Institutional Transformation: Using Detailed Building Energy Models for Site-Wide Energy Conservation Strategies.
Abstract not provided.
Villa, Daniel↗
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Innovations in Building Energy Modeling: Research and Development Opportunities for Emerging Technologies
Building energy modeling (BEM) is a multipurpose tool for building energy efficiency (EE). The U.S. Department of Energy Building Technologies Office (BTO) seeks to expand the use and effectiveness of BEM in the design and operation of commercial and residential buildings with the goal of achieving lasting reductions in total and peak energy use. This report identifies gaps and outlines recommended initiatives to achieve this goal, based on a combination of technical analysis and stakeholder input. In addition to BTO, this report can benefit BEM professionals (architects, mechanical engineers, energy consultants, building auditors, equipment manufacturers, and BEM software vendors) and BEM clients (building owners and operators, EE program administrators, EE service providers, policymakers, and policy and code jurisdictions such as states and cities). This report was developed in two phases. In the first, BTO worked with a team from Navigant Consulting (now Guidehouse) to characterize objectives, opportunities, and current activities; identify gaps and barriers; and define initiatives. To collect input, Navigant conducted telephone interviews and workshops with industry experts. The initial phase produced a draft report, which was released for public review in 2016 and yielded over 400 comments. Based on these comments, BTO compiled a second draft report that addressed many of those comments while acknowledging changes that had occurred both at BTO and in the industry. Unlike the first draft report, the second focused much more heavily on BTO’s own role, portfolio, and activities. BTO is a direct player in the BEM field - it funds the development of several significant software packages that are embedded in commercial products - and transparency about its goals and future plans is requisite. BTO recognizes that a great number of other public and private organizations contribute to the BEM enterprise. With the second draft report, BTO did not attempt to produce a blueprint for the industry as a whole, but rather a working document BTO can use to iteratively solicit stakeholder input and synthesize it into a program. BTO released the second draft report for public review in 2019. The second round of review generated 83 pages of feedback and comments - almost exactly the length of the draft report itself - a significant portion of which was collected and synthesized by IBPSA-USA Advocacy Committee. This final report incorporates this feedback. This report does not address the use of BEM in support of building-based grid services, a recent BTO initiative called Grid-interactive Efficient Buildings (GEB). In 2019, BTO published a report that specifically addresses the role of BEM - and other “integration” technologies - in GEB.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Empirical Validation of Building Energy Modeling using Flexible Research Platform
Recently, efforts have been made to provide reliable empirical data for ANSI/ASHRAE Standard 140, Standard Method of Test for the Evaluation of Building Energy Analysis Computer Programs, to enable improved accuracy of building energy model (BEM) engines and improved characterization of their accuracy. The motivation for this effort is that the use of reliable empirical validation data sets in the evaluation of building energy modeling tools will lead to more consistent and validated simulation engines across all software vendors. This would expedite the use of building energy modeling in designing new buildings and retrofitting existing buildings, which delivers more energy efficient buildings.As part of a three-year multi-lab empirical validation project sponsored by U.S. DOE, this research project generated cooling season test plans by reviewing ASHRAE Standard 140, and the tests were performed based on the test plan. Finally, the experimental data sets were compared with the EnergyPlus model to demonstrate the validation procedure.
Im, Piljae↗
Development of a metamodelling framework for building energy models with application to fifth-generation district heating and cooling networks
Fully defined physics-based building energy models can accurately represent building systems; however, generating models based on high-level parameters is time consuming and simulation time of complex models can be slow. This article discusses the development of a Metamodelling Framework to create metamodels from a building energy modelling dataset. The framework generates metamodels using either linear regression, random forests, or support vector regressions. A fifth-generation district heating and cooling system analysis use case was used to motivate the development of the framework. The use case required quick and accurate representations of annual building loads reported hourly. Typical annual building modelling approaches can result in a runtime of 10 min. The metamodels runtime was reduced to less than 10 s to load and run an annual simulation with user-defined covariates. The results of the metamodel performance and an abbreviated topology analysis based on the motivating use case will be presented.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Pilgrim Hot Springs Building Dimensions and Energy Modeling
This dataset was created to model the anticipated heating load of a geothermal project in development for the historical site of Pilgrim Hot Springs, and adds to the history of geothermal studies at the site. Models include an historical building (Nun's Quarters), existing modern buildings (Caretaker's Cabin, Igloo, Visitor's Cabin, Staff Shower Hut), and planned building projects (Changing Room, Greenhouse). Modeling results were used to determine feasible geothermal system typologies. The previous study linked below ("Village of Solomon Development of Energy Efficiency Building Standards for New Construction") feeds in to this project. The dataset includes DWG drawings and AKwarm energy models (.hm2) of a subset of existing buildings at the site of Pilgrim Hot Springs. All buildings were modeled in their current state, and some were additionally modeled with improvements to the building envelope. Energy modeling results exported from AKwarm include .htm and .png images.
AKwarm↗
Revisiting dark energy models using differential ages of galaxies
In this work, we use a test based on the differential ages of galaxies for distinguishing the dark energy models. As proposed by Jimenez and Loeb in [1], relative ages of galaxies can be used to put constraints on various cosmological parameters. In the same vein, we reconstruct H {sub 0} {sub dt} / dz and its derivative ( H {sub 0} {sub d} {sup 2} {sup t} / dz {sup 2}) using a model independent technique called non-parametric smoothing . Basically, dt / dz is the change in the age of the object as a function of redshift which is directly linked with the Hubble parameter. Hence for reconstruction of this quantity, we use the most recent H ( z ) data. Further, we calculate H {sub 0} {sub dt} / dz and its derivative for several models like Phantom, Einstein de Sitter (EdS), ΛCDM, Chevallier-Polarski-Linder (CPL) parametrization, Jassal-Bagla-Padmanabhan (JBP) parametrization and Feng-Shen-Li-Li (FSLL) parametrization. We check the consistency of these models with the results of reconstruction obtained in a model independent way from the data. It is observed that H {sub 0} {sub dt} / dz as a tool is not able to distinguish between the ΛCDM, CPL, JBP and FSLL parametrizations but, as expected, EdS and Phantom models show noticeable deviation from the reconstructed results. Further, the derivative of H {sub 0} {sub dt} / dz for various dark energy models is more sensitive at low redshift. It is found that the FSLL model is not consistent with the reconstructed results, however, the ΛCDM model is in concordance with the 3σ region of the reconstruction at redshift z ≥ 0.3.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Revisit of the interacting holographic dark energy model after Planck 2015
We investigate the observational constraints on the interacting holographic dark energy model. We consider five typical interacting models with the interaction terms Q = 3β H ρ{sub de}, Q = 3β H ρ{sub c}, Q = 3β H (ρ{sub de}+ρ{sub c}), Q = 3β H √ρ{sub de}ρ{sub c}, and Q = 3β H ρ{sub de}ρ {sub c} /ρ{sub de}+ρ{sub c}, respectively, where β is a dimensionless coupling constant. The observational data we use in this paper include the JLA compilation of type Ia supernovae data, the Planck 2015 distance priors data of cosmic microwave background observation, the baryon acoustic oscillations measurements, and the Hubble constant direct measurement. We make a comparison for these five interacting holographic dark energy models by employing the information criteria, and we find that, within the framework of holographic dark energy, the Q = 3β H ρ{sub de}ρ{sub c}/ρ{sub de}+ρ{sub c} model is most favored by current data, and the Q = 3β H ρ{sub c} model is relatively not favored by current data. For the Q = 3β H ρ{sub de} and Q = 3β H ρ{sub de}ρ{sub c}/ρ{sub de}+ρ{sub c} models, a positive coupling β can be detected at more than 2σ significance.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Computing Nonlinear Power Spectra Across Dynamical Dark Energy Model Space with Neural ODEs
I show how to compute the nonlinear power spectrum across the entire $w(z)$ dynamical dark energy model space. Using synthetic ΛCDM data, I train a neural ordinary differential equation (ODE) to infer the evolution of the nonlinear matter power spectrum as a function of the background expansion and mean matter density across ∼9 Gyr of cosmic evolution. After training, the model generalises to any dynamical dark energy model parameterised by $w(z)$. With little optimisation, the neural ODE is accurate to within 4% up to $k = 5\, h\, {\mathrm Mpc}^{−1}$. Unlike simulation rescaling methods, neural ODEs naturally extend to summary statistics beyond the power spectrum that are sensitive to the growth history.
cosmology↗
A Data-Driven Approach to Nation-Scale Building Energy Modeling
In 2019, 125 million U.S. residential and commercial buildings consumed $412 billion in energy bills. These buildings currently consume 40% of the nation's primary energy, 73% of electricity, 80% of energy during peak electric grid use, and responsible for 39% of greenhouse gas emissions [14]. Urban-scale building energy modeling has grown significantly in the past decade, allowing individual campuses or communities of buildings to be modeled, simulated, and cost-effective solutions for intelligent management to be identified and implemented. While traditionally limited to individual counties and usually less than 2,000 buildings, the Automatic Building Energy Modeling (AutoBEM) soft-ware suite has been developed to process unconventional, nation-scale data sources to generate unique OpenStudio and EnergyPlus models of each building. Through the use of High Performance Computing (HPC) resources, every U.S. building has been simulated. This paper showcases the data layout, node partitioning, algorithmic approaches, and analytic results that were used to create, share, and analyze 124.4 million U.S. building models.
Berres, Andy↗
Comparing projections of industrial energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions in long-term energy models
The industry sector consumes more energy and emits more greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions than any other end-use sector. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) and energy system models have been widely used to evaluate climate policy at a global level, and include a representation of industrial energy use. In this study, the projected industrial energy use and accompanying GHG emissions, as well as the model structure of multiple long-term energy models are compared. The models show varying degrees to which energy consumption is decoupled from GDP growth in the future. In all models, the sector remains mostly (>50%) reliant on fossil energy through 2100 in a reference scenario (i.e., absent emissions mitigation policies), though there is significant divergence in the projected ability to switch to alternative fuels to mitigate GHG emissions. Among the set analyzed here, the more technologically detailed models tend to have less capacity for switching from fossil fuels to electricity. This highlights the importance of understanding of economy-wide mitigation responses and costs as an area for future improvement. Analyzing industry subsector material and energy use details can improve the ability to interpret results, and provide insight in feasibility of how emissions reduction can be achieved.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Community Geothermal: Soil Conductivity, Borehole Design, Energy Models, and Load Data for a Residential System Development - Hinesburg, VT
This dataset contains materials from the Coalition for Community-Supported Affordable Geothermal Energy Systems (C2SAGES) project, which evaluated the techno-economic feasibility of a community geothermal system for a residential development in Hinesburg, VT. The dataset includes detailed soil conductivity test reports, energy models, borehole design reports, hourly energy loads for heating, cooling, and hot water, and design layouts. EnergyPlus was used to model building energy loads, and Modelica software was applied for geothermal loop sizing based on these loads and soil conductivity results. Python scripts for network design further refined the models. Key files include PDF reports on borehole design (with projections for 1-year, 15-year, and 30-year systems), soil conductivity test results, EnergyPlus modeling outputs, and 2D/3D design drawings in PDF, DWG, and DXF formats. Python notebooks for network design and OnePipe model files are also provided, with Modelica required for viewing certain files. Outputs and modeling data are in various formats including CSV, JPG, HTML, and IDF, with units and data clearly labeled to support understanding of system design and performance for the proposed geothermal solution.
15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
Predicting the performance of radiant technologies in attics: Reducing the discrepancies between attic specific and whole-building energy models
The use of radiant technology in attics aims to reduce the radiation component of heat transfer between the attic floor and roof decks, gables, and eaves. Recently, it has been shown that EnergyPlus underestimates the savings using radiant technologies in attic spaces. The aim of this study is to understand why EnergyPlus underestimates the performance of radiant technologies and provide a solution strategy that works within the current capabilities of EnergyPlus. The analysis uses three attic energy models as a baseline for comparison for EnergyPlus. Potential reasons for the discrepancies between the attic specific energy models and EnergyPlus are isolated and individually tested. A solution strategy is proposed using the Energy Management System (EMS) capabilities within EnergyPlus. This solution strategy produces similar results to the other attic specific energy models. This paper shows that the current capabilities of EnergyPlus are sufficient to simulate radiant technologies in attics. The methodology showcased in this paper serves as a guide for engineers and researchers who would like to predict the performance radiant technology in attics using the whole building energy software, EnergyPlus.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
3D Reality Energy Modeling Software
The team will combine Bentley Systems’ ContextCapture and extend Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s building energy modeling capabilities in order to create digital twins of buildings that allow simulation-informed improvement for energy efficiency and demand response in the design and operation of the built environment. Bentley Systems’ ContextCapture software processes data from 3D laser scanning and photographs (through photogrammetry) to create a photorealistic, 3D mesh with a scale of individual objects to building to city-sized. This capability easily provides city-level visualization models and platforms where sustainable design alternatives are readily evaluated. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) serves the U.S. Dept. of Energy (DOE) as one of three core laboratories developing building energy modeling tools EnergyPlus and OpenStudio. ORNL’s AutoBEM software (bit.ly/AutoBEM) can process imagery (satellite, aerial, and street level), LiDAR, cartographic layers, tax assessor’s data, and other data sources to extract building footprints, height, window-to-wall ratio, building type, vintage, and other building properties. AutoBEM has created 178,368 building energy models that were empirically validated with 15-minute whole-building electrical data from a utility.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Bifacial PV Module Energy Modeling Validation Study
The cost delta between monofacial and bifacial photovoltaic (PV) modules was decreasing in 2018 when this study was initially proposed, making bifacial modules an attractive offering. However, there were limited field studies available that could be considered utility-scale representative, and PV module manufacturers were stating large ranges for the expected energy yield improvements of bifacial technology. This generated uncertainties regarding bifacial performance gains and the actual LCOE (levelized cost of energy). There was also relatively low confidence in the industry’s energy modeling tools’ ability to accurately predict bifacial energy yield, meaning that early adopters of bifacial modules were not able to fully account for the increased energy yield in their energy and financial models. The intent of this project was to provide the solar industry with greater certainty on the energy yield gains of bifacial modules and provide higher confidence in the ability for different energy modeling software to model bifacial PV site performance. Achieving this would allow for bifacial technology to become bankable (i.e. accepted by Independent Engineers, site financiers and other PV site stakeholders), offering a step change in PV site performance that had not been seen since the widespread adoption of the single-axis tracker. Over the course of this study other economic factors including a significant tariff exemption for bifacial modules resulted in accelerated adoption of bifacial technology throughout the US utility scale solar segment. The number of early adopters increased rapidly, and with many investors accepting this module choice the question of bifacial bankability was seemingly answered faster than expected. However, PVEL’s study has still achieved significant accomplishments in demonstrating the accuracy of bifacial modeling across three different software platforms. The results of this study have shown that the mean biased error (MBE) between the field data and the predicted values from all three software platforms were aligned with a maximum MBE of 1.3% and a minimum MBE of -1.8%.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Valuing Nuclear in Long-Term Energy Models
Presentation on valuing nuclear energy in long-term planning models.
capacity expansion↗
Big Data Mining for Assessing Calibration of Building Energy Models
Residential and commercial buildings in China, India, the United States (US), United Kingdom (UK), and Italy consume 39-45% of each nation's primary energy. Building energy models can be used to automatically optimize the return-on-investment for retrofits to improve a building’s energy efficiency. However, with an average of 3,000 building descriptors necessary to accurately simulate a single building, there is a market need to reduce the transaction cost for creating a more robust model for simulating every building in a city and accurately estimate savings prior to capital expenditures.We used two of the world’s fastest supercomputers, assembled unique datasets, and developed innovative algorithms for big data mining to assess different methods to create an accurate building energy model. The team has leveraged a total of eight high performance computing resources and 218 servers to analyze the best methods, metrics, and algorithms for creating an accurate building energy model beyond current industry standards necessary for private-sector financing. The project developed the world’s fastest buildings simulator, has completed over 8 million simulations totaling over 300TB, and mined this data with over 130,000 parallel artificial intelligence algorithms. This was used to quantify accuracy of AI-developed calibration algorithms with results that surpass industry standard guidelines and can identify individual building parameters to between 15% and 32% of their actual value.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Bias Correction in Urban Building Energy Modeling for Chicago Using Machine Learning
Urban-scale building energy modeling (UBEM) holds promise for optimizing energy usage across extensive geographic regions. However, there is a recognized bias between simulated energy consumption and actual measured data. This study, based on building data from Chicago, delved into bias correction techniques for enhancing the accuracy of UBEM energy consumption estimates. Initially, the AutoBEM simulation yielded a normalized mean bias error (NMBE) of 1.1% and 51% of Coefficient of the Variation of the Root Mean Square Error (CVRMSE) after outlier exclusion. To address this, three bias correction methods were deployed: Average Mean Bias Error based bias correction, Quantile mapping bias correction, and Machine learning-based bias correction using Linear Regression and Random Forest models. Post-correction results exhibited marked improvement. The NMBE values were diminished to 0 for Average MBE-based, 0.36 for Quantile Mapping, and 0 for Machine Learning-based corrections. Concurrently, the CVRMSE values registered reductions from an original 51 to 50.8 for Quantile Mapping, and 38.56 for Machine Learning-based corrections, pointing towards the effectiveness of specific bias correction methods in refining the precision of UBEM energy predictions. Such accurate estimations are paramount for informed energy planning and urban policy-making.
Chowdhury, Shovan↗
Urban-scale Energy Modeling: Scaling Beyond Tax Assessor Data
In an attempt to attain building-specific characteristics for urban-scale building energy models, county-specific tax assessors’ data is often an initial data source. This data source can contain valuable information such as year built, area, height, HVAC type, and roof/wall descriptions.We will show examples of 2,000 fields from Hamilton County in Tennessee with examples of many fields which are not relevant to urban-scale building energy modeling, are incorrect compared to other data sources, and highlight some lessons learned working with such a data source.There are currently 3,142 counties in the United States, each with their own data format, field definitions, and data access policy. As urban-scale involves city-scale analysis potentially covering multiple counties and matures toward state- or nation-scale analysis, county-by-county approaches are not scalable. While there are efforts to unify these datasets, there is an increasing proliferation of data and algorithms that can cover wider areas and provide more accurate inputs for urban-scale models. This paper summarizes computer vision of imagery, cartographic layers, building type assessment, and model generation used to achieve scalable detection and analysis of buildings.
New, Joshua↗