Results for “Driver Behavior” — Page 5

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Particle Interaction Physics Model Formulation for Plume-Surface Interaction Erosion and Cratering

As part of the Game Changing Development (GCD) Program, funded by NASA’s Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD), the development of simulation capability for the prediction of extra-terrestrial Plume Surface Interaction (PSI) environments has been undertaken by the Fluid Dynamics Branch at NASA/MSFC. The Predictive Simulation Capability (PSC) Element is focused on creating simulation capability for the reliable and accurate prediction of PSI in Martian (~650 Pa) and Lunar (vacuum) ambient environments. In addition to the predictive simulation capability, the GCD Program also contains a companion Ground Testing Element for development of focused datasets for validation of predictive capability as well as a Flight-focused Instrumentation Element. This paper will present the status of implementing and maturing particle-particle interaction constituent physics models essential in simulating the landing surface granular material flow under PSI effects. This gas-particle multi-phase interaction modeling of plume impingement flow on the extra-terrestrial soil material is performed with the Gas-Granular Flow Solver (GGFS) addressed in a companion paper. The response of regolith particle flow induced by lander PSI requires accurate representation of the regolith granular material fluidic behavior and gas-granular interactions. The lunar regolith, as the extreme example, is poorly sorted with broad particle size distributions and large fines content. It has significant cohesion, due to interlocking particle shapes for the very jagged particles. The combination of particle shape and size distribution has been identified as major drivers in the complex particle flow response and resulting crater shape characteristics of extraterrestrial granular material. Constituent models for spherical particles can be formulated directly from particle kinetics theory. Complex particle shapes can be modeled by gluing together elemental spherical shapes into composite particles, requiring a Discrete Element Model (DEM) particle kinetics modeling approach to extract data and formulate constituent models. Mixture constituent models for poly-disperse mixtures (i.e, containing distribution of particle sizes) have recently been developed. The required non-spherical particle mixture granular material response closure models are then obtained through small-scale unit physics DEM simulations for the range of particle shapes, mixtures and packing densities. The granular material response closure models are then implemented in the Eulerian granular flow formulation. This DEM-based constituent model extraction process and formulation of poly-disperse particle mixtures has been successfully developed by small business and academic partners in the development of the Gas-Granular Flow Solver (GGFS) simulation program simulation framework. The currently implemented capabilities have reached the capability level of modeling bi-disperse, non-spherical particle mixtures is being continuously extended towards computational modeling of full range irregular particle mixtures. Under the GCD project, this technology is being further developed, transferred to NASA analysts, and matured towards application readiness. The predictive simulation capability team under the GCD project has acquired the modeling tools and processes of the DEM based constituent model formulation from the GGFS development team and is developing the capability to replicate the existing process. This is the first important step towards the ability of the NASA team to independently perform such model development in a production setting. Further efforts are underway to migrate the DEM based model simulation process performed with the academic based tools to more capable Open Source, highly parallelized simulation tools for efficient operation on NASA HPC assets. Evaluation of the currently implemented (such as mono-disperse and bi-disperse spherical and irregular shape particle constituent model applications) and continuously evolving full-range particle physics models in the GGFS tool is performed by the NASA team to advance application readiness of the simulations. Application testing for complex PSI erosions and cratering scenarios such as the Apollo LM is performed for axi-symmetric and full 3D simulations to aid the tool developers in achieving practical application readiness for NASA projects. Important validation and application testing will further be performed against experimental data generated under the GCD PSI project experimental component.

Peter A Liever↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Monodisperse Single-Material Granular Tribocharging Modeling and Experimental Validation

Charge transfer between insulating grains has been a topic of interest for many years as this phenomenon is extremely important to many areas in industry. Of particular interest to NASA is the behavior of electrically insulative dust grains such as those found on the lunar surface. Whether poured from a scoop during sample collection activities, agitated inside a drum via mining robots, or fluidized by a gas plume, particle-particle interactions between similar granular materials will be widespread on the Moon. Designers hope to have a predictive model for how dust grains are charged, transported, and deposited on flight systems to better understand issues electrostatics may cause in future missions. While difference in work function is often seen as a driver for charge transfer between two materials, this is an incomplete representation for insulative particles. Other asymmetries in the system can also lead to charge being transferred: one such being the difference between static vs dynamic particles. Experiments performed under vacuum in the Electrostatics and Surface Physics Laboratory (ESPL) clearly show that particles having more contacts with other particles tend to charge positively and particles having fewer contacts tend to charge negatively, despite being made from the same material. During these experiments, monodisperse (population of single diameter) spherical particles were held in a reservoir which was then elevated at one end to slope into a Faraday cup used to measure bulk charge of the grains. Care was taken to limit the number of spheres bouncing out of the cup, to isolate the beads from the container itself so that only grain-to-grain interactions occurred, and to assure neutrality of the beads before the experiment began. A discrete element method (DEM) modeling package already incorporating many granular mechanics interactions was augmented to include the electrostatic behaviors seen in experiments. The model can reproduce the experimental results above by tracking the number of contacts between pairs of individual grains and applying a charge transfer condition related to this contact parameter. The experimental results as well as their incorporation into the improved modeling suite will be discussed. Future work includes adding additional asymmetries into the experiments/model such as polydisperse populations of spherical particles and irregularly shaped grains.

granular↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Monodisperse Single-Material Granular Tribocharging Modeling and Experimental Validation

Charge transfer between insulating grains has been a topic of interest for many years as this phenomenon is extremely important to many areas in industry. Of particular interest to NASA is the behavior of electrically insulative dust grains such as those found on the lunar surface. Whether poured from a scoop during sample collection activities, agitated inside a drum via mining robots, or fluidized by a gas plume, particle-particle interactions between similar granular materials will be widespread on the Moon. Designers hope to have a predictive model for how dust grains are charged, transported, and deposited on flight systems to better understand issues electrostatics may cause in future missions. While difference in work function is often seen as a driver for charge transfer between two materials, this is an incomplete representation for insulative particles. Other asymmetries in the system can also lead to charge being transferred: one such being the difference between static vs dynamic particles. Experiments performed under vacuum in the Electrostatics and Surface Physics Laboratory (ESPL) clearly show that particles having more contacts with other particles tend to charge positively and particles having fewer contacts tend to charge negatively, despite being made from the same material. During these experiments, monodisperse (population of single diameter) spherical particles were held in a reservoir which was then elevated at one end to slope into a Faraday cup used to measure bulk charge of the grains. Care was taken to limit the number of spheres bouncing out of the cup, to isolate the beads from the container itself so that only grain-to-grain interactions occurred, and to assure neutrality of the beads before the experiment began. A discrete element method (DEM) modeling package already incorporating many granular mechanics interactions was augmented to include the electrostatic behaviors seen in experiments. The model can reproduce the experimental results above by tracking the number of contacts between pairs of individual grains and applying a charge transfer condition related to this contact parameter. The experimental results as well as their incorporation into the improved modeling suite will be discussed. Future work includes adding additional asymmetries into the experiments/model such as polydisperse populations of spherical particles and irregularly shaped grains.

electrostatics↗

NASA NTRS2011

A Transfer of Training Study of Control Loader Dynamics

The control inceptor used in a simulated vehicle is an important part in maintaining the fidelity of a simulation. The force feedback provided by the control inceptor gives the operator important cues to maintain adequate performance. The dynamics of a control inceptor are typically based on a second order spring mass damper system with damping, force gradient, breakout force, and natural frequency parameters. Changing these parameters can have a great effect on pilot or driver control of the vehicle. The neuromuscular system has a very important role in manipulating the control inceptor within a vehicle. Many studies by McRuer, Aponso, and Hess have dealt with modeling the neuromuscular system and quantifying the effects of a high fidelity control loader as compared to a low fidelity control loader. Humans are adaptive in nature and their control behavior changes based on different control loader dynamics. Humans will change their control behavior to maintain tracking bandwidth and minimize tracking error. This paper reports on a quasi-transfer of training experiment which was performed at the NASA Langley Research Center. The quasi transfer of training study used a high fidelity control loader and a low fidelity control loader. Subjects trained in both simulations and then were transferred to the high fidelity control loader simulation. The parameters for the high fidelity control loader were determined from the literature. The low fidelity control loader parameters were found through testing of a simple computer joystick. A disturbance compensatory task is employed. The compensatory task involves implementing a simple horizon out the window display. A disturbance consisting of a sum of sines is used. The task consists of the subject compensating for the disturbance on the roll angle of the aircraft. The vehicle dynamics are represented as 1/s and 1/s2. The subject will try to maintain level flight throughout the experiment. The subjects consist of non-pilots to remove any effects of pilot experience. First, this paper discusses the implementation of the disturbance compensation task. Second, the high and low fidelity parameters used within the experiment are presented. Finally, an explanation of results from the experiments is presented.

Cardullo, Frank M.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Refinement and application of acoustic impulse technique to study nozzle transmission characteristics

An improved acoustic impulse technique was developed and was used to study the transmission characteristics of duct/nozzle systems. To accomplish the above objective, various problems associated with the existing spark-discharge impulse technique were first studied. These included (1) the nonlinear behavior of high intensity pulses, (2) the contamination of the signal with flow noise, (3) low signal-to-noise ratio at high exhaust velocities, and (4) the inability to control or shape the signal generated by the source, specially when multiple spark points were used as the source. The first step to resolve these problems was the replacement of the spark-discharge source with electroacoustic driver(s). These included (1) synthesizing on acoustic impulse with acoustic driver(s) to control and shape the output signal, (2) time domain signal averaging to remove flow noise from the contaminated signal, (3) signal editing to remove unwanted portions of the time history, (4) spectral averaging, and (5) numerical smoothing. The acoustic power measurement technique was improved by taking multiple induct measurements and by a modal decomposition process to account for the contribution of higher order modes in the power computation. The improved acoustic impulse technique was then validated by comparing the results derived by an impedance tube method. The mechanism of acoustic power loss, that occurs when sound is transmitted through nozzle terminations, was investigated. Finally, the refined impulse technique was applied to obtain more accurate results for the acoustic transmission characteristics of a conical nozzle and a multi-lobe multi-tube supressor nozzle.

Salikuddin, M.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Interpretation of Vehicle Tumbling Predictions from 6-DOF Entry and Descent Simulation

Blunt body entry vehicles are subject to dynamic instability during terminal descent. This often manifests as limit cycle oscillations in total angle of attack, but can diverge into tumbling behavior under certain conditions. For the Mars Sample Return Earth Entry Vehicle (MSR EEV), there is a constraint on the orientation of the sample tubes so backward impact is impermissible. Past missions have chosen to deploy parachutes to preclude tumbling, but active events after release of MSR EEV have been ground-ruled out with the intent to maximize system reliability. Prevention of tumbling during subsonic descent is a design driver for MSR EEV. During preliminary design of the MSR EEV, six degree-of-freedom numerical simulations indicated an unacceptably high probability of tumbling for a 60degree sphere-cone forebody geometry, which necessitated a design change. Decreasing the forebody angle was expected to improve dynamic stability, but would also adversely impact mass, aeroheating, and manufacturing risk. Hence there was strong motivation to understand the physical drivers for the onset of tumbling, and to determine: (a) whether the causes of tumbling are representative of physically realizable vehicle entry configurations and (b) what changes can be made to existing design and analysis practices to ensure a stable vehicle.

Entry Vehicle↗

NASA NTRS2005

A Note on the Relationship of Temperature and Water Vapor over Oceans, as well as the Sea Surface Temperature Impact

This note follows up on a recent study by Shie et al. (2005) and extends the investigation of the domain-averaged moisture-temperature (Q-T) relationship from the Tropics (i.e., the previous study) to the tropical Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans. The Q and T data examined in this study are obtained from the GEOS-3 [Goddard Earth Observing System Version-3] global re-analysis monthly products. Similar to what was found earlier in the Tropics, Q is also found to increase with T over the entire oceanic region; however, Q increases faster with T over oceans than over the Tropics. The Q-T distribution for the Tropics is in a quasi-linear relationship, which is embedded in a global Q-T distribution that is, however, in a more complex curvilinear relationship. The Q-T distribution over the oceanic regions seems to fall within the lower bound (ie., the relatively colder and driver regime) of the tropical Q-T distribution. T over oceans is also found increasing with SST (sea surface temperature), which seemingly implies that an air mass might have gained heat more readily from a warmer ocean as compared to a colder ocean. Q is also found to increase with SST in a manner that quantitatively resembles an earlier finding by Stevens (1990). We also found that relative humidity exhibits similar behaviors for oceanic and tropical regions, respectively, i.e., it increases with both SST and T over oceans and increases with T in the Tropics (Shie et al. 2005). All these similar features found between oceanic and tropical regions seem to inform us that oceans occupy most of the Tropics and so play a key role in determining what have happened in the Tropics.

Shie, C.-L.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Understanding High Recession Rates of Carbon Ablators Seen in Shear Tests in an Arc Jet

High rates of recession in arc jet shear tests of Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) inspired a series of tests and analysis on FiberForm (a carbon preform used in the fabrication of PICA). Arc jet tests were performed on FiberForm in both air and pure nitrogen for stagnation and shear configurations. The nitrogen tests showed little or no recession, while the air tests of FiberForm showed recession rates similar to that of PICA (when adjusted for the difference in density). While mechanical erosion can not be ruled out, this is the first step in doing so. Analysis using a carbon oxidation boundary condition within DPLR was used to predict the recession rate of FiberForm. The analysis indicates that much of the anomalous recession behavior seen in shear tests may simply be an artifact of the non-flight like test configuration (copper upstream of the test article) a result of dissimilar enthalpy and oxygen concentration profiles on the copper. Shape change effects were also investigated and shown to be relatively small.

Driver, David M.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Solar Probe thermal shield design and testing

This paper discusses the major thermal shield subsystem development activities in support of the Solar Probe study being conducted at JPL. The Solar Probe spacecraft will travel to within 4 solar radii of the sun's center to perform fundamental experiments in space physics. Exposure to 2900 earth suns at perihelion requires the spacecraft to be protected within the shadow envelope of a protective shield. In addition, the mass loss rate off of the shield at elevated temperature must comply with plasma instrument requirements and has become the driver of the shield design. This paper will focus on the analytical design work to size the shield and control the shield mass loss rate for the various spacecraft options under study, the application of carbon-carbon materials for shield components, development and preparation of carbon-carbon samples for materials testing, and a materials testing program for carbon-carbon and tungsten alloys to investigate thermal/optical properties, mass loss (carbon-carbon only), material integrity, and high velocity impact behavior.

Millard, Jerry M.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Loss of Water from Saturn's E-Ring Through Ion Pick-Up

One of the possible loss processes for Saturn s E-ring is ionization followed by acceleration by the electric field associated with the corotating magnetized plasma. It is possible to determine if this process is occurring by detecting electromagnetic waves at the gyrofrequency of water group ions. If the energy the particle gains in this pick-up process is sufficiently great, the picked up ions will generate ion cyclotron waves. Pioneer 11 and Voyager 1 both observed intervals of such waves associated with water group ions during their passes through Saturn s E-ring. Presently the magnetometer onboard the Cassini spacecraft is also seeing water group ion cyclotron oscillations. The Cassini data allow the spatial and temporal behavior of the waves to be mapped in ways not possible during the previous flybys. Analyses of these waves allow us to study the rate of mass loading and its latitudinal and local time variation. In conjunction with previous data, we can then determine the variation as the inclination of the ring to the Sun changes, in accordance with Saturn's seasons. These waves may be the clue to how Saturn powers its magnetosphere as the newly born ions could be the driver for the radial motion of the plasma and to how the E-ring may play the equivalent role to that of Io in the jovian magnetosphere.

Leisner, J. S.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Extreme Wet and Dry Conditions Affected Differently by Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols

Global warming due to greenhouse gases and atmospheric aerosols alter precipitation rates, but the influence on extreme precipitation by aerosols relative to greenhouse gases is still not well known. Here we use the simulations from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project that enable us to compare changes in mean and extreme precipitation due to greenhouse gases with those due to black carbon and sulfate aerosols, using indicators for dry extremes as well as for moderate and very extreme precipitation. Generally, we find that the more extreme a precipitation event is, the more pronounced is its response relative to global mean surface temperature change, both for aerosol and greenhouse gas changes. Black carbon (BC) stands out with distinct behavior and large differences between individual models. Dry days become more frequent with BC-induced warming compared to greenhouse gases, but so does the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation. An increase in sulfate aerosols cools the surface and thereby the atmosphere, and thus induces a reduction in precipitation with a stronger effect on extreme than on mean precipitation. A better understanding and representation of these processes in models will provide knowledge for developing strategies for both climate change and air pollution mitigation.

Sillmann, Jana↗

NASA NTRS2015

Relativistic Electron Response to the Combined Magnetospheric Impact of a Coronal Mass Ejection Overlapping with a High-Speed Stream: Van Allen Probes Observations

During early November 2013, the magnetosphere experienced concurrent driving by a coronal mass ejection (CME) during an ongoing high-speed stream (HSS) event. The relativistic electron response to these two kinds of drivers, i.e., HSS and CME, is typically different, with the former often leading to a slower buildup of electrons at larger radial distances, while the latter energizing electrons rapidly with flux enhancements occurring closer to the Earth. We present a detailed analysis of the relativistic electron response including radial profiles of phase space density as observed by both Magnetic Electron and Ion Sensor (MagEIS) and Relativistic Electron Proton Telescope instruments on the Van Allen Probes mission. Data from the MagEIS instrument establish the behavior of lower energy (<1 MeV) electrons which span both intermediary and seed populations during electron energization. Measurements characterizing the plasma waves and magnetospheric electric and magnetic fields during this period are obtained by the Electric and Magnetic Field Instrument Suite and Integrated Science instrument on board Van Allen Probes, Search Coil Magnetometer and Flux Gate Magnetometer instruments on board Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms, and the low-altitude Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites. These observations suggest that during this time period, both radial transport and local in situ processes are involved in the energization of electrons. The energization attributable to radial diffusion is most clearly evident for the lower energy (<1 MeV) electrons, while the effects of in situ energization by interaction of chorus waves are prominent in the higher-energy electrons.

Magnetosphere↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advanced Diagnostics for Megahertz Imaging of Mixing, Fuel Spray, and Combustion Processes for Rotating Detonation Combustors

Recent advancements in megahertz rate, high-power, burst-mode laser technology are leveraged to perform and explore imaging measurements that spatially and temporally resolve the mixing, combustion, and detonation flow field in two laboratory-scale rotating detonation combustors (RDCs). In a non-premixed annular RDC, multiple imaging diagnostics are explored to investigate gaseous and liquid injector behavior, the detonation wave structure, and the propellant refill. In one instance, OH planar laser-induced fluorescence (OH-PLIF) imaging is performed up to a 2 MHz repetition rate to track the combustion products and reaction zone locations. In the same annular RDC, a single liquid fuel jet is injected, and laser-based 355-nm imaging of the fuel spray is performed up to a 1 MHz repetition rate. For this configuration, the annular RDC is used as a detonation driver to impose periodic detonation waves to interact with the fuel spray. Moreover, in this annular RDC, a range of tracer-based laser imaging measurements are explored to time-resolve the unsteady oxidizer air recovery and refill process. In a non-premixed linear RDC, planar imaging measurements of the fuel mixing are performed up to a 200 kHz repetition rate using PLIF of a tracer in the fuel supply. The fuel mixing imaging helps explain the origin of the observed pre and post wave burning, detonation structure, and enables quantifying injector recovery timescales. This paper will provide a high-level broad survey of diagnostics applied in these RDCs, lessons learned, and interesting observations.

Combustion↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advanced Diagnostics For Megahertz Imaging Of Mixing, Fuel Spray, And Combustion Processes For Rotating Detonation Combustors

Recent advancements in megahertz rate, high-power, burst-mode laser technology are leveraged to perform and explore imaging measurements that spatially and temporally resolve the mixing, combustion, and detonation flow field in two laboratory-scale rotating detonation combustors (RDCs). In a non-premixed annular RDC, multiple imaging diagnostics are explored to investigate gaseous and liquid injector behavior, the detonation wave structure, and the propellant refill. In one instance, OH planar laser-induced fluorescence (OH-PLIF) imaging is performed up to a 2 MHz repetition rate to track the combustion products and reaction zone locations. In the same annular RDC, a single liquid fuel jet is injected, and laser-based 355-nm imaging of the fuel spray is performed up to a 1 MHz repetition rate. For this configuration, the annular RDC is used as a detonation driver to impose periodic detonation waves to interact with the fuel spray. Moreover, in this annular RDC, a range of tracer-based laser imaging measurements are explored to time-resolve the unsteady oxidizer air recovery and refill process. In a non-premixed linear RDC, planar imaging measurements of the fuel mixing are performed up to a 200 kHz repetition rate using PLIF of a tracer in the fuel supply. The fuel mixing imaging helps explain the origin of the observed pre and post wave burning, detonation structure, and enables quantifying injector recovery timescales. This paper will provide a high-level broad survey of diagnostics applied in these RDCs, lessons learned, and interesting observations.

Combustion↗

NASA NTRS2016

Temporal Characteristics and Energy Deposition of Pulsating Auroral Patches

We present a careful statistical analysis of pulsating aurora (PA) using all-sky green line (557.7 nm) images obtained at 3.3 Hz. Six well-defined individual PA patches are identified and extracted using a contouring technique. Quantitative parameters such as the patch duration (on-time and off-time), peak intensity, and integrated intensity are determined for each patch and each pulsation. The resulting characteristics serve as strict observational constraints that any of the many competing theories attempting to explain PA must predict. The purpose of this paper is to determine the characteristics of PA patches in order to provide better observational constraints on the suggested mechanisms. All aspects of the temporal behavior of the individual patches appear to be erratic. Historically, PA has been defined very loosely and we argue that the use of the term pulsating is inappropriate since our findings and other published results are not regularly periodic and thus a more appropriate term may be fluctuating aurora. Further, we find that the observational constraints do not fit well with the flow cyclotron maser theory, which in particular is suggested to create PA patches. There is no clear candidate of the suggested mechanisms and drivers to explain the observational constraints set by the PA patches in a satisfactory manner.

Humberset, B. K.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Global Sensitivity Analyses for Test Planning with Black-Box Models for Mars Sample Return

This work describes sensitivity analyses performed on complex black-box models used to support experimental test planning under limited resources in the context of the Mars Sample Return program, which aims at bringing to Earth rock and atmospheric samples from Mars. We develop a systematic workflow that allows the analysts to simultaneously obtain quantitative insights on key drivers of uncertainty, on the direction of impact, and the presence of interactions. We apply novel optimal transport-based global sensitivity measures to tackle the multivariate nature of the output. On the modeling side, we apply multi-fidelity techniques that leverage low-fidelity models to speed up the calculations and make up for the limited amount of high-fidelity samples, while keeping these in the loop for accuracy guarantees. The sensitivity analysis reveals insights useful for the analysts to understand the model's behavior and identify the factors to focus on during testing in order to maximize the value of information extracted from them to ensure mission success when limited resources are available.

Giuseppe Cataldo↗

NASA NTRS1991

Structural reliability methods: Code development status

The Probabilistic Structures Analysis Method (PSAM) program integrates state of the art probabilistic algorithms with structural analysis methods in order to quantify the behavior of Space Shuttle Main Engine structures subject to uncertain loadings, boundary conditions, material parameters, and geometric conditions. An advanced, efficient probabilistic structural analysis software program, NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) was developed as a deliverable. NESSUS contains a number of integrated software components to perform probabilistic analysis of complex structures. A nonlinear finite element module NESSUS/FEM is used to model the structure and obtain structural sensitivities. Some of the capabilities of NESSUS/FEM are shown. A Fast Probability Integration module NESSUS/FPI estimates the probability given the structural sensitivities. A driver module, PFEM, couples the FEM and FPI. NESSUS, version 5.0, addresses component reliability, resistance, and risk.

Millwater, Harry R.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Trade Studies of Space Launch Architectures using Modular Probabilistic Risk Analysis

A top-down risk assessment in the early phases of space exploration architecture development can provide understanding and intuition of the potential risks associated with new designs and technologies. In this approach, risk analysts draw from their past experience and the heritage of similar existing systems as a source for reliability data. This top-down approach captures the complex interactions of the risk driving parts of the integrated system without requiring detailed knowledge of the parts themselves, which is often unavailable in the early design stages. Traditional probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) technologies, however, suffer several drawbacks that limit their timely application to complex technology development programs. The most restrictive of these is a dependence on static planning scenarios, expressed through fault and event trees. Fault trees incorporating comprehensive mission scenarios are routinely constructed for complex space systems, and several commercial software products are available for evaluating fault statistics. These static representations cannot capture the dynamic behavior of system failures without substantial modification of the initial tree. Consequently, the development of dynamic models using fault tree analysis has been an active area of research in recent years. This paper discusses the implementation and demonstration of dynamic, modular scenario modeling for integration of subsystem fault evaluation modules using the Space Architecture Failure Evaluation (SAFE) tool. SAFE is a C++ code that was originally developed to support NASA s Space Launch Initiative. It provides a flexible framework for system architecture definition and trade studies. SAFE supports extensible modeling of dynamic, time-dependent risk drivers of the system and functions at the level of fidelity for which design and failure data exists. The approach is scalable, allowing inclusion of additional information as detailed data becomes available. The tool performs a Monte Carlo analysis to provide statistical estimates. Example results of an architecture system reliability study are summarized for an exploration system concept using heritage data from liquid-fueled expendable Saturn V/Apollo launch vehicles.

Mathias, Donovan L.↗