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At least 91 records · Page 5

Power System Resilience Metrics Augmentation for Critical Load Prioritization

One of the major goals of new grid operation regimes, such as transactive energy systems (TESs), is to make the power grid more resilient to withstand natural or man-made disasters and potential reliability events, and to continue to serve the maximum number of its customers. But it is a well-known fact to system operators that not all customers are the same. This implies that any discussion of TESs’ impacts on the resilience of the power system should consider the needs of its critical customers (such as the power system operation centers, fire and police stations, and hospitals) over those of other customers. When evaluating the resilience of the system, bonus points must be awarded to any system that could maintain its power supply to critical customers during a disturbance that may cause an outage. This report discusses critical infrastructure (CI) as found in the literature and then categorizes it based on the field to which the operations belong (such as human life/safety-related, operations management, necessary city operation, industrial customers, etc.). Each of these CI categories is further divided into types of critical customers (e.g., the human life/safety-related category has different types of customers like hospitals, fire and police stations, etc.). The entire demand of each of the critical customer types is not categorized as critical load (CL); instead, only a portion of the total load of these critical customers is characterized as critical load. This is done based on the categories of equipment, the function of which is crucial in the operation of the overall facility. CL categorization is performed to provide the ratio of the critical load portion to the overall load , so that it can serve as a parameter in the resilience evaluation of the grid through a metrics-based approach. Such categorization is important as it helps to augment the existing quantifiable resilience metrics with CL categorization. The metrics for a power system need to not only consider how well a system performed during a disturbance event, but also how it reduced strain and supplied power to its CLs. The first step in this process is characterize CLs in the system. After CL characterization, the next step is the inclusion of these loads in the resilience metrics. To that end, in this report weight-based augmentation of resilience metrics is proposed, where certain customers (the ones that are categorized as critical) are assigned higher weights than others. Though an overview of assigning weights to customers is discussed, there is no one-size-fits-all approach for every power system. The decisions made about assigning such weights to customers vary greatly from one operator to another, based on their unique systems and the current and predicted states of critical customers. This decision-making can include the type of disturbance event, which might only affect certain parts of the system. In general, analyzing critical customers before an event helps understand system vulnerabilities. It also helps in planning and conducting operations during the event, evaluating system performance after the event, and supporting better planning for future events. An alternative to the current practices of managing the grid for outages is an innovative TES, which has the potential to provide a platform for including distributed energy resources for managing CLs. This report also describes how TES qualities can help (1) to maintain power supply to critical customers for uninterrupted operations and (2) to restore lost power supply to the critical customers rapidly.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Simulating Impacts of Extreme Events on Grids with High Penetrations of Wind Power Resources: Preprint

As extreme weather events become more frequent and intense, the demand for connecting grid operation and infrastructure planning with extreme event models will increase as well. We present a methodology for creating damage contingencies and scenarios for electric transmission grids during a hurricane strike. Included is an example case study: Hurricane Dolly damaging a synthetic 2000 bus test system during its landing in Southern Texas. Using WIND Toolkit meteorological data in conjunction with fragility curves for various electric grid elements, we generate stochastic damage scenarios that can be used for short- and long-term planning problems including emergency asset management. We perform statistical analysis of damages and quantify topological effects on example synthetic grid. Also, we investigate loss-of-load events during two-day economic dispatch experiment. Finally, we point out various shortcomings of our method and suggest how it can be improved.

contingencies↗

Simulating Impacts of Extreme Events on Grids with High Penetrations of Wind Power Resources

As extreme weather events become more frequent and intense, the demand for connecting grid operation and infrastructure planning with extreme event models will increase as well. We present a methodology for creating damage contingencies and scenarios for electric transmission grids during a hurricane strike. Included is an example case study: Hurricane Dolly damaging a synthetic 2000 bus test system during its landing in Southern Texas. Using WIND Toolkit meteorological data in conjunction with fragility curves for various electric grid elements, we generate stochastic damage scenarios that can be used for short- and long-term planning problems including emergency asset management. We perform statistical analysis of damages and quantify topological effects on example synthetic grid. Also, we investigate loss-of-load events during two-day economic dispatch experiment. Finally, we point out various shortcomings of our method and suggest how it can be improved.

data-driven forecasting↗

EFCOG Human Performance Improvement Task Group: Task 20-2, Asking Better Error Precursor Questions for Effective Job Planning, Pre-Job Briefs, and Event Investigations

The second principle of human performance states: “error-likely situations are predictable, manageable, and preventable.” An error-likely situation comes into play when task-related factors exceed the capabilities of the individual, creating a mismatch at the point when the individual is “touching” either the physical or the paper plant. The simple presence of adverse conditions cannot be error-likely unless a specific action is to occur within that set of adverse conditions.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

EoC Study Update to Examine the Cost, Schedule and Technical Changes to NASA Projects

The original National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Explanation of Change (EoC) study was conducted in 2010 to understand the underlying causes of cost and schedule growth. The first study consisted of 25 missions launched from 2000 to 2010 and looked at the events that led to growth. These events were categorized into different bins that were rolled up to quantify whether the growth was due to internal planning, or internal execution, or from external forces and found that the growth was evenly distributed among those three categories. The result of the study presented nine considerations focused at reducing growth due to project external events and internal planning events. Although no one 'magic bullet' consideration was discovered in the previous work, the nine considerations taken as a whole were postulated to help reduce cost and schedule change in future NASA missions. A recent update was conducted that included investigating 8 missions developed since the previous study to determine if the results were different. Cost, schedule, and mass increases were analyzed from the start of Phase B through Preliminary Design Review and Critical Design Review to Launch. As shown in this paper, the results are better with overall cost and schedule growth being reduced. The paper will show a comparison of the previous results to the updated results to show specific reductions and provide an explanation of which recommendations were followed.

growth↗

Simulating Impacts of Extreme Events on Grids with High Penetrations of Wind Power Resources

As extreme weather events become more frequent and intense, the demand for connecting grid operation and infrastructure planning with extreme event models will increase as well. We present a methodology for creating damage contingencies and scenarios for electric transmission grids during a hurricane strike. Using WIND Toolkit meteorological data in conjunction with fragility curves for various electric grid elements, we generate stochastic damage scenarios that can be used for short- and long-term planning problems, e.g., emergency asset management. Included is an example case study: Hurricane Dolly damaging a synthetic 2000-bus test system during its landing in Southern Texas. We perform statistical analysis of damages and discuss topological effects on the example synthetic grid. Also, we include a cursory evaluation of impacts using simplified operational models. Finally, we discuss how our method can be extended to use even higher-fidelity meteorological data sets and suggest directions for future work.

contingencies↗

Board 160: Empowerment in STEM Day: Introducing High School Girls to Careers at National Laboratories (Work in Progress)

In the US, women are still vastly underrepresented in STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) careers, and various studies have shown that girls' interest in STEM careers wane as high school progresses. With this challenge in mind, Empowerment in STEM Day was organized by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), hosting 47 high school students from 6 public high schools in the area. This one-day event was designed and executed through a collaboration between the Women's Support and Empowerment Council (WSEC) and the K-12 STEM Education and Outreach Program at LBNL. The main goal of this program was to provide high school girls, who have little access to STEM career role-models in their immediate surroundings with insights into how a career in STEM looks like. Invitations to participate in the program were sent out to six local high schools in the Bay area asking educators to identify female students that were interested in STEM. Each high school participant was provided with an opportunity to experience a national laboratory environment, learn more about summer workshops and paid summer research internship opportunities at LBNL for high school students, and engage directly with LBNL's employees through job shadow, career mapping and speed networking sessions. In this paper, we will present an overview of the event organization, challenges faced during planning and execution of the event, discuss the lessons learned from the first Empowerment in STEM Day and suggest strategies for incorporating such events at other national laboratories and academic institutions as part of a vital effort into recruiting and retaining more high school girls in STEM-based careers. Additionally, since this was the first in-person event hosted by LBNL's K-12 Program after the pandemic, we will also share the strategies implemented at the event so as to engage both remote and on-site employees as volunteers.

Bose, Baishakhi↗

NTESS Savings and Income Plan Summary Plan Description

National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC (NTESS) is pleased to sponsor the NTESS Savings and Income Plan (401(k) Plan), formerly known as the Sandia Corporation Savings and Income Plan, which is designed to help you build financial resources for the future. The 401(k) Plan can be an important part of saving for your retirement. This Summary Plan Description (SPD) explains how to determine if you are eligible to participate in the 401(k) Plan by saving directly from your wages, if you are eligible to receive employer contributions, when you may make withdrawals from your 401(k) Plan Account, and other important information about the 401(k) Plan. More detailed information is contained in the official NTESS Savings and Income Plan document, which governs the operation of the 401(k) Plan. In the event there is or appears to be any discrepancy between the terms of the 401(k) Plan document and this SPD, the terms of the 401(k) Plan document control.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Community-Informed Urban Flood Modeling for Impact Mitigation

The intensification of the hydrologic cycle due to climate change poses a threat to aging and under-designed water infrastructure systems which cannot adequately manage intense storm events. Developing a comprehensive plan for managing rain-driven flooding events is challenging due to uncertainties in the magnitude and frequency of future storm events and conflicting stakeholder objectives. In the City of Baltimore, Maryland, stormwater infrastructure is struggling to keep up with rainfall-driven (pluvial) flooding events, which regularly damage housing and disrupt transportation for residents. In this study, a hybrid of community engagement, numerical modeling, and artificial intelligence techniques are employed to explore prospective urban flooding adaptations. Community engagement drives the development of an urban flooding model (EPA Storm Water Management Model) for the Baltimore Harbor watershed. The model integrates complex surface and subsurface stormwater infrastructure data from the City, high-resolution spatial data, insights from local public works experts, and the lived experiences of City residents. This co-developed model simulates adaptations of interest to stakeholders in the city, including green and grey infrastructure and operational management strategies. Stormwater management scenarios focused on inlet cleaning and spatially concentrated green infrastructure are found to be the most effective in reducing flood depths in community priority locations. Together, these adaptations can reduce the duration of intersection inundation by more than twenty minutes, allowing for quicker emergency response and restoration of typical transportation systems. Future work will combine this community engaged flooding model with the Deep Uncertainties Pathways framework to explore tradeoffs between adaptations and develop dynamic adaptations which align with community objectives, enhance climate resilience in Baltimore, and can be adjusted in response to changing future conditions.

Ava, Spangler [Pennsylvania State University]↗

Advanced communications technology satellite high burst rate link evaluation terminal power control and rain fade software test plan, version 1.0

The Power Control and Rain Fade Software was developed at the NASA Lewis Research Center to support the Advanced Communications Technology Satellite High Burst Rate Link Evaluation Terminal (ACTS HBR-LET). The HBR-LET is an experimenters terminal to communicate with the ACTS for various experiments by government, university, and industry agencies. The Power Control and Rain Fade Software is one segment of the Control and Performance Monitor (C&PM) Software system of the HBR-LET. The Power Control and Rain Fade Software automatically controls the LET uplink power to compensate for signal fades. Besides power augmentation, the C&PM Software system is also responsible for instrument control during HBR-LET experiments, control of the Intermediate Frequency Switch Matrix on board the ACTS to yield a desired path through the spacecraft payload, and data display. The Power Control and Rain Fade Software User's Guide, Version 1.0 outlines the commands and procedures to install and operate the Power Control and Rain Fade Software. The Power Control and Rain Fade Software Maintenance Manual, Version 1.0 is a programmer's guide to the Power Control and Rain Fade Software. This manual details the current implementation of the software from a technical perspective. Included is an overview of the Power Control and Rain Fade Software, computer algorithms, format representations, and computer hardware configuration. The Power Control and Rain Fade Test Plan provides a step-by-step procedure to verify the operation of the software using a predetermined signal fade event. The Test Plan also provides a means to demonstrate the capability of the software.

Reinhart, Richard C.↗

Defining and representing events in a satellite scheduling system - The IEPS (Interactive Experimenter Planning System) approach

A methodology is described for defining and representing satellite events from the IEPS perspective. The task of doing this is divided into four categories and includes defining and representing resource windows, event parameters, event scheduling strategies, and event constraints. The description of each of these categories includes examples from the IEPS ERBS-TDRSS Contact Planning System. This is a system which is being used by the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) schedulers to request TDRSS contact times from the NCC. The system is written in the C programming language and uses a custom built inference engine (TIE1) to do constraint checking and a custom built strategies interpreter to derive the plan. The planning system runs on the IBM-PC/AT or on any similar hardware which has a C development environment and 640K of memory.

Mclean, David R.↗

Data Requirements for Application of Risk-Based Dynamic Contingency Analysis to Evaluate Hurricane Impact to Electrical Infrastructure in Puerto Rico

This paper presents a risk-based dynamic contingency analysis framework that was used to evaluate the hurricane impact to electrical infrastructure in Puerto Rico. PNNL developed a scalable risk-based framework for identifying high-voltage transmission resilience improvements by classifying and prioritizing high-risk power grid contingencies (system failures) under hurricane impact. The risk-based framework is founded on grid outage definitions with their associated probabilities of occurrence from hurricane events, in combination with an impact assessment derived from detailed dynamic cascading failure analysis. This paper focuses on a discussion around data requirements for transmission resilience planning for hurricane events, derived from the development of the risk-based framework and its application to Puerto Rico. This paper launches an important first step in encouraging the engineering community and power system industry to move towards establishing resilience planning as a routine practice. Since actual results for Puerto Rico contain sensitive information, sample simulation results will be used to illustrate the data requirements and risk-based dynamic cascading framework on the Puerto Rico power grid, as well as demonstrate the potential for such a simulation framework. The paper includes a discussion on the lessons learned, importance and need for improved datasets that are not usually considered in traditional power system planning. The paper will also elaborate on how the scalable simulation framework and datasets might be expanded to larger footprints and leveraged for modelling other types of natural disasters.

DCAT, Puerto Rico, hurricane, Power System Stabili↗

MSFC Skylab mission sequence evaluation

Planned and actual major Skylab sequences are presented. Off-nominal events are highlighted. Differences between planned and actual events are discussed.

Hoverkamp, J. D.↗

Modeling Social Influence via Combined Centralized and Distributed Planning Control

Real world events are driven by a mixture of both centralized and distributed control of individual agents based on their situational context and internal make up. For example, some people have partial allegiances to multiple, contradictory authorities, as well as to their own goals and principles. This can create a cognitive dissonance that can be exploited by an appropriately directed psychological influence operation (PSYOP). An Autonomous Dynamic Planning and Execution (ADP&E) approach is proposed for modeling both the unperturbed context as well as its reaction to various PSYOP interventions. As an illustrative example, the unrest surrounding the Iranian elections in the summer of 2009 is described in terms applicable to an ADP&E modeling approach. Aspects of the ADP&E modeling process are discussed to illustrate its application and advantages for this example.

Vaccaro, James↗

Evacuation decision behavior for no-notice emergency events

No-notice emergency events refer to unpredictable disasters such as earthquakes, chemical spills, or terrorist attacks, where it is impracticable to forewarn the public about their occurrence and design evacuation plans for them. This calls for an in-depth investigation of people’s evacuation behavior and identifying the most influential factors in their evacuation planning process to develop policy-sensitive pre-disaster plans for such events. As a response to this need, this study investigates individuals’ evacuation decision behavior in the context of no-notice emergency events. Since it is highly expected that people will have heterogenous decision behavior in such situations, we first apply a clustering algorithm to classify them into three maximally homogeneous clusters. Then, cluster-specific multivariate ordered probit models are developed to estimate the likelihood of selecting any of the three options of ignoring the situation, seeking shelter at the place, and evacuating to a safe place. The model estimation results indicate that a wide spectrum of factors affect the evacuation decision including individuals’ socio-economic attributes, disaster characteristics, built-environment factors, and government evacuation order. Further, variations of estimated coefficients across the population clusters highlight the significant dissimilarities in decision behavior of their associated members.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

A Microlensing Search for Primordial Black Holes in Dark Energy Survey Date

The search for dark matter is currently one of the most exciting fields in astronomy. One possible candidate for dark matter is primordial black holes, formed from density fluctuations at the beginning of the universe. We search for these black holes through microlensing events by creating light curves from stars in the Dark Energy Survey (DES). Microlensing occurs when a primordial black hole (lens) passes in front of a background star, briefly brightening the output from that star. This brightening, due to the increase in magnitude, becomes detectable. First, we must cut out galaxies from our sample of stars. We then vary key parameters involved in lensing to create potential light curves, and then compare them to light curves from actual events, as well as calculating errors. We then send off these curves for further analysis to determine if any real events occurred. We plan to create 106 light curves, due to the large amount of parameters being varied. If these primordial black holes are dark matter, we hope to eventually detect multiple events using the light curves we have created.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Planning for a Distributed Disruption: Innovative Practices for Incorporating Distributed Solar into Utility Planning

The rapid growth of distributed solar photovoltaics (DPV) has critical implications for U.S. utility planning processes. This report informs utility planning through a comparative analysis of roughly 30 recent utility integrated resource plans or other generation planning studies, transmission planning studies, and distribution system plans. It reveals a spectrum of approaches to incorporating DPV across nine key planning areas, and it identifies areas where even the best current practices might be enhanced. (1) Forecasting DPV deployment: Because it explicitly captures several predictive factors, customer-adoption modeling is the most comprehensive forecasting approach. It could be combined with other forecasting methods to generate a range of potential futures. (2) Ensuring robustness of decisions to uncertain DPV quantities: using a capacity-expansion model to develop least-cost plans for various scenarios accounts for changes in net load and the generation portfolio; an innovative variation of this approach combines multiple per-scenario plans with trigger events, which indicate when conditions have changed sufficiently from the expected to trigger modifications in resource-acquisition strategy. (3) Characterizing DPV as a resource option: Today's most comprehensive plans account for all of DPV's monetary costs and benefits. An enhanced approach would address non-monetary and societal impacts as well. (4) Incorporating the non-dispatchability of DPV into planning: Rather than having a distinct innovative practice, innovation in this area is represented by evolving methods for capturing this important aspect of DPV. (5) Accounting for DPV's location-specific factors: The innovative propensity-to-adopt method employs several factors to predict future DPV locations. Another emerging utility innovation is locating DPV strategically to enhance its benefits. (6) Estimating DPV's impact on transmission and distribution investments: Innovative practices are being implemented to evaluate system needs, hosting capacities, and system investments needed to accommodate DPV deployment. (7) Estimating avoided losses associated with DPV: A time-differentiated marginal loss rate provides the most comprehensive estimate of avoided losses due to DPV, but no studies appear to use it. (8) Considering changes in DPV's value with higher solar penetration: Innovative methods for addressing the value changes at high solar penetrations are lacking among the studies we evaluate. (9) Integrating DPV in planning across generation, transmission, and distribution: A few states and regions have started to develop more comprehensive processes that link planning forums, but there are still many issues to address.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗