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At least 91 records · Page 5

Measurement of the 239 Pu$(n, f$) prompt fission neutron spectrum from 10 keV to 10 MeV induced by neutrons of energy 1–20 MeV

Although the prompt fission neutron spectrum (PFNS) is an essential component of neutron-driven systems that has been measured for decades, there are still multiple glaring unknowns regarding the PFNS of major actinides in the fission neutron incident energy range, specifically with regard to multichance fission and pre-equilibrium neutron emission processes. The only impactful experimental 239 Pu PFNS measurements included in recent nuclear data evaluations were measured over a limited outgoing neutron energy range at thermal and 1.5-MeV average incident neutron energy, while other potentially impactful measurements have been shown to contain errors that resulted in either large uncertainty increases or in complete exclusion from nuclear data evaluation. Here, we report a measurement of the 239 Pu PFNS over a wide range of incident neutron energy (1–20 MeV) and three orders of magnitude in outgoing neutron energy (0.01–10 MeV) resulting from the Chi-Nu experiment at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center. These results are the combination of separate PFNS measurements in the same experimental area, one using a Li-glass and the other a liquid scintillator detector array. Covariances between all PFNS data points from each detector and within each incident energy range were generated between all other data in both detector arrays and within all other incident neutron energy bins, yielding a single covariance matrix for all 1300 PFNS data points reported here. These covariances are based on a thorough assessment of systematic bias and uncertainties associated with the measurement, PFNS extraction technique, combination of data from each detector type, and other aspects of the analysis. The existence of covariances between PFNS data points in different incident neutron energy ranges yielded covariances between average PFNS energy values at each incident energy to be reported here as well, which allowed for firm statements to be made regarding a shape of a purely experimental mean PFNS energy trend for the first time. Although minor PFNS shape differences exist between the results reported here and recent nuclear data evaluations, the ENDF/B-VIII.0 and JEFF-3.3 PFNS evaluations agree reasonably well with the present results from 1-to 10-MeV incident neutron energy, which spans the well-measured 1.5-MeV incident neutron energy PFNS from Lestone and Shores as well as the onset of second-chance fission. However, while the pre-equilibrium component of the PFNS above 12-MeV incident neutron energy roughly agrees in position and magnitude with ENDF/B-VIII.0 and JEFF-3.3, clear differences relating to the relative magnitude of third-chance fission PFNS features are present in the PFNS shape and in the mean PFNS energy trends.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Low thrust orbit determination program

Logical flow and guidelines are provided for the construction of a low thrust orbit determination computer program. The program, tentatively called FRACAS (filter response analysis for continuously accelerating spacecraft), is capable of generating a reference low thrust trajectory, performing a linear covariance analysis of guidance and navigation processes, and analyzing trajectory nonlinearities in Monte Carlo fashion. The choice of trajectory, guidance and navigation models has been made after extensive literature surveys and investigation of previous software. A key part of program design relied upon experience gained in developing and using Martin Marietta Aerospace programs: TOPSEP (Targeting/Optimization for Solar Electric Propulsion), GODSEP (Guidance and Orbit Determination for SEP) and SIMSEP (Simulation of SEP).

Hong, P. E.↗

An autonomous Nimbus Doppler positioning system

A single-pass Doppler positioning system was developed at the GSFC in support of the Nimbus-6 mission. The system was designed to satisfy the following requirements: compatibility with the PDP 11/70 minicomputer; single-pass recovery of up to 250 positions with a two-sigma accuracy of 5 km; high reliability with a minimum of human interaction; and near real-time responsiveness. The system consists of a numerical integrator which includes only the J2 term (earth flattening) of the earth's gravity field, an editing routine, a first guess algorithm, a least squares position recovery program, and a routine for generating a 95% confidence circle based on a computer covariance matrix. An analysis and quantification of the following error sources that limit system accuracy are presented: orbit error, radial aliasing, computational difficulties with overhead passes, oscillator drift, and ambiguity problems. Results of system reliability tests and sample outputs are included.

Garza-Robles, R.↗

Hyper-X Post-Flight Trajectory Reconstruction

This paper discusses the formulation and development of a trajectory reconstruction tool for the NASA X{43A/Hyper{X high speed research vehicle, and its implementation for the reconstruction and analysis of ight test data. Extended Kalman ltering techniques are employed to reconstruct the trajectory of the vehicle, based upon numerical integration of inertial measurement data along with redundant measurements of the vehicle state. The equations of motion are formulated in order to include the effects of several systematic error sources, whose values may also be estimated by the ltering routines. Additionally, smoothing algorithms have been implemented in which the nal value of the state (or an augmented state that includes other systematic error parameters to be estimated) and covariance are propagated back to the initial time to generate the best-estimated trajectory, based upon all available data. The methods are applied to the problem of reconstructing the trajectory of the Hyper-X vehicle from ight data.

Karlgaard, Christopher D.↗

Hyper-X Mach 10 Trajectory Reconstruction

This paper discusses the formulation and development of a trajectory reconstruction tool for the NASA X-43A/Hyper-X high speed research vehicle, and its implementation for the reconstruction and analysis of flight test data. Extended Kalman filtering techniques are employed to reconstruct the trajectory of the vehicle, based upon numerical integration of inertial measurement data along with redundant measurements of the vehicle state. The equations of motion are formulated in order to include the effects of several systematic error sources, whose values may also be estimated by the filtering routines. Additionally, smoothing algorithms have been implemented in which the final value of the state (or an augmented state that includes other systematic error parameters to be estimated) and covariance are propagated back to the initial time to generate the best-estimated trajectory, based upon all available data. The methods are applied to the problem of reconstructing the trajectory of the Hyper-X vehicle from data obtained during the Mach 10 test flight, which occurred on November 16th 2004.

Karlgaard, Christopher D.↗

Filter Strategies for Mars Science Laboratory Orbit Determination

The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) spacecraft had ambitious navigation delivery and knowledge accuracy requirements for landing inside Gale Crater. Confidence in the orbit determination (OD) solutions was increased by investigating numerous filter strategies for solving the orbit determination problem. We will discuss the strategy for the different types of variations: for example, data types, data weights, solar pressure model covariance, and estimating versus considering model parameters. This process generated a set of plausible OD solutions that were compared to the baseline OD strategy. Even implausible or unrealistic results were helpful in isolating sensitivities in the OD solutions to certain model parameterizations or data types.

Mars Science Laboratory (MSL)↗

Mission-Maps For Outbound Cislunar Transfer Trajectories

This study quantifies the robustness and sensitivity of an outbound cislunar trajectory for a lunar lander in the form of mission-maps, or topological maps that allows either a computer program or mission designer to intuitively optimize the placement of critical outbound correction burns from the derived sensitivity data. The non-linear multi-body dynamics are applied to generate an outbound cislunar reference profile used by a linear covariance analysis (LinCov) tool to compute the expected Δv and trajectory dispersions due to the initial state uncertainty, sensor errors, maneuver execution errors, and disturbance accelerations along the outbound cislunar profile. The rapid performance analysis capabilities of LinCov are complimented with parallel processing techniques to evaluate hundreds and thousands of different translational burn locations, placements, and targeting constraints to identify the combination that minimizes the total Δv usage (nominal plus 3σ Δv) and trajectory dispersions at lunar orbit insertion. This study utilizes a generalized reference targeting algorithm to quickly assess the integrated closed-loop GN&C system performance due to different targeting configurations and constraints. The resulting mission maps provide an intuitive insight to ascertain each trajectory correction maneuver’s (TCM) sensitivity to different burn times along an outbound cislunar trajectory and quickly identify desirable engineering tradeoffs when performing analysis on the number and placement of these burns that nominally zero. Multiple mission maps are generated for a variety of different performance parameters that allow engineers to visually identify optimal solutions for trajectory correction maneuver placements, the number of correction burns, and the targeting constraints for each burn.

GN&C↗

ENDF/B-VIII.0 Augmented Covariance Data The first iteration [Slides]

Nuclear data are necessary for reliable modeling and simulation of the next generation of nuclear reactors. However, the variation in the ratio of the computed to experimental values (C/E) for certain types of nuclear systems is much less than predicted by evaluated nuclear data file (ENDF)/B covariances. Figure 1 provides an example of a set of metal-plutonium-fueled, fast-spectrum (PU-MET-FAST) integral experiments from the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) in the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) VALID database. The variation in the C/E values, shown with one standard deviation error bars, is 100% covered by both the SCALE and ENDB/VIII.0 covariance data. This is due to the comparisons to integral data that are essential during the evaluation process. However, the ENDF evaluations represent uncertainties and correlations in differential data only; they do not reflect the impact of the comparison to integral data in the covariance evaluations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Methane and Carbon Dioxide Fluxes in a Temperate Tidal Salt Marsh: Comparisons Between Plot and Ecosystem Measurements

Tidal wetlands are comprised of complex interdependent pathways where measurements of carbon exchange are often scale dependent. Common data collection methods (i.e., chambers and eddy covariance) are inherently constrained to different spatial and temporal scales which could generate biased information for applications of carbon accounting, identifying functional relationships and predicting future responses to climate change. Consequently, it is needed to systematically evaluate measurements derived from multiple approaches to identify differences and how techniques complement each other to reconcile interpretations. For our study, to accomplish this, we tested ecosystem-scale eddy covariance with plot-scale chamber measurements within a temperate salt marsh. We found good agreement (R 2 = 0.71–0.95) when comparing measurements of CH 4 emissions and CO 2 exchange but this agreement was dependent upon canopy phenology with discrepancies mainly arising during senescence and dormancy phenophases. The environmental drivers for CH 4 and CO 2 fluxes were mostly preserved across different measurement techniques, but the number of drivers increases while their individual strength decreases at the ecosystem scale. Empirical upscaling models parameterized with chamber measurements overestimated annual net ecosystem exchange (NEE; 108%) and gross primary production (GPP; 12%) while underestimating ecosystem respiration (Reco; 14%) and CH 4 emissions (69%) compared to eddy covariance measurements. Our results suggest that the environmental complexity of CH 4 and CO 2 fluxes in salt marshes may be underestimated by chamber-based measurements, and highlights how different techniques are complementary while considering limitations at each level of measurement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Aggregation bias and its drivers in large‐scale flood loss estimation: A Massachusetts case study

Abstract Large‐scale estimations of flood losses are often based on spatially aggregated inputs. This makes risk assessments vulnerable to aggregation bias, a well‐studied, sometimes substantial outcome in analyses that model fine‐grained spatial phenomena at coarse spatial units. To evaluate this potential in the context of large‐scale flood risk assessments, we use data from a high‐resolution flood hazard model and structure inventory for over 1.3 million properties in Massachusetts and examine how prominent data aggregation approaches affect the magnitude and spatial distribution of flood loss estimates. All considered aggregation approaches rely on aggregate structure inventories but differ in whether flood hazard is also aggregated. We find that aggregating only structure inventories slightly underestimates overall losses (−10% bias), and when flood hazard data is spatially aggregated to even relatively small spatial units (census block), statewide aggregation bias can reach +366%. All aggregation‐based procedures fail to capture the spatial covariation of inputs distributions in the upper tails that disproportionately generate total expected losses. Our findings are robust to several key assumptions, add important context to published risk assessments and highlight opportunities to improve flood loss estimation uncertainty quantification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spacecraft attitude determination using a second-order nonlinear filter

The stringent attitude determination accuracy and faster slew maneuver requirements demanded by present-day spacecraft control systems motivate the development of recursive nonlinear filters for attitude estimation. This paper presents the second-order filter development for the estimation of attitude quaternion using three-axis gyro and star tracker measurement data. Performance comparisons have been made by computer simulation of system models and filter mechanization. It is shown that the second-order filter consistently performs better than the extended Kalman filter when the performance index of the root sum square estimation error of the quaternion vector is compared. The second-order filter identifies the gyro drift rates faster than the extended Kalman filter. The uniqueness of this algorithm is the online generation of the time-varying process and measurement noise covariance matrices, derived as a function or the process and measurement nonlinearity, respectively.

Vathsal, S.↗

A new method for simulating atmospheric turbulence for rotorcraft applications

Simulation of atmospheric turbulence as seen by a rotating blade element involves treatment of cyclostationary processes. Conventional filtering techniques do not lend themselves well to the generation of such turbulence sample functions as are required in rotorcraft flight dynamics simulation codes. A method to generate sample functions containing second order statistics of mean and covariance is presented. Compared to ensemble averaging involving excessive computer time, the novelty is to exploit cycloergodicity and thereby, replace ensemble averaging by averaging over a single path sample function of long duration. The method is validated by comparing its covariance results with the analytical and ensemble averaged results for a widely used 1-D turbulence approximation.

J. Riaz↗

A Space-Time Fluid (Unabridged)

Purpose: This essay is a retelling of general relativity in a language in which space-time geometry is expressed as a fluid. This trivial and useful reformulation gives 1) a non-perturbative covariant description of cosmological inhomogeneities and 2) a simple formula describing how cosmic inhomogeneities are generated on super-horizon scales. Methods: Equating the Ricci curvature with the associated matter stress-energy gives a description of space-time geometry in terms of fluid properties. These locally measurable (covariant) non-perturbative quantities are in some ways superior to commonly used "gauge invariant" quantities. The dynamics of a quantity (kurvature) which describes cosmological inhomogeneities is described in detail. A detailed comparison is made of space-time fluid dynamics with that of a classical (Newtonian physics) fluid. Results: The fluid lexicon permits an unambiguous definition of the velocity of space-time. The evolution of the space-time fluid is in many ways identical with that of the classical fluid when expressed in Lagrangian coordinates. Kurvature is a measure of the specific binding energy of the fluid and is a most useful covariant measure of cosmological inhomogeneities. For plausible matter models kurvature will increase, even on super-horizon scales, due to non-linear hydrodynamic effects rather than gravity. This phenomena is also exhibited by classical fluids. Conclusion: The space-time fluid representation of geometrodynamics gives a simple and useful description of the evolution of cosmological inhomogeneities.

Stebbins, Albert [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000023807725↗

A Data-Driven Methodology for Contextual Unit Commitment Using Regression Residuals

Day after day, system operators are faced with the challenge of taking unit commitment (UC) decisions under uncertain net load conditions. The standard operating procedure for taking UC decisions begins by leveraging auxiliary data on covariates (such as the day of the week or latest weather information) to generate a point prediction for net load, which is used in solving a deterministic UC problem. Such an approach, however, is known to deliver a notoriously poor out-of-sample (OOS) performance, as it completely disregards the stochastic nature of net load. While stochastic programming models explicitly represent uncertainty, they mostly do so using a generic set of scenarios that neglect covariate observations, squandering useful auxiliary data that could be harnessed to glean insights into uncertainty. In this article, we discuss a contextual stochastic optimization approach to UC, which effectively exploits covariate observations while explicitly assessing uncertainty so as to boost the OOS performance of UC decisions. The key thrust of our approach is to leverage regression models, along with their empirical residuals, to set up and solve sample average approximation problems. Not only do we prove that our approach satisfies the requisite conditions for asymptotic optimality and consistency laid out in (Kannan et al., 2022), but we also assess its performance on several case studies conducted using real-world data collected in California ISO and New York ISO grids. In conclusion, results show that the proposed approach can significantly improve OOS performance compared to alternative methods proposed in the literature under varying dataset sizes.

Yurdakul, Ogun↗

Formatting and V&V of Consistent 238,240−24 2Pu $\overline{v}_p$ Evaluated Mean Values and Covariances

This report is in answer to the Nuclear Criticality Safety Program FY24 quarter 4 milestone that requires: “Format and V&V nu-bar means and covariances” for 238,240-242 Pu average prompt fission neutron multiplicities, $\overline{ν}$ p , that were obtained by a consistent evaluation leveraging the fission-event generator CGMF and a detailed uncertainty quantification of experimental data. It is described how nuclear data mean values and covariances were formatted using ENDFtk. Implementing the new 238,240-242 Pu $\overline{ν}$ p into the ENDF/B-VIII.1β 4 library leads to only small overall changes in criticality values of the Jezebel, Dirty Jezebel, Jupiter-001, Jupiter-002, EUCLID 3x2 and EUCLID 8x1 critical assemblies. Simulated k eff uncertainties due to $\overline{ν}$ p covariances change only little if cross-isotope covariances are considered or not for those assemblies with low percentage content of minor Pu isotopes. However, for the Dirty Jezebel critical assembly, that has a sizeable 240 Pu and non-negligible 241 Pu content, the simulated k eff uncertainties due to considering or neglecting cross-isotope $\overline{ν}$ p covariances is 443 versus 374 pcm.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Users manual for linear Time-Varying Helicopter Simulation (Program TVHIS)

A linear time-varying helicopter simulation program (TVHIS) is described. The program is designed as a realistic yet efficient helicopter simulation. It is based on a linear time-varying helicopter model which includes rotor, actuator, and sensor models, as well as a simulation of flight computer logic. The TVHIS can generate a mean trajectory simulation along a nominal trajectory, or propagate covariance of helicopter states, including rigid-body, turbulence, control command, controller states, and rigid-body state estimates.

Burns, M. R.↗

Preliminary Comparisons of the Information Content and Utility of TM Versus MSS Data

Comparisons were made between subscenes from the first TM scene acquired of the Washington, D.C. area and a MSS scene acquired approximately one year earlier. Three types of analyses were conducted to compare TM and MSS data: a water body analysis, a principal components analysis and a spectral clustering analysis. The water body analysis compared the capability of the TM to the MSS for detecting small uniform targets. Of the 59 ponds located on aerial photographs 34 (58%) were detected by the TM with six commission errors (15%) and 13 (22%) were detected by the MSS with three commission errors (19%). The smallest water body detected by the TM was 16 meters; the smallest detected by the MSS was 40 meters. For the principal components analysis, means and covariance matrices were calculated for each subscene, and principal components images generated and characterized. In the spectral clustering comparison each scene was independently clustered and the clusters were assigned to informational classes. The preliminary comparison indicated that TM data provides enhancements over MSS in terms of (1) small target detection and (2) data dimensionality (even with 4-band data). The extra dimension, partially resultant from TM band 1, appears useful for built-up/non-built-up area separation.

Markham, B. L.↗

A new method for simulating atmospheric turbulence for rotorcraft applications

Simulation of atmospheric turbulence as seen by a rotating blade element involves treatment of cyclostationary processes. Conventional filtering techniques do not lend themselves well to the generation of such turbulence sample functions as are required in rotorcraft flight dynamics simulation codes. A method to generate sample functions containing second-order statistics of mean and covariance is presented. Compared to ensemble averaging involving excessive computer time, the novelty is to exploit cycloergodicity and thereby, replace ensemble averaging by averaging over a single-path sample function of long duration. The method is validated by comparing its covariance results with the analytical and ensemble-averaged results for a widely used one-dimensional turbulence approximation.

Prasad, J. V. R.↗