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Criticality Experiments to Reduce Compensating Errors in Plutonium Nuclear Data

Compensating errors between nuclear data observables in a library can adversely impact application simulations. The primary goal of the EUCLID project (Experiments Underpinned by Computational Learning for Improvements in Nuclear Data) is to reduce compensating errors in nuclear data. A new criticality experiment, described in this work, was designed with the specific target nuclear data of 239 Pu fission, inelastic scattering, elastic scattering, capture, nu-bar, and prompt fission neutron spectrum (PFNS). This work will focus on the design and execution of the EUCLID experiment, performed on the Planet vertical lift critical assembly machine at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC). The criticality experiment includes two different configurations with very different geometries: one is cube-like to minimize neutron leakage while the other is slab-like to maximize leakage. Having these two widely varying configurations allows the scattering sensitivities of 239 Pu to the neutron multiplication factor to be greatly changed while minimally impacting the other cross section sensitivities. Both configurations utilize the Pu ZPPR (Zero Power Physics Reactor) plates as fuel. The experiments were designed using a D-Optimality criteria, which is an optimization method minimizing the log-determinant of the adjusted nuclear data covariance for the target reactions. These experiments include not only inference of k eff , as done in all critical benchmark experiments, but several other responses as well, such as neutron multiplication measurements and reaction rate ratios. After analysis of the measured data is complete, adjustment of nuclear data will be performed to assess whether the new experimental data successfully reduced compensating errors.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

A geopotential model from satellite tracking, altimeter, and surface gravity data: GEM-T3

An improved model of Earth's gravitational field, Goddard Earth Model T-3 (GEM-T3), has been developed from a combination of satellite tracking, satellite altimeter, and surface gravimetric data. GEM-T3 provides a significant improvement in the modeling of the gravity field at half wavelengths of 400 km and longer. This model, complete to degree and order 50, yields more accurate satellite orbits and an improved geoid representation than previous Goddard Earth Models. GEM-T3 uses altimeter data from GEOS 3 (1975-1976), Seasat (1978) and Geosat (1986-1987). Tracking information used in the solution includes more than 1300 arcs of data encompassing 31 different satellites. The recovery of the long-wavelength components of the solution relies mostly on highly precise satellite laser ranging (SLR) data, but also includes Tracking Network (TRANET) Doppler, optical, and satellite-to-satellite tracking acquired between the ATS 6 and GEOS 3 satellites. The main advances over GEM-T2 (beyond the inclusion of altimeter and surface gravity information which is essential for the resolution of the shorter wavelength geoid) are some improved tracking data analysis approaches and additional SLR data. Although the use of altimeter data has greatly enhanced the modeling of the ocean geoid between 65 deg N and 60 deg S latitudes in GEM-T3, the lack of accurate detailed surface gravimetry leaves poor geoid resolution over many continental regions of great tectonic interest (e.g., Himalayas, Andes). Estimates of polar motion, tracking station coordinates, and long-wavelength ocean tidal terms were also made (accounting for 6330 parameters). GEM-T3 has undergone error calibration using a technique based on subset solutions to produce reliable error estimates. The calibration is based on the condition that the expected mean square deviation of a subset gravity solution from the full set values is predicted by the solutions' error covariances. Data weights are iteratively adjusted until this condition for the error calibration is satisfied. In addition, gravity field tests were performed on strong satellite data sets withheld from the solution (thereby ensuring their independence). In these tests, the performance of the subset models on the withheld observations is compared to error projections based on their calibrated error covariances. These results demonstrate that orbit accuracy projections are reliable for new satellites which were not included in GEM-T3.

Lerch, F. J.↗

Demonstration of TOFFEE: A Response Uncertainty Quantification Tool

A key characteristic in neutron transport is nuclear data. Cross-section uncertainty is not used in MCNP6.3 to propagate response uncertainty without external analysis. Here, the TOol For Fast Error Estimation (TOFFEE) is a Python-based code developed to automate the propagation of cross-section uncertainty for MCNP evaluations. TOFFEE implements the sandwich rule to calculate the uncertainty from cross sections with sensitivity coefficients from MCNP6.3 and ENDF/B covariance data. In this paper, TOFFEE has been tested with benchmark experiments, and it has been compared to the uncertainty quantification capabilities of Sampler and TSUNAMI, within SCALE, to verify the application’s capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Regional-scale soil carbon predictions can be enhanced by transferring global-scale soil–environment relationships

Accurate modelling and mapping soil organic carbon are crucial for supporting soil health restoration and climate change mitigation at both regional and global scales. However, regional soil predictions often suffer from data scarcity and high prediction uncertainty. Utilizing a pre-trained global-to-regional soil carbon predictive model can be a potential solution to address this challenge. Despite its promise, how to construct and apply the global-scale model to enhance regional-scale soil carbon mapping remains largely unexplored. Here, we propose the Global Soil Carbon Pre-trained Model (GSoilCPM), a deep-learning-based domain adaptative model, to enhance regional-scale soil carbon predictions. Based on large amount of environmental covariate data and 106,167 soil samples across the globe, we verify our hypothesis of the effectiveness of this 'global-to-regional' modelling strategy. The pre-trained model can be then transferred and fine-tuned to bridge the regional- and global-scale soil–environment relationships. We applied and validated this modelling strategy in four regional-scale study areas, three in the Northern Hemisphere and one in the Southern Hemisphere, each with distinct environmental background. Compared to traditional modelling approaches as a baseline, four case studies all demonstrated significant improvement in prediction accuracy across diverse environments and varying data availabilities. The average percentage improvement across all regions is 10.93% (absolute values decreased by 1.20 g kg−1 averagely) in MAE and 29.04% (absolute values increased by 0.10 averagely) in CCC. The applicability and future horizons of using GSoilCPM were further discussed. We further reveal that regions with fewer soil samples or lower baseline accuracy benefit more from the pre-trained global model. Our findings highlight the advantages of leveraging the generalized knowledge from global models to enhance specifically localized soil modelling, positioning a potential paradigm shift in digital soil mapping, and far-reaching implications for soil monitoring and land management.

Deep learning↗

Uranium integral fission product yields for a spectrally-shaped 14.1 MeV neutron source at the National Ignition Facility

This paper describes the experimental results for an energy tuning assembly created to modify the National Ignition Facility deuterium–tritium fusion neutron source into a notional thermonuclear and prompt fission neutron spectrum, which has applications in integral measurements, nuclear data benchmarks, and radiation effects on microelectronics. The Monte Carlo neutron transport utilized MCNP5 to estimate the ETA-modified fluence using the ENDF-B/VIII.0 and IRDFF-II continuous energy nuclear data libraries, and SCALE Sampler was used to estimate the systematic nuclear data covariance using ENDF-B/VII.1 and IRDFF-II in a 252-group structure. The experiment fielded eight activation foils and a highly enriched uranium sample. This provided fifteen reaction channels that were used in a forward-fit comparison to the modeled results and to unfold the neutron spectrum using STAYSL. Gamma-ray spectrometry was performed on the activation and highly enriched uranium foils, and the reduced Χ 2 between the modeled and experimental values was 1.21. The results from the STAYSL unfold, reduced Χ 2 = 1.62, indicated that the modeled neutron spectrum was achieved and the systematic nuclear data uncertainty associated with the neutron transport and activation product cross sections was representative of the experiment. Integral cumulative fission product yield data were collected for 37 mass chains with a combination of gamma-ray spectrometry and radiochemical analysis. Fission product analysis was generally in agreement with two models using a semi-empirical fit and the General Observables of Fission code, with the exception of mass chains 88, 109, 111, 112, 113, 129, 139, 142, 144, 151, and 156.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

A novel approach to partitioning evapotranspiration into evaporation and transpiration in flooded ecosystems

Reliable partitioning of micrometeorologically measured evapotranspiration (ET) into evaporation (E) and transpiration (T) would greatly enhance our understanding of the water cycle and its response to climate change related shifts in local-to-regional climate conditions and rising global levels of vapor pressure deficit (VPD). While some methods on ET partitioning have been developed, their underlying assumptions make them difficult to apply more generally, especially in sites with large contributions of E. Here, we report a novel ET partitioning method using artificial neural networks (ANNs) in combination with a range of environmental input variables to predict daytime E from nighttime ET measurements. The study uses eddy covariance data from four restored wetlands in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California, USA, as well as leaf-level T data for validation. The four wetlands vary in their vegetation make-up and structure, representing a range of ET conditions. The ANNs were built with increasing complexity by adding the input variable that resulted in the next highest average value of model testing R 2 across all sites. The order of variable inclusion (and importance) was: VPD > gap-filled sensible heat flux (H_gf) > air temperature (T air ) > friction velocity (u * ) > other variables. The model using VPD, H_gf, T air , and u * showed the best performance during validation with independent data and had a mean testing R 2 value of 0.853 (averaged across all sites, range from 0.728 to 0.910). In comparison to other methods, our ANN method generated T/ET partitioning results which were more consistent with CO 2 exchange data especially for more heterogeneous sites with large E contributions. Further, our method improves the understanding of T/ET partitioning. While it may be particularly suited to flooded ecosystems, it can also improve T/ET partitioning in other systems, increasing our knowledge of the global water cycle and ecosystem functioning.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

An uncertainty quantification method relevant to material test reactors

Within material test reactor calculations, energy dependent flux and reaction rate uncertainties are typically not quantified when performing as-run analyses to determine the neutron field experienced by the experiment. When high fidelity Monte-Carlo codes are used in such analyses, straight forward methods to calculate output uncertainties are not available, instead expert opinion is used to postulate computational uncertainties. New methods to propagate uncertainties through these high fidelity simulations are available when sufficient computational power is available. A tool is developed here for sampling any part of an MCNP input from random distributions to determine output uncertainties based on those inputs. Another tool is developed to sample nuclear data cross-section in ACE format using multi-group nuclear data covariances. The Total Monte-Carlo Method and Gesellschaft für Anlagen-und Reaktorsicherheit method (GRS) are implemented and compared to one another as well as MCNP sensitivity and uncertainty calculations. The methods were applied to the Godiva critical sphere k-eigenvalue, the UAM pin-cell benchmark energy dependent flux and reaction rates, and the Advanced Test Reactor energy dependent flux within an experimental location. Furthermore, the two methods agree well, with GRS allowing for an order of magnitude speedup for reaction rate uncertainty calculations and several orders of magnitude for eigenvalue uncertainty calculations.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Comparison Study of Upper Subcritical Limits Derived Using Sensitivity/Uncertainty Tools Case Studies of Benchmarks and Applications

Neutron transport methods used to establish subcriticality require validation by comparison to critical experiments considered to be benchmarks. Whisper is a sensitivity/uncertainty analysis tool developed to assist with the task of validation in nuclear criticality safety. Details on the Whisper methodology can be found in References 1-3 on the MCNP ® reference collection website at https://mcnp.lanl.gov. Whisper-1.0 was originally developed in 2014 and used to assist with nuclear criticality safety validation at Los Alamos National Laboratory. Whisper was upgraded in 2016 to Whisper-1.1 and prepared for release with MCNP6.2. Whisper contains a library of over 1100 critical experiment benchmarks and quantifies neutronic similarity of an application to benchmarks in the library. Using highest similarity benchmarks, Whisper computes a calculational margin (CM) encompassing of the worst-case bias and bias uncertainty at a 99% confidence level for each application. In addition, portions of the margin of subcriticality (MOS) for nuclear data uncertainty and potential code errors are computed. The baseline upper subcritical limit (USL) computed by Whisper is comprised of the CM, MOS nuclear data , and MOS code errors . The Whisper baseline USL is absent a portion of the MOS due to the area of application, which is applied based upon judgment by the criticality safety analyst. An objective of this paper is to present the baseline USL, CM and portions of the MOS as computed by Whisper for comparison with similar sensitivity/uncertainty tools, such as those used by IRSN and ORNL. The initial comparison involves four critical experiment benchmarks: HEU-MET-FAST-013-001, HEU-SOLTHERM-001-008, PU-MET-FAST-022-001, AND PU-SOL-THERM-001-001, which have been: 1. modeled independently by LANL, IRSN, and ORNL based upon information provided in the ICSBEP Handbook, 2. are common in S/U libraries for LANL, IRSN, and ORNL, 3. span a range of energy spectrum and fissile material, and 4. taken as applications for the purposes of this study and therefore excluded from use as a benchmark for calculating the upper subcritical limit. Results presented in this paper have been computed using covariance data for all isotopes in ENDF/BVII.0 using a 44-group energy structure. Benchmarks in the Whisper library were run in MCNP6.2 using 100,000 neutrons per cycle, skipping 100 cycles for 500 active cycles. Reference 10 also compares the results for baseline USL with an order of magnitude greater neutrons, using the same total number of cycles with 1,000,000 neutrons per cycle. Subsequent to the results presented in Reference 10 changes were made to the benchmark library, as discussed in Reference 11. Newer results using the revised benchmark library are presented herein.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Solar position confounds the relationship between ecosystem function and vegetation indices derived from solar and photosynthetically active radiation fluxes

Vegetation indices derived from solar and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) sensors (i.e. radiation derived) have been under-utilized in inferring ecosystem function, despite measurement capability at hundreds of sites. This under-utilization may be attributed to reported mismatches among the seasonality of radiation- and satellite-derived vegetation indices and canopy photosynthesis; herein referred to as measurement biases. In this work, biases in radiation derived reflectance and vegetation indices were assessed using a decadal record of satellite and ground based spectroradiometer data, ecosystem phenology and CO 2 fluxes, and radiation derived vegetation indices (i.e. the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index [NDVI], the two band Enhanced Vegetation Index [EVI2]) from a high latitude tundra site (i.e. Imnaviat). At Imnaviat, we found poor correspondence between the three types of reflectance and vegetation indices, especially during the latter part of the growing season. Radiation derived vegetation indices resulted in incorrect estimates of phenological timing of up to a month and poor relationships with canopy photosynthesis (i.e. Gross Ecosystem Exchange (GEE)). These mismatches were attributed to solar position (i.e. solar zenith and azimuth angle) and a method, based on the diel visible and near-infrared albedo variation, was developed to improve the performance of the vegetation indices. The ability of radiation derived vegetation indices to infer GEE and phenological dates drastically improved once radiation derived vegetation indices were corrected for solar position associated biases at Imnaviat. Moreover, radiation derived vegetation indices became better aligned with MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite estimates after solar position associated biases were corrected at Imnaviat and at 25 Fluxnet sites (~90 site years) across North America. Corrections developed here provide a way forward in understanding daily ecosystem function or filling large gaps in eddy covariance data at a significant number of Fluxnet sites.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spectral distortions to momentum and scalar exchanges by non-turbulent motion and patchy landscape variability

Modifications to the spectra of turbulent velocity and scalars and co-spectra of vertical fluxes of momentum and scalars due to patchy landscape heterogeneity and non-stationarity are explored for a Mediterranean ecosystem. About 9 months of high frequency measurements of the three velocity components, water vapor concentration, carbon dioxide concentration, and air temperature were analyzed for different seasons (spring/summer) and prevalent wind directions (southeast/northwest). The two wind directions sampled a contrast of clumped and patchy landscape comprised of olive trees (southeast) and wall bounded flow disturbed by the presence of few upwind trees (northwest). The measured spectra and co-spectra were also compared to theoretical scaling forms from stationary, planar homogeneous flow, in the absence of subsidence as derived from the Kansas experiment. To assess the role of low frequency non-turbulent motion on the spectral and co-spectral content, a 5-min Fourier cutoff was introduced and the analysis was limited to near-neutral conditions where the boundary layer depth is shallow compared to its unstable counterpart. It was shown that the velocity statistics were not appreciably impacted by the low-frequency motion causing non-stationarity. Moreover, the turbulent scalar fluxes were also shown not to be significantly impacted by such low frequency motion. The scalar variances were impacted, especially the water vapor variance and its concomitant spectral shape. When the non-turbulent motion was filtered, the scalar spectra at low wavenumbers followed expectations from the so-called attached eddy hypothesis (i.e. exhibited a $k^{-1}_x$ scaling with $k_x$ defining the longitudinal wavenumber) applicable for near-neutral conditions. For momentum co-spectra, the canonical shapes from the Kansas experiment appear to describe well the measurements here and in both dominant directions and seasons with some adjustment to the integral time scales based on wind direction. For the scalar co-spectra, deviations from the Kansas experiment were prevalent. The most noticeable and surprising deviations were their slow decay with increased sampling frequency at inertial subrange scales. This slow decay was shown not to contribute appreciably to the overall scalar fluxes. At those fine scales, predictions from local isotropy were expected to hold. The scalar co-spectral deviations from local isotropy were then discussed using a simplified co-spectral budget model where scalar–scalar co-spectra naturally emerged and the interplay between landscape heterogeneity and a scale-dependent pressure-scalar de-correlation time was postulated. It is also envisaged that the findings here offer a preliminary template for analyzing eddy-covariance data in situations that deviate from ideal conditions, especially regarding low-frequency modulations of scalar spectra and vertical scalar flux co-spectra.

Canopy turbulence↗

Adjusting solar-induced fluorescence to nadir-viewing provides a better proxy for GPP

Solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) provides key information for inferring terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP). However, there is little research on analyzing the performance of nadir-adjusted SIF (SIF nadir ) on GPP, compared to total SIF emitted by all leaves (SIF total ) for reducing the viewing angle effects and estimating GPP. Besides, there have been controversial opinions on whether SIF total is better correlated to GPP than raw SIF observations (SIF obs ). Here we systematically analyzed the relationship between raw/nadir/total SIF (i.e., SIF obs , SIF nadir and SIF total ) and GPP and investigated the underlying mechanism, using multi-angular field measurements and eddy covariance data in wheat and corn crops at sub-daily scale. We further compared the performance of SIF obs , SIF nadir and SIF total in estimating GPP using the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) SIF and concurrent AmeriFlux measurements at daily scale. Furthermore, the results indicate that diurnal SIF nadir has stronger correlations to GPP than SIF obs for field measurements, with the increase of mean coefficient of determination (R 2 ) by 0.05–0.07 for far-red band and 0.11–0.20 for red band. SIF nadir shows comparable performance with SIF total for both far-red and red bands. Although the viewing angle effects dominate the difference in estimating GPP between SIF nadir and SIF obs , the correlation between light use efficiency (LUE) and fesc further determines the different performance of SIF nadir and SIF total in estimating GPP. TROPOMI-based analysis further confirms that SIF nadir overall has higher correlations to AmeriFlux GPP than SIF obs for different plant functional types and shows similar performance with SIF total . Compared to SIF total , the estimation of SIF nadir independent of viewing angle effects does not require any canopy structure parameters, and thus offers promising potential for reliably estimating regional and global GPP.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Groundwater regulates interannual variations in evapotranspiration in a riparian semiarid ecosystem

Dryland ecosystems are an important component of Earth’s carbon, water, and energy budgets. Changes in hydroclimatic conditions can significantly alter land surface fluxes in these ecosystems. In regions with groundwater-river water exchange, land surface fluxes are strongly modulated by groundwater table fluctuations in response to river stage variations; however, interactions between fluxes and groundwater remain poorly understood in drylands. Here, we use eddy covariance data collected in paired upland and riparian semiarid ecosystems during two years with contrasting river flow conditions to examine interactions among river stage conditions, water table dynamics, meteorological drivers, and ecosystem fluxes. Elevated groundwater availability resulting from groundwater-surface water exchange at the riparian site enhanced the latent heat flux (LE, the energy form of evapotranspiration), which was sustained longer in the growing season during both years. At the upland site, mean LE during the dry season differed by less than 2% between the two years. In contrast, at the riparian site contrasting river flow conditions resulted in a 41% difference in peak monthly LE between the two years. The two-year mean LE in the summer at the riparian site was twice that at the upland site. Carbon uptake (NEP) and LE were well correlated at the upland site during both years, but at the riparian site enhanced summertime LE during the high river flow year did not correspond t enhanced NEP. Our results demonstrate that enhanced groundwater availability modulated by river stage variability is a critical driver of land surface fluxes in semiarid riparian ecosystems.

Missik, Justine E.↗

Turbulence Structures in the Very Stable Boundary Layer Under the Influence of Wind Profile Distortion

Abstract In very stable boundary layers (VSBL), a “cocktail” of submeso motions routinely result in elevated mean wind speed maxima above the ground, acting as a new source of turbulence generation. This new source of turbulent kinetic energy enhances turbulent mixing and causes mean wind profile distortion (WPD). As a results, this transient distortion in the wind profile adjusts the classical log‐law. Addressing how WPD‐induced turbulence regulates flow structures, turbulent fluxes, and transitions in stability regimes across layers remains a challenge. Eddy covariance data measured at four levels on a 62‐m tower are employed to address these questions. It is shown that the WPD initiates large turbulent eddies that penetrate downward, leading to enhanced vertical mixing and comparable turbulent transport efficiencies across layers. As a consequence, turbulence intensity and fluxes are increased. As the WPD is intensified, turbulent fluxes and turbulent flux transport caused by large eddies are also enhanced, leading to a transition from very stable to weakly stable regimes. Due to the influence of WPD‐induced large eddies, the large‐eddy turbulent Prandtl number does not deviate appreciably from unity and the partitioning between turbulent kinetic and potential energies is linearly related to the gradient Richardson number.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Ecosystem Water‐Saving Timescale Varies Spatially With Typical Drydown Length

Abstract Stomatal optimization theory is a commonly used framework for modeling how plants regulate transpiration in response to the environment. Most stomatal optimization models assume that plants instantaneously optimize a reward function such as carbon gain. However, plants are expected to optimize over longer timescales given the rapid environmental variability they encounter. There are currently no observational constraints on these timescales. Here, a new stomatal model is developed and is used to analyze the timescales over which stomatal closure is optimized. The proposed model assumes plants maximize carbon gain subject to the constraint that they cannot draw down soil moisture below a critical value. The reward is integrated over time, after being weighted by a discount factor that represents the timescale ( τ ) that a plant considers when optimizing stomatal conductance to save water. The model is simple enough to be analytically solvable, which allows the value of τ to be inferred from observations of stomatal behavior under known environmental conditions. The model is fitted to eddy covariance data in a range of ecosystems, finding the value of τ that best predicts the dynamics of evapotranspiration at each site. Across 82 sites, the climate metrics with the strongest correlation to τ are measures of the average number of dry days between rainfall events. Values of τ are similar in magnitude to the longest such dry period encountered in an average year. The results here shed light on which climate characteristics shape spatial variations in ecosystem‐level water use strategy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Empirical Dynamic Modeling Reveals Complexity of Methane Fluxes in a Temperate Salt Marsh

Abstract Methane dynamics within salt marshes are complex because vegetation types, temperature, oscillating water levels, and changes in salinity and redox conditions influence CH 4 production, consumption, oxidation, and emissions. These non‐linear and complex interactions among variables affect the traditionally expected functional relationships and present challenges for interpreting and developing process‐based models. We employed empirical dynamic modeling (EDM) and convergent cross mapping (CCM) as a novel approach for characterizing seasonal/multiday and diurnal CH 4 dynamics by inferring causal variables, lags, and interconnections among multiple biophysical variables within a temperate salt marsh using 5 years of eddy covariance data. EDM/CCM is a nonparametric approach capable of quantifying the coupling between variables while determining time scales where variable interactions are the most relevant. We found that gross primary productivity, tidal creek dissolved oxygen, and temperature were important for seasonal/multiday dynamics (rho = 0.73–0.80), while water level was most important for diurnal dynamics during both the growing and dormancy phenoperiods (rho = 0.72 and 0.56, respectively). Lags for the top‐ranked variables (i.e., gross primary productivity, dissolved oxygen, temperature, water level) occurred between 1 and 5 weeks at the seasonal scale and 1–24 hr at the diurnal scale. The EDM had high prediction capabilities for intra‐/inter‐seasonal patterns and annual CH 4 sums but had limitations in representing large, infrequent fluxes. Results highlight the importance of non‐linearity, drivers, lag times, and interconnections among multiple biophysical variables that regulate CH 4 fluxes in tidal wetlands. This research introduces a novel approach to examining CH 4 fluxes, which will aid in evaluating current paradigms in wetlands and other ecosystems.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Increased photosynthesis during spring drought in energy-limited ecosystems

Abstract Drought is often thought to reduce ecosystem photosynthesis. However, theory suggests there is potential for increased photosynthesis during meteorological drought, especially in energy-limited ecosystems. Here, we examine the response of photosynthesis (gross primary productivity, GPP) to meteorological drought across the water-energy limitation spectrum. We find a consistent increase in eddy covariance GPP during spring drought in energy-limited ecosystems (83% of the energy-limited sites). Half of spring GPP sensitivity to precipitation was predicted solely from the wetness index (R 2 = 0.47, p < 0.001), with weaker relationships in summer and fall. Our results suggest GPP increases during spring drought for 55% of vegetated Northern Hemisphere lands ( >30° N). We then compare these results to terrestrial biosphere model outputs and remote sensing products. In contrast to trends detected in eddy covariance data, model mean GPP always declined under spring precipitation deficits after controlling for air temperature and light availability. While remote sensing products captured the observed negative spring GPP sensitivity in energy-limited ecosystems, terrestrial biosphere models proved insufficiently sensitive to spring precipitation deficits.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Increased salinity decreases annual gross primary productivity at a Northern California brackish tidal marsh

Tidal marshes sequester 11.4–87.0 Tg C yr –1 globally, but climate change impacts can threaten the carbon capture potential of these ecosystems. Tidal marshes occur across a wide range of salinity, with brackish marshes (0.5–18 ppt (parts per thousand)) dominating global tidal marsh extents. A diverse mix of freshwater- and saltwater-tolerant plant and microbial communities has led researchers to predict that carbon cycling in brackish wetlands may be less sensitive to changes in salinity than fresh- or saltwater wetlands. Rush Ranch, a well-monitored brackish tidal wetland of the San Francisco Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve, experiences highly variable annual salinity regimes. Within a five-year period (2014–2018), Rush Ranch experienced particularly extreme drought-induced salinization during the 2014 and 2015 growing seasons. During drought years, tidal channel salinity rose from a 15 year baseline of 4.7 ppt to growing season peaks of 10.3 ppt and 12.5 ppt. Continuous eddy covariance data from 2014 to 2018 demonstrate that during drought summers, gross primary productivity (GPP) decreased by 24%, whereas ecosystem respiration remained similar among all five years. Stepwise linear regression revealed that salinity, not air temperature or tidal height, was the dominant driver of annual GPP. A random forest model trained to predict GPP based on environmental data from low salinity years (i.e. naive to salinization) significantly over predicted GPP in drought years. When growing season salinities were doubled, annual estimates of net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 decreased by up to 30%. These results provide ecosystem-scale evidence that increased salinity influences CO 2 fluxes dominantly through reductions in GPP. This relationship provides a starting point for incorporating the effect of changes in salinity in wetland carbon models, which could improve wetland carbon forecasting and management for climate resilience.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Heat exposure and maternal stress: evidence from the GRAPHS pregnancy cohort in Ghana

Heat exposure has been linked to psychosocial stress, an established antecedent of perinatal depression; however, evidence on heat-related stress during pregnancy in sub-Saharan Africa remains limited. We analyzed psychosocial stress scores and covariate data from the Ghana Randomized Air Pollution and Health Study, linking daily maximum and minimum shaded wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) metrics to participants’ stress scores derived from the Crisis in Family Systems-Revised Life Events Questionnaire. We evaluated associations using ordinal logistic regression of pregnancy-average and trimester-average exposures and distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) to assess time-varying associations across gestation. Higher average maximum WBGT exposure across pregnancy was associated with increased odds of higher psychosocial stress; each 1 °C increase in maximum WBGT was associated with 64% higher odds of belonging to a higher stress category (OR = 1.64; 95% CI = 1.17–2.31; p = 0.0040). In trimester-average models, higher first-trimester maximum WBGT was also associated with higher stress (OR = 1.44; 95% CI = 1.15–1.81; p = 0.0014). DLNMs suggested that relatively cooler daily maximum WBGT values (25th percentile) were associated with decreased odds of stress in early pregnancy, whereas extreme daily maximum WBGT values (99th percentile) showed a pattern consistent with increased odds of stress in mid-to-late gestation. These findings highlight gestational windows in which heat exposure may influence stress, emphasizing the need for further research into underlying mechanisms and effective interventions to protect maternal mental health in heat-vulnerable settings.

White, Lewis [Columbia University] (ORCID:00090005↗