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MSD CoP Webinar: Applied Science for Decision-Making at the Water-Energy Nexus

Context: This webinar was hosted by the MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice (MSD CoP; https://multisectordynamics.org). Abstract: The energy transition is a game-changer across multiple sectors, requiring researchers and practitioners to re-evaluate the evolving connections between climate, water, and power systems, as well as the associated co-management of resources and decision-making. In anticipation of new technologies, policies, business models, and other solutions, applied science for decision-making at the climate-water-energy nexus is needed to support transitions with the expected climate resilience, maintained and enhanced energy security, thriving economies, and equity considerations. Through panelists' applied research and operational experience, the webinar will provide lesson-learnt in how to increase the readiness of water-energy research and become actionable in the context of energy transitions. A number of themes will be discussed, including the connection between growing computational resources and complexity of models, and the implications on the intended users, the actual actionable products, the availability of data for validation of the models, uncertainty characterization and decision-making under uncertainty, and the communication of the novelty to decision-makers and the public. Presenters : David McCollum (Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Co-Chair), and Gokul Iyer (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; Co-Chair), Curt Jawdy (Tennessee Valley Authority), Nathalie Voisin (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory), and Andrew D. Jones (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory) Moderator: Pat M. Reed (MSD CoP Facilitation Team) This webinar was held on: April 30, 2024 from 1-2 PM ET

Energy↗

High-dimensional Data-driven Energy optimization for Multi-Modal Transit Agencies (HD-EMMA) (Final Technical Report)

Public bus transit services in the U.S. are responsible for at least 19.7 million metric tons of CO 2 emission annually. Electric vehicles (EVs) can have a much lower environmental impact than comparable internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), especially in urban areas. Unfortunately, EVs are also much more expensive than ICEVs. As a result, many public transit agencies can afford only mixed fleets of transit vehicles, consisting of EVs, hybrids (HEVs), and ICEVs. Transit agencies that operate such mixed fleets of vehicles face a challenging optimization problem: these agencies need to decide which vehicles are assigned to serving which transit trips. Since the advantage of EVs over ICEVs varies depending on the route and time of day (e.g., the benefit of EVs is higher in slower traffic with frequent stops and lower on highways), the assignment can have a significant effect on energy use and, hence, environmental impact. Through this project, we have developed reference data about energy collections and constructed a set of machine learning models that can accurately predict the energy consumption for the whole fleet at the level of each trip. We have used these models to develop a scheduling and assignment strategy that can rotate the different vehicle types across the transit agencies’ routes. The optimization algorithm ensures that the vehicles are matched to trips considering weather patterns, expected congestion, and road gradients to minimize the overall energy usage. We list the key observations from our project for other practitioners below. Details are available in the report, and the list of source code and our publications are included in the appendix. 1. We have demonstrated the feasibility of collecting, merging and analyzing large volumes of high-resolution real-world telemetry data from a mixed vehicle fleet. To mitigate the inherent noise of the recorded GPS points, the team developed an algorithm that filters data and maps the points onto a street. The algorithm considers previous and subsequent location measurements and different characteristics of nearby streets to determine how likely the vehicle travels on them. Then, the team segmented the time series into disjoint contiguous samples based on adjacent road segments and repeated the outlier detection and removal. For each data point, the team added features corresponding to elevation changes within the samples, weather features, such as temperature, and traffic data, such as speed ratio between actual speed and free-flow speed. 2. We have developed two forms of machine learning models that be used to understand and analyze the energy operations of a mixed vehicle transit fleet. The micro prediction model provides estimates of instantaneous energy prediction for all types of buses (diesel, hybrid, and electric). Such a model is important in evaluating the energy impacts of real-time bus operation strategies, but it is challenging due to diversified driving cycles of transit buses. The model can help the drivers understand the impact of their driving behaviors and short-term congestions. The macro prediction models estimate average energy consumption across the whole trip considering the features: distance traveled, various road-type features, elevation change, day of the week, time of day, various weather features (temperature, humidity, etc.), and traffic features (speed ratio and jam factor). 3. We have demonstrated that it is possible to transfer the machine learning models we have developed in this project to other teams and cities by using inductive transfer learning. We also showed that the performance of the macro energy prediction models can be improved using a multi-task learning approach where the learning parameters are shared between the models being developed for different vehicle types. The advantage of this approach is improved learning performance as the models can exploit common spatio-temporal and environmental characteristics. 4. Finally, we have developed trip and vehicle assignment and scheduling algorithms that use the energy prediction models and develop a trip to vehicle type (diesel, electric, hybrid) assignment for the whole operation to reduce overall emissions and cost. We have shown through simulations that the proposed algorithms can save $\$$ 48,910 in energy costs and 175 metric tons of CO 2 emission annually for CARTA.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

The View from the Top of the Mountain: Building a Community of Practice with the GridWise Transactive Energy Framework

The topic of “transactive energy” has received growing attention over the past eighteen months. It has been a part, for example, of the NY Reforming the Energy Vision discussions and the topic of activities such as the National Institute of Standards Transactive Energy Challenge. The growing discussion stems from the realization that new approaches are needed to efficiently and reliably integrate growing numbers of distributed energy resources. In anticipation of the applicability of transactive energy systems to emerging challenges in Grid integration, the GridWise® Architecture Council (GWAC) began to build a community of practice in the area of transactive energy systems. Starting with a workshop on the topic of “transactive energy” in May 2011, the Council brought together about a dozen interested researchers and practitioners from utilities, vendors, labs and academia to compare their approaches and experience in order to create common definitions and understanding within this topical area. This was followed in March 2012 with a second workshop during which about twice as many attendees continued the discussion. At this workshop the need for both a roadmap and a document documenting the foundations of transactive energy, common vocabulary and other definitional aspects was recognized. These two workshops led to the Council organizing the First International Conference and Workshop on Transactive Energy which took place May 23 – 24, 2013 in Portland, Oregon. The Council has continued this work with additional topical workshops, the Second International Conference and Workshop on Transactive Energy held in December 2014, and is currently organizing the Third International Conference and Workshop on Transactive Energy Systems to be held in May 2016. This article provides a summary of the Council’s work to build the community of practice through creation of a Transactive Energy Framework document and related activities. In addition to seeing transactive energy discussions on the agenda for many conferences there are also group activities relating to transactive energy being coordinated by both NIST and SGIP with which GWAC is also involved. The NIST work aims to develop and enhance modeling and simulation tools and integration into modeling and simulation platforms for Transactive Energy evaluation, as well as demonstrate how different transactive approaches may be used to improve reliability and efficiency of the electric grid. This will be accomplished through development of a set of scenarios that can serve as ongoing reference points for modeling and simulation. It is also an example of helping to develop a Transactive Energy community. The ongoing Transactive Energy Coordination Group formed by SGIP reviews the progress and directions of transactive energy activities in related parts of the SGIP and collaborating organizations such as GWAC. One of its activities is assembling a core set of transactive energy use cases as representative of the transactive energy interface requirements. This will enable assessment of interoperability requirements for transactive energy applications and an analysis of standards coverage, gaps, and future needs.

Tranasactive Energy↗

Assessment of Existing OpenStudio Measures: Reviews, Interviews, and Future Developments

OpenStudio Measure development is continuously in progress and greatly propelled by the collaborative efforts within the building energy modeling community. To ensure the widespread adoption and benefit of OpenStudio Measures, developers must understand the current status of Measure development and the needs of OpenStudio Measure users. The first step involves a comprehensive review of existing content to prevent redundancy and gain insights into how OpenStudio Measures are used in the building energy modeling community. This knowledge can then be integrated into the Measure development process, and the expertise of practitioners and OpenStudio Measure users can be leveraged to shape future Measures. Numerous OpenStudio Measures have been created and shared on the Building Component Library (BCL). The BCL is an open-source repository housing various OpenStudio-related resources, including building component blocks, descriptive metadata, and Measures describing modifications to building energy models. The OpenStudio Measures in BCL encompass a wide range of energy conservation Measures from basic lighting power reduction to complex HVAC model transformation. They also enable users to generate customized reports and facilitate the integration of energy simulation with other analytical processes. This report presents review of 272 currently available OpenStudio Measures in BCL. The OpenStudio Measures were reviewed by category and subcategory. These Measures are summarized by their functionalities and keywords. To gain insights into how OpenStudio Measures are used in building energy modeling community, interviews were conducted. A total of 12 interview responses were collected from 6 individuals in the industry and 6 individuals in academia. The knowledge acquired from reviewing the existing Measures and interview results will be integrated into the Measure development process, and the expertise of practitioners and OpenStudio Measure users will be leveraged to shape future Measures.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Policy, Permit, Perform: Using City Benchmarking Data and Building Construction Permit History to Identify Energy Performance Improvements

The City of Portland (City) and Multnomah County 2015 Climate Action Plan targets a 40 percent reduction in carbon emissions below 1990 levels by 2030. To reach this goal, the plan includes a key objective to reduce the total energy use of existing buildings by 25 percent. Buildings are responsible for one-half of carbon emissions in Portland, Oregon, U.S., and improving their performance is critical to achieving the City’s climate goals. As part of its climate action planning, the City passed an ordinance on April 22, 2015, requiring commercial buildings 20,000 ft2 and larger to benchmark and disclose annual energy performance metrics through ENERGY STAR® Portfolio Manager® (ESPM), including greenhouse gas emissions, building energy use intensity (EUI) and ENERGY STAR scores. Twenty-five cities in the U.S. have adopted similar policies requiring energy benchmarking. These policies are generating a treasure trove of data about the drivers of building performance, but practitioners are only beginning to link benchmarking data to other datasets to produce actionable insight into improving building performance. In 2016, the City received a financial assistance award from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) through the Cities Leading through Energy Analysis and Planning project (Award Number DE-0007737). Portland’s project evaluated the application of the DOE Building Energy Asset Score Tool and rating system developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to commercial buildings that report to the City. The City used building construction permit history to develop Asset Scores for a set of office buildings that reported energy performance for 2015 – the first year the City mandated energy benchmarking and reporting for commercial buildings 50,000 ft2 and larger. The primary project objective was to link energy benchmarking data and commercial building permit data to analyze commercial buildings systems that present the best, specific opportunities to improve energy performance. Integrating these datasets from two City departments, the Bureau of Development Services and the Bureau of Planning and Sustainability, could expand Portland’s use of analytics to inform climate policy decisions and strategic targeting of financial incentives for building owners and managers who are best positioned to improve the performance of their buildings. The project began with the commercial benchmarking data received for 340 commercial buildings that submitted calendar year 2015 energy reports. The City retained Research Into Action and Energy 350 (RIA team) to evaluate this self-reported benchmarking data. Based on a survey of 53 building managers, the RIA team found that most respondents used the City’s compliance tools, including a How-to Guide and Help Desk, and found access to utility data to be straightforward. However, almost one-third of the respondents encountered challenges when estimating the gross floor area (GFA), and some experienced confusion regarding the input of property use types and details into ESPM. Based on the RIA team’s recommendations, the City refined its How-to Guide, created online answers to frequently asked questions, and hosted office hour sessions to help building managers accurately characterize their building’s physical characteristics and operations in ESPM. Concurrently with the RIA team’s evaluation, the City worked with PNNL to estimate DOE Asset Score Preview (Preview) scores for 181 of the 340 commercial buildings that submitted ESPM reports to the City. Asset Score Tool is a web-based tool developed by PNNL for DOE to evaluate and rate the as-built energy efficiency of a building. Asset Score Tool’s full analysis capability runs a detailed energy model based on building geometry, age, envelope, lighting and mechanical systems using standard operating assumptions to give the building a score, similar to a miles per gallon rating for a car. Preview, a simplified deployment of the full Asset Score Tool, provides a preliminary score range using only seven data points, six of which are readily available in the ESPM benchmarking data. Analysis of the combined Preview scores and the operational ESPM scores identified buildings with a high potential for energy improvements through either retro-commissioning and retuning of existing operations or capital investments into building systems. The City contracted Whole Building Solutions (WBS) to mine building permit history and develop full Asset Scores for a subset of 26 office buildings that were eligible for both ENERGY STAR scores and Asset Scores. WBS researched permits and building plans to identify mechanical, lighting and envelope systems and other building characteristics necessary to complete Asset Scores. This historical data was recorded using the web-based Asset Score Tool, which evaluates the as designed energy efficiency of existing buildings. Much of this City information was available online after 2010; however, WBS had to search through microfiche files and the City’s database to obtain permit and plan history prior to 2010. Although building geometry, mechanical system type and basic envelope information was consistently identifiable, WBS found permit data gaps that prevented complete and accurate Asset Scores for most of the office buildings. If the City decides to develop Asset Scores based on building permit information in the future, WBS recommended requiring lighting plans, control diagrams and as-built drawings that reflect how the buildings are actually constructed. In addition, WBS recommended uploading plans and permits from microfiche storage into a more comprehensive, searchable database consistent with the City’s current online permit information. To identify the actual lighting types, WBS and City staff conducted site visits of all 26 office buildings. As part of managing the flow of ESPM and Asset Score data for the project, Earth Advantage, a sub-recipient of the Cities-LEAP award, created a DOE Standard Energy Efficiency Data (SEED) (USDOE 2018) instance for the City and used Asset Score’s Application Programming Interface (API) (Asset Score 2018) capabilities to develop two new features in the SEED Platform™: (1) automated Asset Score Preview ranges calculated based on benchmarking data and the City’s estimate of number of building floors; and (2) storage of full Asset Score information. Leveraging the construction permit history and site visit information for the 26 office buildings, The Cadmus Group (Cadmus) analyzed benchmarking data and Asset Score information to identify opportunities and drivers to improve performance. Correlation and regression analysis of the combined dataset was completed to determine whether building operations or specific systems – mechanical, lighting or envelope – present the best opportunities to improve energy performance. The central outcome of this project was Cadmus’ detailed analysis of the richer dataset that was created by combining the City of Portland’s commercial building permit activity and building-specific energy performance information based on metrics from ESPM and Asset Score Tool. Some of their findings collaborate with well-known facts, such as buildings with less efficient lighting systems are good targets for efficiency improvements through lighting upgrades. This analysis also helped identify that individual heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment efficiency does not necessarily correlate with building performance. However, overall HVAC system performance, as measured with the Total System Performance Ratio (TSPR) metric, is a better indicator of building performance (Goel et al. 2014). As a metric, TSPR considers whole system performance that includes equipment efficiency and system controls, such as resets for static pressure and chilled water setpoints, which can be more effective and financially feasible options for improving building performance. Given the high cost associated with envelope retrofits, opportunities to upgrade envelope insulation are likely to be limited. However, buildings with single-pane and non-thermal break windows are good candidates for window replacements, such as upgrading to double-pane windows with thermal breaks. This research project determined that developing Asset Scores based on site visits is preferable to mining City building permit data. In addition, the use of benchmarking data to develop Asset Score Preview Scores is recommended as a first step in engaging building managers to develop full Asset Scores. Asset Score Tool outputs can help building managers quickly identify opportunities for improvement and then work with the utility incentive administrator and energy service providers to develop their retrofit plan. Where full Asset Scores are available, analysis using a quadrant matrix with ENERGY STAR scores is recommended to identify buildings that present the best opportunities for operational-behavioral improvements versus ones with opportunities for upgrades to physical building systems. This workflow and the tools will help cities, utility incentive administrators, building portfolio managers and energy service providers develop energy programs and strategies for screening and analysis of buildings with the greatest energy savings potential. This report describes the project approach and research results to inform future coordination of ESPM and Asset Score data, including the use of benchmarking data to generate Preview scores. Given better awareness of energy performance, building managers can make more informed decisions to reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions. With cities, states and jurisdictions adopting benchmarking and auditing ordinances, there are substantial amounts of data submitted to cities that could be used to inform investments in energy efficiency.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The MIRTE Experimental Program: An Opportunity to Test Structural Materials in Various Configurations in Thermal Energy Spectrum

The MIRTE (Materials in Interacting and Reflecting configurations, all Thicknesses) program was established to answer the needs of criticality safety practitioners in terms of experimental validation of structural materials and to possibly contribute to nuclear data improvement, which ultimately supports reactor safety analysis as well. MIRTE took the shape of a collaboration between the AREVA and ANDRA French industrialists and a noncommercial international funding partner such as the U.S. Department of Energy. The aim of this paper is to present the configurations of the MIRTE 1 and MIRTE 2 programs and to highlight the results of the titanium experiments recently published in the International Handbook of Evaluated Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A perspective on the redox properties of tetrapyrrole macrocycles

Tetrapyrrole macrocycles serve a multitude of roles in biological systems, including oxygen transport by heme and light harvesting and charge separation by chlorophylls and bacteriochlorophylls. Synthetic tetrapyrroles are utilized in diverse applications ranging from solar-energy conversion to photomedicine. Nevertheless, students beginning tetrapyrrole research, as well as established practitioners, are often puzzled when comparing properties of related tetrapyrroles. Questions arise as to why optical spectra of two tetrapyrroles often shift in wavelength/energy in a direction opposite to that predicted by common chemical intuition based on the size of a π-electron system. Gouterman's four-orbital model provides a framework for understanding these optical properties. Similarly, it can be puzzling as to why the oxidation potentials differ significantly when comparing two related tetrapyrroles, yet the reduction potentials change very little or shift in the opposite direction. In order to understand these redox properties, it must be recognized that structural/electronic alterations affect the four frontier molecular orbitals (HOMO, LUMO, HOMO-1 and LUMO+1) unequally and in many cases the LUMO+1, and not the LUMO, may track the HOMO in energy. This perspective presents a fundamental framework concerning tetrapyrrole electronic properties that should provide a foundation for rational molecular design in tetrapyrrole science.

chlorophyll↗

Data-Driven Benchmarking of Building Energy Efficiency Utilizing Statistical Frontier Models

Frontier methods quantify the energy efficiency of buildings by forming an efficient frontier (best-practice technology) and by comparing all buildings against that frontier. Because energy consumption fluctuates over time, the efficiency scores are stochastic random variables. Existing applications of frontier methods in energy efficiency either treat efficiency scores as deterministic values or estimate their uncertainty by resampling from one set of measurements. Availability of smart meter data (repeated measurements of energy consumption of buildings) enables using actual data to estimate the uncertainty in efficiency scores. Additionally, existing applications assume a linear form for an efficient frontier; i.e.,they assume that the best-practice technology scales up and down proportionally with building characteristics. However, previous research shows that buildings are nonlinear systems. This paper proposes a statistical method called stochastic energy efficiency frontier (SEEF) to estimate a bias-corrected efficiency score and its confidence intervals from measured data. The paper proposes an algorithm to specify the functional form of the frontier, identify the probability distribution of the efficiency score of each building using measured data, and rank buildings based on their energy efficiency. To illustrate the power of SEEF, this paper presents the results from applying SEEF on a smart meter data set of 307 residential buildings in the United States. SEEF efficiency scores are used to rank individual buildings based on energy efficiency, to compare subpopulations of buildings, and to identify irregular behavior of buildings across different time-of-use periods. SEEF is an improvement to the energy-intensity method (comparing kWh/sq.ft.): whereas SEEF identifies efficient buildings across the entire spectrum of building sizes, the energy-intensity method showed bias toward smaller buildings. The results of this research are expected to assist researchers and practitioners compare and rank (i.e.,benchmark) buildings more robustly and over a wider range of building types and sizes. Eventually, doing so is expected to result in improved resource allocation in energy-efficiency programs.

Kavousian, A↗

Seismic Loading for FAST: May 2011 — August 2011

As more wind farms are constructed in seismically active regions, earthquake loading increases in prominence for design and analysis of wind turbines. Early investigation of seismic load tended to simplify the rotor and nacelle as a lumped mass on top of the turbine tower. This simplification allowed the use of techniques developed for conventional civil structures, such as buildings, to beeasily applied to wind turbines. However, interest is shifting to more detailed models that consider loads for turbine components other than the tower. These improved models offer three key capabilities in consideration of base shaking for turbines: 1) The inclusion of aerodynamics and turbine control; 2) The ability to consider component loads other than just tower loads; and 3) An improvedrepresentation of turbine response in higher modes by reducing modeling simplifications. Both experimental and numerical investigations have shown that, especially for large modern turbines, it is important to consider interaction between earthquake input, aerodynamics, and operational loads. These investigations further show that consideration of higher mode activity may be necessary in theanalysis of the seismic response of turbines. Since the FAST code is already capable of considering these factors, modifications were developed that allow simulation of base shaking. This approach allows consideration of this additional load source within a framework, the FAST code that is already familiar to many researchers and practitioners.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Exercise Design Guidance for Solar Cybersecurity

The intent of this resource is to provide recommendations on how State Energy Offices and Public Utility Commissions might design an energy emergency exercise, drill, or other simulation focused on solar cybersecurity scenarios . Exercise practitioners, planners, or facilitators interested in exploring solar cybersecurity incident response, preparedness, recovery, or mitigation may find this a valuable resource . This is an advanced supplementary resource for persons or entities with prior exercise experience and knowledge . It should not be used as a baseline educational resource for how to conduct and evaluate an exercise . It is based on a set of standard concepts, terms, and procedures that are common among the exercise community . This tool may be referenced in conjunction with the Hypothetical Solar Cyberattack Scenarios and Impacts tool within the CATSS Toolkit

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Clear Sky Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay Regional Policy Landscape Analysis (Florida Energy Resilience Policy Landscape) [Slides]

This deck focuses on policies and programs that may enable, constrain, or inform the deployment of solar and storage for resilience in the Tampa Bay Region. This deck also reviews planning approaches within the Tampa Bay Region to ensure that resources developed under the Clear Sky Tampa Bay project are consistent with established practice and relevant to regional practitioners.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Climate change and energy security: an analysis of policy research

The literature on climate change's impacts on energy security is scattered across disparate fields of research and schools of thought. Much of this literature has been produced outside of the academy by scholars and practitioners working in "think tanks," government agencies, and international/multilateral institutions. Here we reviewed a selected set of 58 articles and reports primarily from such sources and performed textual analysis of the arguments. Our review of this literature identifies three potential mechanisms for linking climate change and energy security: Climate change may 1) create second-order effects that may exacerbate social instability and disrupt energy systems; 2) directly impact energy supply and/or systems or 3) influence energy security through the effects of climate-related policies. We identify emerging risks to energy security driven by climate mitigation tech-nology choices but find less evidence of climate change's direct physical impacts. We used both empirical and qualitative selection factors for choosing the grey literature sample. The sources we selected were published in the last 5 years, available through electronic media and were written in language accessible to general policy or academic readers. The organi-zations that published the literature had performed previous research in the general fields of energy and/or climate change with some analytical content and identified themselves as non-partisan. This literature is particularly valuable to scholars because identifies understudied relationships that can be rigorously assessed through academic tools and methodologies and informs a translational research agenda that will allow scholars to engage with practitioners to address challenges that lie at the nexus of climate change and energy security.

climate change↗

Large Language Models (LLMs) for Energy Systems Research

The integration of Large Language Models (LLMs) in energy systems research promises transformative results, as demonstrated in this work, particularly in the realms of information retrieval and legal document analysis. We have developed a chat-based interface, specifically designed to query an extensive corpus of technical reports from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). This interface capitalizes on the natural language processing capabilities of LLMs, providing future consumers of NREL research with a user-friendly platform to access and extract valuable information from technical documents, thus enhancing the dissemination of research to the public. In addition to information retrieval, we have employed LLMs to extract renewable energy siting ordinances from a variety of legal documents, a task traditionally driven by significant human labor. This automated extraction not only supports the ongoing development of the high-impact NREL siting ordinance database but also ensures the database's accuracy and comprehensiveness. Crucially, we have augmented the performance of LLMs through the integration of a decision tree framework, resulting in a substantial improvement in extraction accuracy. Comparative analysis with manual efforts has shown that this approach not only rivals but also significantly surpasses human accuracy, heralding increased reliability in legal document analysis for energy systems research. To democratize access to these advancements and foster collaborative research, we introduce the "Energy Language Model" (ELM), an open-source software package. ELM encapsulates the methodologies and tools developed in this work, providing researchers and practitioners with a robust toolkit to conduct similar analyses within their respective domains. Through these contributions, this work underscores the immense potential of LLMs in revolutionizing energy systems research, improving accuracy, efficiency, and accessibility in the field.

automation↗

Clean energy technology pathways from research to commercialization: Policy and practice case studies

Clean energy research and development (R and D) leading to commercial technologies is vital to economic development, technology competitiveness, and reduced environmental impact. Over the past 30 years, such efforts have advanced technology performance and reduced cost by leveraging network effects and economies of scale. After demonstrating promise in applied R and D, successful clean energy and energy efficiency technologies are incorporated into an initial product sold by the private sector. Despite its importance, processes by which first commercialization occurs are difficult to generalize while capturing specific insights from practitioners in markets and technologies. This paper presents a policy-focused qualitative assessment of the first commercialization of four diverse energy technologies: thin film photovoltaics, wind turbine blades, dual-stage refrigeration evaporators, and fuel cells for material handling equipment. Each technology presents distinct value propositions, markets, and regulatory drivers. The case studies indicate three common characteristics of successful first commercialization for new energy technologies: 1) good fit between the technology, R&D infrastructure, and public-private partnership models; 2) high degree of alignment of government regulations and R&D priorities with market forces; and 3) compatibility between time scales required for R&D, product development, and opportunities. These findings may inform energy investment decision-making, maximize benefits from R&D, and advance the transition to a low-emission future.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Statistical change detection of building energy consumption: Applications to savings estimation

The surge in interval meter data availability and associated activity in energy data analytics has inspired new interest in advanced methods for building efficiency savings estimation. Statistical and machine learning approaches are being explored to improve the energy baseline models used to measure and verify savings. One outstanding challenge is the ability to identify and account for operational changes that may confound savings estimates. In the measurement and verification (M&V) context, ‘non-routine events’ (NREs) cause changes in building energy use that are not attributable to installed efficiency measures, and not accounted for in the baseline model’s independent variables. In the M&V process NREs must be accounted for as ‘adjustments’ to appropriately attribute the estimated energy savings to the specific efficiency interventions that were implemented. Currently this is a manual and custom process, conducted using professional judgment and engineering expertise. As such it remains a barrier in scaling and standardizing meter-based savings estimation. Here in this work, a data driven methodology was developed to (partially) automate, and therefore streamline the process of detecting NREs in the post-retrofit period and making associated savings adjustments. The proposed NRE detection algorithm is based on a statistical change point detection method and a dissimilarity metric. The dissimilarity metric measures the proximity between the actual time series of the post-retrofit energy consumption and the projected baseline, which is generated using a statistical baseline model. The suggested approach for NRE adjustment involves the NRE detection algorithm, the M&V practitioner, and a regression modeling algorithm. The performance of the detection and adjustment algorithm was evaluated using a simulation-generated test data set, and two benchmark algorithms. Results show a high true positive detection rate (75%-100% across the test cases), higher than ideal false positive detection rates (20%-70%), and low errors in energy adjustment (<0.7%). These results indicate that the algorithm holds for helping M&V practitioners to streamline the process of handling NREs. Moreover, the change point algorithm and underlying statistical principles could prove valuable for other building analytics applications such as anomaly detection and fault diagnostics.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

An open source analysis framework for large-scale building energy modeling

Full integration of building energy modelling into the design and retrofit process has long been a goal of building scientists and practitioners. However, significant barriers still exist. Among them are the lack of available: (1) configurable technology stacks for performing both small- and large-scale analyses, (2) different classes of algorithms compatible with common design workflows, and (3) analysis tools for effectively visualizing large-scale simulation results. This article discusses the OpenStudio® Analysis Framework: a scalable analysis framework for building energy modelling that was developed to overcome the three barriers listed above. The framework is open-source and scalable to facilitate wider adoption and has a clearly defined application programming interface upon which other applications can be built. It runs on high-performance computing systems, within cloud infrastructure, and on laptops, and uses a common workflow to enable different classes of algorithms. Lessons learned from previous development efforts are also discussed.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Technical Potential Assessment for the Renewable Energy Zone (REZ) Process: A GIS-Based Approach

Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based energy resource and technical potential assessments identify areas capable of supporting high levels of renewable energy (RE) development as part of a Renewable Energy Zone (REZ) Transmission Planning process. This document expands on the REZ Process to aid practitioners in conducting GIS-based RE resource and technical potential assessments. The REZ process is an approach to plan, approve, and build transmission infrastructure that connects REZs - geographic areas that have high-quality RE resources, suitable topography and land-use designations, and demonstrated developer interest - to the power system. The REZ process helps to increase the share of solar photovoltaic (PV), wind, and other resources while also maintaining reliability and economics.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A National Framework for Energy Audit Ordinances

A handful of U.S. cities have begun to incorporate energy audits into their building energy performance policies. Cities are beginning to recognize an opportunity to use several information tools to bring to real estate markets both motivation to improve efficiency and actionable pointers on how to improve. Care is necessary to combine such tools as operational ratings, energy audits, asset ratings, and building retro-commissioning in an effective policy regime that maximizes market impact. In this paper, the authors focus on energy audits and consider both the needs of the policies' implementers in local governments and the emerging standards and federal tools to improve data collection and practitioner engagement. Over the past two years, we have compared several related data formats such as New York City's existing audit reporting spreadsheet, ASHRAE guidance on building energy auditing, and the DOE Building Energy Asset Score, to identify a possible set of required and optional fields for energy audit reporting programs. Doing so revealed tensions between the ease of data collection and the value of more detailed information, which had implications for the effort and qualifications needed to complete the energy audit. The resulting list of data fields is now feeding back into the regulatory process in several cities currently working on implementing or developing audit policies. Using complementary policies and standardized tools for data transmission, the next generation of policies and programs will be tailored to local building stock and can more effectively target improvement opportunities through each building's life.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗