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The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and Pilot Studies

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a major international effort linking the climate, crop, and economic modeling communities with cutting-edge information technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next generation of climate impact projections for the agricultural sector. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Analyses of the agricultural impacts of climate variability and change require a transdisciplinary effort to consistently link state-of-the-art climate scenarios to crop and economic models. Crop model outputs are aggregated as inputs to regional and global economic models to determine regional vulnerabilities, changes in comparative advantage, price effects, and potential adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector. Climate, Crop Modeling, Economics, and Information Technology Team Protocols are presented to guide coordinated climate, crop modeling, economics, and information technology research activities around the world, along with AgMIP Cross-Cutting Themes that address uncertainty, aggregation and scaling, and the development of Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) to enable testing of climate change adaptations in the context of other regional and global trends. The organization of research activities by geographic region and specific crops is described, along with project milestones. Pilot results demonstrate AgMIP's role in assessing climate impacts with explicit representation of uncertainties in climate scenarios and simulations using crop and economic models. An intercomparison of wheat model simulations near Obregón, Mexico reveals inter-model differences in yield sensitivity to [CO2] with model uncertainty holding approximately steady as concentrations rise, while uncertainty related to choice of crop model increases with rising temperatures. Wheat model simulations with midcentury climate scenarios project a slight decline in absolute yields that is more sensitive to selection of crop model than to global climate model, emissions scenario, or climate scenario downscaling method. A comparison of regional and national-scale economic simulations finds a large sensitivity of projected yield changes to the simulations' resolved scales. Finally, a global economic model intercomparison example demonstrates that improvements in the understanding of agriculture futures arise from integration of the range of uncertainty in crop, climate, and economic modeling results in multi-model assessments.

Rosenzweig, C.↗

Pathways and Challenges to Innovation in Aerospace

This paper explores impediments to innovation in aerospace and suggests how successful pathways from other industries can be adopted to facilitate greater innovation. Because of its nature, space exploration would seem to be a ripe field of technical innovation. However, engineering can also be a frustratingly conservative endeavor when the realities of cost and risk are included. Impediments like the "find the fault" engineering culture, the treatment of technical risk as almost always evaluated in terms of negative impact, the difficult to account for expansive Moore's Law growth when making predictions, and the stove-piped structural organization of most large aerospace companies and federally funded research laboratories tend to inhibit cross-cutting technical innovation. One successful example of a multi-use cross cutting application that can scale with Moore's Law is the Evolutionary Computational Methods (ECM) technique developed at the Jet Propulsion Lab for automated spectral retrieval. Future innovations like computational engineering and automated design optimization can potentially redefine space exploration, but will require learning lessons from successful innovators.

Terrile, Richard J.↗

Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios for Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation: Chapter - 5

The global change research community has recognized that new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to implement impact and vulnerability assessment where precise prediction is not possible, and also that these scenarios need to be logically consistent across local, regional, and global scales. For global climate models, representative concentration pathways (RCPs) have been developed that provide a range of time-series of atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations into the future. For impact and vulnerability assessment, new socio-economic pathway and scenario concepts have also been developed, with leadership from the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC).This chapter presents concepts and methods for development of regional representative agricultural pathways (RAOs) and scenarios that can be used for agricultural model intercomparison, improvement, and impact assessment in a manner consistent with the new global pathways and scenarios. The development of agriculture-specific pathways and scenarios is motivated by the need for a protocol-based approach to climate impact, vulnerability, and adaptation assessment. Until now, the various global and regional models used for agricultural-impact assessment have been implemented with individualized scenarios using various data and model structures, often without transparent documentation, public availability, and consistency across disciplines. These practices have reduced the credibility of assessments, and also hampered the advancement of the science through model intercomparison, improvement, and synthesis of model results across studies. The recognition of the need for better coordination among the agricultural modeling community, including the development of standard reference scenarios with adequate agriculture-specific detail led to the creation of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) in 2010. The development of RAPs is one of the cross-cutting themes in AgMIP's work plan, and has been the subject of ongoing work by AgMIP since its creation.

agriculture↗

Exploring NASA Human Spaceflight and Pioneering Scenarios

The life cycle cost analysis of space exploration scenarios is explored via a merger of (1) scenario planning, separating context and (2) modeling and analysis of specific content. Numerous scenarios are presented, leading to cross-cutting recommendations addressing life cycle costs, productivity, and approaches applicable to any scenarios. Approaches address technical and non-technical factors.

cost modeling estimation↗

Exploring NASA Human Spaceflight and Pioneering Scenarios

The life cycle cost analysis of space exploration scenarios is explored via a merger of (1) scenario planning, separating context and (2) modeling and analysis of specific content. Numerous scenarios are presented, leading to cross-cutting recommendations addressing life cycle costs, productivity, and approaches applicable to any scenarios. Approaches address technical and non-technical factors.

space systems life cycle costs↗

Insights into the Martian Regolith from Martian Meteorite Northwest Africa 7034

Everything we know about sedimentary processes on Mars is gleaned from remote sensing observations. Here we report insights from meteorite Northwest Africa (NWA) 7034, which is a water-rich martian regolith breccia that hosts both igneous and sedimentary clasts. The sedimentary clasts in NWA 7034 are poorly-sorted clastic siltstones that we refer to as protobreccia clasts. These protobreccia clasts record aqueous alteration process that occurred prior to breccia formation. The aqueous alteration appears to have occurred at relatively low Eh, high pH conditions based on the co-precipitation of pyrite and magnetite, and the concomitant loss of SiO2 from the system. To determine the origin of the NWA 7034 breccia, we examined the textures and grain-shape characteristics of NWA 7034 clasts. The shapes of the clasts are consistent with rock fragmentation in the absence of transport. Coupled with the clast size distribution, we interpret the protolith of NWA 7034 to have been deposited by atmospheric rainout resulting from pyroclastic eruptions and/or asteroid impacts. Cross-cutting and inclusion relationships and U-Pb data from zircon, baddelleyite, and apatite indicate NWA 7034 lithification occurred at 1.4-1.5 Ga, during a short-lived hydrothermal event at 600-700 C that was texturally imprinted upon the submicron groundmass. The hydrothermal event caused Pb-loss from apatite and U-rich metamict zircons, and it caused partial transformation of pyrite to submicron mixtures of magnetite and maghemite, indicating the fluid had higher Eh than the fluid that caused pyrite-magnetite precipitation in the protobreccia clasts. NWA 7034 also hosts ancient 4.4 Ga crustal materials in the form of baddelleyites and zircons, providing up to a 2.9 Ga record of martian geologic history. This work demonstrates the incredible value of sedimentary basins as scientific targets for Mars sample return missions, but it also highlights the importance of targeting samples that have not been overprinted by metamorphic processes, which is the case for NWA 7034.

McCubbin, Francis M.↗

Noctis Landing: A Proposed Landing Site/Exploration Zone for Human Missions to the Surface of Mars

The proposed Noctis Landing Site/Exploration Zone (LS/EZ) is shown in Figure 1. Our preliminary study suggests that the proposed site meets all key Science and Resources (incl. Civil Engineering) requirements. The site is of significant interest, as the EZ not only offers a large number and wide range of regions of interest (ROIs) for short-term exploration, it is also located strategically at the crossroads between Tharsis and Valles Marineris, which are key for long-term exploration. The proposed site contains Regions of Interest (ROIs) that meet the following Science requirements: -­‐ Access to (1) deposits with a high preservation potential for evidence of past habitability and fossil biosignatures and (2) sites that are promising for present habitability. The site presents a wide variety of ROIs qith likely aqueous features and deposits, including sinous channels and valleys, slope gullies, lobate debris aprons, impact craters with lobate ejecta flows, and "bathtub ring" deposits. Neutron spectrometry also suggests hydrogen is present within the topmost 0.3 m or so of 4 to 10 wt% WEH (Water Equivalent Hydrogen). -­‐ Noachian and/or Hesperian rocks in a stratigraphic context that have a high likelihood of containing trapped atmospheric gases. Collapsed canyon rim material with preserved stratigraphy is abundantly present and accessible. -­‐ Exposures of at least two crustal units that have regional or global extents, that are suitable for radiometric dating, and that have relative ages that sample a significant range of martian geological time. Canyons floors in Ius Chasma, Tithonium Chasma, and plateau tops on Tharsis and in Sinai Planum offer access to distinct crustal units of regional extent. -­‐ Access to outcrops with linked morphological and/or geochemical signatures indicative of aqueous or groundwater/ mineral interactions. Iron and sulfur-bearing deposits on canyon floors in Noctis Labyrinthus, and in Ius Chasma (IC) and Tithonium Chasma (TC) offer many such outcrop options. -­‐ Identifiable stratigraphic contacts and cross-cutting relationships from which relative ages can be determined. In place and collapsed canyon walls in NL, TC, and IC offer such opportunities. -­‐ Other types of ROIs include access points to surrounding plateau top areas for longer term regional exploration. A key attribute of the proposed Noctic Landing site is its strategic location to allow the shortest possible surface excusions to Tharsis and Valles Marineris (VM). VM is the feature and region on Mars that exposes the longest record of Mars' geology and evolution through time. Tharsis is the region of Mars that has experienced the longest and most extensive volcanic history, and might still be volcanically active. Some of the youngest lava flows on Mars have been identified on the western flanks of the Tharsis Bulge, i.e., within driving range of future longrange (500 - 1000 km) pressurized rover traverses. The proposed site also contains ROIs that offer the following Resources (incl. Civil Engineering) characteristics: -­‐ Access to raw material that exhibits the potential to (1) be used as feedstock for water-generating in situ resource utilization (ISRU) processes and (2) yield significant quantities (greater than 100 MT) of water. The raw material is likely in the form of hydrated minerals, and possibly ice/regolith mix. The top of the raw material deposit is at the surface. -­‐ Access to a region where infrastructure can be emplaced or constructed. This region is less than 5 km from the LS and contains flat, stable terrain. The region exhibits evidence for an abundant source of loose regolith. Several deep pits in the area combined with the availability of sand suggests that some natural terrain features can be adapted for construction purposes. -­‐ Access to raw material that exhibits the potential to be used as metal feedstock for ISRU and construction purposes. Iron and sulfur-rich mineral surface deposits have been identified in CRISM data in many locations in this area. Noctis Landing is the lowest-altitude location on Mars that straddles both the Tharsis region (above average geothermal gradients) and Valles Marineris (minimal crustal thickness from surface (valley floor) to a subsurface liquid water table. Noctis Landing has the potential for being an ideal site for eventual deep drilling on Mars to access deep subsurface liquid water and potentially encountering extant life. Available data remains insufficient to fully qualify the Noctis Landing site. Additional remote sensing data (visible, Near and Mid-IR, and radar) and surface reconnaissance via a high-mobility robotic rover are recommended. In particular, it will be important to assess the trafficability of the site, and its potential for yielding water and metals as a resource. Access to plateau tops from the Noctis Landing site on the canyon floor should be demonstrated. Future exploration of the site would also be enhanced significantly by the availability of robotic (tele-operatable) surveying and sample-collecting drones. Testing of the use of such collaborative science and exploration technologies should be conducted at terrestrial sites such as the Haughton-Mars Project site on Devon Island, High Arctic, among others. Note: Noctis Landing is not an official Mars nomenclature name for this location. Because the area of the proposed LS/EZ had no name, and because it is close to Noctis Labyrinthus to the West while being distinct from it, the provisional name Noctis Landing is proposed. Noctis means night in Latin.

Lee, Pascal↗

Optical Communications and Sensor Demonstration

The Optical Communications and Sensor Demonstration (OCSD) project addresses two cross-cutting capabilities of value to many future small spacecraft missions: high-speed optical transmission of data and small spacecraft proximity operations. Optical data rates demonstrated by OCSD are expected to be 200 megabits persecond (Mbs) or higher, a factor of 100 increase over current high-end CubeSat communications systems. The proximity sensors developed for this mission enable relative position measurement between two small satellites - a capability not previously demonstrated.

High-speed optical transmission of data↗

Electrodynamic Dust Shield for Space Applications

The International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG) has chosen dust mitigation technology as a Global Exploration Roadmap (GER) critical technology need in order to reduce life cycle cost and risk, and increase the probability of mission success. NASA has also included Particulate Contamination Prevention and Mitigation as a cross-cutting technology to be developed for contamination prevention, cleaning and protection. This technology has been highlighted due to the detrimental effect of dust on both human and robotic missions. During manned Apollo missions, dust caused issues with both equipment and crew. Contamination of equipment caused many issues including incorrect instrument readings and increased temperatures due to masking of thermal radiators. The astronauts were directly affected by dust that covered space suits, obscured face shields and later propagated to the cabin and into the crew's eyes and lungs. Robotic missions on Mars were affected when solar panels were obscured by dust thereby reducing the effectiveness of the solar panels. The Electrostatics and Surface Physics Lab in Swamp Works at the Kennedy Space Center has been developing an Electrodynamic Dust Shield (EDS) to remove dust from multiple surfaces, including glass shields and thermal radiators. This technology has been tested in lab environments and has evolved over several years. Tests of the technology include reduced gravity flights (one-sixth g) in which Apollo Lunar dust samples were successfully removed from glass shields while under vacuum (10(exp -6) kPa).

ISECG↗

Electrodynamic Dust Shield for Space Applications

The International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG) has chosen dust mitigation technology as a Global Exploration Roadmap (GER) critical technology need in order to reduce life cycle cost and risk, and increase the probability of mission success. NASA has also included Particulate Contamination Prevention and Mitigation as a cross-cutting technology to be developed for contamination prevention, cleaning and protection. This technology has been highlighted due to the detrimental effect of dust on both human and robotic missions. During manned Apollo missions, dust caused issues with both equipment and crew. Contamination of equipment caused many issues including incorrect instrument readings and increased temperatures due to masking of thermal radiators. The astronauts were directly affected by dust that covered space suits, obscured face shields and later propagated to the cabin and into the crew's eyes and lungs. Robotic missions on Mars were affected when solar panels were obscured by dust thereby reducing the effectiveness of the solar panels. The Electrostatics and Surface Physics Lab in Swamp Works at the Kennedy Space Center has been developing an Electrodynamic Dust Shield (EDS) to remove dust from multiple surfaces, including glass shields and thermal radiators. This technology has been tested in lab environments and has evolved over several years. Tests of the technology include reduced gravity flights (6g) in which Apollo Lunar dust samples were successfully removed from glass shields while under vacuum (1 millipascal). Further development of the technology is underway to reduce the size of the EDS as well as to perform material and component testing outside of the International Space Station (ISS) on the Materials on International Space Station Experiment X (MISSE-X). This experiment is designed to verify that the EDS can withstand the harsh environment of space and will look to closely replicate the solar environment experienced on the moon. A second flight opportunity exists to provide an EDS to several companies as part of NASA's Lunar CATALYST program. The current mission concept would fly the EDS on the footpad of one of the Lunar CATALYST vehicles. To determine the effectiveness of the EDS system, image analysis will be performed on the footpad before, during and after EDS activation. If successful in these test flights, the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of the EDS will be raised to a sufficient level to be used in the protection of mission equipment for future NASA and commercial missions to the moon, asteroids, and Mars.

Dust mitigation↗

EBF3 Design and Sustainability Considerations

Electron beam freeform fabrication (EBF3) is a cross-cutting technology for producing structural metal parts using an electron beam and wire feed in a layer-additive fashion. This process was developed by researchers at NASA Langley to specifically address needs for aerospace applications. Additive manufacturing technologies like EBF3 enable efficient design of materials and structures by tailoring microstructures and chemistries at the local level to improve performance at the global level. Additive manufacturing also facilitates design freedom by integrating assemblies into complex single-piece components, eliminating flanges, fasteners and joints, resulting in reduced size and mass. These same efficiencies that permit new design paradigms also lend themselves to supportability and sustainability. Long duration space missions will require a high degree of self-sustainability. EBF3 is a candidate technology being developed to allow astronauts to conduct repairs and fabricate new components and tools on demand, with efficient use of feedstock materials and energy.

Taminger, Karen M. B.↗

Space Assembly of Large Structural System Architectures (SALSSA)

Developing a robust capability for Space Assembly of Large Spacecraft Structural System Architectures (SALSSA) has the potential to drastically increase the capabilities and performance of future space missions and spacecraft while significantly reducing their cost. Currently, NASA architecture studies and space science decadal surveys identify new missions that would benefit from SALSSA capabilities, and the technologies that support SALSSA are interspersed throughout the fourteen NASA Technology Roadmaps. However, a major impediment to the strategic development of cross-cutting SALSSA technologies is the lack of an integrated and comprehensive compilation of the necessary information. This paper summarizes the results of a small study that used an integrated approach to formulate a SALSSA roadmap and associated plan for developing key SALSSA technologies.

Dorsey, John T.↗

Autonomous RPOD Technology Challenges for the Coming Decade

Rendezvous Proximity Operations and Docking (RPOD) technologies are important to a wide range of future space endeavors. This paper will review some of the recent and ongoing activities related to autonomous RPOD capabilities and summarize the current state of the art. Gaps are identified where future investments are necessary to successfully execute some of the missions likely to be conducted within the next ten years. A proposed RPOD technology roadmap that meets the broad needs of NASA's future missions will be outlined, and ongoing activities at OSFC in support of a future satellite servicing mission are presented. The case presented shows that an evolutionary, stair-step technology development program. including a robust campaign of coordinated ground tests and space-based system-level technology demonstration missions, will ultimately yield a multi-use main-stream autonomous RPOD capability suite with cross-cutting benefits across a wide range of future applications.

Naasz, Bo J.↗

Soft-Robotic Rover with Electrodynamic Power Scavenging: NIAC Final Report - Phase 1

The purpose of studying the capabilities of Electrodynamic Tethers (EDT) and Soft Robotics is to ascertain the feasibility of using cross-cutting EDT and soft robotics technologies to achieve future NASA mission objectives with mass and power budgets orders of magnitude lower than conventional spacecraft. In this context, the Phase I study focuses on three technological elements: the design of a soft-robotic rover that can operate in extraterrestrial oceans, demonstrating feasibility of electrodynamic tethers for power scavenging in the Europa environment, and utilizing electrolysis to power biomimetic propulsion.The Phase I results show that a soft robotic, underwater rover has many advantages over a traditional view of autonomous underwater vehicles. Many of these advantages stem from its ability to collapse or expand the body, which carries two key benefits: (i) cost savings in transport and (ii) buoyancy control. Furthermore, this rover's material offers properties that enable it to survive most oceanic conditions, withstand a likely radiation environment, and retard ice formation. The use of these soft robots under water is very attractive because buoyancy enables very large robots without the need for skeletal structures that limit their shape-changing ability. The prime limitation of soft robots for underwater exploration is their nascent state of development, an issue that this study has begun to address and that we hope to continue in Phase II. The theoretical calculations and experimental investigation on electrodynamic tethers discussed in this report show that their use in saltwater environments is feasible. However, magneto hydrodynamic effects require attention, which will be a priority in Phase II. A possible approach involves magnetic shielding of a portion of the EDT array to generate significant current from imposed alternating magnetic fields. The Phase I experiments show that this approach may enable enough power to be generated for a soft robotic rover of the scale contemplated here. This power is in the range of 1mW to 1W and determines the time required to collect and transmit science data.

Soft Robotics↗

Energy to Communities (E2C)

The Energy to Communities (E2C) program provides innovative, cross-cutting technical analysis to support community-level efforts to secure abundant, reliable, and affordable energy systems. E2C provides three pathways for assistance: in-depth partnerships, peer-learning cohorts, and expert match. E2C is managed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory with support from Argonne National Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Advanced Transmission Technologies – GETs and HPCs Session 2: Advanced Power Flow Control and Transmission Topology Optimization

The INL TADA GETs Cohort Session 2, held on November 7, 2025, conducted in collaboration with ScottMadden, focused on two core Advanced Transmission Technologies (ATTs): Advanced Power Flow Control (APFC) and Transmission Topology Optimization (TTO). These technologies are pivotal in enhancing grid flexibility, reliability, and cybersecurity resilience. APFC, particularly through modular FACTS devices like Modular Static Synchronous Series Compensators (M-SSSCs), enables dynamic voltage injection to reroute power flows. The session highlighted the deployment benefits of APFC, such as rapid installation, minimal civil works, and re-deployability. Regulatory drivers like FERC Order 2023 mandate the inclusion of Grid-Enhancing Technologies (GETs) in interconnection studies. Case studies from Central Hudson, CAISO, and National Grid (UK) demonstrated APFC’s effectiveness in congestion relief and cost savings. The session also addressed cybersecurity concerns, including firmware vulnerabilities, SCADA integration risks, and supply chain dependencies. Participants engaged in interactive exercises to rank cybersecurity and supply chain risks, emphasizing the need for robust digital assurance strategies. TTO involves software-based reconfiguration of transmission networks to optimize power flow without new infrastructure. The session showcased its operational value, with examples from SPP, PJM, and MISO showing significant congestion cost reductions. Cybersecurity vulnerabilities were discussed, particularly in API security and software supply chains, referencing incidents like SolarWinds and attacks on Danish utilities. Digital assurance exercises explored worst-case scenarios, attack paths, and mitigation responsibilities between vendors and utilities. Reliability challenges such as algorithm stability, vendor dependency, and operator trust were also examined. Cross-cutting themes emphasized the importance of digital assurance tools, including Software Bills of Materials (SBOMs) and hardware-in-loop testing. Human performance, training, and operational confidence were identified as critical enablers of technology adoption. The session concluded with a preview of Session 3, which will focus on High Performance Conductors (HPCs) and risk-based cybersecurity tools. Session 2 of 3.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Division Overview

This presentation provides an overview of the research and engineering in the competency fields of advanced communications and intelligent systems with emphasis on advanced technologies, architecture definition and system development for application in current and future aeronautics and space systems.

Cross-cutting Competencies↗

Communications and Intelligent Systems Division - Division Overview

This presentation provides an overview of the research and engineering work being performed in the competency fields of advanced communications and intelligent systems with emphasis on advanced technologies, architecture definition, and systems development for application in current and future aeronautics and space communications systems.

Aerospace Communications↗