Confidence regions for variance ratios in variance components models
Statistical mechanics for constructing confidence intervals for variance ratios in balanced and unbalanced experimental designs
Al-Barhawe, A. S.↗
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Solar activity prediction
A statistical study of formulas for predicting the sunspot number several years in advance is reported. By using a data lineup with cycle maxima coinciding, and by using multiple and nonlinear predictors, a new formula which gives better error estimates than former formulas derived from the work of McNish and Lincoln is obtained. A statistical analysis is conducted to determine which of several mathematical expressions best describes the relationship between 10.7 cm solar flux and Zurich sunspot numbers. Attention is given to the autocorrelation of the observations, and confidence intervals for the derived relationships are presented. The accuracy of predicting a value of 10.7 cm solar flux from a predicted sunspot number is dicussed.
Slutz, R. J.↗
Fatigue failure of materials under broad band random vibrations
The fatigue life of material under multifactor influence of broad band random excitations has been investigated. Parameters which affect the fatigue life are postulated to be peak stress, variance of stress and the natural frequency of the system. Experimental data were processed by the hybrid computer. Based on the experimental results and regression analysis a best predicting model has been found. All values of the experimental fatigue lives are within the 95% confidence intervals of the predicting equation.
Huang, T. C.↗
On evaluating compliance with air pollution levels not to be exceeded more than once per year
The adequacy is considered of currently practiced monitoring and data reduction techniques for assessing compliance with 24-hour Air Quality Standards (AQS) not to be exceeded more than once per year. The present situation for suspended particulates is discussed. The following conclusions are reached: (1) For typical less than daily sampling (i.e., 60 to 120 24-hour samples per year) the deviation from independence of the data set should not be substantial. (2) The interchange of exponentiation and expectation operations in the EPA data reduction model, underestimates the second highest level by about 4 to 8 percent for typical sigma values. (3) Estimates of the second highest pollution level have associated with them a large statistical variability arising from the finite size of the sample. The 0.95 confidence interval ranges from + or - 40 percent for 120 samples per year to + or - 84 percent for 30 samples per year. (4) The design value suggested by EPA for abatement and/or control planning purposes typically gives a margin of safety of 60 to 120 percent.
Neustadter, H. E.↗
Estimation of proportions of objects and determination of training sample-size in a remote sensing application
A multichannel scanning device may fail to observe objects because of obstructions blocking the view, or different categories of objects may make up a resolution element giving rise to a single observation. Ground truth will be required on any such categories of objects in order to estimate their expected proportions associated with various classes represented in the remote sensing data. Considering the classes to be distributed as multivariate normal with different mean vectors and common covariance, maximum likelihood estimates are given for the expected proportions of objects associated with different classes, using the Bayes procedure for classification of individuals obtained from these classes. An approximate solution for simultaneous confidence intervals on these proportions is given, and thereby a sample-size needed to achieve a desired amount of accuracy for the estimates is determined.
Chhikara, R. S.↗
Spaceflight tracking and data network operational reliability computer output for MTBF and availability. Appendix V to CSC-1-395
Tables of data are provided to show the availability of Skylab data to selected ground stations during the phases of Skylab preflight, Skylab unmanned condition, and Skylab manned condition. The mean time between failure (MTBF) of the same Skylab functions is tabulated for the selected ground stations. All reliability data are based on a 90 percent confidence interval.
Seneca, V. I.↗
Monitoring irrigated land acreage using LANDSAT imagery: An application example
A demonstration of the utility of LANDSAT imagery for quickly and cheaply estimating irrigated land area was conducted in the Klamath River basin of Oregon. LANDSAT color composite images, at 1:250,000 scale and acquired on two dates during the 1975 growing season, were interpreted. Irrigated lands were delineated manually, and the irrigated area was estimated, based on dot-grid sampling of the manually delineated lands. The image interpretation estimate of irrigated area was then adjusted by a comparison of interpretation results with ground data on 45 sample plots, each 2.6 square kilometers in size. Two interpreters independently estimated the irrigated area. Their adjusted estimates were 115,000 hectares and 108,000 hectares respectively, with corresponding 95 percent confidence intervals of + or - 7,880 hectares and + or - 14,000 hectares.
Draeger, W. C.↗
Cross correlation anomaly detection system
This invention provides a method for automatically inspecting the surface of an object, such as an integrated circuit chip, whereby the data obtained by the light reflected from the surface, caused by a scanning light beam, is automatically compared with data representing acceptable values for each unique surface. A signal output provided indicated of acceptance or rejection of the chip. Acceptance is based on predetermined statistical confidence intervals calculated from known good regions of the object being tested, or their representative values. The method can utilize a known good chip, a photographic mask from which the I.C. was fabricated, or a computer stored replica of each pattern being tested.
Micka, E. Z.↗
Using Landsat data to estimate evapotranspiration of winter wheat
Results obtained from an evapotranspiration model as applied to Kansas winter wheatfields were compared with results determined by a weighing lysimeter, and the standard deviation was found to be less than 0.5 mm/day (however, the 95% confidence interval was between plus and minus 0.2 mm/day). Model inputs are solar radiation, temperature, precipitation, and leaf area index; an equation was developed to estimate the leaf area index from Landsat data. The model provides estimates of transpiration, evaporation, and soil moisture.
Kanemasu, E. T.↗
Use of Landsat multispectral imagery in estimating snow areal extent and snow water content cost-effectively
Landsat color composites are used in conjunction with a limited amount of aerial survey data and ground-truth measurements in order to estimate snow areal extent and snow water content. The snow water content estimations are based on the inexpensive Landsat data and the much more expensively obtained information on ground snow courses. A cost-effectiveness analysis of the procedures showed the expenses involved in obtaining confidence intervals of 80, 90, 95 and 99% for the estimates.
Khorram, S.↗
On-orbit spacecraft reliability
Operational and historic data for 350 spacecraft from 52 U.S. space programs were analyzed for on-orbit reliability. Failure rates estimates are made for on-orbit operation of spacecraft subsystems, components, and piece parts, as well as estimates of failure probability for the same elements during launch. Confidence intervals for both parameters are also given. The results indicate that: (1) the success of spacecraft operation is only slightly affected by most reported incidents of anomalous behavior; (2) the occurrence of the majority of anomalous incidents could have been prevented piror to launch; (3) no detrimental effect of spacecraft dormancy is evident; (4) cycled components in general are not demonstrably less reliable than uncycled components; and (5) application of product assurance elements is conductive to spacecraft success.
Bloomquist, C.↗
Nonresonance rotation of Venus
Radar observations accumulated over the past 14 yr are used to make a precise estimate of the spin vector of Venus. The results obtained show that the spin vector of Venus may be adequately described in the standard 1950.0 coordinate system by a period of 243.01 + or - 0.03 days (retrograde) and a north pole direction corresponding to alpha = 272.8 + or - 0.5 deg and delta = 67.2 + or - 0.3 deg; the quoted errors represent estimates of 70% confidence intervals. The angular separations between the spin vector and those vectors representing the unit normals to the invariable plane of the solar system and the orbital plane of Venus are found to be 0.5 deg and 2.6 deg, respectively. It is concluded that Venus is not rotating with a resonance spin period relative to the orbit of earth and that the spin of Venus may be in a generalized Cassini state.
Shapiro, I. I.↗
Extreme Mean and Its Applications
Extreme value statistics obtained from normally distributed data are considered. An extreme mean is defined as the mean of p-th probability truncated normal distribution. An unbiased estimate of this extreme mean and its large sample distribution are derived. The distribution of this estimate even for very large samples is found to be nonnormal. Further, as the sample size increases, the variance of the unbiased estimate converges to the Cramer-Rao lower bound. The computer program used to obtain the density and distribution functions of the standardized unbiased estimate, and the confidence intervals of the extreme mean for any data are included for ready application. An example is included to demonstrate the usefulness of extreme mean application.
Swaroop, R.↗
Estimation procedures to measure and monitor failure rates of components during thermal-vacuum testing
Estimation procedures are described for measuring component failure rates, for comparing the failure rates of two different groups of components, and for formulating confidence intervals for testing hypotheses (based on failure rates) that the two groups perform similarly or differently. Appendix A contains an example of an analysis in which these methods are applied to investigate the characteristics of two groups of spacecraft components. The estimation procedures are adaptable to system level testing and to monitoring failure characteristics in orbit.
Williams, R. E.↗
Elevation of a cane-growing area of the state of Sao Paulo using LANDSAT data
Images at a scale of 1:250.000 were visually interpreted for identification and area estimates of sugar cane plantations in Sao Paulo. The basic criteria for crop identification were the spectral characteristics of channels 5 and 7 and their temporal variations observed from different LANDSAT passes. Using this technique, it was possible to map the sugar cane areas as well as the sugar cane already harvested. An area of 801,950 hectares was estimated within the study area. The confidence interval of correct classification ranged from 87.11% to 94.71%.
Dejesusparada, N.↗
A single-channel model does not predict visibility of asynchronous gratings
A single channel model is shown to lack the capability to predict the visibility of asynchronous compound gratings. A constant Beta was assumed, based on Monte-Carlo simulations, and used to show that an SE of 6.73 (Limb, 1981) lies outside of an acceptable confidence interval. Potential imbalances between two eyes cannot be as large as 1.5 dB, which can only affect one eye, or one region of a retina. An average unbalance of 0.53 dB (SE = 0.12) employed in experiments to measure thresholds was compensated for by estimated threshold reductions. Trial-to-trial variability was included in the single channel model, as were considerations of retinal inhomogeneity. Temporal sensitivity for 2 and 4 c/deg grating patches were measured, and the amplitude response of a single channel at the two spatial frequencies was obtained. Threshold reductions with a Beta of 3.1 are then determined to not be significant enough to warrant adoption of the single channel model predictions.
Watson, A. B.↗
Estimation of irrigated land using Landsat digital data
Techniques developed by the University of California and NASA for the utilization of multitemporal Landsat digital data in estimating and mapping irrigated land are presented. Three dates of Landsat were registered to each other and to a USGS 7.5 minute quadrangle map base for approximately 1.9 million acres of land. Other data registered include county boundaries, land use stratification, and digitized ground data. To identify irrigated land, an indicator was used which consisted of the ratio of MSS Band 7 to MSS Band 5 (the 7/5 ratio). A threshold 7/5 irrigated land value was determined for each date, as actively growing land generally has a higher 7/5 ratio than other cover classes. An estimate of irrigated land was determined by Landsat classification with ground data, at a relative standard error of + or - 7.98% at the 95% confidence interval. Mapping evaluation reveals a 94% accuracy, a 7.4% omission rate, and a 6.3% commission rate. In addition, a sample unit size evaluation recommends a 1-1 1/2 square mile sample range.
Brown, C. E.↗
Aspects of clear air turbulence severity forecasting and detection
Factors influencing the accuracy of the forecasts of incidences of clear air turbulence (CAT) are discussed, along with techniques for improved verification. Descriptive ranking terms for the intensity of CAT events, ranging from light to extreme, are developed, and meteorological parameters used for predictions are reviewed, including jetstream core location, vertical and horizontal wind shears, stable layers, tropopause height, trough speed, 500-mb vorticity, surface fronts, pressure centers and cyclogenesis, and wind speeds near mountain ridges. Methods of remote detection of CAT, particularly by using radiometry sensitive to the IR water vapor band, are noted to have had some success in detecting actual CAT events and decreasing false alarms. Statistical aspects of CAT encounter severity are discussed, including the establishment of confidence intervals for thresholds of detection of CATs of varying intensities.
Ehernberger, L. J.↗