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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2000–2300 and beyond: model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using MPAS-Albany Land Ice

We present a description of the Antarctic Ice Sheet model configuration submitted to the ISMIP6-Antarctica-2300 experiment using the MPAS-Albany Land Ice model, along with three new sets of simulations: (1) a set of extended simulations to 2500 for three forced experiments and to 2775 for the control experiment; (2) a sensitivity analysis of our model configuration to parameters controlling basal sliding and sub-shelf melt, and to model structural choices including the choice of the energy and stress balances; and (3) a 72-member ensemble run on graphics processing units (GPUs) and analysis of variance to determine the primary sources of uncertainty in our ice-sheet model projections. Our extended simulations predict rapid retreat beginning after 2300 for SSP1-2.6 forcing and after 2500 for present-day (control) forcing, primarily in the Amundsen Sea Embayment. We find that varying the sub-shelf melt parameter between the 5th to 95th percentile values for a mean-Antarctic calibration target results in an up to ∼ ± 40 % change in sea-level contribution relative to our baseline simulations that used the median value. Using a linear basal sliding law reduces sea-level contribution by 51 %–73 % relative to our baseline nonlinear sliding law with an exponent of 1/5. When using basal sliding law exponents of 1/3 and 1/10, the overall difference from our baseline simulations at 2300 is on the order of 10 %. The Amundsen Sea Embayment region displays a strongly non-linear dependence of mass loss on the sliding law exponent, with no discernible relationship between the sliding law exponent and the mass loss by 2300, while the sectors feeding the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves exhibit more mass loss with a more-plastic sliding law. Our model fidelity sensitivity experiments reveal a 9 %–31 % increase in sea-level contribution when using a depth-integrated stress balance approximation relative to our three-dimensional solver, while using a fixed-in-time temperature field increases sea-level contribution by 14 %–88 % relative to two thermomechanically coupled configurations. Our 72-member ensemble and analysis of variance show that the uncertainty in long-term projections is dominated by the choice of Earth system model forcing and the presence or absence of hydrofracture forcing, rather than uncertainty in sliding and sub-shelf melt parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reducing uncertainty of polar to midlatitude linkages using DOE’s E3SM in a coordinated model-experiment setting

This project brought DOE’s climate modeling effort with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model into the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP), which is part of the sixth and latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP6. PAMIP examines the causes and consequences of polar amplification, when external forcing results in a larger temperature increase in high latitudes than the global average, in a coordinated set of model experiments with a common modeling protocol. Our teams from UC Irvine and the University of Toronto have designed, carried out, analyzed, and disseminated PAMIP output from the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and the Community Earth System Model (CESM). PAMIP’s ongoing stream of significant new results have advanced progress in the community’s understanding and led to new outstanding research questions that have motivated further work. PAMIP has led to improved consensus on the atmospheric response to sea ice loss. The important finding is that for a similar sea ice anomaly forcing, the simulated atmospheric response in the troposphere is remarkably consistent among the 16 models’ runs analyzed. The zonal-mean tropospheric response consists of a very robust equatorward shift of the westerly flow in mid-latitudes. However, while the multi-model mean response is robust, it has a weak amplitude relative to internal variability. We identified a weakness in the models (including E3SM) in terms of their response to sea-ice forcing that is related to eddy forcing (or nonlinear dynamical effects) at mid- to high latitudes. In fact, E3SM is an outlier in terms of the models participating, and in that sense, it turned out to be a vital participant model. We found that reductions in energy transport due sea-ice loss and involving dry air only are compensated by increases in moist energy transport from warmer sea surface temperature in midlatitudes. This leads to a large spread in energy transport into the Arctic and is a potential source of spread in Arctic amplification. We identified an important role that climate modes, including tropical modes of variability (El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO); the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO)) play in the response to sea-ice anomalies, including in ocean coupled experiments. Similarly, we identified and quantified the contribution of sea-ice thickness to the atmospheric response compared to the response to sea-ice extent only. We found that it is important to run large ensembles and even with an ensemble size of 100 simulations the response is largely influenced by internal variability. We demonstrated convincingly that Ural blocking, not sea-ice loss, provides the weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex in fall/early winter and a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation that can last for up to two months. However, sea-ice anomalies can influence the background flow so that the response to Ural blocking is more persistent under low sea-ice conditions in the Barents/Kara Sea than high sea ice Atmospheric model hierarchies that progressively add individual processes have a long history in providing dynamical insight for modeling the atmosphere. Similarly, coupled model hierarchies that progressively add individual ocean processes can provide insights into the workings of the coupled climate system, however such hierarchies have not been available except for a non-dynamical slab ocean model. Because of the missing processes, surface flux corrections must be added to produce a target climate. In this project, we managed to overcome this problem and develop a globally coupled ocean model hierarchy in CESM that can turn on and off the processes of mixed-layer entrainment and Ekman flow. We used the hierarchy to study the impact of Arctic sea-ice loss on the climate system. We find that the effect of mixed-layer entrainment on ocean heat uptake influences the atmospheric circulation by shifting the latitudinal positions of the mid-latitude westerly jet and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). In quadrupled CO 2 experiments, we studied how air-sea coupling affects the response of tropical rainfall under global warming. In order to identify the importance of individual ocean processes, we used the hierarchy of ocean models to separate the effects of seasonal mixed-layer entrainment, wind-driven Ekman flows, and frictional flows. We showed that including Ekman and frictional flows allows our simulation to produce the Pacific Ocean's enhanced equatorial warming pattern and equatorward ITCZ contraction noted in previous climate simulations. We also showed that the frictional flow, which has yet to receive much attention, is as important as the Ekman flow in generating equatorial heat convergence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ponderomotive effects of ultralight dark matter

I exhibit a new class of quadratic effects of ultralight dark matter. Axions, dark photons, and dilatons can exert rapidly oscillating forces, torques, and mass shifts on Standard Model particles. These effects average to zero at first order, but shift particle properties at second order, in analogy to the ponderomotive force in optics. Remarkably, these effects scale with the square of the amplitude of the dark matter field, even when the field’s direct physical effects depend only on its derivatives. I calculate the resulting observables in electron ge – 2 experiments using classical mechanics, recovering results previously derived using field theory. When considered properly, these particular experiments do not beat astrophysical bounds, but other precision experiments may have interesting sensitivity.

Zhou, Kevin↗
DOE OSTI2022

Solubility controls on plutonium and americium release in subsurface environments exposed to acidic processing wastes

To identify the role of waste composition and sediment interactions in controlling Pu and Am mobility in contaminated sediments at Hanford, a legacy nuclear site, Pu and Am concentrations in solutions equilibrated with contaminated sediments from beneath the 216-Z-9 (Z-9) Trench were compared to the solubilities of PuO 2 materials, synthesized by methods representative of the disposed wastes, in the absence of sediments. Furthermore, this work shows that the solubilities of PuO 2 materials synthesized by different methods, and with varying particle sizes, agree with PuO 2 (am,hyd), although dissolution kinetics differed between materials. According to saturation index (SI) calculations, PuO 2 (am,hyd) is likely also controlling Pu release from sediments under conditions where phosphate concentrations are low. However, both Pu-phosphate and Am-phosphate phases, identified in SI calculations and by high resolution transmission electron microscopy, play roles in controlling release in low pH, high phosphate, shallow sediments just below the Z-9 Trench. The elevated phosphate is likely due to decomposition of tributyl phosphate from waste solutions over time. Sediments from deeper in the subsurface beneath the Z-9 Trench are less acidic and contain less phosphate, with Pu solubility likely controlled by PuO 2 (am,hyd) that precipitated following neutralization of the acidic waste stream. Controls on Am concentrations in deeper sediments are more complex and potentially involve sediment adsorption and/or release from Pu (1-x) Am x O 2 following Am in-growth. The concentrations of both Pu and Am were elevated in the colloidal fraction associated with shallow sediments, but not in PuO 2 experiments, suggesting the presence of Pu/Am pseudocolloids (e.g., Pu/Am associated with mineral colloids). However, Pu and Am association with the colloidal size fraction was not observed in deeper sediments, suggesting transport of Pu and Am to these depths beneath the Z-9 Trench was not due to colloidal transport.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Efficiency of Water Vapor on Top‐of‐Atmosphere Radiation

Earth's climate sensitivity is greatly affected by the compensation between temperature feedback and water vapor (WV) feedback. Using abrupt 4xCO 2 experiments, we show that the global-mean WV feedback is nearly a linear function of the temperature feedback, the slope of which is explained by the longwave radiative efficiency of WV (ϵ). Although ϵ remains constant across models in the global mean, it exhibits substantial spatial variations and is particularly weak in Antarctica, where near-surface inversions decouple the surface from the free troposphere. We introduce a surface–free troposphere temperature difference (SFTD) metric, showing that positive SFTD (e.g., high lifting condensation level) amplifies ϵ, while negative SFTD (e.g., strong surface inversion) suppresses it. These findings provide a clear explanation of how local climate conditions modulate the radiative compensation between temperature and WV feedbacks.

climate feedback↗
DOE OSTI2025

Coupled Climate Simulations With E3SM‐MMF

Simulations of the recent historical period from 1950 to 2014 are conducted with E3SM‐MMF, which uses an embedded 2D cloud resolving model that runs efficiently on GPUs in place of traditional parameterizations for cloud and turbulence. Analysis of the climate and variability reveal several aspects where E3SM‐MMF produces smaller biases compared to E3SMv2, including better agreement with the observed evolution of global mean surface temperature, although the representation of ENSO is too weak and fast. Three idealized abrupt CO 2 experiments were also conducted to assess climate sensitivity and feedbacks. These yield three estimates of effective climate sensitivity (4.38, 5.21, and 6.06 K), with a corresponding spread in the shortwave cloud feedbacks. These estimates are on the higher end of sensitivity estimates from CMIP ensembles, and the spread indicates substantial state‐dependent feedbacks. These results demonstrate how multiscale modeling framework (MMF) models can be used for climate relevant experiments and projections by leveraging modern GPU enabled computational platforms. The unique qualities of E3SM‐MMF shown in previous literature are largely still present, but various instances of reduced biases suggest that MMF models have utility in improving future projections.

E3SM↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 3: 2. Overview of the Coupled System

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 3 (E3SMv3) represents the latest advancement in Earth system modeling developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). Building upon previous versions, E3SMv3 introduces significant updates across its coupled components to enhance capability and improve fidelity. The atmosphere component incorporates advancements in chemistry, aerosol-cloud interactions, convection, and microphysics. The ocean features a new time-stepping scheme and a higher-resolution unstructured mesh with sub-ice-shelf cavities, while the sea ice model integrates advanced snow and ice physics for more realistic cryospheric simulations. The land model introduces prognostic vegetation dynamics and a new sub-grid topographic treatment of solar radiation. A new tri-grid configuration harmonizes the horizontal grids of the land and river components for improved process coupling. It is enabled by a new non-linear remapping between the atmosphere and land. E3SMv3 underwent extensive testing through a comprehensive simulation campaign, including pre-industrial control, idealized CO 2 experiments, and historical simulations spanning 1850–2024. The model demonstrates significant improvements in simulating the evolution of the historical surface temperature, particularly addressing the “pothole cooling” bias in earlier versions. Reduced aerosol-related forcing contributes to more realistic radiative forcing and better alignment with the observational record. Ocean heat content (OHC) and sea ice trends are also improved as a result.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing continuum plasticity postulates with grain stress and local strain measurements in triaxially compressed sand

Critical state and continuum plasticity theories have been used in research and engineering practice in soil and rock mechanics for decades. These theories rely on postulated relationships between material stresses and strains. Some classical postulates include coaxiality between stress and strain rates, stress–dilatancy relationships, and kinematic assumptions in shear bands. Although numerical and experimental data have quantified the strains and grain kinematics in such experiments, little data quantifying grain stresses are available. Here, we report the first-known grain stress and local strain measurements in triaxial compression tests on synthetic quartz sands using synchrotron X-ray tomography and 3D X-ray diffraction. We use these data to examine the micromechanics of shear banding, with a focus on coaxiality, stress-dilatancy, and kinematics within bands. Our results indicate the following: 1) elevated deviatoric stress, strain, and stress ratios in shear bands throughout experiments; 2) coaxial principal compressive stresses and strains throughout samples; 3) significant contraction along shear bands; 4) vanishing volumetric strain but nonvanishing stress fluctuations throughout samples at all stages of deformation. Our results provide some of the first-known in situ stress and strain measurements able to aid in critically evaluating postulates employed in continuum plasticity and strain localization theories for sands.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

tonalli : an asexual genetic code to characterize APOGEE-2 stellar spectra. I. Validation with synthetic and solar spectra

ABSTRACT We present tonalli, a spectroscopic analysis python code that efficiently predicts effective temperature, stellar surface gravity, metallicity, $\alpha$-element abundance, and rotational and radial velocities for stars with effective temperatures between 3200 and 6250 K, observed with the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment 2 (APOGEE-2). tonalli implements an asexual genetic algorithm to optimize the finding of the best comparison between a target spectrum and the continuum-normalized synthetic spectra library from the Model Atmospheres with a Radiative and Convective Scheme (MARCS), which is interpolated in each generation. Using simulated observed spectra and the APOGEE-2 solar spectrum of Vesta, we study the performance, limitations, accuracy, and precision of our tool. Finally, a Monte Carlo realization was implemented to estimate the uncertainties of each derived stellar parameter.

Adame, Lucía (ORCID:0000000263286099)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hadronic Vacuum Polarization for the Muon 𝑔 − 2 from Lattice QCD: Long-Distance and Full Light-Quark Connected Contribution

We present results for the dominant light-quark connected contribution to the long-distance window of the hadronic vacuum polarization (HVP) contribution to the muon 𝑔 − 2 from lattice quantum chromodynamics. Specifically, with a new determination of the lattice scale on MILC’s physical-mass HISQ ensembles, using the Ω− baryon mass, we obtain a result of 𝑎$^{𝑙⁢𝑙,LD}_{𝜇}$⁡(conn) = 400.2⁢(2.3) stat ⁢(3.7) syst ⁢[4.3] total × 10 −10 . Summing this result with our recent determinations of the light-quark connected contributions to the short- and intermediate-distance windows, we obtain a subpercent precision determination of the light-quark-connected contribution to HVP of 𝑎$^{𝑙⁢𝑙}_{𝜇}$⁡(conn) = 655.2⁢(2.3) stat ⁢(3.9) syst ⁢[4.5]total×10 −10 . Finally, as a consistency check, we verify that an independent analysis of the full contribution is in agreement with the sum of individual windows. We discuss our future plans for improvements of our HVP calculations to meet the target precision of the Fermilab 𝑔 − 2 experiment.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

LANSCE Science Overview [Slides]

LANSCE is primarily focused on three science questions for NNSA and contributes to several other programs. We will primarily consider the NNSA questions: (1) How can we advance our understanding of dynamic material behavior using focused experiments? (2) What tools are needed to address Advanced Manufacturing and Aging? (3) How do we constrain the nuclear reaction networks involved in weapons?

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Beam dynamics corrections to the Run-1 measurement of the muon anomaly $a_{\mu}$ at Fermilab

The Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (FNAL) Muon $g\!-\!2$ Experiment has measured the positive muon magnetic anomaly $a_{\mu} \equiv (g_{\mu}-2)/2$ with a precision of 0.46 parts per million, with data collected during its first physics run in 2018. The experimental result combined with the measurement from the former experiment at Brookhaven National Laboratory increases the tension with the Standard Model expectation to $4.2\sigma$, thus strengthening evidence for new physics.The magnetic anomaly is determined from the precision measurements of the muon spin precession frequency, relative to the muon momentum, and the average magnetic field seen by the beam. In an ideal case with muons orbiting in a horizontal plane with a uniform vertical magnetic field, the anomalous precession frequency $\omega_a$ is given by the difference between the spin ($s$) and cyclotron ($c$) frequencies, $\omega_a = \omega_s - \omega_c$. The observable $\omega_a$ is proportional to $a_{\mu}$.This proceeding presents the beam dynamics systematic corrections that are required to adjust the measured muon precession frequency $\omega^{m}_{a}$ to its true physical value $\omega_{a}$.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Open Cluster Chemical Abundances and Mapping Survey. VII. APOGEE DR17 [C/N]–Age Calibration

Large-scale surveys open the possibility to investigate Galactic evolution both chemically and kinematically; however, reliable stellar ages remain a major challenge. Detailed chemical information provided by high-resolution spectroscopic surveys of the stars in clusters can be used as a means to calibrate recently developed chemical tools for age-dating field stars. Using data from the Open Cluster Abundances and Mapping survey, based on the Sloan Digital Sky Survey/Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment 2 survey, we derive a new empirical relationship between open cluster stellar ages and the carbon-to-nitrogen ([C/N]) abundance ratios for evolved stars, primarily those on the red giant branch. With this calibration, [C/N] can be used as a chemical clock for evolved field stars to investigate the formation and evolution of different parts of our Galaxy. We explore how mixing effects at different stellar evolutionary phases, like the red clump, affect the derived calibration. We have established the [C/N]–age calibration for APOGEE Data Release 17 (DR17) giant star abundances to be $\mathrm{log}{[\mathrm{Age}(\mathrm{yr})]}_{\mathrm{DR}17}=10.14\,(\pm 0.08)+2.23(\pm 0.19)\,[{\rm{C}}/{\rm{N}}]$, usable for $8.62\leqslant \mathrm{log}(\mathrm{Age}[\mathrm{yr}])\leqslant 9.82$, derived from a uniform sample of 49 clusters observed as part of APOGEE DR17 applicable primarily to metal-rich, thin- and thick-disk giant stars. This measured [C/N]–age APOGEE DR17 calibration is also shown to be consistent with asteroseismic ages derived from Kepler photometry.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Seventeenth Data Release of the Sloan Digital Sky Surveys: Complete Release of MaNGA, MaStar, and APOGEE-2 Data

This paper documents the seventeenth data release (DR17) from the Sloan Digital Sky Surveys; the fifth and final release from the fourth phase (SDSS-IV). DR17 contains the complete release of the Mapping Nearby Galaxies at Apache Point Observatory (MaNGA) survey, which reached its goal of surveying over 10,000 nearby galaxies. The complete release of the MaNGA Stellar Library accompanies this data, providing observations of almost 30,000 stars through the MaNGA instrument during bright time. DR17 also contains the complete release of the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment 2 survey that publicly releases infrared spectra of over 650,000 stars. The main sample from the Extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS), as well as the subsurvey Time Domain Spectroscopic Survey data were fully released in DR16. New single-fiber optical spectroscopy released in DR17 is from the SPectroscipic IDentification of ERosita Survey subsurvey and the eBOSS-RM program. Along with the primary data sets, DR17 includes 25 new or updated value-added catalogs. This paper concludes the release of SDSS-IV survey data. SDSS continues into its fifth phase with observations already underway for the Milky Way Mapper, Local Volume Mapper, and Black Hole Mapper surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Summary Report Of The FY25 Reactor Physics Verification And Validation Exercises In The Advanced Reactor Technologies - Gas-cooled Reactor Program

Valdiation and verification of numerical tools is critical for ensuring reasonable predictions for design scoping, licensing, and safety analsyis. In this report, two reactor physics verification and validation exercises are presented. The first of these exercises focuses on burnup analysis with data from the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) program. Simulations are performed with Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) and are compared with the experimental measurements for the AGR 1 and 2 experiments that utilize both UCO and UO2 fuel. The second exercises utilizes data from the HTR-Proteus experiments to perform reactor physics validation. Specifications of the experimental facility are provdied, along with a demonstration of initial modeling efforts in Serpent for one of the determistic packing experiments. Both cases are part of the Generation-IV international forum (GIF) Very High-Temperature Reactor (VHTR) Computational Methods, Validation, and Benchmarking (CMVB) program, an international collaborative organization dedicated to the verification and validation of High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR) analysis. Participation in the CMVB allows the US Department of Energy (DOE) to leverage these existing validation activities to provide extra value through benchmarking activities with other CMVB members.

and Benchmarking (CMVB) program↗
DOE OSTI2025

AGR 1 and 2 Isotopic Depletion Validation

This presentation includes work performed developing a computational benchmark for the AGR 1 and 2 experiments. These experiments involve irradiation of TRISO particle compact in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR). Many post-irradiation measurements were made from these experiments, including isotopic concentrations of fission products. The benchmark involves a MCNP-ORIGEN coupled model of the ATR and AGR experiment capsules to calculate a comprehensive inventory of fission product and actinide concentrations in the compacts. This presentation describes the experiments, the measurements obtained, the benchmark model, and results of the model evaluation.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

IER-523: Design of a UO 2 -BeO Critical Experiment at Sandia [Slides]

This lecture is on the design of a Uranium Dioxide-Beryllium Oxide UO 2 -BeO Critical Experiment at Sandia. This presentation provides background info on the Annular Core Research Reactor (ACRR). Additionally, this presentation shows experimental and alternative designs and concludes with a sensitivity analysis.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hydro-Mechanical Measurements of Sheared Crystalline Rock Fractures With Applications for EGS Collab Experiments 1 and 2

We present hydro-mechanical measurements that characterize shear on natural fractures in schist, amphibolite, and rhyolite specimens from the enhanced geothermal system (EGS) Collab Project's Experiment 1 and 2 sites (E1 and E2) at the Sanford Underground Research Facility. We employed a triaxial direct shear method augmented with X-ray imaging to perform hydroshearing (injection-induced shearing) and mechanical shearing on naturally fractured specimens at in situ stress conditions. Measurements included fracture permeability, strength, stress-dependent aperture, shear dilation, and frictional strength. Results reveal that in situ natural fractures must be permeable, weak, and shear-oriented to be hydrosheared, and only a subset of the observable in situ fractures were suitable. When sheared, the fracture permeability typically increased by a factor of 10 or more and this increase was retained over time. However, shear slip did not always result in permeability increase. High phyllosilicate content associated with exceptionally weak fractures exhibited poor or even decreased permeability after stimulation. These measurements in combination with site data were used to conduct a slip-tendency analysis for different fracture sets, and we selected the top candidate natural fractures for hydroshearing at the EGS Collab sites. We also found that the lower in situ shear stress and stronger fractures at the E2 site make hydroshearing more challenging than at the E1 site. Overall, the methods and analysis used in our work can be applied to any geothermal project to identify in situ joint sets that are best suited for hydroshearing, which in turn can help to optimize well placement and energy production.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗