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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Origin of Metal-Insulator Transition in Rare-Earth Nickelates

Rare-earth nickelates RNiO3 (R=rare-earth element) undergo coupled structural, metal-insulator, and magnetic changes as temperature is lowered. Because the metal-insulator transition often occurs together with a symmetry-lowering distortion, it is commonly viewed as lattice driven. Here we use QSGW calculations to separate the roles of spin and structure. In the high-symmetry Pbnm phase, imposing spin disproportionation already starts to open an electronic gap, although the undistorted lattice cannot stabilize a full insulating state in both spin channels. In the low-symmetry P21/n phase, removing the spin disproportionation destroys the insulating solution even though the bond disproportionation remains. These tests show that spin disproportionation is the primary electronic driver of gap formation, while structural disproportionation acts as the enabler that allows the inequivalent Ni states to become spatially separated and fully insulating. As an explicit finite-temperature example, machine-learned molecular dynamics for NdNiO3 at 220 K shows that a nominally high-symmetry Pbnm structure dynamically samples local Ni-O bond disproportionation, while retaining Pbnm symmetry on average. This illustrates a general structural channel by which thermal fluctuations in the high-symmetry phase can help stabilize locally spin-disproportionated states.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Nitrogen Activation in Electrochemical Reduction: The Role of Rare Earth Oxide Surface Configurations

The pursuit of sustainable ammonia synthesis has prompted the exploration of ambient electrochemical nitrogen reduction reaction (e-NRR) as an alternative to the energy-intensive Haber-Bosch process. Here, this study conducted a theoretical investigation into the use of rare earth oxide materials, specifically dysprosium oxide (Dy 2 O 3 ), as potential electrocatalysts for NRR. Utilizing spin-polarized density functional theory calculations, we explored the interaction between Dy 2 O 3 surfaces and nitrogen (N 2 ) molecules, examining the capability of Dy 2 O 3 to adsorb and activate N 2 under ambient conditions. The results indicate that Dy 2 O 3 surfaces exhibit diverse configurations and bonding environments, providing a variety of reactive sites that display different behaviors in N 2 adsorption and activation. The distinctive electronic structure and surface chemistry of a particular Dy 2 O 3 surface configuration were found to significantly enhance the activation of N 2 by promoting charge transfer, which facilitates the NRR process. This research provides deep insights into the mechanistic pathways of N 2 reduction over Dy 2 O 3 , highlighting the surface properties as pivotal in catalysis. These theoretical insights serve as a foundation for the development of novel rare earth-based electrocatalytic materials for efficient ambient e-NRR, potentially transforming ammonia production into a greener and more energy-efficient process.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Developing Fluorescence-Based Sensors to Support Rare Earth Element Separation

Rare earth elements (REEs) are essential to most renewable energy technologies. Unfortunately, as we transition to sustainable energy production, the demand for REEs is rapidly growing well beyond current rates of production. As a result, novel means of efficient, scalable, and easily adaptable methods for processing primary and recycle feedstocks are needed. Development and integration of sensors for highly selective in-line monitoring can support more efficient design and testing of such novel separation processes, as well as more cost-effective deployment of those separation flowsheets. Work here will explore the application of fluorescence spectroscopy, a highly sensitive and selective technique, to quantify multiple lanthanides in complex mixtures including known interferents or quenching agents. Results include identification of the optimal excitation wavelength and the limit of detection of various rare earth elements as well as the performance of data-science-based quantification approaches in streams where “unknowns” are present. Overall, the data science tools in conjunction with optical sensor data were able to quantify analytes in the presence of other lanthanides which can be anticipated in the actual industrial stream. Here we include characterization of lanthanides in a microfluidic device similar to those used in new process development. This study demonstrates the capability of utilizing fluorescence spectroscopy to quantify analytes in a complicated solution matrix, suggesting this is a successful approach for in-line monitoring to optimize the separation efficiency in an industrial stream.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of Sea‐Level Rise on Coastal Groundwater Table Simulated by an Earth System Model With a Land‐Ocean Coupling Scheme

Abstract Sea‐level rise (SLR) poses a severe threat to the coastal environment through seawater intrusion into freshwater aquifers. The rising groundwater table also exacerbates the risk of pluvial, fluvial, and groundwater flooding in coastal regions. However, current Earth system models (ESMs) commonly ignore the exchanges of water at the land‐ocean interface. To address this gap, we developed a novel land‐ocean hydrologic coupling scheme in a state‐of‐the‐science ESM, the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2). The new scheme includes the lateral exchange between seawater and groundwater and the vertical infiltration of seawater driven by the SLR‐induced inundation. Simulations were performed with the updated E3SMv2 for the global land‐ocean interface to assess the impacts of SLR on coastal groundwater under a high CO 2 emission scenario. By the middle of this century, seawater infiltration on the inundated areas will be the dominant component in the land‐ocean coupling process, while the lateral subsurface flow exchange will be much smaller. The SLR‐induced seawater infiltration will raise the groundwater levels, enhance evapotranspiration, and increase runoff with distinct spatial patterns globally in the future. Although the coupling process is induced by SLR, we found topography and warming temperature have more control on the coupling impacts, probably due to the relatively modest magnitude of SLR during the selected future period. Overall, our study suggests significant groundwater and seawater exchange at the land‐ocean interface, which needs to be considered in ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

High-Pressure Melting Experiments of Fe 3 C and a Thermodynamic Model of Fe-C Liquids for the Earth's Core

Melting experiments of Fe 3 C were conducted to 85 GPa in laser-heated diamond anvil cells with in situ X-ray diffraction and post-experiment textural observation. From the determined pressure-temperature conditions of the melting curve for Fe 3 C, together with literature data on the melting point of diamond and eutectic point of the system Fe-Fe 3 C/Fe 7 C 3 under high pressures, we established a self-consistent thermodynamic model for high-pressure melting of the system Fe-C including the mixing parameters for liquids. The results show that mixing of Fe and C liquids is negatively nonideal from 1 bar to the pressure at the center of the Earth. The departure from ideal mixing becomes progressively larger with increasing pressure, which leads to greatly stabilized liquids under core pressures. The modeled carbon content in eutectic melts under core pressures is 3.3–4.4 wt%. From the Gibbs free energy, we derived an internally consistent parameters for Fe-C outer cores which included the crystallizing points at their bottoms, isentropic thermal profiles, and densities and longitudinal seismic wave speeds (Vp). While the addition of carbon in excess of the eutectic melt composition effectively reduces the density of iron liquid, the Vp of iron liquid is not greatly changed. Therefore, the low density and high Vp of PREM relative to pure iron cannot be reconciled by an Fe-C liquid. Therefore, the Earth's core cannot be approximated by the system Fe-C and should include another light element.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhanced Simulation of Atmospheric Blocking in a High‐Resolution Earth System Model: Projected Changes and Implications for Extreme Weather Events

Atmospheric blocking is closely linked to the occurrence of extreme weather events. However, low-resolution Earth system models often underestimate the frequency of blocking, undermining confidence in future projections. Here, in this study, we use the high-resolution Community Earth System Model (CESM-HR; 25 km atm and 10 km ocean) to show that CESM-HR reduces biases in atmospheric blocking for both winter and summer, particularly for events lasting longer than 10 days. This improvement is partly due to reduced sea surface temperature biases at higher resolution. Additionally, applying a bias correction to the 500 hPa geopotential height further enhances blocking frequency simulations, highlighting the crucial role of the mean state. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario, CESM-HR projects a decrease in wintertime blocking over regions such as the Euro-Atlantic and Chukchi-Alaska, consistent with previous studies. In contrast, summer blocking is expected to become more frequent and persistent, driven by weakened zonal winds. The blocking center shifts from historical locations over Scandinavia and eastern Russia to central Eurasia, significantly increasing blocking over the Ural region. Summer blocking frequency over the Scandinavia-Ural region may eventually surpass historical winter blocking over the Euro-Atlantic. This increase in summer blocking could exacerbate summer heatwaves in a warming climate, making severe heatwaves, like those observed recently, more common in the future.

Atmospheric blocking↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of Flow Routing on the Unstructured Voronoi Meshes in Earth System Modeling

Flow routing is a fundamental process of Earth System Models' (ESMs) river component. Traditional flow routing models rely on Cartesian rectangular meshes, which exhibit limitations, particularly when coupled with unstructured mesh-based ocean components. They also lack the support for regionally refined models. While previous studies have highlighted the potential benefits of unstructured meshes for flow routing, their widespread application and comprehensive evaluation within ESMs remain limited. This study extends the river component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model to unstructured Voronoi meshes. We evaluated the model's performance in simulating river discharge and water depth across three watersheds spanning the Arctic, temperate, and tropical regions. The results show that while providing several benefits, unstructured mesh-based flow routing can achieve comparable performance to structured mesh-based routing, and their difference is often less than 10%. Although the unstructured mesh-based method could address several existing limitations, this research also shows that additional improvements in the numerical method are needed to fully exploit the advantages of unstructured mesh for hydrologic and ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Subseasonal Tropical Convection Characteristics in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 2

Accurate simulation of subseasonal tropical moist convection remains a key challenge for Earth system models. The difficulties stem from the reliance of cumulus cloud processes on model parameterizations and the need to represent the multiscale nature of interactions among clouds, radiation, moisture, circulation, and surface energy fluxes. Equatorial convection drives circulation anomalies that can affect weather patterns and extremes globally, motivating efforts to better understand and simulate these tropical disturbances. Here, a detailed review of subseasonal tropical convective behavior as simulated in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) is presented, with comparison to its predecessor version 1 (E3SMv1) and reference data sets. Model structural changes to the deep convective trigger function and surface fluxes, along with parametric tuning of the cloud and microphysics schemes, together result in an improved depiction of organized tropical convection across scales. In particular, E3SMv2 exhibits a more realistic Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) and low‐frequency Kelvin waves—owing to a sharper time mean equatorial meridional moisture gradient and improved convection‐circulation coupling —as well as a better depiction of MJO Northern Hemisphere teleconnections. Despite these improvements, subseasonal precipitation variance continues to be strongly underestimated in E3SMv2. Use of a cloud plume model also reveals that the coupling between daily averaged tropical precipitation and lower tropospheric instability in E3SM is inconsistent with observations, a bias that could potentially impact the simulation of intraseasonal disturbances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Structure-driven development of a biomimetic rare earth artificial metalloprotein

The 2011 discovery of the first rare earth–dependent enzyme in methylotrophic Methylobacterium extorquens AM1 prompted intensive research toward understanding the unique chemistry at play in these systems. This enzyme, an alcohol dehydrogenase (ADH), features a La 3+ ion closely associated with redox-active coenzyme pyrroloquinoline quinone (PQQ) and is structurally homologous to the Ca 2+ -dependent ADH from the same organism. AM1 also produces a periplasmic PQQ-binding protein, PqqT, which we have now structurally characterized to 1.46-Å resolution by X-ray diffraction. This crystal structure reveals a Lys residue hydrogen-bonded to PQQ at the site analogously occupied by a Lewis acidic cation in ADH. Accordingly, we prepared K 142 A- and K 142 D-PqqT variants to assess the relevance of this site toward metal binding. Isothermal titration calorimetry experiments and titrations monitored by UV–Vis absorption and emission spectroscopies support that K 142 D-PqqT binds tightly (Kd = 0.6 ± 0.2 μM) to La 3+ in the presence of bound PQQ and produces spectral signatures consistent with those of ADH enzymes. These spectral signatures are not observed for WT- or K 142 A-variants or upon addition of Ca 2+ to PQQ ⸦ K 142 D-PqqT. Addition of benzyl alcohol to La 3+ -bound PQQ ⸦ K 142 D-PqqT (but not Ca 2+ -bound PQQ ⸦ K 142 D-PqqT, or La 3+ -bound PQQ ⸦ WT-PqqT) produces spectroscopic changes associated with PQQ reduction, and chemical trapping experiments reveal the production of benzaldehyde, supporting ADH activity. By creating a metal binding site that mimics native ADH enzymes, we present a rare earth-dependent artificial metalloenzyme primed for future mechanistic, biocatalytic, and biosensing applications.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probing iron in Earth’s core with molecular-spin dynamics

Dynamic compression of iron to Earth-core conditions is one of the few ways to gather important elastic and transport properties needed to uncover key mechanisms surrounding the geodynamo effect. Herein, a machine-learned ab initio derived molecular-spin dynamics (MSD) methodology with explicit treatment for longitudinal spin-fluctuations is utilized to probe the dynamic phase-diagram of iron. This framework uniquely enables an accurate resolution of the phase-transition kinetics and Earth-core elastic properties, as highlighted by compressional wave velocity and adiabatic bulk moduli measurements. In addition, a unique coupling of MSD with time-dependent density functional theory enables gauging electronic transport properties, critically important for resolving geodynamo dynamics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Targeted Rare Earth Element Extraction from Mine Drainage Treatment Solids Informed by Advanced Characterization

In support of a clean energy transition in the U.S., National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) has collaborated with staff at Hedin Environmental and students at the University of Pittsburgh to characterize critical mineral content and recovery potential from acid mine drainage treatment solids (AMD solids). AMD solids in Appalachia are an unconventional feedstock of rare earth elements (REEs), with potential of suppling 1,102 tons REE/year. To inform recovery efforts, select AMD solids were examined using synchrotron microprobe analysis in conjunction with USGS-developed geochemical modeling to indicate likely phases hosting critical minerals (REE, Co, Ni, etc.) and associated metals . More than 100 AMD solids were collected from 94 passive AMD treatment systems in Pennsylvania, where limestone aggregates are used for acidity neutralization. As pH increases, dissolved metals and critical minerals in AMD are attenuated as surface coatings on limestone. The collected AMD solids contained up to 2000 mg/kg REE, up to 13,000 mg/kg transition metals (Co, Ni, Zn) and up to 440 mg/kg Li. Regardless of the diverse chemical compositions from AMD solids (Al-rich, Mn-rich, or Al,Fe,Mn-rich), REEs were mostly associated with Al and Mn (hydr)oxides, while select heavy REEs (e.g., Gd, Dy) were co-localized with Fe (hydr)oxides. Co and Ni have different distribution zones, while both co-localized with Mn (hydr)oxides. Based on this characterization, NETL developed a patent-pending innovative step-leaching protocol, “Targeted Rare Earth Extraction (TREE)” to effectively recover up to 90% REE and 60% Co in separate steps. In addition, select post-TREE solid residuals (purified Al oxides, or Mn oxides) can be further developed into functional materials (e.g., lithium and CO2 sorbents) needed for green energy transition and carbon management. This characterization-informed approach as well as TREE processing from AMD solids can be used for other legacy wastes (e.g., coal ash, oil and gas drill cutting, mine tailings), and offers an opportunity to transform waste streams into environmental and economic assets that meet U.S. Department of Energy and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency goals.

characterization and extraction of rare earth elem↗
DOE OSTI2024

Transforming Uinta Basin Earth Materials for Advanced Products (TUBE-MAP)

The objectives of this project were to quantify, assess, and plan to enable the transformation of Uinta Basin earth resources, such as coal, oil shale, resin, rare earth elements, and critical minerals into high value metal, mineral, and carbon-based products. The specific major goals were 1) basinal assessments and initial planning (Task 2), 2) basinal assessment for waste stream reuse with associated plan development (Task 3), 3) basinal strategies development for infrastructure, industries, and business (Task 4), 4) technology assessment, development, and field-testing plan (Task 5), 5) technology innovation center plan (Task 6), and 6) stakeholder outreach and education plan (Task 7).

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2026

Development of Industrial Scale Rare Earth Master Alloys from Their Native Oxides for Magnet Production

The objective of the project is to develop an energy-efficient, reduced cost, and single-step critical metal oxide reduction and alloying methodology for the production of NdFeB and SmCo magnets to facilitate the establishment of a sustainable domestic critical materials supply chain. The method consists of an immiscible molten salt flux layer and a higher density molten metal alloy pool (FeB or Co). The rare earth (RE) oxide and a reductant are added to the molten salt layer, where the reductant first strips the oxygen from the rare earth oxide. Subsequently, the separated RE metal diffuses into the molten metal pool below, creating a RE-saturated master alloy. Towards this end, thermodynamic calculations of the reactions between RE oxides, metallic reducing agent, and molten salt bath chemistry have been performed, and the ideal feeds and conditions for extraction and diffusion to produce master alloys were established. Small-scale and scaled experimentation was performed to validate and optimize the feasibility of viable reactions, temperatures, and process conditions with regards to yield, composition, and process efficiency. Finally, full-scale experiments for the production of NdFeB and SmCo magnets were performed, and their performance characteristics were established.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Thermal Management for a Novel Non-Heavy Rare-Earth Interior Permanent Magnet Machine

The work presents a thermal management solution for a novel non-heavy rare-earth permanent magnet machine being developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The motor has been designed to minimize losses while maximizing performance for a range of speeds and power ratings. The novel motor design reduces rare-earth magnet usage, thereby avoiding supply chain issues. The motor component heat losses are established for operating windows and desired performance. These heat losses, along with windage losses, are being used to develop cooling solutions for different components of this machine. A novel thermal management solution for stators and rotors has been developed, and progress is presented in this paper. The stator cooling is achieved with the help of water-ethylene glycol flowing over the finned aluminum stator jacket, and rotor cooling with automatic transmission fluid passing through novel channels designed in the rotor laminations. The attempt is to establish effective cooling of the stator winding, laminations, and rotor magnets. A 3D conjugate heat transfer model has been developed for overall thermal analysis to establish a down- selected thermal management solution for the machine. The model, in addition to estimated component heat losses, includes windage losses and its impact on rotor and stator cooling. Overall, the work presents a workable thermal solution for the interior permanent magnet machine with potential for further improvements. Future work will involve establishing end winding and refinement of other end parts of the machine with the aim of establishing a robust thermal management solution. The work will also focus on different shapes (e.g., round, non-round, presence of wedges) of rotor-stator gaps and investigate windage losses and their impact on thermal management for higher rotational speeds for the machine.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Storage Field Development Plan: One Earth Energy

This Storage Field Development plan presents the Storage Complex characterization results, construction, monitoring, and operational plans, and costs associated with the proposed One Earth Sequestration Carbon Capture and Storage (OES-CCS) site in McLean County, Illinois, near Gibson City. The proposed storage complex, known as the Mt. Simon Storage Complex, comprises the Cambrian Mt. Simon Sandstone reservoir and the primary seal, the Cambrian Eau Claire Formation. The lowermost Underground Source of Drinking Water (USDW) identified for the site is the Ordovician St. Peter Sandstone. Geologic characterization of the Mt. Simon Storage Complex at the OES-CCS site was performed by the Illinois Storage Corridor CarbonSAFE Phase III project, which also prepared and submitted three UIC Class VI applications to construct three injection wells; the permit applications were submitted and are in the federal EPA review process. A characterization well, OEE #1, was drilled to collect site-specific data. These data were analyzed and used to develop the UIC Class VI applications. The OEE #1 well will be converted to an in-zone monitoring (IZM) well for the injection phase. The proposed buildout for the OES-CCS site includes (1) three injection wells (OES #1, OES #2, and OES #3), (2) two IZM wells, (3) two above confining zone (ACZ) monitoring wells, one of which will be used to monitor the lowermost USDW, (4) capture and compression facilities, and (5) transportation facilities, i.e., pipelines. A pre-operational testing program was proposed in the Class VI permit application and will be employed at the site pending approval. Additional pre-injection (baseline), syn-injection, and post-injection monitoring and site care procedures will be followed by OES to ensure that injection activities are protective of human health and the environment. Injection is scheduled to begin in 2025, distributed across the three injection wells in accordance with the permit operating conditions. One Earth Sequestration intends to inject up to 90 million tonnes of CO 2 over a period of approximately 20 years. Injection will begin at approximately 0.5 million tonnes of CO 2 annually and ramp up to a maximum of 4.5 million tonnes annually. Daily injection rates are expected to range from 1,400 to 1,500 tonnes per day initially and reach a maximum of approximately 4,225 tonnes per day, depending on site geology and injectivity at each injection well location, and CO 2 availability. The costs associated with the OES-CCS project include pre-operational costs (e. g. additional seismic data acquisition and well drilling), capture and transportation facility and equipment costs, predicted field operating expenditures (OpEx), and decommissioning and post-injection site care (PISC) costs. The risks associated with project activities, such as site construction, injection operations, and verification of secure storage were evaluated, and mitigation strategies proposed to alleviate those risks.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Editorial: Predicting near-earth space environment: new perspective and capabilities in the AI age

Editorial on the Research Topic Predicting near-earth space environment: new perspective and capabilities in the AI age The near-Earth space environment is not only an operational hazard for space missions, but also a scientific laboratory for advancing our understanding and prediction of space plasma populations. This Research Topic is organized around three interconnected themes: observational datasets, machine-learning (ML) model development, and the discovery of new physical insights through those models. Its primary goal is to highlight the emerging capabilities in space environment prediction that are enabled, or will be enabled, by integrating advanced techniques—including AI/ML methods—with long-term curated datasets.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Technoeconomic Assessment of Phosphoric Acid and Rare Earth Element Recovery from Phosphoric Acid Sludge

Sustainability faces many challenges, including the availability of materials necessary for technological advancement. Rare earth elements (REEs), for example, are key materials for several manufacturing industries that can unlock renewable energy and sustainable development. In this study, a decanter centrifuge has been employed to successfully separated phosphoric acid and REE-containing particles from phosphoric acid sludge with concentrations ranging from 1000 to 2200 ppm REEs. Operating efficiently with up to 35 wt.% solids, the centrifuge was demonstrated to achieve approximately 95% phosphoric acid recovery and 90% REE recovery in a single pass, eliminating the need for additional processing steps. This breakthrough supports a proposed rare earth oxide (REO) recovery process integrating phosphoric acid (PA), elemental phosphorus (P4), and REO into two potential pathways: PA-REO and PA-P4-REO. These processes aim to reintroduce recovered phosphoric acid into the main product to significantly increase output and revenue. Post-separation, phosphorus-rich particles can be converted to P4, while REE-containing solids undergo further treatment including acid leaching, extraction/stripping, precipitation, and calcination to produce a marketable REO material. Technoeconomic analysis indicates promising profitability, with the PA-REO process showing a delta net present value (ΔNPV) of USD 441.8 million over a 12-year period and expected return within a year of construction, while the PA-P4-REO process yields a ΔNPV of USD 178.7 million over a 12-year return period. Both pathways offer robust financial prospects and demonstrate the feasibility of commercial-scale REO recovery from phosphoric acid sludge, offering an economically feasible approach to produce REEs for future sustainable development challenges related to sustainability.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Global Fire Simulations in CMIP6 Earth System Models

Fire is the primary form of terrestrial ecosystem disturbance on a global scale and an important Earth system process. Most Earth system models (ESMs) have incorporated fire modeling, with 19 of them submitting model outputs of fire-related variables to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This study provides the first comprehensive evaluation of CMIP6 historical fire simulations by comparing them with multiple satellite-based products and charcoal-based historical reconstructions. Our results show that most CMIP6 models simulate the present-day global burned area and fire carbon emissions within the range of satellite-based products. They also capture the major features of observed spatial patterns and seasonal cycles, the relationship of fires with precipitation and population density, and the influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variability of tropical fires. Regional fire carbon emissions simulated by the CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2010 generally align with the charcoal-based reconstructions, although there are regional mismatches, such as in southern South America and eastern temperate North America prior to the 1910s and in temperate North America, eastern boreal North America, Europe, and boreal Asia since the 1980s. The CMIP6 simulations have addressed three critical issues identified in CMIP5: (1) the simulated global burned area being less than half of that of the observations, (2) the failure to reproduce the high burned area fraction observed in Africa, and (3) the weak fire seasonal variability. Furthermore, the CMIP6 models exhibit improved accuracy in capturing the observed relationship between fires and both climatic and socioeconomic drivers and better align with the historical long-term trends indicated by charcoal-based reconstructions in most regions worldwide. However, the CMIP6 models still fail to reproduce the decline in global burned area and fire carbon emissions observed over the past 2 decades, mainly attributed to an underestimation of anthropogenic fire suppression, and the spring peak in fires in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, mainly due to an underestimation of crop fires. In addition, the model underestimates the fire sensitivity to wet–dry conditions, indicating the need to improve fuel wet-ness estimation. Based on these findings, we present specific guidance for fire scheme development and suggest a postprocessing methodology for using CMIP6 multi-model outputs to generate reliable fire projection products.

Wildfire, Earth system models↗