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Topics addressed include: assessment models; model predictions of ozone changes; ozone and temperature trends; trace gas effects on climate; kinetics and photchemical data base; spectroscopic data base (infrared to microwave); instrument intercomparisons and assessments; and monthly mean distribution of ozone and temperature.
The Big Adaptive Rotor (BAR) Project looks at potential innovative pathways for future land-based wind turbine technology. BAR is led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and is sponsored by the Wind Energy Technology Office of the US Department of Energy. This talk will describe innovations and challenges faced by the teams working on BAR. The innovations include numerical models predicting the stability and performance of highly flexible blades, downwind rotors to maximize wind farm power, and controlled bending of 100-meter-long blades during rail transport. The challenges of developing predictive numerical models and formulating successful value propositions supporting new technologies such as distributed aero control devices will also be discussed.
The present account of the Programmable Multizone Furnace numerical model uses various examples to illustrate the ways in which the model serves as an optimization, test, prediction, and visualization tool; a numerical PID-control algorithm obtains the desired sample temperature distributions and allows the model to solve an inverse heat transfer problem where the desired sample temperature profile is the input and the required heater power distribution is the output of numerical simulations. Parametric studies show how the total power consumption of the furnace is affected by such design variables as the conductivity.
Distribution networks are changing from passive absorbers of electric energy to active distribution networks (ADNs) capable of operating and participating in electricity markets. In the context of residential microgrids, which is a type of ADNs, aggregated home heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) loads present a key opportunity to drive operational and economic objectives, facilitate high renewable energy penetration, and enhance both system resiliency and flexibility. A robust, hierarchical dispatch scheme is developed and presented in this paper, which connects an upper level multi-phase distribution optimal power flow (DOPF) to a lower level model predictive control (MPC)-based HVAC fleet controller. The approach is tested and verified on a modified IEEE 13 bus system in an intraday market application. The results demonstrate that the proposed hierarchical dispatch scheme is able to drive both economic and operational objectives for the ADN operator.
We report home energy management systems (HEMS) have been shown to reduce energy bills and to provide grid services including peak demand reduction and demand flexibility. However, uncertainty in residential energy systems is a significant issue and can reduce the benefits of a HEMS to the homeowner or grid operator. Sources of uncertainty include weather forecasts, predictions of energy-related occupant activities (e.g., hot water draws), and parameter estimation for the building envelope and energy-consuming equipment. This paper tackles the problem of uncertainty by developing a framework that simulates HEMS in uncertain conditions and evaluates the performance of multiple control strategies. A linear, reduced-order residential building model for model predictive control applications is derived and compared to a full-order model. Stochastic model predictive control is shown to perform better than deterministic and heuristic methods when considering realistic forecasts with uncertainty. The framework can evaluate the performance of HEMS in real-world applications, which can help de-risk HEMS deployment.
The connection of more loads and distributed energy resources (DERs) to the distribution power system brings both challenges and opportunities to system operators. There are opportunities to aggregate flexible loads and DERs to provide transmission grid services, but the coordinated actions of DERs being managed by independent, third-party DER aggregators to support transmission system operations can present challenges. We developed a federated DER management architecture and control framework that aims to manage heterogeneous DERs to deliver reliable transmission grid services while respecting distribution system constraints. The controls include stochastic day-ahead optimization, model predictive control, and a simple real-time management scheme. We present simulation results obtained from a realistic laboratory test bed of federated controls managing DERs within a substation service area to make the substation net power follow the optimal net power determined by the day-ahead optimization based on cost and limiting reverse power flow.
The CyDER project aimed at developing an open-source, modular and scalable co-simulation platform for power grids with large shares of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs). The project partners are the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab (LBNL), Lawrence Livermore National Lab (LLNL), PG&E, SolarCity, and ChargePoint. The prime recipient is LBNL; SolarCity and ChargePoint were partners for the project’s first two years. Increased DER integration introduces a number of challenges in power grid operation including a more dynamic interaction between the transmission grid and distribution grids, and increased modeling complexity. Although specialized software exists to precisely model different components of the power system, it is far from trivial to integrate all various models and perform a holistic simulation. Instead of replicating all models in a common simulation program, a commonly accepted approach to tackle this model diversity is to couple third-party simulators and models through a co-simulation platform that coordinates information exchange among the various components. Following this line of research, this project’s objective was to develop a co-simulation platform based on a widely accepted industrial standard called Functional Mockup Interface (FMI). Within this process, the project developed models compliant with the FMI standard, called Functional Mockup Units (FMUs), and used them to perform various operational and planning power system analyses. Relying and building upon an industrial standard is the main differentiation of this project compared with previous or parallel efforts in the co-simulation area. Particular emphasis was put on delivering software utilities to facilitate setting up and running co-simulations by end-users. Furthermore, a strong aspect of this project is demonstrating that co-simulation techniques can be used to perform Hardware-in-the-Loop (HIL) simulations that couple software components (e.g., simulated models) with hardware components (e.g., real devices such PV systems and batteries). The long-term goal of CyDER project is to help establish FMI as a powerful standard for co-simulation and promote adoption by electric utilities and other interested stakeholders. The main accomplishments of the project include the development of several FMUs including distribution and transmission grid models, PV inverters with Volt/Var/Watt controllers, batteries, and predictive optimal controllers. Additionally, a unique software package was developed, called SimulatorToFMU, which is capable of exporting any Python-driven simulator or Python script as an FMU. This is an important contribution towards establishing FMI as one of the main co-simulation standards, because more and more third-party programs for sub-system modeling and simulation are delivered with Python APIs. The CyDER platform was used to perform PV hosting capacity analyses in real utility feeders with and without smart inverter controls, battery storage, and EV charging. Smart inverter controls include conventional Volt/Var/Watt controls for reactive power support and active power curtailment, but also predictive controls that optimize the charging and discharging profile of the battery connected on the DC side in order to minimize the customer’s economic benefit. Finally, an important result of this project is delivering an experimental setup that consists of residential-scale PV inverters with battery storage, a real-time grid simulator with an ideal voltage source as grid emulator, and micro Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs). All these components and additional software modules are coupled to one another using the FMI standard and can be co-simulated with the CyDER platform.
Conventional physics-based modeling is a time-consuming bottleneck in control design for complex nonlinear systems like autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs). In contrast, purely data-driven models, require a large number of observations and lack operational guarantees for safety-critical systems. Data-driven models leveraging available partially characterized dynamics have potential to provide reliable systems models in a typical data-limited scenario for high value complex systems, thereby avoiding months of expensive expert modeling time. In this work we explore this middle-ground between expert-modeled and pure data-driven modeling. We present control-oriented parametric models with varying levels of domain-awareness that exploit known system structure and prior physics knowledge to create constrained deep neural dynamical system models. We employ universal differential equations to construct data-driven blackbox and graybox representations of the AUV dynamics. In addition, we explore a hybrid formulation that explicitly models the residual error related to imperfect graybox models. We compare the prediction performance of the learned models for different distributions of initial conditions and control inputs to assess their suitability for control.
Due to climate change, extreme weather events are occurring more frequently and with increasing impact. This trend poses a significant challenge for distribution system operators (DSO) to ensure that there is uninterrupted power supply to critical loads in their networks. To embed resilience into DSO's decision-making, resilience needs to be first quantified and then integrated into the system-level optimization. Therefore, this paper first develops a novel self-organizing map (SOM) based method (called SomRes) to quantify the time-varying resilience index of a system that can leverage the powerful classification property of SOMs and removes some of the disadvantages of subjective weight assignment methods. Using SomRes, a resilient resource allocation and operational dispatch algorithm is further developed to enhance system resilience against extreme events by considering the SomRes resilience index directly as the feedback. Here, the proposed resilience quantification approach is benchmarked with a state-of-the-art approach and the efficacy of the proposed resilient dispatch algorithm is demonstrated through several deterministic and statistical case studies on the IEEE 123-bus distribution system. Simulation studies show that the proposed SomRes quantification method is an appropriate indicator of system resilience, and the resilient resource allocation and dispatch strategy can significantly reduce critical load shedding under varying event propagation scenarios.
This paper investigates the impact of load rejection over-voltage (LRO) from commercially available grid-tied photovoltaic (PV) solar inverters. LRO can occur when a local feeder or breaker opens and the power output from a distributed energy resource exceeds the load power. Simplified models of current controlled inverters can over-predict over-voltage magnitudes, thus it is useful to quantify testing. The load rejection event was replicated using a hardware testbed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), and a set of commercially available PV inverters was tested to quantify the impact of LRO for a range of generation-to-load ratios. The magnitude and duration of the over-voltage events are reported in this paper along with a discussion of characteristic inverter output behavior. The results for the inverters under test showed that maximum over-voltage magnitudes were less than 200 percent of nominal voltage, and much lower in many test cases. These research results are important because utilities that interconnect inverter-based DER need to understand their characteristics under abnormal grid conditions.
As occupancy sensing technologies become mature, various occupancy sensors are increasingly deployed in commercial buildings for pervasive occupancy monitoring. These sensors provide occupant-count data, which contains rich spatiotemporal information about occupancy patterns. With long-term occupant-count data collected from a commercial building, we design three different predictive models that capture the occupancy dynamics and examine how a model predictive control of the HVAC system benefits from actual occupancy count prediction. Our analysis reveals that mispredictions of occupancy states, especially false positives and false negatives, may introduce inefficient control that leads to energy waste or user discomfort. To address this issue, we take a step further to design an adaptive model predictive controller that minimizes inefficient control actions according to misprediction types and distributions. A comprehensive evaluation is performed in OpenBuild and EnergyPlus simulators to study the effectiveness of the proposed end-to-end control strategy. The evaluation shows that the proposed solution reduces energy consumption by 29.5% while improving the average weighted occupants comfort by 86.7% in Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) over the fixed schedule strategy.
This project studies an Internet of Things (IoT)-based comfort control and fault diagnostics system (referred as iComfort in this report) for energy-efficient homes. The system delivers an occupant-comfort-oriented thermal environment adaptive to fault scenarios and achieves HVAC energy savings in a cost-effective and straightforward way. This smart iComfort home system consists of the following key features. 1) Cost-effectiveness and scalability of the entire hardware and software system: The system includes low-cost temperature, humidity, and airflow sensors, and a Raspberry Pi-based local hub that interfaces with the cloud and IoT-enabled devices. The cost is low, not only for sensors, but also the costs associated with sensor installation, system setup and commissioning, data communication and storage, and data analytics (e.g., the development of automated fault detection and diagnosis (AFDD), as well as adaptive control strategies that are both computationally efficient and practical to implement). 2) Energy performance and user satisfaction: The system delivers user satisfaction and energy savings. This includes a) ease of use, b) optimal occupant thermal comfort, and c) accurate system feedback (e.g., low false alarm of AFDD strategies). 3) Favorable demonstrated prototype performance: The prototype tested at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) Lab Homes demonstrates the accuracy of fault detections and diagnoses and shows thermal comfort improvement and energy savings through adaptive and optimal HVAC operations.
In electric power systems, multiple entities are responsible for ensuring an economic and reliable way of delivering power from producers to consumers. With the increase of variable renewable generation it is becoming increasingly important to take advantage of the individual entities' (and their areas') capabilities for balancing variability. Hence, in this paper, we employ and extend the approximate Newton directions method to optimally coordinate control areas leveraging storage available in one area to balance variable resources in another area with only minimal information exchange among the areas. The problem to be decomposed is a model predictive control problem including generation constraints, energy storage constraints, and AC power flow constraints. Singularity issues encountered when formulating the respective Newton-Raphson steps due to intertemporal constraints are addressed and extensions to the original decomposition method are proposed to improve the convergence rate and required communication of the method.
Current methods for processing lignocellulosic biomass fail to take full advantage of the phenolic chemicals available in lignin, the third most common polymer on the planet. The complexity of the lignin polymer structure, the lack of knowledge of the mechanisms by which it breaks down, and the difficulties in predicting and controlling the reaction product distribution make improvement in processing methods challenging. The use of model compounds, which contain only a few key features of the native polymer, allow the reactivity of the overall polymer to be investigated more simply by isolating key elements. In our previous work, we examined the mechanism of acidolysis for two α-O-4 lignin model compounds, benzylphenyl ether (BPE) and 1-(phenoxyethyl)benzene (PEB). In the present work, we examine the rate-limiting step of this mechanism, a nucleophilic attack on the α-carbon commensurate with protonation of the ether oxygen, for other α-O-4 model compounds that contain features more reminiscent of native lignin, including compounds based on native model dimers. The effects of individual substituents and combinations of substituents are also examined in order to determine their contributions to the reactivity of native lignin dimers. Simple relationships are examined between ground-state properties and reactivity. The results of these calculations show that the effects of substituents on the reactivity of BPE-based compounds are quite different from those of PEB-based compounds. While reasonable correlations can be found for BPE reactivity and properties across substituents, PEB shows much less predictable reactivity except among small subsets of substituents. Overall, the trends observed here provide useful information about the reactivity of α-O-4 bonds in lignin during acidolysis as a function of the local chemical environment.
In this study, a heuristic dynamic programming controller is proposed to control a boost converter. Conventional controllers such as proportional-integral-derivative (PID) or proportional-integral (PI) are designed based on the linearized small-signal model near the operating point. Therefore, the performance of the controller during the start-up, the load change, or the input voltage variation is not optimal since the system model changes by varying the operating point. The heuristic dynamic programming controller optimally controls the boost converter by following the approximate dynamic programming. The advantage of the HDP is that the neural network-based characteristic of the proposed controller enables boost converters to easily cope with large disturbances. An HDP with a well-trained critic and action networks can perform as an optimal controller for the boost converter. To compare the effectiveness of the traditional PI-based and the HDP boost converter, the simulation results are provided.
Diagnosis and prognosis are necessary tasks for system reconfiguration and fault-adaptive control in complex systems. Diagnosis consists of detection, isolation and identification of faults, while prognosis consists of prediction of the remaining useful life of systems. This paper presents a novel integrated framework for model-based distributed diagnosis and prognosis, where system decomposition is used to enable the diagnosis and prognosis tasks to be performed in a distributed way. We show how different submodels can be automatically constructed to solve the local diagnosis and prognosis problems. We illustrate our approach using a simulated four-wheeled rover for different fault scenarios. Our experiments show that our approach correctly performs distributed fault diagnosis and prognosis in an efficient and robust manner.
Often, revenues from hydropower generation depend on the operator's ability to provide firm power in the presence of uncertain inflows. The primary options available for optimizing revenue are negotiation of a firm power contract before operations begin and adjustment of the reservoir release during operations. Contract and release strategy optimization are closely coupled and most appropriately analyzed with stochastic real-time control methods. Here we use an ensemble-based approach to stochastic optimization that provides a convenient way to construct nonparametric revenue probability distributions to explore the implications of uncertainty. The firm power contract is a simplified bilateral fixed price agreement that partially insulates operator and buyer from price fluctuations. The release control laws and firm energy target are jointly optimized to maximize the operator's expected revenue. Revenue probability distributions and related spill performance statistics indicate that predictive operating strategies such as stochastic dynamic programming and model predictive control can give significantly better performance than standard deterministic operating rules. The performance obtained from batch optimization with perfect inflow information establishes a convenient upper bound on potential revenue and provides a baseline for assessing the significance of differences between real-time operating strategies. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the benefits of predictive operational strategies are greatest for reservoirs with medium nondimensional residence times and less important for reservoirs with large residence times. Overall, probabilistic analysis of the coupled hydropower contract-operations problem provides a realistic way to assess revenue and risk for reservoirs that must provide firm power when inflows are uncertain.
A microgrid network is characterized by a high R/X ratio, making the voltage more sensitive to active power changes compared to bulk power systems, where the voltage is regulated primarily by reactive power. Due to its sensitivity, voltage control approaches for microgrids should also consider the active power input coupling, making it very different from conventional power systems. Additionally, as the energy costs associated with active and reactive powers are different and the operational conditions of microgrids connected to active distribution systems vary over time, the ideal controller to provide voltage support must be flexible enough to handle these technical and operational constraints. This paper proposes a model predictive control approach to provide dynamic voltage support using energy storage systems. This approach uses a simplified predictive model of the system to solve the model predictive control problem. By proper selection of model predictive control weighting parameters, the quality of service provided can be adjusted to achieve the desired performance. A simulation study in MATLAB/Simulink validates the proposed approach for the Cordova, Alaska microgrid. Results show that the performance of the voltage support can be adjusted depending on the choice of weight and constraints of the controller.