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DOE OSTI2023

Toward Improved Regional Hydrological Model Performance Using State-Of-The-Science Data-Informed Soil Parameters

Accurate soil moisture and streamflow data are an aspirational need of many hydrologically relevant fields. Model simulated soil moisture and streamflow hold promise but models require validation prior to application. Calibration methods are commonly used to improve model fidelity but misrepresentation of the true dynamics remains a challenge. In this study, we leverage soil parameter estimates from the Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) database and the probability mapping of SSURGO (POLARIS) to improve the representation of hydrologic processes in the Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro) over a central California domain. Our results show WRF-Hydro soil moisture exhibits increased correlation coefficients ( r ), reduced biases, and increased Kling-Gupta Efficiencies (KGEs) across seven in situ soil moisture observing stations after updating the model's soil parameters according to POLARIS. Compared to four well-established soil moisture data sets including Soil Moisture Active Passive data and three Phase 2 North American Land Data Assimilation System land surface models, our POLARIS-adjusted WRF-Hydro simulations produce the highest mean KGE (0.69) across the seven stations. More importantly, WRF-Hydro streamflow fidelity also increases, especially in the case where the model domain is set up with SSURGO-informed total soil thickness. The magnitude and timing of peak flow events are better captured, r increases across nine United States Geological Survey stream gages, and the mean KGE across seven of the nine gages increases from 0.12 to 0.66. Our pre-calibration parameter estimate approach, which is transferable to other spatially distributed hydrological models, can substantially improve a model's performance, helping reduce calibration efforts and computational costs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) high resolution model intercomparison project (HighResMIP) bias in extreme rainfall drives underestimation of amazonian precipitation

Abstract Extreme rainfall events drive the amount and spatial distribution of rainfall in the Amazon and are a key driver of forest dynamics across the basin. This study investigates how the 3-hourly predictions in the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP, a component of the recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP6) represent extreme rainfall events at annual, seasonal, and sub-daily time scales. TRMM 3B42 (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) 3 h data were used as observations. Our results showed that eleven out of seventeen HighResMIP models showed the observed association between rainfall and number of extreme events at the annual and seasonal scales. Two models captured the spatial pattern of number of extreme events at the seasonal and annual scales better (higher correlation) than the other models. None of the models captured the sub-daily timing of extreme rainfall, though some reproduced daily totals. Our results suggest that higher model resolution is a crucial factor for capturing extreme rainfall events in the Amazon, but it might not be the sole factor. Improving the representation of Amazon extreme rainfall events in HighResMIP models can help reduce model rainfall biases and uncertainties and enable more reliable assessments of the water cycle and forest dynamics in the Amazon.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Power System Resilience Evaluation Framework and Metric Review

Power system resilience has been an emerging hot topic in recent years to investigate the increasing threats of extreme events, such as natural disasters, severe weather, and cyberattacks. Although much research has been done to define, model, and quantify resilience from different aspects, the lack of universally accepted evaluation methods and resilience metrics makes it difficult to assess and compare resilience across different power systems, such as what is typically done in power system reliability studies. In this paper, first, we review the definitions of resilience, and we summarize two core concepts shared by most of the literature. Then, we develop a new framework to assess power system resilience from two perspectives - i.e., pre-event estimation and post-event evaluation - to capture system resilience performance in both general and specific fashions. We conduct a thorough review of existing resilience metrics and categorize them using the proposed framework, where recommendations are also proposed to capture core concepts of resilience.

power system resilience↗

DOE OSTI2021

Science Capsule: Towards Sharing and Reproducibility of Scientific Workflows

Workflows are increasingly processing large volumes of data from scientific instruments, experiments and sensors. These workflows often consist of complex data processing and analysis steps that might include a diverse ecosystem of tools and also often involve human-in-the-loop steps. Sharing and reproducing these workflows with collaborators and the larger community is critical but hard to do without the entire context of the workflow including user notes and execution environment. In this paper, we describe Science Capsule, which is a framework to capture, share, and reproduce scientific workflows. Science Capsule captures, manages and represents both computational and human elements of a workflow. It automatically captures and processes events associated with the execution and data life cycle of workflows, and lets users add other types and forms of scientific artifacts. Science Capsule also allows users to create `workflow snapshots' that keep track of the different versions of a workflow and their lineage, allowing scientists to incrementally share and extend workflows between users. Our results show that Science Capsule is capable of processing and organizing events in near real-time for high-throughput experimental and data analysis workflows without incurring any significant performance overheads.

Ghoshal, Devarshi↗

DOE OSTI2020

PERSIANN Dynamic Infrared–Rain Rate (PDIR-Now): A Near-Real-Time, Quasi-Global Satellite Precipitation Dataset

This study presents the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks–Dynamic Infrared Rain Rate (PDIR-Now) near-real-time precipitation dataset. This dataset provides hourly, quasi-global, infrared-based precipitation estimates at 0.04° × 0.04° spatial resolution with a short latency (15–60 min). It is intended to supersede the PERSIANN–Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS) dataset previously produced as the near-real-time product of the PERSIANN family. We first provide a brief description of the algorithm’s fundamentals and the input data used for deriving precipitation estimates. Second, we provide an extensive evaluation of the PDIR-Now dataset over annual, monthly, daily, and subdaily scales. Last, the article presents information on the dissemination of the dataset through the Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing (CHRS) web-based interfaces. The evaluation, conducted over the period 2017–18, demonstrates the utility of PDIR-Now and its improvement over PERSIANN-CCS at all temporal scales. Specifically, PDIR-Now improves the estimation of rain/no-rain days as demonstrated by a critical success index (CSI) of 0.53 compared to 0.47 of PERSIANN-CCS. In addition, PDIR-Now improves the estimation of seasonal and diurnal cycles of precipitation as well as regional precipitation patterns erroneously estimated by PERSIANN-CCS. Finally, an evaluation is carried out to examine the performance of PDIR-Now in capturing two extreme events, Hurricane Harvey and a cluster of summer thunderstorms that occurred over the Netherlands, where it is shown that PDIR-Now adequately represents spatial precipitation patterns as well as subdaily precipitation rates with a correlation coefficient (CORR) of 0.64 for Hurricane Harvey and 0.76 for the Netherlands thunderstorms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Low ozone dry deposition rates to sea ice during the MOSAiC field campaign: Implications for the Arctic boundary layer ozone budget

Dry deposition to the surface is one of the main removal pathways of tropospheric ozone (O 3 ). We quantified for the first time the impact of O 3 deposition to the Arctic sea ice on the planetary boundary layer (PBL) O 3 concentration and budget using year-round flux and concentration observations from the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) campaign and simulations with a single-column atmospheric chemistry and meteorological model (SCM). Based on eddy-covariance O 3 surface flux observations, we find a median surface resistance on the order of 20,000 s m –1 , resulting in a dry deposition velocity of approximately 0.005 cm s –1 . This surface resistance is up to an order of magnitude larger than traditionally used values in many atmospheric chemistry and transport models. The SCM is able to accurately represent the yearly cycle, with maxima above 40 ppb in the winter and minima around 15 ppb at the end of summer. However, the observed springtime ozone depletion events are not captured by the SCM. In winter, the modelled PBL O 3 budget is governed by dry deposition at the surface mostly compensated by downward turbulent transport of O 3 towards the surface. Advection, which is accounted for implicitly by nudging to reanalysis data, poses a substantial, mostly negative, contribution to the simulated PBL O 3 budget in summer. During episodes with low wind speed (<5 m s –1 ) and shallow PBL (<50 m), the 7-day mean dry deposition removal rate can reach up to 1.0 ppb h –1 . Our study highlights the importance of an accurate description of dry deposition to Arctic sea ice in models to quantify the current and future O 3 sink in the Arctic, impacting the tropospheric O 3 budget, which has been modified in the last century largely due to anthropogenic activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Uncertainty Analysis for a Criticality Benchmark [Slides]

This presentation discusses how KRUSTY was analyzed with LANL’s MCNP neutron transport code, Monte Carlo N-Particle. In the Monte Carlo method, neutrons are born in fission events and fly around the geometry having events (e.g., scatter, capture, fission, escape) according to the natural probabilities. “Natural probabilities” are given as neutron cross sections , which are measured and evaluated nuclear data. One of the goals of the benchmark project is to improve the nuclear cross sections (and the codes that use them). In this work, the response of interest is called k eff , which describes the neutron multiplication in a near critical system. Like most quantities, k eff is not measured directly; it is only inferred. In summation, MCNP results for k eff matched the measurements extremely well. The evaluated uncertainties are asymmetric and smaller than 0.00100 (e.g., + 0.00080 / – 0.00062). The largest uncertainties are due to alignment.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Uncertainty Analysis for a Criticality Benchmark [Slides]

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Power System Resilience Evaluation Framework and Metric Review: Preprint

Power system resilience is an emerging hot topic in recent years to study the increasing threats of extreme events such as natural disasters, severe weather, and cyberattacks. Although many research works have been done to define, model, and quantify resilience from different aspects, the lack of universally accepted resilience metrics and evaluation methods makes it difficult to assess and compare resilience across different power systems like what is typically done in power system reliability studies. In this paper, we first review the definitions of resilience and summarized two core concepts shared by most literature. On top of that, we conduct a thorough review of resilience metrics and develop a new framework to assess power system resilience from two perspectives, i.e., pre-event estimation and post-event evaluation, to capture system resilience performance in both general and specific fashions. Existing resilience metrics are summarized and categorized using the proposed framework, where recommendations are also proposed to capture core concepts of resilience.

power system resilience↗

DOE OSTI2022

Calculating Radiation Damage (DPA) from Transmutation Products

This is a poster for an INL poster session. Accurate models for radiation damage are crucial for predicting material performance in radiation environments. The uncertainty of state-of-the-art radiation damage models is large, contributing to excessive safety margins. A major source of this uncertainty is neglecting the effect that transmutation products have on radiation damage. Transmutation products are new nuclides formed by neutron activation during irradiation; they can contribute to radiation damage by additional neutron capture or decay events. Ignoring the contribution of transmutation products leads to a significant underprediction of the radiation damage (e.g., >10% error in 316 stainless steel). This underprediction is accounted for in part by adding larger safety margins to designs. Currently, the state of the art explicitly accounts for only a single transmutation product, namely nickel-59, during the radiation damage calculation. All other transmutation products are assumed to not contribute to the radiation damage, because there is currently no established method to systematically track all or a selection of radiation damage contributions of transmutation products during activation. In the case of nickel-59, the current method is to apply a precalculated correlation that cannot be used for any other nuclide and is largely dependent on all nuclear engineers being experts in this niche topic. This project proposed to methodically find other transmutation products that cause significant radiation damage, and then to develop a general framework for systematically tracking the radiation damage from these nuclides. This was accomplished by combining the radiation damage calculation into the transmutation calculation already performed for irradiated structural materials. The key idea of our framework is to introduce radiation-damage "pseudo-nuclides" to the list of nuclides used in the transmutation analysis. This allows radiation damage to be tracked alongside the creation and destruction of transmutation products. The main deliverable of this project is a general framework for computing radiation damage while the damaged material undergoes transmutation; this capability allows a significantly more accurate estimation of radiation damage, and in turn reduce required safety margins thereby reducing the cost to construct reactors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Intelligent Triggers for Rare Event Detection in Liquid Argon Detectors

Next-generation neutrino experiments like SBND and DUNE rely on Liquid Argon Time Projection Chambers (LArTPCs), which produce exceptionally detailed data at high volume. Capturing rare or unexpected events in real-time is a major challenge. Our project explores the use of machine learning, specifically autoencoder-based anomaly detection, to identify unusual activity directly from raw detector signals. Inspired by successes at the CMS experiment, we demonstrate that such methods can be adapted to LArTPCs and show promising results in both simulated studies and early steps toward real-time hardware deployment. This approach could open new avenues for detecting signals from physics beyond the Standard Model.

Chung, Seokju [Columbia U. (main)]↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating Mesoscale Convective Systems Over the US in Conventional and Multiscale Modeling Framework Configurations of E3SMv1

Organized mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) contribute a significant amount of precipitation in the Central and Eastern US during spring and summer, which impacts the availability of freshwater and flooding events. However, current global Earth system models cannot capture MCSs well and misrepresent the statistics of precipitation in the region. In this study, we investigate the representation of MCSs in three configurations of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1) by tracking individual storms based on outgoing longwave radiation using a new application of TempestExtremes. Our results indicate that conventional parameterizations of convection, implemented in both low (LR; ~150 km) and high (HR; ~25 km) resolution configurations, fail to capture almost all MCS-like events, in-part because they underestimate high-level cloud ice associated with deep convection. On the other hand, the multiscale modeling framework (MMF; cloud-resolving models embedded in each grid-column of ~150 km resolution E3SMv1) configuration represents MCSs and their annual cycle better. Nevertheless, relative to observations, the E3SMv1-MMF spatial distribution of MCSs and associated precipitation is shifted eastward, and the diurnal timing is lagged. A comparison between the large-scale environment in E3SMv1-MMF and ERA5 reanalysis suggests that the biases during the summer in E3SMv1-MMF are associated with biases in low-level humidity and meridional moisture transport within the low-level jet. The fact that conventional parameterizations of convection, even with high-resolution, cannot capture MCSs over the US suggests that methods with explicit representation of kilometer-scale convective organization, such as the MMF, may be necessary for improving the simulation of these convective systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Beryllium Isotopes in Rainfall for Stratospheric-Tropospheric Exchange Dynamics Experiment (BIRDIE) (Final Report)

The Beryllium Isotopes in Rainfall for Stratospheric-Tropospheric Exchange Dynamics Experiment or BIRDIE was a precipitation collection campaign designed to measure cosmogenic isotopes of beryllium in rainfall and other forms of precipitation across the DOE Southern Great Plains (SGP) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site. Precipitation samples were collected over three weeks (May 21-June 10, 2022) at 11 SGP sites across a 120 km 2 domain in northern and central Oklahoma. The field campaign targeted summer-time convection rain events. We aimed to capture any spatial and/or temporal variability in the concentrations of beryllium-10 (10Be) and beryllium-7 (7Be) across the SGP ARM site during these rainfall events. The ratio of 10Be to 7Be (10/7Be) has been shown to be a powerful tracer for transport processes in the stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) system (e.g., Koch and Rind 1998). Any observed variability is analyzed to see if it could be linked to STE processes, including overshooting of deep convection clouds which penetrate the lower stratosphere. Six wet weather system events were collected within our three-week span. Five out of six of these rainfall events are classified as moderately to strongly convective. Those events are studied in more detail. The five systems also follow each other over a short time period of eleven days. In our rainfall samples we observed spatial and event variability in the concentrations of beryllium-10 and -7 which resulted in variability of 10/7 Be ratios. Each weather event appeared to exhibit a unique 10/7Be pattern across the domain that was not directly linked to storm total precipitation amount. To better understand the causes for this spatial variability, cloud characteristics in the domain were looked at to assess cloud type, cloud height and depth information. We also ran Hysplit back trajectories to identify possible air mass and moisture origins across our events. Detailed analysis is still on-going. The purpose of this technical report is to provide background on using cosmogenic isotopes as atmospheric tracers, describe the experimental design, and present the beryllium concentration and ratio data.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Beryllium Isotopes in Rainfall for Stratospheric-Tropospheric Exchange Dynamics Experiment (BIRDIE) (Field Campaign Report)

The Beryllium Isotopes in Rainfall for Stratospheric-Tropospheric Exchange Dynamics Experiment or BIRDIE was a precipitation collection campaign designed to measure cosmogenic isotopes of beryllium in rainfall and other forms of precipitation across the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s Southern Great Plains (SGP) atmospheric observatory. Precipitation samples were collected over three weeks (May 21-June 10, 2022) at 11 SGP sites across a 120-km 2 domain in northern and central Oklahoma. The field campaign targeted summertime convection rain events. We aimed to capture any spatial and/or temporal variability in the concentrations of beryllium-10 (10Be) and beryllium-7 (7Be) across the ARM SGP site during these rainfall events. The ratio of 10Be to 7Be (10/7Be) has been shown to be a powerful tracer for transport processes in the stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) system (e.g., Koch and Rind 1998). Any observed variability is analyzed to see if it could be linked to STE processes, including overshooting of deep convection clouds that penetrate the lower stratosphere. Six wet weather system events were collected within our three-week span. Five out of six of these rainfall events are classified as moderately to strongly convective. Those events are studied in more detail. The five systems also follow each other over a short period of 11 days. In our rainfall samples we observed spatial and event variability in the concentrations of beryllium-10 and -7 that resulted in variability of 10/7Be ratios. Each weather event appeared to exhibit a unique 10/7Be pattern across the domain that was not directly linked to storm total precipitation amount. To better understand the causes for this spatial variability, cloud characteristics in the domain were looked at to assess cloud type, cloud height, and depth information. We also ran Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model back trajectories to identify possible air mass and moisture origins across our events. Detailed analysis is ongoing. The purpose of this technical report is to provide background on using cosmogenic isotopes as atmospheric tracers, describe the experimental design, and present the beryllium concentration and ratio data. Lastly, we note that BIRDIE coincided with two other deep convection field campaigns in the area: The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)’s Dynamics and Chemistry of the Summer Stratosphere (DCOTSS) experiment (https://dcotss.org/) centered in Salina, Kansas, and the Targeted Observation by Radars and (uncrewed aerial systems) UAS of Supercells (TORUS) experiment (https://catalog.eol.ucar.edu/torus_2022) across the U.S. Central Plains. Additionally, a Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory ( LLNL) team at DCOTSS attempted to measure 10Be/7Be ratios on aerosols collected in situ in the lower and mid-stratosphere over Kansas using high-altitude balloons. Precipitation samples were also collected on the ground in Salina, Kansas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Sub-millisecond keyhole pore detection in laser powder bed fusion using sound and light sensors and machine learning

Laser powder bed fusion is a mainstream additive manufacturing technology widely used to manufacture complex parts in prominent sectors, including aerospace, biomedical, and automotive industries. However, during the printing process, the presence of an unstable vapor depression can lead to a type of defect called keyhole porosity, which is detrimental to the part quality. In this study, we developed an effective approach to locally detect the generation of keyhole pores during the printing process by leveraging machine learning and a suite of optical and acoustic sensors. Simultaneous synchrotron x-ray imaging allows the direct visualization of pore generation events inside the sample, offering high-fidelity ground truth. A neural network model adopting SqueezeNet architecture using single-sensor data was developed to evaluate the fidelity of each sensor for capturing keyhole pore generation events. Our comparative study shows that the near infrared images gave the highest prediction accuracy, followed by 100 kHz and 20 kHz microphones, and the photodiode sensitive to processing laser wavelength had the lowest accuracy. Using a single sensor, over 90% prediction accuracy can be achieved with a temporal resolution as short as 0.1 ms. A data fusion scheme was also developed with features extracted using SqueezeNet neural network architecture and classification using different machine learning algorithms. Our work demonstrates the correlation between the characteristic optical and acoustic emissions and the keyhole oscillation behavior, and thereby provides strong physics support for the machine learning approach.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Learning Latent Interactions for Event Identification via Graph Neural Networks and PMU Data

Phasor measurement units (PMUs) are being widely installed on power systems, providing a unique opportunity to enhance wide-area situational awareness. One essential application is the use of PMU data for real-time event identification. However, how to take full advantage of all PMU data in event identification is still an open problem. Thus, we propose a novel method that performs event identification by mining interaction graphs among different PMUs. The proposed interaction graph inference method follows an entirely data-driven manner without knowing the physical topology. Moreover, unlike previous works that treat interactive learning and event identification as two different stages, our method learns interactions jointly with the identification task, thereby improving the accuracy of graph learning and ensuring seamless integration between the two stages. Moreover, to capture multi-scale event patterns, a dilated inception-based method is investigated to perform feature extraction of PMU data. To test the proposed data-driven approach, a large real-world dataset from tens of PMU sources and the corresponding event logs have been utilized in this work. We report numerical results validate that our method has higher classification accuracy compared to previous methods.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Capturing Sub‐Kilometer Flood Inundation Dynamics During the California Rain‐on‐Snow Events of 2017

The severe impacts of rain‐on‐snow (ROS) extreme events have been widely recognized and studied. However, unlike hydrological processes, flood inundation dynamics and the relative contribution of rainfall and snowmelt during ROS events remain under‐investigated. We diagnosed and documented sub‐kilometer spatio‐temporal dynamics of flood inundation during the 2017 California ROS events, simulated by a 2‐dimensional hydrodynamic model, River Dynamical Core (RDycore). RDycore shows good performance in capturing fine‐scale flood inundation dynamics against gauge measurements (with a median correlation coefficient of 0.81) and satellite observations. On top of rainfall, snowmelt not only increases the mean maximum inundation depth (12.0%–25.1%), but also expands the total flooded area (19.9%–31.9%) and prolongs the mean flood duration (3.4%–7.1%) across the events. Our findings offer an explicit and accurate picture of when and where ROS flooding could occur and how snowmelt increases flood hazard, valuable for risk assessment and infrastructure planning.

Flood inundation↗

DOE OSTI2025

pyTCR: A tropical cyclone rainfall model for python

pyTCR is a climatology software package developed in the Python programming language. It integrates the capabilities of several legacy physical models and increases computational efficiency to allow rapid estimation of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall consistent with the large-scale environment. Specifically, pyTCR implements a horizontally distributed and vertically integrated model [Zhu et al., 2013] for simulating rainfall driven by TCs. Along storm tracks, rainfall is estimated by computing the cross-boundary-layer, upward water vapor transport caused by different mechanisms including frictional convergence, vortex stretching, large-scale baroclinic effect (i.e., wind shear), topographic forcing, and radiative cooling [Lu et al., 2018]. The package provides essential functionalities for modeling and interpreting spatio-temporal TC rainfall data. pyTCR requires a limited number of model input parameters, making it a convenient and useful tool for analyzing rainfall mechanisms driven by TCs. To sample rare (most intense) rainfall events that are often of great societal interest, pyTCR adapts and leverages outputs from a statistical-dynamical TC downscaling model [Lin et al., 2023] capable of rapidly generating a large number of synthetic TCs given a certain climate. As a result, pyTCR significantly reduces computational effort and improves the efficiency in capturing extreme TC rainfall events at the tail of the distributions from limited datasets. Furthermore, the TC downscaling model is forced entirely by large-scale environmental conditions from reanalysis data or coupled General Circulation Models (GCMs), simplifying the projection of TC-induced rainfall and wind speed under future climate using pyTCR. Finally, pyTCR can be coupled with hydrological and wind models to assess risks associated with independent and compound events (e.g., storm surges and freshwater flooding).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗