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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2025

A Multivariate Space‐Time Dynamic Model for Characterizing the Atmospheric Impacts Following the Mt. Pinatubo Eruption

The June 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption resulted in a massive increase of sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere, absorbing radiation and leading to global changes in surface and stratospheric temperatures. A volcanic eruption of this magnitude serves as a natural analog for stratospheric aerosol injection, a proposed solar radiation modification method to combat a warming climate. The impacts of such an event are multifaceted and region-specific. Our goal is to characterize the multivariate and dynamic nature of the atmospheric impacts following the Mt. Pinatubo eruption. We developed a multivariate space-time dynamic linear model to understand the full extent of the spatially- and temporally-varying impacts. Specifically, spatial variation is modeled using a flexible set of basis functions for which the basis coefficients are allowed to vary in time through a vector autoregressive (VAR) structure. This novel model is cast in a Dynamic Linear Model (DLM) framework and estimated via a customized MCMC approach. We demonstrate how the model quantifies the relationships between key atmospheric parameters prior to and following the Mt. Pinatubo eruption with reanalysis data from MERRA-2 and highlight when such a model is advantageous over univariate models.

Dynamic Linear Model↗

DOE OSTI2023

Dynamic Modeling of a Solar-To-Hydrogen Flexible High Temperature Steam Electrolysis Plant

Sustainble hydrogen production for use as a renewable combustible fuel and clean chemical feedstock is an important objective as the world moves towards a renewable energy future. High temperature steam electrolysis is a promising hydrogen production technology due to its reduced electric input that is offset by heat input into steam generation and steam superheating. An option to provide this heat is to use concentrating solar thermal technology that can sustainably provide heat input while renewable electricity is used for the electrolysis reaction. In this work, a solar-to-hydrogen high temperature steam electrolysis plant is designed and dynamically modeled, showing continuous hydrogen production by utilizing supplemental heating and efficient recuperative heating from the electrolysis product streams. Through this design, over 90% of the required heat input for the process can by met by a combination of solar and recuperative heat. Additionally, the plant can flexibility operate by ramping down hydrogen production and through flexible heat integration, which intelligently integrates solar heat based on solar conditions. Smooth operation with flexible hydrogen production is demonstrated which decreases electrical input during on-peak grid times and also decreases the total supplemental heat load over the course of a day from 26.1% to 24.5%. In addition, by using flexible heat integration, the plant can increase its solar heat usage by 4.1% relative to a base case. Both options for flexibility show efficient use of solar thermal energy to sustainably and continuously produce hydrogen.

Immonen, Jake (ORCID:0000000341231625)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic Model of Active Front-End Converters with 2DOF-PI Controllers for DC Bus Voltage Control

In most of the research, a conventional one degree-of-freedom type proportional-integral controller (1DOF-PI) is used for the regulation of the dc bus voltage in an Active Front-End Converter (AFEC). This paper proposes a two degree-of-freedom type proportional-integral controller (2DOF-PI) for the regulation of dc bus voltage in an AFEC. Such a controller eliminates the left-half plane (LHP) zero in the command-to-output transfer function for dc bus voltage regulation that is inherent to the conventional 1DOF-PI for this application. The dynamic model of an AFEC in the synchronous reference frame (SRF) is presented. An inner current control and outer dc voltage control loop is built for controlling the AFEC. Vector-control scheme is employed to achieve decoupled control of direct-axis and quadrature-axis currents. The outer dc voltage control loop is designed with a 2DOF-PI to complete the control system. Transfer function (TF) of the controller is derived based on the presented model and used to calculate the controller gains. Transient and steady state performance of the designed controllers are investigated in MATLAB/Simulink and results presented.

Thapa, Anup↗

DOE OSTI2025

Towards an Introspective Dynamic Model of Globally Distributed Computing Infrastructures

Large-scale scientific collaborations like ATLAS, Belle II, CMS, DUNE, and others involve hundreds of research institutes and thousands of researchers spread across the globe. These experiments generate petabytes of data, with volumes soon expected to reach exabytes. Consequently, there is a growing need for computation, including structured data processing from raw data to consumer-ready derived data, extensive Monte Carlo simulation campaigns, and a wide range of end-user analysis. To manage these computational and storage demands, centralized workflow and data management systems are implemented. However, decisions regarding data placement and payload allocation are often made disjointly and via heuristic means. A significant obstacle in adopting more effective heuristic or AI-driven solutions is the absence of a quick and reliable introspective dynamic model to evaluate and refine alternative approaches. In this study, we aim to develop such an interactive system using real-world data. By examining job execution records from the PanDA workflow management system, we have pinpointed key performance indicators such as queuing time, error rate, and the extent of remote data access. The dataset includes five months of activity. Additionally, we are creating a generative AI model to simulate time series of payloads, which incorporate visible features like category, event count, and submitting group, as well as hidden features like the total computational load—derived from existing PanDA records and computing site capabilities. These hidden features, which are not visible to job allocators, whether heuristic or AI-driven, influence factors such as queuing times and data movement.

kilic, Ozgur Ozan [Brookhaven National Laboratory ↗

DOE OSTI2022

Computational fluid dynamic modeling to determine the indoor environment of an electron-ion collider service building

The design for the Electron-Ion Collider (EIC) calls for several service buildings that house various power supplies and control electronics for the collider ring itself. In order to operate within specified conditions, the ambient air entering the power supplies needs to be within a certain temperature range while dissipating the heat from losses. Proper cooling is therefore a necessity in the service buildings to ensure that every aspect of the EIC works as intended. Since the EIC is in the design stage, we are evaluating the indoor environment of the service building using the current design specifications. We have researched multiple forms of literature and performed the necessary calculations to compile a list of boundary conditions that accurately represent the situation at hand. We are using computational fluid dynamics modeling to solve the conservation equations for mass, momentum, and energy (Navier-Stokes). This allows us to perform a finite element analysis which will give us the flow distribution in the room as well as temperature profiles throughout the building. We have obtained a simulation result giving us the temperature profiles for the building and it shows that the placement of the racks and supply vents are essential to obtaining an even temperature distribution. This model will provide a basis for design decisions which will affect the overall cooling of the service building without extending the schedule and avoiding a costly reworking of the cooling system.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

A study on computational fluid dynamics modeling of a refrigerated container for COVID-19 vaccine distribution with experimental validation

A key issue with the distribution of vaccines to prevent COVID-19 is the temperature level required during transport, storage, and distribution. Typical refrigerated transport containers can provide a temperature-controlled environment down to -30 °C. However, the Pfizer vaccine must be carefully transported and stored under a lower temperature between -80 °C and -60 °C. One way to provide the required temperature is to pack the vaccine vials into small packages containing dry ice. Dry ice sublimates from a solid to a gas, which limits the allowable transport duration. This can be mitigated by transporting in a -30 °C refrigerated container. Moreover, because the dry ice will sublimate and thereby release CO 2 gas into the transport container, monitoring the CO 2 concentration within the refrigerated container is also essential. In the present work, a 3D computational fluid dynamics model was developed based on a commercially available refrigerated container and validated with experimental data. The airflow, temperature distribution, and CO 2 concentration within the container were obtained from the simulations. The modeling results can provide guidance on preparing experimental setups, thus saving time and lowering cost, and also provide insight into safety precautions needed to avoid hazardous conditions associated with the release of CO 2 during vaccine distribution.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dynamic Modeling, Trajectory Optimization, and Linear Control of Cable-Driven Parallel Robots for Automated Panelized Building Retrofits

The construction industry faces a growing need for automation to reduce costs, improve accuracy and productivity, and address labor shortages. One area that stands to benefit significantly from automation is panelized prefabricated building envelope retrofits, which can improve a building’s energy efficiency in heating and cooling interior spaces. In this paper, we propose using cable-driven parallel robots (CDPRs), which can effectively lift and handle large objects, to install these panels. However, implementing CDPRs presents significant challenges because of their nonlinear dynamics, complex trajectory planning, and precise control requirements. To tackle these challenges, this work focuses on a new application of established control and trajectory optimization theories in a CDPR simulation of a building envelope retrofit under real-world conditions. We first model the dynamics of CDPRs, highlighting the critical role of damping in system behavior. Building on this dynamic model, we formulate a trajectory optimization problem to generate feasible and efficient motion plans for the robot under operational and environmental constraints. Given the high precision required in the construction industry, accurately tracking the optimized trajectory is essential. However, challenges such as partial observability and external vibrations complicate this task. To address these issues, a Linear Quadratic Gaussian control framework is applied, enabling the robot to track the optimized trajectories with precision. Simulation results show that the proposed controller enables precise end effector positioning with errors under 4 mm, even in the presence of external wind disturbances. Through comprehensive simulations, our approach allows for an in-depth exploration of the system’s nonlinear dynamics, trajectory optimization, and control strategies under controlled yet highly realistic conditions. The results demonstrate the feasibility of CDPRs for automating panel installation and provide insights into their practical deployment.

CDPR↗

DOE OSTI2025

Computational Fluid Dynamics Modeling to Facilitate Qualification of Stack Sampling Probe Location

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling was used to help evaluate modifications to a radiological effluent stack and assist with establishing a stack sampling location that met the mixing criteria for qualification. Requirements for stack sampling location are listed in the American National Standards Institute/Health Physics Society (ANSI/HPS) N13.1-2021 standard. Modeling was performed to help develop a suitable design for increasing building ventilation for the radiological effluent stack. The ANSI/HPS N13.1-2021 criteria for the air monitoring probe location are that the coefficient of variation of velocity uniformity, gaseous tracer uniformity, and particulate tracer uniformity must be less than or equal to 20%. Furthermore, no point in the sampling location may have a gaseous tracer concentration that varies from the mean concentration by more than 30%. Additionally, the flow angle at the sampling location must not be more than 20 degrees. The ANSI/HPS N13.1-2021 standard allows for models (physical or computational) to be employed to perform the full suite of qualification tests, followed by a more limited set of verification tests on the actual stack to qualify the stack sampling location. Here, a series of computational model simulations were employed to evaluate the stack qualification criteria. Significant time and re-source savings are achieved using CFD modeling. CFD modeling demonstrated that the stack meets the criteria at the sample probe location. Verification tests were performed on the modified stack to measure the velocity uniformity and flow angle at the stack sampling location, and results demonstrated that the CFD model results may be used to support the qualification of the stack sampling location.

Air Monitoring↗

DOE OSTI2023

Building thermal dynamics modeling with deep transfer learning using a large residential smart thermostat dataset

Understanding thermal dynamics and obtaining the computational model of residential buildings enable its scaled application in energy retrofits, control optimization and decarbonization. In this paper, we present a deep learning approach to model building thermal dynamics with smart thermostat data collected from residential buildings, with the goal to investigate model generalizability. In the first stage, we developed and compared different Deep Learning architectures including Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models and CNN-LSTM to predict indoor air temperature in a multi-step time horizon. In the second stage, we implemented a Transfer Learning (TL) process, which aims to improve the prediction performance on a new set of buildings (targets), exploiting the knowledge of related or similar buildings (sources). Different TL strategies and source model identification methods were investigated. The study showed that the CNN-LSTM performed the best among the architectures compared, with an average Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.26 °C for one-hour-ahead (twelve 5-min future steps) predictions. Furthermore, the results showed that freezing the LSTM layer and fine-tuning the other layers of the CNN-LSTM achieved the best performance among four TL strategies, which further improved the performance with respect to a machine learning approach by 10%, and proving the effectiveness and generalizability of the proposed approach. A comparison of three different source model identification methods showed that randomly selecting source models constrained by similar building characteristics can provide good TL performance while retaining simplicity comparing with other quantitative source identification methods.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

2020 Multiscale Microbial Dynamics Modeling Course

The 2020 Multiscale Microbial Dynamics course is adapted from the virtual 2020 Mutliscale Microbial Dynamics Summer School that was hosted by Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL), a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) science user facility located on the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) campus, in collaboration with the Joint Genome Institute (JGI) and the DOE Systems Biology Knowledgebase (KBase). The course course covers how to incorporate microbial metagenomic and environmental metabolite data from watershed ecosystems into metabolic and community modeling using computational frameworks, such as KBase and PFLOTRAN. The curriculum includes lectures and software and data analysis tutorials. All materials are freely accessible to the community as part of the 2020 Microbial Dynamics Summer School Organization in KBase.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Novel use of Direct Simulation Monte-Carlo to Model Dynamics of COVID-19 Pandemic Spread

In this report, we evaluate a novel method for modeling the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. In this new approach we leverage methods and algorithms developed for fully-kinetic plasma physics simulations using Particle-In-Cell (PIC) Direct Simulation Monte-Carlo (DSMC) models. This approach then leverages Sandia-unique simulation capabilities, and High-Performance Computer (HPC) resources and expertise in particle-particle interactions using stochastic processes. Our hypothesis is that this approach would provide a more efficient platform with assumptions based on physical data that would then enable the user to assess the impact of mitigation strategies and forecast different phases of infection. This work addresses key scientific questions related to the assumptions this new approach must make to model the interactions of people using algorithms typically used for modeling particle interactions in physics codes (kinetic plasma, gas dynamics). The model developed uses rational/physical inputs while also providing critical insight; the results could serve as inputs to, or alternatives for, existing models. The model work presented was developed over a four-week time frame, thus far showing promising results and many ways in which this model/approach could be improved. This work is aimed at providing a proof-of-concept for this new pandemic modeling approach, which could have an immediate impact on the COVID-19 pandemic modeling, while laying a basis to model future pandemic scenarios in a manner that is timely and efficient. Additionally, this new approach provides new visualization tools to help epidemiologists comprehend and articulate the spread of this and other pandemics as well as a more general tool to determine key parameters needed in order to better predict pandemic modeling in the future. In the report we describe our model for pandemic modeling, apply this model to COVID-19 data for New York City (NYC), assess model sensitivities to different inputs and parameters and , finally, propagate the model forward under different conditions to assess the effects of mitigation and associated timing. Finally, our approach will help understand the role of asymptomatic cases, and could be extended to elucidate the role of recovered individuals in the second round of the infection, which is currently being ignored.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Typology for Characterizing Human Action in MultiSector Dynamics Models

The role of individual and collective human agency is increasingly recognized as a prominent and arguably paramount determinant in shaping the behavior, trajectory, and vulnerability of multisector systems. This human influence operates at multiple scales: from short-term (hourly to daily) to long-term (annually to centennial) timescales, and from the local to the global, pushing systems towards either desirable or undesirable outcomes. However, the effort to represent human systems in multisector models has been fragmented across philosophical, methodological, and disciplinary lines. To cohere insights across diverse modeling approaches, we present a new typology for classifying how human actors are represented in the broad suite of coupled human-natural system models that are applied in MultiSector Dynamics (MSD) research. The typology conceptualizes a “sector” as a system-of-systems that includes a diverse group of human actors, defined across individual to collective social levels, involved in governing, provisioning, and utilizing products, goods, or services towards some human end. We trace the salient features of modeled representations of human systems by organizing the typology around three key questions: 1) Who are the modeled actors in MSD systems? 2) What are their modeled actions? 3) How and for what purpose are these actors and actions operationalized in a computational model? The typology is used to critically examine existing models and chart the frontier of future human systems modeling for MSD research.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data‐driven variational method for discrepancy modeling: Dynamics with small‐strain nonlinear elasticity and viscoelasticity

Abstract The effective inclusion of a priori knowledge when embedding known data in physics‐based models of dynamical systems can ensure that the reconstructed model respects physical principles, while simultaneously improving the accuracy of the solution in the previously unseen regions of state space. This paper presents a physics‐constrained data‐driven discrepancy modeling method that variationally embeds known data in the modeling framework. The hierarchical structure of the method yields fine scale variational equations that facilitate the derivation of residuals which are comprised of the first‐principles theory and sensor‐based data from the dynamical system. The embedding of the sensor data via residual terms leads to discrepancy‐informed closure models that yield a method which is driven not only by boundary and initial conditions, but also by measurements that are taken at only a few observation points in the target system. Specifically, the data‐embedding term serves as residual‐based least‐squares loss function, thus retaining variational consistency. Another important relation arises from the interpretation of the stabilization tensor as a kernel function, thereby incorporating a priori knowledge of the problem and adding computational intelligence to the modeling framework. Numerical test cases show that when known data is taken into account, the data driven variational (DDV) method can correctly predict the system response in the presence of several types of discrepancies. Specifically, the damped solution and correct energy time histories are recovered by including known data in the undamped situation. Morlet wavelet analyses reveal that the surrogate problem with embedded data recovers the fundamental frequency band of the target system. The enhanced stability and accuracy of the DDV method is manifested via reconstructed displacement and velocity fields that yield time histories of strain and kinetic energies which match the target systems. The proposed DDV method also serves as a procedure for restoring eigenvalues and eigenvectors of a deficient dynamical system when known data is taken into account, as shown in the numerical test cases presented here.

Masud, Arif↗

DOE OSTI2025

From disorganized data to emergent dynamic models: Questionnaires to partial differential equations

Starting with sets of disorganized observations of spatially varying and temporally evolving systems, obtained at different (also disorganized) sets of parameters, we demonstrate the data-driven derivation of parameter dependent, evolutionary partial differential equation (PDE) models capable of generating the data. This tensor type of data is reminiscent of shuffled (multidimensional) puzzle tiles. The independent variables for the evolution equations (their “space” and “time”) as well as their effective parameters are all emergent , i.e. determined in a data-driven way from our disorganized observations of behavior in them. We use a diffusion map based questionnaire approach to build a smooth parametrization of our emergent space/time/parameter space for the data. This approach iteratively processes the data by successively observing them on the “space,” the “time” and the “parameter” axes of a tensor. Once the data become organized, we use machine learning (here, neural networks) to approximate the operators governing the evolution equations in this emergent space. Our illustrative examples are based (i) on a simple advection–diffusion model; (ii) on a previously developed vertex-plus-signaling model of Drosophila embryonic development; and (iii) on two complex dynamic network models (one neuronal and one coupled oscillator model) for which no obvious smooth embedding geometry is known a priori. This allows us to discuss features of the process like symmetry breaking, translational invariance, and autonomousness of the emergent PDE model, as well as its interpretability.

generative models↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bridging material models across scales: An integrated approach to equation of state and molecular dynamics modeling of copper

New uncertainty-aware equation of state (EOS) and electrical conductivity (EC) models for copper have been developed. The multiphase EOS/EC models are fit to experimental solid/liquid EC isobar measurements as well as density-functional theory molecular dynamics (DFT-MD) EC calculations in both expanded and compressed regimes (0.1–16 g/ cm 3 ⁠). The liquid and solid EOS phases were fit to available experimental data along with additional DFT-MD data over the same range as the EC. Leveraging the DFT-MD data, a corresponding machine-learned interatomic potential (MLIAP) for copper was trained using genetic-algorithm optimization. The copper MLIAP was constrained by EOS shock points at high compressions. The final EOS bounded MLIAP proves to be stable over a large density range (approximately 0.1–20 g/ cm 3 ) with good agreement to an isothermal compression curve, shock Hugoniot, and liquid speed of sound measurements at high pressures (100s of GPa).

Acoustic measurements and instrumentation↗

DOE OSTI2022

Reducing opioid use disorder and overdose deaths in the United States: A dynamic modeling analysis

Opioid overdose deaths remain a major public health crisis. We used a system dynamics simulation model of the U.S. opioid-using population age 12 and older to explore the impacts of 11 strategies on the prevalence of opioid use disorder (OUD) and fatal opioid overdoses from 2022 to 2032. These strategies spanned opioid misuse and OUD prevention, buprenorphine capacity, recovery support, and overdose harm reduction. By 2032, three strategies saved the most lives: (i) reducing the risk of opioid overdose involving fentanyl use, which may be achieved through fentanyl-focused harm reduction services; (ii) increasing naloxone distribution to people who use opioids; and (iii) recovery support for people in remission, which reduced deaths by reducing OUD. Increasing buprenorphine providers’ capacity to treat more people decreased fatal overdose, but only in the short term. Our analysis provides insight into the kinds of multifaceted approaches needed to save lives.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Development of a coarse-grained molecular dynamics model for poly(dimethyl- co -diphenyl)siloxane

Polydimethylsiloxane is an important polymeric material with a wide range of applications. However, environmental effects like low temperature can induce crystallization in this material with resulting changes in its structural and dynamic properties. The incorporation of phenyl-siloxane components, e.g., as in a poly(dimethyl-co-diphenyl)siloxane random copolymer, is known to suppress such crystallization. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations can be a powerful tool to understand such effects in atomistic detail. Unfortunately, all-atomistic molecular dynamics (AAMD) is limited in both spatial dimensions and simulation times it can probe. Here, to overcome such constraints and to extend to more useful length- and time-scales, we systematically develop a coarse-grained molecular dynamics (CGMD) model for the poly(dimethyl-co-diphenyl)siloxane system with bonded and non-bonded interactions determined from all-atomistic simulations by the iterative Boltzmann inversion (IBI) method. Additionally, we propose a lever rule that can be useful to generate non-bonded potentials for such systems without reference to the all-atomistic ground truth. Our model captures the structural and dynamic properties of the copolymer material with quantitative accuracy and is useful to study long-time dynamics of highly-entangled systems, sequence-dependent properties, phase behaviour, etc.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

An open source fast fluid dynamics model for data center thermal management

Although computational fluid dynamics (CFD) has been widely adopted to improve data center thermal management, the high computational demand limits its applications, such as multivariate optimal design and operation. Fast fluid dynamics (FFD), which has been applied for fast airflow simulation, shows great potential. However, few research applied FFD for optimal design and operation of data center thermal management. This research improves the FFD model for data centers and conducts a comprehensive evaluation and demonstration. First, the FFD model is improved by solving the advection and diffusion equations together using an upwind scheme instead of a semi-Lagrangian advection solver in the conventional FFD model. Second, new features for data centers are added, such as a pressure correction method to simulate plenum airflow and dynamic boundary conditions for IT racks. The new FFD model is first validated with two indoor environment cases and the results show that the new FFD model has slightly better overall prediction accuracy and faster speed compared to the conventional FFD model. It is also observed that both FFD models achieve acceptable accuracy, except for a few localized disparities with experimental data, which might be due to simplified handling of turbulence viscosity near the boundaries. Furthermore, validation with a real data center shows that the FFD model achieves a similar level of accuracy as CFD when compared to the experimental measurements with some level of uncertainties. It is then demonstrated for data center optimal design and operation, which saves 53.4–58.8% of annual energy while still meeting the thermal requirements. In conclusion, with a much faster speed and comparable accuracy compared to CFD, the FFD model parallelized on a graphics processing unit is promising for practical model-based data center early design and operation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗