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DOE OSTI2026

Predicting river turbidity in Pine Island Bayou using machine learning techniques coupled with variational mode decomposition

Elevated turbidity levels pose significant public health risks by facilitating the transport of harmful pollutants, including metals, organic compounds, and pathogenic microorganisms into the surface water. These conditions create serious challenges for public recreational water use and drinking water treatment, leading to economic losses and health risks. This study utilizes water monitoring data in Pine Island Bayou, Texas, and develops a Sequence-to-Sequence (S2S) model to predict turbidity using Attention-based Gated Recurrent Units with Encoder-Decoder (AT-GRU-ED) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), coupled with Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD). Compared to the model without VMD, the model demonstrates satisfactory 72-hour turbidity prediction performance, achieving MAEs of 2.60 and 3.29 NTU (reductions of 53% and 58%), RMSEs of 21.08 and 31.49 NTU (reductions of 82% and 80%), and R² values of 0.96 and 0.84 on the validation and test sets, respectively. Feature importance analysis reveals that water temperature is the dominant factor influencing seasonal turbidity patterns, while real-time hourly rainfall significantly contributes to short-term variability. Turbidity typically peaks within 48 hours after rainfall events due to lagged effects from surface runoff and upstream flow. Findings suggest suspending recreational water use and water supply pumping for three days after heavy rainfall can benefit public health and improve water treatment processes. Discharges above 100 m3/s are found to accelerate sediment dilution and transport, reducing turbidity levels more quickly after the peak. In conclusion, the proposed model demonstrates reliable 72-hour turbidity prediction, supporting decision-making for water treatment plant operations and providing early warning for public recreational water use.

Deep learning↗

DOE OSTI2024

Physics informed neural network can retrieve rate and state friction parameters from acoustic monitoring of laboratory stick-slip experiments

Various machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) techniques have been recently applied to the forecasting of laboratory earthquakes from friction experiments. The magnitude and timing of shear failures in stick-slip cycles are predicted using features extracted from the recorded ultrasonic or acoustic emission (AE) signals. In addition, the Rate and State Friction (RSF) constitutive laws are extensively used to model the frictional behavior of faults. In this work, we use data from shear experiments coupled with passive acoustic (variance, kurtosis, and AE rate) interleaved with active source ultrasonic monitoring (transmitted wave amplitude) to develop physics-informed neural network (PINN) models incorporating the RSF law and AE rate generation equation with wave amplitude serving as a proxy for friction state variable. This PINN framework allows learning RSF parameters from stick-slip experiments rather than measuring them through a series of velocity step experiments. We observe that when the stick-slip cycles are irregular, the PINN models outperform the data-driven DL models. Transfer learning (TL) PINN models are also developed by pre-training on data collected at one normal stress level followed by forecasting shear failures and retrieving RSF parameters at other stress levels (i.e., with different recurrence intervals) after retraining on a limited amount of new data. Our findings suggest that TL models perform better compared to standalone models. Both standalone and TL PINN-estimated RSF parameters and their ground truth values show excellent agreements thus demonstrating that RSF parameters can be retrieved from laboratory stick-slip experiments using the corresponding acoustic data and that the transmitted wave amplitude provides a good representation of the evolving frictional state during stick-slips.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Source-agnostic gravitational-wave detection with recurrent autoencoders

Abstract We present an application of anomaly detection techniques based on deep recurrent autoencoders (AEs) to the problem of detecting gravitational wave (GW) signals in laser interferometers. Trained on noise data, this class of algorithms could detect signals using an unsupervised strategy, i.e. without targeting a specific kind of source. We develop a custom architecture to analyze the data from two interferometers. We compare the obtained performance to that obtained with other AE architectures and with a convolutional classifier. The unsupervised nature of the proposed strategy comes with a cost in terms of accuracy, when compared to more traditional supervised techniques. On the other hand, there is a qualitative gain in generalizing the experimental sensitivity beyond the ensemble of pre-computed signal templates. The recurrent AE outperforms other AEs based on different architectures. The class of recurrent AEs presented in this paper could complement the search strategy employed for GW detection and extend the discovery reach of the ongoing detection campaigns.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Performance Comparison of Machine Learning Models for Ultrasonic Nondestructive Evaluation of Alkali-Silica Reaction in Concrete

Alkali-silica reaction (ASR) causes concrete degradation, leading to cracking, rebar corrosion, and reduced structural integrity, which raises safety concerns. Ultrasonic nondestructive evaluation (NDE) effectively assesses concrete properties and monitors ASR progression. However, its deployment and analysis require specialized expertise and subjective interpretation. As computational power increases, artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) algorithms are increasingly being used to automate NDE data analysis across various industries for AI-assisted automation. Regulatory agencies are adapting to this technological shift, prompting a need to evaluate current ML technologies’ capabilities and limitations in assessing concrete material properties and damage. This report presents a comparative analysis of four ML regression models for predicting concrete material damage induced by ASR expansion using long-term ultrasonic data monitoring. The models investigated include linear regression (LR), support vector regression (SVR), shallow neural networks (NN), and deep neural networks (DNN). LR, SVR, and shallow NN models use features extracted from ultrasonic signals, whereas the DNN model processes time-domain ultrasonic signals and frequency spectra directly. The study systematically compared the models’ performance from various perspectives, including model input, prediction performance, and generalization ability. The findings indicate significant variability in model performance, with some ML algorithms achieving very high or very low prediction accuracy depending on the preprocessing and feature engineering (extraction and selection) applied. Key insights include the observation that shallow ML models (LR, SVR, and shallow NNs) require meticulous preprocessing and feature extraction to achieve high accuracy. In contrast, the DNN model, although it bypasses the need for feature engineering, necessitates extensive preprocessing to mitigate noise and computational demands. The SVR model emerged as the top performer among the shallow models, and the DNN model exhibited superior performance on specific datasets but struggled with generalization across specimens from different batches. Additionally, the SVR model is sensitive to temperature variations, whereas the DNN model is robust in this regard. Using recurrent neural networks is recommended for future ASR expansion prediction studies. Recurrent neural networks’ inherent ability to capture temporal dependencies and long-term patterns makes them well suited for analyzing sequential ultrasonic monitoring data. Overall, the results and conclusions of this study could provide insights into the capabilities and effectiveness of ML when applied to ultrasonic NDE data and help identify best practices for using ML for ultrasonic NDE of concrete material properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Large-scale deep learning for metastasis detection in pathology reports

Objectives No existing algorithm can reliably identify metastasis from pathology reports across multiple cancer types and the entire US population. In this study, we develop a deep learning model that automatically detects patients with metastatic cancer by using pathology reports from many laboratories and of multiple cancer types. Materials and Methods We use 60 471 unstructured pathology reports from 4 Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registries. The reports were coded into 1 of 3 labels: metastasis negative, metastases positive, or metastasis undetermined. We utilize a task-specific deep neural network trained from scratch and compare its performance with a widely used large language model (LLM). Results Our deep learning architecture trained on task-specific data outperforms a general-purpose LLM, with a recall of 0.894 compared to 0.824. We quantified model uncertainty and used it to defer reports for human review. We found that retaining 72.9% of reports increased recall from 0.894 to 0.969. Discussion A smaller deep learning architecture trained on task-specific data outperforms a general LLM. Equally critical to model performance is the incorporation of uncertainty quantification, achieved here through an abstention mechanism. Conclusions This study’s finding demonstrate the feasibility of developing algorithms to automatically identify metastatic cancer cases from unstructured pathology reports.

machine learning↗

DOE OSTI2021

The radioactive nuclei 26 Al and 60 Fe in the Cosmos and in the solar system

The cosmic evolution of the chemical elements from the Big Bang to the present time is driven by nuclear fusion reactions inside stars and stellar explosions. A cycle of matter recurrently re-processes metal-enriched stellar ejecta into the next generation of stars. The study of cosmic nucleosynthesis and this matter cycle requires the understanding of the physics of nuclear reactions, of the conditions at which the nuclear reactions are activated inside the stars and stellar explosions, of the stellar ejection mechanisms through winds and explosions, and of the transport of the ejecta towards the next cycle, from hot plasma to cold, star-forming gas. Due to the long timescales of stellar evolution, and because of the infrequent occurrence of stellar explosions, observational studies are challenging, as they have biases in time and space as well as different sensitivities related to the various astronomical methods. Here, we describe in detail the astrophysical and nuclear-physical processes involved in creating two radioactive isotopes useful in such studies, 26 Al and 60 Fe. Due to their radioactive lifetime of the order of a million years, these isotopes are suitable to characterise simultaneously the processes of nuclear fusion reactions and of interstellar transport. We describe and discuss the nuclear reactions involved in the production and destruction of 26 Al and 60 Fe, the key characteristics of the stellar sites of their nucleosynthesis and their interstellar journey after ejection from the nucleosynthesis sites. This allows us to connect the theoretical astrophysical aspects to the variety of astronomical messengers presented here, from stardust and cosmic-ray composition measurements, through observation of γ rays produced by radioactivity, to material deposited in deep-sea ocean crusts and to the inferred composition of the first solids that have formed in the Solar System. We show that considering measurements of the isotopic ratio of 26 Al to 60 Fe eliminate some of the unknowns when interpreting astronomical results, and discuss the lessons learned from these two isotopes on cosmic chemical evolution. This review paper has emerged from an ISSI-BJ Team project in 2017–2019, bringing together nuclear physicists, astronomers, and astrophysicists in this inter-disciplinary discussion.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dataset for "Machine Learning Ensembles Can Enhance Hydrologic Predictions and Uncertainty Quantification" Willard et al. (2025).

This data release provides all data and code used in the paper " "Machine Learning Ensembles Can Enhance Hydrologic Predictions and Uncertainty Quantifications" Willard et al. (2025)" to model stream temperature, evaluate, and assess results. The associated manuscript explores the effect of different ensemble construction techniques across different common machine learning (ML) architectures for predictions in unmonitored basins. Modeling was done using long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU), temporal convolution network (TCN), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models, and stream site coverage spans 1362 locations across the conterminous United States. The ensemble construction techniques investigated include ensemble by random weight initialization, differing hyperparameters, different random subsets of training data, different subselections of input features, different architectures, and Monte Carlo Dropout. The data is organized into these items items:Code repository and data for the paper " "Machine Learning Ensembles Can Enhance Hydrologic Predictions and Uncertainty Quantifications" Willard et al. (2025).Code: stream_temp_ml_regionalization.zip contains the code repositoryData to run the code:- data_dir.zip -- contains all files that should be moved to the "DATA_DIR" variable defined in the "set_env_vars.sh" script in the code repository- metadata_dir.zip -- contains all files that should be moved to the "METADATA_DIR" variable defined in the "set_env_vars.sh" script in the code repositoryData produced by the code and used in the paper:- outputs_dir.zip - contains model output and results (outputs_dir/results), model weights (outputs_dir/models), and all other outputs used for the paper including feature importances.To cite this code, please use the following BibTeX or MLA entries:bibtex:@misc{willard2025streamensembles,author = {Jared Willard and Charuleka Varadharajan},title = {Dataset for "Machine Learning Ensembles Can Enhance Hydrologic Predictions and Uncertainty Quantification"},year = {2024},doi = {10.15485/2527393},publisher = {ESS-DIVE Repository},url = {https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/2527393}}MLA: Willard, Jared, et al. Dataset for "Machine Learning Ensembles Can Enhance Hydrologic Predictions and Uncertainty Quantification". 2025. ESS-DIVE Repository, doi:10.15485/2448016.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating the Potential and Challenges of an Uncertainty Quantification Method for Long Short–Term Memory Models for Soil Moisture Predictions

Recently, recurrent deep networks have shown promise to harness newly available satellite–sensed data for long–term soil moisture projections. However, to be useful in forecasting, deep networks must also provide uncertainty estimates. Here we evaluated Monte Carlo dropout with an input–dependent data noise term (MCD+N), an efficient uncertainty estimation framework originally developed in computer vision, for hydrologic time series predictions. MCD+N simultaneously estimates a heteroscedastic input–dependent data noise term (a trained error model attributable to observational noise) and a network weight uncertainty term (attributable to insufficiently constrained model parameters). Although MCD+N has appealing features, many heuristic approximations were employed during its derivation, and rigorous evaluations and evidence of its asserted capability to detect dissimilarity were lacking. To address this, we provided an in–depth evaluation of the scheme's potential and limitations. We showed that for reproducing soil moisture dynamics recorded by the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, MCD+N indeed gave a good estimate of predictive error, provided that we tuned a hyperparameter and used a representative training data set. The input–dependent term responded strongly to observational noise, while the model term clearly acted as a detector for physiographic dissimilarity from the training data, behaving as intended. However, when the training and test data were characteristically different, the input–dependent term could be misled, undermining its reliability. Additionally, due to the data–driven nature of the model, data noise also influences network weight uncertainty, and therefore the two uncertainty terms are correlated. Altogether, this approach has promise, but care is needed to interpret the results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗