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Enabling machine learning-ready HPC ensembles with Merlin

With the growing complexity of computational and experimental facilities, many scientific researchers are turning to machine learning (ML) techniques to analyze large scale ensemble data. With complexities such as multi-component workflows, heterogeneous machine architectures, parallel file systems, and batch scheduling, care must be taken to facilitate this analysis in a high performance computing (HPC) environment. Here, we present Merlin, a workflow framework to enable large ML-friendly ensembles of scientific HPC simulations. By augmenting traditional HPC with distributed compute technologies, Merlin aims to lower the barrier for scientific subject matter experts to incorporate ML into their analysis. As a producer–consumer workflow model, Merlin enables multi-machine, cross-batch job, dynamically allocated yet persistent workflows capable of utilizing surge-compute resources. Key features of Merlin are a flexible HPC-centric interface, low per-task overhead, multi-tiered fault recovery, and a hierarchical sampling algorithm that allows for $\mathscr{O}$(N) task execution and $\mathscr{O}$(N ln N) task queuing to ensembles of millions of tasks. In addition to Merlin’s design, we test the algorithm’s performance in an HPC center and demonstrate the ability to enqueue 40 million simulations in 100 s, with a 30 millisecond per-task overhead that is independent of ensemble size. Finally, we describe some example applications that Merlin has enabled on leadership-class HPC resources, such as the ML-augmented optimization of nuclear fusion experiments and the calibration of infectious disease models to study the progression of and possible mitigation strategies for COVID-19.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Current and Projected Future Distribution of Plant Community Types for the Southern Seward Peninsula, Alaska

Landscape scale maps of plant community distribution at 5 m resolution were developed for southern Seward Peninsula. A Random Forest based environmental niche model was developed using topographic and climate data sets. Models were trained for the 2010-2019 period and applied to develop plant community distributions for contemporary (2010-2019) period. Trained model was applied to project the plant community distributions under future climate. Using downscaled projections for RCP8.5 scenario from five climate models (CCSM4, GFDL-CM3, GISS-E2-R, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MRI-CGCM3) and multi-model mean, a six member ensemble of plant community distribution were developed for current decade (2010-2019) and for future decades (2020-2029, 2030-2039, 2040-2049, 2050-2059). Contains *.tif and *.sh files. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dynamic Distribution of High-Rate Data Processing from CERN to Remote HPC Data Centers

The prompt reconstruction of the data recorded from the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) detectors has always been addressed by dedicated resources at the CERN Tier-0. Such workloads come in spikes due to the nature of the operation of the accelerator and in special high load occasions experiments have commissioned methods to distribute (spill-over) a fraction of the load to sites outside CERN. The present work demonstrates a new way of supporting the Tier-0 environment by provisioning resources elastically for such spilled-over workflows onto the Piz Daint Supercomputer at CSCS. Furthermore, this is implemented using containers, tuning the existing batch scheduler and reinforcing the scratch file system, while still using standard Grid middleware. ATLAS, CMS and CSCS have jointly run selected prompt data reconstruction on up to several thousand cores on Piz Daint into a shared environment, thereby probing the viability of the CSCS high performance computer site as on demand extension of the CERN Tier-0, which could play a role in addressing the future LHC computing challenges for the high luminosity LHC.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Independent Metadata Update VOL Connector for HDF5 (IMM VOL) v0.1

We have built a new framework that enables independent metadata updates within HDF5 files. Our framework includes the following components: an overlay network that's optimized for 1-to-All and All-to-All communication; root-less/server-less Bcast and AllReduce operations for reduced synchronization; a distributed consensus-making platform; an execution order keeping system, and a progress engine for generic threadless concurrence handling.

Li, Tonglin↗

Exploiting CRIC to streamline the configuration management of GlideinWMS factories for CMS support

GlideinWMS is a workload management and provisioning system that allows sharing computing resources distributed over independent sites. Based on the requests made by GlideinWMS frontends, a dynamically sized pool of resources is created by GlideinWMS pilot factories via pilot job submission to resource sites’ CEs. More than 400 CEs are currently serving more than ten virtual organizations through GlideinWMS, with CMS being the biggest user with 230 CEs. The complex configurations of the parameters defining resource requests, as submitted to those CEs, have been historically managed by manually editing a set of different XML files. New possibilities arise with CMS adopting the CRIC, an information system that collects, aggregates, stores, and exposes, among other things, computing resource data coming from various data providers. The paper will describe the challenges faced when CMS started to use CRIC to automatically generate the GlideinWMS factory configurations. The architecture of the prototype, and the ancillary tools developed to ease this transition, will be discussed. Finally, future plans and milestones will be outlined.

Dost, Jeffrey↗

Towards a NEAMS-based high-fidelity model of the MARVEL reactor

This report outlines the progress of Idaho National Laboratory in developing a high-fidelity and high-resolution model of the Microreactor Applications Research Validation and Evaluation reactor. The model was developed under the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation microreactor application driver at Idaho National Laboratory. The overarching objective of this activity is the development of a high-fidelity multiphysics MARVEL model using NEAMS tools, and to verify and validate NEAMS tools against MARVEL reference simulation and experimental data, respectively. This is a unique opportunity to conduct multiphysics analysis on a soon-to-be-deployed microreactor. This multiphysics model developed under the NEAMS-funded INL microreactor application driver leverages three single-physics models coupled via the MOOSE’s MultiApp and Transfer systems. The latter systems enable in-memory data transfer between MOOSE-based and MOOSE-wrapped applications. The first single-physics model, that functions as main application, leverages Griffin to model the neutron transport in the core through the discontinuous finite element (DFEM) discrete ordinates solver (SN). Several optimization flags that were developed by the Griffin developer team were beta-tested to enhance the solver’s performance. These include the combined use of using_average_xs and update_averaged_xs_on that enable to avoid expensive on-the-fly cross sections evaluations at each linear iterations in favor of evaluations of the macroscopic cross sections at each Picard iteration. The second single-physics model uses BISON to handle solid heat transfer and asymptotic hydrogen redistribution analysis in the fuel. While the model returns consistent results for the temperature and hydrogen distribution in the fuel, a mismatch was noticed in the calculated temperature in the reflector due to the value of the gap conductance used in our model. Ongoing investigations are being performed to assess the origin of this discrepancy. Finally, the System Analysis Module (SAM) was used to model the flow of the sodium-potassium eutectic in the primary loop. A first verification was also performed showing good agreement in terms of mass flow rate and inlet temperature. All mesh files were generated using the MOOSE Reactor module, removing the need for external meshing tools. Notably, this workscope represents one of the initial applications of the MOOSE Reactor module for modeling highly irregular geometries. The use of the reactor module significantly streamlined the mesh generation process. The full multiphysics mode, that combines all the single physics models, was leveraged to conduct initial steady-state multiphysics simulations to compute power, and temperature distribution in the reactor. Initial testing was performed for transient simulations as well. In this case, the new checkpoint restart capability for eigenvalue calculations was tested showing the capability for streamlined restart of transient calculations. Future work will focus on improving the fidelity of the model by performing comprehensive code-to-code comparisons. For instance, the full-core Griffin neutronics model will be benchmarked against MCNP reference results, that were provided by the MARVEL design team. Additionally, the SAM T/H model will be verified against reference RELAP-5 results for selected accident scenarios. Besides code-to-code verification exercises, the model fidelity will be improved by replacing the single-channel SAM model with a more complex SAM-Pronghorn coupled model, in which the sub-channel capability is deployed to obtain radial temperature resolution in the coolant. This model will be developed in synergy with the NEAMS thermal hydraulics team.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Topographical Controls on Hillslope-Scale Hydrology Drive Shrub Distributions on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska: Modeling Archive

The dataset is a model output used in a study that examined the role topography plays in determining shrub expansion by applying a coupled transect version of a mechanistic ecosystem model (ecosys) in a tundra hillslope site in the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. The study highlights the importance of mechanistically representing hillslope-scale coupled surface and sub-surface hydrology to accurately predict current plant distributions and future trajectories in Arctic ecosystems. The dataset contain ecosys model outputs used in a study: Article Title - Topographical Controls on Hillslope-Scale Hydrology Drive Shrub Distributions on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. It includes the data files (ten *.csv files) used in creating figures in the publication and three *.pdf files (user guide and two Supplementary Information documents).The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

TuckerMPI: A Parallel C++/MPI Software Package for Large-scale Data Compression via the Tucker Tensor Decomposition

With this study, our goal is compression of massive-scale grid-structured data, such as the multi-terabyte output of a high-fidelity computational simulation. For such data sets, we have developed a new software package called TuckerMPI, a parallel C++/MPI software package for compressing distributed data. The approach is based on treating the data as a tensor, i.e., a multidimensional array, and computing its truncated Tucker decomposition, a higher-order analogue to the truncated singular value decomposition of a matrix. The result is a low-rank approximation of the original tensor-structured data. Compression efficiency is achieved by detecting latent global structure within the data, which we contrast to most compression methods that are focused on local structure. In this work, we describe TuckerMPI, our implementation of the truncated Tucker decomposition, including details of the data distribution and in-memory layouts, the parallel and serial implementations of the key kernels, and analysis of the storage, communication, and computational costs. We test the software on 4.5 and 6.7 terabyte data sets distributed across 100 s of nodes (1,000 s of MPI processes), achieving compression ratios between 100 and 200,000×, which equates to 99--99.999% compression (depending on the desired accuracy) in substantially less time than it would take to even read the same dataset from a parallel file system. Moreover, we show that our method also allows for reconstruction of partial or down-sampled data on a single node, without a parallel computer so long as the reconstructed portion is small enough to fit on a single machine, e.g., in the instance of reconstructing/visualizing a single down-sampled time step or computing summary statistics. The code is available at https://gitlab.com/tensors/TuckerMPI.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A model-independent data assimilation (MIDA) module and its applications in ecology

Abstract. Models are an important tool to predict Earth system dynamics. An accurate prediction of future states of ecosystems depends on not only model structures but also parameterizations. Model parameters can be constrained by data assimilation. However, applications of data assimilation to ecology are restricted by highly technical requirements such as model-dependent coding. To alleviate this technical burden, we developed a model-independent data assimilation (MIDA) module. MIDA works in three steps including data preparation, execution of data assimilation, and visualization. The first step prepares prior ranges of parameter values, a defined number of iterations, and directory paths to access files of observations and models. The execution step calibrates parameter values to best fit the observations and estimates the parameter posterior distributions. The final step automatically visualizes the calibration performance and posterior distributions. MIDA is model independent, and modelers can use MIDA for an accurate and efficient data assimilation in a simple and interactive way without modification of their original models. We applied MIDA to four types of ecological models: the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model, a surrogate-based energy exascale earth system model: the land component (ELM), nine phenological models and a stand-alone biome ecological strategy simulator (BiomeE). The applications indicate that MIDA can effectively solve data assimilation problems for different ecological models. Additionally, the easy implementation and model-independent feature of MIDA breaks the technical barrier of applications of data–model fusion in ecology. MIDA facilitates the assimilation of various observations into models for uncertainty reduction in ecological modeling and forecasting.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Orthoimagery and Shapefiles Documenting Pre- and Post-August 2019 Slope Disturbances, Teller Road Site, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2018-2019

This dataset was derived from UAS aerial photos and dGPS data collected at the Teller mile marker 47 site in 2018 and 2019 and used to support research quantifying the timing and rate of surface movements and analyze soil transport process in Arctic landscapes. In July 2018, a Phantom uncrewed aerial system (UAS) collected >6800 high resolution aerial photos of the lower portion of the Teller 47 watershed (see for raw photos; pending archive NGA281). During the UAS survey, 25 x 25 cm tile ground control points (GCPs) were laid out and secured with one rebar rod in the center. The four corners and rebar tops were surveyed with differential GPS, and these coordinates were used to construct and validate an orthomosaic of the site. These points were resurveyed in August 2019 and used to track annual movement. Changes in position between the two surveys are reported in (Lathrop et al. 2022; NGA254). Agisoft Metashape photogrammetry software was used to construct a georeferenced orthomosaic image (*.tif file) of a portion (0.68 km2) of the watershed with a final resolution of ~1 cm. Manual delineation of the perimeters of failures visible in the UAS imagery (*.tif files) was conducted to create shapefile polygons (two *.zip files). The failures were identified by the exposure of bare mineral soils, which were made visible by disruption of the overlying tundra vegetation. The shapefiles were then used to analyse the topographic distribution and sizes of the failures. In August 2019 an additional ~300 georeferenced UAS images of slope instability features were collected (data pending submission) and compared with the 2018 orthomosaic. Overview maps of the failure locations included as a *.pdf.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Fission Matrix Processing Using the MCNP6.3 HDF5 Restart File

This paper describes an approach to interrogating the fission matrix available in the HDF5-formatted restart file (also known as the “runtape” file), which is produced by the upcoming public release of the MCNP R code, version 6.3. The fission matrix, its eigenvalues, and its eigenvectors, are important tools for characterizing fissile systems such as research and power reactors and for accelerating the convergence of the Monte Carlo fission-source site distribution.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Southwest Wind Power R&D Test Site Development at the National Wind Technology Center (CRADA CRD-12-00472 Final Report)

Southwest Windpower, Inc. (SWWP) has been designing and distributing small wind turbines for more than 22 years and is the recognized global leader in the design, manufacturing and distribution of small wind systems (400-3000 watts). The company has been a pioneer in the development of wind technology and has built and shipped more than 170,000 wind turbines to over 120 countries worldwide. Headquartered in Flagstaff AZ, SWWP has sales representatives in over 88 countries. Applications for SWWP systems include residential homes, commercial properties, micro grids, remote cabins, telecom transmitters, offshore platforms, water pumping and sailboats. In addition, U.S. Department of Defense uses SWWP’s products in Forward Operating Bases (FOB’s), USGS uses them for remote monitoring of glacier movements and the CIA uses them to provide power seismic monitoring. Today, SWWP plans development of new technologies to address distributed energy market needs and become even more aggressive in international markets. This strategy includes extensive Research, Development, Demonstration & Deployment (RDD&D) activities to improve existing production line into more simple, reliable, and cost-effective wind turbine systems. Important part of such activities is the field testing of the new systems, which should provide: (i) validation of the reliable operation of hardware and software; (ii) validation of numerical models of the system and its components; (iii) field comparison of various control and optimization strategies; (iv) customized reliability testing; (v) customized monitoring and analysis testing; and (vi) IEC certification testing (vii) filed demonstration of system performance and reliability. Such field testing facility should encompass multiple towers and appropriate data acquisition systems. SWWP is exploring to move part of the engineering department to Colorado, and execute its RDD&D strategies in this new location. Partnership with NREL will provide great insights into SWWP’s RDD&D processes and more efficient commercialization by utilizing NWTC as the field testing site, and working close with NREL personnel. NWTC is ideally suited to strain the design. NREL is very experienced with customized and IEC testing. During this project, Southwest Windpower aims to improve the value proposition of distributed renewable energy, and make it a competitive choice in the energy markets. As of today, more then 170,000 small wind turbines, manufactured in the U.S., are installed in more then 180 countries. With the improved value proposition, Southwest Windpower wants to create and address new market needs, substantially increase its sales domestically and internationally, which should have positive impact on the creation of American jobs, competitiveness of U.S. economy, export or U.S. products, and the use of renewable energy.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Large Scale Caching and Streaming of Training Data for Online Deep Learning

The training of deep neural network models on large data remains a difficult problem, despite progress towards scalable techniques. In particular, there is a mismatch between the random but predetermined order in which AI flows select training samples and the streaming I/O patterns for which traditional HPC data storage (e.g., parallel file systems) are designed. In addition, as more data are obtained, it is feasible neither simply to train learning models incrementally, due to catastrophic forgetting (i.e., bias towards new samples), nor to train frequently from scratch, due to prohibitive time and/or resource constraints. In this paper, we study data management techniques that combine caching and streaming with rehearsal support in order to enable efficient access to training samples in both offline training and continual learning. We revisit state-of-art streaming approaches based on data pipelines that transparently handle prefetching, caching, shuffling, and data augmentation, and discuss the challenges and opportunities that arise when combining these methods with data-parallel training techniques. We also report on preliminary experiments that evaluate the I/O overheads involved in accessing the training samples from a parallel file system (PFS) under several concurrency scenarios, highlighting the impact of the PFS on the design of the data pipelines.

data pipelines↗

Groundwater and Surface Water Flow (GSFLOW) model files to explore bedrock circulation depth and porosity in Copper Creek, Colorado

This data package contains integrated hydrological model input and output files for Copper Creek, Colorado (24 km2), a tributary of the East River located in the headwaters of the Upper Colorado River Basin. The model code is the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Groundwater and Surface Water Flow (GSFLOW) model. The model contains a 100-m grid resolution and a daily timestep. The land surface model is dynamically linked to a three-dimensional groundwater flow model that allows for streamflow gaining and losing conditions. The groundwater model contains 12 model layers and extends 400 m below land surface. The original Copper Creek model was modified to contain geologic layers representing saprolite, shallow bedrock, and deep bedrock. Endmember depth versus hydraulic conductivity relationships and porosity values for fractured crystalline rock are simulated. For the shallow case, median flow depths occur in the shallow saprolite at depths <8 m, while the deep case promotes a median groundwater flow depth of 100 m. With this modeling framework we compare streamflow response to a plausible worst-case drought lasting up to five years. Streamflow metrics of analysis include average streamflow, fraction of stream network that is dry, no-flow duration, average groundwater flow to streams and time to recovery following the drought. Results and implications are presented in a paper submitted to Geophysical Research Letters titled, "The role of bedrock circulation depth and porosity in mountain streamflow response to prolonged drought" by Rosemary WH. Carroll, Andrew H. Manning and Kenneth H Williams. A Readme.txt file provides instructions on how to download all model files and execute each model scenario. In addition to the GSFLOW output/prms/copper_drought.csv file containing daily basin water stores and fluxes (refer to GSFLOW manual) and the output/prms/copper_drought_statvar.dat file with output defined in the gsflow3.control file (refer to GSFLOW Manual), output files also include spatially distributed daily values of total evapotranspiration, canopy evaporation, precipitation, snowfall, infiltration, snow water equivalent, potential evapotranspiration, recharge, sublimation, soil moisture, contributing interflow, water table elevations, changes in groundwater storage, groundwater evapotranspiration, interbasin groundwater flow (limited to the alluvium below the stream outlet), and surface-groundwater exchanges within the river system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dynamically Downscaled (WRF) 1km, Hourly Meteorological Conditions 1987-2020. East/Taylor Watersheds

This dataset contains meteorological output from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) version 3.8.1. This dataset has been created to 1) investigate hydrometeorological processes impacting the East River and water-delivery to the Critical Zone, and 2) provide meteorological forcing data for distributed Earth-science modeling applications in the East River watershed. Variables have a 1 kilometer spatial resolution and hourly temporal resolution and encompass a rectangular region encompassing the East and Taylor River watersheds, Colorado, near the town of Crested Butte. WRF was forced using Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) lateral boundary conditions. Each .zip file contains one "water year" of data (October 1 -- September 30; i.e. water year 2017 starts October 1, 2016 and ends September 30, 2017). Each zip folder contains 12 netcdf (.nc) files containing one month of hourly data each and are approximately 250mb. Model timestamps are in UTC time.The files contain the following data variables:EAST_MASK: binary mask of the watershed regionTAYLOR_MASK: binary mask of the watershed regionGLW downwelling longwave radiation (w/m2)HR_PRCP: Hourly Precipitation Rate (mm/hr). Includes all hydrometeors (solid+liquid). HFX NoahMP LSM total grid-cell modelled sensible heat flux (w/m2) [positive towards atmosphere]LH NoahMP LSM total grid-cell modelled latent heat flux (w/m2) [positive towards atmosphere; can be converted to ET]PSFC Surface Barometric Pressure (hPa)Q2 Two-meter specific humidity (kg/kg)SWDOWN Downwelling shortwave solar radiation (w/m2)SWNORM Terrain-normal downwelling shortwave radiation (w/m2)T2 Two-meter air temperature (deg K)U10 10-m U-component of wind velocity (m/s)V10 10m V-component of wind velocity (m/s)XLAT Latitude of grid-center point XLONG Longitude of grid-center point XTIME Model timestamp, **in UTC**

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Snow distribution patterns revisited: A physics-based and machine learning hybrid approach to snow distribution mapping in the sub-Arctic Supporting Data

Snow in the Arctic and sub-Arctic is highly variable at fine scales, with deep drifts and shallow scoured areas creating a complex pattern of snow on the landscape. This fine-scale variation in snow is driven primarily by landscape and vegetation properties. Some landscape features, such as river beds, will rapidly fill in with snow during the wintertime due to high winds, while shrubs will trap blowing snow, resulting in drifts. Meanwhile, snow will blow off of exposed areas, resulting in abnormally shallow snow. These complex interactions between wind, vegetation, and terrain are difficult to represent well with physically-based models, but machine learning techniques have shown promise in the past. Here, we propose a hybrid modeling approach, where we use machine learning derived snow pattern maps to inform SnowModel, a physically-based snow process model. We develop and test this technique at the Teller 27 Seward Peninsula NGEE-Arctic study site. This dataset includes 5 *.nc files of model inputs and outputs plus one user guide (*.pdf). We present the data we use to drive SnowModel (vegetation type, digital elevation model), the snow pattern maps used to inform SnowModel (Standardized Depth Values maps, Machine Learning Snow Distribution Pattern), and our machine learning, SnowModel, and Hybrid snow depth and snow water equivalent results. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

MRP and NEAMS Meeting - Current Modeling to Support Experiments

Heat-pipe cooled micro-reactor is currently being actively investigated in the NS&T department at INL. Given the high operation temperature and large temperature gradients in the system, the induced thermal stresses need to be well analyzed and kept within the safety margin. Two commercial FEM software (ABAQUS and STAR-CCM+) have been proposed to simulate and compare for both the temperature and stress distributions for the single heat pipe experiments, with the middle single heat pipe and 6 heaters surrounded. This presentation file is aimed to provide the latest updates for the researchers who is under NEAMS program and involved with the DOE micro-reactor program

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Generation and validation of comprehensive synthetic weather histories using auto-regressive moving-average models

As energy system design moves to more complex methods of optimization including machine learning there is a significant need for more weather data than is available. One method to solve this is using synthetic data models such as the auto-regressive moving-average (ARMA) model which has been frequently utilized to create such data. This paper looks at extending the ARMA algorithm to generate solar components through the use of clearsky detrending, maintaining vector relationships and by leveraging physical relationships. The method for the creation of entirely synthetic weather data files including key weather variables for energy system analysis is presented. Furthermore, a detailed comparison of energy system simulations utilizing both real and synthetic data is made using NREL’s System Advisor Model. Whilst good agreement is made for the solar variables, and other weather variables, ARMA methods often fail to capture the standard deviation and skew of annual weather distributions. Vector-ARMA is shown to maintain correlations between variables and thus generate data sets that perform similarly in energy system design. Here, it is finally shown that the ARMA method fails to preserve day-today correlations in weather variables and thus over-predicts optimal energy storage by 21% for a residential solar application.

42 ENGINEERING↗