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At least 91 records · Page 5

Global models predict clouds at the wrong time of day: Does it matter for radiation and climate?

Accurate prediction of future climate change hinges upon the ability of Earth system models (ESMs) to simulate clouds and their radiative effects. Even if an ESM can simulate the correct clouds, a systematic error in the amount of sunlight reflected by clouds (and, thus, cloud radiative effect) can exist if the clouds are simulated at the incorrect time of day. In this work, we develop an analytical model connecting diurnal cloud biases to emergent mean state radiative biases. With the use of satellite observations, we demonstrate that there are errors in the time of day that clouds are occurring in ESMs that would cause bias in shortwave cloud radiative effect (SWCRE) that is greater than 45% of the total SWCRE bias, but such errors in the cloud diurnal cycle are masked by other compensating errors, indicating that these ESMs are getting the right answer for the wrong reasons.

Geosciences↗

West African Monsoon System’s Responses to Global Ocean–Regional Atmosphere Coupling

This study explores the added value (AV) of a regional Earth system model (ESM) compared to an atmosphere-only regional climate model (RCM) in simulating West African monsoon (WAM) rainfall. The primary goals are to foster discussions on the suitability of coupled RCMs for WAM projections and deepen our understanding of ocean–atmosphere coupling’s influence on the WAM system. The study employs results from dynamical downscaling of the ERA-Interim reanalysis and Max Plank Institute ESM, low resolution (MPI-ESM-LR), by two RCMs, atmosphere only (REMO) and REMO coupled with Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPIOM) (ROM), at ~25-km horizontal resolution. Results show that in regions distant from coupling domain boundaries such as West Africa (WA), constraint conditions from ERA-Interim are more beneficial than coupling effects. REMO, reliant on oceanic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from observations and influenced by ERA-Interim, is biased under coupling conditions, although coupling offers potential advantages in representing heat and mass fluxes. Contrastingly, as intended, coupling improves SSTs and monsoon fluxes’ relationships under ESM-forced conditions. In this latter case, the coupling features a dipole-like spatial structure of AV, improving precipitation over the Guinea Coast but degrading precipitation over half of the Sahel. Our extensive examination of physical processes and mechanisms underpinning the WAM system supports the plausibility of AV. Additionally, we found that the monsoonal dynamics over the ocean respond to convective activity, with the Sahara–Sahel surface temperature gradient serving as the maintenance mechanism. While further efforts are needed to enhance the coupled RCM, we advocate for its use in the context of WAM rainfall forecasts and projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Warm-phase microphysical evolution in large-eddy simulations of tropical cumulus congestus: evaluating drop size distribution evolution using polarimetry retrievals, in situ measurements, and a thermal-based framework

Owing to uncertainties in convective microphysics processes, improving parameterizations in Earth system models (ESMs) can benefit from observationally constrained cases suitable for scaling between cloud-resolving models and ESMs. We propose a benchmark large-eddy simulation (LES) cumulus congestus case study from the NASA Cloud, Aerosol, and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment (CAMP 2 Ex) for evaluating and improving ESMs in single-column model (SCM) mode. We seek observational constraints using novel polarimetric retrievals and in situ cloud microphysics measurements. Simulations using bulk and bin microphysics initialized with observed aerosol profiles are compared to cloud-top retrievals of cloud droplet effective radius (R eff ), effective variance (ν eff ), and number concentration (N d ) from the airborne Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP). Both schemes reproduce characteristics of cloud-top N d and R eff that increase and decrease with altitude, respectively. Cloud-top N d is low-biased relative to RSP retrievals in both schemes, potentially due to limitations in both simulations and retrieval assumptions. Cloud-top R eff is low-biased in the bulk scheme but reasonably reproduced by the bin scheme. Profiles of N d and R eff are sensitive to the collision–coalescence process and the vertical variation in aerosol size distribution. Comparison of simulated and in situ droplet size distributions (DSDs) shows that, to first order, integrated moments are always sensitive to sizes < ~ 30 µm and can also be sensitive to larger sizes if the DSDs are sufficiently broad, with implications for the assumed maximum observed size retrieved by the RSP. The bin scheme captures the observed extended tail of the DSD, while the bulk scheme is unable to due to parametric constraints. Differences in expected relationships between in situ measurements of cloud cores and cloud-top retrievals by RSP demonstrate difficulty in constraining well the case presented herein. Finally, a thermal-tracking framework demonstrates that the dilution of N d throughout a thermal's lifetime is heavily determined by collision–coalescence and the height-varying aerosol distribution and that, in the absence of these, the impact of entrainment on diluting N d is largely offset by secondary activation. Implications for evaluating warm-phase convective microphysics schemes in ESMs and translating results for use on global, space-based polarimetry platforms are discussed.

Stanford, McKenna Wallace [Columbia Univ., New Yor↗

The relative importance of wind and hydroclimate drivers in modulating the interannual variability of dust emissions in Earth system models

Windblown dust emissions are controlled by near-surface wind speed and sediment erodibility, the latter modulated by hydroclimate and land-use conditions. Accurate representations of these drivers are critical for reproducing historical dust variability and projecting future dust changes in Earth system models (ESMs). This study examines the discrepancies among 21 ESMs in the relative importance of wind speed versus five hydroclimate drivers in explaining the historical (1980–2014) variability of dust emissions from global drylands. In hyperarid areas, models show poor agreement in the simulated dust variability, with only 9 % out of 210 inter-model comparisons exhibiting significant positive correlations. In contrast, arid and semiarid areas exhibit a dual pattern driven by a “double-edged sword” effect of land surface memory: models with coherent hydroclimate variability show better agreement, whereas those with divergent hydroclimate representations show larger disagreement. While the ESMs capture the dominant role of wind speed in hyperarid areas, they diverge markedly in the relative contributions of wind and hydroclimate drivers in arid and semiarid areas. Replacing the Zender et al. (2003) dust scheme with the Kok et al. (2014) scheme in CESM and E3SM generally strengthens hydroclimate influences while reducing wind speed contributions to simulated dust variability. MERRA-2 reanalysis produces stronger wind influences than most ESMs across all dryland regions. These results underscore the need for improved near-surface wind simulations in hyperarid areas and more realistic land surface and hydroclimate representations in arid and semiarid areas to reduce uncertainties in global dust emission simulations.

Li, Xinzhu [Michigan Technological University, Hou↗

Systematic and objective evaluation of Earth system models: PCMDI Metrics Package (PMP) version 3

Systematic, routine, and comprehensive evaluation of Earth system models (ESMs) facilitates benchmarking improvement across model generations and identifying the strengths and weaknesses of different model configurations. By gauging the consistency between models and observations, this endeavor is becoming increasingly necessary to objectively synthesize the thousands of simulations contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) to date. The Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) Metrics Package (PMP) is an open-source Python software package that provides quick-look objective comparisons of ESMs with one another and with observations. The comparisons include metrics of large- to global-scale climatologies, tropical inter-annual and intra-seasonal variability modes such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), extratropical modes of variability, regional monsoons, cloud radiative feedbacks, and high-frequency characteristics of simulated precipitation, including its extremes. The PMP comparison results are produced using all model simulations contributed to CMIP6 and earlier CMIP phases. An important objective of the PMP is to document the performance of ESMs participating in the recent phases of CMIP, together with providing version-controlled information for all datasets, software packages, and analysis codes being used in the evaluation process. Among other purposes, this also enables modeling groups to assess performance changes during the ESM development cycle in the context of the error distribution of the multi-model ensemble. Quantitative model evaluation provided by the PMP can assist modelers in their development priorities. In this paper, we provide an overview of the PMP, including its latest capabilities, and discuss its future direction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Baseline Climate Variables for Earth System Modelling

The Baseline Climate Variables for Earth System Modelling (ESM-BCVs) are defined as a list of 135 variables which have high utility for the evaluation and exploitation of climate simulations. The list reflects the most frequently used elements of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) archive. Successive phases of CMIP have supported strong results in science and substantially influence international climate policy formulation. This paper responds to both interest in exploiting CMIP data standards in a broader range of climate modelling activities and a need to achieve greater clarity about the significance and intention of variables in the CMIP Data Request. As Earth system modelling archives grow in scale and complexity, there are emerging problems associated with weak standardisation at the variable collection level. That is, there are good standards covering how specific variables should be archived, but this paper fills a gap in the standardisation of which variables should be archived. The ESM-BCV list is intended as a resource for ESM intercomparison projects (MIPs) developing requests to enable greater consistency among MIPs and as a reference for modelling centres to enhance consistency within MIPs. Provisional planning for the CMIP7 Data Request exploits the ESM-BCVs as a core element. The baseline variable list includes 98 variables which have modest or minor data volume footprints and could be generated systematically when simulations are produced and archived for exploitation by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) community. A further 35 variables are classed as “high volume” and are only suitable for production when the resource implications are justified.

Juckes, Martin [University of Oxford (United Kingd↗

Cryogenic temperature control by means of energy storage materials

An investigation was conducted to study the concept of thermal control by means of physical or chemical reaction heats for applications involving the storage of cryogens during long-term space voyages. The investigation included some preliminary experimental tests of energy storage material (ESM) effectiveness. The materials considered can store and liberate large amounts of thermal energy by means of mechanisms such as sensible heat, heat of fusion, and physical or chemical reaction heat. A differential thermal analysis was utilized in the laboratory tests. Attention is given to the evaluation of cryogenic ESM thermal control concepts, the experimental determination of phase change materials characteristics, and adsorption ESMs. It is found that an ESM shield surrounded by multiple layer insulation provides the best protection for a cryogen store.

Grodzka, P. G.↗

Application of Energy Integration Techniques to the Design of Advanced Life Support Systems

Exchanging heat between hot and cold streams within an advanced life support system can save energy. This savings will reduce the equivalent system mass (ESM) of the system. Different system configurations are examined under steady-state conditions for various percentages of food growth and waste treatment. The scenarios investigated represent possible design options for a Mars reference mission. Reference mission definitions are drawn from the ALSS Modeling and Analysis Reference Missions Document, which includes definitions for space station evolution, Mars landers, and a Mars base. For each scenario, streams requiring heating or cooling are identified and characterized by mass flow, supply and target temperatures and heat capacities. The Pinch Technique is applied to identify good matches for energy exchange between the hot and cold streams and to calculate the minimum external heating and cooling requirements for the system. For each pair of hot and cold streams that are matched, there will be a reduction in the amount of external heating and cooling required, and the original heating and cooling equipment will be replaced with a heat exchanger. The net cost savings can be either positive or negative for each stream pairing, and the priority for implementing each pairing can be ranked according to its potential cost savings. Using the Pinch technique, a complete system heat exchange network is developed and heat exchangers are sized to allow for calculation of ESM. The energy-integrated design typically has a lower total ESM than the original design with no energy integration. A comparison of ESM savings in each of the scenarios is made to direct future Pinch Analysis efforts.

Levri, Julie↗

Practical Considerations of Waste Heat Reuse for a Mars Mission Advanced Life Support System

Energy conservation is a key issue in design optimization of Advanced Life Support Systems (ALSS) for long-term space missions. By considering designs for conservation at the system level, energy saving opportunities arise that would otherwise go unnoticed. This paper builds on a steady-state investigation of system-level waste heat reuse in an ALSS with a low degree of crop growth for a Mars mission. In past studies, such a system has been defined in terms of technology types, hot and cold stream identification and stream energy content. The maximum steady-state potential for power and cooling savings within the system was computed via the Pinch Method. In this paper, several practical issues are considered for achieving a pragmatic estimate of total system savings in terms of equivalent system mass (ESM), rather than savings solely in terms of power and cooling. In this paper, more realistic ESM savings are computed by considering heat transfer inefficiencies during material transfer. An estimate of the steady-state mass, volume and crewtime requirements associated with heat exchange equipment is made by considering heat exchange equipment material type and configuration, stream flow characteristics and associated energy losses during the heat exchange process. Also, previously estimated power and cooling savings are adjusted to reflect the impact of such energy losses. This paper goes one step further than the traditional Pinch Method of considering waste heat reuse in heat exchangers to include ESM savings that occur with direct reuse of a stream. For example, rather than exchanging heat between crop growth lamp cooling air and air going to a clothes dryer, air used to cool crop lamps might be reused directly for clothes drying purposes. When thermodynamically feasible, such an approach may increase ESM savings by minimizing the mass, volume and crewtime requirements associated with stream routing equipment.

Levri, Julie↗

Advanced Life Support System Value Metric

The NASA Advanced Life Support (ALS) Program is required to provide a performance metric to measure its progress in system development. Extensive discussions within the ALS program have reached a consensus. The Equivalent System Mass (ESM) metric has been traditionally used and provides a good summary of the weight, size, and power cost factors of space life support equipment. But ESM assumes that all the systems being traded off exactly meet a fixed performance requirement, so that the value and benefit (readiness, performance, safety, etc.) of all the different systems designs are exactly equal. This is too simplistic. Actual system design concepts are selected using many cost and benefit factors and the system specification is then set accordingly. The ALS program needs a multi-parameter metric including both the ESM and a System Value Metric (SVM). The SVM would include safety, maintainability, reliability, performance, use of cross cutting technology, and commercialization potential. Another major factor in system selection is technology readiness level (TRL), a familiar metric in ALS. The overall ALS system metric that is suggested is a benefit/cost ratio, [SVM + TRL]/ESM, with appropriate weighting and scaling. The total value is the sum of SVM and TRL. Cost is represented by ESM. The paper provides a detailed description and example application of the suggested System Value Metric.

Jones, Harry W.↗

The Effect of Mission Location on Mission Costs and Equivalent System Mass

It is the goal of developers of advanced life support researcher to develop technology that reduces the cost of life support for future space missions and thereby enables missions that are currently infeasible or too expensive. Because the cost of propulsion dominates the cost of hardware emplacement in space and because the mass of a deliverable object controls its propulsive requirements, equivalent system mass (ESM) is used as a means for accounting for mission costs. ESM is typically calculated by adding to the actual mass the equivalent amount of mass that must be added to a mission due to other characteristics of a piece of hardware such as the item s volume or energy requirements. This approach works well for comparing different pieces of hardware when they go to the same location in space. However, different locations in mission space such low Earth orbit, Mars surface, or full trip to Mars and return to low Earth orbit require vastly different amounts of propulsion. Moving an object from Earth surface to the Martian surface and returning it to Earth will require as much as 100 times the propulsion that is required to move the object to low Earth orbit only. This paper presents the case for including the effect that location can have on cost as a part of ESM and suggests a method for achieving this improvement of ESM.

Fisher, John W.↗

The Effect of Mission Location on Mission Costs and Equivalent System Mass

Equivalent System Mass (ESM) is used by the Advanced Life Support (ALS) community to quantify mission costs of technologies for space applications (Drysdale et al, 1999, Levri et al, 2000). Mass is used as a cost measure because the mass of an object determines propulsion (acceleration) cost (i.e. amount of fuel needed), and costs relating to propulsion dominate mission cost. Mission location drives mission cost because acceleration is typically required to initiate and complete a change in location. Total mission costs may be reduced by minimizing the mass of materials that must be propelled to each distinct location. In order to minimize fuel requirements for missions beyond low-Earth orbit (LEO), the hardware and astronauts may not all go to the same location. For example, on a Lunar or Mars mission, some of the hardware or astronauts may stay in orbit while the rest of the hardware and astronauts descend to the planetary surface. In addition, there may be disposal of waste or used hardware at various mission locations to avoid propulsion of mass that is no longer needed in the mission. This paper demonstrates how using location factors in the calculation of ESM can account for the effects of various acceleration events and can improve the accuracy and value of the ESM metric to mission planners. Even a mission with one location can benefit from location factor analysis if the alternative technologies under consideration consume resources at different rates. For example, a mission that regenerates resources will have a relatively constant mass compared to one that uses consumables and vents/discards mass along the way. This paper shows examples of how location factors can affect ESM calculations and how the inclusion of location factors can change the relative value of technologies being considered for development.

Fisher, John W.↗

Reliability Impacts in Life Support Architecture and Technology Selection

Equivalent System Mass (ESM) and reliability estimates were performed for different life support architectures based primarily on International Space Station (ISS) technologies. The analysis was applied to a hypothetical 1-year deep-space mission. High-level fault trees were initially developed relating loss of life support functionality to the Loss of Crew (LOC) top event. System reliability was then expressed as the complement (nonoccurrence) this event and was increased through the addition of redundancy and spares, which added to the ESM. The reliability analysis assumed constant failure rates and used current projected values of the Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF) from an ISS database where available. Results were obtained showing the dependence of ESM on system reliability for each architecture. Although the analysis employed numerous simplifications and many of the input parameters are considered to have high uncertainty, the results strongly suggest that achieving necessary reliabilities for deep-space missions will add substantially to the life support system mass. As a point of reference, the reliability for a single-string architecture using the most regenerative combination of ISS technologies without unscheduled replacement spares was estimated to be less than 1%. The results also demonstrate how adding technologies in a serial manner to increase system closure forces the reliability of other life support technologies to increase in order to meet the system reliability requirement. This increase in reliability results in increased mass for multiple technologies through the need for additional spares. Alternative parallel architecture approaches and approaches with the potential to do more with less are discussed. The tall poles in life support ESM are also reexamined in light of estimated reliability impacts.

Lange, Kevin E.↗

Reliability Impacts in Life Support Architecture and Technology Selection

Quantitative assessments of system reliability and equivalent system mass (ESM) were made for different life support architectures based primarily on International Space Station technologies. The analysis was applied to a one-year deep-space mission. System reliability was increased by adding redundancy and spares, which added to the ESM. Results were thus obtained allowing a comparison of the ESM for each architecture at equivalent levels of reliability. Although the analysis contains numerous simplifications and uncertainties, the results suggest that achieving necessary reliabilities for deep-space missions will add substantially to the life support ESM and could influence the optimal degree of life support closure. Approaches for reducing reliability impacts were investigated and are discussed.

Lange Kevin E.↗

Advancement of Entry System Modeling to Support Exploration of Giant Planets

This paper describes NASA’s efforts to advance entry system modeling and simulation capabilities to support future exploration of Giant planets. The Giant planets are key destinations of interest to the planetary science community for their potential to provide insight into the formation and evolution of our Solar System, as well as extrasolar planetary systems. To date, the Galileo atmospheric probe is the only purpose-built entry probe to a Giant planet. Post-flight analysis of Galileo’s performance showed that there was significant recession of the thermal protection system (TPS), well beyond what was anticipated on the flank, and this was due in part to insufficiently accurate capability for estimating the flight environment and TPS response. While Galileo ultimately survived its flight, the example serves to highlight the great challenge of designing successful missions for environments that are poorly understood or where models have not yet been validated. An important means to reduce mission risks is the incorporation of physics-based modeling with well-quantified uncertainties. The emphasis on physics-based modeling – in contrast to empirically-driven models – is motivated by the fact that it is impossible to completely replicate entry environments through ground tests and, therefore, extrapolation to the flight environment is required. Basing analysis in fundamental physics removes the bias of ground test limitations, though one must then be careful to properly characterize model inputs, simplifying assumptions, and the limits wherein the model is valid. NASA’s Entry Systems Modeling (ESM) Project is tasked with investigating such considerations for planetary science missions across the Solar System, and in recent years has begun to do so for Giant planets. The most distinctive features of the Giant planets, from an entry system perspective, are the atmospheres composed primarily of hydrogen and helium. The entry velocities of proposed missions are generally very large and can therefore be expected to result in significant convective and radiative heating generated by the vehicle’s shock layer. Yet thermochemical behavior of the hydrogen-helium system is not well understood under such conditions. The ESM project is leading efforts to develop accurate thermochemical databases based on state-of-the-art measurements in the Electric Arc Shock Tube and detailed computational chemistry. The large heat fluxes anticipated by missions has driven interest in new TPS materials, in particular woven materials, which may be enabling but have never been flown before. Consequently, multiscale models are in development to describe properties and performance of the materials from micro- to system-scale. The goal is to not only provide accurate thermal response but also to inform thermostructural reliability predictions for extreme entries. Additionally, new computational models have been developed to evaluate performance of non-destructive evaluation techniques which are vital to establishing acceptance of systems to be free of manufacturing faults like material cracking, voids, and debonding. Finally, in the area of guidance and control, aerocapture has been shown conceptually to provide a number of mission benefits, including reducing transit time and increasing payload fraction. The ESM project is building a launch-to-landing trajectory simulation capability to enable detailed studies of aerocapture maneuvers in the context of Giant planets missions. The final presentation and paper will describe each of these topics in detail, including discussion of specific gaps and the technical approach to solving them. In addition, the final paper will briefly discuss ongoing coordination between ESM project work and an ESA-funded technology development activity comprised of validation testing in the Oxford T6, IRS PWK and IST ESTHER tunnels, as well as state-to-state modeling of the shock layer to better represent non-Boltzmann energy distributions leading to non-equilibrium radiation.

Entry systems↗

Evaluation of CMIP6 Model Simulations of PM 2.5 and its Components Over China

Earth system models (ESMs) participating in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulate various components of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) as major climate forcers. Yet the model performance for PM 2.5 components remains little evaluated due in part to a lack of observational data. Here, we evaluate near-surface concentrations of PM 2.5 and its five main components over China as simulated by 14 CMIP6 models, including organic carbon (OC; available in 14 models), black carbon (BC; 14 models), sulfate (14 models), nitrate (4 models), and ammonium (5 models). For this purpose, we collect observational data between 2000 and 2014 from a satellite-based dataset for total PM2.5 and from 2469 measurement records in the literature for PM 2.5 components. Seven models output total PM 2.5 concentrations, and they all underestimate the observed total PM 2.5 over eastern China, with GFDL-ESM4 (−1.5 %) and MPI-ESM-1-2-HAM (−1.1 %) exhibiting the smallest biases averaged over the whole country. The other seven models, for which we recalculate total PM 2.5 from the available component output, underestimate the total PM 2.5 concentrations partly because of the missing model representations of nitrate and ammonium. Concentrations of the five individual components are underestimated in almost all models, except that sulfate is overestimated in MPI-ESM-1-2-HAM by 12.6 % and in MRI-ESM2-0 by 24.5 %. The underestimation is the largest for OC (by −71.2 % to −37.8 % across the 14 models) and the smallest for BC (−47.9 % to −12.1 %). The multi-model mean (MMM) reproduces the observed spatial pattern for OC (R = 0.51), sulfate (R = 0.57), nitrate (R = 0.70) and ammonium (R = 0.74) fairly well, yet the agreement is poorer for BC (R = 0.39). The varying performances of ESMs on total PM 2.5 and its components have important implications for the modeled magnitude and spatial pattern of aerosol radiative forcing.

CMIP6↗

Evaluation of Flow Routing on the Unstructured Voronoi Meshes in Earth System Modeling

Flow routing is a fundamental process of Earth System Models' (ESMs) river component. Traditional flow routing models rely on Cartesian rectangular meshes, which exhibit limitations, particularly when coupled with unstructured mesh-based ocean components. They also lack the support for regionally refined models. While previous studies have highlighted the potential benefits of unstructured meshes for flow routing, their widespread application and comprehensive evaluation within ESMs remain limited. This study extends the river component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model to unstructured Voronoi meshes. We evaluated the model's performance in simulating river discharge and water depth across three watersheds spanning the Arctic, temperate, and tropical regions. The results show that while providing several benefits, unstructured mesh-based flow routing can achieve comparable performance to structured mesh-based routing, and their difference is often less than 10%. Although the unstructured mesh-based method could address several existing limitations, this research also shows that additional improvements in the numerical method are needed to fully exploit the advantages of unstructured mesh for hydrologic and ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data and code for Daily and Multi-Day Extreme Rainfall Analysis Under Future Climates Using Stochastic Storm Transposition and NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 Over CONUS

This data package provides inputs, codes, and outputs for a comprehensive analysis of projected changes in extreme precipitation across 10 regions of the continental United States, using 34 downscaled Earth System Models (ESMs) from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) dataset. These models are part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), a coordinated climate modeling framework widely used to assess climate change impacts. The analysis applies a stochastic storm transposition method to quantify changes in extreme rainfall under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) climate scenarios—SSP2-4.5 (moderate emissions) and SSP5-8.5 (high emissions)—compared to historical conditions (1995–2014 vs. 2081–2100). The dataset includes rainfall depth estimates for extreme events with return periods from 2 to 500 years across multiple storm durations (1, 3, and 5 days) for each of the 10 U.S. regions. Weighted ensemble statistics are derived from individual ESM performance against historical precipitation patterns, enabling robust uncertainty quantification through both sign-based and permutation-test-based model agreement assessments. Key analyses address: (1) relative changes in extreme precipitation for each climate scenario, (2) differences between SSP scenarios (SSP5-8.5 vs. SSP2-4.5), (3) contrasts between rare and frequent events, and (4) variations between multi-day and daily storm durations. The workflow produces ensemble statistics—median, 5th, 25th, 75th, and 95th percentiles—along with model agreement metrics that identify regions and event types with robust climate change signals. The dataset includes: processed rainfall depth outputs (netCDF format) from the RainyDay Python package, ESM weights from historical performance evaluation using DayMet observations, ensemble statistics across all storm dimensions, and figures summarizing key findings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗