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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Interpreting experimental measurements of helium bubbles using stochastic cluster dynamics models of heterogeneous nucleation and growth in irradiated ferritic alloys

Among a number of other advantageous features, ferritic/martensitic steels are being considered as fusion reactor structural materials due to their low intrinsic swelling under irradiation. However, under high-energy neutron irradiation, He produced through (n, α) reactions stabilizes vacancy clusters, which then act as seeds for bubble formation and growth, negating the intrinsic swelling resistance of these alloys. Standard models of irradiation damage accumulation and microstructural evolution consider homogeneous nucleation as the basis for bubble formation and growth. However, this generally does not explain the large bubble densities and sizes observed experimentally under a number of different conditions. Here, we propose a more realistic physical model of bubble nucleation, formation, and growth designed to capture recent experimental measurements of He-bubble formation and evolution during co-implantation of He and Fe ions in model ferritic alloys. We find that experimental results are explained only when the following three features are considered simultaneously: (i) heterogeneous nucleation of He-vacancy bubbles at defect sinks (e.g., dislocations, grain boundaries, and second-phase precipitates), (ii) nucleation and growth of bubbles via the ‘trap mutation’ mechanism (i.e., spontaneous production of Frenkel pairs due to absorption of He atoms), and (iii) transition from a growth-limited, He-stabilized bubble regime to a ‘runaway’ void-type growth scenario. The model is implemented into a stochastic cluster dynamics framework that takes advantage of cluster size grouping methods to accelerate the simulations, allowing us to reach 10 dpa of simulated irradiated dose, and to capture cluster sizes in excess of 20 nm. Further, a careful extrapolation exercise conducted assuming classical nucleation theory leads to excellent agreement with the experimental measurements at 50 dpa of irradiation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

El Agente: An autonomous agent for quantum chemistry

Computational chemistry tools are widely used to study the behavior of chemical phenomena. Yet, the complexity of these tools can make them inaccessible to non-specialists and challenging even for experts. In this work, we introduce El Agente Q, an LLM-based multi-agent system that dynamically generates and executes quantum chemistry workflows from natural language user prompts. The system is built on a novel cognitive architecture featuring a hierarchical memory framework that enables flexible task decomposition, adaptive tool selection, post-analysis, and autonomous file handling and submission. El Agente Q is benchmarked on six university-level course exercises and two case studies, demonstrating robust problem-solving performance (averaging >87% task success) and adaptive error handling through in situ debugging. It also supports longer-term, multi-step task execution for more complex workflows, while maintaining transparency through detailed action trace logs. Together, these capabilities lay the foundation for increasingly autonomous and accessible quantum chemistry.

agentic systems↗
DOE OSTI2024

International fuel performance study of fresh fuel experiments for PCMI effects during RIA experiments

This paper presents the results of High-burnup Experiments for Reactivity-initiated Accident (HERA) Modeling & Simulation (M&S) exercise. The HERA project under the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) Second Framework for Irradiation Experiments (FIDES-II) program is focused on studying Light Water Reactor (LWR) fuel behavior during Reactivity-Initiated Accident (RIA) conditions. The Part I M&S cases are based on a series of tests in the Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) facility in the United States and the Nuclear Safety Research Reactor (NSRR) in Japan. The purpose of this work is to evaluate the test design to accomplish its goals in establishing clearer understanding of the effects of power pulse width during RIA conditions. Further, the blind predictions using various computational tools have been performed and compared amongst to interpret the behaviors of high burnup fuels during RIA. While many international participants evaluate the thermal–mechanical behavior of fuel rod under different conditions, a considerable scatter of outputs comes out for the cases due to the disparity between codes in predicting mechanical behaviors. In general, however, the results of thermal–mechanical analysis elaborate that nominal design conditions the shorter pulse width tests in NSRR should cause cladding failures while the TREAT tests appear to have more split prediction of failure or not. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis varying key testing parameters reveals the considerable effect of power pulse width and total energy deposition on prediction of fuel rod failure.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) for heat pipes

Heat pipes are advanced passive thermal management devices that utilize phase change and capillary action to achieve efficient heat transfer. However, due to the complexity of the phenomena coupled in heat pipes, including capillary, phase change, turbulence, and compressibility effects, there are high uncertainties in the predictability of their operational regimes and performance. This PIRT exercise, conducted as a collaborative effort involving the Department of Energy (DOE) Microreactor Program (MRP), the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), and university partners systematically identifies, reviews, and prioritizes critical phenomena affecting the operation of heat pipes based on their importance and knowledge levels. Additional analyses and discussion are provided for phenomena with high importance and low knowledge, such as wick de-wetting, critical heat flux, contact angles, and pressure dynamics. The discussions included the recognizing challenges and proposing future research directions for both modeling and simulation and experimental efforts. Additionally, the report addresses phenomena with medium importance and low knowledge that could impact heat pipe operation during non-normal or transient operation, including frozen startup, laminar to turbulent transition, geyser boiling, wick priming, underfilling conditions, surface roughness of the wick, NCGs trapped in the wick, and the timescales of startup and shutdown. In conclusion, this comprehensive evaluation serves as a valuable resource for guiding future research and development efforts, supporting the successful integration of heat pipes into critical applications such as nuclear reactors, and contributing to the advancement of heat pipe technologies in safety-critical industries.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Review of the Lawrence Livermore Nuclear Accident Dosimeter 1980s-present

A Nuclear Accident Dosimetry program is a federal requirement for all facilities that have the potential to have a criticality accident. Personnel Nuclear Accident Dosimeter (PNAD) theory and analytical procedures are driven by various scientific needs and interacting regulations. A brief history of the status of USA Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear accident dosimetry regulations, recommendations, and performance testing criteria are given. Then, the history of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) PNAD is explored, including changes in the physical dosimeter and adjustments of the analysis method through the last four decades. Finally, the performance of LLNL’s PNAD at criticality accident intercomparison training exercises since 2009 is explored. In general, reported neutron doses have been within or close to DOE-STD-1098 performance criteria while reported gamma doses have been outside of DOE-STD-1098 performance criteria. Reported total absorbed doses have varied in meeting ANSI/HPS N13.3 and ANSI/HPS N13.3 (R2019) performance criteria. Dosimetry staff retirement and turnover have left historical knowledge gaps, yet provided opportunities within the NAD program at LLNL. This review paper serves as an overview of the history and status of the NAD program. Brief technical, procedural and programmatic recommendations to improve LLNL’s NAD program are given. Technical recommendations include investigating orientation factors through modeling or empirical experimentation, investigating gamma dosimetry methods for high-dose scenarios, and exploring other dosimetric methods for simpler, quicker NAD analysis. Procedural recommendations include better documentation of conversion factor (activity-to-fluence and fluence-to-dose) derivations and spectrum uses, and updated analysis spreadsheets or simple Graphic User Interfaces for dose calculations. In conclusion, programmatic recommendations include formalized training for NAD analysts, and having multiple SMEs trained on the NAD program.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Teaching Nonradiative Transitions with MATLAB and Python

Nonradiative transitions are changes in energy states of atoms, ions, or molecules that do not involve the emission or absorption of photons. Despite their importance in understanding luminescent properties and photochemical reaction mechanisms, nonradiative transitions are rarely given more than a qualitative overview in undergraduate and even graduate physical chemistry curricula. To supplement the coverage of nonradiative transition topics, we provide here a set of active learning exercises to help students develop an intuitive understanding of the factors that determine the rate of nonradiative transitions. Here, we start by outlining the theoretical background through the formulations of the Franck–Condon factor and its relation to the rate of nonradiative transition. We then introduce three teaching modules, with associated MATLAB and Python codes, to explore how (1) the excited state nuclear displacement, (2) the electronic energy gap between excited and ground state and (3) the excited/ground state vibrational mode frequencies affect the magnitude of the Franck–Condon factor and thereby the rate of nonradiative transitions. The wave function overlap plots that accompany all teaching modules provide direct visualization of the effect of input parameters on the magnitude of Franck–Condon overlap integral.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Revisiting Artifacts of Kohn–Sham Density Functionals for Biosimulation

We revisit the problem of unphysical charge density delocalization/fractionalization induced by the self-interaction error of common approximate Kohn–Sham (KS) density functional theory functionals on simulation of small to medium-sized proteins in a vacuum. Aside from producing unphysical electron densities and total energies, the vanishing of the HOMO–LUMO gap associated with the unphysical charge delocalization leads to an unphysical low-energy spectrum and catastrophic failure of most popular solvers for the KS self-consistent field (SCF) problem. We apply a robust quasi-Newton SCF solver to obtain solutions for some of these difficult cases. The anatomy of the charge delocalization is revealed by the natural deformation orbitals obtained from the density matrix difference between the Hartree–Fock and KS solutions; the charge delocalization not only can occur between charged fragments (such as in zwitterionic polypeptides) but also involves neutral fragments. The vanishing-gap phenomenon and troublesome SCF convergence are both attributed to the unphysical KS Fock operator eigenspectra of molecular fragments (e.g., amino acids or their side chains). Analysis of amino acid pairs suggests that the unphysical charge delocalization can be partially ameliorated by the use of some range-separated hybrid functionals but not by semilocal or standard hybrid functionals. Last, we demonstrate that solutions without the unphysical charge delocalization can be located even for semilocal KS functionals highly prone to such defects, but such solutions have non-Aufbau character and are unstable with respect to mixing of the non-overlapping “frontier” orbitals. Caution should be exercised when unexpectedly small (or vanishing) HOMO–LUMO gaps and atypical SCF convergence patterns (e.g., oscillatory) are observed in KS DFT simulations in any context (bio or otherwise).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Identification and Exploration of a Series of SARS-Cov-2 M Pro Cyano-Based Inhibitors Revealing Ortho-Substitution Effects within the P3 Biphenyl Group

Starting from a simple scaffold hopping exercise based on our previous exploration of cysteine protease inhibitors against legumain, compound 6a was identified as a starting point for the development of a SARS-CoV-2 main protease (M Pro ) inhibitor. Compound 6a displayed submicromolar biochemical potency in the ultrasensitive assay developed by Drag and coworkers. Through an iterative structure−activity relationship campaign, we discovered an unexpected improvement in both biochemical and cellular potency through the incorporation of an ortho substituent within the P3 benzamide. X-ray crystallography revealed that incorporation of the ortho substituent caused a subtle but important binding enhancement of the P1 glutamate group within the M Pro S1 pocket. While incorporation of the ortho substituent improved the potency, the off-target selectivity against a panel of cysteine proteases and cell activity remained suboptimal. Further scanning of the P2 core revealed that incorporation of the 3.1.0 proline could address these issues and afford compound 22e, a highly potent and cellularly active M Pro inhibitor.

COVID-19 infection↗
DOE OSTI2026

Climate impacts in scenarios: time to close the loop?

Reaching a full understanding of the consequences of climate change for society and ecosystems, and the ensuing needs for adaptation, requires a consideration of the interactions between human and Earth systems. Currently, however, climate research largely separates the influence of society on climate from the influence of climate on society; that is, it doesn’t “close the loop.” A primary example of this approach is the generation and use of earth system model (ESM) simulations in the climate change research community. Large-scale socio-economic models, known as integrated assessment models (IAMs), are used to project emissions and land use change which serve as input to ESMs. ESM projections then serve as input to models of impacts on society and ecosystems. But, according to this modeling chain, those impacts do not affect the emissions and land use that drove the ESMs in the first place. Previous work has not drawn firm conclusions on whether this feedback would be large enough to warrant explicitly accounting for it. Two prominent possibilities, however, are that emissions and land use scenarios representing the high and low ends of the plausible range of future climate change are both too extreme. The high-end scenario may miss damaging impacts that would reduce economic activity, and therefore emissions, while the low-end scenario may ignore climate feedbacks that would make large-scale land-based carbon removal ineffective and therefore would hamper mitigation at the level assumed by the scenario. In this piece, we identify the opportunities and challenges that implementing such feedback loops would face. We argue that recent developments in climate impact research, human system modeling and ESM emulation make the time ripe to use IAMs in a structured model intercomparison exercise. Model intercomparison projects have benefitted the climate modeling community for decade snow, and more recently have also benefitted the impact modeling community. An IAM intercomparison focused on integrating impacts could make large strides in testing the implications of these feedbacks and assessing whether closing the loop would fundamentally change our outlook on future climate changes and their consequences.

Tebaldi, Claudia↗
DOE OSTI2026

Developing Scenario‐Based Strategies for Health, Climate, and Environmental Preparedness: The One Health, One Earth Approach

Climate change amplifies many threats to human health. Despite advances in understanding climate change dynamics and impacts, there remains a critical gap in translating scientific knowledge into equitable, and community-driven health interventions. The inaugural One Earth, One Health workshop sought to explore this gap through human-centered design exercises involving interdisciplinary researchers from climate and Earth sciences, engineering, epidemiology, microbiology, and environmental health. Although participants did not co-develop solutions with affected communities, they used stakeholder role-playing to guide ideation and lay groundwork for actionable plans. Through these methods, participants identified community needs and proposed prototype solutions to alleviate health threats exacerbated by global environmental change. Prototypes were organized around infectious diseases, extreme weather, and air quality, as illustrative themes rather than an exhaustive set of risks. Key solutions included strategies for anticipatory systems and early warning (e.g., integrating environmental signals with health data), inclusive communication and infrastructure needs for responding to extreme weather events, and integrated platforms visualizing air quality trends to support tailored, context-aware guidance beyond one-size-fits-all alerts. The workshop highlighted opportunities such as leveraging machine learning, Earth observation, and real-time surveillance to protect communities, but also noted barriers including data quality, technological redundancy, privacy, and governance challenges. Additionally, participants emphasized the need for interdisciplinary teams capable of collaborating across sectors, breaking down silos and addressing gaps in training and education. Overall, the workshop illustrates how process-driven, human-centered approaches can help surface user needs and generate testable prototype concepts, while underscoring the importance of direct community partnership for implementation.

Abadi, Azar M. [University of Alabama, Birmingham,↗
DOE OSTI2026

Differences in Lightning—Storm Microphysical Relationships in Subtropical South America Versus the Continental U.S. and Their Impact on Model Lightning Parameterizations

Satellite studies have shown that some of the deepest convection with high lightning flash rates occurs downstream of the Andes in subtropical South America (SSA). Using high resolution ground‐based observations in SSA, we explore the relationship between lightning and radar‐inferred storm microphysics. Results show these storms have significantly larger 35‐dBZ volumes and more graupel per lightning flash compared to storms in the U.S. We then test microphysics‐based lightning parameterizations for storms in SSA on a 1‐km convection‐permitting simulation of a mesoscale convective system. Results from the simulation match well with observed flash rates. If parameterizations based on U.S. storms had been applied, flash rates would have been overestimated by a factor of eight. These results suggest that storms in SSA are fundamentally different compared to storms in the U.S., and caution should be exercised when applying microphysics‐based lightning parameterizations in different regions of the world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The R -Process Alliance: Exploring the cosmic scatter among ten r -process sites with stellar abundances

Context. The astrophysical origin of the rapid neutron-capture process (r-process), responsible for producing roughly half of the elements heavier than iron, remains uncertain. Detailed chemical signatures from the oldest, most metal-poor stars, which act as fossil records of the earliest nucleosynthesis events, can be used to identify the dominant r-process sites. Aims. We present a homogeneous chemical abundance analysis of ten r-process element-enhanced stars. These old and metal-poor stars are strongly enriched in r-process elements with minimal contamination from other nucleosynthetic sources. By focusing on this chemically pure sample, we aim to investigate intrinsic variations in the r-process abundance patterns and explore their implications for the nature and potential diversity of r-process sites. Methods. We performed a detailed chemical abundance analysis of high-resolution, high-signal-to-noise spectra. For each star, we inspected over 1400 individual absorption lines using a combination of equivalent width measurements and spectral synthesis. The analysis was conducted under the assumption of 1D local thermodynamic equilibrium and employing the MOOG radiative transfer code. Results. We derived abundances for 54 chemical species, including 29 neutron-capture (n-capture) elements, covering the full mass range of the r-process abundance pattern. A kinematic analysis reveals that stars likely originated from ten kinematically distinct systems. Based on this assumption, we used the sample to probe the maximum variation expected from ten independent r-process nucleosynthesis events and computed the intrinsic dispersion of each element relative to Zr and Eu for the light and heavy r-process elements, respectively. This exercise resulted in a remarkably low cosmic scatter across the ten r-process sites enriching these stars; for the rare earth and third peak elements, for example, we find σ [La/Eu] = 0.08 and σ [Os/Eu] = 0.11 dex, while the scatter between light and heavy elements, σ [Zr/Eu] , is slightly higher at 0.18 dex. Conclusions. The elemental abundance patterns across the ten independent r-process sites show remarkably small cosmic dispersions. This minimal dispersion suggests a high degree of uniformity in r-process yields across diverse astrophysical environments.

Astronomy and AstroPhysics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Packaging HEP Heterogeneous Mini-apps for Portable Benchmarking and Facility Evaluation on Modern HPCs

High Energy Physics (HEP) experiments are making increasing use of GPUs and GPU dominated High Performance Computer facilities. Both the software and hardware of these systems are rapidly evolving, creating challenges for experiments to make informed decisions as to where they wish to devote resources. In its first phase, the High Energy Physics Center for Computational Excellence (HEP-CCE) produced portable versions of a number of heterogeneous HEP mini-apps, such as p2r, FastCaloSim, Patatrack and the WireCell Toolkit, that exercise a broad range of GPU characteristics, enabling cross platform and facility benchmarking and evaluation. However, these miniapps still require a significant amount of manual intervention to deploy on a new facility. We present our work in developing turn-key deployments of these mini-apps, where by means of containerization and automated configuration and build techniques such as Spack, we are able to quickly test new hardware, software, environments and entire facilities with minimal user intervention, and then track performance metrics over time.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

The 0E2 benchmarks for PWR UO 2 decay heat: an analysis from the NEA WPNCS

This paper presents the work performed in the subgroup 16 of the Working Party for Nuclear Criticality Safety (WPNCS) of the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency. The main goal was to define two decay heat benchmarks for Spent Nuclear Fuel (one pincell and one assembly), perform calculations and compare and analyze the results in light of existing calorimetric measurements. The selected case is the PWR UO2 assembly 0E2, irradiated at the Ringhals-3 reactor and measured at the Clab facility in Sweden. In total, 21 institutes worldwide participated to the exercise, leading to 55 calculated results (named C). It was found that the measured decay heat values (E) can be satisfactorily reproduced with two-dimensional assembly calculations, leading to an average C/E value of 0.99, with an uncertainty (or one standard deviation) of ±0.01.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Nuclear Data Adjustment for Nonlinear Applications in the OECD/NEA WPNCS SG14 Benchmark—A Bayesian Inverse UQ-Based Approach for Data Assimilation

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Working Party on Nuclear Criticality Safety has proposed a benchmark exercise to assess the performance of current nuclear data adjustment techniques applied to nonlinear applications and experiments with low correlation to applications. This work introduces Bayesian inverse uncertainty quantification (IUQ) employing scientific machine learning surrogate models as a method for nuclear data adjustments in this benchmark, and compares IUQ to the more traditional methods of generalized linear least squares (GLLS) and Monte Carlo Bayes (MOCABA). Posterior predictions from IUQ showed agreement with GLLS and MOCABA for linear applications. Here, when comparing GLLS, MOCABA, and IUQ posterior predictions to computed model responses using adjusted parameters, we observe that the GLLS predictions failed to replicate the computed response distributions for nonlinear applications, while MOCABA showed near agreement, and IUQ used the computed model responses directly. We also discuss observations on why experiments with low correlation to applications can be informative to nuclear data adjustments and identify some properties useful in selecting experiments for inclusion in nuclear data adjustment. Performance in this benchmark indicates potential for Bayesian IUQ in nuclear data adjustments.

Bayesian calibration↗
DOE OSTI2025

First multi-institutional systematic comparison of the neutron ambient dose equivalent produced by proton therapy systems

Objective. Isochronous cyclotrons, synchrocyclotrons, and synchrotrons are used to accelerate protons for proton therapy. An accurate measurement of neutron doses generated by these accelerators and associated delivery systems and its clinical relevance requires systematic protocols and proper neutron dosimetry for a meaningful assessment. We present the first comprehensive comparison of neutron ambient dose equivalent (H*(10)) produced by clinically operational proton therapy systems. Approach. Treatment plans with 10 cm modulation-depth and ranges of 10 cm (R10M10) and 25 cm (R25M10) were created to cover a 10 × 10 × 10 cm 3 water target. The pencil beam scanning proton therapy machines studied were: two gantry-mounted synchrocyclotrons (Hyperscan, Mevion, half-gantry), two isochronous cyclotrons (ProBeam, Varian, full-gantry), one isochronous cyclotron (Proteus, IBA, full-gantry), and two synchrotrons (PROBEAT, Hitachi, full- and half-gantry). Proton beams were delivered to 30 × 30 × 40 cm 3 plastic water phantoms. WENDI-II and LUPIN-BF3-NP neutron rem-meters were positioned at three angles (0°, 45°, 90°) relative to the beam direction to measure the neutron H*(10) at distances between 50–300 cm from the isocenter. Main results. H*(10) showed dependence on beam energy, machine type, and measurement location. The highest reading was for the gantry-mounted synchrocyclotron, whereas other systems produced approximately comparable neutron doses. In all cases, the H*(10) reduced with distance from the isocenter. The H*(10) drop at 2 m distance compared to that at 0.5 m was a factor of ∼5 for the gantry-mounted synchrocyclotron whereas in other systems the decrease was a factor of 10. The WENDI-II device suffered from dead-time-associated under-estimation of the dose by a factor of ∼2–3 under the synchrocyclotron beam due to its high dose-per-pulse. However, WENDI-II and LUPIN-BF3-NP results were within reasonable agreement in isochronous cyclotron and synchrotron beams, indicating that both devices are suitable for those systems. Significance. Neutron H*(10) is dependent on various parameters including beam energy, measurement location, as well as machine design. Caution must be exercised in choosing the appropriate neutron-dose-measurement device to be used for low-duty-factor, particularly in high-instantaneous-rate proton delivery systems. By delivering the same volumetric proton dose across different machines, this work provides a benchmark for inter-system comparisons and serves as a foundation for future studies.

LUPIN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Aeroelastic code comparison using the IEA 22MW reference turbine

Reference wind turbine designs and the associated aeroelastic models are widely used in both research and industry. Reference models representing future concepts are of particular interest. Current state of the art aeroelastic tools are relied upon to design the next generation of large wind turbines. However, modelling assumptions may be invalidated by upcoming very large turbines, and different aeroelastic tools may give inconsistent results. A 22MW turbine model has been defined as part of International Energy Agency (IEA) Wind Task 55 on Reference Wind Turbines and Farms to represent future turbines to be deployed in the 2030s. In this study, an aeroelastic model of this turbine has been created in four tools; Bladed, HAWC2, OpenFAST, and QBlade. Code comparisons are presented for steady state operation, linear stability analysis, and time domain power production simulations in steady and turbulent wind. Generally, the codes show a good agreement, but with some differences present in the linear stability analysis, periodic azimuthal variation, and time domain simulations. The models are a good basis for further study with the IEA 22MW turbine, and further code comparison exercises.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Limits to forests-based mitigation in integrated assessment modelling: global potentials and impacts under constraining factors

Forests-based measures such as afforestation/reforestation (A/R) and reducing deforestation (RDF) are considered promising options to mitigate climate change, yet their mitigation potentials are limited by economic and biophysical factors that are largely uncertain. The range of mitigation potential estimates from integrated assessment models raises concerns about the capacity of land systems to provide realistic, cost-effective and permanent land-based mitigation. We use the Global Change Analysis Model to quantify the economic mitigation potential of forests-based measures by simulating a climate policy including a tax on greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, forestry, and other land uses. In addition, we assess how constraining unused arable land (UAL) availability, forestland expansion rates, and global bioenergy demand may influence the forests-based mitigation potential by simulating scenarios with alternative combinations of constraints. Results show that the average forests-based mitigation potential in 2020–2050 increases from 738 MtCO 2 .yr -1 through a forestland increase of 86 Mha in the fully constrained scenario to 1394 MtCO 2 .yr -1 through a forestland increase of 146 Mha when all constraints are relaxed. Regional potentials in terms of A/R and RDF differ strongly between scenarios: unconstrained forest expansion rates mostly increase A/R potentials in northern regions (e.g., +120 MtCO 2 .yr -1 in North America); while unconstrained UAL conversion and low bioenergy demand mostly increase RDF potentials in tropical regions (e.g., +76 and +68 MtCO 2 .yr -1 in Southeast Asia, respectively). This study shows that forests-based mitigation is limited by many factors that constrain the rates of land use change across regions. These factors, often overlooked in modelling exercises, should be carefully addressed for understanding the role of forests in global climate mitigation and defining pledges towards the Paris Agreement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗