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DOE OSTI2024

A deep learning-based workflow for fast prediction of 3D state variables in geological carbon storage: A dimension reduction approach

Deep learning (DL) models are extensively used as surrogate models for high-fidelity simulations of multiphase fluid flow in porous media at large scales, enabling fast forecasts of the spatial–temporal evolution of three-dimensional (3D) state variables in geological carbon storage (GCS). However, training these models in high-dimensional space remains computationally demanding and prone to overfitting because of limited training data. This paper presents a novel workflow to address these challenges by integrating dimension reduction (DR) methods. Here, the proposed workflow employed pre-trained DR models to extract the latent variables of geological models and state variables and utilized the multi-layer perceptron (MLP) for constructing mapping functions between the input and output variables in latent spaces. Subsequently, the pre-trained reconstruction models converted the MLP-predicted latent state variables to their original high-dimensional form. Furthermore, we proposed a novel strategy for the DR and reconstruction of 3D saturation fields to account for the unique data characteristics of sparsity, nonuniformity, and discontinuity. The proposed strategy applied PCA and inverse PCA for 2D average saturation fields and developed a DL-based 3D reconstruction model, leveraging three 2D average saturation fields as input to produce a 3D saturation field as output. The pre-training of DR and reconstruction models and training of MLP models were conducted on 84 Gulf of Mexico (GoM) simulations and evaluated on 12 testing simulations. Each simulation contained 720 monthly time steps, with the first 360 months as the injection period and the rest as the post-injection period. The proposed workflow, incorporating DR and DL models, accurately predicts the normalized 3D pressure fields, achieving mean square error (MSE) of 2.92 × 10 -7 compared to the ground truth obtained from a full-physics simulator. Furthermore, the proposed strategy outperformed PCA and convolutional autoencoder (CAE) models on 3D saturation fields, resulting in minor workflow prediction errors with an MSE of 2.93 × 10 -5 . The results suggest the proposed workflow provides sufficient predictive fidelity across temporal and spatial scales, and enables a speedup of 160 times compared to the full-physics simulator, facilitating improved decision-making and risk assessment for large-scale GCS management in real-time scenarios.

3D reconstruction model↗

DOE OSTI2022

Deep reinforcement learning based optimization for a tightly coupled nuclear renewable integrated energy system

New ways to integrate energy systems to maximize efficiency are being sought to meet carbon emissions goals. Nuclear-renewable integrated energy system (NR-IES) concepts are a leading solution that couples a nuclear power plant with renewable energy, hydrogen generation plants, and energy storage systems, such that thermal and electrical power are dispatchable to fulfill grid-flexibility requirements while also producing hydrogen and maximizing revenue. Here, this paper introduces a deep reinforcement learning (DRL)-based framework to address the complex decision-making tasks for NR-IES. The objective is to maximize revenue by generating and selling hydrogen and electricity simultaneously according to their time-varying prices while keeping the energy flow in the subsystems in balance. A Python-based simulator for a NR-IES concept has been developed to integrate with OpenAI Gym and Ray/RLlib to enable an efficient and flexible computational framework for DRL research and development. Three state-of-the-art DRL algorithms have been investigated, including two-delayed deep deterministic policy gradient (TD3), soft-actor critic (SAC), proximal policy optimization (PPO), to illustrate DRL’s superiority for controlling NR-IES by comparing it with a conventional control approach, particle swarm optimization (PSO). In this effort, PPO has shown more-stable performance and also better generalization capability than SAC and TD3. Comparisons with PSO have demonstrated that, on average, PPO can achieve 13.9% more mean episode returns from the training process and 29.4% more mean episode returns from the testing process when different hydrogen-production targets are applied.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2026

Optimization of Desalination Systems with Detailed Water Chemistry through Integration of Reaktoro in WaterTAP

Chemistry predictions are critical for an accurate estimation of performance and costs in desalination process models, which allows for the estimation of the value of new technologies and the viability of treating new water sources. Herein, we present how an implicit function formulation can be used to integrate the chemical modeling package, Reaktoro, into the techno-economic assessment and modeling platform, WaterTAP. This approach resolves the critical issues of integrating large-scale thermodynamic models and databases into equation-oriented process models while allowing more flexibility relative to previously presented surrogate-based methods. We describe how this integration into Pyomo and WaterTAP models is implemented and used through the open-source package Reaktoro-PSE . We first validate this integration approach by performing optimization on a previously presented desalination treatment train with softening and acid addition as the pretreatment steps. Then, to demonstrate the value of this approach, we extend the cost-optimization problem to include the simultaneous addition of lime and soda ash for softening, and HCl and H 2 SO 4 in the acidification steps. Finally, we were able to confirm the previously established results that were obtained by using surrogate models and demonstrate that the implicit function approach enables exploration of different feedwater compositions and a larger number of chemicals and their combinations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Development of a Discrepancy Checker for the Digital Twin in a Supervisory Control System for a Thermal Energy Delivery System

Defined as a virtual representation of a physical object, process, or service, and used to support real-world decision-making, a digital twin (DT) can be utilized to combine classical and novel frameworks in sensors, state predictions, and multi-input/multi-output systems, and to enable optimal autonomous operations. However, a DT’s usefulness largely depends on its ability to adequately mirror the state of its physical counterpart, and this adequacy should be reflected by the level of uncertainty in the underlying simulation models when estimating and predicting quantities of interest (QOIs). Moreover, simulation models in a DT may involve multiple fidelities of representations—ranging from physics-based models to data-driven ones—but classical uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods struggle to handle numerous uncertainty sources, nor are they designed for real-time applications. This work presents a UQ-based discrepancy checking and diagnosis tool for a DT-based supervisory control system applied to a thermal energy delivery system (TEDS) at Idaho National Laboratory. The discrepancy checker was developed using metadata from an automated DT development process, and these metadata included different combinations of physical model forms and model parameters, training data and hyperparameters for surrogate models, and design parameters for supervisory control systems. Next, correlations between the uncertainty results and the metadata were established and then applied to the DT operations. The discrepancy checker evaluates the discrepancies between model predictions from virtual and sensor measurements and backtraces them to the corresponding major sources of uncertainty. The discrepancy checker showed reasonable performance in detecting discrepancies and diagnosing sources of uncertainty in testing scenarios.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

PV Generation and Load Forecasting for Adjuntas PR Community Microgrids

Existing frameworks to forecast time-series photovoltaic (PV) output power and consumer load for microgrid operations and controls assume a near-continuous availability of real-time input features from the field assets such as PV inverters, energy meters, and weather station. These incoming data points are used to periodically retrain models and update forecast snapshots over a moving horizon window, be it one hour-ahead, one-day ahead, or one-week ahead. However, such frameworks are not resilient to disruptions in data availability caused by losses in communications between the field sensors and data loggers. Hence, there is a need for programs that assume no availability of real-time microgrid asset data and still make reliable forecasts that can be used for decision-making. Such programs would be apt to function in extreme weather events such as hurricanes and would use lightweight recursive time-series models to independently forecast solar irradiance and ambient temperature, then compute PV power from those forecasts, as well as independently forecast consumer load. The codebase performs forecasting for the scenario of when the microgrid does not have a reliable access to forecasts or real-time observations of solar irradiance (I) and ambient temperature (AT) and load (Load) to be able to adequately forecast, in real-time, the PV power production or a business' load. In this case, using historical values of PV power and load, a univariate forecasting of generation and consumption are respectively made. The use-case in particular has two sub-scenarios: one, a normal 7-day ahead forecast where the unavailability of real-time data is assumed due to infrastructure issues such as loss of communication or sensor maintenance or service downtimes. Whereas a hurricane-caused unavailability of real-time data requires a second model trained specifically on historical hurricane days to be able to capture the extreme day behavior of generation in particular, and load if applicable. A gradient boosted regression tree comprises an ensemble of additive models that map between the input of historical values (be it irradiance, temperature, or load) and their corresponding output forecasts of a given horizon such that the individual learner predictions are summed up over the total number of such learners in the ensemble to produce an aggregate forecast. A weighting mechanism is applied to the training data in each iteration, where actual and forecast values are compared to penalize incorrect forecasts by increasing the weight and reducing it to reward correct forecasts. The code's benefits are that it: (a) accounts for a contingency where communication loss renders newly measured real-time data unavailable for model tuning and snapshot updates; (b) presents blind forecasting that recursively determines the next time-step value in a horizon using the forecast of the same attribute from a prior step; and (c) employs lightweight models that, once trained, can reliably generalize for different horizons, which make them suitable for enhancing the resilience of field microgrids prone to extreme events that encounter disruptions to data availability.

Sundararajan, Aditya [Oak Ridge National Laborator↗

DOE OSTI2022

Deep compressed seismic learning for fast location and moment tensor inferences with natural and induced seismicity

Fast detection and characterization of seismic sources is crucial for decision-making and warning systems that monitor natural and induced seismicity. However, besides the laying out of ever denser monitoring networks of seismic instruments, the incorporation of new sensor technologies such as Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) further challenges our processing capabilities to deliver short turnaround answers from seismic monitoring. In response, this work describes a methodology for the learning of the seismological parameters: location and moment tensor from compressed seismic records. In this method, data dimensionality is reduced by applying a general encoding protocol derived from the principles of compressive sensing. The data in compressed form is then fed directly to a convolutional neural network that outputs fast predictions of the seismic source parameters. Thus, the proposed methodology can not only expedite data transmission from the field to the processing center, but also remove the decompression overhead that would be required for the application of traditional processing methods. An autoencoder is also explored as an equivalent alternative to perform the same job. We observe that the CS-based compression requires only a fraction of the computing power, time, data and expertise required to design and train an autoencoder to perform the same task. Implementation of the CS-method with a continuous flow of data together with generalization of the principles to other applications such as classification are also discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

A novel conditional generative model for efficient ensemble forecasts of state variables in large-scale geological carbon storage

Integrating monitoring data to efficiently update reservoir pressure and CO 2 plume distribution forecasts presents a significant challenge in geological carbon storage (GCS) applications. Inverse modeling techniques are commonly used to fuse observational data and refine reservoir model parameters, thereby improving state variable forecasts. However, these techniques often rely on linear or Gaussian assumptions, which can limit their effectiveness in accurately predicting state variables. Moreover, simulating large-scale three-dimensional (3D) GCS problems is computationally expensive, making iterative runs in inverse problems prohibitive. To address these challenges, we propose a conditional generative model utilizing the score-based diffusion method for real-time 3D pressure and saturation field distribution predictions. Our approach involves solving the score function with a mini-batch-based Monte Carlo estimator to generate labeled data. This data is subsequently employed to train a fully connected neural network, enabling it to learn the conditional sample generator within a supervised learning framework. This method enables the rapid generation of a large ensemble of predictions, facilitating comprehensive uncertainty quantification of state variables. Here we applied our method to forecast the dynamic 3D distributions of pressure and saturation fields over a 30-year injection period. The statistical assessment with low root mean square error (RMSE) values demonstrates that our method can accurately predict the spatiotemporal distributions of both pressure and saturation fields. Moreover, the developed conditional generative model shows high computational efficiency by generating 100 ensemble forecasts of 3D state variables in less than 10 min. The consistency between ensemble averages and ground truth values further illustrates the model’s capability to capture state variable dynamics during the CO 2 plume injection process. Notably, the ground truth values fall within the ensemble forecasts, indicating that our uncertainty quantification effectively captures variability and potential noise in the observations. Thus, the developed conditional generative model proves to be a more efficient, accurate, and practical tool for GCS applications, facilitating timely risk analysis and informed decision-making.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Use of Machine Learning on PMU Data for Transmission System Fault Analysis

Synchrophasor technology has been used for monitoring, control, and protection of bulk power system for over 10 years. Deployment of phasor measurement units (PMUs) in the USA power system has surpassed 3000 units installed in the transmission substations as stand-alone intelligent electronic devices (IEDs) or as a software add-on to other devices such as digital protective relays (DPRs) or digital fault recorders (DFRs). By now, thousands of terabytes of PMU data may have been captured and stored by various transmission system operators (TSOs) and independent system operators (ISOs). This creates an opportunity to deploy advanced machine learning (ML) techniques to detect and classify faults recorded by PMUs automatically to be used by the system operators for rapid, critical decision-making when manual analysis of the past or unfolding events is not feasible. In this paper we offer a brief background on how the automated fault analysis may be done using DPR and/or DFR data, and compare some of the legacy approaches to the new ML approaches in the context of the system-wide PMU recordings. We then offer insights from developing practical ML solutions that have been applied on field recordings captured by close to 450 PMUs from all three US interconnections (Western, Eastern and ERCOT) over two years (2016-2017). We identify and illustrate ML challenges we addressed: inaccurate data, data with scarce and temporally imprecise fault labels, data recorded by PMUs sparsely located at substations resulting in the fault records taken afar from the ends of the faulted lines, data containing only positive sequence values, and data taken at different voltage levels. We then illustrate the ML model results for fault analysis under different application scenarios. The novelty of this study is not only in the design, implementation, and performance analysis of the ML algorithms, but also in the use of advanced fault modelling and simulation approaches to improve the training results when developing supervised ML models for fault detection and classification. Extensive simulations of faults were conducted on a 14-bus power system to create a training dataset with over 1400 accurately labelled faults. This dataset was applied to enhance the accuracy of fault detection and classification of machine learning-based models trained with small number of labelled faults in large datasets recorded in the grid interconnections ranging from 5,000 to 70,000 buses.

Synchrophasors, Machine Learning, Fault Analysis, ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hydrodynamic Test Requirements Process Improvements

Hydrodynamic testing at Los Alamos National Laboratory would benefit from a process improvement for the requirements process. Cameo was used as a digital solution for requirements management to allow Lead Engineers to track requirements more effectively. This was identified as a process improvement throughout this Capstone project. This report includes a project proposal, business case, literature review, methodology, project plan, data analysis, decision-making report, financial analysis report, discussion, and conclusion. Initially, this project focused on figuring out a solution for the hydrotest requirement process improvements. The scope narrowed to focus on the use of Cameo for requirement capture and management. During this Capstone, four tests had digital models produced for requirements management in Cameo. The initial model was the baseline, with core requirements used across the tests. Commonalities in tests were used and the core requirements allowed for process efficiencies. In the data analysis, it was seen that overall, the implementation of using Cameo for requirements resulted in a decreasing trend for both schedule and normalized cost. Tests have different complexity levels which is also a factor in how long the requirements process will take. Additional data is needed to continue analyzing process improvements. Through decisionmaking and financial analysis, the recommendation was to use Cameo for requirements process improvement. Multiple experts provided feedback for requirements that were then captured within models. Numerous tangible and intangible benefits were identified with this process improvement. For return on investment, the metric of success was schedule reduction, which was overall seen. Four tests were analyzed, so future analysis will be needed. There is also not a great financial risk because the main cost would be purchasing more licenses. Individuals must generate requirements whether using this software or not. Overall, training is needed to help improve the skillsets of Lead Engineers but is already being supported on a regular frequency. A desktop guide was started associated with explaining the process, however, it is a work in progress. The team plans on adding additional information in the digital models to help status when requirements are met using verification methods and artifacts. From working on this project an improved understanding of Cameo and requirements was the result. There are future opportunities to extend the usage for requirements management and progress will continue after this project.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Development and assessment of a reactor system prognosis model with physics-guided machine learning

Autonomous control systems provide recommendations to help operators in decision-making during plant operations ranging from normal operation to accident management. An important step of autonomous control is prognosis. In nuclear engineering domain, prognosis is the process of predicting future conditions of a system or equipment based on present signs and symptoms of a fault. The prognosis model allows predicting future reactor states for possible candidate control strategies so that the outcomes can be evaluated to determine the best control strategy. The prognosis model requires representing direct relationships between the symptoms and the predictions. In nuclear engineering, computational simulations are approximate representations of the operation of the real system. However, prognosis with computational simulations requires high computation power and time due to possible large number of scenarios. Necessary computation resources can be reduced with machine learning (ML) approach for fast predictions by building a surrogate function using the simulation data. A critical issue is, ML models are ignorant of physical knowledge, and these models approximate statistical relationships between the system variables. This ignorance can produce results that are inconsistent with physical laws, even if an optimal result is achieved from a mathematical point of view. Physics-guided machine learning (PGML) is an approach to tackle this issue. Here, this work formulates and illustrates a framework to guide development and assessment of the ML-based prognosis model for autonomous control systems. The development of the prognosis model considers the training of a ML model which consists of optimizing many aspects of the ML approach. The assessment of the prognosis model considers training data limitations and uncertainties of the ML approach. Prognosis models with standalone ML and PGML are developed and assessed on the loss-of-flow scenario of Experimental Breeder Reactor II. The results indicate that PGML based prognosis model has the best performance compared to other prognosis models.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Forecasting Multi-Step-Ahead Street-Scale Nuisance Flooding using a seq2seq LSTM Surrogate Model for Real-Time Application in a Coastal-Urban City

In coastal-urban cities facing an elevated risk of nuisance flooding (by rain and tide) due to increased heavy rainfall, sea level rise, urbanization, and aging drainage systems, real-time flood forecasting at the street-scale can provide useful information to transportation decision-makers. Physics-Based Models (PBMs) that offer high accuracy come with high computational runtimes and costs that limit their application for real-time flood forecasting. To address this challenge, Machine Learning (ML) surrogate models trained from PBMs have been proposed to provide street-scale flood forecasts. Previous related studies have focused on using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) architectures to model hourly flood depth on streets. While LSTM models can capture input sequences effectively, they fall short in accurately preserving output sequences, limiting their suitability for multi-step-ahead forecasts. The seq2seq LSTM architecture offers a key advantage here by capturing the full sequence of input–output, making it potentially more suitable for multi-step-ahead flood forecasts compared to traditional LSTM models. However, seq2seq LSTM has not been tested for street-scale flood forecasting, particularly for rapidly fluctuating nuisance flooding events which require special attention to its temporal sequences. Hence, in this study, we applied the seq2seq LSTM model to explore multi-step-ahead street-scale nuisance flooding and compared its results to the traditional LSTM model as a benchmark model. LSTM and seq2seq LSTM surrogate models were applied to 22 flood-prone streets in Norfolk, Virginia, as a case study with a 4-hr (short-term) and 8-hr (long-term) lead time. The models were trained with environmental (rainfall and tide) and topographic (elevation, Topographic Wetness Index, and Depth-To-Water) features along with PBM-derived water depths for different storm events. The results demonstrated satisfactory performance of both LSTM and seq2seq LSTM surrogate models throughout the forecast period compared to the PBM. However, the seq2seq LSTM showed lower Mean Absolute Error (MAE)/ Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and higher Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE)/ correlation than the LSTM across most lead times, particularly for long-term forecasting due to its supremacy in handling both input–output sequences together, which is missing in the traditional LSTM. For example, in the long-term, the average RMSE ranges were 0.0268–0.0373 m for LSTM and 0.0226–0.0319 m for seq2seq LSTM, while in the short-term, they were 0.0263–0.0293 m and 0.0261–0.0283 m, respectively. Additionally, while both models exhibited similar performance in distinguishing flooded and non-flooded streets for flood depth ≥ 0.1 m, the seq2seq LSTM model demonstrated superior performance for higher flood depths (such as ≥ 0.2 m and ≥ 0.3 m). Once trained, inference took only 0.09 to 0.11 s (short-term) and 0.30 to 0.35 s (long-term) per storm event for the 22 streets, making the application highly suitable for real-time decision-making during nuisance flood events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Unsupervised multimodal fusion of in-process sensor data for advanced manufacturing process monitoring

Effective monitoring of manufacturing processes is crucial for maintaining product quality and operational efficiency. Modern manufacturing environments often generate vast amounts of complementary multimodal data, including visual imagery from various perspectives and resolutions, hyperspectral data, and machine health monitoring information such as actuator positions, accelerometer readings, and temperature measurements. However, fusing and interpreting this complex, high-dimensional data presents significant challenges, particularly when labeled datasets are unavailable or impractical to obtain. This paper presents a novel approach to multimodal sensor data fusion in manufacturing processes, inspired by the Contrastive Language-Image Pre-training (CLIP) model. We leverage contrastive learning techniques to correlate different data modalities without the need for labeled data, overcoming limitations of traditional supervised machine learning methods in manufacturing contexts. Our proposed method demonstrates the ability to handle and learn encoders for five distinct modalities: visual imagery, audio signals, laser position (x and y coordinates), and laser power measurements. By compressing these high-dimensional datasets into low-dimensional representational spaces, our approach facilitates downstream tasks such as process control, anomaly detection, and quality assurance. The unsupervised nature of our method makes it broadly applicable across various manufacturing domains, where large volumes of unlabeled sensor data are common. We evaluate the effectiveness of our approach through a series of experiments, demonstrating its potential to enhance process monitoring capabilities in advanced manufacturing systems. This research contributes to the field of smart manufacturing by providing a flexible, scalable framework for multimodal data fusion that can adapt to diverse manufacturing environments and sensor configurations. The proposed method paves the way for more robust, data-driven decision-making in complex manufacturing processes.

Contrastive Learning↗

DOE OSTI2023

Interpretable boosted-decision-tree analysis for the Majorana Demonstrator

The Majorana Demonstrator is a leading experiment searching for neutrinoless double-beta decay with high purity germanium detectors (HPGe). Machine learning provides a new way to maximize the amount of information provided by these detectors, but the data-driven nature makes it less interpretable compared to traditional analysis. An interpretability study reveals the machine's decision-making logic, allowing us to learn from the machine to feedback to the traditional analysis. In this work, we have presented the first machine learning analysis of the data from the Majorana Demonstrator; this is also the first interpretable machine learning analysis of any germanium detector experiment. Two gradient boosted decision tree models are trained to learn from the data, and a game-theory-based model interpretability study is conducted to understand the origin of the classification power. By learning from data, this analysis recognizes the correlations among reconstruction parameters to further enhance the background rejection performance. By learning from the machine, this analysis reveals the importance of new background categories to reciprocally benefit the standard Majorana analysis. This model is highly compatible with next-generation germanium detector experiments like LEGEND since it can be simultaneously trained on a large number of detectors.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Topological Interpretability for Deep Learning

With the growing adoption of AI-based systems across everyday life, the need to understand their decision-making mechanisms is correspondingly increasing. The level at which we can trust the statistical inferences made from AI-based decision systems is an increasing concern, especially in high-risk systems such as criminal justice or medical diagnosis, where incorrect inferences may have tragic consequences. Despite their successes in providing solutions to problems involving real-world data, deep learning (DL) models cannot quantify the certainty of their predictions. These models are frequently quite confident, even when their solutions are incorrect. This work presents a method to infer prominent features in two DL classification models trained on clinical and non-clinical text by employing techniques from topological and geometric data analysis. We create a graph of a model's feature space and cluster the inputs into the graph's vertices by the similarity of features and prediction statistics. We then extract subgraphs demonstrating high-predictive accuracy for a given label. These subgraphs contain a wealth of information about features that the DL model has recognized as relevant to its decisions. We infer these features for a given label using a distance metric between probability measures, and demonstrate the stability of our method compared to the LIME and SHAP interpretability methods. This work establishes that we may gain insights into the decision mechanism of a DL model. This method allows us to ascertain if the model is making its decisions based on information germane to the problem or identifies extraneous patterns within the data.

Spannaus, Adam↗

DOE OSTI2023

Explainable Artificial Intelligence Technology for Predictive Maintenance

The domestic nuclear power plant fleet has relied on labor-intensive and time-consuming preventive maintenance programs, thus driving up operation and maintenance costs to achieve high-capacity factors. Artificial intelligence and machine learning can help simplify complex problems, such as diagnosing equipment degradation, to enable more effective decision-making. Benefits will be felt not only within existing analog and digital instrumentation and control, but also work processes, the integration of people with technology, and most importantly, the business case. Together, these hold promise to make nuclear power more efficient and reduce costs associated with operation and maintenance. While the artificial intelligence and machine learning technologies hold significant promise in the nuclear industry, there are challenges or barriers to their adoption. This report outlines the those different machine learning adoption barriers (categorized as historical, technical, economic, regulatory, and user) that the industry must overcome to realize the full benefits of artificial intelligence and machine learning capabilities for long-term economic sustainability. This report also provides solutions for some of these barriers by focusing on improving the explainability of machine learning to encourage trust from the end-user. Trust and explainability are essential to machine learning adoption. This report focuses on research-developed solutions to some of these barriers while analyzing a non-safety-related system, namely the circulating water system. This system frequently experiences waterbox fouling which our models preemptively diagnoses then explains to the operator how those conclusions were reached. This report presents and discusses the inherent trade-off between machine learning performance (in terms of accuracy) and explainability, where highly accurate machine learning methods (such as deep-learning) are the least explainable, and the most explainable methods (such as decision trees) are the least accurate. In addition, explainability of artificial intelligence techniques in terms of transparency and post-hoc metrics are discussed. This report outlines the importance of data novelty and value of new information in evaluating both the explainability and trustworthiness. Novelty detection helps to establish consistency or inconsistency of the new data with respect to the training data. On the other hand, value of information could be a part of the user-centric visualization recommendation system that request additional information to be collected, thereby strengthening the machine learning outcomes. During this project, a copyrighted user-centric visualization that aligns with a human-in-the-loop approach was developed. The user-centric visualization presents different levels of information and can be tailored as per user credentials to gain user confidence. One of the salient features of the user-centric visualization is it presents machine learning methods with explainability metrics. A simplified version of the user-centric visualization was presented to 32 users with varying levels of machine learning expertise. Feedback was solicited to test the hypothesis that the app contained sufficient explainability and that the users would trust the algorithm. Overall, the app was positively received, and the hypothesis was supported. This report discusses the trust-but-verify framework – a potential approach to build user trust artificial intelligence. The framework discusses trust from the human level to artificial intelligence level. The fundamental premise of the trust but verify framework is derived from an observation of nuclear safety culture (i.e., nuclear power plant personnel do not rely on a singular source of data to make a decision). This also ties back to the user-centric visualization that presents different levels of information to achieve both explainability and trustworthiness of artificial intelligence. Even so, the adoption of artificial intelligence and machine learning in the nuclear industry faces additional barriers, namely regulatory and stakeholder readiness. To overcome these challenges, new solutions must gain regulatory approval and cater to stakeholder needs. The Nuclear Regulatory Committee has a 5-year strategic plan which prepares them for reviewing artificial intelligence technologies in licensee submissions. Early and frequent engagement with the regulator is encouraged. Additionally, artificial intelligence solutions should incorporate human-in-the-loop considerations and offer explainability. Stakeholders must prepare by hiring or training staff to adapt to advancing technology in everyday plant tasks.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Robust Explanations using Diverse Adversarially Trained Ensembles, Multi-Modal Contrastive Learning, and Attribution-based Confidence Metrics

The primary objective of this project is to strengthen the trustworthiness of AI systems by designing algorithms that make their internal decision-making processes more understandable to human users. This involves creating clear, interpretable explanations for AI decisions and developing metrics to assess these explanations' validity and reliability. Significant progress has been achieved through (i) developing symbolic explanations, (ii) generating meaningful interpretive insights, (iii) establishing accuracy and confidence metrics, and (iv) devising methods to evaluate the knowledge boundaries of AI models. To date, the research findings have been shared in peer-reviewed publications, with accompanying scientific and technical information (STI) detailed below.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Retrospective on decadal progress of the NOAA/NPS ocean noise reference station network

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), in partnership with the U.S. National Park Service (NPS), established the Ocean Noise Reference Station Network (NRS) in 2014 as a foundational component of NOAA’s Ocean Noise Strategy. This long-term effort aims to characterize baseline ocean ambient sound conditions across diverse marine environments and to inform management of noise impacts on protected species and habitats within U.S. waters. The NRS is now composed of 13 autonomous passive acoustic monitoring stations strategically positioned across the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), extending from Arctic regions to tropical waters in depths ranging from 33 to 4,790 m. These locations include several National Marine Sanctuaries and National Parks, such as the recently designated Chumash Heritage National Marine Sanctuary off the coast of California. Each station is equipped to continuously sample low-frequency underwater sound at five kHz, enabling the detection of anthropogenic, geophysical, and biological acoustic signals. To date the network has sampled over 72 years of calibrated acoustic data. The spatial breadth and consistent methodology of the NRS allow for comparative acoustic assessments across diverse marine ecosystems. In addition to applied research functions, the NRS has served as a platform for education and training, offering opportunities for students to develop skills for marine science and data analysis. Looking forward, the NRS project team is focused on network expansion, improved data delivery, and broader integration with collaborative scientific initiatives. NRS recordings are being archived in partnership with NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information to enhance accessibility and long-term utility. Efforts are underway to develop standardized metadata and summary products to accompany raw audio files, making the data more usable for a wide range of stakeholders in the ocean science community. The NRS is evolving into a fully integrated national framework for ocean sound monitoring that supports scientific inquiry, management decision-making, national security interests, and public engagement with ocean acoustic environments.

Long-term monitoring↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Hybrid Reinforcement Learning-MPC Approach for Distribution System Critical Load Restoration

This paper proposes a hybrid control approach for distribution system critical load restoration, combining deep reinforcement learning (RL) and model predictive control (MPC) aiming at maximizing total restored load following an extreme event. RL determines a policy for quantifying operating reserve requirements, thereby hedging against uncertainty, while MPC models grid operations incorporating RL policy actions (i.e., reserve requirements), renewable (wind and solar) power predictions, and load demand forecasts. We formulate the reserve requirement determination problem as a sequential decision-making problem based on the Markov Decision Process (MDP) and design an RL learning environment based on the OpenAI Gym framework and MPC simulation. The RL agent reward and MPC objective function aim to maximize and monotonically increase total restored load and minimize load shedding and renewable power curtailment. The RL algorithm is trained offline using a historical forecast of renewable generation and load demand. The method is tested using a modified IEEE 13-bus distribution test feeder containing wind turbine, photovoltaic, microturbine, and battery. Case studies demonstrated that the proposed method outperforms other policies with static operating reserves.

distribution system↗