Bayesian Attack Detection and Recommendation of Actions for Operational Response (BAD REACTOR) Final Scientific / Technical Report
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This report summarizes a research project conducted at the Physics Department’s Zebra Pulsed Power Laboratory (ZPPL) at the University of Nevada Reno, aimed at developing short-pulse laser-based diagnostics to probe pulsed-power-driven warm dense matter. ZPPL combines a MegaAmpere (MA) pulsed power generator, Zebra, and a relativistic intensity, short-pulse laser, Leopard, offering a unique university-scale platform for high energy density physics, laboratory astrophysics, and inertial fusion energy research. The project focused on establishing a hard X-ray radiographic capability using high-intensity, short-pulse laser-generated X-rays to probe warm dense matter created by the Zebra current. Initial experiments produced X-ray radiographs of a static (cold) aluminum wire using silver and gold foil and wire targets, but intense background radiation from Zebra shots overwhelmed the laser-produced X-rays. To mitigate this, a radiationhardened detector housing was designed and implemented. Additional diagnostic, including a filter stack bremsstrahlung spectrometer and an X-ray pinhole camera, were developed to characterize laser-produced hard X-ray spectra and locate hard X-ray sources in the vacuum chamber. These revealed that strong hard X-rays (> 20 keV) originated near the anode cap, bombarded by energetic electrons. Due to laser unavailability during some experiments, detector performance was successfully tested using hard X-ray sources from the Zebra current, demonstrating their readiness for coupled experiments. The project supported one Ph.D. student (Dr. Lei Chen), who conducted experimental and numerical research, and provided training opportunities and data for three undergraduate senior theses.
ABSTRACT Powerful outflows are thought to play a critical role in galaxy evolution and black hole growth. We present the first large-scale systematic study of ionized outflows in paired galaxies and post-mergers compared to a robust control sample of isolated galaxies. We isolate the impact of the merger environment to determine if outflow properties depend on merger stage. Our sample contains ∼4000 paired galaxies and ∼250 post-mergers in the local universe (0.02 ≤ z ≤ 0.2) from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 7 (SDSS DR 7) matched in stellar mass, redshift, local density of galaxies, and [O iii] λ5007 luminosity to a control sample of isolated galaxies. By fitting the [O iii] λ5007 line, we find ionized outflows in ∼15 per cent of our entire sample. Outflows are much rarer in star-forming galaxies compared to active galactic nuclei (AGNs), and outflow incidence and velocity increase with [O iii] λ5007 luminosity. Outflow incidence is significantly elevated in the optical + mid-infrared selected AGN compared to purely optical AGN; over 60 per cent show outflows at the highest luminosities ($L_{\mathrm{[OIII]~\lambda 5007}}\, \gtrsim$ 1042 erg s−1), suggesting mid-infrared AGN selection favours galaxies with powerful outflows, at least for higher [O iii] λ5007 luminosities. However, we find no statistically significant difference in outflow incidence, velocity, and luminosity in mergers compared to isolated galaxies, and there is no dependence on merger stage. Therefore, while interactions are predicted to drive gas inflows and subsequently trigger nuclear star formation and accretion activity, when the power source of the outflow is controlled for, the merging environment has no further impact on the large-scale ionized outflows as traced by [O iii] λ5007.
Increasing quantities of renewable energy generation has yielded a need for greater energy storage capacity in power systems. Thermal storage in variable air volume (VAV) heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) in commercial buildings has been identified as an inexpensive source of grid storage, but the true costs are not known. Recent literature explores the inefficiency associated with providing grid services from these HVAC-based demand response (DR) resources by employing a battery analogy to calculate round-trip efficiency (RTE). Results vary significantly across studies and in some cases reported efficiencies are strikingly low. This article has three objectives to address these prior results. First, we synthesize and expand on insights into existing literature by systematically exploring the potential causes for the discrepancies in results. We reinforce previous work indicating baseline modeling may drive differences across studies and deduce that control accuracy plays a role in the major differences between experiments and simulation. Second, we discuss why the RTE metric is problematic for DR applications, discuss another proposed metric, additional energy consumption (AEC), and propose an extension, which we call uninstructed energy consumption (UEC), to evaluate DR performance. Finally, we explore the merits of different metrics using experimental data and highlight UEC's reduced sensitivity to the characteristics of the DR signal than previously proposed metrics.
Demand-side management/demand response (DSM/DR) are key strategies for mitigating the inherent variability in electricity generation rates by renewable sources. This article represents—to our knowledge—the first foray into assessing the DR potential of ammonia plants. Ammonia plants are interesting candidates for DR initiatives because of their significant electricity use (for operating compressors driving the synthesis loop) and the ability to store the ammonia product relatively easily and safely. Our approach is based on formulating and solving an optimal DR scheduling problem for an ammonia plant while accounting for the process dynamics. To this end, we introduce a new Hammerstein–Wiener-inspired modeling framework based on injecting linear dynamics in a first-principles static nonlinear model of the process. The results are encouraging; for the cases considered, peak-time power consumption decreases between 3.57% and 7.40%, coupled with 1.39% to 3.70% reductions in operating cost.
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The transformation of electricity systems into more sustainable configurations brought some new challenges. The uncertain, intermittent, and variable nature of renewable energy sources require a significant amount of load demand flexibility, in which grid-interactive buildings (GEBs) are important flexible assets for electricity systems. In this regard, many demand response (DR) tools have been developed to harness this demand flexibility. However, such tools are mostly simulation-based or deal with a single load, which may not be sufficient to demonstrate their effectiveness. Towards this end, this paper presents a real-world field implementation and testing of a hierarchical model-free transactive DR control approach on actual GEBs. The control implementation incorporates elements of virtual battery, game theory, and model-free control mechanisms. The proposed approach was tested using a total of five GEBs, each having three zones. The results show that the proposed approach can mostly achieve all intended objectives, including flexibility estimation, peak load reduction, power tracking, and controlling GEBs while maintaining occupants’ comfort.
A unique attribute of the nuclear industry is the extent by which designers, developers, operators, and regulators pay attention to demonstrating the safety case. The safety case for nuclear systems is a written, traceable expression of safety, demonstrating the system’s protective measures against uncontrolled radiological releases. The nuclear installation resiliency or safety takes overriding priority over function and performance. The preparation of the safety case heavily relies on extensive experimental campaigns that challenge the target design under a spectrum of postulated accident scenarios. For safety reasons, these experiments are typically conducted in sub-scale test apparatuses intended to reproduce the postulated accident scenarios and event sequences realistically but subject to proven similarity criteria, often referred to as scaling analyses. Since the dawn of the nuclear industry, significant resources have been committed to the construction and operation of such test facilities and a massive amount of data has been generated. Such test data have been and are still used to validate the fundamental assumptions of nuclear power plant phenomena. As we move into the digital world, capturing this multi-decades worth of information in a transparent, easily accessible, and usable manner for the public and industry stakeholders is of paramount importance. Over the last few years FPoliSolutions has been actively developing an enterprise digital data ontology platform (FPoliDON) intended to do just that. The concept was introduced in a paper at the previous NURETH edition and has been significantly enhanced since. With the vision of helping designers use the data to assess their safety case evaluation models, the platform was designed not only to ontologically organize the experimental data, but also to guide the user in the complex analytics associated with the interpretation and use of such test results. A new feature which has been recently added is the ability for the user to access a library of sophisticated mathematical procedures for performing scaling analyses. For this purpose, the Dynamical System Scaling (DSS) procedure invented by Dr. Jose’ Reyes was formulated as one of the services in the digital platform. These methods have been demonstrated to provide an excelled mathematical apparatus to identify similarity criteria or quantify distortions between measured data and the target prototypical conditions. Moreover, DSS can provide a level of synthesis across SETs and IETs which has the promise to yield efficiency in the evaluation code assessment activities. This is often a daunting and expensive task to set up evaluation models that support the safety case of current and future nuclear power plants.
Thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs) have shown great potential for demand response (DR) in electric grid operations. However, it has been commonly seen that DR events using TCLs may cause load synchronization and unwanted oscillatory effects, especially in homogeneous populations. In an attempt to mitigate the negative impacts of DR events, a decentralized method is proposed that modifies each thermostat behavior based on the activity of a small number of nearby TCLs. This feedback introduces the possibility of instability in the aggregate behavior. A stability analysis is performed on a linearized model of the aggregate system and the results of that analysis compared to simulation results. The proposed modification of thermostat behavior results in fourfold reduction in the post-DR peak while suppressing ensuing oscillations at the expense of a modest increase in compressor cycling. Further, the linearized model also provides insight into the aggregate behavior of the population.
The goal of this project is to develop advanced methods for day-ahead net-load forecasting, by leveraging the state-of-the-art machine learning techniques. The developed models produce both point and probabilistic forecasts for a variety of use cases, and are versatile to work with different types of data sets. The innovation lies in the novel design of the architectures, leveraging the most recent advances in machine learning that have not been explored in power systems, accompanied by techniques in the broader artificial intelligence fields such as fuzzy systems. This project has achieved the following accomplishments: (1) preprocessing of over 10 data sets covering varying geographical regions, time horizons, and system levels, which form a robust foundation for training and evaluating forecasting models across a wide range of realistic grid scenarios; (2) development of an interactive web app that enables exploratory analysis of load and generation data, and supports better understanding of data trends, anomalies, and correlations, facilitating model development and stakeholder engagement; (3) implementation of over 10 benchmark models for point and probabilistic forecasting, which include a mix of conventional machine learning methods and state-of-the-art deep learning approaches, providing a comprehensive baseline for performance comparison and validation of the proposed models; (4) development of a fuzzy system based gradient boosting model, tailored for small (less than 3 years) data sets, which achieves a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 4% for point forecasting and a 20% improvement in average pinball loss for probabilistic forecasting; (5) development of a Transformer (a state-of-the-art deep learning architecture) based neural network model, tailored for large (3 years or more) data sets, which achieves a MAPE of 2% for point forecasting and a 20% improvement in average pinball loss for probabilistic forecasting; (6) development of a methodology for quantifying DR potential, and extensions of the previous models for multi-target forecasting of net load and DR potential, which achieve a MAPE of 10% for DR potential.
A transition from generation on demand to consumption on demand is one of the solutions to overcome the many limitations associated with the higher penetration of renewable energy sources. Such a transition, however, requires a considerable amount of load flexibility in the demand side. Demand response (DR) programs can reveal and utilize this demand flexibility by enabling the participation of a large number of grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEB). Existing approaches on DR require significant modelling or training efforts, are computationally expensive, and do not guarantee the satisfaction of end users. To address the aforementioned limitations, this software code considers a scalable hierarchical model-free transactional control approach that incorporates elements of virtual battery, game theory, and model-free control (MFC) mechanisms. The developed approach separates the control mechanism into upper and lower levels. The MFC modulates the flexible GEB in the lower level with guaranteed thermal comfort of end users in response to the optimal pricing and power signals determined in the upper layer using a Stackelberg game integrated with aggregate virtual battery constraints. Additionally, the usage of MFC necessitates less burdensome computational and communication requirements, thus, it is easily deployable even on small, embedded devices. This software code enables the use of residential and small-size commercial buildings to offer a potentially substantial source of ancillary grid services that are currently underutilized. A hierarchical, model-free transactive building control provides a smooth interface between the grid service requests of utilities and the reliable control required by participating buildings. Model-free control, which supports distributed control architecture, will be a more scalable solution that can be deployed in neighborhood-size systems as well as individual buildings. The proposed approach contributes to the body of knowledge on two main aspects. First, it couples the MFC with the game-theoretic control and proposes a scalable model-free transactive control approach. MFC does not require any modeling effort or model training for the various building loads. This is very beneficial since deriving an accurate model for every single unit participating in DR programs and obtaining all the parameters about the units (e.g., thermal coefficients, standby losses) are infeasible. Also, MFC is computationally efficient, easily deployable even on small, embedded devices, and can be implemented in real time. Second, it integrates the concept of virtual battery into DR via the Stackelberg game. The concept of virtual battery enables efficient coordination and aggregation of a large number of flexible GEB with guaranteed thermal comfort of end users.
Abstract Organic solar cells (OSCs) process fascinating solution‐printing capability to achieve low‐cost and large‐scale manufacture. However, the rapid power conversion efficiency (PCE) decay with active layer thickness enlargement inhibits the implement of OSCs’ potential advantages. To overcome the bottlenecks of PCE decay in thick active layer OSCs, the electrical doping with componential selectivity in bulk heterojunction (BHJ) film is achieved by introducing a solid solvation additive. Benefiting from the higher exciton splitting efficiency together with the longer drift (L dr ) and diffusion (L diff ) lengths, an OSC with 100 nm BHJ film demonstrates a PCE increment from 16.44% to 18.24% with prolonged dark and illuminated storage stabilities. Applying the solid solvation assisted (SSA) doping method in the OSCs with 500 nm active layer, the PCE significantly increases by 31.9%, from the original value of 11.79% to 15.55%. It further improves to 15.84% in a ternary blend thick‐film device, which is the record value to the best of our knowledge. Besides, the SSA doping narrows the PCE gap between the 0.04 and 1 cm 2 devices. All improvements demonstrate the great potential of SSA doping for OSC commercial manufacture, since it optimizes the photovoltaic performance under all practical conditions of long‐term, thick‐film, and large‐area.
Dr. Cecil Lubitz passed away on March 5, 2021 at his home in upstate New York. A graduate of the Class of 1945 from the Naval Academy, Cecil served in the US Navy until 1947 after which he earned a MS in electrical engineering (1949) and a PhD in Physics (1960) from the University of Michigan. Following graduate school, Cecil came to work at Knolls Atomic Power Laboratory (KAPL) on applied nuclear physics in the Naval Nuclear Propulsion Program (NNPP). Cecil worked at KAPL for 54 years and had an impactful career with many substantial contributions to the NNPP, national and global nuclear data communities.
Energy Quest: Sitka’s Path to 2050 is a game based public engagement tool developed as part of the Sitka Community Renewable Energy Strategy and the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Transitions Initiative Partnership Project Cohort 3. Designed for Sitka’s isolated island microgrid, which is powered primarily by hydropower and depends on imported diesel for backup, the game translated complex long term energy planning questions into an interactive format. In facilitated workshops, residents built energy roadmaps to 2050, explored tradeoffs, and expressed priorities around four themes: affordability, reliability, self sufficiency, and innovation. Across sessions, participants showed strong support for increasing local self sufficiency and resilience, even when this required balancing near term affordability with long term investments. They emphasized reducing dependence on imported diesel, making better use of existing hydropower, and considering new renewable generation such as solar, wind, and additional hydropower. Survey and game responses also highlighted interest in using surplus hydropower to support new industries, expanding electrification of heating and transportation, and exploring emerging technologies and green fuels. The report organizes these findings into four scenario themes to guide Sitka’s 2050 energy planning. Affordability focuses on managing rate impacts, efficiency, and conservation. Reliability addresses diversified generation, backup power, and energy security. Self sufficiency emphasizes distributed generation and reduced reliance on imported fuels. Innovation explores new technologies, marine based energy solutions, and low carbon fuels. By grounding future planning in these community derived themes, Energy Quest shows how a game based approach can make technical energy planning more accessible and inclusive for remote communities. For questions about the game board and piece production email Dr. Sarah Troise (sarah.troise@pnnl.gov)
As buildings account for over 75% of U.S. electricity use, effectively managing their loads can greatly facilitate the transition towards a clean, reliable grid. Grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs) combine efficiency and demand flexibility with smart technologies and communication to provide occupant comfort and productivity while serving the grid as a distributed energy resource (DER). In turn, GEBs can play a key role in ensuring access to an affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern U.S. electric power system. Their national adoption could provide $\$$100-200 billion in U.S. electric power system cost savings over the next two decades. The associated reduction in CO 2 emissions is estimated at 6% per year by 2030 (DOE 2021). Building codes represent standard design practice in the construction industry and continually evolve to include advanced technologies and innovative practices. Historically, national model energy codes establish minimum efficiency requirements for new construction (ICC 2020). Expanding codes to support GEB capabilities is a pivotal step towards realizing demand flexibility in support of a clean grid by addressing capabilities to improve interoperability between smart building systems, the grid, and renewable energy resources. Realizing GEBs requires buildings with automated demand response (DR) capabilities that enable standardized communication with or control of, subject to explicit consumer consent, energy smart appliances or home energy management systems. This is achieved through direct or indirect (i.e., via an aggregator) communication between appliances and the electric grid. Energy codes can also support DR communication standardization and advance the deployment of building-integrated DERs such as energy storage, generation, and electric vehicles (EVs). Incorporating automated DR capabilities in energy codes provides many benefits to the consumers. Specifically, it aligns building electric load demand with intermittent renewable energy source availability, decreases peak load on the electric grid, allows buildings to respond to utility price signals, supports electrical network reliability and market growth of products and processes aligned with clean economic growth. The incorporation of DR into the model residential energy codes was considered for both the 2021 and 2024 International Energy Conservation Code (IECC) code development cycles. The approved DR measures in the 2021 cycle were removed in response to appeals (ICC 2020). Updated language was presented for consideration again for the 2024 IECC, where it was negotiated and again approved, and again removed in response to appeals (ICC 2024). This resulted in many sections, including sections on demand responsive controls, being moved to the credits options or an appendix as a voluntary application. This technical brief updates the proposed DR components such that they can be considered by states and local governments for direct incorporation into their codes, as well as for future IECC energy code development. The proposal refinements are intended to support consistency in approach and provide a degree of certainty for building owners, designers, contractors, manufacturers, and building and fire safety professionals. The scope of this technical brief includes three strategies for DR in residential buildings: 1) smart thermostats with demand-responsive control, 2) electric water heating incorporating demand-responsive controls and communication and 3) grid Integrated solar and energy storage systems.
This project was part of the “Center for Integrated Simulation of Fusion Relevant RF Actuators” SciDAC-4 project, led by Dr. Paul Bonoli (MIT). Rather than use an acronym (CISFRRFA), the project will be referred to in this document as the “RF-SciDAC4”. The larger SciDAC-4 project goals were to: 1. Develop an integrated simulation of the antenna + sheath + scrape-off-layer + core plasma system which fully utilizes leadership class computing resources to move towards a quantitative predictive capability for the response to RF power. 2. Work closely with the SciDAC-4 Whole Device Modeling (WDM) community to make both our new code development efforts, as well as the established hierarchy of RF tools, available within their environment, and to utilize WDM technologies to implement the couplings below. 3. Validate this predictive capability on appropriately diagnosed experiments including dedicated RF test stands, linear devices, and existing tokamaks. 4. Use these tools to inform design of robust, impurity-mitigating RF heating and current drive sources for future fusion devices.
Muscle stem cells (MuSC) are considered as a reliable source of therapeutic cells to restore diseased muscles. However in most cases, injected MuSC-derived myoblasts are rapidly destroyed by the host immune response, which impairs the beneficial effect. By contrast, human mesenchymal stromal cells (MSC), have been reported to exhibit potent immune regulatory functions. Thus, we investigated, in vitro, the multipotent differentiation- and immunosuppressive capacities of human myoblasts and compared these features with those of human MSC. Myoblasts shared numerous cell surface markers with MSC, including CD73, CD90, CD105 and CD146. Both cell type were negative for HLA-DR and CD45, CD34 and CD31. CD56, a myogenic marker, was expressed by myoblasts exclusively. Myoblasts displayed multipotent potential capabilities with differentiation in chondrocytes, adipocytes and osteoblasts in vitro. Myoblasts also inhibited allogenic T cell proliferation in vitro in a dose dependent manner, very similarly to MSC. This effect was partly mediated via the activation of indolamine 2,3 dioxygenase enzyme (IDO) after IFNγ exposure. Altogether, these data demonstrate that human myoblasts can differentiate in various mesenchymal linages and exhibit powerful immunosuppressive properties in vitro. Such features may open new therapeutic strategies for MuSC-derived myoblasts.
Alstom Grid Inc’s (ALSTOM Grid) Research Design and Development (RD&D) project, “Microgrid RD&D and Testing for PIDC and PWD” was conducted in partnership with Philadelphia Industrial Development Corporation (PIDC) in its role as owner’s representative and manager of a vibrant commercial and industrial community, involving critical loads in one of the nation’s largest unregulated, non-military electric distribution systems. PIDC needed to develop solutions to address the planned considerable growth in Distributed Energy Resources (DER) Combined Heat Plan (CHP), Renewables, Distributed Generation (DG), Demand Response (DR) and Storage. In supporting the corporate objective, PIDC needed a new class of control systems for achieving enhanced energy resilience of their critical infrastructure operation during adverse conditions together with carbon emission reduction and optimization of the overall system operation economics through system energy efficiency during normal and emergency operating conditions. Additionally, PIDC anticipated the need to support a new class of commercial agreements with tenants, such as those for Urban Outfitters, for guaranteed one hundred percent (100%) grid resilience and electric power supply in case of utility outage conditions. The project was designed to address the challenges for the commercial & industrial (C&I) communities. But more importantly, the project included development of scalable and replicable solutions intended to target a multitude of the nation’s electric distribution communities. The project researched and developed a fully comprehensive prototype consisting of microgrid operation and control functions including islanding, synchronization and reconnection, protection, voltage, frequency, and power quality management, dispatch, and system resiliency. The project provided the foundation required to significantly enhance the overall national objectives set by the DOE for energy resilience, emission reduction and system energy efficiency improvement, including protection of critical infrastructure and public resources.