explosion monitoring capabilities, particularly with respect to detection, discrimination and determination of yields associated with small nuclear explosions that can be lost amid the noisy seismo-acoustic background from other sources. The data generated from the SPE, a series of well-designed and recorded chemical explosions, will contribute to the development and validation of first-principles explosive source generated seismo-acoustic modeling codes. These codes will then facilitate the update of semi-empirical methods, currently based on historic test site data, such that key explosion observables can be reproduced, thus improving confidence in nuclear test monitoring in new areas and/or under novel emplacement conditions. The overall SPE project is comprised of both the development of the new explosion simulation codes and the chemical explosion test series. The chemical explosion test series will generate the empirical data required to both develop and validate the new simulation codes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

High Throughput Argon-37 Field System

We report Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has developed a unique fieldable 37 Ar measurement system designed to measure 37 Ar activity concentrations from soil gas samples to detect above ground and underground nuclear explosions. The Argon-37 Field System is modular in design to accommodate both chemical processing and nuclear detection. The system can be packed into shipping crates and shipped to a location near where the sampling is taking place. The system can process six 2-m 3 whole-air samples in 24 hours and can measure the 37 Ar activity in each of the samples using six proportional counters. The proportional counters, designed and built at PNNL, are surrounded with both active and passive shielding to reduce background and can achieve a minimum detection concentration of 10 mBq/m 3 of 37 Ar in whole-air equivalent. The Argon-37 Field System has undergone extensive testing against rigorous requirements to assure the system meets the needs of the noble gas nuclear explosion monitoring community.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Vapor Pressures of RDX and HMX Explosives Measured at and Near Room Temperature: 1,3,5-Trinitro-1,3,5-triazinane and 1,3,5,7-Tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocane

Knowing accurate saturated vapor pressures of explosives at ambient conditions is imperative to provide realistic boundaries on available vapor for ultra-trace detection. In quantifying vapor content emanating from low-volatility explosives, we observed discrepancies between the quantity of explosive expected based on literature vapor pressure values and the amount detected near ambient temperatures. Most vapor pressure measurements for low-volatility explosives, such as RDX (1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazinane) and HMX (1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocane), have been made at temperatures far exceeding 25 °C and linear extrapolation of these higher temperature trends appears to underestimate vapor pressures near room temperature. Our goal was to measure vapor pressures as a function of temperature closer to ambient conditions. We used saturated RDX and HMX vapor sources at controlled temperatures to produce vapors that were then collected and analyzed via atmospheric flow tube-mass spectrometry (AFT-MS). The parts-per-quadrillion (ppqv) sensitivity of AFT-MS enabled measurement of RDX vapor pressures at temperatures as low as 7 °C and HMX vapor pressures at temperatures as low as 40 °C for the first time. Furthermore, these vapor pressures were corroborated with analysis of vapor generated by nebulizing low concentration solutions of RDX and HMX. We report updated vapor pressure values for both RDX and HMX. Based on our measurements, the vapor pressure of RDX at 25 °C is 3 ± 1 x 10-11 atm (i.e. 30 parts per trillion by volume, pptv), the vapor pressure of HMX is 1.0 ± 0.6 x 10-14 atm (10 ppqv) at 40 °C and, with extrapolation, HMX has a vapor pressure of 1.0 ± 0.6 x 10-15 atm (1.0 ppqv) at 25 °C.

RDX, HMX, explosives, vapor pressure, vapor detect↗

How Dynamic Time Warping Can Assist Conventional Cross-correlation

Waveform cross-correlation is a sensitive phase-matched filtering technique that can detect seismic events for nuclear explosion monitoring. However, there are outstanding challenges with correlation detectors, most notably a direct dependence on the completeness of the waveform template library. To ameliorate these challenges, we investigate how dynamic time warping (DTW) may make waveform correlation more robust. DTW analyzes the differences between two time series and attempts to “warp” one time series relative to another in a recursive manner. We apply DTW to synthetic earthquake and recorded explosion templates to expand the capability of correlation detectors. We explore what conditions (e.g., source, station distance, frequency bands) and/or DTW algorithms generate stronger correlation scores. We show that DTW performs well on noisy signals and can dramatically improve the cross-correlation coefficient between a template and data-stream waveform. We conclude with recommendations on how to utilize DTW in nuclear monitoring detection.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗