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DOE OSTI2024

Final Report on Predictive Analyses of PRD as Function of Anomalies

This report summarizes the work completed in FY-2024 to analyze the power reactivity decrement (PRD) concepts of the ARC-100 core. The PRD has been traditionally defined by the reactivity change from a hot zero power (HZP) to a particular power. Consequently, the PRD accounts for the core reactivity changes due to increase coolant temperature gradient axially and radially across the core, and increased fuel temperature. The coolant temperature gradient leads to sodium and structure density changes, to radial core expansion from assembly flowering and bowing (due to axial and radial temperature gradients within the assemblies), and to control rod driveline thermal expansion. The fuel temperature increase associated with coolant temperature and power increases leads to Doppler effect and axial thermal expansion. In this work, the normal operating Hot Full Power (HFP) state is the only power level of interest, so analyses focus on the PRD calculated from HZP to HFP. The PRD has been used to assess the reactor safety features asymptotically in unprotected accident scenarios, including the loss of heat sink (LOHS), loss of flow (LOF), and transient overpower (TOP) without scram. The PRD concept relies on the “global” reactivity coefficients A, B, and C that are estimated based on “individual” reactivity effects (Doppler, sodium density, etc.). The objectives of this work are: 1) to improve and verify the methodology used to calculate the ABC coefficients used in the PRD, 2) to assess if the PRD can be used to reliably identify abnormal events. This report fulfills the FY-2024 scope of WBS#1.15.8.3 activity, “ANL0120 – Predictive Analyses of PRD as function of deformation”. The PRD concept is described in Sections 2. Additional effort in refining the methodology for core bowing modeling is performed in Sections 3. Then, two verification exercises are proposed in Section 4 to benchmark these coefficients based on direct neutronic-only calculations and on dynamic core transient simulations. Finally, the PRD approach is assessed for the detection of several unexpected events, such as primary flow perturbation or improper fuel loading, in Section 5.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

NASA NTRS1988

Probabilistic system identification in the time domain

The objective of system identification is to determine reliable dynamical models of a structure by systematically using its measured excitation and response. It brings together in an integrated fashion, experimental, analytical, and computational techniques in structural dynamics. Areas of application for system identification include the following: (1) Model Evaluation--assessing assumptions (linearity and equivalent viscous damping) and techniques (finite-element modeling) used to construct theoretical models of a structure; (2) Model Improvement--updating of a theoretical model to enable more accurate response predictions for possible future loads on the structure, or for control of the structure; (3) Empirical Modelling--developing empirical relationships (nonlinear models) or empirical parameter values (modal damping) because the present state of the art does not provide theoretical results; and (4) Damage Detection and Assessment--continual or episodic updating of a structural model through vibration monitoring to detect and locate any structural damage. It can be argued that since the construction or modification of models using test data is subject to inherent uncertainties, the above problems should be properly treated within a Bayesian probabilistic framework. Such a methodology is presented which allows the precision of the estimates of the model parameters to be computed. It also leads to a guiding principle in applications. Namely, when selecting a single model from a given class of models, one should take the most probable model in the class based on the experimental data. Practical applications of this principle are given which are based on the utilization of measured seismic motions in large civil structures. Examples include the application of a computer program MODE-ID to identify modal properties directly from seismic excitation and response time histories from a nine-story steel-frame building at JPL and from a freeway overpass bridge.

Beck, James L.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Recent advances in radar remote sensing of forest

On a global scale, forests represent most of the terrestrial standing biomass (80 to 90 percent). Thus, natural and anthropogenic change in forest covers can have major impacts not only on local ecosystems but also on global hydrologic, climatic, and biogeochemical cycles that involve exchange of energy, water, carbon, and other elements between the earth and atmosphere. Quantitative information on the state and dynamics of forest ecosystems and their interactions with the global cycles appear necessary to understand how the earth works as a natural system. The information required includes the lateral and vertical distribution of forest cover, the estimates of standing biomass (woody and foliar volume), the phenological and environmental variations and disturbances (clearcutting, fires, flood), and the longer term variations following deforestation (regeneration, successional stages). To this end, seasonal, annual, and decadal information is necessary in order to separate the long term effects in the global ecosystem from short term seasonal and interannual variations. Optical remote sensing has been used until now to study the forest cover at local, regional, and global scales. Radar remote sensing, which provides recent SAR data from space on a regular basis, represents an unique means of consistently monitoring different time scales, at all latitudes and in any atmospheric conditions. Also, SAR data have shown the potential to detect several forest parameters that cannot be inferred from optical data. The differences--and complementarity--lie in the penetration capabilities of SAR data and their sensitivity to dielectric and geometric properties of the canopy volume, whereas optical data are sensitive to the chemical composition of the external foliar layer of the vegetation canopy.

Letoan, Thuy↗

NASA NTRS2019

Multi-Agency Annual Southeastern Beach Mouse Habitat Occupancy Monitoring

The southeastern beach mouse (Peromyscus polionotus niveiventris, hereafter SEBM), a federally threatened species was identified by Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge (MINWR) as one of the top five priorities for management. The Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Environmental Management Branch was asked to provide support in the form of population monitoring for SEBM on KSC and the surrounding properties. When we began the project, the SEBM was known to occupy sites ranging from Volusia through Brevard and Indian River Counties, but the exact distribution within the Federal lands encompassing the Cape Canaveral Barrier Island Complex (CCBIC) was not well known. The broad range of habitat conditions encompassing the species’ historical range and the diversity of sites historically known to contain SEBM required a landscape-scale approach for both monitoring the population and for investigating species habitat relationships. We designed a monitoring plan for the SEBM with the goal of estimating the habitat occupancy of beach mice annually each winter/spring throughout the entire area of suitable coastal habitat (approximately 72 km linear distance along the beach). Methods were tested in a 2008 pilot study, and during 2010-2018 we monitored the proportion of coastal habitat occupied by the SEBM on the CCBIC. Monitoring was focused on using dynamic habitat occupancy surveys with data collected with rapid assessment techniques (i.e., track tubes or live-traps) to detect SEBM occurrence at sampling stations. An important component of the study design was the use of repeated samples that provided the information needed to estimate detectability. Measuring detectability was required to account for the fact that surveys could fail to detect animals at sites at which they were actually present (Mackenzie et al., 2002). This monitoring framework is very flexible, allowing numerous hypothesis to be tested about how various factors influence beach mouse occupancy using habitat, geographic, and environmental covariates. Our survey has been the longest survey conducted for any of the seven extant beach mouse subspecies and has encompassed nearly the entire remaining range of the SEBM. Although occupancy surveys of other beach mouse subspecies via track tubes have been conducted on the Gulf coast of Florida by Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC), United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), and various universities, we expanded previous methods to fit unique aspects of the SEBM, and thus our study was very different from any of the previous studies. To achieve this specificity, we employed an adaptive approach throughout the study, with all activities aimed at providing managers with information related to environmental compliance and natural resource management on KSC and the surrounding Federal lands.

Eric Douglas Stolen↗

NASA NTRS2012

Anomaly Detection in Test Equipment via Sliding Mode Observers

Nonlinear observers were originally developed based on the ideas of variable structure control, and for the purpose of detecting disturbances in complex systems. In this anomaly detection application, these observers were designed for estimating the distributed state of fluid flow in a pipe described by a class of advection equations. The observer algorithm uses collected data in a piping system to estimate the distributed system state (pressure and velocity along a pipe containing liquid gas propellant flow) using only boundary measurements. These estimates are then used to further estimate and localize possible anomalies such as leaks or foreign objects, and instrumentation metering problems such as incorrect flow meter orifice plate size. The observer algorithm has the following parts: a mathematical model of the fluid flow, observer control algorithm, and an anomaly identification algorithm. The main functional operation of the algorithm is in creating the sliding mode in the observer system implemented as software. Once the sliding mode starts in the system, the equivalent value of the discontinuous function in sliding mode can be obtained by filtering out the high-frequency chattering component. In control theory, "observers" are dynamic algorithms for the online estimation of the current state of a dynamic system by measurements of an output of the system. Classical linear observers can provide optimal estimates of a system state in case of uncertainty modeled by white noise. For nonlinear cases, the theory of nonlinear observers has been developed and its success is mainly due to the sliding mode approach. Using the mathematical theory of variable structure systems with sliding modes, the observer algorithm is designed in such a way that it steers the output of the model to the output of the system obtained via a variety of sensors, in spite of possible mismatches between the assumed model and actual system. The unique properties of sliding mode control allow not only control of the model internal states to the states of the real-life system, but also identification of the disturbance or anomaly that may occur.

Solano, Wanda M.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Preliminary Exploration of Adaptive State Predictor Based Human Operator Modeling

Control-theoretic modeling of the human operator dynamic behavior in manual control tasks has a long and rich history. In the last two decades, there has been a renewed interest in modeling the human operator. There has also been significant work on techniques used to identify the pilot model of a given structure. The purpose of this research is to attempt to go beyond pilot identification based on collected experimental data and to develop a predictor of pilot behavior. An experiment was conducted to quantify the effects of changing aircraft dynamics on an operator s ability to track a signal in order to eventually model a pilot adapting to changing aircraft dynamics. A gradient descent estimator and a least squares estimator with exponential forgetting used these data to predict pilot stick input. The results indicate that individual pilot characteristics and vehicle dynamics did not affect the accuracy of either estimator method to estimate pilot stick input. These methods also were able to predict pilot stick input during changing aircraft dynamics and they may have the capability to detect a change in a subject due to workload, engagement, etc., or the effects of changes in vehicle dynamics on the pilot.

Trujillo, Anna C.↗

NASA NTRS2012

PheniX: A New Vision for the Hard X-ray Sky

We are proposing a mission devoted to high energy X-ray astronomy that is based on a focusing telescope operating in the 1-200 keV energy range but optimized for the hard X-ray range. The main scientific topics concern: Physics of compact objects: The proximity of compact objects provides a unique laboratory to study matter and radiation in extreme conditions of temperature and density in strong gravitational environment. The emission of high energy photons from these objects is far from being understood. The unprecedented sensitivity in the high energy domain will allow a precise determination of the non-thermal processes at work in the vicinity of compact objects. The full 1-200 keV energy coverage will be ideal to disentangle the emission processes produced in the spacetime regions most affected by strong-gravity, as well as the physical links: disk-thermal emission-iron line-comptonisation-reflection-non-thermal emission-jets. Neutron stars-magnetic field-cyclotron lines: Time resolved spectroscopy (and polarimetry) at ultra-high sensitivity of AXP, milliseconds pulsars and magnetars will give new tools to study the role of the synchrotron processes at work in these objects. Cyclotron lines-direct measurement of magnetic filed-equation of state constraints-short bursts-giant flares could all be studied with great details. AGN: The large sensitivity improvement will provide detailed spectral properties of the high energy emission of AGN's. This will give a fresh look to the connection between accretion and jet emission and will provide a new understanding of the physical processes at work. Detection of high-redshift active nuclei in this energy range will allow to introduce an evolutionary aspect to high-energy studies of AGN, probing directly the origin of the Cosmic X-ray Background also in the non-thermal range (> 20 keV). Element formation-Supernovae: The energy resolution achievable for this mission (<0.5 keV) and a large high energy effective area are ideally suited for the 44Ti line study (68 and 78 keV). This radioactive nuclei emission will give an estimate of their quantities and speed in their environment. In addition the study of the spatial structure and spectral emission of SNR will advance our knowledge of the dynamics of supernovae explosions, of particles acceleration mechanisms and how the elements are released in the interstellar medium. Instrumental design: The progress of X-ray focusing optics techniques allows a major step in the instrumental design: the collecting area becomes independent of the detection area. This drastically reduces the instrumental background and will open a new era. The optics will be based on depth-graded multi-layer mirrors in a Wolter I configuration. To obtain a significant effective area in the hundred of keV range a focal length in the 40-50 meters range (attainable with a deployable mast) is needed. In addition such a mission could benefit from recent progress made on mirror coating. We propose to cover the 1-200 keV energy range with a single detector, a double-sided Germanium strip detector operating at 80 K. The main features will be: (a) good energy resolution (.150 keV at 5 keV and <.5 keV at 100 keV), (b) 3 dimensional event localization with a low number of electronic chains, (c) background rejection by the 3D localization, (d) polarisation capabilities in the Compton regime.

PHENIX↗

DOE OSTI2024

a priori uncertainty quantification of reacting turbulence closure models using Bayesian neural networks

While many physics-based closure model forms have been posited for the sub-filter scale (SFS) in large eddy simulation (LES), vast amounts of data available from direct numerical simulations (DNS) create opportunities to leverage data-driven modeling techniques. Albeit flexible, data-driven models still depend on the dataset and the functional form of the model chosen. Increased adoption of such models requires reliable uncertainty estimates both in the data-informed and out-of-distribution regimes. Here, in this work, we employ Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) to capture both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties in a reacting flow model. In particular, we model the filtered progress variable scalar dissipation rate which plays a key role in the dynamics of turbulent premixed flames. We demonstrate that BNN models can provide unique insights about the structure of uncertainty of the data-driven closure models. We also propose a method for the incorporation of out-of-distribution information in a BNN, which can be used for out-of-distribution query detection. The efficacy of the model is demonstrated by a priori evaluation on a dataset consisting of a variety of flame conditions and fuels.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2024

Dynamic Orbital Slingshot for Rendezvous with Interstellar Objects

The solar sail “statite” concept presents a potential means to study interstellar objects (ISOs). A new class of asteroids and comets, ISOs offer a unique scientific opportunity to answer fundamental scientific questions about the origin of solar system volatiles, the compositions of exo-solar systems, and the transfer rates of material between solar systems. Unfortunately, they are also challenging to study due to their high excess energies and the short lead time offered by present detection infrastructure. By using its solar sail to “hover” in place, a statite is able to await the discovery of an ISO and, when called upon, convert the enormous potential energy of its stationary state into the velocity necessary to rendezvous with the targeted comet or asteroid. The investigation completed in Phase I focused on establishing the viability of the proposed mission concept. To do so, optimal trajectories to the two known ISOs were demonstrated and the relationship between statite placement and the resulting trajectory was explored. Post-launch trajectories from the Earth to strategic statite states were also shown to be feasible. Concurrently with these efforts, a thorough review of published ISO population estimates was conducted and preliminary steps towards creating a database of synthetic ISO ephemerides were completed. If renewed for a Phase II, this will be used to characterize the capabilities of the statite concept.

NIAC Phase I↗

DOE OSTI2026

Meta-analysis of North American Arctic and boreal aboveground biomass datasets: assessing accuracy, dynamics, and similarities

The North American arctic and boreal regions (ABRs) are rapidly warming and experiencing intensifying disturbances. Accurately quantifying aboveground biomass (AGB) is critical for understanding the impacts of these changes on the carbon cycle and for designing climate change mitigation strategies. Several AGB maps have been developed for the North American ABRs, including recent contributions from National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) campaign. However, these maps differ widely in training data, methodology, and resulting AGB density estimates. Presently, a comprehensive comparative evaluation is lacking, making it difficult for users to select datasets suited to their research or management needs. Here, in this study, we conducted a comparative analysis of nine AGB density datasets across North American ABRs, specifically for Alaska and Canada. We (1) summarized AGB by ecoregion and Canadian provinces, (2) evaluated their accuracy against field-based measurements, (3) analyzed spatial and temporal similarities among datasets, and (4) assessed their ability to capture disturbance (fire and harvest) impacts on AGB. We found substantial variation in regional and local AGB estimates across datasets, with overall accuracy ranging from R 2 = 0.25–0.62 and Bias% from −47.8% to 69.9% when validated against field plots. Despite these differences, most datasets have comparatively consistent spatial patterns in AGB (r > 0.8 for most cases). In contrast, agreement on the temporal patterns of AGB change is generally low. We found datasets with spatial resolutions ⩽300 m are capable of capturing disturbance impacts on AGB dynamics, though sensitivity varies across products. Our findings and dataset summary provide guidance for selecting appropriate AGB datasets for different applications within our study area. Our analysis also highlights the need to decrease map bias and increase capability to detect temporal change to decrease uncertainty of AGB datasets potentially by using training data which is representative of major plant functional types within the mapped area.

ABoVE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Observation of the axion quasiparticle in 2D MnBi 2 Te 4

The axion is a hypothetical fundamental particle that is conjectured to correspond to the coherent oscillation of the θ field in quantum chromodynamics. Its existence would solve multiple fundamental questions, including the strong CP problem of quantum chromodynamics and dark matter, but the axion has never been detected. Electrodynamics of condensed-matter systems can also give rise to a similar θ, so far studied as a static, quantized value to characterize the topology of materials. Coherent oscillation of θ in condensed matter has been proposed to lead to physics directly analogous to the high-energy axion particle—the dynamical axion quasiparticle (DAQ). Here we report the observation of the DAQ in MnBi 2 Te 4 . By combining a two-dimensional electronic device with ultrafast pump–probe optics, we observe a coherent oscillation of θ at about 44 gigahertz, which is uniquely induced by its out-of-phase antiferromagnetic magnon. This represents direct evidence for the presence of the DAQ, which in two-dimensional MnBi 2 Te 4 is found to arise from the magnon-induced coherent modulation of the Berry curvature. The DAQ also has implications in light–matter interaction and coherent antiferromagnetic spintronics, as it might lead to axion polaritons and electric control of ultrafast spin polarization. Finally, the DAQ could be used to detect axion particles. We estimate the detection frequency range and sensitivity in the millielectronvolt regime, which has so far been poorly explored.

topological matter↗

DOE OSTI2025

Templates for Risk Informed Assurance with Curvature Embeddings (TRACE)

We investigate recovery of geometric structure from networks embedded in manifolds with spatially varying curvature, extending the constant-curvature framework of Lubold et al. (2023). Our work supports cascade risk assessment in critical infrastructure through the Templates for Risk-informed Assurance with Curvature Embeddings (TRACE) framework. Simulations on a bi-modal Gaussian surface show that constant-curvature methods yield weighted averages shaped by clique patterns, while hierarchical clustering identifies distinct regimes. Localized estimation, however, reveals boundary contamination in transitional regions. To address heterogeneity, we develop distance metrics for graphs with edge and node features, proving their metric validity, and validate them via deterministic graph generation from canonical tilings. We further propose a diffusion-based anomaly detection approach that treats networks as glued manifolds, using curvature discontinuities to detect structural anomalies. Employing the carré-du-champ operator and scalar curvature, we achieve robust anomaly discrimination, demonstrated on the Singapore Water Treatment (SWaT) dataset with joint network-traffic and sensor features. Integration with TRACE reveals how curvature shapes cascade dynamics: positive curvature impedes, while negative curvature accelerates propagation. This geometric perspective provides interpretable risk metrics and visualization tools for critical infrastructure managers. While full validation remains ongoing, our contributions establish a rigorous foundation for geometric analysis of network resilience and cascade vulnerability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Computational Imaging for Intelligence in Highly Scattering Aerosols (Final Report)

Natural and man-made degraded visual environments pose major threats to national security. The random scattering and absorption of light by tiny particles suspended in the air reduces situational awareness and causes unacceptable down-time for critical systems and operations. To improve the situation, we have developed several approaches to interpret the information contained within scattered light to enhance sensing and imaging in scattering media. These approaches were tested at the Sandia National Laboratory Fog Chamber facility and with tabletop fog chambers. Computationally efficient light transport models were developed and leveraged for computational sensing. The models are based on a weak angular dependence approximation to the Boltzmann or radiative transfer equation that appears to be applicable in both the moderate and highly scattering regimes. After the new model was experimentally validated, statistical approaches for detection, localization, and imaging of objects hidden in fog were developed and demonstrated. A binary hypothesis test and the Neyman-Pearson lemma provided the highest theoretically possible probability of detection for a specified false alarm rate and signal-to-noise ratio. Maximum likelihood estimation allowed estimation of the fog optical properties as well as the position, size, and reflection coefficient of an object in fog. A computational dehazing approach was implemented to reduce the effects of scatter on images, making object features more readily discernible. We have developed, characterized, and deployed a new Tabletop Fog Chamber capable of repeatably generating multiple unique fog-analogues for optical testing in degraded visual environments. We characterized this chamber using both optical and microphysical techniques. In doing so we have explored the ability of droplet nucleation theory to describe the aerosols generated within the chamber, as well as Mie scattering theory to describe the attenuation of light by said aerosols, and correlated the aerosol microphysics to optical properties such as transmission and meteorological optical range (MOR). This chamber has proved highly valuable and has supported multiple efforts inclusive to and exclusive of this LDRD project to test optics in degraded visual environments. Circularly polarized light has been found to maintain its polarization state better than linearly polarized light when propagating through fog. This was demonstrated experimentally in both the visible and short-wave infrared (SWIR) by imaging targets made of different commercially available retroreflective films. It was found that active circularly polarized imaging can increase contrast and range compared to linearly polarized imaging. We have completed an initial investigation of the capability for machine learning methods to reduce the effects of light scattering when imaging through fog. Previously acquired experimental long-wave images were used to train an autoencoder denoising architecture. Overfitting was found to be a problem because of lack of variability in the object type in this data set. The lessons learned were used to collect a well labeled dataset with much more variability using the Tabletop Fog Chamber that will be available for future studies. We have developed several new sensing methods using speckle intensity correlations. First, the ability to image moving objects in fog was shown, establishing that our unique speckle imaging method can be implemented in dynamic scattering media. Second, the speckle decorrelation over time was found to be sensitive to fog composition, implying extensions to fog characterization. Third, the ability to distinguish macroscopically identical objects on a far-subwavelength scale was demonstrated, suggesting numerous applications ranging from nanoscale defect detection to security. Fourth, we have shown the capability to simultaneously image and localize hidden objects, allowing the speckle imaging method to be effective without prior object positional information. Finally, an interferometric effect was presented that illustrates a new approach for analyzing speckle intensity correlations that may lead to more effective ways to localize and image moving objects. All of these results represent significant developments that challenge the limits of the application of speckle imaging and open important application spaces. A theory was developed and simulations were performed to assess the potential transverse resolution benefit of relative motion in structured illumination for radar systems. Results for a simplified radar system model indicate that significant resolution benefits are possible using data from scanning a structured beam over the target, with the use of appropriate signal processing.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

The decay of HIV under anti-retroviral therapy is biphasic even in humanized mice with just T cells

HIV-1 plasma viral load decays in a biphasic manner during antiretroviral therapy (ART). It was hypothesized that this is due to infection of different cell types, namely CD4+ T cells and macrophages. We studied this possibility directly by modeling the decay of HIV-1 in humanized mice. We utilized previously published data from humanized T-cell only mice (TOM) and myeloid-only mice (MOM) infected with HIV-1 and treated with a potent ART regimen. Viral load decay dynamics were modeled using either a single or a biexponential decay fitted using nonlinear mixed effects techniques. Fits were compared using the corrected Bayesian information criterion (BICc). In TOM, the biphasic model was significantly better than a single-phase decay model (ΔBICc ≈ 16) despite additional parameters. In MOM, the biphasic decay was statistically better, but there was substantial uncertainty because the virus goes below detection very fast. The first-phase half-life was consistent between groups (1.2 days in MOM and 1.3 days in TOM) and similar to the half-life estimated in human infection. The second-phase decay in these mice was minimal likely due to low initial viral loads. Additional analyses with mice containing both CD4+ T cells and macrophages or X4-tropic virus-infected MOM mice confirmed the biphasic pattern, demonstrating the robustness of this result. The biphasic decline in HIV-1 occurs, even with only CD4+ T cells, refuting the hypothesis that distinct cell populations (CD4+ T cells and macrophages) drive each decay phase. These findings support an alternative model in which the observed dynamics arise from intrinsic properties of the viral infection lifecycle rather than from cellular compartmentalization.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2012

Discovery of Small-Scale Spiral Structures in the Disk of SAO 206462 (HD 135344B)(exp 1): Implications for the Physical State of the Disk from Spiral Density Wave Theory

We present high-resolution, H-band, imaging observations, collected with Subaru /HiCIAO, of the scattered light from the transitional disk around SAO 206462 (HD 1353448). Although previous sub-mm imagery suggested the existence of the dust-depleted cavity at r <= 46 AU, our observations reveal the presence of scattered light components as close as O".2 (approx 28 AU) from the star. Moreover , we have discovered two small-scale spiral structures lying within 0".5 (approx 70 AU). We present models for the spiral structures using the spiral density wave theory, and derive a disk aspect ratio of h approx. 0.1, which is consistent with previous sub-mm observations. This model can potentially give estimates of the temperature and rotation profiles of the disk based on dynamical processes. independently from sub-nun observations. It also predicts the evolution of the spiral structures, which can be observable on timescales of 10-20 years, providing conclusive tests of the model. While we cannot uniquely identify the origin of these spirals, planets embedded in the disk may be capable of exciting the observed morphology. Assuming that this is the case, we can make predictions on the locations and, possibly, the masses of the unseen planets. Such planets may be detected by future multi-wavelengths observations,

Muto, T.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Discovery of Small-Scale Spiral Structures in the Disk of SAO 206462 (HD 135344B): Implications for the Physical State of the Disk from Spiral Density Wave Theory

We present high-resolution, H-band, imaging observations, collected with Subaru/HiCIAO, of the scattered light from the transitional disk around SAO 206462 (HD 135344B). Although previous sub-mm imagery suggested the existence of the dust-depleted cavity at r approximates 46 AU, our observations reveal the presence of scattered light components as close as 0".2 (approx 28 AU) from the star. Moreover, we have discovered two small-scale spiral structures lying within 0".5 (approx 70 AU). We present models for the spiral structures using the spiral density wave theory, and derive a disk aspect ratio of h approx 0.1, which is consistent with previous sub-mm observations. This model can potentially give estimates of the temperature and rotation profiles of the disk based on dynamical processes, independently from sub-mm observations. It also predicts the evolution of the spiral structures, which can be observable on timescales of 10-20 years, providing conclusive tests of the model. While we cannot uniquely identify the origin of these spirals, planets embedded in the disk may be capable of exciting the observed morphology. Assuming that this is the case, we can make predictions on the locations and, possibly, the masses of the unseen planets. Such planets may be detected by future multi-wavelengths observations.

Grady, C. A.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Potential Use of a Bayesian Network for Discriminating Flash Type from Future GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) data

Continuous monitoring of the ratio of cloud flashes to ground flashes may provide a better understanding of thunderstorm dynamics, intensification, and evolution, and it may be useful in severe weather warning. The National Lighting Detection Network TM (NLDN) senses ground flashes with exceptional detection efficiency and accuracy over most of the continental United States. A proposed Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) aboard the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) will look at the western hemisphere, and among the lightning data products to be made available will be the fundamental optical flash parameters for both cloud and ground flashes: radiance, area, duration, number of optical groups, and number of optical events. Previous studies have demonstrated that the optical flash parameter statistics of ground and cloud lightning, which are observable from space, are significantly different. This study investigates a Bayesian network methodology for discriminating lightning flash type (ground or cloud) using the lightning optical data and ancillary GOES-R data. A Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) is set up with lightning as a "root" and data observed by GLM as the "leaves." This allows for a direct calculation of the joint probability distribution function for the lighting type and radiance, area, etc. Initially, the conditional probabilities that will be required can be estimated from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) together with NLDN data. Directly manipulating the joint distribution will yield the conditional probability that a lightning flash is a ground flash given the evidence, which consists of the observed lightning optical data [and possibly cloud data retrieved from the GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) in a more mature Bayesian network configuration]. Later, actual GLM and NLDN data can be used to refine the estimates of the conditional probabilities used in the model; i.e., the Bayesian network is a learning network. Methods for efficient calculation of the conditional probabilities (e.g., an algorithm using junction trees), finding data conflicts, goodness of fit, and dealing with missing data will also be addressed.

Solakiewiz, Richard↗

NASA NTRS2011

Characterizing Volcanic Eruptions on Venus: Some Realistic (?) Scenarios

When Pioneer Venus arrived at Venus in 1978, it detected anomalously high concentrations of SO2 at the top of the troposphere, which subsequently declined over the next five years. This decline in SO2 was linked to some sort of dynamic process, possibly a volcanic eruption. Observations of SO2 variability have persisted since Pioneer Venus. More recently, scientists from the Venus Express mission announced that the SPICAV (Spectroscopy for Investigation of Characteristics of the Atmosphere of Venus) instrument had measured varying amounts of SO2 in the upper atmosphere; VIRTIS (Visible and Infrared Thermal Imaging Spectrometer) measured no similar variations in the lower atmosphere (ESA, 4 April, 2008). In addition, Fegley and Prinn stated that venusian volcanoes must replenish SO2 to the atmosphere, or it would react with calcite and disappear within 1.9 my. Fegley and Tremain suggested an eruption rate on the order of approx 1 cubic km/year to maintain atmospheric SO2; Bullock and Grinspoon posit that volcanism must have occurred within the last 20-50 my to maintain the sulfuric acid/water clouds on Venus. The abundance of volcanic deposits on Venus and the likely thermal history of the planet suggest that it is still geologically active, although at rates lower than Earth. Current estimates of resurfacing rates range from approx 0.01 cubic km/yr to approx 2 cubic km/yr. Demonstrating definitively that Venus is still volcanically active, and at what rate, would help to constrain models of evolution of the surface and interior, and help to focus future exploration of Venus.

Stofan, E. R.↗