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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Reducing Southern Ocean Shortwave Radiation Errors in the ERA5 Reanalysis with Machine Learning and 25 Years of Surface Observations

Earth system models struggle to simulate clouds and their radiative effects over the Southern Ocean, partly due to a lack of measurements and targeted cloud microphysics knowledge. We have evaluated biases of downwelling shortwave radiation in the ERA5 climate reanalysis using 25 years (1995–2019) of summertime surface measurements, collected on the Research and Supply Vessel (RSV) Aurora Australis, the Research Vessel (R/V) Investigator, and at Macquarie Island. During October–March daylight hours, the ERA5 simulation of SW down exhibited large errors (mean bias = 54 W m -2 , mean absolute error = 82 W m -2 , root-mean-square error = 132 W m -2 , and R 2 = 0.71). To determine whether we could improve these statistics, we bypassed ERA5’s radiative transfer model for SW down with machine learning–based models using a number of ERA5’s gridscale meteorological variables as predictors. These models were trained and tested with the surface measurements of SW down using a 10-fold shuffle split. An extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and a random forest–based model setup had the best performance relative to ERA5, both with a near complete reduction of the mean bias error, a decrease in the mean absolute error and root-mean-square error by 25% ± 3%, and an increase in the R 2 value of 5% ± 1% over the 10 splits. Large improvements occurred at higher latitudes and cyclone cold sectors, where ERA5 performed most poorly. We further interpret our methods using Shapley additive explanations. Our results indicate that data-driven techniques could have an important role in simulating surface radiation fluxes and in improving reanalysis products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Thunderstorms With the Greatest Lightning Densities on Earth

The most intense thunderstorms on Earth were surveyed using the comprehensive meteorological instrumentation on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. Expansive land-based Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) were consistently identified among the Earth's most intense thunderstorms, with their organization into many convective cells spanning a large areal extent permitting exceptional overall flash rates for these storms. In this study, we identify a new class of extreme thunderstorm. Lightning-dense thunderstorms are relatively compact convective storms whose concentrated lightning activity hinders our ability to accurately measure their flash rates. The top storms have a flash rate of one flash spanning many seconds, as there is insufficient separation to distinguish one flash from another. While any particularly active convective cell could be capable of producing high lightning densities, we find that thunderstorms with the greatest lightning densities on Earth are found in maritime thunderstorms that have not been appreciated in prior work due to the inaccurate flash rate measurements. These storms that are mostly found throughout the Gulf of Mexico and east of South Africa (among other coastal and oceanic regions) have measured TRMM proxies for convective intensity that rival the top MCS thunderstorms, but their horizontal and vertical dimensions are small by comparison. Thus, the necessary microphysical elements for electrification processes are more highly concentrated, enabling the observed extreme lightning densities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2008

Analysis of Proposed 2007-2008 Revisions to the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria for United States Space Launches

Ascending space vehicles are vulnerable to both natural and triggered lightning. Launches under the jurisdiction of the United States are generally subject to a set of rules called the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC). The LLCC protect both the vehicle and the public by assuring that the launch does not take place in conditions posing a significant risk of a lightning strike to the ascending vehicle. Such a strike could destroy the vehicle and its payload, thus causing failure of the mission while releasing both toxic materials and debris. To assure safety, the LLCC are conservative and sometimes they may seriously limit the ability of the launch operator to fly as scheduled even when conditions are benign. In order to safely reduce the number of launch scrubs and delays attributable to the LLCC, the Airborne Field Mill (ABFM) program was undertaken in 2000 - 2001. The effort was directed to collecting detailed high-quality data on the electrical, microphysical, radar and meteorological properties of thunderstorm-associated clouds. The expectation was that this additional knowledge would provide a better physical basis for the LLCC and allow them to be revised to be both safer and less restrictive. That expectation was fulfilled, leading to significant revisions to the LLCC in 2003 and 2005. The 2005 revisions included the application of a new radar-derived quantity called the Volume Averaged Height Integrated Radar Reflectivity (VAHIRR) in the rules governing flight through anvil clouds. Analysis of the ABFM data has continued, and two additional revisions to the LLCC were proposed in late 2006 for adoption in 2007 or 2008. One proposal was to apply the VAHIRR concept to debris clouds, and the other was to reduce the "stand-off distances" in the rules for anvil and/or debris clouds. The stand-off distance is the clearance (out side of the cloud) required between the flight path of the vehicle and the edge of a cloud that it is not permissible to fly through. This paper will discuss these proposed changes in the LLCC and the scientific rationale for adopting or rejecting them based on ABFM data.

Dye, J. E.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Analysis of Proposed 2007-2008 Revisions to the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria for United States Space Launches

Ascending space vehicles are vulnerable to both natural and triggered lightning. Launches under the jurisdiction of the United States are generally subject to a set of rules called the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC) (Krider etal., 1999; Krider etal., 2006). The LLCC protect both the vehicle and the public by assuring that the launch does not take place in conditions posing a significant risk of a lightning strike to the ascending vehicle. Such a strike could destroy the vehicle and its payload, thus causing failure of the mission while releasing both toxic materials and debris. To assure safety, the LLCC are conservative and sometimes they may seriously limit the ability of the launch operator to fly as scheduled even when conditions are benign. In order to safely reduce the number of launch scrubs and delays attributable to the LLCC, the Airborne Field Mill (ABFM II) program was undertaken in 2000 - 2001. The effort was directed to collecting detailed high-quality data on the electrical, microphysical, radar and meteorological properties of thunderstorm-associated clouds. Details may be found in Dye et al., 2007. The expectation was that this additional knowledge would provide a better physical basis for the LLCC and allow them to be revised to be less restrictive while remaining at least as safe. That expectation was fulfilled, leading to significant revisions to the LLCC in 2003 and 2005. The 2005 revisions included the application of a new radar-derived quantity called the Volume Averaged Height Integrated Radar Reflectivity (VAHIRR) in the rules governing flight through anvil clouds. VAHIRR is the product of the volume averaged radar reflectivity times the radardetermined cloud thickness. The reflectivity average extends horizontally 5 km west, east, south and north of a point along the flight track and vertically from the 0 C isotherm to the top of the radar cloud. This region is defined as the "Specified Volume". See Dye et al., 2006 and Merceret et al., 2006 for a more thorough description of VAHIRR. The units are dBZ km (not dBZ per kilometer) and the threshold is 10 dBZ km. It is safe to fly through an anvil cloud for which VAHIRR is below this threshold everywhere along the flight track as long as (1) the entire cloud within 5 nmi. (9.26 km) of the flight track is colder than 0 C, (2) the points at which VAHIRR must be evaluated are at least 20 km from any active convective cores and recent lightning, and (3) the radar return is not being attenuated within the Specified Volume around those points.

Dye, James E.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Historical evidence for a connection between volcanic eruptions and climate change

The times of historical volcanic aerosol clouds were compared with changes in atmospheric temperatures on regional, hemispheric, and global scales. These involve either a direct comparison of individual significant eruption years with temperature records, or a comparison of eruption years with composited temperature records for several years before and after chosen sets of eruptions. Some studies have challenged the connection between individual eruptions and climate change. Mass and Portman (1989) recently suggested that the volcanic signal was present, but smaller than previously thought. In a study designed to test the idea that eruptions could cause small changes in climate, Hansen and other (1978) chose one of the best monitored eruptions at the time, the 1963 eruption of Agung volcano on the island of Bali. Using a simple radiation-balance model, in which an aerosol cloud in the tropics was simulated, this basic pattern of temperature change in the tropics and subtropics was reproduced. There may be natural limits to the atmospheric effects of any volcanic eruption. Self-limiting physical and chemical effects in eruption clouds were proposed. Model results suggest that aerosol microphysical processes of condensation and coagulation produce larger aerosols as the SO2 injection rate is increased. The key to discovering the greatest effects of volcanoes on short-term climate may be to concentrate on regional temperatures where the effects of volcanic aerosol clouds can be amplified by perturbed atmospheric circulation patterns, especially changes in mid-latitudes where meridional circulation patterns may develop. Such climatic perturbations can be detected in proxy evidence such as decreases in tree-ring widths and frost damage rings in climatically sensitive parts of the world, changes in treelines, weather anomalies such as unusually cold summers, severity of sea-ice in polar and subpolar regions, and poor grain yields and crop failures.

Rampino, Michael R.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Direct Radiative Forcing by Anthropogenic Airborne Mineral Aerosols

Although airborne mineral aerosols are traditionally considered a natural component of the earth-atmosphere climate system, an examination of dust production mechanisms and dust source regions reveals that a significant fraction of the dust loading could be due to human activities. We find that the global mean direct solar radiative forcing by anthropogenically generated mineral aerosols may be comparable to the direct solar radiative forcing by other anthropogenic aerosols. The net regional forcing by mineral aerosols can greatly exceed the regional forcing by sulfate aerosol and can even be comparable to the net forcing by clouds. An improved understanding of the radiative forcing due to mineral aerosols requires better knowledge of the regional patterns of dust production rates and dust optical depths, more comprehensive measurements of dust microphysical and optical characteristics, as well as a comprehensive assessment of the role of dust aerosols on infrared radiative forcing.

Sokolik, Irina N.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Investigation of Microphysics and Precipitation for Atlantic Coast-Threatening Snowstorms (IMPACTS) Field Campaign Report

The scientific focus here is interagency collaboration to support a National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)-sponsored 2023 field campaign: Investigation of Microphysics and Precipitation for Atlantic Coast-Threatening Snowstorms (IMPACTS). IMPACTS objectives are to provide observations critical to understanding the mechanisms of snowband formation, organization, and evolution; study how the microphysical characteristics and likely growth mechanisms of snow particles vary across snowbands; and improve snowfall remote-sensing interpretation and modeling to significantly advance predictive capabilities. The relevance to The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility's mission was to support the Interagency Council for Advancing Meteorological Services (ICAMS)’ objectives to enhance communication and coordination, and promote sharing, within and across agencies. NASA therefore requested to borrow ARM’s two-dimensional stereo probe (2DS) for possible use during the 2023 IMPACTS project. Additionally, this use of the 2DS could improve understanding of ARM 2DS measurements collected on previous field campaigns. The plan was to have the 2DS available for possible backup deployment on the NASA Lockheed Orion P-3 aircraft during the 2023 IMPACTS field project. NASA has a 2DS probe and the ARM 2DS is a hot swappable probe in case the project's 2DS fails. The 2DS is a critical probe and we had issues during a 2022 field project that prevented us from obtaining 2DS data on several flights. Hence, we wanted a hot swappable 2DS on stand-by. We have a data acquisition system, along with a backup data acquisition system for the 2DS, so we only needed the 2DS probe. David Delene was responsible for the use of the 2DS on the NASA P-3 aircraft. He has experience deploying the 2DS on several aircraft, including previously on the NASA P-3 in 2022. The team ensured that the aircraft wiring and deployment of the 2DS were completed correctly for the ARM 2DS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2013

Historical and Future Black Carbon Deposition on the Three Ice Caps: Ice Core Measurements and Model Simulations from 1850 to 2100

Ice core measurements in conjunction with climate model simulations are of tremendous value when examining anthropogenic and natural aerosol loads and their role in past and future climates. Refractory black carbon (BC) records from the Arctic, the Antarctic, and the Himalayas are analyzed using three transient climate simulations performed with the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE. Simulations differ in aerosol schemes (bulk aerosols vs. aerosol microphysics) and ocean couplings (fully coupled vs. prescribed ocean). Regional analyses for past (1850-2005) and future (2005-2100) carbonaceous aerosol simulations focus on the Antarctic, Greenland, and the Himalayas. Measurements from locations in the Antarctic show clean conditions with no detectable trend over the past 150 years. Historical atmospheric deposition of BC and sulfur in Greenland shows strong trends and is primarily influenced by emissions from early twentieth century agricultural and domestic practices. Models fail to reproduce observations of a sharp eightfold BC increase in Greenland at the beginning of the twentieth century that could be due to the only threefold increase in the North American emission inventory. BC deposition in Greenland is about 10 times greater than in Antarctica and 10 times less than in Tibet. The Himalayas show the most complicated transport patterns, due to the complex terrain and dynamical regimes of this region. Projections of future climate based on the four CMIP5 Representative Concentration Pathways indicate further dramatic advances of pollution to the Tibetan Plateau along with decreasing BC deposition fluxes in Greenland and the Antarctic.

Antarctic Regions↗
NASA NTRS2007

The Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE)

The Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE) was conducted September 27 through October 22, 2004 on the North Slope of Alaska. The primary objective was to collect a data set suitable to study interactions between microphysics, dynamics and radiative transfer in mixed-phase Arctic clouds. Observations taken during the 1997/1998 Surface Heat and Energy Budget of the Arctic (SHEBA) experiment revealed that Arctic clouds frequently consist of one (or more) liquid layers precipitating ice. M-PACE sought to investigate the physical processes of these clouds utilizing two aircraft (an in situ aircraft to characterize the microphysical properties of the clouds and a remote sensing aircraft to constraint the upwelling radiation) over the Department of Energy s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility (ACRF) on the North Slope of Alaska. The measurements successfully documented the microphysical structure of Arctic mixed-phase clouds, with multiple in situ profiles collected in both single-layer and multi-layer clouds over two ground-based remote sensing sites. Liquid was found in clouds with temperatures down to -30 C, the coldest cloud top temperature below -40 C sampled by the aircraft. Remote sensing instruments suggest that ice was present in low concentrations, mostly concentrated in precipitation shafts, although there are indications of light ice precipitation present below the optically thick single-layer clouds. The prevalence of liquid down to these low temperatures could potentially be explained by the relatively low measured ice nuclei concentrations.

Verlinde, J.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Subseasonal Tropical Convection Characteristics in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 2

Accurate simulation of subseasonal tropical moist convection remains a key challenge for Earth system models. The difficulties stem from the reliance of cumulus cloud processes on model parameterizations and the need to represent the multiscale nature of interactions among clouds, radiation, moisture, circulation, and surface energy fluxes. Equatorial convection drives circulation anomalies that can affect weather patterns and extremes globally, motivating efforts to better understand and simulate these tropical disturbances. Here, a detailed review of subseasonal tropical convective behavior as simulated in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) is presented, with comparison to its predecessor version 1 (E3SMv1) and reference data sets. Model structural changes to the deep convective trigger function and surface fluxes, along with parametric tuning of the cloud and microphysics schemes, together result in an improved depiction of organized tropical convection across scales. In particular, E3SMv2 exhibits a more realistic Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) and low‐frequency Kelvin waves—owing to a sharper time mean equatorial meridional moisture gradient and improved convection‐circulation coupling —as well as a better depiction of MJO Northern Hemisphere teleconnections. Despite these improvements, subseasonal precipitation variance continues to be strongly underestimated in E3SMv2. Use of a cloud plume model also reveals that the coupling between daily averaged tropical precipitation and lower tropospheric instability in E3SM is inconsistent with observations, a bias that could potentially impact the simulation of intraseasonal disturbances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

General circulation models simulate negative liquid water path–droplet number correlations, but anthropogenic aerosols still increase simulated liquid water path

General circulation models' (GCMs) estimates of the liquid water path adjustment to anthropogenic aerosol emissions differ in sign from other lines of evidence. This reduces confidence in estimates of the effective radiative forcing of the climate by aerosol–cloud interactions (ERFaci). The discrepancy is thought to stem in part from GCMs' inability to represent the turbulence–microphysics interactions in cloud-top entrainment, a mechanism that leads to a reduction in liquid water in response to an anthropogenic increase in aerosols. In the real atmosphere, enhanced cloud-top entrainment is thought to be the dominant adjustment mechanism for liquid water path, weakening the overall ERFaci. We show that the latest generation of GCMs includes models that produce a negative correlation between the present-day cloud droplet number and liquid water path, a key piece of observational evidence supporting liquid water path reduction by anthropogenic aerosols and one that earlier-generation GCMs could not reproduce. However, even in GCMs with this negative correlation, the increase in anthropogenic aerosols from preindustrial to present-day values still leads to an increase in the simulated liquid water path due to the parameterized precipitation suppression mechanism. This adds to the evidence that correlations in the present-day climate are not necessarily causal. We investigate sources of confounding to explain the noncausal correlation between liquid water path and droplet number. These results are a reminder that assessments of climate parameters based on multiple lines of evidence must carefully consider the complementary strengths of different lines when the lines disagree.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1998

Analysis of Ice Nucleating Aerosol Measurements during SUCCESS: April, May 1996

This section describes our research activities during year three of this effort. In the second year, preliminary archive data sets were submitted to the SUCCESS archive. After additional analyses, final versions were prepared and submitted. These are included on the SUCCESS CD-ROM data editions that were recently released by NASA Ames. Over the range of temperature and supersaturation conditions of our measurements (15 to -40 C, and from ice saturation to approximately 15% water supersaturation), IN concentrations ranged from less than 0.1 to approximately 500 per liter, being generally greater at colder temperatures and higher supersaturations. To estimate the potential of aircraft exhaust as a source of IN, we examined data from six days of the field project when the DC-8 was following closely behind other humidity conditions of our measurements. In April 1997, a microphysical workshop was convened at NCAR to select cases for in depth analyses and to address questions about the consistency of cloud ice crystal measurements (size distributions and mass concentrations) and aerosol size distributions. We attended this meeting and contributed to the discussions. A particular concern was identified in the CN measurements. On the DC-8, CN measurements were obtained by four different investigator groups, using commercially available instrumentation. The DC-8 SUCCESS CN data showed long periods where the measurements were in substantial agreement, but there were also periods with large discrepancies. Several possible factors were identified that could help explain these discrepancies, including minimum detectable particle size, response at reduced pressures, and location of sample inlet on the aircraft.

Rogers, D. C.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effect of dust on rainfall over the Red Sea coast based on WRF-Chem model simulations

Water is the single most important element of life. Rainfall plays an important role in the spatial and temporal distribution of this precious natural resource, and it has a direct impact on agricultural production, daily life activities, and human health. One of the important elements that govern rainfall formation and distribution is atmospheric aerosol, which also affects the Earth's radiation balance and climate. Therefore, understanding how dust compositions and distributions affect the regional rainfall pattern is crucial, particularly in regions with high atmospheric dust loads such as the Middle East. Although aerosol and rainfall research has garnered increasing attention as both an independent and interdisciplinary topic in the last few decades, the details of various direct and indirect pathways by which dust affects rainfall are not yet fully understood. Here, we explored the effects of dust on rainfall formation and distribution as well as the physical mechanisms that govern these phenomena, using high-resolution WRF-Chem simulations (~1.5 km × 1.5 km) configured with an advanced double-moment cloud microphysics scheme coupled with a sectional eight-bin aerosol scheme. Our model-simulated results were realistic, as evaluated from multiple perspectives including vertical profiles of aerosol concentrations, aerosol size distributions, vertical profiles of air temperature, diurnal wind cycles, and spatio-temporal rainfall patterns. Rainfall over the Red Sea coast is mainly caused by warm rain processes, which are typically confined within a height of ~6 km over the Sarawat mountains and exhibit a strong diurnal cycle that peaks in the evening at approximately 18:00 local time under the influence of sea breezes. Numerical experiments indicated that dust could both suppress or enhance rainfall. The effect of dust on rainfall was calculated as total, indirect, and direct effects, based on 10-year August-average daily-accumulated rainfall over the study domain covering the eastern Red Sea coast. For extreme rainfall events (domain-average daily-accumulated rainfall of ≥ 1.33 mm), the net effect of dust on rainfall was positive or enhancement (6.05 %), with the indirect effect (4.54 %) and direct effect (1.51 %) both causing rainfall increase. At a 5 % significance level, the total and indirect effects were statistically significant whereas the direct effect was not. For normal rainfall events (domain-average daily-accumulated rainfall < 1.33 mm), the indirect effect enhanced rainfall (4.76 %) whereas the direct effect suppressed rainfall (-5.78 %), resulting in a negative net suppressing effect (-1.02 %), all of which were statistically significant. We investigated the possible physical mechanisms of the effects and found that the rainfall suppression by dust direct effects was mainly caused by the scattering of solar radiation by dust. The surface cooling induced by dust weakens the sea breeze circulation, which decreases the associated landward moisture transport, ultimately suppressing rainfall. For extreme rainfall events, dust causes net rainfall enhancement through indirect effects as the high dust concentration facilitates raindrops to grow when the water vapor is sufficiently available. Our results have broader scientific and environmental implications. Specifically, although dust is considered a problem from an air quality perspective, our results highlight the important role of dust on sea breeze circulation and associated rainfall over the Red Sea coastal regions. Our results also have implications for cloud seeding and water resource management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2013

Detection Thresholds of Falling Snow From Satellite-Borne Active and Passive Sensors

There is an increased interest in detecting and estimating the amount of falling snow reaching the Earths surface in order to fully capture the global atmospheric water cycle. An initial step toward global spaceborne falling snow algorithms for current and future missions includes determining the thresholds of detection for various active and passive sensor channel configurations and falling snow events over land surfaces and lakes. In this paper, cloud resolving model simulations of lake effect and synoptic snow events were used to determine the minimum amount of snow (threshold) that could be detected by the following instruments: the W-band radar of CloudSat, Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR)Ku- and Ka-bands, and the GPM Microwave Imager. Eleven different nonspherical snowflake shapes were used in the analysis. Notable results include the following: 1) The W-band radar has detection thresholds more than an order of magnitude lower than the future GPM radars; 2) the cloud structure macrophysics influences the thresholds of detection for passive channels (e.g., snow events with larger ice water paths and thicker clouds are easier to detect); 3) the snowflake microphysics (mainly shape and density)plays a large role in the detection threshold for active and passive instruments; 4) with reasonable assumptions, the passive 166-GHz channel has detection threshold values comparable to those of the GPM DPR Ku- and Ka-band radars with approximately 0.05 g *m(exp -3) detected at the surface, or an approximately 0.5-1.0-mm * h(exp -1) melted snow rate. This paper provides information on the light snowfall events missed by the sensors and not captured in global estimates.

remote sensing↗
NASA NTRS2012

Impact of Aerosols on Convective Clouds and Precipitation

Aerosols are a critical factor in the atmospheric hydrological cycle and radiation budget. As a major agent for clouds to form and a significant attenuator of solar radiation, aerosols affect climate in several ways. Current research suggests that aerosol effects on clouds could further extend to precipitation, both through the formation of cloud particles and by exerting persistent radiative forcing on the climate system that disturbs dynamics. However, the various mechanisms behind these effects, in particular the ones connected to precipitation, are not yet well understood. The atmospheric and climate communities have long been working to gain a better grasp of these critical effects and hence to reduce the significant uncertainties in climate prediction resulting from such a lack of adequate knowledge. Here we review past efforts and summarize our current understanding of the effect of aerosols on convective precipitation processes from theoretical analysis of microphysics, observational evidence, and a range of numerical model simulations. In addition, the discrepancy between results simulated by models, as well as that between simulations and observations, are presented. Specifically, this paper addresses the following topics: (1) fundamental theories of aerosol effects on microphysics and precipitation processes, (2) observational evidence of the effect of aerosols on precipitation processes, (3) signatures of the aerosol impact on precipitation from largescale analyses, (4) results from cloud-resolving model simulations, and (5) results from large-scale numerical model simulations. Finally, several future research directions for gaining a better understanding of aerosol--cloud-precipitation interactions are suggested.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
NASA NTRS2011

Impact of Aerosols on Convective Clouds and Precipitation

Aerosols are a critical factor in the atmospheric hydrological cycle and radiation budget. As a major reason for clouds to form and a significant attenuator of solar radiation, aerosols affect climate in several ways. Current research suggests that aerosol effects on clouds could further extend to precipitation, both through the formation of cloud particles and by exerting persistent radiative forcing on the climate system that disturbs dynamics. However, the various mechanisms behind these effects, in particular the ones connected to precipitation, are not yet well understood. The atmospheric and climate communities have long been working to gain a better grasp of these critical effects and hence to reduce the significant uncertainties in climate prediction resulting from such a lack of adequate knowledge. The central theme of this paper is to review past efforts and summarize our current understanding of the effect of aerosols on precipitation processes from theoretical analysis of microphysics, observational evidence, and a range of numerical model simulations. In addition, the discrepancy between results simulated by models, as well as that between simulations and observations will be presented. Specifically, this paper will address the following topics: (1) fundamental theories of aerosol effects on microphysics and precipitation processes, (2) observational evidence of the effect of aerosols on precipitation processes, (3) signatures of the aerosol impact on precipitation from large-scale analyses, (4) results from cloud-resolving model simulations, and (5) results from large-scale numerical model simulations. Finally, several future research directions on aerosol - precipitation interactions are suggested.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
NASA NTRS2018

Sedimentation Efficiency of Condensation Clouds in Substellar Atmospheres

Condensation clouds in substellar atmospheres have been widely inferred from spectra and photometric variability. Up until now, their horizontally averaged vertical distribution and mean particle size have been largely characterized using models, one of which is the eddy diffusion-sedimentation model from Ackerman and Marley that relies on a sedimentation efficiency parameter, f(sub sed), to determine the vertical extent of clouds in the atmosphere. However, the physical processes controlling the vertical structure of clouds in substellar atmospheres are not well understood. In this work, we derive trends in f(sub sed) across a large range of eddy diffusivities (K (sub zz) ), gravities, material properties, and cloud formation pathways by fitting cloud distributions calculated by a more detailed cloud microphysics model. We find that f(sub sed) is dependent on K (sub zz), but not gravity, when K (sub zz) is held constant. f(sub sed) is most sensitive to the nucleation rate of cloud particles, as determined by material properties like surface energy and molecular weight. High surface energy materials form fewer, larger cloud particles, leading to large f(sub sed) (>1), and vice versa for materials with low surface energy. For cloud formation via heterogeneous nucleation, f(sub sed) is sensitive to the condensation nuclei flux and radius, connecting cloud formation in substellar atmospheres to the objects' formation environments and other atmospheric aerosols. These insights could lead to improved cloud models that help us better understand substellar atmospheres. For example, we demonstrate that f(sub sed) could increase with increasing cloud base depth in an atmosphere, shedding light on the nature of the brown dwarf L/T transition.

brown dwarfs; planets and satellites: atmospheres↗
NASA NTRS2016

The South Residual CO2 Cap on Mars: Investigations with a Mars Global Climate Model

The CO2 cycle is one of the three controlling climate cycles on Mars. One aspect of the CO2 cycle that is not yet fully understood is the existence of a residual CO2 ice cap that is offset from the south pole. Previous investigations suggest that the atmosphere could control the placement of the south residual cap (e.g., Colaprete et al., 2005). These investigations show that topographically forced stationary eddies in the south during southern hemisphere winter produce colder atmospheric temperatures and increased CO2 snowfall over the hemisphere where the residual cap resides. Since precipitated CO2 ice produces higher surface albedos than directly deposited CO2 ice, it is plausible that CO2 snowfall resulting from the zonally asymmetric atmospheric circulation produces surface ice albedos high enough to maintain a residual cap only in one hemisphere. Our current work builds on these initial investigations with a version of the NASA Ames Mars Global Climate Model (GCM) that includes a sophisticated CO2 cloud microphysical scheme. Processes of cloud nucleation, growth, sedimentation, and radiative effects are accounted for. Simulated results thus far agree well with the Colaprete et al. study—the zonally asymmetric nature of the atmospheric circulation produces enhanced snowfall over the residual cap hemisphere throughout much of the winter season. However, the predicted snowfall patterns vary significantly with season throughout the cap growth and recession phases. We will present a detailed analysis of the seasonal evolution of the predicted atmospheric circulation and snowfall patterns to more fully evaluate the hypothesis that the atmosphere controls the placement of the south residual cap.

climate cycles on Mars↗