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DOE OSTI2020

Fluid-driven fractures in granular media: Insights from numerical investigations

We investigate the mechanisms of opening-mode fracture initiation in granular media. The study is based on a simulation of grain-scale fluid-grain interactions through a coupled numerical approach in which the discrete element method is used to solve for the mechanics of a solid granular medium, and computational fluid dynamics is used to model fluid flow and drag forces. In this work, we present benchmark problems with analytical solutions and validate this numerical model against experiments on a viscous-drag-driven cavity in the literature. Additional simulation results show fracture initiation mechanisms in a random granular packing subjected to constant boundary stresses and to fluid injection with a localized source. The dimensionless variable $F_s/F_{sk}$ (ratio of seepage force $F_s$ and skeletal force $F_{sk}$) incorporates the impacts of physical properties and injection parameters including fluid viscosity, injection velocity, grain size, and effective stresses, and it has been used as a criterion separating regimes of fluid invasion and drag-driven fracture opening. Our simulation results show that $F_s/F_{sk}$ in combination with $τ_1$ (ratio of diffusion time from hydromechanical coupling and injection time) serves as a prediction of fracture opening within granular packing. We suggest a simple criterion ($F_s/F_{sk}$ > 1 or $τ_1$ > 0.17) that is valid for various types of granular media and injection conditions to determine if fracture opening will occur. Among other applications, this study is useful to predict the initiation and propagation of fractures in natural sediments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Exact solution of burst pressure for thick-walled pipes using the flow theory of plasticity

This paper develops an exact solution of burst pressure for defect-free, thick-walled pipes using the flow theory of plasticity in terms of the average shear stress yield criterion (or Zhu-Leis yield criterion). The pipe steel is assumed to obey the power-law strain hardening rule, and large plastic deformation is described by the finite strain theory. On this basis, internal pressure is obtained as a power series function of the effective strains on the inside and outside surfaces of the thick-walled pipe with use of the second Bernoulli numbers. At burst failure, the Zhu-Leis flow solution of burst pressure is determined as a power series solution, and the burst effective strains, the burst effective stresses, and the burst pressure are functions of the diameter ratio (D o / D i ), strain hardening exponent (n), and ultimate tensile strength (UTS). Similarly, the Tresca and von Mises flow solutions of burst pressure are also determined as a power series solution in terms of the Tresca and von Mises yield criteria. A general closed-from exact solution of burst pressure is then proposed for the three yield criteria, and the results showed that the proposed exact solution matches well with the power series solution for each yield criterion. Moreover, the von Mises flow solution is an upper bound prediction, the Tresca flow solution is a lower bound prediction, and the Zhu-Leis flow solution is an intermediate prediction that agrees well with the finite element analysis results of burst pressure for thick-walled pipes. Furthermore, two datasets of full-scale burst tests are then utilized to evaluate and validate the proposed flow solutions of burst pressure for both thin and thick-walled pipes.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Deformation behavior of CP-titanium under strain path changes: Experiment and crystal plasticity modeling

The deformation behavior of commercially pure rolled titanium subjected to strain path changes is studied using experiments and a crystal plasticity model. Four different loading combinations are performed at room temperature to study the activation of slip, twinning, de-twinning and double-twinning in hexagonal closed packed titanium. The strain paths considered are: rolling direction compression (RDC) followed by normal direction compression (NDC), RDC followed by transverse direction compression (TDC), NDC followed by RDC, and NDC followed by TDC. An EBSD-based analysis of the distribution of boundary misorientation angles before and after reload was developed to analyze the evolution of {$10\bar{1}2$} tensile and {$11\bar{2}2$} compression twins. This analysis supports the model results concerning the treatment of twin reorientation. A de-twinning and double-twinning model accounting for back stress effects, an important feature of strain path changes, is implemented within the framework of the visco-plastic self-consistent (VPSC) model along with a dislocation density (DD) based hardening scheme. In the model, plasticity is accommodated by prismatic $\langle$a$\rangle$, basal $\langle$a$\rangle$ and pyramidal $\langle$c+a$\rangle$ slip modes, and {$10\bar{1}2$} tensile and {$11\bar{2}2$} compression twinning modes. The VPSC model predicts the evolution of twinning, de-twinning and double-twinning processes for both tensile and compression twinning modes under strain path change. The model predicts macroscopic stress-strain response, texture evolution, and twin volume fraction that are in agreement with experimental observations. The evolution of texture is investigated in detail by separately analyzing the twinned domains, rather than the evolution of the global texture.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Understanding the optoelectronic properties of doped 2D organic-inorganic halide perovskite quantum wells: towards efficient quantum well IR photodetectors

Metal halide perovskite (MHP) multiple quantum wells which consist of multilayers of alternate organic and inorganic layers exhibit large exciton binding energies due to the dielectric confinement between the inorganic and organic layers. These naturally formed multiple quantum wells have strong spin-orbit coupling (SOC) due to the presence of heavy elements in their crystal structures. Although the fundamental properties of 2D MHPs are far from being entirely understood, it is widely accepted that their band edge absorption coefficient results from strong exciton interactions. However, studies demonstrating how different exciton interactions and doping effects influence electronic traps and disorder on the band edge absorption coefficient of 2D MHPs have not been demonstrated. Understanding these interactions in MHPs will allow us to access low energy optical transitions for the fabrication of solution processable short-to-mid-wavelength IR photodetectors (1 – 8 μm). Moreover, upon doping, it is possible to move the Fermi energy into the conduction band (CB) to favorably promote the transport of charges in a working device. Herein, we study the development of 2D MHPs having strong SOC, high carrier mobility, and tunable quantum well structures. Our studies shed light on the design and modulation of fundamental physical phenomena by carefully elucidating the role of dopants (n-type and p-type), exciton heterogeneity, orientation, structure, and bias stress effects on the performance of MHPs as potential IR photodetectors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Core-flood Effluent and Shale Surface Chemistries in Predicting Interaction between Shale, Brine, and Reactive Fluid

We report field and laboratory observations to date indicate that the efficiency of hydraulic fracturing, as it relates to hydrocarbon recovery, depends significantly on geochemical alterations to rock surfaces that diminish accessibility by partial or total plugging of the pore and fracture networks. This is caused by mineral scale deposition such as coating of fracture surfaces with precipitates, particle migration, and/or crack closure due to dissolution under stress. In reactive flow-through experiments, mineral reactions in response to acidic fluid injection significantly reduced system porosity and core permeability. The present study focuses on changes to fluid chemistry and shale surfaces (inlet and fracture walls) resulting from shale-fluid interactions and integrating these findings for an improved estimate of transport-related consequences. The reacted shale surfaces were examined by spatially-resolved scanning electron microscopy - energy dispersive spectroscopy (SEM-EDS) analysis. Importantly, inductively coupled plasma - mass spectrometry/optical emission spectroscopy (ICP-MS/OES) was utilized to probe the chemical evolution of the core-flood effluents. The three study cores selected from the Marcellus formation represent different mineralogies and structural features. In flow-through experiments, lab-generated brine and HCl-based fracture fluid (pH=2) were injected sequentially under effective stress (up to 500 psi) at reservoir temperature (80°C). SEM-EDS results confirmed by the ICP concentration trends showed significant Fe hydroxide precipitates in clay- and pyrite-rich outcrop samples due to partial oxidation of Fe-bearing phases in the case of intrusion of low salinity water-based fluids. Porosity reduction in the MSEEL (Marcellus Shale Energy and Environmental Laboratory) carbonate-rich sample is related to compaction of cores under stress due to matrix softening with substantial dissolution, and pore-filling by hydroxides, as well as barite and salts. Despite the same fluid compositions and experimental conditions used for both MSEEL samples, barite precipitation was much more intense in the MSEEL clay-rich sample due to its greater sorption capacity and additional sulfate source as well as fissile nature with multiple lengthwise cracks. ICP tests revealed time-resolved concentration trends in produced brine and reactive fluids that in turn complemented the pre-/post-reaction SEM-EDS observations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Maximized Hole Trapping in a Polystyrene Transistor Dielectric from a Highly Branched Iminobis(aminoarene) Side Chain

We synthesized highly branched and electron donating side chain subunits and attached them to polystyrene (PS) used as a dielectric layer in a pentacene field effect transistor. The influence of these groups on dielectric function, charge retention and threshold voltage shifts (ΔV th ) depending on their positions in dielectric multilayers was determined. We compared the observations made on an N-perphenylated iminobisaniline side chain with those from the same side chains modified with ZnO nanoparticles and with an adduct formed from tetracyanoethylene (TCNE). We also synthesized an analogue in which six methoxy groups are present instead of two amine nitrogens. At 6 mol % side chain, hopping transport was sufficient to cause shorting of the gate, while at 2 mol %, charge trapping was observable as transistor threshold voltage shifts (ΔV th ). Here, we created three types of devices: with the substituted PS layer as single layer dielectric, on top of a crosslinked PS layer but in contact with the pentacene (bilayers), and sandwiched between two PS layers in trilayers. Particularly large bias stress effects and ΔV th , larger than the hexamethoxy and previously studied dimethoxy analogs, were observed in the second case and the effects increased with the increasing electron donating properties of the modified side chains. The highest ΔV th was consistent with a majority of the side chains stabilizing trapped charge. Trilayer devices showed decreased charge storage capability compared to previous work in which we used less donating side chains but in higher concentrations. The ZnO and TCNE modifications resulted in slightly more and less negative ΔV th , respectively, when the side chain polystyrene was not in contact with the pentacene and isolated from the gate electrode. The results indicate a likely maximum combination of molecular charge stabilizing activity and side chain concentration that still allows gate dielectric function.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Relationship between microstructure evolution and properties enhancement of carbon nanotubes‐filled polybutylene terephthalate/polypropylene blends induced by thermal annealing

Abstract Thermal annealing induced microstructure evolution and properties enhancement of polybutylene terephthalate/polypropylene/carbon nanotubes (PBT/PP/CNTs) nanocomposites was methodically investigated. The electrical conductive PBT/PP/CNTs nanocomposites with a low percolation threshold were obtained by simple melt blending due to the selective location of the CNTs in PBT phase and the formation of the double percolation structure. Thermal annealing further remarkably decreased the volume resistivity of the nanocomposites, with the maximum reduction of seven orders of magnitude. Scanning electron microscope observation and rheology tests demonstrated that the relatively large CNTs agglomerates were redistributed to build more homogeneous CNTs networks after annealing. The phase coalescence during annealing promoted the formation of the more perfect co‐continuous structure. These phenomena helped to enhance the electrical conductivity of the nanocomposites. Flexural properties of the nanocomposites were also enhanced after annealing, which might be due to the more effective stress transfer between the polymer and CNTs induced by the reconstructed CNTs networks. The nanocomposites obtained in this study possess excellent electrical and mechanical properties, which can be applied to the fields of sensors, electromagnetic interference shielding, anti‐static materials, and so forth.

Shang, Mengyao↗

DOE OSTI2023

3D Carbon Coating Enabled High‐capacity and Stable Micro‐sized Silicon Suboxide‐graphite Blended Anodes for Practical Lithium‐ion Batteries

Abstract Silicon oxide (SiO x ) is a promising anode candidate of lithium‐ion batteries (LIBs) owing to its extremely high specific capacity. However, the low initial Coulombic efficiency (ICE) and rapid capacity degradation of SiO x , triggered by the enormous volume variation upon repeated (de)lithiation, gravely hinder its practical use. Herein, two mass‐produced micro‐sized SiO x @C composites with obviously different morphologies for commercial LIBs are reported. Particularly, the SiO x ‐graphite blended anode (SiO x @3D‐G‐Gr) based on SiO x wrapped by three‐dimensional (3D) carbon layers (SiO x @3D‐G) exhibits a capacity of 519 mAh g −1 , an ICE of 90.0 % and a capacity retention of 83.4 % at 0.2 C over 100 cycles. which is far exceeding its counterpart SiO x @C‐H‐Gr (65.7 %). The obtained impressive properties of SiO x @3D‐G originate from the critical contribution of 3D carbon layers, which serves as the effective stress buffer and protective layer as well as the strong networks for electron/Li + transport. Accordingly, the full‐cell based on SiO x @3D‐G‐Gr anode and commercial LiCoO 2 cathode delivers a capacity of 803 mAh and an excellent capacity retention of 95.6 % (616 mAh, 96.6 % for graphite, respectively) at 1 C over 100 cycles with a stabilized CE of nearly 100 %. The micro‐sized SiO x @3D‐G showing a promising prospect in the commercial‐grade anodes in LIBs.

Electrochemistry↗

DOE OSTI2026

Thermo-hydro-mechanical analysis of subsurface ice-based thermal energy storage

Ice-based thermal energy storage systems are widely utilized for cooling and managing peak electrical demand globally, offering daily or weekly storage capabilities for both individual homes and larger office buildings. However, scaling these systems for district-level cooling or integrating them with renewable energy sources presents challenges, especially in accommodating larger volumes and addressing seasonal storage requirements in densely populated urban areas. This paper proposes a novel solution by evaluating subsurface ice-based thermal energy storage, in which the underground is subjected to seasonal freeze/thaw cycles. However, these cycles may influence ground behavior, affecting pore pressure and inducing ground movement. To systematically investigate these challenges, we enhance the TOUGH-FLAC simulator by integrating water/ice phase change capabilities and updating the effective stress–strain constitutive relation. Both modifications are validated against analytical solutions or experimental data. Through numerical simulations spanning a decade with ten seasonal freeze/thaw cycles, we evaluate the performance and long-term stability of a generic subsurface ice-based thermal energy storage system, considering factors such as ground permeability, freezing pipe spacing, freeze/thaw damage, and glycol solution temperature. The simulations indicate that ice formation induces pore pressure variations that drive seasonal surface heave and settlement, controlled by ground permeability, pipe spacing, and glycol solution temperature, along with tensile and localized shear deformation around freeze pipes. This highlights the need for accurate ground property characterization and geomechanical analysis for subsurface ice-based thermal energy storage.

Ground freezing↗

DOE OSTI2025

Development of Predictive Model for Accurate Rupture Time from Multi-Axial Creep in Alloy 709 with Physics-Based Simulations

A physics-based model is developed to predict multiaxial creep behavior in Alloy 709 (A709), an advanced austenitic stainless steel intended for high-temperature applications such as Sodium Fast Reactors (SFRs). Compared to conventional stainless steels like 316H, A709 offers superior high-temperature performance; however, comprehensive data on its multiaxial creep response remain limited. To address this gap, a crystal plasticity finite element (CPFE) framework is used to simulate the deformation and failure mechanisms of A709 under multiaxial loading conditions. The model incorporates an extended Hu-Cocks dislocation creep formulation that accounts for precipitation effects, along with the Sham–Needleman model to capture grain boundary cavitation-driven failure. These advanced constitutive models enable a detailed understanding of the interplay between microstructural evolution and macroscopic creep response. Furthermore, the study evaluates the predictive accuracy of various effective stress measures in estimating creep rupture life, leveraging simulated multiaxial creep data. The findings provide critical insights into the applicability of different stress measures for engineering design and life prediction of A709 components operating under complex loading conditions. This work contributes to improving the reliability of high-temperature structural components by advancing predictive modeling capabilities for advanced austenitic steels.

Alloy 709↗

DOE OSTI2022

Long-term permeability evolution of shale seal rocks with argon and scCO 2

In this work, we conducted a suite of experiments to evaluate the long-term permeability evolution of shale rocks under constant effective stress, before, during, and after interaction with supercritical carbon dioxide (scCO 2 ). To do so, we measured the time-dependent evolution of argon permeabilities for the pre- and post-reacted samples (i.e., before and after long-term interaction with scCO 2 ). In addition, we obtained permeability evolution during long-term interaction with scCO 2 . The samples showed either relatively constant permeabilities or a moderate decrease during pre reaction long-term argon tests. The permeability evolution during long-term CO 2 tests showed continuous increase, continuous decrease, or cycles of increase/decrease in permeability. The long term response of the samples to CO 2 included phenomena such as 20 (i) salt precipitation, (ii) swelling-induced cracks, and (iii) carbonate dissolution. While it is obvious that salt precipitation and swelling-induced cracks decrease and increase the permeability, respectively, the sample response to carbonate dissolution proved to be more complex and may increase or decrease the permeability. The permeability evolution during post-reaction long-term argon injection is also affected by the contribution of each of these three phenomena, during long-term interaction with CO 2 . We observe increase, decrease, and constant permeability evolution during post-reaction argon tests. Our experiments reveal that the initial permeability of the samples plays a significant role on the long-term permeability response of shales in the presence argon and scCO 2 fluids. This study shows, when shales are hydraulically fractured with CO 2 , their initial permeability has a more significant role than their permeability evolution over time.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Complex Dependence of Calcite Crack Kinetics on Salinity: The Role of DLVO and Hydration Forces

Abstract Subcritical crack growth (SCG) plays an important role in many geological processes such as delayed earth rupture and rock weathering. The complex dependency of SCG on the in‐crack fluid chemistry, however, is still poorly understood. In this study, we utilize the newly developed surface force‐based fracture theory (SFFT) to elucidate the relative contributions of surface forces and solute transport to the crack growth kinetics of calcite in NaCl solutions. Expanding on Barenblatt's cohesive crack model, SFFT introduces an effective stress intensity at the crack tip that encompasses all the relevant intermolecular forces across the crack in addition to the external far‐field stresses. The nonlinear system of equations portraying the crack opening profile, the solute distribution in a propagating crack, and the crack growth velocity are numerically solved via an implicit scheme. After carefully calibrating the model for calcite‐water systems, the SFFT is used to predict the SCG response of calcite at different NaCl concentrations, based on various hypotheses. These predictions are then compared to existing SCG data from the literature. We demonstrate that the experimentally observed variation of SCG rate with NaCl concentration cannot be explained solely by DLVO forces (electrostatic and Van der Waals interactions). This can be remediated by introducing an exponentially decaying hydration force with a nonlinear, nonmonotonic dependence on NaCl concentration. Furthermore, we demonstrate that accounting for both diffusive and advective transport of ions is important in explaining the absence of a stage‐II SCG response for calcite in electrolyte solutions. Plain Language Summary Subcritical crack growth (SCG) refers to the slow propagation of cracks in materials under a stress below the threshold for catastrophic failure. SCG is a key process in many geological events, for example, delayed earth ruptures and rock weathering. New initiatives such as underground CO 2 and H 2 storage in carbonate reservoirs further call for better understanding of SCG in carbonate minerals subjected to varying fluid chemistry. This study examines the SCG of calcite, a key mineral found in carbonate rocks, intergranular cement in sandstones, and filling material in mineral veins and faults, determining their deformation and strength. A mathematical model is developed to describe how the crack opens and propagates, how solutes (like salts) distribute within the crack, and how the crack surfaces interact with each other. We used the model to predict calcite SCG in water at different salt concentrations and compared it with experimental data. Our results revealed that the hydration force is the dominating factor in determining the complex, non‐linear dependency of SCG on salinity. We also found that both the movement of ions by diffusion and by bulk water flow are crucial for explaining the SCG rates, especially when the cracks grow quickly. Key Points Surface Force‐Based Fracture Theory predicts the complex subcritical crack growth patterns of calcite crystals immersed in NaCl solutions Results highlight the dominant role of hydration forces in altering the fracture behavior of calcite compared to VdW and electric double‐layer forces Advective solute transport explains the absence of stages‐II and ‐III subcritical crack growth responses in solid‐liquid systems

DLVO↗

DOE OSTI2024

Covalent adaptable polymer networks with CO 2 -facilitated recyclability

Cross-linked polymers with covalent adaptable networks (CANs) can be reprocessed under external stimuli owing to the exchangeability of dynamic covalent bonds. Optimization of reprocessing conditions is critical since increasing the reprocessing temperature costs more energy and even deteriorates the materials, while reducing the reprocessing temperature via molecular design usually narrows the service temperature range. Exploiting CO 2 gas as an external trigger for lowering the reprocessing barrier shows great promise in low sample contamination and environmental friendliness. Herein, we develop a type of CANs incorporated with ionic clusters that achieve CO 2 -facilitated recyclability without sacrificing performance. The presence of CO 2 can facilitate the rearrangement of ionic clusters, thus promoting the exchange of dynamic bonds. The effective stress relaxation and network rearrangement enable the system with rapid recycling under CO 2 while retaining excellent mechanical performance in working conditions. This work opens avenues to design recyclable polymer materials with tunable dynamics and responsive recyclability.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Residual Stress Limits Gridline Bridging in Cracked Solar Cells

Cracks in solar cells can be generated in various ways, but this does not mean immediate power loss. Previous studies showed that gridlines bridge cracked silicon cells, and the bridging behavior decreases during the contact and separation of gridlines within bare cells. In this study, we investigate bridging behavior in laminated monocrystalline cells. We characterize the behavior with Weibull analysis of critical crack opening distance (COD), at which the gridline is completely separated. The Weibull analysis of the laminated cell shows a good agreement with bare cells at the first cycle. However, we observe different behavior during cyclic bending. Bare cells show gradual decay of critical COD, while laminated cells show instant decay and plateau. We hypothesize that the difference is due to residual stress, squeezing gridlines, and causing plastic deformation. This is justified by the correlation between critical COD and gridline morphology. In the presentation, we shall present a Weibull analysis of the cyclic bending of a laminated cell with a reduced residual stress effect.

bending↗

DOE OSTI2023

WHOLESCALE: Coordinates of wells at San Emidio, Nevada

This dataset includes position coordinates and elevation information for wells at the WHOLESCALE San Emidio project location. Well positions in the attached file are characterized by UTM coordinates (Easting, Northing) in meters, and WHOLESCALE coordinates (Easting, Northing) relative in meters from a chosen reference point. The elevation of the top and bottom of open intervals within each well (representing locations of perforated or open-hole sections) are measured in meters (positive) above WGS84 geoid (mean sea level). The WHOLESCALE acronym stands for Water & Hole Observations Leverage Effective Stress Calculations and Lessen Expenses. The goal of the WHOLESCALE project is to simulate the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of stress in the geothermal system at San Emidio in Nevada, United States.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

WHOLESCALE: Microseismic Event Catalog for San Emidio, Nevada 2022

This submission includes a high-precision seismic event catalog estimated from seismic data collected at San Emidio, Nevada from April to May 2022. The catalog lists the precise time, location, and magnitude of microseismic events recorded during this period. Both the seismic data and microseismic event catalog were produced as part of the Water & Hole Observations Leverage Effective Stress Calculations and Lessen Expenses (WHOLESCALE) project. Attached here are the microseismic event catalog, a link to the raw seismic data, and a detailed description of methods used to create the catalog.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Micro-CT Imaging and Fluid Flow Simulations of Fractures in MSEEL Shale

micro-CT scans of a naturally fractured MSEEL shale sample as a shear fracture is generated and displaced in the center, intact region of the sample. Steady State laminar fluid flow simulations were then performed on each individual fracture during each experimental segment as effective stress and shear displacement changed. Released under LA-UR-21-24335.

Fractures,Fracturing Initiation,Marcellus Shale↗

DOE OSTI2020

Beirut Explosion Yield and Mushroom Cloud Height - Effects of the Source Environment

I use crater dimensions to estimate the yield of the August 4th, 2020 Beirut explosion to be equivalent to approximately 1.4 kilotons of TNT with a lower bound of about 0.7 kilotons. Based on the amount of ammonium nitrate reported to have been stored at the Beirut harbor, I assume an upper bound for the yield of 2.75 kilotons. However, it is highly likely that the yield was less than 2.75 kilotons, since reported values for TNT equivalence of ammonium nitrate are typically much less than one hundred percent. The crater-size based yield estimates are based on crater radius estimates from satellite imagery and empirical curves and data for scaled crater radius from past chemical and nuclear explosions. I present evidence that suggests that the relatively large crater radius is due to a high degree of coupling of shock wave energy to the surrounding medium and a reduction of the effective stress because of a high level of saturation of the geologic media beneath the explosion. I provide yield estimates based on seismic body-wave magnitude and crater depth as corroborating evidence. I compare preliminary estimates for the maximum debris cloud height, based on cell phone videos/images, with predicted maximum heights for this yield range from empirical formulas and numerical cloud-rise models. Based on a preliminary analysis of cell phone footage, the observed maximum cloud height appears to be approximately 1600 m. This is much lower than that predicted using standard empirical formulas and buoyant cloud rise models. I present results from a modified buoyant cloud rise model that more accurately predicts the maximum cloud height by allowing for the inclusion of a fixed amount of air and/or water into the fireball at the start of cloud rise. The amount of mass that needs to be added at the start, to reproduce the observed maximum cloud height, is relatively small compared to the total mass entrained during cloud rise. A much greater amount of dry air or debris is required, relative to water, for an equivalent reduction in maximum cloud height. The ammonium nitrate is one possible source for water in the fireball since it was being stored in a very humid environment and ammonium nitrate is known to be hygroscopic. The ground beneath the explosion, especially if it were saturated, and the nearby harbor could also have been sources for water or debris in the fireball.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗